You can always easily mark this out as a grift. For this news in particular, the very first mentions of it always included "Is about to release a book about this" in the third or fourth paragraph,...
You can always easily mark this out as a grift.
For this news in particular, the very first mentions of it always included "Is about to release a book about this" in the third or fourth paragraph, and tadaaaah, now you know it's a grift.
Another classic Steve Novella takedown. The day that I take one of these UFO 'whistleblowers' seriously is the day that one of them brings some hard evidence to the table, and not a minute before.
Another classic Steve Novella takedown. The day that I take one of these UFO 'whistleblowers' seriously is the day that one of them brings some hard evidence to the table, and not a minute before.
My father is way down into the weeds on the ufo kook train, so I make an effort to keep up and be informed on what's going on. I've found Mick West's videos to be particularly helpful in assessing...
My father is way down into the weeds on the ufo kook train, so I make an effort to keep up and be informed on what's going on. I've found Mick West's videos to be particularly helpful in assessing the claims of these kinds of people, and he seems like a great skeptic mind in the skeptic community.
Another thing that doesn't always get brought up: we have these aliens all over the place, right? And they must have FTL travel. So they come all the way over to a galactic backwater and just...
Another thing that doesn't always get brought up: we have these aliens all over the place, right? And they must have FTL travel. So they come all the way over to a galactic backwater and just crash all the time? And never bother to recover the wreckage or remains?
It's just too weird to be plausible. I'm not denying that aliens exist – they probably do, of course. But I'll believe it when I talk to one.
Not particularly commenting on the whistleblower guy in particular, because he's expressly claimed there are 'pilots', but there is a viable scenario in my mind where this does kind of make sense:...
Not particularly commenting on the whistleblower guy in particular, because he's expressly claimed there are 'pilots', but there is a viable scenario in my mind where this does kind of make sense: unmanned probes. In all honesty, it doesn't particularly take much of a stretch to take this to a scenario where there are unmanned probes with 'pilots' as well.
We're currently at a point where we can 3D print things reasonably well, and we could probably clone humans without too much trouble if we decided to disregard ethical issues. We also have rudimentary AI. Hypothetically, a more advanced civilization could send an unmanned, AI driven probe with facilities to manufacture exploratory craft on arrival, and potentially to even print biological constructs as well.
In my mind this kinda makes the most sense, as odds are whatever's out there would be adapted to its own planet, and building biology and craft to spec with a mixture of materials you sent on a probe and local materials solves several pesky space exploration problems: you don't have to send your own people and worry about your compatibility with an alien biosphere, you don't have to worry about contamination (either way), and you can take as long getting somewhere as you feel like.
This would also neatly explain (if true) why crashed craft aren't retrieved. If $civilization doesn't have some kind of "Prime Directive" and all of the UFOs are just automatically provisioned, losing one isn't that big of a deal, you'd just churn out another and carry on.
Note that I am generally a skeptic and don't seriously believe aliens have been to earth. I have no involvement in UFO communities. That out of the way, the most likely reason I could think for...
Note that I am generally a skeptic and don't seriously believe aliens have been to earth. I have no involvement in UFO communities.
That out of the way, the most likely reason I could think for why they'd never retrieve wreckage or remains would be that they're not nearly as advanced as fiction portrays, and so they don't have FTL travel and trips are usually one-way. We've had plenty of movies with humans going on one-way trips into space for exploration purposes, as well as a history of humans going on fatal expeditions on our own planet where the wreckage and remains are too remote and treacherous to retrieve. There's no solid reason to think aliens would be different. They could easily be in the early stages of space exploration, maybe even at the same level as us.
If any aliens did visit Earth, I suspect: A) they'd be researchers scouting a distant planet with confirmed life; B) they're explorers in the same vein as the olden days who go on expeditions into largely uncharted territory, thus limiting ability to actively track them; or C) it's a Krypton scenario where their planet died and they need a new home, so there's no one left to retrieve or rescue them.
Retrieval would also depend on other aliens knowing about the crash. Chances are they wouldn't have technology able to transmit across multiple galaxies instantly, and it would also take time to prepare and send a rescue mission. Even if there were multiple ships traveling together who could respond faster, they might just abandon the wreckage and focus on retrieving survivors. They'd presumably have limited space, so hauling heavy wreckage and bodies would be a low priority. Humans follow the same pattern when a ship sinks or someone dies on an expedition. Survivors first, then return for other stuff later if possible.
So I do think an alien spaceship crashing on Earth and being left to be found by humans is actually fairly plausible. That said: yeah no, it's no where near as common as most UFO theorists claim. Space travel is a cumbersome process, and I doubt they'd regularly visit Earth for a weekend trip.
I can imagine maybe one or two crashes being real, and by that I mean throughout all of human history. Definitely not dozens or hundreds just within the last 70 years or so, since the UFO craze began. So it's possible, just radically unlikely.
The logistics and physics of the matter just simply dictate that there’s no real possibility for aliens to come here specifically because they know there’s intelligence on this planet. We simply...
The logistics and physics of the matter just simply dictate that there’s no real possibility for aliens to come here specifically because they know there’s intelligence on this planet. We simply haven’t existed for long enough for any possible evidence of us to be able to be seen any significant distance.
Even if wormhole travel was possible, you still need to know to come here.
IF aliens have been here, then they’ve most likely come due to some type of Kepler like study of theirs that identified the earth as being inside of the Goldilocks zone, possibly with some more information about the composition of the atmosphere, surface, density and maybe some idea of mineral composition.
Space travel also needs energy, a lot of it. So they would have to either carry it with them, or carry some device that is able to collect energy. IMO this precludes most small craft, unless they are sent on a one what journey with the energy for their journey being expended on the sending side.
I agree with your argument, but just need to point out that there is no way they'd be visiting from another galaxy in your scenarios. Maybe a couple of stars away at most. Even at 1000x FTL it...
transmit across multiple galaxies instantly
I agree with your argument, but just need to point out that there is no way they'd be visiting from another galaxy in your scenarios. Maybe a couple of stars away at most. Even at 1000x FTL it would take thousands of years to reach Andromeda, and there's no way you'd be able to spot habitable planets with 2.5million years of latency.
Regardless of whether the alien angle is true, it's a quite concerning story in general. For a guy with those creds to come out and say "there is a huge coverup with alien spaceships" and go to...
Regardless of whether the alien angle is true, it's a quite concerning story in general. For a guy with those creds to come out and say "there is a huge coverup with alien spaceships" and go to Congress about it, to me means he is probably reasonably serious about it and does believe himself.
To me this means that either a) what he says is true, or b) he has been misinformed by people working on programs while he was doing stuff with the UAP taskforce. If he has been fed misinformation to the point he believes aliens are totes real guys, honest - why would someone do that?
Realistically, if you wanted to cover up something real bad, like an illegal SAP, the best thing to tell people you were doing would be something dumb like "oh we retrieve crashed UFOs and it's off the books", cause if they decide to go public with that then they immediately sound like they've lost their mind and nobody would then look into your illegal SAP.
There's probably a coverup here, but the question is: what's being covered up?
Or d) he is suffering some kind of mental health episode including delusions, paranoia, and/or hallucinations. But I agree I think it’s c). Some people will do almost anything for their 5 minutes...
Or d) he is suffering some kind of mental health episode including delusions, paranoia, and/or hallucinations. But I agree I think it’s c). Some people will do almost anything for their 5 minutes of fame
There is usually a pretty large cost incurred from kicking up a stink and wasting congressional time with claims like these surely? I’m not American so might be wrong but at least over this side...
There is usually a pretty large cost incurred from kicking up a stink and wasting congressional time with claims like these surely? I’m not American so might be wrong but at least over this side of the pond you could be held in contempt of Parliament for doing something like alleging a bunch of unfounded stuff needed to be investigated by lawmakers so you could sell a book.
e: also the fact he does have a whistleblower complaint that says he's suffered reprisals about coming forward with this stuff, which was determined 'credible and urgent'. It's important to note that the response to that complaint says nothing about the validity of what he's saying, but he has at least pissed some people off in the intelligence community by saying it.
For those who prefer written form, Steven wrote a post about this earlier in the month. His blog is always worth following if you're interested in technology and energy news, since he focuses on...
For those who prefer written form, Steven wrote a post about this earlier in the month. His blog is always worth following if you're interested in technology and energy news, since he focuses on scientific accuracy and sets realistic expectations.
Of course the Skeptic's Guide podcast is also excellent every week.
The answer to that question is never going to be “yes.” The UFO scene is grifters all the way down.
I totally agree as does Dr. Novella on the video. He makes some great points.
Never say never, the "Men in Black" movie gave us plebs a lot of hope!
Betteridge's law...
You can always easily mark this out as a grift.
For this news in particular, the very first mentions of it always included "Is about to release a book about this" in the third or fourth paragraph, and tadaaaah, now you know it's a grift.
It's all BS until we get an HD photo or video. Until that comes out it's grift and noise.
Another classic Steve Novella takedown. The day that I take one of these UFO 'whistleblowers' seriously is the day that one of them brings some hard evidence to the table, and not a minute before.
My father is way down into the weeds on the ufo kook train, so I make an effort to keep up and be informed on what's going on. I've found Mick West's videos to be particularly helpful in assessing the claims of these kinds of people, and he seems like a great skeptic mind in the skeptic community.
Another thing that doesn't always get brought up: we have these aliens all over the place, right? And they must have FTL travel. So they come all the way over to a galactic backwater and just crash all the time? And never bother to recover the wreckage or remains?
It's just too weird to be plausible. I'm not denying that aliens exist – they probably do, of course. But I'll believe it when I talk to one.
Not particularly commenting on the whistleblower guy in particular, because he's expressly claimed there are 'pilots', but there is a viable scenario in my mind where this does kind of make sense: unmanned probes. In all honesty, it doesn't particularly take much of a stretch to take this to a scenario where there are unmanned probes with 'pilots' as well.
We're currently at a point where we can 3D print things reasonably well, and we could probably clone humans without too much trouble if we decided to disregard ethical issues. We also have rudimentary AI. Hypothetically, a more advanced civilization could send an unmanned, AI driven probe with facilities to manufacture exploratory craft on arrival, and potentially to even print biological constructs as well.
In my mind this kinda makes the most sense, as odds are whatever's out there would be adapted to its own planet, and building biology and craft to spec with a mixture of materials you sent on a probe and local materials solves several pesky space exploration problems: you don't have to send your own people and worry about your compatibility with an alien biosphere, you don't have to worry about contamination (either way), and you can take as long getting somewhere as you feel like.
This would also neatly explain (if true) why crashed craft aren't retrieved. If $civilization doesn't have some kind of "Prime Directive" and all of the UFOs are just automatically provisioned, losing one isn't that big of a deal, you'd just churn out another and carry on.
Note that I am generally a skeptic and don't seriously believe aliens have been to earth. I have no involvement in UFO communities.
That out of the way, the most likely reason I could think for why they'd never retrieve wreckage or remains would be that they're not nearly as advanced as fiction portrays, and so they don't have FTL travel and trips are usually one-way. We've had plenty of movies with humans going on one-way trips into space for exploration purposes, as well as a history of humans going on fatal expeditions on our own planet where the wreckage and remains are too remote and treacherous to retrieve. There's no solid reason to think aliens would be different. They could easily be in the early stages of space exploration, maybe even at the same level as us.
If any aliens did visit Earth, I suspect: A) they'd be researchers scouting a distant planet with confirmed life; B) they're explorers in the same vein as the olden days who go on expeditions into largely uncharted territory, thus limiting ability to actively track them; or C) it's a Krypton scenario where their planet died and they need a new home, so there's no one left to retrieve or rescue them.
Retrieval would also depend on other aliens knowing about the crash. Chances are they wouldn't have technology able to transmit across multiple galaxies instantly, and it would also take time to prepare and send a rescue mission. Even if there were multiple ships traveling together who could respond faster, they might just abandon the wreckage and focus on retrieving survivors. They'd presumably have limited space, so hauling heavy wreckage and bodies would be a low priority. Humans follow the same pattern when a ship sinks or someone dies on an expedition. Survivors first, then return for other stuff later if possible.
So I do think an alien spaceship crashing on Earth and being left to be found by humans is actually fairly plausible. That said: yeah no, it's no where near as common as most UFO theorists claim. Space travel is a cumbersome process, and I doubt they'd regularly visit Earth for a weekend trip.
I can imagine maybe one or two crashes being real, and by that I mean throughout all of human history. Definitely not dozens or hundreds just within the last 70 years or so, since the UFO craze began. So it's possible, just radically unlikely.
The logistics and physics of the matter just simply dictate that there’s no real possibility for aliens to come here specifically because they know there’s intelligence on this planet. We simply haven’t existed for long enough for any possible evidence of us to be able to be seen any significant distance.
Even if wormhole travel was possible, you still need to know to come here.
IF aliens have been here, then they’ve most likely come due to some type of Kepler like study of theirs that identified the earth as being inside of the Goldilocks zone, possibly with some more information about the composition of the atmosphere, surface, density and maybe some idea of mineral composition.
Space travel also needs energy, a lot of it. So they would have to either carry it with them, or carry some device that is able to collect energy. IMO this precludes most small craft, unless they are sent on a one what journey with the energy for their journey being expended on the sending side.
I agree with your argument, but just need to point out that there is no way they'd be visiting from another galaxy in your scenarios. Maybe a couple of stars away at most. Even at 1000x FTL it would take thousands of years to reach Andromeda, and there's no way you'd be able to spot habitable planets with 2.5million years of latency.
Regardless of whether the alien angle is true, it's a quite concerning story in general. For a guy with those creds to come out and say "there is a huge coverup with alien spaceships" and go to Congress about it, to me means he is probably reasonably serious about it and does believe himself.
To me this means that either a) what he says is true, or b) he has been misinformed by people working on programs while he was doing stuff with the UAP taskforce. If he has been fed misinformation to the point he believes aliens are totes real guys, honest - why would someone do that?
Realistically, if you wanted to cover up something real bad, like an illegal SAP, the best thing to tell people you were doing would be something dumb like "oh we retrieve crashed UFOs and it's off the books", cause if they decide to go public with that then they immediately sound like they've lost their mind and nobody would then look into your illegal SAP.
There's probably a coverup here, but the question is: what's being covered up?
I don't see how
C.) He's writing a book, planning on selling it, and also getting attention from this
isn't at least the occam's razor here.
Or d) he is suffering some kind of mental health episode including delusions, paranoia, and/or hallucinations. But I agree I think it’s c). Some people will do almost anything for their 5 minutes of fame
There is usually a pretty large cost incurred from kicking up a stink and wasting congressional time with claims like these surely? I’m not American so might be wrong but at least over this side of the pond you could be held in contempt of Parliament for doing something like alleging a bunch of unfounded stuff needed to be investigated by lawmakers so you could sell a book.
e: also the fact he does have a whistleblower complaint that says he's suffered reprisals about coming forward with this stuff, which was determined 'credible and urgent'. It's important to note that the response to that complaint says nothing about the validity of what he's saying, but he has at least pissed some people off in the intelligence community by saying it.
For those who prefer written form, Steven wrote a post about this earlier in the month. His blog is always worth following if you're interested in technology and energy news, since he focuses on scientific accuracy and sets realistic expectations.
Of course the Skeptic's Guide podcast is also excellent every week.