Good time to buy a gas/diesel car (in the EU)?
I sold off my last ICE car almost a decade ago, moved to the EU, and I've subsisted on public transportation ever since. Never thought I'd even consider buying another one.
However, the last year or so, I've been anticipating needing to buy a car, at least temporarily (the next 2-4 years or so), and I was just starting to semi-seriously window-shop EVs over here (in Germany), when the whole Iran thing started.
Now, I'm not sure, but I'm starting to think that it might be a good idea to buy a cheap used petrol or diesel car, use it, then re-sell it in a couple of years after I'm done with it (assuming it's still worth anything at that point).
I'm targeting a purchase somewhere around 3-6 months from now, and in the 3,000-6,000 Euro price range. I'd happily go higher for an EV, but not the literally 4x higher (15,000-20,000 Euros minimum) that I'd need to shell out for even a barely feasible new EV. I might or might not be eligible for a decent ~5k Euro govt subsidy on a new EV -- but my 15-20k estimate is assuming I get the 5k discount, which I might not qualify for anything at all.
My thinking is that decent used ICE vehicles are about to become very cheap and easy to find, while good used EVs are going to become vanishingly rare, and new ones are well beyond my target price range. And yeah, gas/diesel prices are nuts right now, and I know they're not coming down any time soon. Even if the war magically ends tomorrow, it'll be a gradual, months-long decline in prices to--let's face it--a couple years before we see pre-war prices again, if ever.
Very roughly speaking, my use-case is going to be infrequent, intermittent, high-intensity usage. Like, the car may be parked for one month, then I'll add 3000-4000 km to it the next month, then parked again for a month or two, etc. So even before, I was anticipating some difficulties with charging the EV during the long-distance high-usage periods. Now, even with the fuel price hike, I'm thinking it's a better deal for me to go with a dino car.
Thoughts?
Last I heard used EVs were just about starting to enter the market. But, I haven't kept a close eye on the market either.
Having said that, for your use case sitting still for months might be more problematic with EVs and dead batteries.
What you might want to take in consideration are city centers and adjacent neighborhoods. In plenty of EU cities these are increasingly environmental zones where not all cars are allowed. The older the dino car is the more likely that you will not be allowed to enter them. With diesel cars that is even more likely.
Let's say 6,000€ is your budget and you average 1.5 months downtime, making for 4 usage periods over one year. You can rent a car with unlimited monthly mileage for 568€ per month (or 2,272€ for your annual periodicity) and not have to worry about long-term parking, cleaning, maintenance, or theft during the off-periods. After 3 years you'll be at 6,816€, which is a bit above your max budget, and is likely a wash after you factor parking (20/month = 80€ * 3 = 120€), cleaning, and maintenance (50/month = 200€ * 3 = 600€). The nice thing about renting is that you can pick an EV at any point for your next monthly ride, reducing fuel costs.
You'll still need something for short trips, but that's an easier and less expensive problem to solve than month-long road trips.
This is the way. My household gave up owning a car 15 years ago, and it's been a great choice for us. When there are backpacking or rock climbing trips up into the mountains, we can rent a vehicle that meets the needs of the moment rather than making do with the car we might've had for city driving, and it's notably cheaper than maintaining a car.
Maybe this depends on where you are and the rental cars in your area. Last time my family tried to rent a car to meet the needs of a trip, we needed all wheel drive (for getting through a pass with weather control in Colorado). The only way to guarantee an AWD or 4WD vehicle was to upgrade to the highest rental level and get a jeep. Ended up costing an extra $300 or so on top of the normal price for a 3 day rental. Every other pricing tier was advertised as, for example "Toyota RAV4 or similar". If you look into what they define as "or similar", about half of the models were 2WD. Only the Jeep tier didn't have an "or similar" clause that would have left us stranded.
I'm sure this is great advice if you plan to stay on paved roads without winter weather, but that doesn't apply to everyone.
With economic uncertainty, I wouldn’t bet on people suddenly buying new EVs and selling their ICE cars. But if you are looking for an affordable second hand car, you can easily find well maintained ICE cars in Germany. I’m not sure I would be interested in a diesel car. I’d check the environmental zones in cities and places you’re planning on visiting, because you’ll want a car that is actually allowed on the road. And why not get a Miata? You know it is always the right answer.
You could try a second-hand lpg car, like the the Chevrolet Spark (dual fuel). Otherwise, a cheap gas car doesn't sound like a bad idea, just wouldn't do diesel because that is even more volitile.
One more question, how far do you need to go when you drive? If its many infrequent trips, an EV suddenly becomes more interesting as well because many people have huge range anxiety.
Edit: read over the part where you say you drive long-distance, what are we talking about?
Still not sure of the details, but roughly, expecting periodic long trips halfway across the EU, perhaps something like 1000-2000 km one way, then infrequent, intermittent "normal" short trips here and there, at each destination, then back again 1-2 months later. It's those long cross-country hikes that are feasible with an EV, but would be more convenient with an ICE car.
Ah, I understand. They are absolutely feasible with an EV (I have done my fair share), but not budget EVs (e.g., less than ~300-400 km practical range) which was what I was getting at.
You can't time the market. Don't try to time the market. If you see them going down, you may consider buying one. Don't assume any direction their value will take afterwards.
I’d steer clear of diesel (polluting, many cities forbid these vehicles from entering, fuel price is insane right now)
Instead, I’d consider an older gasoline car because they can usually run fine with a mixture of ethanol (or even pure ethanol sometimes) without modification.
I don’t know if you have e85 where you live, but here it’s 3x cheaper than regular gasoline. My car won’t do 100% without modifications I’m not willing to do but it runs just fine on 50% ethanol and 50% e10.
The trick is to gradually increase the e85 portion and watch your LTFT with a cheap OBD scanner to find the max ratio your car can use and then dial back a notch so you never have issues.