Overzeetop's recent activity

  1. Comment on A second coronavirus death surge is coming in ~health.coronavirus

    Overzeetop
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    I wouldn't even consider estimating out past 1-2 weeks. Their curves look very nice, but there are too many inputs/variables to effectively account for. And I don't mean that we shouldn't be doing...

    I wouldn't even consider estimating out past 1-2 weeks. Their curves look very nice, but there are too many inputs/variables to effectively account for. And I don't mean that we shouldn't be doing projections, or that we can't run simulations for an n-dimensional problem (Though the visualization of such a condition would be challenging. if not impossible).

    The biggest threat is that people are impatient. They see days or weeks as proof of a trend, whereas the ebb and flow of this virus propagation (from patient zero to death-rate trends) is on the order of months. It's a control system with a feedback loop that has a reaction time of weeks and data which is incomplete and full of noise.

    4 votes
  2. Comment on A second coronavirus death surge is coming in ~health.coronavirus

    Overzeetop
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    18±4 day lag from infection tracking to death tracking - https://imgur.com/gallery/6uTvXCh I only did three states a week ago but and Arizona has the same cycle. I didn't have the second death...

    18±4 day lag from infection tracking to death tracking - https://imgur.com/gallery/6uTvXCh

    I only did three states a week ago but and Arizona has the same cycle. I didn't have the second death jump in Florida to chart, so I left it as ?? and called a spike starting 7/12. It might have started a day or two early.

    5 votes
  3. Comment on My take on email in ~tech

    Overzeetop
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    I would tend to agree, but the flaw is rarely a concern. Nearly all secure communication is now handled through side channels - such as secure messaging for financial accounts. In that case, email...

    I would tend to agree, but the flaw is rarely a concern. Nearly all secure communication is now handled through side channels - such as secure messaging for financial accounts. In that case, email has become a notification channel, or aggregator, rather than a direct communication medium. In this way it is very similar to snailmail - anyone seeing your mail can see the return address; the email is just a wrapper for a secure channel.

  4. Comment on 2K Games breaks gaming's de facto $60 (USD) price ceiling, announces MSRP for next-gen NBA 2K21 as $70 in ~games

    Overzeetop
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    Yeah, this is the same thing we said about cable TV back in the day. It's was okay that they charged more, and increased their rates regularly, because cable channels didn't have commercials.

    I'm not opposed to games going up in MSRP to account for increased production costs, inflation, etc., if it means they can dial back on the microtransactions, DLC, and cosmetic items that have filled up games increasingly this past decade to generate that extra revenue.

    Yeah, this is the same thing we said about cable TV back in the day. It's was okay that they charged more, and increased their rates regularly, because cable channels didn't have commercials.

    3 votes
  5. Comment on What's a dish you've made that you're most proud of? in ~food

    Overzeetop
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    I'd say revenge. I prefer to serve it cold.

    I'd say revenge. I prefer to serve it cold.

    4 votes
  6. Comment on How many hours per day are you working? in ~life

    Overzeetop
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    I'm at my desk ten hours a day, typically, five days a week. In a productive week I have 25-30 billable hours (actual time working on design or actively writing a report). I don't count...

    I'm at my desk ten hours a day, typically, five days a week. In a productive week I have 25-30 billable hours (actual time working on design or actively writing a report). I don't count phone/email inquiries, writing proposals, answering general questions, reading trade articles, cleaning, filing, or arguing with people on reddit.

    2 votes
  7. Comment on Apple plans to announce move to its own Mac chips at WWDC in ~tech

    Overzeetop
    Link Parent
    I'd say that software providers will be against this - having to port all of their code over. But the up side is that you get to dispose of all the users on legacy perpetual licenses, making the...

    I'd say that software providers will be against this - having to port all of their code over. But the up side is that you get to dispose of all the users on legacy perpetual licenses, making the new ports subscription only.
    (and, yes, this makes me sad/angry)

    2 votes
  8. Comment on Thermoelectric stoves: Ditch the solar panels? in ~enviro

    Overzeetop
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    Well, if you're looking for a really expensive way to power your electronics with all the downsides of solar then it's a great idea. You just steal 5% of your heat and turn it into electricity....

    Well, if you're looking for a really expensive way to power your electronics with all the downsides of solar then it's a great idea. You just steal 5% of your heat and turn it into electricity. Unless Google lied to me, efficient TE systems are in the $10/watt range in large quantity, not including fuel or battery storage. Solar is $5/W not including battery storage.

    Both require special conditions for power generation (stove/heater running or sun shining). Both require batteries because you can't/don't run those items 24/7. So you're paying twice as much for the system and you get an extra 5% particulate pollution to boot.

    I love Peltier coolers/TE generators - I've played with them on and off since the 90s. They're very cool tech, and maybe useful as a supplemental source in some locations - or possibly in conjunction with solar - but this application just seems like an expensive way to avoid solar and sell more batteries (since the only time you would have power outside of the heating season is during cooking).

    2 votes
  9. Comment on Four major US publishers sue Internet Archive for copyright infringement, alleging that it has illegally offered more than a million scanned works to the public in ~books

    Overzeetop
    Link Parent
    Cataloging and storing written materials and allowing anyone who asks to view them is exactly what libraries do. You have conflated viewing with copying. Anything else is just pedantic discussion...

    Cataloging and storing written materials and allowing anyone who asks to view them is exactly what libraries do.

    You have conflated viewing with copying. Anything else is just pedantic discussion regarding "distribution" and "reproduction" and the legal vs practical aspects of what makes the entire internet possible.

    2 votes
  10. Comment on Reverse engineering a £339 5G bioshield in ~tech

    Overzeetop
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    The more important question was whether or not you were harmed by 5G radiation while the key was in your possession. I believe that they could, in fact, conclusively say that - while they were in...

    The more important question was whether or not you were harmed by 5G radiation while the key was in your possession. I believe that they could, in fact, conclusively say that - while they were in the range of protection advertised - no harm came to them due to the effects of 5G radiation.

    Boom - 100% effective.

    I wonder if they would have considered it worth the £339 if it had come with a small, anti-tiger rock. Then you'd be safe from both, and that definitely seems worth more than being safe from 5G.

    2 votes
  11. Comment on Bear – Minimal blogging platform in ~comp

    Overzeetop
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    Nice. I'm a fan of simple.

    Nice. I'm a fan of simple.

    3 votes
  12. Comment on This graph shows that measuring #SARSCoV2 levels in municipal sewage almost perfectly predicts forthcoming #COVID19 cases with a full week's notice (R=0.994) in ~health.coronavirus

    Overzeetop
    Link Parent
    It's especially important now, because it means we can deploy PR resources to minimize the negative political impact by discrediting the local authorities before the outbreak picks up steam. We...

    Knowing when things are about to get worse is invaluable, especially right at the start of a big outbreak when many people can spread the disease while having no symptoms.

    It's especially important now, because it means we can deploy PR resources to minimize the negative political impact by discrediting the local authorities before the outbreak picks up steam. We can shuffle people around and change the statistical modeling to prevent what are (clearly) anomalous spikes and keep the economy open.

    sigh Can I just say that I hate the weaponization of information and social media?

    2 votes
  13. Comment on You’re getting used to masks. Will you wear a face shield? in ~health.coronavirus

    Overzeetop
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    Having made a few masks by trial and error I learned that 18ga copper wire (solid, not stranded) works great, but for improvisational purposes, a length of two-conductor bell or garage-door-opener...

    Having made a few masks by trial and error I learned that 18ga copper wire (solid, not stranded) works great, but for improvisational purposes, a length of two-conductor bell or garage-door-opener wire (prob 2 x 20ga with plastic coating) is just about perfect as well.

    edit: also, even a good wire is insufficient to seal the nose area, esp. on those of us with big schnozes, though it helps. You really need a foam interface and, if you're breathing heavily, a one way exhalation valve (which usually defeats the purpose of an improvised mask).

    2 votes
  14. Comment on Sweden has revealed that despite adopting more relaxed measures to control coronavirus, by late April only 7.3% of people in Stockholm had developed the antibodies needed to fight the disease in ~health.coronavirus

    Overzeetop
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    I find it (mathematically) interesting that this correlates pretty closely with the NY Metro area numbers - 0.83%. Without question this is affecting the elderly, and they are skewing the overall...

    So out of at least 175 000 cases (but this number is likely to be lower than the actual number) 0.74% died, but as I said that's likely an overestimate.

    I find it (mathematically) interesting that this correlates pretty closely with the NY Metro area numbers - 0.83%.

    Without question this is affecting the elderly, and they are skewing the overall percentages, but that's true of normal influenza as well. I do wonder how the reaction would be different if the age criteria were reversed, with the likelihood of those under 5 years of age having a 1 in 6 change of dying if they contracted it, and those under 15 having a 1 in 20 chance.

    1 vote
  15. Comment on What did you do this weekend? in ~talk

    Overzeetop
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    It's a SunJoe 4001x - maybe 2100psi? Got it for <$150, maybe as a refurb, and it's got a Low and High setting. Low is great for the cars, High is good for light house work, small wood decks, and...

    It's a SunJoe 4001x - maybe 2100psi? Got it for <$150, maybe as a refurb, and it's got a Low and High setting. Low is great for the cars, High is good for light house work, small wood decks, and light cleaning of concrete and masonry.

    For cleaning off the deck and large/dirty masonry gasoline is the way to go. I've got an old Craftsman that's ~3200-3400 psi. It let's me use a wider tip to get more work done and scrape the really tough lichen off the brick on the north side of the house. A good electric will work (something better than my SunJoe), but it'll probably cost as much as a gasoline. Look at flow+pressure. In that way they're like leaf blowers - 200MPH doesn't help you if you're only moving 150CFM.

    3 votes
  16. Comment on What did you do this weekend? in ~talk

    Overzeetop
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    Man, I wish my in-laws were more serious. My FIL had a 3x bypass last year with pulmonary complications, but he's a social butterfly. My MIL would sit inside and watch HGTV all day unless you told...

    Man, I wish my in-laws were more serious. My FIL had a 3x bypass last year with pulmonary complications, but he's a social butterfly. My MIL would sit inside and watch HGTV all day unless you told her she couldn't go out, in which case she has a compulsive need to go shopping. We caught them walking the aisles of the local big-box lumber store because "they were bored and there are so many interesting things to look at". We've stopped doing the shopping for them because suspect they've been doing it themselves and are just making up things on a list for us to get for them.

    If you want a "friendly face" in the galaxy, shoot a FR to Grey Top in Elite. I'm not on all that frequently these days, but you never know. I'm about 1/2 solo and 1/2 open, but will jump into US or EU Mobius group if I see someone I know there.

    5 votes
  17. Comment on Sweden has revealed that despite adopting more relaxed measures to control coronavirus, by late April only 7.3% of people in Stockholm had developed the antibodies needed to fight the disease in ~health.coronavirus

    Overzeetop
    Link Parent
    Numbers being wrong seem to follow this disease everywhere. What did the IFR end up being for Stockholm? 1M residents; 7% (in April?) means 70,000 total infections (all told,...

    Numbers being wrong seem to follow this disease everywhere. What did the IFR end up being for Stockholm?

    1M residents; 7% (in April?) means 70,000 total infections (all told, estimated/extrapolated); 2250 dead (in April) gives a 3% IFR - which is really, really large compared to say 2.7M (Again estimated based on 21% sampled having antibodies...who knows how representative the sample is, though) vs 22,500 around the end of April is more like 0.8%. Bad, but they also had a pretty dense outbreak. [This is a serious response, btw - I would love to get more accurate data, just so I'm not working off of inaccurate numbers. We're all techies; numbers matter.]

    Also, it's true that the elderly will die off of natural causes before the 'rona gets them, but we're also creating "new" elderly each year. My pick-up basketball group likes to remind me of this whenever we play.

    2 votes
  18. Comment on What did you do this weekend? in ~talk

    Overzeetop
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    Finished a project that I started two years ago. Part of my lazy-not-lazy series where I make a ten minute task into a five minute task by spending a hundred hours making the process more...

    Finished a project that I started two years ago. Part of my lazy-not-lazy series where I make a ten minute task into a five minute task by spending a hundred hours making the process more efficient.

    This biennium's completion: pressure washer for the car. To save the time of dragging out the washer and having to put it away, I bought one that could be disassembled from it's frame and mounted on the wall of my garage. With 3D printed brackets. And a modified reel because the one that came with the washer is really, really bad. Then ran a dedicated hose line to it. And added an in-line instant water heater. Which meant running power to the spot, but I didn't have a panel in the right place so I had to run a new sub-panel. With conduit through a 12" thick masonry wall.

    No, I didn't get around to washing the car.

    5 votes
  19. Comment on Sweden has revealed that despite adopting more relaxed measures to control coronavirus, by late April only 7.3% of people in Stockholm had developed the antibodies needed to fight the disease in ~health.coronavirus

    Overzeetop
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    So, by Sweden recommending voluntary distancing, they have found that the virus has successfully spread to over 7% of the population. To put that in perspective, the US would have roughly 25...

    So, by Sweden recommending voluntary distancing, they have found that the virus has successfully spread to over 7% of the population. To put that in perspective, the US would have roughly 25 million people infected at that rate.

    If I did the math right - 10 million Swedes x 0.07 = 700,000 infected. 3800 fatalities / 700,000 infected = 0.0054 or 0.54% IFR. This also appears to be in line with most of the world. It also means that, for Sweden they can expect about 30,000 more people to die before they reach herd immunity, presuming that everyone's antibodies continue to protect them over the time it takes to reach that level. The equivalent in the US, per capita, would be 1.2 million. That doesn't sound so hot.

    Edit: aside from the region difference I missed (assuming the testing numbers were representative of the country) I also mis-represented IFR. IFR is the fatality rate for symptomatic cases, not symptomatic and asymptomatic combined, which is what an accurate antibody test determines. Note I say accurate because it's unclear which tests are accurately showing antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, and which ones are just showing antibodies to any of the 3-4 most common coronavirus variants which are endemic and about 20% of the over-reaching rhinoviruses which are classes by the average human as "the common cold."

    6 votes
  20. Comment on Haven't gamed on a PC for ten years. Built a gaming rig. What games do I install? in ~games

    Overzeetop
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    Whatever you do, do NOT go buy Elite:Dangerous and their expansion pack Horizons and a HOTAS. If you just look at the reviews, you'll see that there is nothing to do in the game. You'll find that...

    Whatever you do, do NOT go buy Elite:Dangerous and their expansion pack Horizons and a HOTAS.

    If you just look at the reviews, you'll see that there is nothing to do in the game. You'll find that most players effectively finished the game and get totally bored with it after just 3000-4000 hours. They still play it, but mostly to complain that there isn't anything to do. People who bought it at launch, four years ago, are barely in it for 10-20 hours a week these days and it's completely, totally not worth the $18 price (when it goes on sale) for both base and expansion pack combined. Totally. Not. Worth. It.

    (if you get it, though, you have to try it in VR. HFS - it's mindblowing the scale, and combat is wild if a bit vertigo inducing at times)

    3 votes