streblo's recent activity
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Comment on US Congress approves bill banning TikTok unless Chinese owner ByteDance sells platform in ~tech
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Comment on Generation Z is unprecedentedly rich in ~finance
streblo LinkOT: Appreciate the interesting article but it's generally a good idea to throw some tags on your submission to serve at least as a starting point otherwise someone else has to at least skim the...OT: Appreciate the interesting article but it's generally a good idea to throw some tags on your submission to serve at least as a starting point otherwise someone else has to at least skim the content and categorize for you. In this case there's several other gen z stories on the front page to serve as an example but usually I will search similar articles if I'm submitting something.
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Comment on China is battening down for the gathering storm over Taiwan in ~misc
streblo Link ParentAbsolutely, also worth pointing out that Studeman was until recently the Director of Intelligence of the United States Indo-Pacific Command. Definitely someone to listen to, but also like you...Absolutely, also worth pointing out that Studeman was until recently the Director of Intelligence of the United States Indo-Pacific Command. Definitely someone to listen to, but also like you suggest it was literally his job to be prepared for the worst case. I'm sure, to some extent, that relies on (over) priming the public/political apparatus.
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Comment on China is battening down for the gathering storm over Taiwan in ~misc
streblo Link ParentIn today's world, ten years is a long time away, it's hard to say what the world will look like at that point. It's already pretty starkly different from ten years ago. I think how involved the US...In today's world, ten years is a long time away, it's hard to say what the world will look like at that point. It's already pretty starkly different from ten years ago.
I think how involved the US will be is a function of a lot of different parameters, but here's the biggest in my opinion:
- How much uptake the isolationist and/or authoritarian-aligned American politicians get. It's a backseat relative to Ukraine and Israel, but you can already see variations of 'why' being invoked under various false pretenses.
- How willing Taiwan is to fight. Kind of an open question, there has been a lot of attention on this in the last couple of years.
- What the status of the American and Chinese semiconductor industry is and how a war with Taiwan would impact each
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Comment on China is battening down for the gathering storm over Taiwan in ~misc
streblo LinkChinese war drums beat on as pundits hotly debate if or when Beijing will try to seize Taiwan by force. There is no apparent countdown to D-day for initiating a blockade or invasion, but major strategic indicators clearly show that General Secretary Xi Jinping is still preparing his country for a showdown. Developments under way suggest Taiwan will face an existential crisis in single-digit years, most likely in the back half of the 2020s or front half of the 2030s.
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China is battening down for the gathering storm over Taiwan
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Comment on Looking for advice on replacing my motherboard in ~tech
streblo (edited )Link ParentIf you're going to buy a new board anyways and if you can get access to a soldering iron from a friend/DIY-type space, it's worth giving it a shot because at that point you're essentially playing...If you're going to buy a new board anyways and if you can get access to a soldering iron from a friend/DIY-type space, it's worth giving it a shot because at that point you're essentially playing with house money. It's not super difficult and worse case scenario you have to buy a new board anyways.
Also, if you do buy a new board, you might have difficulty finding a b450 board for a decent price. Keep in mind you can use a b450/x470/
x570chipset with that CPU (avoid the b550 unless you can return it, any support for Ryzen 2000G series is unofficial) so go with whatever is available and cheap. If there is no price difference, go with thex570x470.Edit: The 2000G is only officially compatible with the b450/x470.
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Comment on Looking for advice on replacing my motherboard in ~tech
streblo LinkIf the board still works fine after it’s sat a bit it sounds like it could just be a busted cap on your board. If you can pop the board out and have a look, check for any capacitors that are...If the board still works fine after it’s sat a bit it sounds like it could just be a busted cap on your board. If you can pop the board out and have a look, check for any capacitors that are bulging/don’t have flat tops. Make a note of the capacitance written on it and you can replace it for a few cents and some solder.
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Comment on Gold is back — and it has a message for us in ~finance
streblo Link ParentWell, first you'd need an alternative. The reason a lot of international money comes into the US is that it's deemed safe for investment. You can be reasonably confident (rogue states aside) that...Although, what do you do if you're worried about the decline of the dollar's dominance globally?
Well, first you'd need an alternative. The reason a lot of international money comes into the US is that it's deemed safe for investment. You can be reasonably confident (rogue states aside) that your investment isn't going to be expropriated. I don't see China offering the same sort of environment in the next few decades.
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Comment on This is a teenager in ~life
streblo Link ParentYea, I'm not sure why they didn't use the same length. But each person column appears to be the same size, so I think it's still fairly intuitive to ascertain the relative size of each cohort. I...Yea, I'm not sure why they didn't use the same length. But each person column appears to be the same size, so I think it's still fairly intuitive to ascertain the relative size of each cohort. I don't think there's any sleight of hand going on or anything.
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Comment on This is a teenager in ~life
streblo LinkPretty neat visualization of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and how adversity in childhood and young adults translates into outcomes as adults.Pretty neat visualization of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and how adversity in childhood and young adults translates into outcomes as adults.
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This is a teenager
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Comment on Ukrainians contemplate the once unthinkable: Losing the war with Russia in ~misc
streblo Link ParentWhy is that? I find your position pretty nonsensical to be honest. Also, I didn't actually add all of Europe, just the top contributors: Country Military Aid, €B Population, millions Germany 17.7...Why is that? I find your position pretty nonsensical to be honest.
Also, I didn't actually add all of Europe, just the top contributors:
Country Military Aid, €B Population, millions Germany 17.7 83.8 UK 9.1 66.97 Denmark 8.4 5.903 Netherlands 4.4 17.7 Norway 3.8 5.457 Poland 3 36.82 Sweden 2 10.49 Finland 1.6 5.556 Top European contributors total: 50€B in committed military aid, 233 million people.
US total: 42.2€B in committed military aid, 333 million people. -
Comment on Ukrainians contemplate the once unthinkable: Losing the war with Russia in ~misc
streblo Link ParentEurope* has actually surpassed the US in 'committed' military aid dollars. If the US doesn't pass more aid, they will pass the US in total military aid delivered to Ukraine this year....and yes the US provided more
Europe* has actually surpassed the US in 'committed' military aid dollars. If the US doesn't pass more aid, they will pass the US in total military aid delivered to Ukraine this year.
https://app.23degrees.io/view/KJpesgWQv1CmxoMr-bar-stacked-horizontal-figure-5_scv
*If you include the UK
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Comment on Ukrainians contemplate the once unthinkable: Losing the war with Russia in ~misc
streblo Link ParentI agree with your general position that trusting American voters is not a reliable foreign policy strategy but I'm not sure why you don't think Europe has also realized this. You can't make these...It's also been 3 years since Ukraine was invaded. Russia has ramped up their military productions; Western Europe has had time to as well.
I agree with your general position that trusting American voters is not a reliable foreign policy strategy but I'm not sure why you don't think Europe has also realized this. You can't make these kinds of adjustments very quickly, but if you look at defence spending in Europe since 2016, it's up pretty consistently across the board and looks to continue to trend that way: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?end=2022&locations=DE-FR-NL-BE-NO-SE-FI-PL-EE-LT-LV-ES-IT-CZ&most_recent_value_desc=true&start=2016
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Comment on Ukrainians contemplate the once unthinkable: Losing the war with Russia in ~misc
streblo Link ParentThis war has definitely woken Europe's sleepy MIC and they've had to make a lot of strides to expand production capacity. When the war started Europe could make about 20,000 shells per month, by...At the moment they've reached the limit of their existing stockpiles and production capacity.
This war has definitely woken Europe's sleepy MIC and they've had to make a lot of strides to expand production capacity. When the war started Europe could make about 20,000 shells per month, by next year it will be approaching 200,000.
What's really lacking is air defense capacity but that's slowly changing as well: https://www.army-technology.com/news/norway-boosts-air-defence-capacity-with-investment-in-nasams-production/
Ultimately I think if the US can get a final big aid package together before the election begins in full Europe will be able to keep Ukraine in the fight indefinitely within a year or so, but it remains to be seen if they can get there.
Edit: wrong link
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Comment on Ukrainians contemplate the once unthinkable: Losing the war with Russia in ~misc
streblo Link ParentThis actually hasn't been true for a while, at least in committed funds, although it's going to take another year or so at the current pace before EU military aid can actually replace US aid and...US aid holdups aside, it’s quite strange to think how little Western Europe as a whole has been contributing. They really shouldn’t be getting dwarfed by the US, when the war is in their doorstep. Russia’s GDP is about where Italy is, alone. Of course, Putin can mobilize the full might of his, but still, add together Western Europe and it’s not particularly close.
This actually hasn't been true for a while, at least in committed funds, although it's going to take another year or so at the current pace before EU military aid can actually replace US aid and even still there will be capability gaps. But EU military aid in dollars is almost on par with US aid now and when you include financial aid it dwarfs US aid.
This is decent overview although it takes a while for the graphs to load on my PC (scroll down): https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/
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Comment on Iran launches dozens of drones toward Israel in ~news
streblo LinkIf Israel chooses to escalate after this extremely-telegraphed almost non-response it could get ugly. There are some big things hanging in the balance: No matter what the US does, the wedge issue...If Israel chooses to escalate after this extremely-telegraphed almost non-response it could get ugly. There are some big things hanging in the balance:
- No matter what the US does, the wedge issue facing Democrats w/ Israel gets worse.
- The window for US aid to Ukraine could effectively close. Patriot ammunition is probably diverted.
Netanyahu holding these keys is pretty gross here, I'm skeptical of the ability for the US to apply sufficient pressure given the last year.
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Comment on Many Americans who recently bought guns open to political violence, survey finds in ~misc
streblo Link ParentI think this is focused on a mostly irrelevant threat. The threat isn't some some faceless, obviously tyrannical government like a foreign occupier that all gun owning citizens are united against....I think this is focused on a mostly irrelevant threat. The threat isn't some some faceless, obviously tyrannical government like a foreign occupier that all gun owning citizens are united against. Instead it's a group of people who have been courting a majority of gun owners for a long time and have an extensive ability to construct narratives these people are susceptible to. All the guns in the world are less than useless in that sort of scenario.
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Comment on Star Wars Outlaws | Official story trailer in ~games
streblo Link ParentIt looks like the season's pass comes with a singular "exclusive mission" available at launch:It looks like the season's pass comes with a singular "exclusive mission" available at launch:
The Star Wars Outlaws Season Pass includes:
Two DLCs that will release after launch: keep exploring the world of Star Wars Outlaws with all-new stories, quests and areas to discover
The "Jabba's Gambit" exclusive mission available at launch
The "Kessel Runner Character Pack" featuring additional cosmetics for Kay and Nix
Which is exactly why they should assume the worst case scenario here. I don't think it strains credulity to suggest that perhaps the reason that anti-government voices are more successful on TikTok relative to other platforms is that they are promoted by design.
Data concerns aside, letting a rival manipulate narratives in your country seems like a terrible idea. It's not unthinkable the US and China find themselves in (at the very least) a cold war in the coming decades. Imagine if one of the major American newspapers in the 30s was run by Nazi Germany, history could look a lot different.