I think this is expected as the convention bump passes. I'm hopeful to see positive outcomes from the debate, especially given how Trump has primarily been ranting lately. But I just don't know. I...
I think this is expected as the convention bump passes. I'm hopeful to see positive outcomes from the debate, especially given how Trump has primarily been ranting lately. But I just don't know.
I have noticed that while my small town has like 2-3 Trump signs (one just went from a small Trump 2024 to a large hand painted Trump Vance one), there's a group doing "Register. pray. vote." signs.
And I think they are significant, because they're not saying vote Trump, they're not in Red or Blue, and I think Christians attending the churches marketing these could be encouraged to vote against Trump under that slogan
The Mormon church issued a statement that can basically be summed up as evaluate candidates carefully and vote based on your values rather than a tradition of supporting one party. Article...
The Mormon church issued a statement that can basically be summed up as evaluate candidates carefully and vote based on your values rather than a tradition of supporting one party.
Is that typical from them being a major denomination or more unusual? I know it's from 23 so not sure it it's a this cycle thing or always a thing. I've never seen these signs here before so I'm...
Is that typical from them being a major denomination or more unusual? I know it's from 23 so not sure it it's a this cycle thing or always a thing.
I've never seen these signs here before so I'm curious if this is new. (They're not from the LDS Church here)
I'm not sure but Utah has been a reliably red state for a long time. Here is a different official letter from 2014 Edit. Here is an article from axios. About Mormons organizing against Trump this...
I'm not sure but Utah has been a reliably red state for a long time.
Hm. Obviously I can't say, and I don't expect Utah to go blue or anything but I think it is an interesting shift from what I've seen at least locally in previous years.
Hm. Obviously I can't say, and I don't expect Utah to go blue or anything but I think it is an interesting shift from what I've seen at least locally in previous years.
I put not much stock in polls in general but yeah it makes sense that she got her whole thing beforehand. The convention felt like it culminated all that.
I put not much stock in polls in general but yeah it makes sense that she got her whole thing beforehand. The convention felt like it culminated all that.
Tomorrow's electoral debate will be make-or-break for Harris. Support plummeted for Biden because the last debate exposed what his critics have been saying for years. He's a senile old man who...
Tomorrow's electoral debate will be make-or-break for Harris. Support plummeted for Biden because the last debate exposed what his critics have been saying for years. He's a senile old man who shouldn't be trusted with the largest economy and second-largest nuclear stockpile in the world, and his performance in that debate showed just how untenable his position was.
My take on Biden's debate performance was more that he doesn't have the strength, energy or focus to be a successful convincing candidate for a new term. When I read the transcript rather than...
My take on Biden's debate performance was more that he doesn't have the strength, energy or focus to be a successful convincing candidate for a new term. When I read the transcript rather than watch, I could see that he made sense. However he let trump guide the conversation and his voice was weak. I don't have doubts about Biden overseeing staff right now. He is aging but not demented.
What do dentures have to do with his last debate performance? Given how poorly it looks like trump takes care of his body, and how good his teeth look I would be willing to guess trump has...
What do dentures have to do with his last debate performance?
Given how poorly it looks like trump takes care of his body, and how good his teeth look I would be willing to guess trump has dentures ( or some kind of other replacement of his teeth ).
I wasn't specifically speaking to the debate performance. Dentures impact how your speech sounds. Combined with the stutter and his age, a lot of his speech patterns get perceived as "dementia"...
I wasn't specifically speaking to the debate performance. Dentures impact how your speech sounds. Combined with the stutter and his age, a lot of his speech patterns get perceived as "dementia" rather than "aged and physically impaired. There's more than a small amount of ageism involved in a lot of the conversation around all of this.
I think they are saying that if Biden wears dentures, it could affect his speech. I suspect that if he has any dental prostheses they are implants, though. The same goes for Trump.
I think they are saying that if Biden wears dentures, it could affect his speech. I suspect that if he has any dental prostheses they are implants, though. The same goes for Trump.
Yet the economy has improved, greatly, under Biden's administration. Unlike felon Trump President Biden hasn't once threatened any nation with a nuclear attack. Also unlike felon Trump, President...
who shouldn't be trusted with the largest economy and second-largest nuclear stockpile in the world
Yet the economy has improved, greatly, under Biden's administration. Unlike felon Trump President Biden hasn't once threatened any nation with a nuclear attack. Also unlike felon Trump, President Biden didn't sell nuclear documents to foreigners either.
This talking point can be yelled from the rooftops every day until the election but the average American doesn't buy it. Trump is going hammer her on the country's economic record under the...
Yet the economy has improved, greatly, under Biden's administration
This talking point can be yelled from the rooftops every day until the election but the average American doesn't buy it. Trump is going hammer her on the country's economic record under the Biden/Harris administration.
Trouble is, barely coherent lies are what a lot of people want to hear right now. I think what propels the Trump train is misplaced anger at being left by society to rot economically, and all the...
Trouble is, barely coherent lies are what a lot of people want to hear right now.
I think what propels the Trump train is misplaced anger at being left by society to rot economically, and all the "number goes up!" crowing in the world won't slow that down a jot.
It doesn't matter if the Biden administration has done a masterful job of steering things back on track (debatable), if improvements in living standards aren't immediate and obviously attributable to their policies. It doesn't matter if the problem Trump's supporters face have been caused by five decades of congressional deregulation and have very little to do with the current administration, or any administration for that matter, because that's just not the way humans think. It's not because nuance is beyond their capacity to entertain, it's because they don't want to entertain it.
This whole mess is down to decades of worsening wealth inequality leading to a climate of anger and distrust, and the people being gulled into believing Trump's bullshit are the types who want nothing more than the complex problems of society to be simplified for them. There are few things in politics that appear as simple as handing over the keys to someone who promises to fix everything with no effort or thought on the part of voters. That's the root of authoritarian sentiment, and pointing at line graphs that say the economy is doing just swell isn't going to address it.
Semi related question: Does anyone know of any polling or other organizations presenting more broadly-based voter sentiment data? What I mean is, data based on more than polls. For example, some...
Semi related question:
Does anyone know of any polling or other organizations presenting more broadly-based voter sentiment data?
What I mean is, data based on more than polls. For example, some kind of validated social media survey, purchasing habits, migrations.
If you're worried about telephone surveys, it looks like polling companies do use Internet apps these days: From Pew Research Center: I don't see how a "validated social media survey" could be...
If you're worried about telephone surveys, it looks like polling companies do use Internet apps these days:
While it took survey researchers some time to adapt to the idea of online surveys, a quick look at the public polls on an issue like presidential approval reveals a landscape now dominated by online polls rather than phone polls.
Most of our U.S. surveys are conducted on the American Trends Panel (ATP), Pew Research Center’s national survey panel of about 10,000 randomly selected U.S. adults. ATP participants are recruited offline using random sampling from the U.S. Postal Service’s residential address file, and respondents are reimbursed for their time. Most panelists complete the surveys online using smartphones, tablets or desktop devices. Non-internet and internet-averse panelists are called by an interviewer to complete surveys on the phone.
I don't see how a "validated social media survey" could be more reliable than this.
While that’s definitely an improvement over phone polling, it’s all about how representative the opinions of the survey takers are of all the other voters (or opinion havers). That’s what the...
While that’s definitely an improvement over phone polling, it’s all about how representative the opinions of the survey takers are of all the other voters (or opinion havers). That’s what the validation is for, demonstrating congruence between the representative sample and the full population.
It seems a multi-faceted approach is what is called for. Both surveys and media reviews and analysis of the vast amounts of marketing data available for sale (I assume campaigns are mostly focused on these data)
Okay, makes sense. I'm a little skeptical that such a comparison would be meaningful because likely shoppers aren't the same as likely voters and marketing surveys could be sloppy in ways that...
Okay, makes sense. I'm a little skeptical that such a comparison would be meaningful because likely shoppers aren't the same as likely voters and marketing surveys could be sloppy in ways that don't matter for marketing purposes, but do for predicting elections. But that's just speculation. I'd be interested in the results of someone actually looked.
An alternative that's easier to find is to cross-check between surveys done by different organizations of likely voters, like this one at 538. (Scroll down for the list.)
Just a heads-up: it's a good idea to post all US political news in the weekly recurring topic: https://tildes.net/~news/1ike/weekly_us_politics_news_and_updates_thread_week_of_september_2 Of...
Just a heads-up: it's a good idea to post all US political news in the weekly recurring topic:
please try to post all relevant US political content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Extremely significant events may warrant a separate topic, but almost all should be posted in here.
Of course, what counts as an "extremely significant event" is up to interpretation, but I don't think routine poll updates are it.
That recurring topic is automatically posted every Monday.
You can find all the recurring topics in ~news using this link:
For those that don't want to see US political news, it's on those people to unsubscribe from those tags. There's absolutely no reason why we should segregate all political news to go die in a...
For those that don't want to see US political news, it's on those people to unsubscribe from those tags.
There's absolutely no reason why we should segregate all political news to go die in a completely inactive weekly thread.
Here's to everyone posting the content they want to see on tildes on tildes! It's not like any subgroup is drowning in content. The first reaction someone gets for posting something like like should not be to be told that their contribution is second-rate and shouldn't be made because for whatever reason they deem that content inferior.
Over here in the Netherlands campaigning seasons tend to be far shorter than the US due to various factors. And even then things can change on the fly. So yeah, polls changing when it's still...
Of course, what counts as an "extremely significant event" is up to interpretation, but I don't think routine poll updates are it.
Over here in the Netherlands campaigning seasons tend to be far shorter than the US due to various factors. And even then things can change on the fly. So yeah, polls changing when it's still going to take two months isn't anything special imo.
Unfortunately there is not. You can bookmark topics and find them here: https://tildes.net/bookmarks And the sidebar for each group lists the current recurring topics if they have any. Those are...
And the sidebar for each group lists the current recurring topics if they have any.
Those are about the closest things right now. However, there are two issues on Tildes' GitLab repository that I think should cover what you're asking for (and please let me know if they don't):
Both of those issues have been marked as "accepted", meaning they will eventually be implemented. Unfortunately, I can't give you a time frame on when that might be.
I think this is expected as the convention bump passes. I'm hopeful to see positive outcomes from the debate, especially given how Trump has primarily been ranting lately. But I just don't know.
I have noticed that while my small town has like 2-3 Trump signs (one just went from a small Trump 2024 to a large hand painted Trump Vance one), there's a group doing "Register. pray. vote." signs.
And I think they are significant, because they're not saying vote Trump, they're not in Red or Blue, and I think Christians attending the churches marketing these could be encouraged to vote against Trump under that slogan
The Mormon church issued a statement that can basically be summed up as evaluate candidates carefully and vote based on your values rather than a tradition of supporting one party.
Article featuring Mormon statement on straight ticket voting
Is that typical from them being a major denomination or more unusual? I know it's from 23 so not sure it it's a this cycle thing or always a thing.
I've never seen these signs here before so I'm curious if this is new. (They're not from the LDS Church here)
I'm not sure but Utah has been a reliably red state for a long time.
Here is a different official letter from 2014
Edit. Here is an article from axios. About Mormons organizing against Trump this year.
Hm. Obviously I can't say, and I don't expect Utah to go blue or anything but I think it is an interesting shift from what I've seen at least locally in previous years.
I edited my comment to include an article that I think is interesting about Mormons organizing against Trump.
Thanks!
FYI, Harris didn't get a much if any post convention bump but instead got a bump before then. Trump got a small but insignificant bump.
https://abcnews.go.com/538/harris-polling-bounce-convention-after/story?id=113273029
I put not much stock in polls in general but yeah it makes sense that she got her whole thing beforehand. The convention felt like it culminated all that.
Tomorrow's electoral debate will be make-or-break for Harris. Support plummeted for Biden because the last debate exposed what his critics have been saying for years. He's a senile old man who shouldn't be trusted with the largest economy and second-largest nuclear stockpile in the world, and his performance in that debate showed just how untenable his position was.
Part of me really hopes she destroys Trump...
My take on Biden's debate performance was more that he doesn't have the strength, energy or focus to be a successful convincing candidate for a new term. When I read the transcript rather than watch, I could see that he made sense. However he let trump guide the conversation and his voice was weak. I don't have doubts about Biden overseeing staff right now. He is aging but not demented.
I'd agree with that. He's an old man, with a stutter and (I assume) dentures, not incompetent by any available evidence.
What do dentures have to do with his last debate performance?
Given how poorly it looks like trump takes care of his body, and how good his teeth look I would be willing to guess trump has dentures ( or some kind of other replacement of his teeth ).
I wasn't specifically speaking to the debate performance. Dentures impact how your speech sounds. Combined with the stutter and his age, a lot of his speech patterns get perceived as "dementia" rather than "aged and physically impaired. There's more than a small amount of ageism involved in a lot of the conversation around all of this.
I think they are saying that if Biden wears dentures, it could affect his speech. I suspect that if he has any dental prostheses they are implants, though. The same goes for Trump.
Yes, to be fair I don't know a lot about dental stuff, so I didn't have the right terminology.
Yet the economy has improved, greatly, under Biden's administration. Unlike felon Trump President Biden hasn't once threatened any nation with a nuclear attack. Also unlike felon Trump, President Biden didn't sell nuclear documents to foreigners either.
This talking point can be yelled from the rooftops every day until the election but the average American doesn't buy it. Trump is going hammer her on the country's economic record under the Biden/Harris administration.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/05/23/views-of-the-nations-economy-may-2024/
I suspect the jobs numbers being heavily revised downward every quarter is a large part of the reality vs initial reports contradiction.
If by “hammer her” you mean babble a string of barely coherent lies, then sure.
Trouble is, barely coherent lies are what a lot of people want to hear right now.
I think what propels the Trump train is misplaced anger at being left by society to rot economically, and all the "number goes up!" crowing in the world won't slow that down a jot.
It doesn't matter if the Biden administration has done a masterful job of steering things back on track (debatable), if improvements in living standards aren't immediate and obviously attributable to their policies. It doesn't matter if the problem Trump's supporters face have been caused by five decades of congressional deregulation and have very little to do with the current administration, or any administration for that matter, because that's just not the way humans think. It's not because nuance is beyond their capacity to entertain, it's because they don't want to entertain it.
This whole mess is down to decades of worsening wealth inequality leading to a climate of anger and distrust, and the people being gulled into believing Trump's bullshit are the types who want nothing more than the complex problems of society to be simplified for them. There are few things in politics that appear as simple as handing over the keys to someone who promises to fix everything with no effort or thought on the part of voters. That's the root of authoritarian sentiment, and pointing at line graphs that say the economy is doing just swell isn't going to address it.
Semi related question:
Does anyone know of any polling or other organizations presenting more broadly-based voter sentiment data?
What I mean is, data based on more than polls. For example, some kind of validated social media survey, purchasing habits, migrations.
If you're worried about telephone surveys, it looks like polling companies do use Internet apps these days:
From Pew Research Center:
I don't see how a "validated social media survey" could be more reliable than this.
While that’s definitely an improvement over phone polling, it’s all about how representative the opinions of the survey takers are of all the other voters (or opinion havers). That’s what the validation is for, demonstrating congruence between the representative sample and the full population.
It seems a multi-faceted approach is what is called for. Both surveys and media reviews and analysis of the vast amounts of marketing data available for sale (I assume campaigns are mostly focused on these data)
Okay, makes sense. I'm a little skeptical that such a comparison would be meaningful because likely shoppers aren't the same as likely voters and marketing surveys could be sloppy in ways that don't matter for marketing purposes, but do for predicting elections. But that's just speculation. I'd be interested in the results of someone actually looked.
An alternative that's easier to find is to cross-check between surveys done by different organizations of likely voters, like this one at 538. (Scroll down for the list.)
I've seen some articles about new voter registration demographics and first time donors.
Just a heads-up: it's a good idea to post all US political news in the weekly recurring topic:
https://tildes.net/~news/1ike/weekly_us_politics_news_and_updates_thread_week_of_september_2
Of course, what counts as an "extremely significant event" is up to interpretation, but I don't think routine poll updates are it.
That recurring topic is automatically posted every Monday.
You can find all the recurring topics in ~news using this link:
https://tildes.net/~news?tag=recurring
And all the recurring topics across the site using this link:
https://tildes.net/?tag=recurring
For those that don't want to see US political news, it's on those people to unsubscribe from those tags.
There's absolutely no reason why we should segregate all political news to go die in a completely inactive weekly thread.
Here's to everyone posting the content they want to see on tildes on tildes! It's not like any subgroup is drowning in content. The first reaction someone gets for posting something like like should not be to be told that their contribution is second-rate and shouldn't be made because for whatever reason they deem that content inferior.
Over here in the Netherlands campaigning seasons tend to be far shorter than the US due to various factors. And even then things can change on the fly. So yeah, polls changing when it's still going to take two months isn't anything special imo.
Semi-related: is there a way to pin recurring topics or get notifications on replies or something to make easier to keep up with?
Unfortunately there is not.
You can bookmark topics and find them here: https://tildes.net/bookmarks
And the sidebar for each group lists the current recurring topics if they have any.
Those are about the closest things right now. However, there are two issues on Tildes' GitLab repository that I think should cover what you're asking for (and please let me know if they don't):
Both of those issues have been marked as "accepted", meaning they will eventually be implemented. Unfortunately, I can't give you a time frame on when that might be.
Hope that helps