Picture:

1. The Holdovers
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part 2
4. Oppenheimer
5. Past Lives
6. Barbie
7. The Zone of Interest
8. May/December
9. Saltburn
10. The Killer

Director:

1. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
3. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
4. Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part 2
5. Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay:

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. May/December
4. Saltburn
5. Drive Away Dolls

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Barbie
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part 2
4. Oppenheimer
5. The Zone of Interest

Lead Actor:

1. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
2. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Barry Keoghan - Saltburn
5. Colman Domingo - Rustin

Lead Actress:

1. Margot Robbie - Barbie
2. Greta Lee - Past Lives
3. Natalie Portman - May/December
4. Annette Bening - Nyad
5. Zendaya - Challengers

Supporting Actor:

1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
4. Jesse Plemmons - Killers of the Flower Moon
5. John Magaro - Past Lives

Supporting Actress:

1. D’avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
4. Julianne Moore - May/December
5. Rosamund Pike - Saltburn

Picture: Everything Everywhere All At Once

It swept the guilds. Last movie to do that was Birdman. I don’t even know what would win in its place anymore. All Quiet on the Western Front? Nah that’s missing too many things. EEAAO’s got this in the bag.

Director: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All At Once

DGA winners, next.

Original Screenplay: Everything Everywhere All At Once written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert

I want to predict Banshees winning at least here. But Three Billboards was a stronger movie (it won Globe Drama, SAG Ensemble, and BAFTA Film) and McDonagh lost to Get Out and EEAAO has way more passion.

Adapted Screenplay: All Quiet on the Western Front screenplay by Edward Berger, Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson. Based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque.

BAFTA has been way more accurate at “predicting” the winner in this category than either Critic’s Choice or WGA. Women Talking only has two nominations, was 10th in Picture, and didn’t even get a BAFTA nomination. So I think the stronger movie here will win.

Lead Actor: Austin Butler - Elvis

BAFTA + Globe is a hell of a combo. Fraser would be his biggest competition but the last actor to win for a movie that was not in Picture was Jeff Bridges.

Lead Actress: Cate Blanchett - TÁR

Ditto. Yeoh could win here, but Globe and BAFTA has proved an unbeatable combo in recent years.

Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin

BAFTA winner again. Bassett was a red herring, Curtis would be a weak winner and has been annoyingly campaigning all season. Mark Rylance went on to win the Oscar for Bridge of Spies after only having won BAFTA in a similarly divided field.

Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once

He lost BAFTA, but he was the one constant winner in this category. If EEAAO walks away with only one acting award, it’ll be this one.

Animated Feature: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Swept.

International Feature: All Quiet on the Western Front

Only Picture nominee.

Documentary: Navalny

PGA + BAFTA winner.

Original Score: All Quiet on the Western Front

Kind of an open category. Babylon won the Globe, but All Quiet won BAFTA. Any of the nominees could potentially win. But I’ll stay safe and stick with the BAFTA winner.

Original Song: Naatu Naatu from RRR

Nobody seems to care about any of the other songs. RRR has the passion. Although I can see the case for any of the other nominees winning.

Sound: Top Gun: Maverick

Locked.

Production Design: Babylon

Swept, locked.

Cinematography: Elvis

It’s the only movie to meet all the statistical requirements. It got nominated at all the precursors. It got a production design nomination. And it won at the cinematographer’s guild. It’s also really colorful and flashy. All Quiet would be the closest competition, but that missed a nomination at the guild. This should be Top Gun’s award, but oh well.

Makeup and Hairstyling: Elvis

Swept.

Costume Design: Elvis

Won BAFTA. Black Panther would be its closest competition but that lost at the guild to EEAAO. Elvis fits the stats better (production design nom).

Film Editing: Top Gun: Maverick

EEAAO has so far swept these awards, winning BAFTA, ACE Comedy, and Critic’s Choice. However, there is a strong correlation between sound and film editing. The last film editing winner to win without winning Sound was Argo, which still had sound nominations which EEAAO does not have. The last film editing winner without a sound nomination was Traffik in 2002. EEAAO could buck the trend, as it will be a Picture winner just like Argo. But, I’m sticking with the sound stat. Last year Dune did not win a single film editing award, but it won the Oscar due to the correlation. And Top Gun at least has ACE Drama, which is the only precursor Bohemian Rhapsody had before it went on to win the Oscar.

Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water

Swept.

Animated Short: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and the Horse

Live-Action Short: Le Pupille

Documentary Short: The Elephant Whisperers