I actually felt this while I was looking for jobs earlier this year. Before the pandemic, there were new kindergartens looking for teachers everywhere. The school I worked for was opening new...
I actually felt this while I was looking for jobs earlier this year. Before the pandemic, there were new kindergartens looking for teachers everywhere. The school I worked for was opening new locations and looking to expand to different cities. This year, there were noticably fewer opportunities. I actually had to put forth a little effort finding a job, and the kindergarten I used to work for is back to one location with fewer classrooms than when I started.
Enrolments in China’s kindergartens have declined by 12mn children between 2020 and 2024, from a peak of 48mn, according to data from the country’s ministry of education. The number of kindergartens, serving Chinese children aged 3-5, has also fallen by 41,500 from a high of nearly 295,000 in 2021.
...
The contraction of China’s pre-school system is a foretaste of the challenges to come for business and policymakers from China’s demographic decline, which is expected to be one of the most rapid in the world.
China has recorded three consecutive years of population decline to 2024 following the decades-long policy, ended in 2016, that limited many couples to one child.
While the number of births rose by about 520,000 last year to 9.3mn, following a record low in 2023, they were still outpaced by deaths and have declined by nearly half since the peak of 17.9mn in 2017.
...
Some see opportunities for reforming China’s education system in response to the demographic cliff. HKUST’s Gietel-Basten said that Beijing could reallocate resources saved by the declining student numbers to improve the overall quality of the education system, from providing better day-care facilities for infants to investing in its universities.
...
He noted, however, that the question of what to do with the vast infrastructure of China’s education system, such as the buildings and properties, was more difficult.
China may have accelerated this with the one-child policy but there really needs to be a solution for this globally-- the richer a country gets, the less children they have. Taiwan is even worse...
China may have accelerated this with the one-child policy but there really needs to be a solution for this globally-- the richer a country gets, the less children they have. Taiwan is even worse for instance. Are there any examples of governments managing to reverse this trend?
This isn’t by a government and it’s a bit obscure, but one campaign I’ve heard of that was allegedly successful at increasing birth rate was by the Georgian Orthodox Church. Here’s a brief news...
This isn’t by a government and it’s a bit obscure, but one campaign I’ve heard of that was allegedly successful at increasing birth rate was by the Georgian Orthodox Church.
The patriarch of the Georgian Orthodox church has baptised hundreds of babies in a Tbilisi cathedral and has been credited with raising the birth rate.
Patriarch Ilia II has promised to become the godfather of all babies born into Orthodox Christian families who already have two or more children.
Since he began the mass baptisms in 2008, he has gained almost 11,000 godchildren.
We find a 17% increase (0.3 children per woman) in the national total fertility rate, a 42% increase in Georgian Orthodox women’s birth rate within marriage (an increase in annual hazard rate of 3.5 percentage points), and a 100% increase in their 3 and higher-order birth rate within marriage (1.3 percentage points higher annual hazard rate). The impact of the intervention also correlates with higher marriage rates and reduced reported abortions, aligning with the church’s goals. This research emphasizes the potential impact of non-economic factors such as religion and the influence of traditional authority figures on shifting fertility patterns in industrialized, educated, and low-fertility societies.
The circumstances seem specific to Georgia, but it suggests that maybe getting families that already have two children to have one more might be worth trying?
My preferred solution, though, would be for low-fertility countries to somehow become more pro-immigration. Moving from a poor to a rich country can have a lot of positive impact.
A dimension I want to explore is how strongly or weakly a culture sees children as a way to connect with society (or at least one's community within society) and validate one's place within it....
A dimension I want to explore is how strongly or weakly a culture sees children as a way to connect with society (or at least one's community within society) and validate one's place within it.
There is a prevailing perception in the developed world that having children takes one out of society: from their hobbies and interests, their careers, their social lives, etc. to be sequestered away in some suburb to raise children.
I think a phenomenon we see in Georgia is a cultural one where the Georgian Orthodox church still binds society together, whereas the church is not very strong in the west, such that such a move would reinforce the perception that having children binds one closer to one's society and community.
In the US, there are various subcultures that have interesting fertility patterns. Latino Americans have significantly higher fertility rates than other ethnic groups (in the US). I have many Latino friends, and my general observation is that they're more family-oriented than others: they got married and had kids in their 20s, their social functions are very extended-family-oriented (big parties where uncles and aunts and cousins all gather), and them having kids connected them more closely to their extended families and community.
This isn't to say that my white and Asian friends aren't family-oriented, but they'd see their parents for Thanksgiving and Christmas and maybe one family vacation and maybe their parents would visit them. They don't really do massive family functions with twenty uncles, aunts, family friends, and all their children.
It would be interesting to dig further into the cultural aspect. For my family with a European background, moderate to large family gatherings used to be fairly common on both my parents’ sides up...
It would be interesting to dig further into the cultural aspect. For my family with a European background, moderate to large family gatherings used to be fairly common on both my parents’ sides up until the 90s or so, after which it’s been in decline due to a combination of people aging and passing with 0-1 kids replacing them and the younger members being scattered across the country.
I’d like to raise a family at some point (will have to be sooner or later thanks to age creeping up on me) but like many in my cohort, since age 20 I’ve either been dead broke, in nose to the grindstone career mode, or scraping together enough savings to act as cushion should the worst come to pass. It’s only been recently that finding a partner and having kids has become something I feel like I could responsibly do, and to be honest I’d still not be entirely comfortable doing that unless I could somehow triple what’s sitting in my savings account.
Maybe those standards my peers and I are holding ourselves to is a cultural artifact. Clearly other cultures don’t adhere to that, because very few couples starting families in their early 20s in the US have anywhere close to that level of preparedness going in.
Cultural values can shift over a generation or two. Asians have the lowest fertility rates — this also includes Asian Americans compared to other Americans, despite being the wealthiest ethnic...
Cultural values can shift over a generation or two.
Asians have the lowest fertility rates — this also includes Asian Americans compared to other Americans, despite being the wealthiest ethnic group. East Asia used to have very high fertility rates when their economies were agrarian. But economic development has shaped Asian societies to prioritize professional, academic, and economic achievement. The immigration process from Asia-to-America selected for highly educated professionals, which made the phenomenon particularly pronounced among Asian Americans.
Avg Asian Am. household income is $113k vs. avg Latino Am. household $66k in 2023 according to US census.
I observe that my Latino friends make it work somehow. They usually live near family and lean on parents and relatives for childcare help. The women deprioritize their careers or schooling.
My Asian and white friends tend to not live near family, choosing cities for career optimization. They want to have children, but they want to wait until they're earning enough money in their careers so that they can afford paid, non-family childcare and a good lifestyle and college tuition for their future children and more-or-less maintain their childfree standard of living. Having a child is something they want, but having a big family is not a priority. The whole Asian parent expectation of "you be a doctor or engineer!" is real: many Asians are raised with the expectation that academic and professional achievements are what primarily validate their place in their familial and cultural units.
My observations are reflected in data: according to Pew Research, Black and Hispanic mothers have their first child around at age 25.5. White mothers at 28.1. Asian mothers? 31.2.
It’s only been recently that finding a partner and having kids has become something I feel like I could responsibly do, and to be honest I’d still not be entirely comfortable doing that unless I could somehow triple what’s sitting in my savings account.
I'm sure that for you as an individual and other individuals like you, lower childcare burden would help move the needle. And indeed it does seem that broadly and statistically, the cost barrier of having children is shifting first-time parent ages upward.
Paradoxically at the same time, the high cost of having children isn't The Blocker. The wealthier you are in the US, the fewer children you have (and the later in life you'll have children). We see in the Nordic countries that even the most generous child subsidies in the world (free daycare, free allowances, free tuition, guaranteed kindergarten, etc.) don't move the needle.
Perhaps the determining factor here is whether the couples in question started poor and became wealthy or were born into it. I have no data but my hunch is that those who moved upwards are more...
Paradoxically at the same time, the high cost of having children isn't The Blocker. The wealthier you are in the US, the fewer children you have (and the later in life you'll have children). We see in the Nordic countries that even the most generous child subsidies in the world (free daycare, free allowances, free tuition, guaranteed kindergarten, etc.) don't move the needle.
Perhaps the determining factor here is whether the couples in question started poor and became wealthy or were born into it. I have no data but my hunch is that those who moved upwards are more likely to have children than those who’ve never had to think about money at all.
This is an interesting take. There's the saying, "it takes a village to raise a child." Personally, I feel like that village/community aspect is eroding or non existent to many family. Maybe...
This is an interesting take. There's the saying, "it takes a village to raise a child." Personally, I feel like that village/community aspect is eroding or non existent to many family. Maybe there's a correlation between the declining birth rates and the loneliness epidemic.
In the US, another factor that’s impacted the village aspect is collapse of mutual trust. Even when the village is technically present, parents and would-be parents may not have enough trust in...
In the US, another factor that’s impacted the village aspect is collapse of mutual trust. Even when the village is technically present, parents and would-be parents may not have enough trust in their neighbors to allow them to take part in their childrens’ lives. The stranger danger epidemic that’s been fueled by ratings-chasing TV and news programs painting everybody as a potential secret serial killer are almost certainly relevant here.
But long-term, every country's fertility rate is rapidly dropping, particularly with urbanisation. The pool of immigrants is finite and shrinking.
My preferred solution, though, would be for low-fertility countries to somehow become more pro-immigration. Moving from a poor to a rich country can have a lot of positive impact.
But long-term, every country's fertility rate is rapidly dropping, particularly with urbanisation. The pool of immigrants is finite and shrinking.
Yeah, that's a little too long-term for me. If we ever get the point where there are no poor countries anywhere, no refugees, nobody who wants to move to a richer country, then I think that would...
Yeah, that's a little too long-term for me. If we ever get the point where there are no poor countries anywhere, no refugees, nobody who wants to move to a richer country, then I think that would be cause for celebration?
According to this article, West Africa will be growing for quite a while.
The solution involves giving more free time to people (AKA working less hours), creating more free public spaces to socialize in, and heavily subsidizing childcare. Perhaps they need to regulate...
The solution involves giving more free time to people (AKA working less hours), creating more free public spaces to socialize in, and heavily subsidizing childcare. Perhaps they need to regulate dating algorithms as well.
Most of these are poliical suicide and don't appeal to corporate billionaires, so I'm not surprised few countries are making a serious effort. The one localized instance I've heard is how Tokyo (as Japan was one of the first to recognize this crisis) public sector jobs are experimenting with a 4 day work week, partially driven by low birth rates: https://news.virginia.edu/content/tokyo-offering-workers-four-day-workweeks-increase-population
I read this book review which showed a graph claiming that coercive gov policy hasn't historically substantially changed the birthrate (either up or down), so it would be surprising
I read this book review which showed a graph claiming that coercive gov policy hasn't historically substantially changed the birthrate (either up or down), so it would be surprising
I actually felt this while I was looking for jobs earlier this year. Before the pandemic, there were new kindergartens looking for teachers everywhere. The school I worked for was opening new locations and looking to expand to different cities. This year, there were noticably fewer opportunities. I actually had to put forth a little effort finding a job, and the kindergarten I used to work for is back to one location with fewer classrooms than when I started.
Tell me about it. I'm still looking. It's incredibly frustrating.
South Korea is doing something similar:
As birthrates plummet, kindergartens become nursing homes
From the article:
...
...
...
Mirror: https://archive.is/g5fU3
China may have accelerated this with the one-child policy but there really needs to be a solution for this globally-- the richer a country gets, the less children they have. Taiwan is even worse for instance. Are there any examples of governments managing to reverse this trend?
This isn’t by a government and it’s a bit obscure, but one campaign I’ve heard of that was allegedly successful at increasing birth rate was by the Georgian Orthodox Church.
Here’s a brief news article:
And here’s a paper:
The circumstances seem specific to Georgia, but it suggests that maybe getting families that already have two children to have one more might be worth trying?
My preferred solution, though, would be for low-fertility countries to somehow become more pro-immigration. Moving from a poor to a rich country can have a lot of positive impact.
A dimension I want to explore is how strongly or weakly a culture sees children as a way to connect with society (or at least one's community within society) and validate one's place within it.
There is a prevailing perception in the developed world that having children takes one out of society: from their hobbies and interests, their careers, their social lives, etc. to be sequestered away in some suburb to raise children.
I think a phenomenon we see in Georgia is a cultural one where the Georgian Orthodox church still binds society together, whereas the church is not very strong in the west, such that such a move would reinforce the perception that having children binds one closer to one's society and community.
In the US, there are various subcultures that have interesting fertility patterns. Latino Americans have significantly higher fertility rates than other ethnic groups (in the US). I have many Latino friends, and my general observation is that they're more family-oriented than others: they got married and had kids in their 20s, their social functions are very extended-family-oriented (big parties where uncles and aunts and cousins all gather), and them having kids connected them more closely to their extended families and community.
This isn't to say that my white and Asian friends aren't family-oriented, but they'd see their parents for Thanksgiving and Christmas and maybe one family vacation and maybe their parents would visit them. They don't really do massive family functions with twenty uncles, aunts, family friends, and all their children.
It would be interesting to dig further into the cultural aspect. For my family with a European background, moderate to large family gatherings used to be fairly common on both my parents’ sides up until the 90s or so, after which it’s been in decline due to a combination of people aging and passing with 0-1 kids replacing them and the younger members being scattered across the country.
I’d like to raise a family at some point (will have to be sooner or later thanks to age creeping up on me) but like many in my cohort, since age 20 I’ve either been dead broke, in nose to the grindstone career mode, or scraping together enough savings to act as cushion should the worst come to pass. It’s only been recently that finding a partner and having kids has become something I feel like I could responsibly do, and to be honest I’d still not be entirely comfortable doing that unless I could somehow triple what’s sitting in my savings account.
Maybe those standards my peers and I are holding ourselves to is a cultural artifact. Clearly other cultures don’t adhere to that, because very few couples starting families in their early 20s in the US have anywhere close to that level of preparedness going in.
Cultural values can shift over a generation or two.
Asians have the lowest fertility rates — this also includes Asian Americans compared to other Americans, despite being the wealthiest ethnic group. East Asia used to have very high fertility rates when their economies were agrarian. But economic development has shaped Asian societies to prioritize professional, academic, and economic achievement. The immigration process from Asia-to-America selected for highly educated professionals, which made the phenomenon particularly pronounced among Asian Americans.
Avg Asian Am. household income is $113k vs. avg Latino Am. household $66k in 2023 according to US census.
I observe that my Latino friends make it work somehow. They usually live near family and lean on parents and relatives for childcare help. The women deprioritize their careers or schooling.
My Asian and white friends tend to not live near family, choosing cities for career optimization. They want to have children, but they want to wait until they're earning enough money in their careers so that they can afford paid, non-family childcare and a good lifestyle and college tuition for their future children and more-or-less maintain their childfree standard of living. Having a child is something they want, but having a big family is not a priority. The whole Asian parent expectation of "you be a doctor or engineer!" is real: many Asians are raised with the expectation that academic and professional achievements are what primarily validate their place in their familial and cultural units.
My observations are reflected in data: according to Pew Research, Black and Hispanic mothers have their first child around at age 25.5. White mothers at 28.1. Asian mothers? 31.2.
I'm sure that for you as an individual and other individuals like you, lower childcare burden would help move the needle. And indeed it does seem that broadly and statistically, the cost barrier of having children is shifting first-time parent ages upward.
Paradoxically at the same time, the high cost of having children isn't The Blocker. The wealthier you are in the US, the fewer children you have (and the later in life you'll have children). We see in the Nordic countries that even the most generous child subsidies in the world (free daycare, free allowances, free tuition, guaranteed kindergarten, etc.) don't move the needle.
Perhaps the determining factor here is whether the couples in question started poor and became wealthy or were born into it. I have no data but my hunch is that those who moved upwards are more likely to have children than those who’ve never had to think about money at all.
This is an interesting take. There's the saying, "it takes a village to raise a child." Personally, I feel like that village/community aspect is eroding or non existent to many family. Maybe there's a correlation between the declining birth rates and the loneliness epidemic.
In the US, another factor that’s impacted the village aspect is collapse of mutual trust. Even when the village is technically present, parents and would-be parents may not have enough trust in their neighbors to allow them to take part in their childrens’ lives. The stranger danger epidemic that’s been fueled by ratings-chasing TV and news programs painting everybody as a potential secret serial killer are almost certainly relevant here.
But long-term, every country's fertility rate is rapidly dropping, particularly with urbanisation. The pool of immigrants is finite and shrinking.
Yeah, that's a little too long-term for me. If we ever get the point where there are no poor countries anywhere, no refugees, nobody who wants to move to a richer country, then I think that would be cause for celebration?
According to this article, West Africa will be growing for quite a while.
The solution involves giving more free time to people (AKA working less hours), creating more free public spaces to socialize in, and heavily subsidizing childcare. Perhaps they need to regulate dating algorithms as well.
Most of these are poliical suicide and don't appeal to corporate billionaires, so I'm not surprised few countries are making a serious effort. The one localized instance I've heard is how Tokyo (as Japan was one of the first to recognize this crisis) public sector jobs are experimenting with a 4 day work week, partially driven by low birth rates: https://news.virginia.edu/content/tokyo-offering-workers-four-day-workweeks-increase-population
I read this book review which showed a graph claiming that coercive gov policy hasn't historically substantially changed the birthrate (either up or down), so it would be surprising