I've been keeping a finger on the pulse of analytics & contract valuation in the NFL for the last few years (as a fan, not related to my profession). Anyone else who has been of fan of this is probably aware that we hit a pretty serious breaking point yesterday, as a handful of top-end RBs failed to reach deals with their respective teams resulting in them being franchise tagged. I was wondering what others thought about this whole fiasco.

My thoughts:

In one sense, this is simply effective roster management: RBs add little win probability by themselves (i.e., their production is largely a result of the offensive line and passing game), their age curve is poor (i.e., they're typically out of highly productive years by the end of their rookie deals), and they're easily replaced by rookie talent.

On the other hand, these guys take a beating to produce a product we all love. They spend some of their best years in the college system, where they do seem to add a lot of win probability, being totally uncompensated. They get to the NFL only to have their potential earnings suppressed by the rookie wage scale, then get franchise tagged guaranteeing they'll be SOL with respect to a deal with big fully-guaranteed cash.

What's the solution here? Assuming the draft is an efficient(-ish) market, adjusting the rookie pay scale for them will just cause teams to adjust their drafting behavior. Letting RBs arrive to the NFL sooner than everyone is something that the NCAA almost certainly won't allow without a vicious fight. Is there any hope for these guys?

edit: typos

I've been tasked with naming the Tildes Fantasy Football League. I am notoriously bad at naming things.

My only idea is "League of A-holes" because the first vlog post introducing Tildes, Deimos mentioned

Tildes will not be a victim of the paradox of tolerance; my philosophy is closer to "if your website's full of assholes, it's your fault".

But I don't really like it.

Last night, the NL All-Stars beat the AL All-Stars 3-2, for their first win since 2012 and only their 4th since 1997.

Here's the box score and lineups from the last time the NL won.

I've never really understood why the AL seemed to be so much better in this game against the NL, but it's nice to see the league win one, even if no Brewers appeared in the game.

This is something I’ve thought about and I don’t think has gotten as much discussion as I figured it would. Who’s in line to take that second Mercedes seat if Lewis does decide to walk away?

I don’t think anyone in the junior program will go straight to Merc. Additionally, Red Bull are no gos in my opinion.

I think both Ferrari guys will do what they can to get out at this point. Slight lean to Leclerc because he does have his brilliant moments. I would have put money on Lando before Silverstone, but maybe he’s been convinced. I don’t think they’d take Alonso, Stroll isn’t going anywhere. I know Ocon used to be managed by Toto but I think he’s committed to Alpine. Gasly and Bottas haven’t been impressive enough since the start of 2022 to be in consideration, in my opinion. Ricciardo will need a hell of a rest of 2023 to be a contender. I highly doubt they’d go to Mick, could they potentially poach Albon from Williams and put Mick in his place? The story is Hulk was going to be their other driver way back when, has he done enough to be in the conversation?

My personal top three most likely is Leclerc, Albon, Norris. What do you think?