30 votes

What's gonna happen in the 2020s?

I personally see:

  • The enaction of the progressive policies that have been continuosly amplified over the last 5 years during the election of Bernie or Warren (in the US, be it after 2020 or 2024)

  • Increasing regulation of the Internet (be it the breakup of tech conglomerates, increased pressure by VC investors for the companies in the red to turn a profit or more surveillance by 3-letter agencies in bad faith)

  • Increased tension between the US and China as China becomes increasingly more powerful especially over tech companies

  • A recession which throws the item in the top 15 years down the line.

  • Automation and AI begin to become more pressing issues during the next depression, leading to people taking candidates like Yang more seriously.

  • "Apophis 2029 is gonna hit the earth." "Finally."

Edit: Ok, here's some non-political predictions:

  • Mojang runs out of already existing biomes and dimensions to overhaul in minecraft, so they'll shift their development focus to adding more unique biomes, worldgen and mechanical depth and maybe some sort of progression to the game (more complex combat, more dimensions, more bossfights, more mobs like the iron golem with better attacks, more Redstone components, more unique worldgen). By the time this happens, hytale will already be a big competitor and great at al this, causing high controversy that Microsoft is stealing their ideas.

  • This also applies to mobile phone makers as they get rid of all notches, bezels and ports and so they either focus on specs and battery life and nirvana is supposedly achieved at 1600$ per phone, in making the phones as cheap as possible , which makes people get mad about the working conditions of the laborers or in even more exclusive wearables like now.

  • A new manned moon landing, finally. This time the whole journey will be streamed live on an 8k camera via starlink.

  • The (further) normalization of anime, similar to what happened to gaming this decade. More people from more different backgrounds will be watching anime, and they will be less focused on self-depreciation because of it. They will watch anime in public, and will demand more and better anime from the production teams in Japan. The more diverse audience will mean that fanservice will be gradually less effective and non-tanned black characters will appear way more often (and someone will lose their shit over it).

  • HN finally comes up with a site redesign, mainly to make it clearer which threads are which. The new design is similar to Tilde's now and HN usage grows 3-fold.

36 comments

  1. [3]
    emdash
    (edited )
    Link
    A few random predictions, grouped by year, mainly science & technology focused. Years are approximate. I'll keep adding to this as I feel like it. 2020 Democratic candidate Joe Biden loses to...

    A few random predictions, grouped by year, mainly science & technology focused. Years are approximate. I'll keep adding to this as I feel like it.

    2020

    • Democratic candidate Joe Biden loses to Donald J. Trump in the U.S. 2020 Presidential Election. Despite years of warnings, Russians and other foreign actors also successfully influence public opinion during the election cycle.
    • After years of no progress on gun safety legislation, the United States sees its first mass shooting of 100 or more people that is livestreamed on a social media platform.

    2021

    • The first 12MW offshore wind turbine enters commercial service.
    • Apple releases the first widely-available MicroLED product: the Apple Watch Series 7.
    • Queen Elizabeth II passes away. Her successor, Prince Charles, immediately abdicates to Prince William, Duke of Cambridge.
    • One or more countries in the EU also secede from the union. Most likely Greece or an Eastern-bloc country.

    2022

    • Apple releases an AR headset, setting it on a trajectory equivalent to the introduction of the Apple Watch in the 2010's, further solidifying its position in the wearables market.
    • A major super-power shoots down one or more U.S. megaconstellation satellites (most likely Starlink, most likely from China). This asserts China's influence as a super-power, leading to further trade restrictions and an economic cold war.
    • A mild financial recession occurs, precipitated by the above, although this is not unexpected due to the principles surrounding macroeconomics.
    • The lowest-priced Tesla electric vehicle is now below $29,900, in a further push by Musk to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles.

    2023

    • Progress on reversing the influence of CFC's in the atmosphere is halted, due to growing illegal emissions from China and other countries in southeast Asia in breach of the Montreal Protocol, resulting in concentrations beginning to rise again.
    • Although batteries have made significant progress in $/kWh, and mild progress in kWh/kg; they are still not suitable for transcontinental & widebody aircraft such as the 787. At least one hydrogen-powered aircraft to satisfy this role is in development at this time—possibly with input from Reaction Engines Limited (developers of Skylon).

    2024

    • A democratic candidate is elected president, narrowly winning in the electoral college to an isolationist republican candidate, despite popular opinion showing the democratic candidate is far ahead—this is due to increasingly effective disenfranchisement tactics from Republican-led portions of government.
    • After years of increasingly lower and lower $/kWh costs, grid-installed batteries become seen as the primary source of managing renewable energy supply and demand. The least efficient natural gas peaker plants, popular in the 2010's, begin to be phased out.
    • The first 15MW offshore commercial wind turbine enters service.
    • It becomes increasingly popular for electric vehicles to have thin-film, flexible solar panels embedded in the vehicle body. Recently, these have increased in efficiency, and are now energy dense enough to power auxiliary vehicle functions (AC) and provide several extra miles of range on a sunny day.

    2025

    • First crewed mission to the Moon's surface since the Apollo program, organized as part of the Artemis program. Originally scheduled to land in 2024, underfunding in the years prior led to delays in the first mission. SpaceX is not part of the selected companies to help the campaign, having gone all-in on Starship.
    • The Aral Sea completely runs dry for the first time.
    • Discussion around limiting childbirth to prevent extreme global overpopulation begin to become increasingly mainstream, but is politically used as a wedge issue in countries around the globe to further drive civil division.
    • Single use plastics are now uncommon in the western world, having been nearly completely phased out save for some locations and uses. Social pressure accelerates this trend. Plastics use in Asia and Africa continues to increase, unabated, however.

    2026

    • First female also walks on the moon, in a further Artemis mission.
    • With the effects of climate change ramping up in the 2010s, the first wide scale disaster that results in more than a million deaths that is directly attributable to climate change occurs, most likely a heatwave in Europe, or significant flooding from a hurricane in the United States.
    • CO2 concentrations and temperature in the oceans rise so significantly that a permanent, irreversible bleaching of one of the world's largest coral reefs occurs.
    • The first significantly-sized CO2 negative emissions plant enters operation, while annual CO2 emissions from global countries continue to rise.
    • SpaceX sends its first cargo Starship to Mars. Humans won't fly on Starship to Mars until the 2030's however.
    • A medium range (<1000km), narrow-body (<100 people) electric jet aircraft enters service (developed by neither Airbus or Boeing, but rather a "newaviation" competitor), intended exclusively for city-pairs and domestic hops—and is a direct response to the market demand for more eco-friendly air travel.

    2028

    • Greenland's ice sheet begins rapidly collapsing, despite earlier scientific consensus that it would be stable for decades or centuries from now.
    • The ISS, previously scheduled to be de-orbited in 2028, has its funding extended for another 5-10 years to continue to provide a hospitable environment for commercial spaceflight.
    • Climate change begins crippling the global economy, as increasingly larger amounts of government spending are needed for disaster recovery. After the mild recession in 2022, and 6 years of marginal growth, the economy flatlines and enters a state of stagnation for the forseeable future.

    2029

    • Thanks to the rapid collapse of several ice shelfs in both the arctic and antarctic, sea levels rise up to 30 centimetres. Stronger and more intense storms combine to cause storm surges that lead to the first 'managed retreats' for many cities with a population of one million people or more.
    26 votes
    1. drannex
      Link Parent
      Do you have a blog/twitter? Very curious to follow your thoughts now.

      Do you have a blog/twitter? Very curious to follow your thoughts now.

      4 votes
    2. thundergolfer
      Link Parent
      Funny to see the first prediction is already looking very unlikely to come true. Let's hope the second also doesn't come true.

      Funny to see the first prediction is already looking very unlikely to come true. Let's hope the second also doesn't come true.

      1 vote
  2. [11]
    NaraVara
    (edited )
    Link
    Oh I wish I shared your optimism. Current trends extended I don't see a realistic scenario where Biden doesn't eke out a win for the nomination. I had some hopes for Warren to present a realistic...

    Oh I wish I shared your optimism. Current trends extended I don't see a realistic scenario where Biden doesn't eke out a win for the nomination. I had some hopes for Warren to present a realistic challenge, but between bad-faith sniping from the Jacobin types and Pete's peeling off her moderate supporters with "can't we all just get along" hooey, the "not-Bidens" are too split to hold him back as Sanders has a firm ceiling of support that he lacks the political skills to grow past.

    So basically, Biden is the candidate. He probably wins in a squeaker. Our best hope is that Vice President Stacy Abrams manages to succeed him, but there will be no realistic shot of having a legislative majority so nothing gets done. The underlying tensions that led to the Trump era do not get resolved and the United States creeps closer to irrelevance on the world stage.

    I think history will remember the 2020s as the decade where the Pax Americana ended and we moved from a monopolar world of hegemonic stability to a multi-polar world of great power competition between the US, the EU, China, and Russia. India, South America, and Africa ending up being battlegrounds along various dimensions (ethno-religious tensions, economic models, resource competition, etc.

    I also see nothing good happening for the world's Muslims in non-Muslim countries nor non-Muslims in Muslim ones. There seems to be a civilizational tension between Islam and the rest of the world (not just Christendom, but Hindu and Chinese places too). The big battlegrounds will be in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa where we are likely to see continued and redoubled society-wide communal tensions. I expect there will be a purge of Muslims throughout India. There will never be enough to get rid of the Muslims, but there is likely to be a big refugee crisis as it becomes less and less safe for practicing Muslims to live there in peace. I expect this process to be repeated throughout Africa as well and the mutual antipathy will mean similar things happen to Hindus and Buddhists in places like Malaysia or Bangladesh and throughout Africa. (Pakistan's already basically purged itself of its Hindu and Buddhist minorities so that's a moot point).

    The new economic system will start to take shape. It's already kind of there, but it will be hard to deny by the end of 2029 that whatever system we have will no longer be "capitalism" anymore (if you characterize capitalism as a market based economy rooted in free-enterprise and entrepreneurism). It'll be something like corporate feudalism in the formerly capitalist West or techno-fascism in China and the countries under its orbit.

    On the sunny-side, I see race and gender relations in the US getting better. But I also see extremists continuing to act and coopt the political system. So the society-wide commitments to equality will probably not be reflected in our political leadership. The extreme conservative packing of the federal courts will guarantee that actual equal protection laws stay off the books for a good long time and voting rights continue to be denied to people of color and the young. I will be very surprised if people who don't own property are permitted to vote by 2050.

    20 votes
    1. [6]
      Amarok
      Link Parent
      The frontrunners at this point in the democratic primary literally never win the nomination. Biden's current position is proof he's toast, not proof he's a winner. The only people paying attention...

      The frontrunners at this point in the democratic primary literally never win the nomination. Biden's current position is proof he's toast, not proof he's a winner. The only people paying attention are hardcore democrats and political wonks - a tiny self-important fraction of the electorate that are, frankly, irrelevant to the election results. The rest don't start paying attention until after Iowa votes. All the poll numbers get a reboot from scratch at that point.

      Failing some rather spectacular capitalism reforms that put FDR's new deal to shame, we're going straight into the riots that came with the first industrial revolution, only on a larger and nastier scale, since the guns are better this time around and there are orders of magnitude more displaced Americans to use them. Look forward to the entire interstate system being shut down on a semi-regular basis by striking truckers toting guns. We're going to get the reforms either way, it's just a question of if we're smart enough to sidestep the violence that comes with them this time around. Look into labor day and weep if this sounds crazy.

      I share your gloom with the forecast for the rest of the world, though. There are some particularly troubling possibilities emerging in the world of climate change geopolitics.

      8 votes
      1. mightychicken
        Link Parent
        Al Gore and Hillary Clinton?

        The frontrunners at this point in the democratic primary literally never win the nomination. Biden's current position is proof he's toast, not proof he's a winner.

        Al Gore and Hillary Clinton?

        8 votes
      2. NaraVara
        Link Parent
        Honestly the n-sizes on these claims are too low and non-generalizable so we can't be making pronouncements like these. It is good to be skeptical of polling since the world Can change a lot...

        The frontrunners at this point in the democratic primary literally never win the nomination.

        Honestly the n-sizes on these claims are too low and non-generalizable so we can't be making pronouncements like these. It is good to be skeptical of polling since the world Can change a lot between now and when people cast votes/caucus, but we also need to look at what people's realistic pathways are based on momentum and I'm not seeing a route for anyone but Biden at this point.

        Warren was the only serious contender who had potential to actually cobble together a big and broad enough coalition, but she's been kneecapped by Buttigieg from the middle and sniped by the DSA folks from the Left to where she can't get big enough. And as neither Bernie nor Pete have a realistic shot of expanding their coalitions to a point where they can be competitive with Biden, I don't see how Biden gets taken down.

        Unless something big changes to alter the present dynamic, this is where we're going to be come Super Tuesday. None of the other candidates have enough support behind them right now to make a big difference for the front-runners by dropping out.

        This is the folly of accelerationist thinking. Putting people into crisis mode doesn't prime them for big, systemic change. It actually makes them fearful and risk averse, making them more likely to be penny-wise and pound foolish. What's more, it puts the adversary in power and enables them to break up leftist capacity for political organizing and lets them cheat their way through elections. So you're obviating peaceful or orderly ways to transition power as well.

        6 votes
      3. Kuromantis
        Link Parent
        Roll credits. Pete and Bloomberg will just swap places with Biden anyway.

        Biden's current position is proof he's toast, not proof he's a winner.

        Roll credits.

        Pete and Bloomberg will just swap places with Biden anyway.

        1 vote
      4. [2]
        Kuromantis
        (edited )
        Link Parent
        Un-roll credits. So... what now?

        Biden's current position is proof he's toast, not proof he's a winner.

        Un-roll credits. So... what now?

        1. Amarok
          Link Parent
          I grab a bottle of bourbon and drink until he looks good enough to vote for. Hmm... I might need an entire case of bourbon for that job. :/

          I grab a bottle of bourbon and drink until he looks good enough to vote for. Hmm... I might need an entire case of bourbon for that job. :/

          2 votes
    2. [3]
      Kuromantis
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      If Biden wins the primary, Trump is not going to hold back on him. He's gonna call him names, and do all the cringe he did in 2016, and it's gonna yield the same results. He's gonna be in for a...

      Oh I wish I shared your optimism. Current trends extended I don't see a realistic scenario where Biden doesn't eke out a win for the nomination.

      If Biden wins the primary, Trump is not going to hold back on him. He's gonna call him names, and do all the cringe he did in 2016, and it's gonna yield the same results. He's gonna be in for a second term and Biden will be gone for good. 4 more years of Trump will either get enough progressive outrage (and voters, more gen-z progressives) to do the trick or it will make it exponentially more likely he is in office when the depression drops, which will make everyone suffer, even rich Trump voters, who might finally be affected by his policies in a negative way, since not a single progressive act will have passed.

      I think history will remember the 2020s as the decade where the Pax Americana ended and we moved from a monopolar world of hegemonic stability to a multi-polar world of great power competition between the US, the EU, China, and Russia. India, South America, and Africa ending up being battlegrounds along various dimensions (ethno-religious tensions, economic models, resource competition, etc.

      True, although it feels like pax Americana died in 9/11. The EU is pretty unstable and don't believe it will be a major player and Russia is firmly an ally of China IMO. The 'the rest of the world becomes a huge battleground' bit is probably gonna be correct (like last time, see US interference in latin America) until the 90s once again. (the 2090s in this case.)

      I also see nothing good happening for the world's Muslims in non-Muslim countries nor non-Muslims in Muslim ones. There seems to be a civilizational tension between Islam and the rest of the world (not just Christendom, but Hindu and Chinese places too). The big battlegrounds will be in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa where we are likely to see continued and redoubled society-wide communal tensions. I expect there will be a purge of Muslims throughout India. There will never be enough to get rid of the Muslims, but there is likely to be a big refugee crisis as it becomes less and less safe for practicing Muslims to live there in peace. I expect this process to be repeated throughout Africa as well and the mutual antipathy will mean similar things happen to Hindus and Buddhists in places like Malaysia or Bangladesh and throughout Africa.

      Yeah, me too. There will probably be no real peace between these religions or ethnic groups, only subjugation or unrest. The main problem is that these ethnic and religious tensions roll over into politics, where ideally everyone should be busy figuring out the best way to make their companies as lucrative as possible to either tax them heavily to spend it on infrastructure and social benefits or to make them give a large part of those profits to their employees so they either have more money or better working conditions. Instead everyone is arguing about which deity is best while enriching themselves with public money and spending it on private luxuries. Well, rules for rulers I guess.

      1 vote
      1. [2]
        Amarok
        Link Parent
        I agree. Frankly, the only two people I see in the field that look to be able to beat Trump are Bernie Sanders and Andrew Yang - and I'm not sure about Bernie. I know Bernie can take it, but I...

        I agree. Frankly, the only two people I see in the field that look to be able to beat Trump are Bernie Sanders and Andrew Yang - and I'm not sure about Bernie. I know Bernie can take it, but I suspect he may end up alienating half of the country when he's going toe to toe with Trump. I worry it'll be a Pyrrhic victory with Bernie - which will result in more government deadlock and him being unable to do a damn thing as President. The Republicans will dig in their heels. They won't move forward.

        Yang is Trump's kryptonite, though. He's exactly what Trump pretends to be - a smart, successful entrepreneur who has 'the best' plans. Unlike Trump, his plans are real and he can explain them for hours on end in excruciating detail if pressed, with multiple pitches, and they make sense. Even better, his pitch to conservatives is insidiously good, they get hooked fast in spite of themselves. At this point Trump can't even finish a proper sentence. Yang is the only guy on that debate stage still making friends with everyone. When those two stand next to each other on stage, people will see which one is the real deal and which one is a charlatan instantly. It'll shatter Trump's reality distortion field and he'll vanish like a wet fart.

        5 votes
        1. blake
          Link Parent
          Indeed, Yang is probably the only one that would easily beat Trump. Maybe Warren/Bernie? But I doubt it, too polarizing. The dems need a unifying candidate, not to dig in even more.

          Indeed, Yang is probably the only one that would easily beat Trump. Maybe Warren/Bernie? But I doubt it, too polarizing. The dems need a unifying candidate, not to dig in even more.

          4 votes
    3. ThisIsMyTildesLogin
      Link Parent
      This. He's clearly the media's favourite candidate.

      Current trends extended I don't see a realistic scenario where Biden doesn't eke out a win for the nomination.

      This. He's clearly the media's favourite candidate.

  3. [12]
    Loire
    Link
    Oil is in for a wild ride. There has been no significant exploration conducted since 2015. The shale boon has filled the void, but shale is turning out to be not as miraculous as once thought....

    Oil is in for a wild ride. There has been no significant exploration conducted since 2015. The shale boon has filled the void, but shale is turning out to be not as miraculous as once thought. With consumption still rising there could be a crunch on available reserves. That said, increased pressure from increasingly affordable renewables could change the math and 2020 could see the slow death of oil as a commodity.

    As an oil worker its going to be crazy either way.

    14 votes
    1. [4]
      Amarok
      Link Parent
      Whatever happened with the Arckaringa basin discovery in Australia from a couple years back? Wasn't that supposed to turn up 230 billion barrels, larger than anything in the entire middle east? I...

      Whatever happened with the Arckaringa basin discovery in Australia from a couple years back? Wasn't that supposed to turn up 230 billion barrels, larger than anything in the entire middle east?

      I am also moved to wonder if there's any truth to the rumors that Alaska has a fuckton of oil off the books that the US government has been saving as an untapped emergency reserve. It'll be a better world if we never need to touch either one of these places and the renewables pick up the reigns.

      9 votes
      1. [3]
        Loire
        Link Parent
        First thing you need to know is that oil reserves estimates are very figurative and blown up to attract investors. I wont get into the math but there's a big difference between the oil in the...

        First thing you need to know is that oil reserves estimates are very figurative and blown up to attract investors. I wont get into the math but there's a big difference between the oil in the ground and what can actually be exploited. Even in depleted oil reservoirs there remains millions of barrels of oil that we just can't extract for a number of scientific reasons.

        The company that discovered Arckaringa estimated a maximum of 233 and a minimum of 3.5 billion barrels. That 233 is fairly fantastical and likely based on a very simple and non-statistical OIP calculation that breaks down to (reservoir thickness) X (reservoir area) X (estimated oil per unit square). The reason this number is fantastical should be obvious. It assumes the rock is heterogenous, it assumes we can actually extract every last drop of oil, it assumes that structural factors are consistent across the basin, etc. Obviously none of this is the case in reality, and for shale reservoirs the numbers become even more suspect. Never trust reserve estimates from a private oil company. National geological surveys tend to be the best resource for this.

        There is also the fact that the basin is in a remote part of the world. There is no infrastructure surrounding it meaning all that expense would have to be swallowed before you can get the oil to market. This causes diminishing returns on investments. Why would you invest there when you can invest in Texas shale that has proven oil in place estimates by the USGS and AAPG with all the infrastructure already in place from a century of oil production, and shale companies with the experience already drilling? I know some people think that we just plug a hole in the ground and the oil comes out but that's absolutely not the case. The amount of science, engineering and brain power that goes into the oil industry is incredibly advanced. Starting from scratch in a region with no real background in oil is a dangerous prospect.

        Finally, and this is the big one, the company that discovered the basin went under in the 2015 oil crash which put a huge stopper on the project going forward. The crash was a game changer for most of the oil industry, most of the smaller companies either went under or are still teetering on the brink, nobody is willing to spend money like they used to, hence why no exploration is being done and none of these risky projects are going forward.

        14 votes
        1. [2]
          Amarok
          Link Parent
          Good to know, thanks for clarifying the waters. <3

          Good to know, thanks for clarifying the waters. <3

          5 votes
          1. Loire
            Link Parent
            Anytime, my friend. I'm always happy to answer questions about the oilfield since most people don't really "get" what's going on out here. Also oil isn't dinosaurs, Imma just take this moment to...

            Anytime, my friend. I'm always happy to answer questions about the oilfield since most people don't really "get" what's going on out here.

            Also oil isn't dinosaurs, Imma just take this moment to throw that out there to tildes 😅.

            7 votes
    2. [7]
      Keegan
      Link Parent
      Are you saying you are an oil worker or that "for an oil worker things will be crazy"? If you are an oil worker could you explain a bit about what you do?

      As an oil worker its going to be crazy either way.

      Are you saying you are an oil worker or that "for an oil worker things will be crazy"? If you are an oil worker could you explain a bit about what you do?

      4 votes
      1. [6]
        Loire
        (edited )
        Link Parent
        Both I guess. It can be pretty hard to conceptualize for someone that has never been on a drilling rig. Hell people in my own company don't really know what we do. The way oil is drilled for there...

        Are you saying you are an oil worker or that "for an oil worker things will be crazy"?

        Both I guess.

        If you are an oil worker could you explain a bit about what you do?

        It can be pretty hard to conceptualize for someone that has never been on a drilling rig. Hell people in my own company don't really know what we do. The way oil is drilled for there is a drill bit which is then screwed into a steering system (either a helical positive displacement pump or something we call a rotary steerable system) that is then screwed into a series of pipe shaped equipment with different functions for different environments which is then screwed into increasing numbers of 30 m (90 ft) sections of basic iron drill pipe that increase the deeper we go. Basically everything is designed to resemble pipe so that drilling fluid can be pumped down the internal diameter and return to surface on the outside (annulus) of the pipe in the gap between the pipe and the hole you made in the rock.

        I deploy, maintain, and supervise the operation of specialized sensors that are built into a section of pipe we screw in above the motor to analyze rock properties in real time as a well is being drilled, which also necessitates the maintanance and understanding of a communication system to return that data to surface. Because there is nothing connecting the downhole equipment to the surface (no cables, or anything goes down there) we use a specialized valve system that creates pressure waves in the drilling fluid that we capture on surface, convert to binary and translate into data points. The primary measurements our tool takes is six axis gravitometer and magnetic field measurements which with a little math magic tells us exactly where the well is underground since we have no other way of seeing down there. We also can measure gamma ray emission by the rock, sonic properties, electrical resistivity, fluid flow measurements, thermal neutron capture which tells us a number of different properties of the rock. I used to be responsible for handling some pretty serious radioactive material, however the U.S. market doesn't make much use of the nuclear tools anymore.

        Anyways we take all that data and correlate it into vertical petrophysical logs which are then analyzed to tell us "where we are" underground, what kind of rock we are seeing, correlate it to known Rock formations, calculate rock properties important to oil and gas production etc. Unfortunately I don't get to do much of that analysis anymore as our clients prefer to do it all in house.

        And thats sort of the gyst (jyst?) edit: gist (Thank you @UniquelyGeneric!) of it.

        I don't get asked about the oilfield so Im willing to expand on it as much as anyone wants, or get more technical if anyone has any questions.

        19 votes
        1. [5]
          asoftbird
          Link Parent
          I'm interested in the communication with the sensors through fluid waves; how do you handle signal noise, and how does it work exactly?

          I'm interested in the communication with the sensors through fluid waves; how do you handle signal noise, and how does it work exactly?

          2 votes
          1. [4]
            Loire
            (edited )
            Link Parent
            So the tool's onboard computer takes the data and converts it to binary code. It then engages the valve in a preprogrammed timing that was set on the surface computer so that both are in sync and...

            So the tool's onboard computer takes the data and converts it to binary code. It then engages the valve in a preprogrammed timing that was set on the surface computer so that both are in sync and understand eachother. Each time the valve closes the positive pressure wave rolls up the hydraulic column to the surface where we have a standard pressure transducer. The transducer converts the measurement to a voltage and transmits that voltage to our surface computer where a number of filters work their magic.

            Some companies use automated filtering systems, while some use human controlled filters, it tends to work in the same way though. They start by setting high- and low- frequency bandpasses to cut anything out of range of the equipment's expected frequency range, which usually eliminates any electrical interference from the rig itself. There is then a shift and combine filter where, by using two pressure transducers at least 50 feet apart, you overlay the signals from each transducer which erases some errant signal noise. Finally there is usually a filter that selects the waveform shape and uses proprietary math to enlarge the "pulses" while doing nothing for the noise (theoretically).

            Of course there is a lot of noise coming from all directions that we can't do much about. Too much vibration downhole? I'm fucked. The surface pumps moving the fluid downhole blows a gasket? I'm absolutely fucked. Bad drilling fluid? Welp. A hole washes out in the drill pipe creating communication between the annulus and the internal fluid? Forget about it.

            On surface if everything is working correctly the computer detects each positive pressure wave peak and the timing between peak 1 and peak 2 represents some combination between 0001 and 1111. Based on proprietary math we fit four bits of data in between each pulse, and then computer knows it's recieving a different "type" data when it measures a five bit gap that corresponds to the list of possible data the computer can expect.

            The math for this telemetry is proprietary and specific to each company, and some very intelligent PhD's have made bank developing them. Some companies have figured out better and faster ways of doing it. Ours tops out at about 3 bits/second in ideal conditions. One of our competitors, supposedly, can do up to 18 in ideal conditions. I don't know if I believe that though.

            A number of companies have come up with specialized drill pipe that has communication cables built into the collar. The idea is rather than fighting with signal noise and distortion and slow transmission speeds your tools downhole can plug in and transmit data the normal way. Unfortunately this pipe is insanely expensive to run and the, less than educated, crews that sling pipe on a rig floor tend to break them so you almost never see them in practice.

            7 votes
            1. [3]
              papasquat
              Link Parent
              Why not just use the pipe itself as an electrical communication path? (I'm assuming it's conductive metal?)

              Why not just use the pipe itself as an electrical communication path? (I'm assuming it's conductive metal?)

              1 vote
              1. [2]
                Loire
                Link Parent
                So that's a really good question and one I don't know the concrete answer to. Kind.of one of those things you accept as "just because". If I had to postulate I am going to guess that its because...

                So that's a really good question and one I don't know the concrete answer to. Kind.of one of those things you accept as "just because".

                If I had to postulate I am going to guess that its because there is no where to connect to the pipe. At the top of the section of pipe it's connected to what we call a "top drive" basically the system that raises it up and down and applies rotation. At the bottom its connected to the next pipe down. The body is smooth bore and in constant rotation.

                There would be no way (as they are currently designed) to hook up to the drill pipe and read the signal.

                1 vote
                1. papasquat
                  Link Parent
                  Interesting. I'm sure there's a good reason, all of that acoustic data transfer hoop jumping you described doesn't sound easy or cheap to do.

                  Interesting. I'm sure there's a good reason, all of that acoustic data transfer hoop jumping you described doesn't sound easy or cheap to do.

                  1 vote
  4. [2]
    envy
    Link
    2020s sees a recession. Recessions typically happen every decade, so it would be very unusual to go 20 years without a recession. The 2020's recession is severe. Reserve banks have limited ability...
    • 2020s sees a recession. Recessions typically happen every decade, so it would be very unusual to go 20 years without a recession.
    • The 2020's recession is severe. Reserve banks have limited ability to limit the severity of the downturn with monetary policy, as rates head below zero and balance sheets continue to be full from previous quantitate easing. Governments have limited desire to limit the severity of the downturn with fiscal policy, as most governments continue to hold significant debt.
    • With the global economy replicating Japan's lost decade, and global warming causing real destruction of value; nationalism, protectionism, and isolationism become increasingly prevalent.
    • Trump continues to attract headlines well after he has left the US Presidency, successfully pinning the blame for the recession and deficit on the democrats. Trump suggests yet again that the constitution should be amended to allow himself a third term, but that goes nowhere.
    • Fox News abandons all pretense at even having the merest thought about the possibility of even considering impartiality, and one of their talk show hosts becomes the next GOP nominee and ultimately next president of the USA.
    • Elon Musk says he knows how to solve all our problems. It involves putting everyones disembodied brain inside containers of ambiotic fluid, and connecting the brain to a neural network. Everyone thinks Musk has finally lost it. Tesla stock crashes after all of Tesla's customers abandon all worldly possessions in favor of the virtual musk Neuron-net.
    • With all the liberals living virtually in the Neuron-net, Republicans naturally blame the Neuron-net for everything, and decide the only solution is to unplug all the brains, effectively killing off what they term "an unholy unnatural abomination."
    • With no one left to blame, Republicans start to blame China again, but it turns out China doesn't care, as while America was falling apart, China recovered from the recession and is now firmly cemented as the sole world power.
    14 votes
    1. ducc
      Link Parent
      You should write a novel.

      You should write a novel.

      4 votes
  5. moocow1452
    (edited )
    Link
    These have been aggregated across many predictions of the future, and their work is not my own. 2020 Interstellar traveler Sonic the Hedgehog travels from the Planet Mobius to Earth to defend the...

    These have been aggregated across many predictions of the future, and their work is not my own.

    2020

    • Interstellar traveler Sonic the Hedgehog travels from the Planet Mobius to Earth to defend the planet against the evil Dr. Ivo Robotnik. (Sonic the Hedgehog)
    • United Defense Force (UDF), a global military alliance established to combat the alien threat, finally achieves a victory over the Mimics at Verdun using newly developed mech-suits. Major William Cage is stuck in a loop in time in order to prevent their retaliation. (Edge of Tomorrow)
    • Brothers Yancy and Raleigh Becket pilot a Jaeger named Gipsy Danger to defend Anchorage from a category-III Kaiju codenamed Knifehead. Yancy dies and Raleigh retires from the Jaeger Defense program. (Pacific Rim)

    2021

    • Moon Colonies founded such as Moon City and Farside 5. (Moon Zero Two)
    • Matilda Asteroid impacts Earth, decimating all terrestrial life. (Seeking a Friend for the End of the World)
    • Johnny Mnemonic discloses cure for "nerve attenuation syndrome," (NAS) discovered by the Pharmakom corporation. (Johnny Mnemonic)

    2022

    • Fifth Annual Purge takes place. Future US Senator and President Charlene "Charlie" Roan survives, and ultimately brings an end to the practice of the Purge. (The Purge/Purge: Election Year)
    • Climate control satellites nearly cause a Geostorm, that threatens to cause cataclysmic damage to the Earth. (Geostorm)
    • The food product Soylent Green is revealed to be composed primarily of recycled human material. (Soylent Green)

    2023

    • Earth's Mightiest Heroes attempt to subvert the efforts of the Mad Titan, Thanos and recover the humans affected by the event now known as "The Blip." (Avengers Endgame)
    • Kitty Pride sends Wolverine back to 1973 in order to subvert the events that led to the creation of the Sentinels. (X-Men: Days of Future Past)
    • Sixth Annual Purge. (The Purge: Anarchy)

    2024

    • American civilians wander a post-nuclear war apocalypse. Canine Telepathy has been observed as a side effect of radiation. (A Boy and His Dog)
    • The remaining vampire covens are on the verge of annihilation by the Lycans. (Underworld Franchise)
    • Connor MacLeod succeeds in taking down the Planetary Shield and Earth is once again able to see the stars. (Highlander II)

    2025

    • Futuresport leagues organized in order to prevent gang warfare. Hawaiian Liberation Organization foiled. (Futuresport)
    • Raleigh and Mako Mori successfully pilot Gypsy Danger into interdimensional breach and seal it, preventing further Kaiju incursions. First Category V Kaiju spotted and neutralized. (Pacific Rim)
    • Negadon hatches on Earth after it's egg was discovered on Mars. It is contained by Ryuichi Narasaki and his super robot prototype, Miroku. Both are lost in the process. (Negadon: The Monster from Mars)

    2026

    • Ark wormhole portal is discovered deep below the Nevada desert. It leads to an abandoned Martian city. (Doom)
    • Metropolis' workers and industrialists are united, following the revelation that noted inventor Rotwang intended to seize control of the city himself, using his robotic automaton to sow discord among the populace. (Metropolis)

    2027

    • A child is born in the UK after 18 years of global infertility. (Children of Men)
    • The Robotech Masters themselves arrive in Earth's Solar System 28 years after their probe made first contact with humanity, and are ultimately fended off by the Army of the Southern Cross. (Robotech)

    2028

    • The Cloverfield Station opens an interdimensional gateway, dropping a massive creature onto the Earth to wreak havoc. (Cloverfield Paradox)
    • OCP commissions a augmented police officer as an alternative to stateside military occupation. Alex Murphy is transformed into the Robocop. (Robocop - 2014)

    2029

    • Major Motoko Kusanagi engages The Puppet Master, an artificial intelligence created by an government organization for political purposes. The Major and Puppet Master become a composite being, the Puppet Master gaining an organic body, and the Major gaining access to their abilities and accesses. (Ghost in the Shell)
    • Space Station Oberon is lost to an electromagnetic storm, inhabitants Leo Davidson and Pericles the Chimpanzee presumed to be among the lost. (Planet of the Apes)
    • Mutants become an endangered species, with no natural births in 25 years, save for clones created by Transigen. (Logan)
    • Skynet gains time travel technology, ability to send Terminators into the past to stop the human resistance. (Terminator Franchise)
    7 votes
  6. [6]
    mrbig
    (edited )
    Link
    I'll speak about Brazil politics. 2020 The far-right agenda will intensify, leading the country to greater polarization. The media will continue to protect the president, and people will support...

    I'll speak about Brazil politics.

    2020

    The far-right agenda will intensify, leading the country to greater polarization. The media will continue to protect the president, and people will support him even in detriment of their own interests. Progressists will despair in the face of great setbacks. Workers will lose at least one important guarantee under the pretense of false gains. Protests will be minimal. The Worker's Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores) will lose precious energy in internal battles, presenting no threat to the right-wing coalition. The former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will try to guide the debate, but will soon discover that his time in jail (fair or not) put an end to his political aspirations. The economy will tank, but the government will feed doctored data to news organizations eager to please the first right-wing president in the last 8 years (and the first truly conservative president since 1995).

    In the face of new criminal laws, police brutality is on the rise and many innocent people will be incarcerated. A giant prison complex will be approved but will not make a dent on the overcrowding.

    There's a surge in the assassination of homosexuals.

    The number of homeless people more than doubled in the last 2 years, and it's going to get much worse. Again, data will be doctored. But we will see it on the streets.

    2021

    A sizeable proportion of the middle class starts to feel the effects of the financial and social crisis. The US dollar on the rise prevents them from buying goods and traveling abroad. There's unrest in the base of the conservative coalition, and an even more radical leadership emerges. The distrust against democracy is profound, and there are talks of bringing the Armed Forces to close the parliaments. None of this comes to fruition, but this show of power is strong enough to silence any opposition that wished to replace the Workers Party on the left spectrum.

    North and North-eastern regions of Brazil suffer from poverty, and in many places the famine that we thought was eradicated makes a horrifying comeback.

    2022

    After numerous corruption scandals, strikes and protests, some enlightened right-wing politicians such as Fernando Henrique Cardoso declare their opposition to the president. In a climate of uncertainty in face of a new election, the vice-president Hamilton Mourão, an Army General, gets the support of the military to stage a coup. Jair Bolsonaro is kept as a puppet.

    2023

    I apply for a Visa to Sweden.

    7 votes
    1. [5]
      Kuromantis
      Link Parent
      Damn that was grim as hell, and I'm Brazilian. Maybe I shouldn't've had all my predictions be political...

      Damn that was grim as hell, and I'm Brazilian. Maybe I shouldn't've had all my predictions be political...

      2 votes
      1. [4]
        mrbig
        Link Parent
        E aí, meu rei! Adivinha meu estado?? rs And it's only natural that we focus on politics these days...

        E aí, meu rei! Adivinha meu estado?? rs

        And it's only natural that we focus on politics these days...

        1 vote
        1. [3]
          Kuromantis
          Link Parent
          Let me guess... Paraná? Most Brazilians who know English and like tech are Usually from some southern or southwestern state according to the r/brasil census

          Let me guess... Paraná? Most Brazilians who know English and like tech are Usually from some southern or southwestern state according to the r/brasil census

          1. [2]
            mrbig
            Link Parent
            Nope. Bahia!

            Nope. Bahia!

            1. Kuromantis
              Link Parent
              Ôloco. Was not expecting that.

              Ôloco. Was not expecting that.

              1 vote
  7. ubergeek
    Link
    I see a pessimistic, but also optimistic view, albeit very locally to the US. I think Trump wins another term. Thisnis followed by recession/depression. This, however leads to an economic uprising...

    I see a pessimistic, but also optimistic view, albeit very locally to the US.

    I think Trump wins another term. Thisnis followed by recession/depression. This, however leads to an economic uprising of the working class as the continue to eschew, but with faster velocity, the current economic system.

    Which returns the US to a buy less, buy smaller, buy local ideology that retains wealth in communities.

    Sounds isolationist, but it's not. Within 100 miles radius, you trade, regardless of borders. But generally, not much further. People are happier, but not economic powerhouses.

    Basically, the US becomes every other nation.

    4 votes