What's gonna happen in the 2020s?
I personally see:
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The enaction of the progressive policies that have been continuosly amplified over the last 5 years during the election of Bernie or Warren (in the US, be it after 2020 or 2024)
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Increasing regulation of the Internet (be it the breakup of tech conglomerates, increased pressure by VC investors for the companies in the red to turn a profit or more surveillance by 3-letter agencies in bad faith)
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Increased tension between the US and China as China becomes increasingly more powerful especially over tech companies
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A recession which throws the item in the top 15 years down the line.
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Automation and AI begin to become more pressing issues during the next depression, leading to people taking candidates like Yang more seriously.
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"Apophis 2029 is gonna hit the earth." "Finally."
Edit: Ok, here's some non-political predictions:
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Mojang runs out of already existing biomes and dimensions to overhaul in minecraft, so they'll shift their development focus to adding more unique biomes, worldgen and mechanical depth and maybe some sort of progression to the game (more complex combat, more dimensions, more bossfights, more mobs like the iron golem with better attacks, more Redstone components, more unique worldgen). By the time this happens, hytale will already be a big competitor and great at al this, causing high controversy that Microsoft is stealing their ideas.
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This also applies to mobile phone makers as they get rid of all notches, bezels and ports and so they either focus on specs and battery life and nirvana is supposedly achieved at 1600$ per phone, in making the phones as cheap as possible , which makes people get mad about the working conditions of the laborers or in even more exclusive wearables like now.
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A new manned moon landing, finally. This time the whole journey will be streamed live on an 8k camera via starlink.
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The (further) normalization of anime, similar to what happened to gaming this decade. More people from more different backgrounds will be watching anime, and they will be less focused on self-depreciation because of it. They will watch anime in public, and will demand more and better anime from the production teams in Japan. The more diverse audience will mean that fanservice will be gradually less effective and non-tanned black characters will appear way more often (and someone will lose their shit over it).
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HN finally comes up with a site redesign, mainly to make it clearer which threads are which. The new design is similar to Tilde's now and HN usage grows 3-fold.
A few random predictions, grouped by year, mainly science & technology focused. Years are approximate. I'll keep adding to this as I feel like it.
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2028
2029
Do you have a blog/twitter? Very curious to follow your thoughts now.
Funny to see the first prediction is already looking very unlikely to come true. Let's hope the second also doesn't come true.
Oh I wish I shared your optimism. Current trends extended I don't see a realistic scenario where Biden doesn't eke out a win for the nomination. I had some hopes for Warren to present a realistic challenge, but between bad-faith sniping from the Jacobin types and Pete's peeling off her moderate supporters with "can't we all just get along" hooey, the "not-Bidens" are too split to hold him back as Sanders has a firm ceiling of support that he lacks the political skills to grow past.
So basically, Biden is the candidate. He probably wins in a squeaker. Our best hope is that Vice President Stacy Abrams manages to succeed him, but there will be no realistic shot of having a legislative majority so nothing gets done. The underlying tensions that led to the Trump era do not get resolved and the United States creeps closer to irrelevance on the world stage.
I think history will remember the 2020s as the decade where the Pax Americana ended and we moved from a monopolar world of hegemonic stability to a multi-polar world of great power competition between the US, the EU, China, and Russia. India, South America, and Africa ending up being battlegrounds along various dimensions (ethno-religious tensions, economic models, resource competition, etc.
I also see nothing good happening for the world's Muslims in non-Muslim countries nor non-Muslims in Muslim ones. There seems to be a civilizational tension between Islam and the rest of the world (not just Christendom, but Hindu and Chinese places too). The big battlegrounds will be in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa where we are likely to see continued and redoubled society-wide communal tensions. I expect there will be a purge of Muslims throughout India. There will never be enough to get rid of the Muslims, but there is likely to be a big refugee crisis as it becomes less and less safe for practicing Muslims to live there in peace. I expect this process to be repeated throughout Africa as well and the mutual antipathy will mean similar things happen to Hindus and Buddhists in places like Malaysia or Bangladesh and throughout Africa. (Pakistan's already basically purged itself of its Hindu and Buddhist minorities so that's a moot point).
The new economic system will start to take shape. It's already kind of there, but it will be hard to deny by the end of 2029 that whatever system we have will no longer be "capitalism" anymore (if you characterize capitalism as a market based economy rooted in free-enterprise and entrepreneurism). It'll be something like corporate feudalism in the formerly capitalist West or techno-fascism in China and the countries under its orbit.
On the sunny-side, I see race and gender relations in the US getting better. But I also see extremists continuing to act and coopt the political system. So the society-wide commitments to equality will probably not be reflected in our political leadership. The extreme conservative packing of the federal courts will guarantee that actual equal protection laws stay off the books for a good long time and voting rights continue to be denied to people of color and the young. I will be very surprised if people who don't own property are permitted to vote by 2050.
The frontrunners at this point in the democratic primary literally never win the nomination. Biden's current position is proof he's toast, not proof he's a winner. The only people paying attention are hardcore democrats and political wonks - a tiny self-important fraction of the electorate that are, frankly, irrelevant to the election results. The rest don't start paying attention until after Iowa votes. All the poll numbers get a reboot from scratch at that point.
Failing some rather spectacular capitalism reforms that put FDR's new deal to shame, we're going straight into the riots that came with the first industrial revolution, only on a larger and nastier scale, since the guns are better this time around and there are orders of magnitude more displaced Americans to use them. Look forward to the entire interstate system being shut down on a semi-regular basis by striking truckers toting guns. We're going to get the reforms either way, it's just a question of if we're smart enough to sidestep the violence that comes with them this time around. Look into labor day and weep if this sounds crazy.
I share your gloom with the forecast for the rest of the world, though. There are some particularly troubling possibilities emerging in the world of climate change geopolitics.
Al Gore and Hillary Clinton?
Honestly the n-sizes on these claims are too low and non-generalizable so we can't be making pronouncements like these. It is good to be skeptical of polling since the world Can change a lot between now and when people cast votes/caucus, but we also need to look at what people's realistic pathways are based on momentum and I'm not seeing a route for anyone but Biden at this point.
Warren was the only serious contender who had potential to actually cobble together a big and broad enough coalition, but she's been kneecapped by Buttigieg from the middle and sniped by the DSA folks from the Left to where she can't get big enough. And as neither Bernie nor Pete have a realistic shot of expanding their coalitions to a point where they can be competitive with Biden, I don't see how Biden gets taken down.
Unless something big changes to alter the present dynamic, this is where we're going to be come Super Tuesday. None of the other candidates have enough support behind them right now to make a big difference for the front-runners by dropping out.
This is the folly of accelerationist thinking. Putting people into crisis mode doesn't prime them for big, systemic change. It actually makes them fearful and risk averse, making them more likely to be penny-wise and pound foolish. What's more, it puts the adversary in power and enables them to break up leftist capacity for political organizing and lets them cheat their way through elections. So you're obviating peaceful or orderly ways to transition power as well.
Roll credits.
Pete and Bloomberg will just swap places with Biden anyway.
Un-roll credits. So... what now?
I grab a bottle of bourbon and drink until he looks good enough to vote for. Hmm... I might need an entire case of bourbon for that job. :/
If Biden wins the primary, Trump is not going to hold back on him. He's gonna call him names, and do all the cringe he did in 2016, and it's gonna yield the same results. He's gonna be in for a second term and Biden will be gone for good. 4 more years of Trump will either get enough progressive outrage (and voters, more gen-z progressives) to do the trick or it will make it exponentially more likely he is in office when the depression drops, which will make everyone suffer, even rich Trump voters, who might finally be affected by his policies in a negative way, since not a single progressive act will have passed.
True, although it feels like pax Americana died in 9/11. The EU is pretty unstable and don't believe it will be a major player and Russia is firmly an ally of China IMO. The 'the rest of the world becomes a huge battleground' bit is probably gonna be correct (like last time, see US interference in latin America) until the 90s once again. (the 2090s in this case.)
Yeah, me too. There will probably be no real peace between these religions or ethnic groups, only subjugation or unrest. The main problem is that these ethnic and religious tensions roll over into politics, where ideally everyone should be busy figuring out the best way to make their companies as lucrative as possible to either tax them heavily to spend it on infrastructure and social benefits or to make them give a large part of those profits to their employees so they either have more money or better working conditions. Instead everyone is arguing about which deity is best while enriching themselves with public money and spending it on private luxuries. Well, rules for rulers I guess.
I agree. Frankly, the only two people I see in the field that look to be able to beat Trump are Bernie Sanders and Andrew Yang - and I'm not sure about Bernie. I know Bernie can take it, but I suspect he may end up alienating half of the country when he's going toe to toe with Trump. I worry it'll be a Pyrrhic victory with Bernie - which will result in more government deadlock and him being unable to do a damn thing as President. The Republicans will dig in their heels. They won't move forward.
Yang is Trump's kryptonite, though. He's exactly what Trump pretends to be - a smart, successful entrepreneur who has 'the best' plans. Unlike Trump, his plans are real and he can explain them for hours on end in excruciating detail if pressed, with multiple pitches, and they make sense. Even better, his pitch to conservatives is insidiously good, they get hooked fast in spite of themselves. At this point Trump can't even finish a proper sentence. Yang is the only guy on that debate stage still making friends with everyone. When those two stand next to each other on stage, people will see which one is the real deal and which one is a charlatan instantly. It'll shatter Trump's reality distortion field and he'll vanish like a wet fart.
Indeed, Yang is probably the only one that would easily beat Trump. Maybe Warren/Bernie? But I doubt it, too polarizing. The dems need a unifying candidate, not to dig in even more.
This. He's clearly the media's favourite candidate.
Whatever happened with the Arckaringa basin discovery in Australia from a couple years back? Wasn't that supposed to turn up 230 billion barrels, larger than anything in the entire middle east?
I am also moved to wonder if there's any truth to the rumors that Alaska has a fuckton of oil off the books that the US government has been saving as an untapped emergency reserve. It'll be a better world if we never need to touch either one of these places and the renewables pick up the reigns.
Good to know, thanks for clarifying the waters. <3
I'm interested in the communication with the sensors through fluid waves; how do you handle signal noise, and how does it work exactly?
Why not just use the pipe itself as an electrical communication path? (I'm assuming it's conductive metal?)
Interesting. I'm sure there's a good reason, all of that acoustic data transfer hoop jumping you described doesn't sound easy or cheap to do.
You should write a novel.
These have been aggregated across many predictions of the future, and their work is not my own.
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
I'll speak about Brazil politics.
2020
The far-right agenda will intensify, leading the country to greater polarization. The media will continue to protect the president, and people will support him even in detriment of their own interests. Progressists will despair in the face of great setbacks. Workers will lose at least one important guarantee under the pretense of false gains. Protests will be minimal. The Worker's Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores) will lose precious energy in internal battles, presenting no threat to the right-wing coalition. The former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will try to guide the debate, but will soon discover that his time in jail (fair or not) put an end to his political aspirations. The economy will tank, but the government will feed doctored data to news organizations eager to please the first right-wing president in the last 8 years (and the first truly conservative president since 1995).
In the face of new criminal laws, police brutality is on the rise and many innocent people will be incarcerated. A giant prison complex will be approved but will not make a dent on the overcrowding.
There's a surge in the assassination of homosexuals.
The number of homeless people more than doubled in the last 2 years, and it's going to get much worse. Again, data will be doctored. But we will see it on the streets.
2021
A sizeable proportion of the middle class starts to feel the effects of the financial and social crisis. The US dollar on the rise prevents them from buying goods and traveling abroad. There's unrest in the base of the conservative coalition, and an even more radical leadership emerges. The distrust against democracy is profound, and there are talks of bringing the Armed Forces to close the parliaments. None of this comes to fruition, but this show of power is strong enough to silence any opposition that wished to replace the Workers Party on the left spectrum.
North and North-eastern regions of Brazil suffer from poverty, and in many places the famine that we thought was eradicated makes a horrifying comeback.
2022
After numerous corruption scandals, strikes and protests, some enlightened right-wing politicians such as Fernando Henrique Cardoso declare their opposition to the president. In a climate of uncertainty in face of a new election, the vice-president Hamilton Mourão, an Army General, gets the support of the military to stage a coup. Jair Bolsonaro is kept as a puppet.
2023
I apply for a Visa to Sweden.
Damn that was grim as hell, and I'm Brazilian. Maybe I shouldn't've had all my predictions be political...
E aí, meu rei! Adivinha meu estado?? rs
And it's only natural that we focus on politics these days...
Let me guess... Paraná? Most Brazilians who know English and like tech are Usually from some southern or southwestern state according to the r/brasil census
Nope. Bahia!
Ôloco. Was not expecting that.
I see a pessimistic, but also optimistic view, albeit very locally to the US.
I think Trump wins another term. Thisnis followed by recession/depression. This, however leads to an economic uprising of the working class as the continue to eschew, but with faster velocity, the current economic system.
Which returns the US to a buy less, buy smaller, buy local ideology that retains wealth in communities.
Sounds isolationist, but it's not. Within 100 miles radius, you trade, regardless of borders. But generally, not much further. People are happier, but not economic powerhouses.
Basically, the US becomes every other nation.