Picture: One Battle After Another

This became a tight race with Sinners late in the game. The obvious parallel here is 1917 and Parasite. 1917 won PGA, DGA, and BAFTA just like OBAA did. Parasite won SAG Ensemble and went on to win Picture from there.

I’m betting on OBAA being stronger than 1917. Notably 1917 was never in contention to win a Screenplay or an Acting award the way OBAA is. And OBAA is nominated in Film Editing and the front-runner in that category which 1917 missed.

I have correctly predicted every Picture winner since The Shape of Water but this is the first year where I’m in danger of losing that streak.

Director: Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another

Whether Sinners ends up winning Picture, I think this goes to PTA regardless.

Original Screenplay: Sinners

Adapted Screenplay: One Battle After Another

Lead Actor: Michael B. Jordan - Sinners

After Chalamet shot himself in the foot with his unorthodox press run for Marty Supreme, Jordan is the only one in the category going in with an industry award as the BAFTA awarded a British actor.

I think Chalamet really fucked up his chances to win for a while and will now win well into his 40s or even into his 50s. He should have played it better.

Lead Actress: Jessie Buckley - Hamnet

Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan - Weapons

After winning SAG it seems like it’s heading that way. Mosaku won the BAFTA but she had a homefield advantage. This is also an opportunity to award a veteran actress who never got her due, and will be supported by young people who enjoyed Weapons.

Supporting Actor: Sean Penn - One Battle After Another

Despite not campaigning and not appearing at the majority of the award shows (or perhaps because of that) Penn ended up winning both the SAG and BAFTA. Essentially sleepwalking to his third Oscar.

Original Score: Sinners

Original Song: Golden from KPop Demon Hunters

Sound: F1

Casting: Sinners

Production Design: Frankenstein

Cinematography: One Battle After Another

Sinners was originally the front-runner and would have made history as the first female cinematographer to win. However it lost both the ASC and BAFTA for Cinematography.

Makeup and Hairstyling: Frankenstein

Costume Design: Frankenstein

Film Editing: One Battle After Another

Sinners won the ACE Drama awards and OBAA won the ACE Comedy award. This category used to be correlated with Sound but since the sound categories were merged it has now correlated with Picture.

VFX: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Animated Feature: KPop Demon Hunters

Documentary Feature: The Perfect Neighbor

International Feature: Sentimental Value

Picture

• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Hamnet
• Sentimental Value
• Marty Supreme
• Frankenstein
• Train Dreams
• Bugonia
• F1
• The Secret Agent

Director

• Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
• Ryan Coogler - Sinners
• Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme
• Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value
• Guillermo del Toro - Frankenstein

Original Screenplay

• Sinners
• Sentimental Value
• Marty Supreme
• Weapons
• The Secret Agent

Adapted Screenplay

• One Battle After Another
• Hamnet
• Bugonia
• Frankenstein
• Train Dreams

Lead Actress

• Jessie Buckley - Hamnet
• Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
• Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value
• Chase Infiniti - One Battle After Another
• Emma Stone - Bugonia

Lead Actor

• Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme
• Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another
• Michael B Jordan - Sinners
• Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent
• Jesse Plemons - Bugonia

Supporting Actress

• Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another
• Amy Madigan - Weapons
• Odessa A'zion - Marty Supreme
• Wumni Mosaku - Sinners
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentimental Value

Supporting Actor

• Benicio Del Toro - One Battle After Another
• Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value
• Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein
• Sean Penn - One Battle After Another
• Paul Mescal - Hamnet

Casting

• Sinners
• One Battle After Another
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• Frankenstein

Cinematography

• Sinners
• One Battle After Another
• Frankenstein
• Marty Supreme
• Train Dreams

Costume Design

• Frankenstein
• Sinners
• Wicked: For Good
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme

Film Editing

• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Marty Supreme
• F1
• Frankenstein

Makeup and Hairstyling

• Frankenstein
• Wicked: For Good
• Sinners
• The Smashing Machine
• One Battle After Another

Production Design

• Frankenstein
• Wicked: For Good
• Sinners
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme

Original Score

• Sinners
• One Battle After Another
• Frankenstein
• Marty Supreme
• F1

Original Song

• "Golden" from KPop Demon Hunters
• "I Lied To You" from Sinners
• "The Girl in the Bubble" from Wicked: For Good
• "Dear Me" from Diane Warren: Relentless
• "Drive" from F1

Sound

• F1
• Sinners
• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• One Battle After Another
• Frankenstein

Visual Effects

• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• Frankenstein
• Superman
• F1
• The Lost Bus

Animated Feature

• KPop Demon Hunters
• Zootopia 2
• Arco
• Elio
• Little Amelie or the Character of Rain

Documentary Feature

• The Perfect Neighbor
• 2000 Meters to Andriivka
• The Alabama Solution
• Cover-Up
• Apocalypse in the Tropics

International Film

• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• It Was Just an Accident
• No Other Choice
• Sirat