Picture: Anora

This is more of a fluid race than we have been used to this decade so far. Conclave could win here. PGA is the only guild that uses the voting system the Oscar's does, and Anora won there. However, Conclave won SAG Ensemble and is guaranteed a screenplay win and that's all that Spotlight needed to win in a fractured field.

Director: Sean Baker - Anora

Again, director was split at this year's BAFTA and DGA. With Corbet (Brutalist) winning the former and Baker winning the latter. DGA has determined the race most of the time when the category is split like this.

Original Screenplay: Anora written by Sean Baker

It won WGA, and it's closest competition would be A Real Pain which did not receive a Best Picture nomination. Had The Substance won Original Screenplay in BAFTA this would be more in jeopardy.

Adapted Screenplay: Conclave Screenplay by Peter Straughan. Based on the novel by Robert Harris.

Swept.

Lead Actor: Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown

I'm going with the SAG four. SAG and BAFTA have alternated these past few years and the Academy went with all the BAFTA winners last year (which is how Stone beat Gladstone). So I'm sticking with this pattern and saying Chalamet beats Brody. (fun fact: Chalamet would be the youngest winner in this category, Adrian Brody currently holds that title for his performance in The Pianist).

Lead Actress: Demi Moore - The Substance

Again, SAG. I think Moore has the narrative unlike Mikey Madison who is her closest competition.

Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain

Swept.

Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez

Swept.

Cinematography: The Brutalist

It won the BAFTA. Maria and Nosferatu are the only other films with wins but they're not Picture nominees and the winner in this category is usually a Picture nominee.

Original Score: The Brutalist

Original Song: "El Mal" from Emilia Perez

Costume Design: Wicked

Production Design: Wicked

Hair and Make-up: The Substance

VFX: Dune: Part Two

Sound: Dune: Part Two

BAFTA and CAS split here, with CAS going with A Complete Unknown. ACU just doesn't make much sense as a Sound winner to me. La La Land couldn't even win a sound award so I'm sticking with the bombastic sound here.

Film Editing: Conclave

Again, not a clear winner here. Conclave won BAFTA and the editors guild will announce winners after the Oscar ceremony. There used to be a correlation in this category with Sound, but since the merging of Sound Editing and Sound Mixing into one category this correlation has gotten weaker. EEAAO won here without a Sound nomination, and Oppenheimer won here despite losing Sound to Zone of Interest.

International Feature: Emilia Perez

Some people seem to think that I'm Still Here will win here due to the controversies surrounding Emilia Perez. It's clear that those controversies did not affect Saldana's chances so I don't see why it would ruin them here.

Animated Feature: The Wild Robot

Another split category. The Golden Globes went with Flow while the BAFTA's went with Wallace and Gromit. When the category is this split it goes to the PGA winner (Toy Story 4 won here having only won PGA).

Documentary Feature: No Other Land

I don't know much about this category, but this documentary has drummed up quite a bit of buzz. So I'll go with this.

Picture:

1. Emilia Perez
2. Conclave
3. The Brutalist
4. Anora
5. A Complete Unknown
6. The Substance
7. Wicked
8. Dune Part Two
9. A Real Pain
10. Nickel Boys

Director:

1. Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
2. Jacque Audiard - Emilia Perez
3. Edward Berger - Conclave
4. Sean Baker - Anora
5. Coralie Fargeat - The Substance

Original Screenplay:

1. Anora
2. The Substance
3. A Real Pain
4. The Brutalist
5. Challengers

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Conclave
2. Emilia Perez
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Nickel Boys
5. Dune Part Two

Lead Actor:

1. Adrian Brody - The Brutalist
2. Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
3. Ralph Fiennes - Conclave
4. Colman Domingo - Sing Sing
5. Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice

Lead Actress:

1. Demi Moore - The Substance
2. Sofia Gascon - Emilia Perez
3. Mikey Madison - Anora
4. Cynthia Erivo - Wicked
5. Fernanda Torres - I’m Still Here

Supporting Actor:

1. Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
2. Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown
3. Guy Pearce - The Brutalist
4. Yuriy Borisov - Anora
5. Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice

Supporting Actress:

1. Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez
2. Ariana Grande - Wicked
3. Margaret Qualley - The Substance
4. Isabella Rosellini - Conclave
5. Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown

Film Editing:

1. Emilia Perez
2. Conclave
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Wicked
5. The Substance

Cinematography:

1. The Brutalist
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Emilia Perez
4. Nosferatu
5. Conclave

Sound:

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Wicked
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Alien: Romulus
5. Gladiator II

Original Score:

1. The Brutalist
2. Conclave
3. The Wild Robot
4. Emilia Perez
5. Challengers

Original Song:

1. El Mal from Emilia Perez
2. Kiss the Sky from The Wild Robot
3. Mi Camino from Emilia Perez
4. The Journey from The Six Triple Eight
5. Compress/Repress from Challengers

Costume Design:

1. Wicked
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Nosferatu
4. A Complete Unknown
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Hair & Make-up:

1. The Substance
2. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
3. Wicked
4. Nosferatu
5. A Different Man

Production Design:

1. Wicked
2. Dune: Part Two
3. The Brutalist
4. Conclave
5. Nosferatu

VFX:

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
3. Wicked
4. Alien: Romulus
5. Twisters

Animated Feature:

1. Flow
2. The Wild Robot
3. Inside Out 2
4. Memoir of a Snail
5. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

International Feature:

1. Emilia Perez
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
3. I'm Still Here
4. Kneecap
5. Flow

We are officially one week away from the Oscar's and all the precursors (being the award shows that happen before the Oscar's) have come and gone. Here's where I think the Oscar's will go on March 10th.

Picture: Oppenheimer

It's a done deal.

Director: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer

Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall

After unexpectedly winning the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay it immediately became the front-runner in the category besting previous front-runners The Holdovers and Barbie (which got switched over to Adapted anyway). Having picked up the BAFTA in the same category, it's locked.

Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction

Also having won the BAFTA for Adapted Screenplay, beating out Poor Things and Oppenheimer (which BAFTA loved) this is also pretty clearly the favorite to win here. Two weak winners in a row for this category imo.

Lead Actor: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

This seemed obvious for a long time, but now that he's swept all the awards it's a done deal..

Lead Actress: Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon

This is actually a tight race between her and Emma Stone in Poor Things. They both won the Globe and Stone won the BAFTA while Gladstone won SAG. Gladstone wasn't even nominated at BAFTA (despite the jury being there to nominate minorities) which complicated the race. However, with SAG having gone after BAFTA I think that'll have more influence and give Gladstone more momentum. Also, most of the time when SAG gives Best Ensemble to the eventual Picture winner they tend to go 4/4 in the acting categories.

Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer

He swept like Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

Supporting Actress: D'avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

Also swept.

Original Score: Oppenheimer

Original Song: What Was I Made For? from Barbie

Sound: Oppenheimer

Production Design: Poor Things

Cinematography: Oppenheimer

Makeup & Hairstyling: Maestro

Costume Design: Barbie

Poor Things won BAFTA, however BAFTA as a whole did not like Barbie very much. And there's too much iconography attached to the film in this category that I think the Oscar's will go for it over Poor Things.

Film Editing: Oppenheimer

Visual Effects: The Creator

After the branch snubbed both Oppenheimer and Poor Things, it muddled the winner in this category. People initially thought Guardians of the Galaxy 3 would be the winner. But there's pretty severe anti-superhero bias in the category. The Creator won at the VFX guild, it's flashy, it looks good, and it's somewhat of a "serious" movie.

Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

This isn't as clear as a race as I thought it would have been. Globes and BAFTA went with Boy and the Heron in this category while Critic's Choice and PGA went with Spider-Verse. The Oscar's usually goes populist in this category (eg they went with Toy Story 4 when Globes and BAFTA went in a more artsy direction). So I'm sticking with Spider-Man here.

Documentary Feature: 20 Days in Mariupol

Live Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

This would give Wes Anderson his first Oscar win, if the Academy doesn't blue ball him.

Animated Short: Letter to a Pig

Documentary Short: The ABC's of Book Banning

Nominations are coming out on Tuesday. Here's my final predictions on what gets in:

Picture

1. Oppenheimer
2. The Holdovers
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Poor Things
5. Barbie
6. Maestro
7. Anatomy of a Fall
8. Past Lives
9. The Zone of Interest
10. American Fiction

Director

1. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
2. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things
4. Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall
5. Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. Anatomy of a Fall
4. Maestro
5. May December

Adapted Screenplay

1. Poor Things
2. Barbie
3. Oppenheimer
4. American Fiction
5. Killers of the Flower Moon

Lead Actor

1. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
3. Bradley Cooper - Maestro
4. Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction
5. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon

Lead Actress

1. Emma Stone - Poor Things
2. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
4. Carey Mulligan - Maestro
5. Margot Robbie - Barbie

Supporting Actor

1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
3. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
5. Dominic Sessa - The Holdovers

Supporting Actress

1. D'avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
3. Sandra Huller - The Zone of Interest
4. Penelope Cruz - Ferrari
5. Florence Pugh - Oppenheimer

Film Editing

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Barbie
5. The Holdovers

Sound

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Maestro
4. The Zone of Interest
5. Ferrari

Cinematography

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Maestro
5. The Zone of Interest

Costume Design

1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Oppenheimer
5. Napoleon

Production Design

1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Oppenheimer
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Napoleon

Make-up and Hairstyling

1. Oppenheimer
2. Maestro
3. Poor Things
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Golda

Original Score

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Zone of Interest
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Original Song

1. I'm Just Ken from Barbie
2. What Was I Made For? from Barbie
3. Dance the Night from Barbie
4. Road to Freedom from Rustin
5. Quiet Eyes from Past Lives

VFX

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
2. The Creator
3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
4. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
5. Poor Things

Animated Feature

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2. The Boy and the Heron
3. Elemental
4. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
5. Nimona

Documentary

1. American Symphony
2. 20 Days in Mariupol
3. Four Daughters
4. Beyond Utopia
5. The Eternal Memory

International Film

1. The Zone of Interest
2. Society of Snow
3. Fallen Leaves
4. The Taste of Things
5. Perfect Days

I just realized I haven't made a full post with Oscar predictions since January (did one for the Globes and one for the Guild). Well now that we're half-way through the year, here's where I think the current Oscar race stands:

Picture:

1. The Holdovers
2. Oppenheimer
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Barbie
6. Past Lives
7. The Zone of Interest
8. The Killer
9. Saltburn
10. Anatomy of a Fall

Director:

1. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
2. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
4. Denis Villenueve - Dune: Part Two
5. Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay:

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. Saltburn
4. Anatomy of a Fall
5. May-December

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Barbie
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Dune: Part Two
5. The Zone of Interest

Lead Actor:

1. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Barry Keoghan - Saltburn
5. Colman Domingo - Rustin

Lead Actress:

1. Margot Robbie - Barbie
2. Greta Lee - Past Lives
3. Natalie Portman - May-December
4. Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
5. Annette Bening - Nyad

Supporting Actor:

1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
4. Jesse Plemmons - Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Teo Yoo - Past Lives

Supporting Actress:

1. D'avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
4. Julianne Moore - May-December
5. Rosamund Pike - Saltburn

Cinematography:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Killer
5. The Zone of Interest

Film Editing:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part Two
4. The Holdovers
5. The Killer

Sound:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Killer
5. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part One

Original Score:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. The Zone of Interest
4. The Killer
5. Past Lives

Original Song:

1. "Dance the Night" from Barbie
2. "Quiet Eyes" from Past Lives
3. "More of Us" from Wish
4. "Gonna be You" from 80 For Brady
5. Original Song from Wonka

Production Design:

1. Barbie
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Oppenheimer
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Wonka

Costume Design:

1. Barbie
2. Oppenheimer
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Wonka
5. Killers of the Flower Moon

Hair and Make-up:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Guaridans of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. Renfield
5. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

VFX:

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Oppenheimer
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part One
5. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Animated Feature:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2. How Do You Live?
3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
4. Wish
5. Nimona

Picture:

1. The Holdovers
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part 2
4. Oppenheimer
5. Past Lives
6. Barbie
7. The Zone of Interest
8. May/December
9. Saltburn
10. The Killer

Director:

1. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
3. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
4. Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part 2
5. Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay:

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. May/December
4. Saltburn
5. Drive Away Dolls

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Barbie
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part 2
4. Oppenheimer
5. The Zone of Interest

Lead Actor:

1. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
2. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Barry Keoghan - Saltburn
5. Colman Domingo - Rustin

Lead Actress:

1. Margot Robbie - Barbie
2. Greta Lee - Past Lives
3. Natalie Portman - May/December
4. Annette Bening - Nyad
5. Zendaya - Challengers

Supporting Actor:

1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
4. Jesse Plemmons - Killers of the Flower Moon
5. John Magaro - Past Lives

Supporting Actress:

1. D’avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
4. Julianne Moore - May/December
5. Rosamund Pike - Saltburn

Picture: Everything Everywhere All At Once

It swept the guilds. Last movie to do that was Birdman. I don’t even know what would win in its place anymore. All Quiet on the Western Front? Nah that’s missing too many things. EEAAO’s got this in the bag.

Director: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All At Once

DGA winners, next.

Original Screenplay: Everything Everywhere All At Once written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert

I want to predict Banshees winning at least here. But Three Billboards was a stronger movie (it won Globe Drama, SAG Ensemble, and BAFTA Film) and McDonagh lost to Get Out and EEAAO has way more passion.

Adapted Screenplay: All Quiet on the Western Front screenplay by Edward Berger, Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson. Based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque.

BAFTA has been way more accurate at “predicting” the winner in this category than either Critic’s Choice or WGA. Women Talking only has two nominations, was 10th in Picture, and didn’t even get a BAFTA nomination. So I think the stronger movie here will win.

Lead Actor: Austin Butler - Elvis

BAFTA + Globe is a hell of a combo. Fraser would be his biggest competition but the last actor to win for a movie that was not in Picture was Jeff Bridges.

Lead Actress: Cate Blanchett - TÁR

Ditto. Yeoh could win here, but Globe and BAFTA has proved an unbeatable combo in recent years.

Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin

BAFTA winner again. Bassett was a red herring, Curtis would be a weak winner and has been annoyingly campaigning all season. Mark Rylance went on to win the Oscar for Bridge of Spies after only having won BAFTA in a similarly divided field.

Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once

He lost BAFTA, but he was the one constant winner in this category. If EEAAO walks away with only one acting award, it’ll be this one.

Animated Feature: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Swept.

International Feature: All Quiet on the Western Front

Only Picture nominee.

Documentary: Navalny

PGA + BAFTA winner.

Original Score: All Quiet on the Western Front

Kind of an open category. Babylon won the Globe, but All Quiet won BAFTA. Any of the nominees could potentially win. But I’ll stay safe and stick with the BAFTA winner.

Original Song: Naatu Naatu from RRR

Nobody seems to care about any of the other songs. RRR has the passion. Although I can see the case for any of the other nominees winning.

Sound: Top Gun: Maverick

Locked.

Production Design: Babylon

Swept, locked.

Cinematography: Elvis

It’s the only movie to meet all the statistical requirements. It got nominated at all the precursors. It got a production design nomination. And it won at the cinematographer’s guild. It’s also really colorful and flashy. All Quiet would be the closest competition, but that missed a nomination at the guild. This should be Top Gun’s award, but oh well.

Makeup and Hairstyling: Elvis

Swept.

Costume Design: Elvis

Won BAFTA. Black Panther would be its closest competition but that lost at the guild to EEAAO. Elvis fits the stats better (production design nom).

Film Editing: Top Gun: Maverick

EEAAO has so far swept these awards, winning BAFTA, ACE Comedy, and Critic’s Choice. However, there is a strong correlation between sound and film editing. The last film editing winner to win without winning Sound was Argo, which still had sound nominations which EEAAO does not have. The last film editing winner without a sound nomination was Traffik in 2002. EEAAO could buck the trend, as it will be a Picture winner just like Argo. But, I’m sticking with the sound stat. Last year Dune did not win a single film editing award, but it won the Oscar due to the correlation. And Top Gun at least has ACE Drama, which is the only precursor Bohemian Rhapsody had before it went on to win the Oscar.

Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water

Swept.

Animated Short: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and the Horse

Live-Action Short: Le Pupille

Documentary Short: The Elephant Whisperers

This current season is not over yet, but with a new year comes new movies and new awards predictions. These were the early predictions last year. These are earlier however, so let’s see how it goes this time. I’m only doing a few major categories.

Picture

1. The Holdovers
2. Oppenheimer
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Past Lives
6. Maestro
7. Poor Things
8. Blitz
9. May-December
10. The Killer

Director

1. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
2. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part Two
4. Celine Song - Past Lives
5. Todd Haynes - May-December

Original Screenplay

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. Oppenheimer
4. May-December
5. Maestro

Adapted Screenplay

1. Poor Things
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part Two
4. The Killer
5. Rustin

Lead Actor

1. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
2. Bradley Cooper - Maestro
3. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
4. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Colman Domingo - Rustin

Lead Actress

1. Saoirsa Ronan - Blitz
2. Emma Stone - Poor Things
3. Greta Lee - Past Lives
4. Natalie Portman - May-December
5. Carrie Mulligan - Maestro

For me, as much as I didn’t care for the film, This is a Life from EEAAO getting into original song would make me incredibly happy. It’s such a good song and indie songs like it rarely get nominated.

Another one would be Glass Onion getting into Supporting Actress and Costumes.

pending

Picture

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. TÁR
4. The Fabelmans
5. Top Gun: Maverick
6. Elvis
7. Avatar: The Way of Water
8. The Whale
9. All Quiet on the Western Front
10. Triangle of Sadness

Director

1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
2. Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Todd Field - TÁR
5. Edward Berger - All Quiet on the Western Front

Original Screenplay

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. TÁR
4. The Fabelmans
5. Triangle of Sadness

Adapted Screenplay

1. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. The Whale
3. Living
4. Glass Onion
5. Women Talking

Lead Actor

1. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
3. Austin Butler - Elvis
4. Bill Nighy - Living
5. Hugh Jackman - The Son

Lead Actress

1. Cate Blanchett - TÁR
2. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Ana De Armas - Blonde
4. Danielle Deadwyler - Till
5. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
3. Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Hong Chau - The Whale
5. Dolly De Leon - Triangle of Sadness

Best Supporting Actor

1. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
5. Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse

Cinematography

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. The Batman
3. Empire of Light
4. Elvis
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Costume Design

1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
5. The Fabelmans

Film Editing

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Elvis
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. TÁR

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. The Whale
2. Elvis
3. Babylon
4. The Batman
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Production Design

1. Babylon
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. The Fabelmans
4. Elvis
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Original Score

1. Babylon
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. The Fabelmans
4. Pinocchio
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Original Song

1. Naatu Naatu - RRR
2. Hold My Hand - Top Gun: Maverick
3. Ciao Papa - Pinocchio
4. Applause - Tell it Like a Woman
5. This is a Life - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Sound

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Elvis
4. The Batman
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

VFX

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
4. The Batman
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Animated Feature

1. Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
5. Inu-Oh

Documentary

1. All The Beauty and the Bloodshed
2. Fire of Love
3. All That Breathes
4. Moonage Daydream
5. Descendant

International Film

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
2. Decision to Leave (South Korea)
3. Saint Omer (France)
4. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
5. EO (Poland)

Nominations for both the Golden Globes and the Critic’s Choice have been released.

Also, today, the shortlist in many categories has also been released.

Here’s where I think the race is going and, unlike my other lists, I have an explainer for all the predictions.

Picture

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. The Fabelmans
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Avatar: The Way of Water
6. Tár
7. Elvis
8. Babylon
9. Women Talking
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Alt: Triangle of Sadness

The top 9 are all pretty clearly happening. Even with mixed-to-negative reviews Babylon is still going to get a lot of below-the-line nominations and one or two acting nominations which would be more than enough to get a Picture nomination. In a similar way to Vice or Don’t Look Up, Babylon is just too big to fail.

Really, the only thing that’s left up to debate is the 10th nominee. There are three contenders for that spot: Glass Onion, Triangle of Sadness, and RRR. I just don’t see a big enough push from critics for RRR to happen, nor do I see much international appeal/acclaim for that film to happen. Triangle of Sadness has a lot of European support (as it won the Palme and the Euro Oscars). However, Glass Onion is my pick. It made a killing in its limited release. It’s going to be extremely popular when it hits Netlfix in a few days, and unlike the first Knives Out, it’s likely to get an acting nomination.

Director:

1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
2. Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Todd Field - Tár

Alt: Joseph Kosinski - Top Gun: Maverick

These seem like an easy five. Chazelle was supposed to be a contender but after he missed at the Globes (who were supposed to love the film) he’s not happening. McDonagh was snubbed in this category five years ago for Three Billboards. But, frankly, Banshees is a stronger contender than that film was. He has a lot of high brow support this time around, which he didn’t last time, which led to Paul Thomas Anderson getting nominated in Phantom Thread. Kosinski I think is getting a DGA nomination, but the director’s branch is known for their high brow taste and Cameron already has the action-adventure movie. Not to mention the directing duo of Daniels having an action movie as well.

Original Screenplay

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Tár
4. The Fabelmans
5. Triangle of Sadness

Babylon missed Screenplay at both the Globes and Critic’s Choice. While it’s probably getting a nomination at WGA, it’s dead in this category. There’s really only one other choice here and that’s Triangle of Sadness. It has the support to get it there.

I currently think Banshees is winning as, again, it’s a stronger movie than Three Billboards. EEAAO can still win as Get Out beat McDonagh last time. But I just don’t see it happen. Get Out won more screenplay awards with critics than EEAAO.

Adapted Screenplay

1. Women Talking
2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
3. Living
4. The Whale
5. Bones and All

The top 3 are locked. The Whale would miss in a stronger year but there isn’t a lot of choice in this category. Bones and All I think makes sense as a passion pick. It won two awards at Venice. I had Pinocchio in this category a little while ago but that’s also dead here. Another possibility is She Said, but no one actually cares about that movie and it’s not the type of thing that gets in as a sole Screenplay nominee. Those usually go to offbeat things like The Lobster.

Lead Actor

1. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Austin Butler - Elvis
3. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
4. Bill Nighy - Living
5. Tom Cruise - Top Gun: Maverick

The top 4 are locked. The fifth nominee here is a tough one. Again, not a lot of choice. Hugh Jackman is in a movie no one cares about. Babylon is probably not gonna be strong enough to get its lead into this category. Leaving us with Tom Cruise.

Lead Actress

1. Cate Blanchett - Tár
2. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Margot Robbie - Babylon
4. Danielle Deadwyler - Till
5. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans

I Wanna Dance With Somebody is dead. It has worse reviews than Bohemian Rhapsody, it’s not going to make as much money as BoRap, and Ackie did not get nominations at the Globes or Critic’s Choice.

Supporting Actor

1. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Brad Pitt - Babylon
4. Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans

Keoghan has been getting tons of acclaim so him getting in alongside Gleeson for Banshees seems like it’s happening. The only one here I’m not too sure about is Dano who missed out on a nomination at the Globes. I’m not sure who would replace him as of right now though and I think Fabelmans gets more than one acting nomination.

Supporting Actress

1. Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Janelle Monae - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
3. Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Jessie Buckley - Women Talking
5. Dolly De Leon - Triangle of Sadness

Outside of Condon, none of these are guaranteed. I think Monae is definitely getting in, especially if Glass Onion is a Picture nominee, but she did miss out on a Globe nomination. Women Talking is either only getting Buckley as an acting nomination or its getting no acting noms. I’m counting on De Leon getting that Euro push which gave Buckley a nomination last year for The Lost Daughter.

Cinematography

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Tár

These seem like an easy top 5. Maybe Empire of Light gets in because of Roger Deakins’s name. But no one cares about it.

Film Editing

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Elvis
5. The Banshees of Inisherin

Fabelmans is probably missing here, so is Babylon. Film Editing is usually reserved either for Top 5 movies or for extremely flashy editing. Fabelmans isn’t flashy and Babylon isn’t going to be strong enough. Top Gun: Maverick is an easy winner in this category alongside other bombastic winners like Ford vs Ferrari and The Bourne Ultimatum.

Sound

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Elvis
4. Babylon
5. Everything Everywhere All At Once

The top 4 seem like they’re happening. The fifth one is more up in the air. The sound branch usually likes nominating Best Picture nominees though and Fabelmans missed the shortlist which is why I have EEAAO in there. Top Gun is an easy winner here again. Plus, there’s a correlation between Film Editing and Sound.

Original Score

1. The Fabelmans
2. Babylon
3. The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Women Talking
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Avatar got snubbed at the Globes, which means it’s probably not happening. It’s also not that flashy of a score and contains kind of milquetoast action movie music. I currently have Fabelmans winning as John Williams is retiring after he finishes up Indiana Jones. However, I don’t think there’s a clear winner here right now.

Original Song

1. "Hold My Hand" from Top Gun: Maverick
2. “Ciao Papa” from Pinocchio
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
4. “Applause” from Tell It Like A Woman
5. “Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water

Naatu Naatu has a lot of passion. Applause is from Diane Warren who gets nominated for her boring documentary songs every year.

Production Design

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. Elvis
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Costume Design

1. Babylon
2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
3. Elvis
4. The Fabelmans
5. Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris

Make-up and Hairstyling

1. The Whale
2. Elvis
3. Babylon
4. The Batman
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

VFX

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
4. The Batman
5. Nope

I actually had EEAAO here but it missed the VFX shortlist.

Animated Feature

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes
3. Turning Red
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
5. Inu-Oh

Pinocchio is the front-runner here, Marcel has a lot of passion amongst hipster types and has been getting in everywhere. Disney’s only real contender in this category is Turning Red. Puss in Boots has been getting in everywhere. Inu-Oh got a Globe nomination but I don’t really know what else would get in there. Kind of a weak year for animated films.

International Film

1. Decision to Leave
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Close
4. Saint Omer
5. The Quiet Girl

Documentary

1. All The Beauty and the Bloodshed
2. Moonage Daydream
3. Fire of Love
4. All That Breathes
5. Descendant

Okay that’s all I got for you. I cut out some of the commentary because I feel like I went on too long in the beginning.

Switching gears from last week’s post.

After 2010, the Academy decided to switch from having a set 10 list of nominees to having a sliding scale. Meaning that each movie had to get at least a certain percentage of number one votes in order to secure a Best Picture nomination. This would lead to anywhere from 5 to 10 Best Picture nominees. But the math made it so that only 8 or 9 movies would get a Picture nomination. This was the rule until this past year (when CODA won). Why did they decide to switch to a sliding scale? No one knows for sure. Some speculate it was because indie darling The Winter’s Bone made it in over box office hit The Town. Others point to complaints from Academy member’s who couldn’t think of 10 movies to nominate.

Ever since then though, those of us into awards have wondered what would have made it in had the Oscar’s kept that set 10 line-up. Here’s what I think would have gotten in. I think some of these might be shocking to some of you.

2011:

Already in: The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, The Help, Moneyball, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, War Horse, and The Tree of Life

Next in line: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Other possibility: Bridesmaids

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo was nominated at the DGA, something usually reserved for movies in the top 5. It was also nominated at PGA, the combo of which usually results in a Best Picture nomination. It also ended up winning Film Editing, which are usually Picture nominees.

Bridesmaids is another possibility, having been nominated for Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress as well as getting nominated for PGA and SAG Ensemble.

2012:

Already in: Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, D’jango Unchained, Les Mis, Zero Dark Thirty, Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Next in line: Skyfall

With a nomination at PGA plus winning the BAFTA for Best British Film along with several tech nominations, considerable critical acclaim and a billion dollars, makes Skyfall an easy choice for Best Picture.

2013:

Already in: 12 Years A Slave, Gravity, American Hustle, The Wolf of Wall Street, Dallas Buyers Club, Nebraska, Captain Phillips, Her, Philomena

Next in line: Blue Jasmine

Woody Allen’s last Oscar success, getting nominations for Original Screenplay, Lead Actress, and Supporting Actress. There’s nothing else that would have made Picture, and this made PGA.

2014:

Already in: Birdman, Boyhood, The Imitation Game, The Grand Budapest Hotel, American Sniper, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash, Selma

Next in line: Foxcatcher and Interstellar

Other possibilities: Mr Turner, Nightcrawler, Gone Girl

With nominations in Director, Lead Actor, Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay, Foxcatcher is an easy 9th place. In fact it’s odd that it missed a Best Picture nomination to begin with.

The tricky part with this year is what came in 10th. Nightcrawler and Gone Girl had similar awards trajectories including getting nominations at PGA (although Gone Girl was helped by being a box office hit). They ultimately both missed crucial nominations. Nightcrawler missed Lead Actor for Jake Gyllenhaal (in favor of Bradley Cooper in American Sniper) and Gone Girl missed a nomination in Adapted Screenplay (in favor of Inherent Vice). Interstellar recieved many technical nomintations and was a big hit with audiences, which distinguishes itself from Mr. Turner which recieved the same amount of nominations.

2015:

Already in: Spotlight, The Revenant, The Big Short, Mad Mad: Fury Road, The Martian, Room, Brooklyn, Bridge of Spies

Next in Line: Carol and Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Other Possibilties: Straight Outta Compton, Ex Machina, Sicario, Inside Out, The Hateful Eight

This was another year where the 9th place was very clear (with several technical nomiations as well as nominations in Lead Actress, Supporting Actress, and Adapted Screenplay for Carol).

But 10th place was muddy. All of these movies have their own reasons for making Picture (Original Screenplay nominations for Straight Outta Compton, Ex Machina, and Inside Out and several tech nominations for Sicario and The Hateful Eight). But I think what would have made the cut was Star Wars. It got several tech nominations, including a nomination in Film Editing which is usually only reserved for Picture nominees. As well as incredible hype, box office prowess, and pretty good reviews. Star Wars would have distinguished itself while the other more typical prestige contenders would split the vote.

2016:

Already in: Moonlight, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hidden Figures, Lion, Fences, Hell or High Water

Next in line: Jackie

There wasn’t really an alternative here as PGA and WGA were busy nominating Deadpool. And movies like Nocturnal Animals and 20th Century Women severely underperformed.

Plus, Fox Searchlight was backing this film and they’re usually powerhouse campaigners.

2017:

Already in: The Shape of Water, Three Billboards, Get Out, Lady Bird, Dunkirk, Darkest Hour, The Post, Phantom Thread, Call Me By Your Name

Next in line: I, Tonya

Other possibilities: Baby Driver, Blade Runner 2049

I, Tonya got nominated for Lead and Supporting Actress and Film Editing. Baby Driver got nominated for the two sound categories and Film Editing (same nominations as Ford vs Ferrari) and Blade Runner got nominated in a lot of tech categories and won Cinematography, which are usually only Best Picture nominees.

However, I, Tonya had a lot going for it. Including the lack of genre bias (as opposed to Baby Driver and Blade Runner), and a Supporting Actress win for Allison Janney.

2018:

Already in: Green Book, Roma, The Favourite, Blackkklansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, A Star is Born, Vice, Black Panther

Next in line: If Beale Street Could Talk and Cold War

Other possibilities: First Man, Mary Poppins Returns

Beale Street is an easy 9th, having been nominated for Adapted Screenplay and Original Score, and having won Supporting Actress.

10th could go a couple of ways. Cold War was nominated for Director and Cinematography (as well as International). It had great critical reception, won an award at Cannes, and Amazon ended up prioritizing it after Beauitful Boy kind of flopped.

First Man bombed at the box office and severely underperformed with nominations. Missing things that were supposedly locks, including Cinematography, Film Editing, Adapted Screenplay, and Supporting Actress and even missing Original Score in which it was supposedly the front-runner (which is what led to Black Panther winning). Even then it got a few noms and maybe could have limped it’s way to the 10th spot.

Mary Poppins Returns ended up underperforming throughout the season. But unlike First Man, Mary Poppins Returns was a box office hit, and only missed one nomination (Lead Actress). There’s definitely an argument to be made that this was 10th, and I think it would come quite close to making it.

2019:

Already in: Parasite, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Irishman, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, Marriage Story, Little Women, Ford vs Ferrari

Next in line: Knives Out

Other possibility: The Two Popes.

Knives Out got nomianted at PGA and was nominated for Original Screenplay. It was also a box office hit at a time when the Oscar’s were moving towards nominating more of those.

The Two Popes was nominated for Lead Actor, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay. But, Netflix struggles with more than two movies at a time (as we’ve seen in recent years with them missing Picture with Tick Tick Boom and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). And Knives Out had more passion.

2020: Already in: Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Mank, Sound of Metal, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah

Next in line: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and News of the World

Other possibilities: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, One Night in Miami

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, while critically liked, had incredibly low audience scores. It ended up missing a crucial Adapted Screenaply nomination. One Night in Miami was really weak throughout the season and Amazon ended up switching all their resources to Sound of Metal. So I don’t think either of these films would make the Picture line-up at the end of the day.

Borat got nominated for Adapted Screenplay (over Ma Rainey) and Supporitng Actress. It was also nominated at PGA and won the Comedy Globe. Maria Bakalova was also the runner-up in Supporting Actress. Borat was a big hit, everyone was talking about it, and it hit the zeitgeist in a way that few streaming films do. It was such a strong reflection of the COVID era, I can’t imagine it misses Picture at the end of the day.

News of the World had a lot of below-the-line support. And while it didn’t have a lot of passion, it was better liked than Ma Rainey and One Night in Miami, at least by audiences. It scratched a crowd-pleasing oscar bait itch that not many films did during this time.

And that’s it.