I hate that I can't tell if this is going to make things better or catastrophically worse. Suppose it depends on who the replacement is. Willing to bet he still runs for re-election though.
I hate that I can't tell if this is going to make things better or catastrophically worse. Suppose it depends on who the replacement is.
Willing to bet he still runs for re-election though.
Could it be worse? I super maga would just get nothing done. McConnell has done incredible damage to the country with just his manipulation of the supreme court selection process.
Could it be worse? I super maga would just get nothing done. McConnell has done incredible damage to the country with just his manipulation of the supreme court selection process.
Getting nothing done will be quite harmful to Ukraine for instance. In fact, a lot of Republican policy is actually about simply not doing things, like funding government programs like the IRS, or...
Getting nothing done will be quite harmful to Ukraine for instance. In fact, a lot of Republican policy is actually about simply not doing things, like funding government programs like the IRS, or enforcing environmental protection laws, or defending the CFPB’s existence.
A super maga would only get nothing done as long as they're a distinct minority in the party and the margins between parties are thin. With a more solid number of representatives, there's no...
A super maga would only get nothing done as long as they're a distinct minority in the party and the margins between parties are thin. With a more solid number of representatives, there's no reason they couldn't do more.
What will happen to the Republican party after November? If Trump loses, who will assume power in the party? Will that effect the kinds of people that hold other positions of power in the party,...
What will happen to the Republican party after November? If Trump loses, who will assume power in the party? Will that effect the kinds of people that hold other positions of power in the party, or will the Republican party keep electing the same extreme candidates they have been for a while?
My assumption is that Trump will be their presumptive nominee until he dies. I don't think the traditional/old guard Republicans have enough conviction to split from the MAGA base because they...
My assumption is that Trump will be their presumptive nominee until he dies. I don't think the traditional/old guard Republicans have enough conviction to split from the MAGA base because they know that's only going to fracture their party further and they'll lose votes.
The MAGA crowd will not accept the reality of another loss. Anything that Trump does not get they assume he's been cheated out of. There's no reasoning with that kind of person.
But let's say that Trump gets imprisoned for any one of his ongoing criminal trials. Will he be able to effectively keep a base from a jail cell? Other Republicans would definitely see that as a...
But let's say that Trump gets imprisoned for any one of his ongoing criminal trials. Will he be able to effectively keep a base from a jail cell? Other Republicans would definitely see that as a sign of weakness and move to assume power.
Jailed opposition party leaders like Navalny or Mandela (not that Trump is like them in any way) could keep a base because they were political prisoners and others in their party are not free to conduct political activities. Trump, if jailed, would have to compete with Republicans that are not in jail.
As much as I highly doubt he'll see any prison time, for a hypothetical debate, I would wager that there would be some in party squabbling, more far right nominations at local and state level...
As much as I highly doubt he'll see any prison time, for a hypothetical debate, I would wager that there would be some in party squabbling, more far right nominations at local and state level elections, and no strong central figure at the top for the national party -- at least in the next presidential cycle.
You'd probably see Ted Cruz run for president again, and DeSantis and Haley. Probably another outsider candidate that Trump endorses from prison.
That said: Trump can (most likely) and still would run from prison.
I still don't think that the MAGA group would lose any control over the party. This is different from the days of the Tea Party, and the entrenched Republicans seem to have no way to influence their own party anymore. If anything, there would be a MAGA split away from the Republican party and they might even get more votes than whoever the RNC puts forth.
I think the best case would be that Trump's financial empire is undermined or destroyed by these fraud lawsuits, and that the threat of having his assets seized causes him to flee the US for some...
I think the best case would be that Trump's financial empire is undermined or destroyed by these fraud lawsuits, and that the threat of having his assets seized causes him to flee the US for some non-extradition country with some or all of that money.
I have no idea if that could/would happen, but it seems better in some ways than him going to jail.
I added this edit to my above comment before I saw you posted this, so I'll include it here I hope that there would be a split from MAGA if Trump loses in November. It sounds like a lot of the...
I added this edit to my above comment before I saw you posted this, so I'll include it here
Jailed opposition party leaders like Navalny or Mandela (not that Trump is like them in any way) could keep a base because they were political prisoners and others in their party are not free to conduct political activities. Trump, if jailed, would have to compete with Republicans that are not in jail.
I hope that there would be a split from MAGA if Trump loses in November. It sounds like a lot of the Republican voters at the primaries are tired of Trump's style and want a more balanced and statelier leader. If Trump and his MAGA ideology loses two elections in a row, politicians will have to try to evolve to remain in power.
As deluded as his primary base of voters is, I believe they would see him as a political prisoner. His entire public defense is that his trials are a hoax, a witch hunt driven by and initiated by...
As deluded as his primary base of voters is, I believe they would see him as a political prisoner. His entire public defense is that his trials are a hoax, a witch hunt driven by and initiated by Biden himself and the Democrats as a whole
I'd argue he's not winning by a landslide if he is the "incumbent president" for the Republican party. Trump got 59.8% of the vote in the South Carolina primary, 54.3% of the vote in the New...
I'd argue he's not winning by a landslide if he is the "incumbent president" for the Republican party. Trump got 59.8% of the vote in the South Carolina primary, 54.3% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary, and 68.1% of the vote in the Michigan primary.
He's definitely the front runner, but that doesn't look like overwhelming support in the Republican party.
Biden has been above 90% in each state where he was listed on the ballot except Michigan, and the missing ~10% of votes in Michigan were undecided votes that were cast in protest of his policy on Israel and Gaza.
If Republicans didn't want an alternative to Trump, he would be winning by 80% to 90% consistently.
Those are pretty sizable wins in an election. South Carolina is Nikki Haley's state, and Trump still got almost 60% of the vote against her in what was essentially a head to head race. That's...
Those are pretty sizable wins in an election. South Carolina is Nikki Haley's state, and Trump still got almost 60% of the vote against her in what was essentially a head to head race. That's pretty bad.
Edit: you also can't compare the dem primaries because incumbents don't get primaried by serious candidates.
Not sure what made me think of it, but what happens if one of them isn't able to take office by the time the election happens? They're both around 80, COVID is still around, etc, etc. Would...
Not sure what made me think of it, but what happens if one of them isn't able to take office by the time the election happens? They're both around 80, COVID is still around, etc, etc.
Would everything work the same and you're basically voting for their second? How far out do candidates need to be declared before they go on the ballot?
Short version is there's a lot of caveats and possible fights, but they would probably choose a candidate at the convention (how it used to be done). This would of course lead to a whole boatload...
Short version is there's a lot of caveats and possible fights, but they would probably choose a candidate at the convention (how it used to be done).
This would of course lead to a whole boatload of in fighting on who gets to actually be that candidate, if it should be the vp/vp pick, or someone else, or whatever.
A MAGA/GOP split would be healthy for everyone involved, even the apolitical and Democrat bystanders. MAGA for the MAGA crowd, Libertarian Party for the Chambers of Commerce, and GOP for the...
A MAGA/GOP split would be healthy for everyone involved, even the apolitical and Democrat bystanders. MAGA for the MAGA crowd, Libertarian Party for the Chambers of Commerce, and GOP for the religious weirdos.
Even before MAGA or the Tea Party, religious conservatives and business interests held an uneasy alliance.
Man, if he actually goes to prison, I hope they run a live feed 24/7. If they give him no air time, his base will consider him a silenced martyr. If they give him some then the narrative can be...
Man, if he actually goes to prison, I hope they run a live feed 24/7.
If they give him no air time, his base will consider him a silenced martyr. If they give him some then the narrative can be controlled and his base maintained. But if his followers are forced to watch him be a normal, imprisoned man? Not only do they watch him fall apart in real time, it's also gonna be even harder to ignore how inhumane the prison system is.
I doubt that'll happen, of course, but one can dream.
That seems unlikely unless he dies earlier than average. Presidential elections are traditionally referendums on the current president. Eventually there will be a recession and the Democrat...
That seems unlikely unless he dies earlier than average.
Presidential elections are traditionally referendums on the current president.
Eventually there will be a recession and the Democrat president will get voted out.
If the Republican voters keep nominating Trump, either he dies before a recession, or he gets voted in.
I'm not really sure how that's any different than what I said. Trump will turn 78 this year. He's not what I would call a healthy person, and it seems reasonable to figure he'll die before he's...
I'm not really sure how that's any different than what I said.
Trump will turn 78 this year. He's not what I would call a healthy person, and it seems reasonable to figure he'll die before he's 90. Two more elections after this one, if he does not win, seems probable.
Recessions typically happen every 6.5 years. 78 year old males typically live 9.43 more years. Chances are there is a recession, then an election, and Trump is still alive. And while Trump is not...
Recessions typically happen every 6.5 years. 78 year old males typically live 9.43 more years.
Chances are there is a recession, then an election, and Trump is still alive.
And while Trump is not exactly healthy, neither is the US economy.
Trump will still be the GOP standard bearer until he dies. Remember, the MAGA base believe the election was stolen, and almost nothing can convince them otherwise. Him losing or being in prison...
Trump will still be the GOP standard bearer until he dies. Remember, the MAGA base believe the election was stolen, and almost nothing can convince them otherwise. Him losing or being in prison would just be another “deep state conspiracy”.
After he dies? That’s a more interesting question. Trump hasn’t seemed to groom a strong successor. He’s probably afraid of one either betraying him (like Pence) or taking in too much of the limelight. I suspect Trump’s death would set of a massive fight within the GOP, with three contenders:
One of Trump’s kids; maybe Eric? None of them have a particularly strong charisma. Eric looks more like his father.
One of the MAGA fighters, someone who has always been loyal to Trump and never challenged him. Congressman Matt Gaetz or South Dakota governor Kristi Noem stand out.
One of the Tea Party Republicans, who bridges the pre- and post-Trump GOP. Senator Ted Cruz fits the bill here.
I don’t see the last group doing well. Now that folks have gotten a taste of Trump, they want it and only it (kinda like how many kids want a steady diet of pizza, chicken nuggets, and fries). The party is likely to remain MAGA for the foreseeable future. Most never-Trumper Republicans have left the party and become independents or conservative Dems. The funding stream for the GOP (especially at the state level) has degraded significantly, with many funds going directly to Trump. By 2026/2028, we’d likely start seeing the effects of this, with races being harder to win for a cash-strapped party.
This has knock-on effects as well. One or two third parties try to jump in and get a boost (I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Libertarians, even in their Mises phase, win at least one Congressional seat). The current coalition that makes up the Democrats may begin to fracture, with the socialists splitting off at some point in the next twenty years.
I largely agree with your outline's broad strokes. I haven't been tracking every development, but the MAGA politicians seem extremely determined to resist anything that isn't their way. The MAGA...
I largely agree with your outline's broad strokes. I haven't been tracking every development, but the MAGA politicians seem extremely determined to resist anything that isn't their way.
The MAGA base truly believes government is utterly fucked, and deserves to be shattered. If that means no budget, fine with them. If that means Ukraine falls, so what? Whatever the scenario, the base doesn't give a fuck. They want government chopped down and realigned according to their views. If that means a chainsaw, a huge car crash, a five-state fire, whatever. Gotta break some eggs to make omelettes and all that.
And a number of the MAGA politicians have drunk the same kool-aid. The House Speaker fight should be demonstration enough, and the Ukraine and Budget thing just further reinforces it. They (the office holders) mostly believe as the base believes. So, in their eyes, when they fold their arms and refuse to budget, refuse to compromise, refuse anything except absolute total victory according to their terms ... they're doing exactly what they should be doing.
It's destroying the country. Some of them even might know that, and a few others might suspect (even if they don't care); but regardless none of them actually mind in the slightest. They've "figured out" that they can wreck the United States so long as they refuse to budge.
Some of they see that as a good thing, since they assume they'll get to be the ones to rebuild it in their image. Some of them seem to just think the non-MAGA dipshits in their way will simply blink and let MAGA take over.
The system, government, democracy, assumes a certain level of good faith on the part of the people involved to function properly. The people themselves, as well as the office holders. No one really has (and I'm not sure anyone really could) designed a government system for the circumstance the MAGAs have pushed us into; where some participants genuinely do not care if it all erupts in flames and debris while they wait for their opponents to stop resisting.
It's happening on all levels, local through to national. The Republican Party in a number of localities has been completely overtaken by MAGAs. There's been a lot of organized MAGA effort to replace the "party apparatus" wherever they can. They've had key MAGA figures preaching that, podcasting and giving speeches and so on; urging MAGA rank and file to become precinct captains, local party chairs, and so on.
A lot of "good loyal old school Republicans" have been forced out of those same positions. Leaving the GOP basically MAGA now. They've redirected those localities towards MAGA candidates, and you're increasingly seeing MAGA city, county, and state office holders. None of them gives a fuck if it all ends in flame.
The Republicans have been acting like MAGA-lite since Gingrich in the 90s, but at least they still (eventually) would acknowledge when sometimes it was time to stop fighting a particular fight for a little while. Budget standoffs was a Gingrich-GOP tactic, but they would eventually agree to some sort of compromise.
MAGA doesn't. If they're going to, they've showed no real signs. They're effectively zealots, and they've taken over the GOP.
It's pushing the Democrats, who were already Center Right, further right, as some of the never-Trumpers "join" the Democrats. Which totally sucks, and is definitely pissing off a lot of actual Lefties who have been forced to align with the Democrats since that was the Left-most option. Not a Left option, just the Left-most.
So the knee-jerk (idiotic, I'd argue) reaction to all this might be to cheer MAGA for destroying the GOP, hoping it will in fact fracture the old-school GOP base into a separate part that splits the Right. Because some percentage of half is less than half, and that should mean the DNC wins out; that's the thinking.
But as GOP refuges push the Dems even further right, that's not the end of the story. After all, there are Lefties who are only under that umbrella because they're not being allowed any other choice.
If the MAGAs splinter the Right, that could be the opportunity for Progressives to splinter the Left. The same logic that assumes MAGA fracturing their party being good for the opposition works in reverse; if the Right is willingly splitting themselves, then what better time to split the true Lefties away from the Center-Right DNC?
Of course, that assumes there's a Progressive core prepared and willing to step in and form the Progressive Party. And, also of course, assumes the MAGAs don't start a civil war.
It also assumes the states don't decide to interfere, since a lot of them have various clauses and laws enshrined that basically hand control over elections and such to either the GOP or DNC. How would those situations factor one or two new parties coming onto the scene? How many might resist it?
For example, it's not at all unreasonable to assume MAGA states would flatly refuse to recognize not just a Progressive party, but they might even disenfranchise the existing DNC as well simply to ensure that state goes 100% under MAGA control. Even some supposedly civilized states, like California or New York, might try to play games and prevent any new parties from getting on the ballots.
Because it's all fun and games (depressing, but still a game of sorts) to plot out theory and strategy over what happens if we in fact are in the midst of a historic American Politics realignment/rearrangement. But at the end of all the games, there is a decidedly non-zero chance that losing (like on the budget, or at the polls if the party split neutralizes their power), or if Trump is (rightfully, justly) convicted and imprisoned, will push the MAGA base towards violence.
Not just some rioting, but outright insurrection. They tried it once. Trump is exactly the guy, when he's in the midst of one of his trials with jail time at the end of it, after even his dim-witted brain finally recognizes he's likely going down, Trump is the kind of guy who'd weaponize his platform even more overtly than he tried to with 6Jan. Simply as his hole card to save his own ass.
On 6Jan, he was being wishy-washy. He was hoping his peeps, the MAGA base, would sweep through and give him the excuse he needed to take over and assume dictatorship.
But he wasn't nearly smart or cunning enough to pull it off, especially since he wasn't really leaning into it hard, wasn't really pulling levers and trying to make it happen. Not really. Not in all the ways, to the full degree, you'd expect if someone was talking about the things he was talking to people about.
He was just going to kind saunter into that slot as the only option, take over after the opposition in the capitol had been sorted out by his base. Except it didn't work out that way so he just shrugged and had somehow managed to not put himself in a truly incriminating position (supposedly; and he wasn't entirely wrong, since he's still walking around free).
There's a chance, if he finally realizes he might actually be about to suffer a jail-term conviction in a few days as one of his trials nears the end, where he uses his platform to stop demanding donations and instead whips them to a frenzy. Goading the base into action to save him as their MAGA God.
That's very likely full on civil war, and who knows how that plays out.
And the MAGAs just don't care. Omelettes, eggs, whatever. After the blood gets real (like on 6Jan when the crowd pushing to penetrate that last barrier got real docile and quiet after Ashli Babbitt was shot), maybe they'll back off. Maybe. But if Trump and the other kool-aid guzzlers keep pushing them from the back, it's not a stretch to see how they'd obey and it won't just be legislative blood flowing.
Abbott is about the only high profile politician I can think who'd still have a shot, otherwise I suspect Trump's replacement would be a dark horse politician or businessman with considerably less...
Abbott is about the only high profile politician I can think who'd still have a shot, otherwise I suspect Trump's replacement would be a dark horse politician or businessman with considerably less national name recognition at the moment. DeSantis might try his luck again, but I'm not sure Trump's base would get behind someone who ran against him. Then again, we don't know who Trump's VP pick will be, so there's always that possibility.
Don't get me wrong, this is good news I've enjoyed reading. OTOH, he will likely be replaced by a younger and a fascist/MAGA fink. It seems that the non-fascist republicans aren't standing up to...
Don't get me wrong, this is good news I've enjoyed reading.
OTOH, he will likely be replaced by a younger and a fascist/MAGA fink.
It seems that the non-fascist republicans aren't standing up to the MAGAs, but instead retiring and getting out of their way.
I hate that I can't tell if this is going to make things better or catastrophically worse. Suppose it depends on who the replacement is.
Willing to bet he still runs for re-election though.
It's unlikely his successor will be as effective at the job as he was. They'll probably be more extreme in their views though.
I see the concern as them being highly effective at a very different job despite holding the same position.
Could it be worse? I super maga would just get nothing done. McConnell has done incredible damage to the country with just his manipulation of the supreme court selection process.
Getting nothing done will be quite harmful to Ukraine for instance. In fact, a lot of Republican policy is actually about simply not doing things, like funding government programs like the IRS, or enforcing environmental protection laws, or defending the CFPB’s existence.
A super maga would only get nothing done as long as they're a distinct minority in the party and the margins between parties are thin. With a more solid number of representatives, there's no reason they couldn't do more.
Not to mention that by virtue of being the republican leader certainly would signal even more support.
What will happen to the Republican party after November? If Trump loses, who will assume power in the party? Will that effect the kinds of people that hold other positions of power in the party, or will the Republican party keep electing the same extreme candidates they have been for a while?
My assumption is that Trump will be their presumptive nominee until he dies. I don't think the traditional/old guard Republicans have enough conviction to split from the MAGA base because they know that's only going to fracture their party further and they'll lose votes.
The MAGA crowd will not accept the reality of another loss. Anything that Trump does not get they assume he's been cheated out of. There's no reasoning with that kind of person.
But let's say that Trump gets imprisoned for any one of his ongoing criminal trials. Will he be able to effectively keep a base from a jail cell? Other Republicans would definitely see that as a sign of weakness and move to assume power.
Jailed opposition party leaders like Navalny or Mandela (not that Trump is like them in any way) could keep a base because they were political prisoners and others in their party are not free to conduct political activities. Trump, if jailed, would have to compete with Republicans that are not in jail.
As much as I highly doubt he'll see any prison time, for a hypothetical debate, I would wager that there would be some in party squabbling, more far right nominations at local and state level elections, and no strong central figure at the top for the national party -- at least in the next presidential cycle.
You'd probably see Ted Cruz run for president again, and DeSantis and Haley. Probably another outsider candidate that Trump endorses from prison.
That said: Trump can (most likely) and still would run from prison.
I still don't think that the MAGA group would lose any control over the party. This is different from the days of the Tea Party, and the entrenched Republicans seem to have no way to influence their own party anymore. If anything, there would be a MAGA split away from the Republican party and they might even get more votes than whoever the RNC puts forth.
I think the best case would be that Trump's financial empire is undermined or destroyed by these fraud lawsuits, and that the threat of having his assets seized causes him to flee the US for some non-extradition country with some or all of that money.
I have no idea if that could/would happen, but it seems better in some ways than him going to jail.
I added this edit to my above comment before I saw you posted this, so I'll include it here
I hope that there would be a split from MAGA if Trump loses in November. It sounds like a lot of the Republican voters at the primaries are tired of Trump's style and want a more balanced and statelier leader. If Trump and his MAGA ideology loses two elections in a row, politicians will have to try to evolve to remain in power.
As deluded as his primary base of voters is, I believe they would see him as a political prisoner. His entire public defense is that his trials are a hoax, a witch hunt driven by and initiated by Biden himself and the Democrats as a whole
Does it? He's winning by a landslide. Surely if this were true Nikki Haley would be anywhere close to his voting share?
I'd argue he's not winning by a landslide if he is the "incumbent president" for the Republican party. Trump got 59.8% of the vote in the South Carolina primary, 54.3% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary, and 68.1% of the vote in the Michigan primary.
He's definitely the front runner, but that doesn't look like overwhelming support in the Republican party.
Biden has been above 90% in each state where he was listed on the ballot except Michigan, and the missing ~10% of votes in Michigan were undecided votes that were cast in protest of his policy on Israel and Gaza.
If Republicans didn't want an alternative to Trump, he would be winning by 80% to 90% consistently.
Those are pretty sizable wins in an election. South Carolina is Nikki Haley's state, and Trump still got almost 60% of the vote against her in what was essentially a head to head race. That's pretty bad.
Edit: you also can't compare the dem primaries because incumbents don't get primaried by serious candidates.
Not sure what made me think of it, but what happens if one of them isn't able to take office by the time the election happens? They're both around 80, COVID is still around, etc, etc.
Would everything work the same and you're basically voting for their second? How far out do candidates need to be declared before they go on the ballot?
Short version is there's a lot of caveats and possible fights, but they would probably choose a candidate at the convention (how it used to be done).
This would of course lead to a whole boatload of in fighting on who gets to actually be that candidate, if it should be the vp/vp pick, or someone else, or whatever.
A lot, but not enough to force Trump out of the primaries. And even then, he’d just run independent.
A MAGA/GOP split would be healthy for everyone involved, even the apolitical and Democrat bystanders. MAGA for the MAGA crowd, Libertarian Party for the Chambers of Commerce, and GOP for the religious weirdos.
Even before MAGA or the Tea Party, religious conservatives and business interests held an uneasy alliance.
Man, if he actually goes to prison, I hope they run a live feed 24/7.
If they give him no air time, his base will consider him a silenced martyr. If they give him some then the narrative can be controlled and his base maintained. But if his followers are forced to watch him be a normal, imprisoned man? Not only do they watch him fall apart in real time, it's also gonna be even harder to ignore how inhumane the prison system is.
I doubt that'll happen, of course, but one can dream.
That seems unlikely unless he dies earlier than average.
Presidential elections are traditionally referendums on the current president.
Eventually there will be a recession and the Democrat president will get voted out.
If the Republican voters keep nominating Trump, either he dies before a recession, or he gets voted in.
I'm not really sure how that's any different than what I said.
Trump will turn 78 this year. He's not what I would call a healthy person, and it seems reasonable to figure he'll die before he's 90. Two more elections after this one, if he does not win, seems probable.
Recessions typically happen every 6.5 years. 78 year old males typically live 9.43 more years.
Chances are there is a recession, then an election, and Trump is still alive.
And while Trump is not exactly healthy, neither is the US economy.
So you're saying in that case, trump wouldn't run? Why not?
Trump will still be the GOP standard bearer until he dies. Remember, the MAGA base believe the election was stolen, and almost nothing can convince them otherwise. Him losing or being in prison would just be another “deep state conspiracy”.
After he dies? That’s a more interesting question. Trump hasn’t seemed to groom a strong successor. He’s probably afraid of one either betraying him (like Pence) or taking in too much of the limelight. I suspect Trump’s death would set of a massive fight within the GOP, with three contenders:
I don’t see the last group doing well. Now that folks have gotten a taste of Trump, they want it and only it (kinda like how many kids want a steady diet of pizza, chicken nuggets, and fries). The party is likely to remain MAGA for the foreseeable future. Most never-Trumper Republicans have left the party and become independents or conservative Dems. The funding stream for the GOP (especially at the state level) has degraded significantly, with many funds going directly to Trump. By 2026/2028, we’d likely start seeing the effects of this, with races being harder to win for a cash-strapped party.
This has knock-on effects as well. One or two third parties try to jump in and get a boost (I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Libertarians, even in their Mises phase, win at least one Congressional seat). The current coalition that makes up the Democrats may begin to fracture, with the socialists splitting off at some point in the next twenty years.
I largely agree with your outline's broad strokes. I haven't been tracking every development, but the MAGA politicians seem extremely determined to resist anything that isn't their way.
The MAGA base truly believes government is utterly fucked, and deserves to be shattered. If that means no budget, fine with them. If that means Ukraine falls, so what? Whatever the scenario, the base doesn't give a fuck. They want government chopped down and realigned according to their views. If that means a chainsaw, a huge car crash, a five-state fire, whatever. Gotta break some eggs to make omelettes and all that.
And a number of the MAGA politicians have drunk the same kool-aid. The House Speaker fight should be demonstration enough, and the Ukraine and Budget thing just further reinforces it. They (the office holders) mostly believe as the base believes. So, in their eyes, when they fold their arms and refuse to budget, refuse to compromise, refuse anything except absolute total victory according to their terms ... they're doing exactly what they should be doing.
It's destroying the country. Some of them even might know that, and a few others might suspect (even if they don't care); but regardless none of them actually mind in the slightest. They've "figured out" that they can wreck the United States so long as they refuse to budge.
Some of they see that as a good thing, since they assume they'll get to be the ones to rebuild it in their image. Some of them seem to just think the non-MAGA dipshits in their way will simply blink and let MAGA take over.
The system, government, democracy, assumes a certain level of good faith on the part of the people involved to function properly. The people themselves, as well as the office holders. No one really has (and I'm not sure anyone really could) designed a government system for the circumstance the MAGAs have pushed us into; where some participants genuinely do not care if it all erupts in flames and debris while they wait for their opponents to stop resisting.
It's happening on all levels, local through to national. The Republican Party in a number of localities has been completely overtaken by MAGAs. There's been a lot of organized MAGA effort to replace the "party apparatus" wherever they can. They've had key MAGA figures preaching that, podcasting and giving speeches and so on; urging MAGA rank and file to become precinct captains, local party chairs, and so on.
A lot of "good loyal old school Republicans" have been forced out of those same positions. Leaving the GOP basically MAGA now. They've redirected those localities towards MAGA candidates, and you're increasingly seeing MAGA city, county, and state office holders. None of them gives a fuck if it all ends in flame.
The Republicans have been acting like MAGA-lite since Gingrich in the 90s, but at least they still (eventually) would acknowledge when sometimes it was time to stop fighting a particular fight for a little while. Budget standoffs was a Gingrich-GOP tactic, but they would eventually agree to some sort of compromise.
MAGA doesn't. If they're going to, they've showed no real signs. They're effectively zealots, and they've taken over the GOP.
It's pushing the Democrats, who were already Center Right, further right, as some of the never-Trumpers "join" the Democrats. Which totally sucks, and is definitely pissing off a lot of actual Lefties who have been forced to align with the Democrats since that was the Left-most option. Not a Left option, just the Left-most.
So the knee-jerk (idiotic, I'd argue) reaction to all this might be to cheer MAGA for destroying the GOP, hoping it will in fact fracture the old-school GOP base into a separate part that splits the Right. Because some percentage of half is less than half, and that should mean the DNC wins out; that's the thinking.
But as GOP refuges push the Dems even further right, that's not the end of the story. After all, there are Lefties who are only under that umbrella because they're not being allowed any other choice.
If the MAGAs splinter the Right, that could be the opportunity for Progressives to splinter the Left. The same logic that assumes MAGA fracturing their party being good for the opposition works in reverse; if the Right is willingly splitting themselves, then what better time to split the true Lefties away from the Center-Right DNC?
Of course, that assumes there's a Progressive core prepared and willing to step in and form the Progressive Party. And, also of course, assumes the MAGAs don't start a civil war.
It also assumes the states don't decide to interfere, since a lot of them have various clauses and laws enshrined that basically hand control over elections and such to either the GOP or DNC. How would those situations factor one or two new parties coming onto the scene? How many might resist it?
For example, it's not at all unreasonable to assume MAGA states would flatly refuse to recognize not just a Progressive party, but they might even disenfranchise the existing DNC as well simply to ensure that state goes 100% under MAGA control. Even some supposedly civilized states, like California or New York, might try to play games and prevent any new parties from getting on the ballots.
Because it's all fun and games (depressing, but still a game of sorts) to plot out theory and strategy over what happens if we in fact are in the midst of a historic American Politics realignment/rearrangement. But at the end of all the games, there is a decidedly non-zero chance that losing (like on the budget, or at the polls if the party split neutralizes their power), or if Trump is (rightfully, justly) convicted and imprisoned, will push the MAGA base towards violence.
Not just some rioting, but outright insurrection. They tried it once. Trump is exactly the guy, when he's in the midst of one of his trials with jail time at the end of it, after even his dim-witted brain finally recognizes he's likely going down, Trump is the kind of guy who'd weaponize his platform even more overtly than he tried to with 6Jan. Simply as his hole card to save his own ass.
On 6Jan, he was being wishy-washy. He was hoping his peeps, the MAGA base, would sweep through and give him the excuse he needed to take over and assume dictatorship.
But he wasn't nearly smart or cunning enough to pull it off, especially since he wasn't really leaning into it hard, wasn't really pulling levers and trying to make it happen. Not really. Not in all the ways, to the full degree, you'd expect if someone was talking about the things he was talking to people about.
He was just going to kind saunter into that slot as the only option, take over after the opposition in the capitol had been sorted out by his base. Except it didn't work out that way so he just shrugged and had somehow managed to not put himself in a truly incriminating position (supposedly; and he wasn't entirely wrong, since he's still walking around free).
There's a chance, if he finally realizes he might actually be about to suffer a jail-term conviction in a few days as one of his trials nears the end, where he uses his platform to stop demanding donations and instead whips them to a frenzy. Goading the base into action to save him as their MAGA God.
That's very likely full on civil war, and who knows how that plays out.
And the MAGAs just don't care. Omelettes, eggs, whatever. After the blood gets real (like on 6Jan when the crowd pushing to penetrate that last barrier got real docile and quiet after Ashli Babbitt was shot), maybe they'll back off. Maybe. But if Trump and the other kool-aid guzzlers keep pushing them from the back, it's not a stretch to see how they'd obey and it won't just be legislative blood flowing.
Abbott is about the only high profile politician I can think who'd still have a shot, otherwise I suspect Trump's replacement would be a dark horse politician or businessman with considerably less national name recognition at the moment. DeSantis might try his luck again, but I'm not sure Trump's base would get behind someone who ran against him. Then again, we don't know who Trump's VP pick will be, so there's always that possibility.
I would kind of expect ivanka to try to claim the "cult leader" slot, if only for financial gain.
Don't get me wrong, this is good news I've enjoyed reading.
OTOH, he will likely be replaced by a younger and a fascist/MAGA fink.
It seems that the non-fascist republicans aren't standing up to the MAGAs, but instead retiring and getting out of their way.