So Trump won. Next few years are gonna be rough, I know. What happened, and where can the Dems go from here?

James Carville said it best: It’s the economy, stupid (even if he predicted the wrong candidate). Inflation was a big concern among voters, mostly driven by gas, groceries, and housing. Rightly or wrongly, many voters tied this to Biden, and through him to Harris. They viewed Trump as being likelier to fix things, with a big bold plan (tariffs, deportations, tax cuts). I suspect some (many?) voters wanted to punish Dems for inflation. Others probably thought Harris would worsen it. While she had a long proposal, she didn’t seem to talk about it much, nor boil it down to soundbites. Many of the demos that swung were hit hard by the price increases.

We saw swings among Latinos, young voters, and rural voters toward Trump. Some of this was due to depressed D turnout (Harris got 15 million fewer votes than Biden), but in other cases it was due to genuine swings. Starr County, TX went Republican for the first time in decades. New Jersey only went for Harris by single digit percentages. Black voters had a small 2% decline of the share of the electorate.

I think non-immigration identity politics played a smaller role. I do think Harris/Walz could’ve talked more about men’s issues specifically (suicide, the academic gap, poor job prospects), although they are hard to soundbiteify and not sound forced. They likely could've approached it from a universalist angle. Trans issues might’ve driven some voters to Trump, but I believe it was more localized (e.g., reduced margins in Loudoun County). Latinos likely weren’t particularly turned off of Trump because they aren’t a cohesive bloc, and in many cases not even the same race (you’ve got whites, indigenous, blacks, mixed, even Asian Latinos). Between the countries the cultures can be very different, to the point of each country hating the other. They can be more socially conservative as well, especially those in their 40s and older.

Immigration was definitely a bigger issue, dovetailing with economic issues (housing costs, “why are migrants getting help but not me”, homelessness). The migrant bussing by Gov. Abbott will be viewed as one of the greatest political maneuvers of the 21st century. It brought the issue to voters outside of border states. The number of people coming to the border was frustrating/scary for some voters.

Abortion didn’t play as big of a role, I suspect because many women don’t think they’ll need one, or because they don’t view care that legally may qualify as one.

The state of democracy didn’t motivate enough people for the Dems, in fact, some people who thought it was important voted for Trump.

Foreign policy didn’t play much of a role, although Israel/Palestine probably was significant in Michigan. But that needle would’ve been hard to thread for any candidate, and probably would’ve been less of a problem if other points were addressed.

I think the fact that Harris is a biracial woman did reduce votes, but I don’t think it was necessarily decisive in her losing. The right woman can definitely win (Thatcher won the U.K. in 1979, so it should be possible in the U.S. in 2024). I would probably hold off in 2028, but I don’t see an issue with running women long-term.

So, what are the takeaways for Dems?

1. Suburban white-collar voters are not the end-all be-all. They are a good bloc to have (reliable voters in many swing states, including in off-years), but they are not enough to outweigh the others.

2. You cannot take minority demographics for granted. They will not stay with you forever. They are not monolithic.

3. Social policy can only go so far. Its salience can be quite limited compared to the economy. Negatives can be very negative, white positives may be “meh”.

4. Running against someone, rather than for yourself only works so many times.

5. You can only have so many issues stacked against you and be able to win. If it was just the economy, it might’ve been closer, but you had the economy, and immigration, and social policy, and Israel/Palestine.

6. The average voter does not account for lag in terms of policy. Trump got credit for a good economy even though Obama did a lot of the work.

7. Places that are or have been “safe” are not guaranteed to stay like that forever, especially when paired with point 2, without work.

8. NatCon populism is here to stay. The combination of left-ish economics and social conservativism, propelled by apathetics and the hard right is a winning one, and needs to be countered accordingly.

9. Many folks view Democrats as being the “mom” or “Karen from HR” party. That is not the kind of reputation that wins elections.

10. It’s the economy, stupid.

Based on that, what would my strategy be for Dems in 2026/2028?

1. Clean house. The folks in charge lost 2024 and only barely won 2020. Care needs to be taken to ensure replacements have sufficient political/management experience.

2. Don’t be the party of why/if. Be the party of do. The former implies insecurity, the latter confidence.

3. Bring back the 50-state strategy. Open offices in rural areas. States viewed as safely blue came awfully close to flipping for Trump this year. But the reverse can also be true, especially with a good candidate (cf. Indiana in 2008 ). And even if the presidential candidate loses, downballot candidates can still win, especially in off-years. I think the Dems had a good ground game, and while it cannot make up for everything else, it’s usually better to have it than not. Local elections matter a lot because they have stronger day-to-day impact, and they are the breeding ground for future politicians. North Carolina had several good Dem victories.

4. Focus on economics. Moderate suburbanites aren’t enough to win on, and many people like Trumponomics. Go for smart tariffs, universal policies (e.g., Child Tax Credit, universal Medicare, etc), targeted tax cuts and increases along with tax code simplification, and one other oddball policy (withdrawal from the WTO? Annual gas tax holiday?) likely to be popular with voters.

5. Social moderation/tolerance. The party is a big tent one, and there’s going to be friction over social issues. This doesn’t mean abandoning core constituencies, but being smarter about rhetoric and candidates (you won’t win the Georgia governorship with an Everytown candidate). Candidates should be allowed to have differing views on social policy (especially if it is personal and doesn’t extend to the political realm), and there should be a mechanism to allow dissent on an issue an individual is out of touch on. Related: get the loudest social progressives away from the party. They frequently clash with it but manage to tie the party to an unpopular viewpoint with something they said on Xitter/Tik Tok. I did like the initial message of freedom the Harris campaign was putting out, but it didn’t seem to be used much.

6. Turnout still matters. You need to be able to turn out more people for you than the other guy.

7. (My weird, hot take-ish view) Go on an offensive cyber campaign. You’ve got Russian operatives shilling for Trump and the GOP. Hack them. Make it so they can’t just continuously pump out disinfo. Even a few million should be enough to establish a unit dedicated to fucking up Russian troll farms.

8. (Courtesy of @EgoEimi) Go for the reality TV angle. Lots of rallies, some political stunts, and bring loads of energy.

One final thought: Trump is a sui generis candidate. He energizes people who aren’t into politics normally. Thus far, the GOP hasn’t been able to translate that into off-year elections or non-Trump POTUS candidates. Nobody wants diet Trump, they want the real deal. When he passes away, it remains to be seen whether someone (Vance?) can take over with the same level of success.

A place to collect articles about what happened in all the other contests.

Edit: please post what the election results were (with a link to the article) at top level and then we can discuss them underneath it.

So this is reality. I warned myself not to take anything for granted with Trump, 2016 happened, but still I was starting to feel hopeful for a minute there. But nope, this is what America looks like now. For now.

This sucks for a lot of Americans, some are justifiably devastated. A lot is uncertain and we all have to figure out how to navigate this version of the country for, at least, the next 4 years. That's of course part of the insanity, that there are big questions about what happens when Trump's term is over. We kinda know there's going to be some level of a coup attempt, we just don't know if it will be successful.

But for the moment I want to put aside the myriad fucked up social, economic and geopolitical implications and explore what it means from a more ideology and identity sort of angle.

This means that we don't live in a just world. When my partner was crying last night, I think that's what she was feeling the loss of most of all. The idea that despite the imperfections of the world, somewhere underneath there is some form of justice based in the fundamentally good nature of human beings.

Intellectually it seems obvious that there is no inherent justice. But emotionally it's a different story. Speaking for Americans, it's not the story we're told growing up in the shining beacon of democracy. The concept of what America is, and who Americans are, that we translate to our childen is missing most of the nuance. And many of us keep that with us emotionally as adults, even if we know better.

The grown up version, the story we tell ourselves in American culture, has more nuance but not as much as you'd hope for. As an example, we've been pretending that giant corporations, conglomerates and the ultrawealthy can serve the public interest for an embarrassingly long time. We've made materialism into an art. A little light to medium evil in our foreign policy is just something we need to accept.

Of course the nuance isn't lost on everyone, a lot of us have a clear view of what America is, and western capitalist democracy writ large, but Trump is president, in part, because a lot of people do not. Full stop. We, as a culture, are telling the wrong stories about ourselves.

But Trump is president, in spite of his escalating rhetoric and Jan 6th and the nazis on parade and the election wasn't even close. So we have to come to terms with what that means about what America is, and who Americans are.

That's going to take time and processing and I'm not sure how that might or should look. I just want to add that this isn't new. This is the country we've been living in for some time. The only thing that's really changed is that we can't rationally tell any other story now.

It's heartbreaking but after we grieve I think we'll have an opportunity, collectively, to come to terms with what we are, good and bad. Which is of course a vital early step in the process of change.

One thing I'd like to add to the conversation, that's been said a lot and still not nearly enough, is that the enemies here are not just bigotry, or ignorance, or extremist religion or lack of security. Perhaps the biggest reason, directly and indirectly, for Trump's second term is unchecked capitalism.

I hope that, as a whole, we'll learn from this, and focus our energy on the right demons. The ones we maybe have to deal with before we can handle the others.

And also I want to say: this is sad and it feels bleak at the moment... and this grief is shared by millions. We're not alone in this. We'll get through it.

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Election Dashboards:

• Associated Press
• Bloomberg
• The Economist
• The New York Times
• Politico
• Reuters

I think some of you will react very poorly to this post; I understand that. I’d ask you to assume noble intent - I am not blasé about the implications of the election for transgender folks. Please know that I don’t blame you if you need to vent… or even catastrophize a bit. Trust me, I get it.

I get it because I am writing this, in large part, for myself. I had a pretty hard time this morning, and I’m very nervous about the implications of a second round of a Trump presidency. But the more calculating, rational part of me is saying this: ultimately, it’s mostly going to be okay.

I have spent much of my adult life living in the poorest countries in the world. Two of those countries were actively engaged in civil war when I was in them. It is hard to really convey how horrible the most desperate parts of the world can be. But more than anything, what I have taken from those experiences is hope.

For almost everybody - even people in those horrible places, going through horrible times - life goes on. People plan expensive (it’s all relative) weddings, get married, go shopping, gossip. They laugh and they cry. Mostly, life is normal.

A lot of things are about to get worse in America, and a few things will probably get better - accidentally, if nothing else. But mostly, day-to-day life is going to be okay. And so are you.

I currently reside in Pennsylvania. The election season has been vitriolic, hateful and stressful. Even in church they are angry. They are going to fizzle out they are so mad. Even the ones who are kind are interminably irritable. I may sometimes be a partisan, utilitarian to the core, but I do not talk about politics in God's house. I will speak on justice and righteousness, but not in such terms as are popular. I would rather take that one moment in the week to see my neighbors for who they are and not the tribe they belong to. Somehow that is gone. Service on Sunday was not pleasant. You could feel the tension even as people sat listening. Even the children could feel it.

There is an election sign, or several, on every block. Every building zoned for electric screens has rotating ads (for both candidates) on it. It's all that is spoken about. One cannot escape it. It swallows you whole, spits you out again having transformed you for the worse. Have you voted? Did you hear what he said? Oh, keep quiet, that couple at the next table looks like they voted for the wrong one. Did you hear the vice president is coming to town? Horrible traffic, oh just so terrible. All the out-of-towners, coming in, you know who they support. Despicable. Do you have an election day plan? I voted early this year. That's nice. There was a sign in the next yard over. I just wanted to run it over with my car. Don't look at that man, sweetie, he is wearing boots only the wrong people would wear. The neighborhood watch got a report today. Vandalism, keys. Looking to do some election volunteering. Ballots are on fire. Did you hear? Have to go into that neighborhood, and make sure they don't vote for the wrong person. It would be so bad for them. Oh, they don't understand. Honey, bring your pepper spray, you're not safe there. You'll be shot, knifed. It's the crime, you know who they voted for. Do you know where your polling place is? I voted by mail this year. Did you hear what she said? Well, she didn't say it, but he said she said it. Let's get out of here, sweetheart, you know they voted for the wrong one, just look at the cars they drive, they don't care. Real Americans vote for the right one. All these people voting for the wrong one, so poor, so uneducated. I hate the rich. Let's get out of this bar. Go home. Back where it's safe. We can watch partisan election predictions and not be disturbed.

Nothing else has made me want to leave this state more than its unyielding power in the election. It is not democratic for six or seven states to effectively determine the winner of an election. And it is not a good experience as a resident to be given that much attention. It turns you against each other. It turns your civic and neighborly lifestyle into a caricature. It is worse that it is so all-or-nothing. The stakes are so high. Our 19 electoral votes are worth more than gold, because they only come in a package.

The Lord says

And thou shalt love the Lord thy God with all thy heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy mind, and with all thy strength: this is the first commandment.

And the second is like, namely this, Thou shalt love thy neighbour as thyself. There is none other commandment greater than these.

It is bad for many reasons. But it is only this bad because of the way our electoral system is set up pits us against each other. It does not have to be this way.

Here are my suggestions. If you are a Senator, please tell your colleagues that scroll_lock has issued a decree and make it happen. Perfection is the domain of nerds, I am simply concerned about minimizing the dominance of the two-party system and improving basic human decency.

• State Constitutional amendments mandating some variety of ranked-choice voting. I'm sure there is some mathematically optimal method. I don't care a whole lot which, as long as it is not first-past-the-post. I am less interested in the most "virtuous" system and rather the most useful one in effectively increasing the number of political parties present in an elected body.
• Federal Constitutional amendment forbidding the first-past-the-post method in elections for any federal or state office. (The states can decide how to implement the alternative. I'm not convinced there is any single best option.)
• Adoption of the National Interstate Popular Vote Compact.
  • When it is inevitably ruled unconstitutional: a national Constitutional amendment requiring the allocation of electoral votes in a given state proportionally to the votes of the electorate, rather than a "winner-take-all" system.
  • OR, maybe this is better done at the state level. Not important to me. The legal nerds can battle out the specifics.
• Federal Constitutional amendment not only forbidding faithless electors but invalidating the votes of any faithless elector. In other words, that "real" vote for the president in December should become a formality only.
  • May as well get rid of this silly meeting while we're at it.
• Federal Constitutional amendment separating the office of president into two equal offices within the executive branch, to be elected in a staggered configuration following the same system of presidential terms we currently have, just offset:
  • President 1: head of state
  • President 2: head of government
• Federal Constitutional amendment forbidding so-called "independent expenditure-only committees" from collecting annually more than an amount to be designated by Congress for political purposes, from any particular entity.
• Federal law forbidding the spending of campaign funds on public political advertising more than 3 months ahead of the election.
• Federal law forbidding the spending of PAC or equivalent funds on political advertising in support of a particular candidate more than 1 month ahead of the election.

And there we go. Not going to solve every problem, but that is the worst part done with.

Godforsaken land. I am buying extra food tomorrow. Let's hope it is over and done with by the end of the week.

Maybe this topic is silly, but I am up from insomnia, so here it goes.

I watched a piece on the news about how the election may come down to teeny tiny little town in Nebraska. I remember a similar situation coming to pass in the 2020 election.

There are many teleworkers now. Many of them are IT people who would be happy anywhere there is a good Internet connection.

I was thinking that a movement to get people to move to where their votes would count the most would be interesting. At least to talk about.

There could be a web site/app that would identify the potential most crucial areas, like that little Nebraska town.

Nomadic and patriotic teleworkers could then move to such places a year in advance of an election, vote, and move on if they aren't happy in those places.

So I'm kind of terrified by recent political news. What can I do to help?

Options include:

• Donating
• Phone banking
• Text banking
• Postcarding
• Door knocking
• Volunteering as an election worker

Does anyone have an informed opinion about which of these will actually move the needle and which ones just make you feel like you're doing something?