I've been keeping a finger on the pulse of analytics & contract valuation in the NFL for the last few years (as a fan, not related to my profession). Anyone else who has been of fan of this is probably aware that we hit a pretty serious breaking point yesterday, as a handful of top-end RBs failed to reach deals with their respective teams resulting in them being franchise tagged. I was wondering what others thought about this whole fiasco.

My thoughts:

In one sense, this is simply effective roster management: RBs add little win probability by themselves (i.e., their production is largely a result of the offensive line and passing game), their age curve is poor (i.e., they're typically out of highly productive years by the end of their rookie deals), and they're easily replaced by rookie talent.

On the other hand, these guys take a beating to produce a product we all love. They spend some of their best years in the college system, where they do seem to add a lot of win probability, being totally uncompensated. They get to the NFL only to have their potential earnings suppressed by the rookie wage scale, then get franchise tagged guaranteeing they'll be SOL with respect to a deal with big fully-guaranteed cash.

What's the solution here? Assuming the draft is an efficient(-ish) market, adjusting the rookie pay scale for them will just cause teams to adjust their drafting behavior. Letting RBs arrive to the NFL sooner than everyone is something that the NCAA almost certainly won't allow without a vicious fight. Is there any hope for these guys?

edit: typos

I've been tasked with naming the Tildes Fantasy Football League. I am notoriously bad at naming things.

My only idea is "League of A-holes" because the first vlog post introducing Tildes, Deimos mentioned

Tildes will not be a victim of the paradox of tolerance; my philosophy is closer to "if your website's full of assholes, it's your fault".

But I don't really like it.

I'm not a follower of the NFL, but I do love NCAA football. When I was a freshman in high school, two of the seniors on the team would come around and pep talk us before games and practice with us and such. As an underclassman, this grew into some degree of "idolizing" those guys. The following year, they both were accepted to Clemson, one of them with a football scholarship, the other playing as a walk on. For me, it was super cool to see those guys who were cool with me now on TV, playing for Dabo Swinney, and my fandom for the Clemson Tigers was born. Both graduated and moved on to real life, neither went on the play for the NFL or anything, but I never had a stronger reason to shift my loyalty to any other team afterwards, so they've remained my favorite NCAA football team ever since.

Who's your team, and what's your story?

I'm in the middle of the Seattle vs DC game. It's great to see a more polished XFL back.

For the unaware, the XFL has modified traditional NFL rules to prioritize a faster, leaner game. A 25s play clock (down from 45s with the NFL), a modified kick off where teams are five yards apart, with the kicker and receiver on their respective 35 yard line (teams wait until the receiver touches the ball before they can move.)

All in all, this game is pretty fun. The pace isn't crazy fast compared to the NFL, but you definitely have fewer long breaks.

The broadcast is also great. They're constantly detailing the differences in play. They also have more interaction with coaches and players, which is fun.

Here's a full set of rule changes