Comment box Scope: article reaction Tone: neutral Opinion: yes Sarcasm/humor: none If it takes more international competition to get EV prices down in Western countries, so be it. Local markets...
Comment box
Scope: article reaction
Tone: neutral
Opinion: yes
Sarcasm/humor: none
If it takes more international competition to get EV prices down in Western countries, so be it. Local markets are great and all, but existing manufacturers are making very little effort to electrify at an affordable price to customers.
I'm not familiar with European markets but there is nothing even close to a BEV that sells for £15,000 ($19,000 USD) in the United States. The cheapest I know of is the Nissan Leaf at around $30,000. In Europe, my impression is that the only cars you can buy for <€20,000 are very tiny city cars. But Renault's Dacia Spring looks like a full-sized SUV. If the only reason they are launching that at this cost is because of competition from China... then I welcome more competition.
Geopolitics yes yes. I would rather prevent the planet from becoming unlivable. Once BEVs are consistently at price parity with ICEs in a particular market, it becomes technically and politically suitable to ban the production of new ICEs altogether.
One thing that is really going against small EVs in the US is the speeds on US highways. EVs are more efficient than ICE cars, but that is a disadvantage on the highway. ICE cars are so...
One thing that is really going against small EVs in the US is the speeds on US highways.
EVs are more efficient than ICE cars, but that is a disadvantage on the highway. ICE cars are so inefficient that the extra drag at high speeds does not impact the distance one can travel as much as much as they do with EVs.
I had a 2018 Nissan Leaf with the 40kWh battery which should have given me a ~145 mile range on a full charge. My commute is only 35 miles total a day, so this should have worked just fine, but on the highway, which many Americans use to commute, I got nowhere near 145 miles of range. I got about 80 miles of range traveling highway speeds. I even adjusted my driving habits to only go the speed limit and use other hypermiling techniques to improve efficiency. Using about 50% of your battery for your commute sounds fine because you can just plug in at night, but it all fell apart when I wanted to run errands on the weekend. It's not difficult to drive more than 60 miles in a day.
For small EVs to be feasible in the US for more people, batteries have to get much more energy dense, cities have to get more compact, or speed limits need to be reduced. Having to think about efficiency and travel distances is just exhausting. I would love a small EV to work for me, but the tech is not ready for American cities.
Comment box Scope: discussion/expansion, calculations Tone: neutral Opinion: not really Sarcasm/humor: none The median BEV range in 2024 for a new vehicle is apparently 270 miles on paper (double...
Comment box
Scope: discussion/expansion, calculations
Tone: neutral
Opinion: not really
Sarcasm/humor: none
The median BEV range in 2024 for a new vehicle is apparently 270 miles on paper (double the 2018 Leaf's range), so that particular use-case is more feasible today than it was six years ago in 2018.
The longest distance I can consider an "errand" where I wouldn't expect to refuel would be driving to an exotic furniture store for a meatball luncheon, a one-way distance of, say, 64.1 miles. If we assume a "real-world" mileage efficiency of 55%, the median EV today would still have a range of 148.5 miles, enough for a trip and back without even charging in the middle (though that would be a good idea).
The mental fatigue of keeping track of the mileage/efficiency on anything other than very long road trips is definitely an unreasonable expectation. But on a local and regional scale, I would be very surprised if that continues to be anything resembling an issue within 3–5 years.
The International Energy Agency forecasts an automotive lithium-ion battery energy density of ~2000 GWh/y by 2027 (compared to ~1000 GWh/y today). By 2030, they forecast ~3000 GWh/y. If we pretend that this maps directly onto median EV ranges:
2024 (base): 1000 GWh/y battery = 270 mi range
2027 (x2.00): 2000 GWh/y battery = 540 mi range
2030 (x1.50): 3000 GWh/y battery = 810 mi range
Those numbers seem a little high to me, but that is what the IEA predicts. Their forecasts for the last five years have all turned out to be conservative, so it wouldn't be an entirely unfair assumption to take them at face value or even to suppose that the rate of improvement will continue to outperform.
If we then assume a "real-world" efficiency of 55% on these manufacturer-stated median ranges, that would put median "practical" range at 300 miles in 2027 and 450 miles in 2030. This is at parity with most ICEs.
Well the issue isn’t that it’s not possible to get a small EV that has enough range for all non-roadtrip uses. The issue is the affordability of those models. Cheap small EVs with adequate range...
Well the issue isn’t that it’s not possible to get a small EV that has enough range for all non-roadtrip uses. The issue is the affordability of those models.
Cheap small EVs with adequate range are what is missing from the US market. Something that can be bought for <$30,000 new and low $20,000 range used. I know those will come, but they just aren’t in the US yet.
There are several EVs in the US under 30k: the Chev Bolt, the Bolt EUV, Mini EV and the base model Nissan Leaf. But they're not selling that well. The Nissan LEAF is the most well known, and has...
There are several EVs in the US under 30k: the Chev Bolt, the Bolt EUV, Mini EV and the base model Nissan Leaf. But they're not selling that well.
The Nissan LEAF is the most well known, and has been around the longest but only the S model is under 30k. Nissan only sold 6,083 Leaf all told in 2023.
The Bolt was doing better with about 23,000 units sold in 2023 and then GM discontinued it. Listings show tons of 2023 on the lots and they are marked down about 7k and as low as 21,300 and still not selling. Not good.
The MINI EV is doing the best of the cheaper EVs. Base price is just around 30.9k and they sold 45,000 in 2023, which is about 0.3% of all US car sales in 2023. (Illogically the same car is 57,000 in Canada!) Cant find one under 35k in the US now.
In comparison, Ford sold over 750,000 F150s last year, at 48k to 74k. I dont think price is keeping people from buying cheaper EVs.
That's the Leaf for you. It's just not a very well designed car. I had one for about four months but the terrible aero annoyed me too much. As soon as you got over about 50mph the range went off a...
That's the Leaf for you. It's just not a very well designed car. I had one for about four months but the terrible aero annoyed me too much. As soon as you got over about 50mph the range went off a cliff.
I currently have a 2018 Hyundai Ioniq and when it says 150 miles it pretty much means it. But the drag coefficient is only 0.24, which is bonkers - it only really starts to suffer when you're going over the speed limit (70mph in the UK). I have a 28kWh battery with over 50k miles on it and can still quite easily get 130-150 miles of range depending on the weather.
Design for aero and a lot of the high speed problems of EVs go away. Also your cars look nice, not like the big stupid bricks a lot of modern vehicles are.
Plus, due to the price difference it's not like BYD is taking customers away from the western electric car makers. The ionic 6 is effectively 60k in my country. Yeah good luck with that.
Plus, due to the price difference it's not like BYD is taking customers away from the western electric car makers. The ionic 6 is effectively 60k in my country. Yeah good luck with that.
BYD started as a battery company first, then branched into EVs later. Considering that batteries are the biggest cost of an EV, BYD has a fundamental advantage of being vertically integrated. I'm...
BYD started as a battery company first, then branched into EVs later. Considering that batteries are the biggest cost of an EV, BYD has a fundamental advantage of being vertically integrated. I'm not aware of any EU car maker which can boast that.
Worth noting, however, that the EU is currently investigating Chinese EV makers for uncompetitive practices thanks to government subsidies. It is still ongoing as far as I know, but I can imagine some very harsh import taxes being applied if they find fault.
Also, while Chinese EVs absolutely have a price advantage, I'm hesitant about the long-term reliability of them when it comes to buying parts. I have faith that the European marques will still be around and producing parts for 5-10 year old cars. Maybe China's brands will too, but that question mark is powerful.
Recently drove a Chinese made vehicle that was only a few years old (rental in another country) and it was the biggest pile of garbage imaginable. It was fairly new and had low mileage, but the...
Recently drove a Chinese made vehicle that was only a few years old (rental in another country) and it was the biggest pile of garbage imaginable. It was fairly new and had low mileage, but the doors were super thin and got damaged by a gust of wind while I had it, the back door latch jammed multiple times, the stereo was buggy, the brakes pulled, it didn't want to start a few times, one of the seatbelts refused to retract... felt like a rolling deathtrap.
Maybe some Chinese car companies are better, but this one was made by SAIC which is the biggest car manufacturer in China.
AFAIK there's a difference between Chinese made for China cars and Chinese made for EU/US cars. Their local production just needs to look fancy, they're the MacMansions of cars. But for overseas...
AFAIK there's a difference between Chinese made for China cars and Chinese made for EU/US cars.
Their local production just needs to look fancy, they're the MacMansions of cars. But for overseas customers, they need to actually compete with western cars on things other than price.
I think the really ironic thing is that the EU has excoriated developing countries for imposing tarrifs on the EU and now that the roles are reversed they have abandoned their principles and are...
I think the really ironic thing is that the EU has excoriated developing countries for imposing tarrifs on the EU and now that the roles are reversed they have abandoned their principles and are advocating doing this themselves.
I wouldn't say cheap american or European vehicles have great reputations for long term reliability either. That has more to do with price than the race of the company's owner.
I wouldn't say cheap american or European vehicles have great reputations for long term reliability either. That has more to do with price than the race of the company's owner.
Comment box
If it takes more international competition to get EV prices down in Western countries, so be it. Local markets are great and all, but existing manufacturers are making very little effort to electrify at an affordable price to customers.
I'm not familiar with European markets but there is nothing even close to a BEV that sells for £15,000 ($19,000 USD) in the United States. The cheapest I know of is the Nissan Leaf at around $30,000. In Europe, my impression is that the only cars you can buy for <€20,000 are very tiny city cars. But Renault's Dacia Spring looks like a full-sized SUV. If the only reason they are launching that at this cost is because of competition from China... then I welcome more competition.
Geopolitics yes yes. I would rather prevent the planet from becoming unlivable. Once BEVs are consistently at price parity with ICEs in a particular market, it becomes technically and politically suitable to ban the production of new ICEs altogether.
One thing that is really going against small EVs in the US is the speeds on US highways.
EVs are more efficient than ICE cars, but that is a disadvantage on the highway. ICE cars are so inefficient that the extra drag at high speeds does not impact the distance one can travel as much as much as they do with EVs.
I had a 2018 Nissan Leaf with the 40kWh battery which should have given me a ~145 mile range on a full charge. My commute is only 35 miles total a day, so this should have worked just fine, but on the highway, which many Americans use to commute, I got nowhere near 145 miles of range. I got about 80 miles of range traveling highway speeds. I even adjusted my driving habits to only go the speed limit and use other hypermiling techniques to improve efficiency. Using about 50% of your battery for your commute sounds fine because you can just plug in at night, but it all fell apart when I wanted to run errands on the weekend. It's not difficult to drive more than 60 miles in a day.
For small EVs to be feasible in the US for more people, batteries have to get much more energy dense, cities have to get more compact, or speed limits need to be reduced. Having to think about efficiency and travel distances is just exhausting. I would love a small EV to work for me, but the tech is not ready for American cities.
Comment box
The median BEV range in 2024 for a new vehicle is apparently 270 miles on paper (double the 2018 Leaf's range), so that particular use-case is more feasible today than it was six years ago in 2018.
The longest distance I can consider an "errand" where I wouldn't expect to refuel would be driving to an exotic furniture store for a meatball luncheon, a one-way distance of, say, 64.1 miles. If we assume a "real-world" mileage efficiency of 55%, the median EV today would still have a range of 148.5 miles, enough for a trip and back without even charging in the middle (though that would be a good idea).
The mental fatigue of keeping track of the mileage/efficiency on anything other than very long road trips is definitely an unreasonable expectation. But on a local and regional scale, I would be very surprised if that continues to be anything resembling an issue within 3–5 years.
The International Energy Agency forecasts an automotive lithium-ion battery energy density of ~2000 GWh/y by 2027 (compared to ~1000 GWh/y today). By 2030, they forecast ~3000 GWh/y. If we pretend that this maps directly onto median EV ranges:
Those numbers seem a little high to me, but that is what the IEA predicts. Their forecasts for the last five years have all turned out to be conservative, so it wouldn't be an entirely unfair assumption to take them at face value or even to suppose that the rate of improvement will continue to outperform.
If we then assume a "real-world" efficiency of 55% on these manufacturer-stated median ranges, that would put median "practical" range at 300 miles in 2027 and 450 miles in 2030. This is at parity with most ICEs.
Well the issue isn’t that it’s not possible to get a small EV that has enough range for all non-roadtrip uses. The issue is the affordability of those models.
Cheap small EVs with adequate range are what is missing from the US market. Something that can be bought for <$30,000 new and low $20,000 range used. I know those will come, but they just aren’t in the US yet.
There are several EVs in the US under 30k: the Chev Bolt, the Bolt EUV, Mini EV and the base model Nissan Leaf. But they're not selling that well.
The Nissan LEAF is the most well known, and has been around the longest but only the S model is under 30k. Nissan only sold 6,083 Leaf all told in 2023.
The Bolt was doing better with about 23,000 units sold in 2023 and then GM discontinued it. Listings show tons of 2023 on the lots and they are marked down about 7k and as low as 21,300 and still not selling. Not good.
The MINI EV is doing the best of the cheaper EVs. Base price is just around 30.9k and they sold 45,000 in 2023, which is about 0.3% of all US car sales in 2023. (Illogically the same car is 57,000 in Canada!)Cant find one under 35k in the US now.In comparison, Ford sold over 750,000 F150s last year, at 48k to 74k. I dont think price is keeping people from buying cheaper EVs.
That's the Leaf for you. It's just not a very well designed car. I had one for about four months but the terrible aero annoyed me too much. As soon as you got over about 50mph the range went off a cliff.
I currently have a 2018 Hyundai Ioniq and when it says 150 miles it pretty much means it. But the drag coefficient is only 0.24, which is bonkers - it only really starts to suffer when you're going over the speed limit (70mph in the UK). I have a 28kWh battery with over 50k miles on it and can still quite easily get 130-150 miles of range depending on the weather.
Design for aero and a lot of the high speed problems of EVs go away. Also your cars look nice, not like the big stupid bricks a lot of modern vehicles are.
Is the comment box in relation to your own comment or the article?
Comment box
It is in relation to my own comment.
I asked about it on this thread
Plus, due to the price difference it's not like BYD is taking customers away from the western electric car makers. The ionic 6 is effectively 60k in my country. Yeah good luck with that.
BYD started as a battery company first, then branched into EVs later. Considering that batteries are the biggest cost of an EV, BYD has a fundamental advantage of being vertically integrated. I'm not aware of any EU car maker which can boast that.
Worth noting, however, that the EU is currently investigating Chinese EV makers for uncompetitive practices thanks to government subsidies. It is still ongoing as far as I know, but I can imagine some very harsh import taxes being applied if they find fault.
Also, while Chinese EVs absolutely have a price advantage, I'm hesitant about the long-term reliability of them when it comes to buying parts. I have faith that the European marques will still be around and producing parts for 5-10 year old cars. Maybe China's brands will too, but that question mark is powerful.
Recently drove a Chinese made vehicle that was only a few years old (rental in another country) and it was the biggest pile of garbage imaginable. It was fairly new and had low mileage, but the doors were super thin and got damaged by a gust of wind while I had it, the back door latch jammed multiple times, the stereo was buggy, the brakes pulled, it didn't want to start a few times, one of the seatbelts refused to retract... felt like a rolling deathtrap.
Maybe some Chinese car companies are better, but this one was made by SAIC which is the biggest car manufacturer in China.
AFAIK there's a difference between Chinese made for China cars and Chinese made for EU/US cars.
Their local production just needs to look fancy, they're the MacMansions of cars. But for overseas customers, they need to actually compete with western cars on things other than price.
The thing is, I wasn't in China -- it was one of their export vehicles.
SAIC is also a state-owned company. Imagine how bad the cars are that are made by the companies that have to make a profit.
I think the really ironic thing is that the EU has excoriated developing countries for imposing tarrifs on the EU and now that the roles are reversed they have abandoned their principles and are advocating doing this themselves.
I wouldn't say cheap american or European vehicles have great reputations for long term reliability either. That has more to do with price than the race of the company's owner.
Mirror, for those hit by the paywall:
https://archive.is/3NSAW