I own gold, not the actual bullions, but stocks in a physical gold trust. This is the one stock I don't want to see go to 10k because that would indicate a deep seated problem with the global...
I own gold, not the actual bullions, but stocks in a physical gold trust. This is the one stock I don't want to see go to 10k because that would indicate a deep seated problem with the global financial market, if not crashed by that point already.
The rising gold and silver prices are unironically a recession indicator.
I read a theory that gold is skyrocketing because countries are trying to get more gold as the stupid actions of the US is causing confidence in the dollar to be lost. Almost like an alternative...
I read a theory that gold is skyrocketing because countries are trying to get more gold as the stupid actions of the US is causing confidence in the dollar to be lost. Almost like an alternative to a US-backed reserve.
I've never bought gold in my life but my god, I don't think it would be a bad idea now.
That is true. Nations are buying record amounts of gold to restock their gold reserve but it's especially compounded by retail buyers buying gold to an insane degree too. When individual buyers...
That is true. Nations are buying record amounts of gold to restock their gold reserve but it's especially compounded by retail buyers buying gold to an insane degree too. When individual buyers start stockpiling gold you need to worry.
Regarding your last statement... I couldn't tell you. I'd warn against it as a vehicle for profit, it has seen such an insane rally month over month over month that you have to wonder when the bottom falls out.
As a hedge against the devaluation of the global reserve currency? Maybe? But we'll have bigger problems if it comes to that. I wasn't joking when I said this is the one stock I don't want to see going to 10k.
Ultimately, it's up to you. You're late to the party and it's also likely that we see the dollar stabilize and gold starts cratering again. We may also see the dollar continue to crater and gold becomes a safe place for money. Who knows?
This is most definitely not financial advise, I've proven time and time again that I'm far too stupid to trade effectively.
Don’t try to time markets as individuals. What you just said? Everyone knows that. It’s priced in, already. Most serious players in a market know way more. Gold is nearly zero-sum as a market.
Don’t try to time markets as individuals. What you just said? Everyone knows that. It’s priced in, already. Most serious players in a market know way more. Gold is nearly zero-sum as a market.
I put some money into a physical gold trust myself starting on December 1st and it's already up 14%. For the kind of asset that you generally buy and hold on to, that's a pretty big jump, and I'm...
I put some money into a physical gold trust myself starting on December 1st and it's already up 14%. For the kind of asset that you generally buy and hold on to, that's a pretty big jump, and I'm honestly thinking of swapping some more stock over to gold because I just don't see the US leadership's erratic behaviour getting better in the near term.
Similar here. I dumped all my US investments last February and reinvested in non-US international stocks, weighted heavily toward European defense (EUAD), plus a heaping side of gold (GLDM) to...
Similar here. I dumped all my US investments last February and reinvested in non-US international stocks, weighted heavily toward European defense (EUAD), plus a heaping side of gold (GLDM) to hedge against inflation.
It's a very strange, bittersweet seeing how wildly my portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500. I don't know much about investing (I inherited all my US stocks from my grandfather less than a year previously), but I know this can't be good.
Congrats on the success of your investments! Usually gold only behaves like this when there's a recession, and it's fantastic to get in early enough because there's so little risk that way....
Congrats on the success of your investments! Usually gold only behaves like this when there's a recession, and it's fantastic to get in early enough because there's so little risk that way. Historically, while gold can drop in price, it usually stabilizes pretty quickly and, so far, always comes back at some point. If you buy into one of its upswings early enough it's very safe relative to the potential returns.
It's been wild the last couple years, pretty much every major financial institution has been low on projections and has revised their numbers upwards multiple times a year. Currently all the institutions that haven't already posted new predictions in January are due to upgrade their projections in the next month or so because the price is already beyond their last quarter of 2026 projections and all of the signals are still strong (de-dollarization, geopolitical instability, central bank diversification, dollar inflation, falling interest rates, economic uncertainty). It's a perfect storm that sucks overall but it's good for precious metals.
Congrats! Oh man I'm so sad I didn't. Or rather, I predicted both a month or two before the stocks rocketed upwards but didn't have the liquidity to make any meaningful investment, both times. I...
Congrats! Oh man I'm so sad I didn't.
Or rather, I predicted both a month or two before the stocks rocketed upwards but didn't have the liquidity to make any meaningful investment, both times. I still got in but a lot later than I had hoped. Especially the EUAD stocks have seen such a meteoric rise I would've made my investment back multiple times.
To that point, there is a bit of wealth flight from the US market by European investors making new investments in the Eurozone instead. A lot of it directly into EUAD. Gold has been the in between for people not looking to invest in either the Euro or the Dollar. I also can't fault people for not wanting to invest in defense firms out of principle, I wouldn't have either before 2022.
Same here. 2022 and 2024 have turned me from "defense spending should be at an absolute minimum to maintain a standing army" to "hmm, maybye Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland should restart their...
I also can't fault people for not wanting to invest in defense firms out of principle, I wouldn't have either before 2022.
Same here. 2022 and 2024 have turned me from "defense spending should be at an absolute minimum to maintain a standing army" to "hmm, maybye Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland should restart their nuclear weapons programs"... Pacifism is an honorable goal, but pacifists tend to get massacred by tyrants, and the same applies at the international level, now that alliances involving the US and Russia arent worth the paper they are written on.
Since some people have asked adjacent questions, I'll post this here: ‘Repatriate the gold’: German economists advise withdrawal from US vaults (The Guardian)
Since some people have asked adjacent questions, I'll post this here:
Shift in relations and unpredictability of Donald Trump make it ‘risky to store so much gold in the US’, say experts
Germany is facing calls to withdraw its billions of euros’ worth of gold from US vaults, spurred on by the shift in transatlantic relations and the unpredictability of Donald Trump.
Germany holds the world’s second biggest national gold reserves after the US, of which approximately €164bn (£142bn) worth – 1,236 tonnes – is stored in New York.
I don't know that people will give the link a view without an explanation attached, so here's a quick synopsis: It's a 20+ minute recapping recent economic reactions to Trump's stance on Greenland...
I don't know that people will give the link a view without an explanation attached, so here's a quick synopsis:
It's a 20+ minute recapping recent economic reactions to Trump's stance on Greenland as well as some methods that the EU and adjacent countries have taken or thought about taking in order to put economic pressure on the US and US voters without putting EU citizens at risk (who are severely leveraged into US assets, companies, software ecosystems, and bonds among other things). The video then discusses why some policies sound good on paper, what EU efforts could be effective, and what wouldn't be effective without harming the EU economically and Europeans financially.
Worth a quick listen (and on 1.25x or 1.5x should be easy enough) for individuals interested in a recap in the recent events surrounding Greenland and the ... let's call it "north Atlantic economic situation" ... surrounding Trump policy.
Marvellous. I've lost so much business over the last nine months because of the price of gold going insane. I use gold. I don't trade it or hoard it, I melt the stuff down and I make things from...
Marvellous. I've lost so much business over the last nine months because of the price of gold going insane.
I use gold. I don't trade it or hoard it, I melt the stuff down and I make things from it. Mostly wedding rings. Y'know, perhaps the most important and significant piece of jewellery many people will own. For some people, the only piece of jewellery they own. But as in so many other spheres, the rich idly gambling on the future "value" of stuff are ruining things for the rest of us. So many potential customers are right now, unhappily, telling me they can't afford rings which would have cost £600-700 a year ago and are now £1000+. I've cut my margins back as far as I dare and I'm still losing business.
Throw in the US's stupid fucking tariffs turning off American customers (I sell, or rather used to sell, a lot to the US) and I'm out thousands of pounds in potential business over the last year.
Given the use for your business and the utility of it as an investment, would it be worthwhile to hold sizable amounts of gold as insurance against price increases?
Given the use for your business and the utility of it as an investment, would it be worthwhile to hold sizable amounts of gold as insurance against price increases?
Yes I'll definitely do that with all the spare money I've got lying around. I'd been wondering what I should do with that, it's been cluttering the place up something awful 😂 More fundamentally,...
Yes I'll definitely do that with all the spare money I've got lying around. I'd been wondering what I should do with that, it's been cluttering the place up something awful 😂
More fundamentally, even if it was an option, I don't want to be part of the problem. I don't think hoarders are good for society, so why would I choose to be one myself?
If you're a believer in gold as an investment, perhaps you could, in good conscience, sell your customers on the idea that it'll hold in value or gain in value? I hear of a lot of people wanting...
If you're a believer in gold as an investment, perhaps you could, in good conscience, sell your customers on the idea that it'll hold in value or gain in value? I hear of a lot of people wanting to buy gold, as an investment, in the form of jewelry so that it's quickly accessible and meanwhile serves a function. Targetting that customer base somehow might also help.
I don't believe in gold as an investment. I don't believe in people who have money now being able to get more money for free later just because they have money already. I think that's profoundly...
I don't believe in gold as an investment. I don't believe in people who have money now being able to get more money for free later just because they have money already. I think that's profoundly antisocial behaviour. Investing their spare money in businesses, sure, ok. I'd rather that's not how things work but ethically it is just about tolerable. Money making things where previously no things is less bad. But "investing" in the finite assets our planet came with? The things that should belong to everyone? That's hoarding. That's literally what dragons do. It's almost as bad as being a landlord, although at least nobody needs pretty shiny jewellery to stay alive.
The idea that something might be more valuable in the future doesn't pay bills now. If someone, perhaps younger couple getting married (lots of my customers are that), don't have the money available to spend on rings which cost nearly twice what they would have cost less than a year ago, then they don't have the money. Framing it as "an investment" doesn't change that.
Also what kind of person would buy rings which are symbolic of their eternal love as something they plan to sell later? Ugh. I'd sell them some, of course. Because bills. But still.
I understand this is a personal problem for you, but I would like to try and dispel some of the notions you have regarding investors. That will not soften the blow nor change your situation, and...
I understand this is a personal problem for you, but I would like to try and dispel some of the notions you have regarding investors. That will not soften the blow nor change your situation, and I'm sorry you're being hurt by this, perhaps this will change your mind who to blame for this gold rush.
Sure, there will be dragons investing in gold solely to create a hoard, but a surge in retail investment into gold is almost always because people are scared.
Now and historically, people buy gold to hedge against an uncertain future. When inflation is looming or even rapidly increasing, when trust in the fiscal policy of your country is eroding, when you're unsure the global reserve currency will remain stable, when the federal reserve is under threat of losing their independence, all of those things matter.
People buy gold not to hoard, they buy gold to protect themselves. When a president is actively undermining the stability of trade around the world you will see ordinary people rush to rid themselves of the money beneath their mattresses and shift to gold.
This current gold rush is a phenomenon happening worldwide and is, in this case, heavily spurred on by an erratic president at the helm of the US.
We've seen panicky wobbles in the economies of the world since 2008, exacerbated in both 2019/20 and 2022. Buying gold is a logical response when the erosion of this tenuous uncertainty is now manufactured by the fiscal and geopolitical policies of the country holding the global reserve currency.
Tldr: don't blame the ordinary scared people, blame the fools creating this unnecessary situation.
I appreciate you taking the time to offer your thoughts on this. The problem is that "ordinary" in the sentence above actually means "rich". Ordinary people - by which I mean the majority of...
Tldr: don't blame the ordinary scared people, blame the fools creating this unnecessary situation.
I appreciate you taking the time to offer your thoughts on this. The problem is that "ordinary" in the sentence above actually means "rich". Ordinary people - by which I mean the majority of humans on the planet - don't have spare cash to store as shiny metal.
I do already know why people are doing it - apart from the unknown proportion of predatory investors who are in it to profit from other people's worries - but ultimately dragons are dragons are dragons. That they're burning down everything outside to get more gold in order to make themselves feel safer doesn't help put a roof back over the local villager's heads. This metaphor is getting a little strained at this point but I can see the sky through the smoking roof of my business so I hope you'll excuse me a little poetic latitude.
I'm afraid that the people I'm blaming are all the people buying gold as an investment rather than as a material to use. Scared people - and I do appreciate why rich people are scared - could choose to hide their money somewhere else. Yes, the US is a shitshow and it's making a lot of mess on the global stage right now, but the US is not the whole world.
Back in the days when I was a rich person and could afford savings, I had some African and Indian development funds which did very nicely, both in terms of returns and making my money do actually good (albeit tiny) things for the world. Renewable energy is profitable and no matter what the US gets up to will remain so. It's not really hard to find somewhere safe, sustainable and beneficial to invest. I know next to nothing about it and I managed fine. If someone is lucky enough to have spare money and they can't be bothered to put in a small amount of effort to be responsible with it then I'm afraid I do not have much sympathy for them.
Gold is divisible, so there's no major barrier of entry financially. In many developing countries, middle and working class people hold their savings in gold.
Gold is divisible, so there's no major barrier of entry financially. In many developing countries, middle and working class people hold their savings in gold.
I think the barrier for a lot of people is actually having spare money lying around to turn into gold in the first place. That you can buy small bits of gold doesn't change that. The smallest gold...
I think the barrier for a lot of people is actually having spare money lying around to turn into gold in the first place.
That you can buy small bits of gold doesn't change that. The smallest gold bar my supplier sells is 1g, as of time of posting, £156. That's a pretty hefty barrier for a lot of people.
You can put £1 in an investment fund if you want. But you still need £1 which isn't earmarked for food or rent or energy bills or or or all the other myriad of ways money evaporates before the end of the month.
We're in a period of high current and projected inflation, particularly in the US, and people are trying to protect themselves from it. The reason people are being squeezed is because of inflation...
We're in a period of high current and projected inflation, particularly in the US, and people are trying to protect themselves from it. The reason people are being squeezed is because of inflation and that their wages aren't keeping up with it. In an ideal world, inflation would be relatively low and the labor income share of GDP relative to capital would be high enough such that you could reliably build wealth through productive work alone and that the only reliable way to build wealth would be through productive work alone. Unfortunately, we don't live in that world and you have to insulate yourself somehow from fiscal/monetary mismanagement.
But it's not just "the rich" who are buying gold. My parents (maybe third quartile of wealth in the US) had bought a few thousands worth of silver coins instead of investing it into a retirement...
But it's not just "the rich" who are buying gold. My parents (maybe third quartile of wealth in the US) had bought a few thousands worth of silver coins instead of investing it into a retirement fund.
In a time when it's not crazy to anticipate unilateral tariffs on the developing regions you mentioned, nor is it unreasonable to assume actively hostile actions against renewable energy projects (and/or steep tariffs against the input products for those projects), it's not unreasonable for small- time investors to see precious metals as a safer place to park the little money they have to save for personal retirement. While the huge institutional investors are definitely mucking up the market, it's definitely not fair to blame "all" investors in precious metals who are simply responding to the realities if the current political situation.
Yeah sorry your parents are rich. Well, not sorry. I mean, that is genuinely nice for them to be in that situation. I don't wish poverty on anyone! But if you can spare money to turn into gold,...
Yeah sorry your parents are rich. Well, not sorry. I mean, that is genuinely nice for them to be in that situation. I don't wish poverty on anyone!
But if you can spare money to turn into gold, you're rich. Not just on a global scale either. Over three quarters of Americans live paycheque to paycheque. A majority don't have emergency savings, let alone have money spare to invest in stuff.
I'm still blaming all investors. I think that is fair. I don't think they're all evil (some of them definitely are, of course), and I'm sure your parents are just doing what they think is best for themselves. But that's still hurting me.
So, eat the rich means we must rebel against anyone who owns an 800sqft home (and struggles to pay the mortgage), and one 20 year old car? The lower-middle class is not the enemy here. (I should...
So, eat the rich means we must rebel against anyone who owns an 800sqft home (and struggles to pay the mortgage), and one 20 year old car? The lower-middle class is not the enemy here. (I should also mention they were forced to sell their silver several years ago to cover bills)
Perhaps globally my parents are wealthy, but no individual lives globally, they must buy food, groceries, goods, and housing in their area. I feel like you're putting up a false dichotomy of Rich or Poor. Just because someone is not destitute and starving does not mean they are a capitalist exploiter bent on aquiring a dragons horde of wealth at all costs. I just feel like you're losing a ton of nuance here, both globally and locally.
Be fair, I never said anything about eating the rich. Also, eeeuuw. I'd go as far as compost the billionaires because they're better being turned into tasty mushrooms than greasy Elon-steaks. But...
Be fair, I never said anything about eating the rich. Also, eeeuuw. I'd go as far as compost the billionaires because they're better being turned into tasty mushrooms than greasy Elon-steaks. But there's a huge tranche of people who sit near the top of the inequality pyramid through no direct fault of their own. I don't know how we solve that issue.
If your parents are no longer hoarding precious metals then they're clearly not part of the problem. Or at least they're not part of my problem.
The paycheck to paycheck thing is a misleading stat that keeps getting repeated but it's not true. It's true if you discount all the savings that they have in the form of home equity, retirement...
The paycheck to paycheck thing is a misleading stat that keeps getting repeated but it's not true. It's true if you discount all the savings that they have in the form of home equity, retirement accounts, and other forms of investments. And then pretend that preferring to pay with a credit card means that they couldn't pay an expense otherwise. Seriously, that's how the articles always frame it if you dig enough. Check the median net worth of an American and see how it couldn't possibly jive.
Your definition of rich seems to be that any amount of money spent on 'investments' qualifies someone as rich because it's money spent that doesn't immediately contribute to their life in any way,...
But if you can spare money to turn into gold, you're rich. Not just on a global scale either. Over three quarters of Americans live paycheque to paycheque. A majority don't have emergency savings, let alone have money spare to invest in stuff.
Your definition of rich seems to be that any amount of money spent on 'investments' qualifies someone as rich because it's money spent that doesn't immediately contribute to their life in any way, while broke is simply not having money to spend on investments.
So if two people each make $50k and live in the same area with same cost of living, and one person spends their $50k on goods and services and has nothing left over and they live paycheck to paycheck, they're broke, but if someone else takes their 50k and doesn't spend all of it and instead spends it on gold 'investments', they're rich. That doesn't make sense to me considering they make the same amount of money.
People have a really warped view of what it means to be rich. And I don't mean "dumb people" or anything derogatory. I think it's a really wide reaching issue. We're constantly fed information...
People have a really warped view of what it means to be rich. And I don't mean "dumb people" or anything derogatory. I think it's a really wide reaching issue. We're constantly fed information about billionaire CEOs, bankers, old-money families, country leaders and others making up the 0.01% that it disproportionately anchors the line we draw for what we determine to mean by "rich*.
You're absolutely right. On a global scale or a national scale, having thousands to dump into anything that's not an immediate need or basic comfort you are most certainly rich.
Consider that a salary of $60,000 (£44,000; €51,000) puts you in the top 1% globally [1].
$35,000 (£26,000; €30,000) puts you in the top 5%. Think about that. Richer than 95% of people in the world. How can that fall under any other definition than rich?
Then think about how far that kind of salary goes in the areas you can live and earn them.
Agreed - being “rich” on a global scale has little to nothing to do with the day-to-day lives people experience. $35k/year is more or less minimum wage here, and nobody in that income bracket...
Agreed - being “rich” on a global scale has little to nothing to do with the day-to-day lives people experience. $35k/year is more or less minimum wage here, and nobody in that income bracket would be considered middle class, forget “rich”, regardless of where they stack up on a global scale.
"Geopolitical tensions, generally weak dollar, expectations for the Fed easing this year are all factors that are part and parcel of the macro de-dollarisation trend and are still impacting the demand (for gold)," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.
I've never really understood why investments are made in gold. The metal has, as far as a I understand, little practical value. It is a great conductor, but it's utility in that respect doesn't...
I've never really understood why investments are made in gold. The metal has, as far as a I understand, little practical value. It is a great conductor, but it's utility in that respect doesn't seem to warrant the price. Of course gold has s long tradition of being sought after since it is sort of rare. I can see the appeal of owning something rare (sort of), but today it is fairly common to see. So is it just the expectations that it will hold its value over time that is the draw? What is that expectation based on?
My understanding is that it is the history of value that is important. Literally throughout history it has been valuable and desired, and has use in the form of jewellery and coinage. That deep...
My understanding is that it is the history of value that is important. Literally throughout history it has been valuable and desired, and has use in the form of jewellery and coinage. That deep seated cultural perception of value is unlikely to change quickly, and even if it does it is likely to still has some value.
Then on top, there is a very limited amount of it, recognisable and of relatively constant quality which is why it has been historically useful as currency. If digital and fiat currencies collapse, it’s feasible for gold to be seen as an alternative.
The final reason I see gold as a good investment currently (although who knows at these prices) is that India is going through a significant economic growth period, and gold holds a really central cultural position in terms of value, jewellery and prestige. The demand for gold is likely to increase.
Another factor that contributes to gold's value is that, historically, it was the densest known substance on Earth. This made it almost impossible to scam people by alloying gold with cheaper...
Another factor that contributes to gold's value is that, historically, it was the densest known substance on Earth. This made it almost impossible to scam people by alloying gold with cheaper metals. Anyone with a scale and a bowl of water could trivially calculate the gold's purity — so even if gold was less useful or less rare than other metals, people still preferred to trade with it, inflating its value.
Interesting, I had assumed lead had a similar density, but your comment made me check and nope lead has a density of 11g/cm3 while gold is 19! For anyone interested the denser materials than gold...
Interesting, I had assumed lead had a similar density, but your comment made me check and nope lead has a density of 11g/cm3 while gold is 19! For anyone interested the denser materials than gold include plutonium, rhenium, platinum, iridium and osmium (the densest element on earth).
Aside from gold, other metals like silver and palladium are also skyrocketing. There's an inherent value to something that doesn't tarnish or decay. Since you can store and stockpile it, it's easy...
Aside from gold, other metals like silver and palladium are also skyrocketing.
There's an inherent value to something that doesn't tarnish or decay. Since you can store and stockpile it, it's easy to imagine it as a substitute for goods. It's much easier to hold the value of 50 tons of grain in gold than it is to hold 50 tons of grain.
The fact there's a relatively limited amount of it makes it have value and makes it robust against inflation, but also serves as a way to hedge against inflationary fiat currency like the dollar. Triple whammy.
Why specifically gold is probably a mixture of aforementioned reasons, though never rule out that it's also plain and simple because people just really like the way gold looks.
Silver and platinum have risen more and that is likely due to trade restrictions from China and their use as industrial components. There will be some component of that rise that is due to their...
Silver and platinum have risen more and that is likely due to trade restrictions from China and their use as industrial components. There will be some component of that rise that is due to their precious metal status, but most is not.
Since there’s a few people here debating why gold is considered valuable, I’ll leave a Johnny Harris video on the topic, which I found fascinating & informative.
Since there’s a few people here debating why gold is considered valuable, I’ll leave a Johnny Harris video on the topic, which I found fascinating & informative.
You already guessed it, but a majority of the price is just historical momentum. It has been used as a store of value in the past and, therefore, is expected to be a "safe" asset to store value...
You already guessed it, but a majority of the price is just historical momentum. It has been used as a store of value in the past and, therefore, is expected to be a "safe" asset to store value into the future. It really doesn't have anything to do with rarity or industrial uses since you can easily compare it to other metals like platinum, which is something like 10x rarer than gold, has more industrial applications and is far cheaper.
On Friday the silver melt value of a Morgan (or Peace) one-dollar coin was nearly $80. Franklin half dollars are around $37. Nearly half that value has been added since late November. This is like...
On Friday the silver melt value of a Morgan (or Peace) one-dollar coin was nearly $80. Franklin half dollars are around $37. Nearly half that value has been added since late November.
This is like watching the watch collecting craze all over again, but the valuations really are skyrocketing right now. I feel bad for the casual coin collectors, but maybe this will start a whole new generation of collectors/hobbyists who are curious about other coins more for their history and their affordability than chasing the top value/rarity/condition.
I have some from colonial Africa and South America that are interesting. Also some Philippine centavos that were minted in the US. They've been in the family a while, though I don't know how many generations -- and they were certainly picked up second-hand.
I don't know anything about coins but due to a previous job I have about 200 silver washington quarters. A quick search for the melt price says it's about $18/quarter right now. Can I...
I don't know anything about coins but due to a previous job I have about 200 silver washington quarters. A quick search for the melt price says it's about $18/quarter right now. Can I realistically sell them for this?
If you can find someone interested in "90% coins," and that's a big IF because lots of people are dumping, then you'll get whatever a bulk buyer is willing to offer you. I would expect that to be...
If you can find someone interested in "90% coins," and that's a big IF because lots of people are dumping, then you'll get whatever a bulk buyer is willing to offer you. I would expect that to be 25% less than spot if they're being nice to you (so 75% of the melt value). But silver/gold dealers really prefer pure because they'll be able to flip it immediately or hold onto it for a little bit.
90% coins (1964 and earlier for many US coins, but most pennies of course have 0% silver) have to be melted down to get out the impure metals. So it's a process with some expense associated with it which is why gold/silver dealers aren't going to get anywhere near spot price. Buyers of silver would prefer the .999 stuff anyway.
Outside of dealers, individuals may have some interest but you would have to figure out how to safely do that transaction person-to-person.
Gold being up 3-5% today, and silver up by around 3-7% is just crazy. Reuters chart (Edit: % increase depends on when your trading day starts, so I revised the percentages to a range to be more...
Gold being up 3-5% today, and silver up by around 3-7% is just crazy. Reuters chart (Edit: % increase depends on when your trading day starts, so I revised the percentages to a range to be more accurate.)
Since the US Federal Reserve had their press event today, I wanted to mention the Trump admin has been saying that inflation is a "solved issue" and not really a problem. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was on TV the other day, and apparently had been saying this for a while, that growth in the US is great and that he thinks we'll have a 5-6% increase in GDP.
A CEO of a wealth management company just said on TV that US Real GDP will be something like 3.25% (if I heard correctly), while Nominal GDP will be over 6%. And it's only January so these forecasts may change. Anyway, changes in GDP, without changes in wage growth, purchasing power, etc. is inflationary. So when moderate governments target 2% GDP growth, that's because they're trying to keep inflation to a relatively stable amount so there aren't large fluctuations that are uncomfortable for the consumers who will feel it the most (and small businesses as well as businesses that may depend on international trade).
I own gold, not the actual bullions, but stocks in a physical gold trust. This is the one stock I don't want to see go to 10k because that would indicate a deep seated problem with the global financial market, if not crashed by that point already.
The rising gold and silver prices are unironically a recession indicator.
I read a theory that gold is skyrocketing because countries are trying to get more gold as the stupid actions of the US is causing confidence in the dollar to be lost. Almost like an alternative to a US-backed reserve.
I've never bought gold in my life but my god, I don't think it would be a bad idea now.
That is true. Nations are buying record amounts of gold to restock their gold reserve but it's especially compounded by retail buyers buying gold to an insane degree too. When individual buyers start stockpiling gold you need to worry.
Regarding your last statement... I couldn't tell you. I'd warn against it as a vehicle for profit, it has seen such an insane rally month over month over month that you have to wonder when the bottom falls out.
As a hedge against the devaluation of the global reserve currency? Maybe? But we'll have bigger problems if it comes to that. I wasn't joking when I said this is the one stock I don't want to see going to 10k.
Ultimately, it's up to you. You're late to the party and it's also likely that we see the dollar stabilize and gold starts cratering again. We may also see the dollar continue to crater and gold becomes a safe place for money. Who knows?
This is most definitely not financial advise, I've proven time and time again that I'm far too stupid to trade effectively.
Don’t try to time markets as individuals. What you just said? Everyone knows that. It’s priced in, already. Most serious players in a market know way more. Gold is nearly zero-sum as a market.
I put some money into a physical gold trust myself starting on December 1st and it's already up 14%. For the kind of asset that you generally buy and hold on to, that's a pretty big jump, and I'm honestly thinking of swapping some more stock over to gold because I just don't see the US leadership's erratic behaviour getting better in the near term.
Similar here. I dumped all my US investments last February and reinvested in non-US international stocks, weighted heavily toward European defense (EUAD), plus a heaping side of gold (GLDM) to hedge against inflation.
It's a very strange, bittersweet seeing how wildly my portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500. I don't know much about investing (I inherited all my US stocks from my grandfather less than a year previously), but I know this can't be good.
Congrats on the success of your investments! Usually gold only behaves like this when there's a recession, and it's fantastic to get in early enough because there's so little risk that way. Historically, while gold can drop in price, it usually stabilizes pretty quickly and, so far, always comes back at some point. If you buy into one of its upswings early enough it's very safe relative to the potential returns.
It's been wild the last couple years, pretty much every major financial institution has been low on projections and has revised their numbers upwards multiple times a year. Currently all the institutions that haven't already posted new predictions in January are due to upgrade their projections in the next month or so because the price is already beyond their last quarter of 2026 projections and all of the signals are still strong (de-dollarization, geopolitical instability, central bank diversification, dollar inflation, falling interest rates, economic uncertainty). It's a perfect storm that sucks overall but it's good for precious metals.
Congrats! Oh man I'm so sad I didn't.
Or rather, I predicted both a month or two before the stocks rocketed upwards but didn't have the liquidity to make any meaningful investment, both times. I still got in but a lot later than I had hoped. Especially the EUAD stocks have seen such a meteoric rise I would've made my investment back multiple times.
To that point, there is a bit of wealth flight from the US market by European investors making new investments in the Eurozone instead. A lot of it directly into EUAD. Gold has been the in between for people not looking to invest in either the Euro or the Dollar. I also can't fault people for not wanting to invest in defense firms out of principle, I wouldn't have either before 2022.
Same here. 2022 and 2024 have turned me from "defense spending should be at an absolute minimum to maintain a standing army" to "hmm, maybye Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland should restart their nuclear weapons programs"... Pacifism is an honorable goal, but pacifists tend to get massacred by tyrants, and the same applies at the international level, now that alliances involving the US and Russia arent worth the paper they are written on.
Since some people have asked adjacent questions, I'll post this here:
‘Repatriate the gold’: German economists advise withdrawal from US vaults (The Guardian)
I'll share this video along similar lines.
https://youtu.be/L_zlYjjtNPM?si=tEofDtGWH0IHin_f
I don't know that people will give the link a view without an explanation attached, so here's a quick synopsis:
It's a 20+ minute recapping recent economic reactions to Trump's stance on Greenland as well as some methods that the EU and adjacent countries have taken or thought about taking in order to put economic pressure on the US and US voters without putting EU citizens at risk (who are severely leveraged into US assets, companies, software ecosystems, and bonds among other things). The video then discusses why some policies sound good on paper, what EU efforts could be effective, and what wouldn't be effective without harming the EU economically and Europeans financially.
Worth a quick listen (and on 1.25x or 1.5x should be easy enough) for individuals interested in a recap in the recent events surrounding Greenland and the ... let's call it "north Atlantic economic situation" ... surrounding Trump policy.
Marvellous. I've lost so much business over the last nine months because of the price of gold going insane.
I use gold. I don't trade it or hoard it, I melt the stuff down and I make things from it. Mostly wedding rings. Y'know, perhaps the most important and significant piece of jewellery many people will own. For some people, the only piece of jewellery they own. But as in so many other spheres, the rich idly gambling on the future "value" of stuff are ruining things for the rest of us. So many potential customers are right now, unhappily, telling me they can't afford rings which would have cost £600-700 a year ago and are now £1000+. I've cut my margins back as far as I dare and I'm still losing business.
Throw in the US's stupid fucking tariffs turning off American customers (I sell, or rather used to sell, a lot to the US) and I'm out thousands of pounds in potential business over the last year.
Given the use for your business and the utility of it as an investment, would it be worthwhile to hold sizable amounts of gold as insurance against price increases?
Yes I'll definitely do that with all the spare money I've got lying around. I'd been wondering what I should do with that, it's been cluttering the place up something awful 😂
More fundamentally, even if it was an option, I don't want to be part of the problem. I don't think hoarders are good for society, so why would I choose to be one myself?
If you're a believer in gold as an investment, perhaps you could, in good conscience, sell your customers on the idea that it'll hold in value or gain in value? I hear of a lot of people wanting to buy gold, as an investment, in the form of jewelry so that it's quickly accessible and meanwhile serves a function. Targetting that customer base somehow might also help.
I don't believe in gold as an investment. I don't believe in people who have money now being able to get more money for free later just because they have money already. I think that's profoundly antisocial behaviour. Investing their spare money in businesses, sure, ok. I'd rather that's not how things work but ethically it is just about tolerable. Money making things where previously no things is less bad. But "investing" in the finite assets our planet came with? The things that should belong to everyone? That's hoarding. That's literally what dragons do. It's almost as bad as being a landlord, although at least nobody needs pretty shiny jewellery to stay alive.
The idea that something might be more valuable in the future doesn't pay bills now. If someone, perhaps younger couple getting married (lots of my customers are that), don't have the money available to spend on rings which cost nearly twice what they would have cost less than a year ago, then they don't have the money. Framing it as "an investment" doesn't change that.
Also what kind of person would buy rings which are symbolic of their eternal love as something they plan to sell later? Ugh. I'd sell them some, of course. Because bills. But still.
I understand this is a personal problem for you, but I would like to try and dispel some of the notions you have regarding investors. That will not soften the blow nor change your situation, and I'm sorry you're being hurt by this, perhaps this will change your mind who to blame for this gold rush.
Sure, there will be dragons investing in gold solely to create a hoard, but a surge in retail investment into gold is almost always because people are scared.
Now and historically, people buy gold to hedge against an uncertain future. When inflation is looming or even rapidly increasing, when trust in the fiscal policy of your country is eroding, when you're unsure the global reserve currency will remain stable, when the federal reserve is under threat of losing their independence, all of those things matter.
People buy gold not to hoard, they buy gold to protect themselves. When a president is actively undermining the stability of trade around the world you will see ordinary people rush to rid themselves of the money beneath their mattresses and shift to gold.
This current gold rush is a phenomenon happening worldwide and is, in this case, heavily spurred on by an erratic president at the helm of the US.
We've seen panicky wobbles in the economies of the world since 2008, exacerbated in both 2019/20 and 2022. Buying gold is a logical response when the erosion of this tenuous uncertainty is now manufactured by the fiscal and geopolitical policies of the country holding the global reserve currency.
Tldr: don't blame the ordinary scared people, blame the fools creating this unnecessary situation.
I appreciate you taking the time to offer your thoughts on this. The problem is that "ordinary" in the sentence above actually means "rich". Ordinary people - by which I mean the majority of humans on the planet - don't have spare cash to store as shiny metal.
I do already know why people are doing it - apart from the unknown proportion of predatory investors who are in it to profit from other people's worries - but ultimately dragons are dragons are dragons. That they're burning down everything outside to get more gold in order to make themselves feel safer doesn't help put a roof back over the local villager's heads. This metaphor is getting a little strained at this point but I can see the sky through the smoking roof of my business so I hope you'll excuse me a little poetic latitude.
I'm afraid that the people I'm blaming are all the people buying gold as an investment rather than as a material to use. Scared people - and I do appreciate why rich people are scared - could choose to hide their money somewhere else. Yes, the US is a shitshow and it's making a lot of mess on the global stage right now, but the US is not the whole world.
Back in the days when I was a rich person and could afford savings, I had some African and Indian development funds which did very nicely, both in terms of returns and making my money do actually good (albeit tiny) things for the world. Renewable energy is profitable and no matter what the US gets up to will remain so. It's not really hard to find somewhere safe, sustainable and beneficial to invest. I know next to nothing about it and I managed fine. If someone is lucky enough to have spare money and they can't be bothered to put in a small amount of effort to be responsible with it then I'm afraid I do not have much sympathy for them.
Gold is divisible, so there's no major barrier of entry financially. In many developing countries, middle and working class people hold their savings in gold.
I think the barrier for a lot of people is actually having spare money lying around to turn into gold in the first place.
That you can buy small bits of gold doesn't change that. The smallest gold bar my supplier sells is 1g, as of time of posting, £156. That's a pretty hefty barrier for a lot of people.
You can put £1 in an investment fund if you want. But you still need £1 which isn't earmarked for food or rent or energy bills or or or all the other myriad of ways money evaporates before the end of the month.
We're in a period of high current and projected inflation, particularly in the US, and people are trying to protect themselves from it. The reason people are being squeezed is because of inflation and that their wages aren't keeping up with it. In an ideal world, inflation would be relatively low and the labor income share of GDP relative to capital would be high enough such that you could reliably build wealth through productive work alone and that the only reliable way to build wealth would be through productive work alone. Unfortunately, we don't live in that world and you have to insulate yourself somehow from fiscal/monetary mismanagement.
But it's not just "the rich" who are buying gold. My parents (maybe third quartile of wealth in the US) had bought a few thousands worth of silver coins instead of investing it into a retirement fund.
In a time when it's not crazy to anticipate unilateral tariffs on the developing regions you mentioned, nor is it unreasonable to assume actively hostile actions against renewable energy projects (and/or steep tariffs against the input products for those projects), it's not unreasonable for small- time investors to see precious metals as a safer place to park the little money they have to save for personal retirement. While the huge institutional investors are definitely mucking up the market, it's definitely not fair to blame "all" investors in precious metals who are simply responding to the realities if the current political situation.
Yeah sorry your parents are rich. Well, not sorry. I mean, that is genuinely nice for them to be in that situation. I don't wish poverty on anyone!
But if you can spare money to turn into gold, you're rich. Not just on a global scale either. Over three quarters of Americans live paycheque to paycheque. A majority don't have emergency savings, let alone have money spare to invest in stuff.
I'm still blaming all investors. I think that is fair. I don't think they're all evil (some of them definitely are, of course), and I'm sure your parents are just doing what they think is best for themselves. But that's still hurting me.
So, eat the rich means we must rebel against anyone who owns an 800sqft home (and struggles to pay the mortgage), and one 20 year old car? The lower-middle class is not the enemy here. (I should also mention they were forced to sell their silver several years ago to cover bills)
Perhaps globally my parents are wealthy, but no individual lives globally, they must buy food, groceries, goods, and housing in their area. I feel like you're putting up a false dichotomy of Rich or Poor. Just because someone is not destitute and starving does not mean they are a capitalist exploiter bent on aquiring a dragons horde of wealth at all costs. I just feel like you're losing a ton of nuance here, both globally and locally.
Be fair, I never said anything about eating the rich. Also, eeeuuw. I'd go as far as compost the billionaires because they're better being turned into tasty mushrooms than greasy Elon-steaks. But there's a huge tranche of people who sit near the top of the inequality pyramid through no direct fault of their own. I don't know how we solve that issue.
If your parents are no longer hoarding precious metals then they're clearly not part of the problem. Or at least they're not part of my problem.
The paycheck to paycheck thing is a misleading stat that keeps getting repeated but it's not true. It's true if you discount all the savings that they have in the form of home equity, retirement accounts, and other forms of investments. And then pretend that preferring to pay with a credit card means that they couldn't pay an expense otherwise. Seriously, that's how the articles always frame it if you dig enough. Check the median net worth of an American and see how it couldn't possibly jive.
Your definition of rich seems to be that any amount of money spent on 'investments' qualifies someone as rich because it's money spent that doesn't immediately contribute to their life in any way, while broke is simply not having money to spend on investments.
So if two people each make $50k and live in the same area with same cost of living, and one person spends their $50k on goods and services and has nothing left over and they live paycheck to paycheck, they're broke, but if someone else takes their 50k and doesn't spend all of it and instead spends it on gold 'investments', they're rich. That doesn't make sense to me considering they make the same amount of money.
People have a really warped view of what it means to be rich. And I don't mean "dumb people" or anything derogatory. I think it's a really wide reaching issue. We're constantly fed information about billionaire CEOs, bankers, old-money families, country leaders and others making up the 0.01% that it disproportionately anchors the line we draw for what we determine to mean by "rich*.
You're absolutely right. On a global scale or a national scale, having thousands to dump into anything that's not an immediate need or basic comfort you are most certainly rich.
Consider that a salary of $60,000 (£44,000; €51,000) puts you in the top 1% globally [1].
$35,000 (£26,000; €30,000) puts you in the top 5%. Think about that. Richer than 95% of people in the world. How can that fall under any other definition than rich?
Then think about how far that kind of salary goes in the areas you can live and earn them.
[1] Lots of Americans are in the global 1%. A tenth of their income could transform the world - Sigal Samuel
Agreed - being “rich” on a global scale has little to nothing to do with the day-to-day lives people experience. $35k/year is more or less minimum wage here, and nobody in that income bracket would be considered middle class, forget “rich”, regardless of where they stack up on a global scale.
I've never really understood why investments are made in gold. The metal has, as far as a I understand, little practical value. It is a great conductor, but it's utility in that respect doesn't seem to warrant the price. Of course gold has s long tradition of being sought after since it is sort of rare. I can see the appeal of owning something rare (sort of), but today it is fairly common to see. So is it just the expectations that it will hold its value over time that is the draw? What is that expectation based on?
My understanding is that it is the history of value that is important. Literally throughout history it has been valuable and desired, and has use in the form of jewellery and coinage. That deep seated cultural perception of value is unlikely to change quickly, and even if it does it is likely to still has some value.
Then on top, there is a very limited amount of it, recognisable and of relatively constant quality which is why it has been historically useful as currency. If digital and fiat currencies collapse, it’s feasible for gold to be seen as an alternative.
The final reason I see gold as a good investment currently (although who knows at these prices) is that India is going through a significant economic growth period, and gold holds a really central cultural position in terms of value, jewellery and prestige. The demand for gold is likely to increase.
This cannot be understated. Indian women hold roughly 11% of the entire world's gold supply.
Another factor that contributes to gold's value is that, historically, it was the densest known substance on Earth. This made it almost impossible to scam people by alloying gold with cheaper metals. Anyone with a scale and a bowl of water could trivially calculate the gold's purity — so even if gold was less useful or less rare than other metals, people still preferred to trade with it, inflating its value.
Interesting, I had assumed lead had a similar density, but your comment made me check and nope lead has a density of 11g/cm3 while gold is 19! For anyone interested the denser materials than gold include plutonium, rhenium, platinum, iridium and osmium (the densest element on earth).
Aside from gold, other metals like silver and palladium are also skyrocketing.
There's an inherent value to something that doesn't tarnish or decay. Since you can store and stockpile it, it's easy to imagine it as a substitute for goods. It's much easier to hold the value of 50 tons of grain in gold than it is to hold 50 tons of grain.
The fact there's a relatively limited amount of it makes it have value and makes it robust against inflation, but also serves as a way to hedge against inflationary fiat currency like the dollar. Triple whammy.
Why specifically gold is probably a mixture of aforementioned reasons, though never rule out that it's also plain and simple because people just really like the way gold looks.
Silver and platinum have risen more and that is likely due to trade restrictions from China and their use as industrial components. There will be some component of that rise that is due to their precious metal status, but most is not.
You're entirely right. Even so, all precious metals have seen retail investment spike in the past year.
Since there’s a few people here debating why gold is considered valuable, I’ll leave a Johnny Harris video on the topic, which I found fascinating & informative.
You already guessed it, but a majority of the price is just historical momentum. It has been used as a store of value in the past and, therefore, is expected to be a "safe" asset to store value into the future. It really doesn't have anything to do with rarity or industrial uses since you can easily compare it to other metals like platinum, which is something like 10x rarer than gold, has more industrial applications and is far cheaper.
A fascinating and relevant graph: Gold vs US bonds as % of worldwide central bank reserves. Really calls to mind the phrase 'end of an era'.
I haven't bought coins in a few years now cause $30+ for a 21 Morgan is still just too insane for my brain to accept
On Friday the silver melt value of a Morgan (or Peace) one-dollar coin was nearly $80. Franklin half dollars are around $37. Nearly half that value has been added since late November.
This is like watching the watch collecting craze all over again, but the valuations really are skyrocketing right now. I feel bad for the casual coin collectors, but maybe this will start a whole new generation of collectors/hobbyists who are curious about other coins more for their history and their affordability than chasing the top value/rarity/condition.
I have some from colonial Africa and South America that are interesting. Also some Philippine centavos that were minted in the US. They've been in the family a while, though I don't know how many generations -- and they were certainly picked up second-hand.
Jfc what in the world is happening
I don't know anything about coins but due to a previous job I have about 200 silver washington quarters. A quick search for the melt price says it's about $18/quarter right now. Can I realistically sell them for this?
If you can find someone interested in "90% coins," and that's a big IF because lots of people are dumping, then you'll get whatever a bulk buyer is willing to offer you. I would expect that to be 25% less than spot if they're being nice to you (so 75% of the melt value). But silver/gold dealers really prefer pure because they'll be able to flip it immediately or hold onto it for a little bit.
90% coins (1964 and earlier for many US coins, but most pennies of course have 0% silver) have to be melted down to get out the impure metals. So it's a process with some expense associated with it which is why gold/silver dealers aren't going to get anywhere near spot price. Buyers of silver would prefer the .999 stuff anyway.
Outside of dealers, individuals may have some interest but you would have to figure out how to safely do that transaction person-to-person.
Gold being up 3-5% today, and silver up by around 3-7% is just crazy. Reuters chart (Edit: % increase depends on when your trading day starts, so I revised the percentages to a range to be more accurate.)
Since the US Federal Reserve had their press event today, I wanted to mention the Trump admin has been saying that inflation is a "solved issue" and not really a problem. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was on TV the other day, and apparently had been saying this for a while, that growth in the US is great and that he thinks we'll have a 5-6% increase in GDP.
A CEO of a wealth management company just said on TV that US Real GDP will be something like 3.25% (if I heard correctly), while Nominal GDP will be over 6%. And it's only January so these forecasts may change. Anyway, changes in GDP, without changes in wage growth, purchasing power, etc. is inflationary. So when moderate governments target 2% GDP growth, that's because they're trying to keep inflation to a relatively stable amount so there aren't large fluctuations that are uncomfortable for the consumers who will feel it the most (and small businesses as well as businesses that may depend on international trade).
Further reading:
How GDP Growth Drives Inflation (Investopedia)
Asset Price Inflation (i.e. stocks, commodities) vs. GDP: Understanding the Key Differences (Investopedia)
Real GDP vs. GDP: When Economists Prefer Inflation-Adjusted Metrics (Investopedia)