Picture:

1. Emilia Perez
2. Conclave
3. The Brutalist
4. Anora
5. A Complete Unknown
6. The Substance
7. Wicked
8. Dune Part Two
9. A Real Pain
10. Nickel Boys

Director:

1. Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
2. Jacque Audiard - Emilia Perez
3. Edward Berger - Conclave
4. Sean Baker - Anora
5. Coralie Fargeat - The Substance

Original Screenplay:

1. Anora
2. The Substance
3. A Real Pain
4. The Brutalist
5. Challengers

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Conclave
2. Emilia Perez
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Nickel Boys
5. Dune Part Two

Lead Actor:

1. Adrian Brody - The Brutalist
2. Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
3. Ralph Fiennes - Conclave
4. Colman Domingo - Sing Sing
5. Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice

Lead Actress:

1. Demi Moore - The Substance
2. Sofia Gascon - Emilia Perez
3. Mikey Madison - Anora
4. Cynthia Erivo - Wicked
5. Fernanda Torres - I’m Still Here

Supporting Actor:

1. Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
2. Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown
3. Guy Pearce - The Brutalist
4. Yuriy Borisov - Anora
5. Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice

Supporting Actress:

1. Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez
2. Ariana Grande - Wicked
3. Margaret Qualley - The Substance
4. Isabella Rosellini - Conclave
5. Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown

Film Editing:

1. Emilia Perez
2. Conclave
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Wicked
5. The Substance

Cinematography:

1. The Brutalist
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Emilia Perez
4. Nosferatu
5. Conclave

Sound:

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Wicked
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Alien: Romulus
5. Gladiator II

Original Score:

1. The Brutalist
2. Conclave
3. The Wild Robot
4. Emilia Perez
5. Challengers

Original Song:

1. El Mal from Emilia Perez
2. Kiss the Sky from The Wild Robot
3. Mi Camino from Emilia Perez
4. The Journey from The Six Triple Eight
5. Compress/Repress from Challengers

Costume Design:

1. Wicked
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Nosferatu
4. A Complete Unknown
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Hair & Make-up:

1. The Substance
2. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
3. Wicked
4. Nosferatu
5. A Different Man

Production Design:

1. Wicked
2. Dune: Part Two
3. The Brutalist
4. Conclave
5. Nosferatu

VFX:

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
3. Wicked
4. Alien: Romulus
5. Twisters

Animated Feature:

1. Flow
2. The Wild Robot
3. Inside Out 2
4. Memoir of a Snail
5. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

International Feature:

1. Emilia Perez
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
3. I'm Still Here
4. Kneecap
5. Flow

We are officially one week away from the Oscar's and all the precursors (being the award shows that happen before the Oscar's) have come and gone. Here's where I think the Oscar's will go on March 10th.

Picture: Oppenheimer

It's a done deal.

Director: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer

Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall

After unexpectedly winning the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay it immediately became the front-runner in the category besting previous front-runners The Holdovers and Barbie (which got switched over to Adapted anyway). Having picked up the BAFTA in the same category, it's locked.

Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction

Also having won the BAFTA for Adapted Screenplay, beating out Poor Things and Oppenheimer (which BAFTA loved) this is also pretty clearly the favorite to win here. Two weak winners in a row for this category imo.

Lead Actor: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

This seemed obvious for a long time, but now that he's swept all the awards it's a done deal..

Lead Actress: Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon

This is actually a tight race between her and Emma Stone in Poor Things. They both won the Globe and Stone won the BAFTA while Gladstone won SAG. Gladstone wasn't even nominated at BAFTA (despite the jury being there to nominate minorities) which complicated the race. However, with SAG having gone after BAFTA I think that'll have more influence and give Gladstone more momentum. Also, most of the time when SAG gives Best Ensemble to the eventual Picture winner they tend to go 4/4 in the acting categories.

Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer

He swept like Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

Supporting Actress: D'avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

Also swept.

Original Score: Oppenheimer

Original Song: What Was I Made For? from Barbie

Sound: Oppenheimer

Production Design: Poor Things

Cinematography: Oppenheimer

Makeup & Hairstyling: Maestro

Costume Design: Barbie

Poor Things won BAFTA, however BAFTA as a whole did not like Barbie very much. And there's too much iconography attached to the film in this category that I think the Oscar's will go for it over Poor Things.

Film Editing: Oppenheimer

Visual Effects: The Creator

After the branch snubbed both Oppenheimer and Poor Things, it muddled the winner in this category. People initially thought Guardians of the Galaxy 3 would be the winner. But there's pretty severe anti-superhero bias in the category. The Creator won at the VFX guild, it's flashy, it looks good, and it's somewhat of a "serious" movie.

Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

This isn't as clear as a race as I thought it would have been. Globes and BAFTA went with Boy and the Heron in this category while Critic's Choice and PGA went with Spider-Verse. The Oscar's usually goes populist in this category (eg they went with Toy Story 4 when Globes and BAFTA went in a more artsy direction). So I'm sticking with Spider-Man here.

Documentary Feature: 20 Days in Mariupol

Live Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

This would give Wes Anderson his first Oscar win, if the Academy doesn't blue ball him.

Animated Short: Letter to a Pig

Documentary Short: The ABC's of Book Banning

Nominations are coming out on Tuesday. Here's my final predictions on what gets in:

Picture

1. Oppenheimer
2. The Holdovers
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Poor Things
5. Barbie
6. Maestro
7. Anatomy of a Fall
8. Past Lives
9. The Zone of Interest
10. American Fiction

Director

1. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
2. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things
4. Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall
5. Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. Anatomy of a Fall
4. Maestro
5. May December

Adapted Screenplay

1. Poor Things
2. Barbie
3. Oppenheimer
4. American Fiction
5. Killers of the Flower Moon

Lead Actor

1. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
3. Bradley Cooper - Maestro
4. Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction
5. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon

Lead Actress

1. Emma Stone - Poor Things
2. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
4. Carey Mulligan - Maestro
5. Margot Robbie - Barbie

Supporting Actor

1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
3. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
5. Dominic Sessa - The Holdovers

Supporting Actress

1. D'avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
3. Sandra Huller - The Zone of Interest
4. Penelope Cruz - Ferrari
5. Florence Pugh - Oppenheimer

Film Editing

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Barbie
5. The Holdovers

Sound

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Maestro
4. The Zone of Interest
5. Ferrari

Cinematography

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Maestro
5. The Zone of Interest

Costume Design

1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Oppenheimer
5. Napoleon

Production Design

1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Oppenheimer
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Napoleon

Make-up and Hairstyling

1. Oppenheimer
2. Maestro
3. Poor Things
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Golda

Original Score

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Zone of Interest
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Original Song

1. I'm Just Ken from Barbie
2. What Was I Made For? from Barbie
3. Dance the Night from Barbie
4. Road to Freedom from Rustin
5. Quiet Eyes from Past Lives

VFX

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
2. The Creator
3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
4. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
5. Poor Things

Animated Feature

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2. The Boy and the Heron
3. Elemental
4. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
5. Nimona

Documentary

1. American Symphony
2. 20 Days in Mariupol
3. Four Daughters
4. Beyond Utopia
5. The Eternal Memory

International Film

1. The Zone of Interest
2. Society of Snow
3. Fallen Leaves
4. The Taste of Things
5. Perfect Days