From the article: ... ... The article describes several strategies used to reduce costs. It still seems pretty expensive, but setting limits on potential cost reductions seems hard.
From the article:
One of the most comprehensive critiques of cultured meat’s economic viability to date came in 2021 from David Humbird, a private engineering process consultant commissioned by the nonprofit Open Philanthropy Project. In a roughly 100-page techno-economic analysis, Humbird laid out a detailed case for why he believed scaled production would remain prohibitively expensive. His central conclusion was that cell culture media—the primary cost driver—could not realistically fall below $1 per liter, making it effectively impossible for total production costs to drop below $16 per kilogram. The analysis projected that, at scale, media costs would likely be around $6.50 per liter, and in the most optimistic scenario, $2.50 per liter—with total production costs starting at no less than $21 per kilogram.
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Less than four years after the publication of the Humbird TEA and its surrounding media coverage, multiple companies are producing cell mass using culture media that costs $1 per liter or less—sharply undercutting Humbird’s projected minimum of $2.50 per liter. Several companies have achieved media costs below $0.50 per liter, placing current performance at 10 to 30 times lower than what the TEA deemed possible, even in its most optimistic scenarios.
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The combination of lower media costs and higher cell densities has translated into dramatically reduced production costs. Several cultured meat companies are now producing cell mass at $10 to $15 per kilogram—already 30 to 50 percent below the TEA’s projected minimum of $21 per kilogram. A handful of leading-edge firms have gone further, achieving costs below $10 per kilogram.
The article describes several strategies used to reduce costs. It still seems pretty expensive, but setting limits on potential cost reductions seems hard.
These strategies definitely go a long way to make it viable, but I think the biggest factor will be that standard meat will continue to get more and more expensive until the prices converge....
These strategies definitely go a long way to make it viable, but I think the biggest factor will be that standard meat will continue to get more and more expensive until the prices converge. Standard grocery store prices for beef have convinced me to simply stop buying it.
Serum-free media is gaining traction as well, which could make the process more predictable, and hence cheaper. Yup consumers want something cheap and tasty, (and not gross or scary) not...
Serum-free media is gaining traction as well, which could make the process more predictable, and hence cheaper.
many of today’s startups are developing more pragmatic processes designed to minimize cost, complexity, and risk—while still delivering meaningful product value.
Yup consumers want something cheap and tasty, (and not gross or scary) not necessarily replicating the full experience of say, Wagyu or wild caught tuna. That sounds like a good direction
I too think cost will be the dominating factor in the success or failure of lab meat. If the producers try to pass the cost of development onto consumers, as happens with many progressive...
I too think cost will be the dominating factor in the success or failure of lab meat.
If the producers try to pass the cost of development onto consumers, as happens with many progressive products, lab meat will not make it. That or it is priced higher because there is less of it.
OTOH, my guess is that if lab meat is cheaper than animal products, and "close enough" for consumers lab meat will succeed -- especially with greedflation meat prices.
From the article:
...
...
The article describes several strategies used to reduce costs. It still seems pretty expensive, but setting limits on potential cost reductions seems hard.
These strategies definitely go a long way to make it viable, but I think the biggest factor will be that standard meat will continue to get more and more expensive until the prices converge. Standard grocery store prices for beef have convinced me to simply stop buying it.
Serum-free media is gaining traction as well, which could make the process more predictable, and hence cheaper.
Yup consumers want something cheap and tasty, (and not gross or scary) not necessarily replicating the full experience of say, Wagyu or wild caught tuna. That sounds like a good direction
I too think cost will be the dominating factor in the success or failure of lab meat.
If the producers try to pass the cost of development onto consumers, as happens with many progressive products, lab meat will not make it. That or it is priced higher because there is less of it.
OTOH, my guess is that if lab meat is cheaper than animal products, and "close enough" for consumers lab meat will succeed -- especially with greedflation meat prices.