I personally believe that Biden's handling of international affairs is severely underrated. Under his leadership, the United States has strengthened its alliances in Europe and Asia against Russia...
I personally believe that Biden's handling of international affairs is severely underrated. Under his leadership, the United States has strengthened its alliances in Europe and Asia against Russia and China.
His administration deftly handled the Russian-Ukrainian War: organizing the Western military aid response, reinvigorating and growing NATO, defending Western interests without provoking nuclear war, restoring credibility and prestige to American intelligence — and all quite economically too.
His administration has also deftly handled China by limiting tech investment while cultivating an alliance of Asian countries eager for a counterweight to China's growing regional power and aggression. This has culminated in APEC 2023: China dropped its "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy and Xi Jinping has come to San Francisco with tail between his legs, hoping to court western investment again.
The Israel-Hamas War is a difficult challenge. At stake is the United States' moral and geopolitical leadership. Failure to advocate for human rights for Palestinians would cost the US moral credibility. Failure to support Israel militarily would cost the US geopolitical credibility. Signs of hesitation to support a core ally can have profound implications for regional and global security, with the possibility of igniting larger wars.
I think that people often forget that there are timelines where millions or even billions die.
I saw a tweet from Tom Nicholas (whose YouTube channel I recommend) that's been rattling around in my head ever since: it looks like 2024 is shaping up to be another "blame the voters" year for...
The erosion for Biden is most pronounced among Democrats, a majority of whom believe Israel has gone too far in its military action in Gaza, and among voters ages 18 to 34, with a whopping 70% of them disapproving of Biden’s handling of the war.
When nominally centre-left parties lose voters to the right, they publicly prostrate themselves and embark on big “listening exercises”.
When they lose voters to the left, they blame the voters.
Either left-wing voters are few and inconsequential enough that they don’t impact elections and can be ignored.
Or they’re important enough that the outcome of elections rest on them and they need to be appealed to with policy.
You can’t have both.
it looks like 2024 is shaping up to be another "blame the voters" year for the Democrats.
2020: look, we know Biden's not your first choice, but this is the most important election in our lifetime, and we can't allow Trump to win. you need to hold your nose and vote for him anyway, and then after the election you can work on pushing him farther to the left.
2021-2023: why are you criticizing Biden and trying to push him to the left? you're just weakening his chances at re-election. do you want Trump to win?
2024: look, we know Biden's not your first choice, but this is the most important election in our lifetime, and we can't allow Trump to win. you need to hold your nose and vote for him anyway...
There is no more space left for the "lesser of two evils". We've all been told to vote that way for decades, as if there would come a time when it would stop the slow backslide. Well, we're at the...
Exemplary
There is no more space left for the "lesser of two evils". We've all been told to vote that way for decades, as if there would come a time when it would stop the slow backslide.
Well, we're at the literal bottom of the hill now, thanks to people repeatedly convincing everyone to vote for corporate losers. The strategy of voting for the lesser of two evils has failed. Utterly.
It does not matter if Biden wins or not, because it literally has no meaningful delaying effect on the encroachment of fascism at this point, because Biden is not a fighter, he's a conservative. He's not going to help "win the larger fight" because he's a complete doddering fool unfit for the office, he has no concept of what the larger fight even is.
Democracy has failed due to democratic voters buying the lies that progressives are "the enemy of good enough", a piece of far right-wing propaganda.
Voting for people like Biden is giving up. It's a capitulation to the right-wing political frame of reference, which is why it has brought us to this state of critical failure in our institutions....
Voting for people like Biden is giving up. It's a capitulation to the right-wing political frame of reference, which is why it has brought us to this state of critical failure in our institutions. Yes, it brought us here slightly slower than voting for full on fascism immediately. Big whoop.
Biden isn't evil in the way Trump is evil (though I would say aligning yourself with someone who describes bombing hospitals full of civilians as collateral damage to be pretty evil), but he is a useful idiot and that's nearly as bad in a practical sense.
A vote for Biden over a republican is like opting to drink a slightly less potent deadly poison. Like, it's a choice that has been forced on all of us by the DNC and the media apparatus that supports them, and when we say "Maybe we shouldn't drink poison at all. Here's a drink that has no poison, even some health benefits." all we get is "Can't let perfect be the enemy of good. Drink your poison."
For the interests of a Tildes discussion thread, you should provide specifics for your assertions, otherwise this just comes off as airing out feelings and frustrations. You assert that full-on...
For the interests of a Tildes discussion thread, you should provide specifics for your assertions, otherwise this just comes off as airing out feelings and frustrations.
You assert that full-on fascism is imminent. Why might this be so?
You use poison as an analogy. If voting for a Democrat is a lesser poison, and the point of poison is to kill, would you assert that conditions were better at some point in the past? And if so, when, why, and for whom?
Bear in mind that life is now profoundly better, even if still well short of ideal, for women, gay and trans folks, disabled, and non-white people.
My limited grasp of US history has me thinking that the US has previously been in situations where things were moving forward faster, but not that the US was ever farther forward than it is today....
If voting for a Democrat is a lesser poison, and the point of poison is to kill, would you assert that conditions were better at some point in the past? And if so, when, why, and for whom?
My limited grasp of US history has me thinking that the US has previously been in situations where things were moving forward faster, but not that the US was ever farther forward than it is today. Maybe the eras immediately pre- and post- WW2 come to mind. Notably, the pre-ww2 era (new deal) is a recovery from an at the time unprecedented economic crisis. And post-WW2 is your usual post-war recovery.
Those are both recoveries from massive economic disruptions. It's illusory to think that rate of progress was sustainable.
But no, IMO it was never better. At least not if you look at the general population. Even for the privileged, it's hard to argue that.
The US isn't backsliding, at least not under democratic government. I know it can feel that way. Without meaning to sound dismissive, and setting aside one singular issue: Compare Jan 6th 2021 to Oct 6th 2023. Really no progress at all under the Biden administration? Really just a slower decline into fascism?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025 I've linked the wiki as a general overview, but you can find reporting on this from many major news sources. The GOP has already explicitly spelled out...
I've linked the wiki as a general overview, but you can find reporting on this from many major news sources. The GOP has already explicitly spelled out their intent to deal the killing blow to our democratic institutions when they next get elected, in a similar way to how they've captured the courts.
Established in 2022, the project seeks to recruit tens of thousands of conservatives to Washington, D.C. to replace existing federal civil service workers it characterizes as the "deep state," to further the objectives of the next Republican president.[3] Participants in the project cannot promote a specific presidential candidate, but many have close ties to Donald Trump.[4] The plan would perform a swift takeover of the entire executive branch under a maximalist version of the unitary executive theory — a theory proposing the president of the United States has absolute power of the executive branch — upon inauguration.[5]
And this is not just a Trump thing, this is backed by the Heritage Foundation, this is the leading mainstream GOP strategy. To replace tens of thousands of government employees at every level with loyalists, so that next time there's a Jan 6 event there are no pesky career bureaucrats to gum up the works.
They started interviewing people for this take over at least a year ago, including the candidates social media as part of the interview to make sure they're loyal. This wouldn't be a thing half way through the term, this would be day one.
And what do you see the Biden and the Democratic establishment doing in the midst of this gathering threat of hostile take over? Cracking down on speech, malaigning anti-war demonstrators as "pro-terrorist" and "anti-semitic" for suggesting that letting new borns in Gaza suffocate in their incubators is unacceptable, misrepresenting them as violent despite the only violence being committed by the police who showed up and pepper sprayed everyone. We see them undermining progressive members even if it means a republican takes their vacated seat. all for supporting the basic humanity of Palestinians.
You see them "rallying together" at a literal pro-war march, up on stage with right-wing extremists like Mike Johnson and antiseimitic nutjob evangelicals like John Hagee chanting for the continued slaughter of Palestinian civilians.
People want to talk about being practical -- Biden is rapidly losing support among Arab American groups in key swing states that he barely squeaked by on in 2020. He's screwing himself and the party over by hyper-fixating on catering to AIPAC donors in support of some foreign right-wing government.
I'm going to vote for Biden, if for no other reason than to give myself more time to pack my bags, but to have people to who aren't paying attention tell me to be "excited" to vote for someone like Biden is absurd to a degree for which I simply have no words.
The fact that he's trailing an indicted conman tells you everything you need to know about the viability of his political philosophy and of the neoliberal strategy. If you need to prop up extremists as your opposition to make your own candidates look palatable, perhaps that indicates it's time to move to the left, towards the actual policy that polls well, instead of continuing to double down.
Has it really failed? I'd say that the strategy for the lessor of two evils has succeeded. Wildly. Life in countries with functional democracies — the United States, Canada, Germany, France, UK,...
Has it really failed? I'd say that the strategy for the lessor of two evils has succeeded. Wildly.
Life in countries with functional democracies — the United States, Canada, Germany, France, UK, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Spain, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Australia — is objectively way, way better than in countries without in every measure: economy, health, education, culture, human rights.
The most successful feature of democracy is how it balances tension between all segments of society, yielding a mediocre but workable center that itself yields gradual progress without catastrophic backsliding (like China's Great Leap Forward), with a nonviolent paradigm of power that places money and influence at its center (instead of violence).
We're backsliding. You're mistaking living on borrowed time with "wild success". The neoliberal experiment has failed. It's conservativism that simply goes backwards slower. Full on fascism is now...
We're backsliding. You're mistaking living on borrowed time with "wild success".
The neoliberal experiment has failed. It's conservativism that simply goes backwards slower. Full on fascism is now literally a single election away, thanks to useful idiots in the DNC who think they can pad their pockets and hold the needs of our democracy at arms length for a little longer.
We're backsliding cause Republicans support their politicians more. Republicans have learned that they need to show up, each and every election, even if their guy has done some stuff they hate....
We're backsliding cause Republicans support their politicians more. Republicans have learned that they need to show up, each and every election, even if their guy has done some stuff they hate. They recognize that the time for second-guessing is in the primary, but after that they need to rally around their candidate. It's the old saying; Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line.
Republicans have achieved what they have precisely because they have been patient and willing to keep pushing each and every election. Meanwhile, Democrats waffle and tie themselves into knots, pining for the perfect candidate.
This isn't just about voters. The Republican party has become very good at handing together as a single mass to get things done. You don't see that kind of coordination on the Democratic side, the...
This isn't just about voters. The Republican party has become very good at handing together as a single mass to get things done. You don't see that kind of coordination on the Democratic side, the voting is almost always split.
This is just called democracy. Did you expect to have a country of 350+ Million people just spontaneously agree on everything without needing to negotiate and compromise with each other? You...
There is no more space left for the "lesser of two evils".
This is just called democracy. Did you expect to have a country of 350+ Million people just spontaneously agree on everything without needing to negotiate and compromise with each other?
You haven't been told to vote this way for "decades." This is literally what voting is. That's how the whole thing works.
To be a little fair I think various policies have made things worse than they normally would be. The push away from allowing the average person to be involved easily in local elections/primaries...
To be a little fair I think various policies have made things worse than they normally would be. The push away from allowing the average person to be involved easily in local elections/primaries and things like citizen's united are certainly not helping.
Still, a lot of the comments here just remind me of why these things are often self destructive. I do not like biden. I do not like being forced to "vote the lesser of two evils". I don't think voting trump or letting trump in fixes anything though, and being willing to blow the whole thing up over an extremely complicated issue is just so all or nothing and has never worked.
Look, Biden's actually done some stuff I like (the infrastructure bill and his continued work to try and push through some variety of student loan forgiveness). But with regards to Israel, which...
you have the most progressive president that is possible in this political climate
Look, Biden's actually done some stuff I like (the infrastructure bill and his continued work to try and push through some variety of student loan forgiveness). But with regards to Israel, which the topic directly cites as contributing to his low approval rating atm, he's less progressive than fucking Bush and Reagan were. If that's the most progressive president possible in this political climate, the US is fucking doomed.
The fate of the Israel/Palestine conflict doesn't have that much to do with the US' fate. Geopolitically the region, in general, will have less and less of an impact on global affairs more...
The fate of the Israel/Palestine conflict doesn't have that much to do with the US' fate. Geopolitically the region, in general, will have less and less of an impact on global affairs more broadly. Over the longer term, I actually see this shaking out better as the political influence of Netanyahu's coalition is in the gutter and the centrist and progressive coalitions can finally get their shit together enough to oust him and his cadre of brownshirts.
The Centrists in Israel are peace-and-security hardliners still but, unlike the Likudniks, actually do take the "peace" part seriously and generally favor pulling back in the West Bank and tamping down the provocations by settlers there. At this very moment peace seems far away, but we still need to see what things settle into now that the previously untenable status quo has broken down.
Foreign policy is always tough to do democratically because voters tend to think about their sentiments RIGHT NOW at this snapshot in time. But instances like this conflict will require taking a very patient, strategic view.
Personally I am pretty satisfied with Biden getting the IRA passed. It does a fair amount of good stuff for the climate, including a bunch of stuff I hadn't really thought about. I understand that...
Personally I am pretty satisfied with Biden getting the IRA passed. It does a fair amount of good stuff for the climate, including a bunch of stuff I hadn't really thought about.
I understand that lots of people feel that the US isn't doing enough, but I don't really know if there is any coherent plan for what enough really involves. The only alternate plan I've seen laid out was that Green New Deal bill, but that was in my opinion not substantive, and in the 5 years since then it doesn't seem like any progress has been made on that front.
So the fact that the Biden administration is making some moves to address these things is the best I could hope for. Maybe when some smart people figure out better ideas I'll support candidates that are proposing those plans, but at the moment the Democrat coalition seems like it's done the best job of putting something together.
I'm not going to engage with someone who talks down to me this condescendingly. in general, I think that lectures and scolding are a poor way to turn out voters and win elections. have a nice day.
Seriously, are you even paying attention?
I'm not going to engage with someone who talks down to me this condescendingly.
in general, I think that lectures and scolding are a poor way to turn out voters and win elections.
... ... I really, really hope Biden loses the nomination.
President Joe Biden’s approval rating has declined to the lowest level of his presidency — 40% — as strong majorities of all voters disapprove of his handling of foreign policy and the Israel-Hamas war, according to the latest national NBC News poll.
...
The erosion for Biden is most pronounced among Democrats, a majority of whom believe Israel has gone too far in its military action in Gaza, and among voters ages 18 to 34, with a whopping 70% of them disapproving of Biden’s handling of the war.
...
All of this is shaping a general election that’s still some 350 days away. Biden trails Donald Trump for the first time in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup in the NBC News poll, though the deficit falls well within the survey’s margin of error.
It would be insane for the Democrats to switch candidates at this point, if for nothing else than it would be crazy to give up an incumbency advantage. It would be tantamount to handing the...
It would be insane for the Democrats to switch candidates at this point, if for nothing else than it would be crazy to give up an incumbency advantage. It would be tantamount to handing the election to the Republicans.
Polling this far out is not reliable. Biden hasn't even really started campaigning yet, which is the smart thing to do while the Republican primary infighting is still going on. And just look at recent election results, Democrats keep notching up victories and Trump-backed Republicans keep losing.
And even if Biden is unpopular, I don't think it'll matter. 2024 is going to be about only one issue: abortion. The last two years have shown that's an issue Democrats win on by a lot, and there are a lot of people who aren't crazy about Biden but will absolutely show up to vote for him when they're worried Trump will ban abortion nationwide.
I'm not thinking strategy when I say "I hope Biden loses the nomination," I'm thinking that I want him to lose the nomination. His attitude toward the Israel-Palestine conflict has been...
I'm not thinking strategy when I say "I hope Biden loses the nomination," I'm thinking that I want him to lose the nomination. His attitude toward the Israel-Palestine conflict has been disgusting, and I will not vote for him unless he changes his stance dramatically.
If the Democrats don't want to lose to the Republicans, maybe they should stop enabling genocide.
The problem is that the genocide would only increase if Biden loses to a Republican. All of the GOP would take a far more hands off approach to Israel. Biden is at least trying to delicately...
The problem is that the genocide would only increase if Biden loses to a Republican. All of the GOP would take a far more hands off approach to Israel. Biden is at least trying to delicately balance this whole crisis to avoid everything falling like a house of cards.
I feel too far in the other direction would also be more dire than the status quo: If international pressure was the way progressive public discourse seems to be going, it would involve more or...
I feel too far in the other direction would also be more dire than the status quo: If international pressure was the way progressive public discourse seems to be going, it would involve more or less rejecting Israel's right to defend itself and/or to exist. Which would IMO be seen within Israel as a signal that nothing they can do short of letting themselves be genocided or driven from their land will satisfy their allies, ergo they have no allies.
And I believe that Israel is currently holding back and trying to fight Hamas with at least some regard for civilian casualties precisely because of their allies. Remove the allies from the equation, and you lose the leverage. Bye bye any hope of Israel diverting even the most symbolic of resources to humanitarian efforts. I also don't think Israel without allies is capable (logistically and politically) of pacifying Gaza sustainably, while pressure and support from allies can help greatly here. If anything resembling peace is to ultimately come of this slaughter, Israel needs allies. Not necessarily to deliver guns, but to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza and steer Israel into as humane a way of fighting this conflict as is possible. If arms deliveries are the price to make Israel receptive to diplomatic steering, so be it.
Another possible escalation of the West rescinding support of Israel to a larger degree than they currently are is that we lose deterrence of other actors (in particular Iran and its proxies). Currently, Iran must be convinced that directly intervening against Israel will end badly for them. If that ever changes, I don't think we're going to enjoy that particular timeline. What we're seeing right now in Gaza is petty stuff by comparison.
What Biden is doing appears to me to be an exercise in realpolitik and balancing competing interests.
This is the unfortunate truth. It's also why I've come to dislike the BDS movement: its supporters have good intentions, but it's an incredibly naive, Trumpist line of thought, that sanctioning...
This is the unfortunate truth. It's also why I've come to dislike the BDS movement: its supporters have good intentions, but it's an incredibly naive, Trumpist line of thought, that sanctioning Israel would magically cause them to bend the knee. Sanctions don't really work (source), despite what some officials would lead you to believe, and if the US embraced the BDS movement as punishment, what would Israel do? Well, they already export quite a bit to Russia and China, so I'm sure at least one of them would be more than happy to take our place as Israel's #1 ally. Russia may be Iran's ally, of which Hamas is a proxy, but it certainly wouldn't be the first time they've played both sides of a middle east conflict.
If foreign policy was as simple as "sanction a country and it will magically fall in line with western demands," this wouldn't be an issue, Putin would have never occupied the Crimea (much less launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine), the Uyghurs wouldn't be in concentration camps, and Yemen wouldn't be torn apart by a brutal civil war.
Foreign diplomacy is a balancing act, pulling on various levers of power to try and achieve the best possible outcomes, but being very mindful of how easy it can be to pull too hard and break them. The more I've learned about geopolitics, the more I've come to realize that it's a shit sandwich no matter how you slice it, but if you're careful, you can at least scrape most of the shit off before eating it.
Edit: added source for the dubious efficacy of the US sanctions regime.
Preach. I'm going to go out on a limb and say no one except the most unsavory of the western political sphere are actually enjoying what Israel is doing when they defend them. They know it's a...
Foreign diplomacy is a balancing act, pulling on various levers of power to try and achieve the best possible outcomes, but being very mindful of how easy it can be to pull too hard and snap them off. The more I've learned about geopolitics, the more I've come to realize that it's a shit sandwich no matter how you slice it, but if you're careful, you can at least scrape most of the shit off before eating it.
Preach. I'm going to go out on a limb and say no one except the most unsavory of the western political sphere are actually enjoying what Israel is doing when they defend them. They know it's a blood bath and they hate every second of it. They just think that they can scrape more shit off long-term if they flip the sandwich first. It's still a shit sandwich. And this isn't even them declaring some parts to be non-shit, but instead chocolate spread. It's different assumptions about how best to remove clearly identified shit from a sandwich. Leaving the metaphor, it's differing beliefs about what effects our actions will have on violence in the middle east.
With all due respect, this comment really seems to come from a place of privilege. Yes, Biden isn't perfect. yes, his one-sided handling of Israel is abominable. But you don't get to choose the...
With all due respect, this comment really seems to come from a place of privilege. Yes, Biden isn't perfect. yes, his one-sided handling of Israel is abominable.
But you don't get to choose the perfect candidate in a first-past-the-post election system. Every candidate is going to have to be a compromise candidate. Every candidate you vote for, at least with any hope of winning, is going to have some things you love, and some you hate.
I say your comment seems privileged, because the minority groups the Republican party seeks to destroy and people whose rights they seek to take away do not have the luxury of purity tests. Purity tests on the left got us Trump in 2016. Hillary had a few things people on the left rightfully objected to, so some stayed home. And then Trump appointed 3 conservative justices to the court, and half the population lost their reproductive rights.
You're worried about Biden not doing enough to help the Palestinians, a people in a foreign land. But in your own country, the Republicans are openly planning the extrajudicial arrest, imprisonment, and deportation of millions of people. They outright say in their 2025 plan that they intend to deport millions and millions of immigrants without going through proper immigration courts. They're planning a massive ethnic cleansing on your own soil, but apparently Biden isn't doing a good job being the world's policeman, so we can ignore that.
And please, save me the moral purity. It's easy to lazily say, "well, I'm not voting for either of them. Me staying home isn't endorsing a monster, I'm just not endorsing both of them." But that's a myopic view that completely ignores the system we live in. ALL candidates are compromise candidates. And by not voting, you are effectively endorsing whoever the winner happens to be. Ultimately, when you vote, you are not endorsing the candidate. You are not saying the candidate and you share all beliefs. Voting is just a way of saying you prefer one candidate over another.
I promise you, if the Republicans win we will not just be enabling the massacre of Palestinian citizens, we will be active participants. Trump will send American soldiers in day one with the...
I promise you, if the Republicans win we will not just be enabling the massacre of Palestinian citizens, we will be active participants. Trump will send American soldiers in day one with the instructions to do whatever Netanyahu wants. And many, many more innocents will die than would've if Biden wins.
I am not exaggerating when I say this: if you cannot bring yourself to vote for Biden over Trump next November, you will be condoning increased violence against Palestine.
I don't think it's correct to place one issue as the number 1 most important issue. There are legitimate reasons for voting for Trump, and your vote is not necessarily a mandate for increased...
I don't think it's correct to place one issue as the number 1 most important issue. There are legitimate reasons for voting for Trump, and your vote is not necessarily a mandate for increased violence. That's a very black and white way of seeing things.
I personally don't agree, but I suppose I have to respect your opinion to not just completely shut down conversation. Trump has shown himself to be a populist liar, who will say anything you want...
There are legitimate reasons for voting for Trump
I personally don't agree, but I suppose I have to respect your opinion to not just completely shut down conversation. Trump has shown himself to be a populist liar, who will say anything you want to hear to get your vote. The only common thread of his policy has been that it financially benefits him, his family, or whoever his top donator is at that moment. I don't honestly know what else to say to anyone who fails to see that at this point. So, with this in mind, what legitimate reason is there for voting for him at this point?
Voting for a candidate is a matrix of decisions on various issues, yes, and in that way there are always shades of grey. But on individual issues, you can compare what candidates say and it's not...
Voting for a candidate is a matrix of decisions on various issues, yes, and in that way there are always shades of grey. But on individual issues, you can compare what candidates say and it's not hard to see which stance is more hawk-ish. Biden's administration negotiated a five-day ceasefire. Trump has praised Hezbollah, said we should stand back and "let it play out", and not to mention while President officially recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital - a very pro-Netanyahu move.
I think on this particular issue, it is very black and white for which candidate would act towards peaceful interceding, and which candidate is not concerned by violence against Palestine. I don't think it's hard to extrapolate how those two differing stances would affect the lives of innocent Palestinians. And if you don't vote for Biden, regardless of the reason, you are signaling you are unconcerned with heightened violence against Palestinians because clearly you are unconcerned by the possibility of Trump's win and his attitude towards Palestine.
If you have contrasting evidence, I welcome its discussion.
Is there a democratic candidate with a less disgusting stance? The Republican party stance has been simply pro-Isael from the beginning. If you recall Trump appointed Kushner to "solve the...
Is there a democratic candidate with a less disgusting stance? The Republican party stance has been simply pro-Isael from the beginning. If you recall Trump appointed Kushner to "solve the problem" and said it would be done in a year. Kushner, who had Netanyahu sleep at his parents house when he was a kid.
The only safe stance to hold on this conflict is that the fighting and killings should stop. Any other policy will anger someone, and even seems to anger those of us who honestly have no place commenting on the matter.
Are you really going to abstain for voting against someone with an even worse track record on this specific issue because you're not happy with Biden's policy?
If the recent past is any indication, there will be successive, numerous crises between now and the general election that will demand the public's attention over and over. The plight of the...
If the recent past is any indication, there will be successive, numerous crises between now and the general election that will demand the public's attention over and over. The plight of the Palestinian people will again be a distant memory, just as they have been for the past 70+ years.
In the present moment, it's hard to tell what crises will be the focus of the public's attention more than a year from now. In my personal opinion, whatever they are, they will likely be easier wins for Biden to manage than this one has been.
I'll say that the narrative of how the Biden admin handled the crisis is also subject to change substantially after the dust settles. I can't imagine Trump or Obama having handled it any better.
I'll say that the narrative of how the Biden admin handled the crisis is also subject to change substantially after the dust settles. I can't imagine Trump or Obama having handled it any better.
In my non-expert opinion, the Biden administration is partially responsible for the war not spilling into Lebanon in any truly catastrophic manner. The amount of restraint the US is displaying as...
In my non-expert opinion, the Biden administration is partially responsible for the war not spilling into Lebanon in any truly catastrophic manner. The amount of restraint the US is displaying as Iranian proxies attack US soldiers actively goading for escalation is remarkable.
I can't imagine either of the two prior administratives threading the needle in this way. The last for obvious reasons, and the Obama admin because of Obama's antagonistic relationship with Bibi.
The general polls between Biden and Trump actually overestimate Biden's chances at winning the presidency. He's doing even worse in almost all the battleground states.
The general polls between Biden and Trump actually overestimate Biden's chances at winning the presidency. He's doing even worse in almost all the battleground states.
This sounds interesting. Awful, but interesting. Where have you been reading this? Do you have a particular survey or something this claim is based on?
This sounds interesting. Awful, but interesting. Where have you been reading this? Do you have a particular survey or something this claim is based on?
I suppose things might change but NYT/Siena did a poll: https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/biden-trails-trump-key-battleground-states-polls-find-rcna123768
I think you completely misinterpreted what @tealblue is saying. A general poll is just a percentage of likely votes across the whole country, but Biden is performing worse (less percentage of...
I think you completely misinterpreted what @tealblue is saying. A general poll is just a percentage of likely votes across the whole country, but Biden is performing worse (less percentage of votes than his nation-wide percentage of votes) where the votes actually matter, in battleground states. So if Biden is head-to-head in a general election poll nationwide (50-50), but he is down ten points across battleground states (arizona, nevade, etc. 45-55), that is really bad news.
There was a lot of discussion in the 538 subreddit over this. The fact that Wisconsin was the only swing state going for Biden caused a lot of people to be skeptical of it, as it had a lower...
There was a lot of discussion in the 538 subreddit over this. The fact that Wisconsin was the only swing state going for Biden caused a lot of people to be skeptical of it, as it had a lower margin toward Biden in 2020 than Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada.
I personally believe that Biden's handling of international affairs is severely underrated. Under his leadership, the United States has strengthened its alliances in Europe and Asia against Russia and China.
His administration deftly handled the Russian-Ukrainian War: organizing the Western military aid response, reinvigorating and growing NATO, defending Western interests without provoking nuclear war, restoring credibility and prestige to American intelligence — and all quite economically too.
His administration has also deftly handled China by limiting tech investment while cultivating an alliance of Asian countries eager for a counterweight to China's growing regional power and aggression. This has culminated in APEC 2023: China dropped its "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy and Xi Jinping has come to San Francisco with tail between his legs, hoping to court western investment again.
The Israel-Hamas War is a difficult challenge. At stake is the United States' moral and geopolitical leadership. Failure to advocate for human rights for Palestinians would cost the US moral credibility. Failure to support Israel militarily would cost the US geopolitical credibility. Signs of hesitation to support a core ally can have profound implications for regional and global security, with the possibility of igniting larger wars.
I think that people often forget that there are timelines where millions or even billions die.
I saw a tweet from Tom Nicholas (whose YouTube channel I recommend) that's been rattling around in my head ever since:
it looks like 2024 is shaping up to be another "blame the voters" year for the Democrats.
2020: look, we know Biden's not your first choice, but this is the most important election in our lifetime, and we can't allow Trump to win. you need to hold your nose and vote for him anyway, and then after the election you can work on pushing him farther to the left.
2021-2023: why are you criticizing Biden and trying to push him to the left? you're just weakening his chances at re-election. do you want Trump to win?
2024: look, we know Biden's not your first choice, but this is the most important election in our lifetime, and we can't allow Trump to win. you need to hold your nose and vote for him anyway...
There is no more space left for the "lesser of two evils". We've all been told to vote that way for decades, as if there would come a time when it would stop the slow backslide.
Well, we're at the literal bottom of the hill now, thanks to people repeatedly convincing everyone to vote for corporate losers. The strategy of voting for the lesser of two evils has failed. Utterly.
It does not matter if Biden wins or not, because it literally has no meaningful delaying effect on the encroachment of fascism at this point, because Biden is not a fighter, he's a conservative. He's not going to help "win the larger fight" because he's a complete doddering fool unfit for the office, he has no concept of what the larger fight even is.
Democracy has failed due to democratic voters buying the lies that progressives are "the enemy of good enough", a piece of far right-wing propaganda.
Voting for people like Biden is giving up. It's a capitulation to the right-wing political frame of reference, which is why it has brought us to this state of critical failure in our institutions. Yes, it brought us here slightly slower than voting for full on fascism immediately. Big whoop.
Biden isn't evil in the way Trump is evil (though I would say aligning yourself with someone who describes bombing hospitals full of civilians as collateral damage to be pretty evil), but he is a useful idiot and that's nearly as bad in a practical sense.
A vote for Biden over a republican is like opting to drink a slightly less potent deadly poison. Like, it's a choice that has been forced on all of us by the DNC and the media apparatus that supports them, and when we say "Maybe we shouldn't drink poison at all. Here's a drink that has no poison, even some health benefits." all we get is "Can't let perfect be the enemy of good. Drink your poison."
It's bullshit.
For the interests of a Tildes discussion thread, you should provide specifics for your assertions, otherwise this just comes off as airing out feelings and frustrations.
You assert that full-on fascism is imminent. Why might this be so?
You use poison as an analogy. If voting for a Democrat is a lesser poison, and the point of poison is to kill, would you assert that conditions were better at some point in the past? And if so, when, why, and for whom?
Bear in mind that life is now profoundly better, even if still well short of ideal, for women, gay and trans folks, disabled, and non-white people.
My limited grasp of US history has me thinking that the US has previously been in situations where things were moving forward faster, but not that the US was ever farther forward than it is today. Maybe the eras immediately pre- and post- WW2 come to mind. Notably, the pre-ww2 era (new deal) is a recovery from an at the time unprecedented economic crisis. And post-WW2 is your usual post-war recovery.
Those are both recoveries from massive economic disruptions. It's illusory to think that rate of progress was sustainable.
But no, IMO it was never better. At least not if you look at the general population. Even for the privileged, it's hard to argue that.
The US isn't backsliding, at least not under democratic government. I know it can feel that way. Without meaning to sound dismissive, and setting aside one singular issue: Compare Jan 6th 2021 to Oct 6th 2023. Really no progress at all under the Biden administration? Really just a slower decline into fascism?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025
I've linked the wiki as a general overview, but you can find reporting on this from many major news sources. The GOP has already explicitly spelled out their intent to deal the killing blow to our democratic institutions when they next get elected, in a similar way to how they've captured the courts.
And this is not just a Trump thing, this is backed by the Heritage Foundation, this is the leading mainstream GOP strategy. To replace tens of thousands of government employees at every level with loyalists, so that next time there's a Jan 6 event there are no pesky career bureaucrats to gum up the works.
They started interviewing people for this take over at least a year ago, including the candidates social media as part of the interview to make sure they're loyal. This wouldn't be a thing half way through the term, this would be day one.
And what do you see the Biden and the Democratic establishment doing in the midst of this gathering threat of hostile take over? Cracking down on speech, malaigning anti-war demonstrators as "pro-terrorist" and "anti-semitic" for suggesting that letting new borns in Gaza suffocate in their incubators is unacceptable, misrepresenting them as violent despite the only violence being committed by the police who showed up and pepper sprayed everyone. We see them undermining progressive members even if it means a republican takes their vacated seat. all for supporting the basic humanity of Palestinians.
You see them "rallying together" at a literal pro-war march, up on stage with right-wing extremists like Mike Johnson and antiseimitic nutjob evangelicals like John Hagee chanting for the continued slaughter of Palestinian civilians.
People want to talk about being practical -- Biden is rapidly losing support among Arab American groups in key swing states that he barely squeaked by on in 2020. He's screwing himself and the party over by hyper-fixating on catering to AIPAC donors in support of some foreign right-wing government.
I'm going to vote for Biden, if for no other reason than to give myself more time to pack my bags, but to have people to who aren't paying attention tell me to be "excited" to vote for someone like Biden is absurd to a degree for which I simply have no words.
The fact that he's trailing an indicted conman tells you everything you need to know about the viability of his political philosophy and of the neoliberal strategy. If you need to prop up extremists as your opposition to make your own candidates look palatable, perhaps that indicates it's time to move to the left, towards the actual policy that polls well, instead of continuing to double down.
Yes, because there is literally no way to engage in US politics other than voting for a specific president.
Has it really failed? I'd say that the strategy for the lessor of two evils has succeeded. Wildly.
Life in countries with functional democracies — the United States, Canada, Germany, France, UK, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Spain, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Australia — is objectively way, way better than in countries without in every measure: economy, health, education, culture, human rights.
The most successful feature of democracy is how it balances tension between all segments of society, yielding a mediocre but workable center that itself yields gradual progress without catastrophic backsliding (like China's Great Leap Forward), with a nonviolent paradigm of power that places money and influence at its center (instead of violence).
We're backsliding. You're mistaking living on borrowed time with "wild success".
The neoliberal experiment has failed. It's conservativism that simply goes backwards slower. Full on fascism is now literally a single election away, thanks to useful idiots in the DNC who think they can pad their pockets and hold the needs of our democracy at arms length for a little longer.
We're backsliding cause Republicans support their politicians more. Republicans have learned that they need to show up, each and every election, even if their guy has done some stuff they hate. They recognize that the time for second-guessing is in the primary, but after that they need to rally around their candidate. It's the old saying; Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line.
Republicans have achieved what they have precisely because they have been patient and willing to keep pushing each and every election. Meanwhile, Democrats waffle and tie themselves into knots, pining for the perfect candidate.
This isn't just about voters. The Republican party has become very good at handing together as a single mass to get things done. You don't see that kind of coordination on the Democratic side, the voting is almost always split.
This is just called democracy. Did you expect to have a country of 350+ Million people just spontaneously agree on everything without needing to negotiate and compromise with each other?
You haven't been told to vote this way for "decades." This is literally what voting is. That's how the whole thing works.
To be a little fair I think various policies have made things worse than they normally would be. The push away from allowing the average person to be involved easily in local elections/primaries and things like citizen's united are certainly not helping.
Still, a lot of the comments here just remind me of why these things are often self destructive. I do not like biden. I do not like being forced to "vote the lesser of two evils". I don't think voting trump or letting trump in fixes anything though, and being willing to blow the whole thing up over an extremely complicated issue is just so all or nothing and has never worked.
Look, Biden's actually done some stuff I like (the infrastructure bill and his continued work to try and push through some variety of student loan forgiveness). But with regards to Israel, which the topic directly cites as contributing to his low approval rating atm, he's less progressive than fucking Bush and Reagan were. If that's the most progressive president possible in this political climate, the US is fucking doomed.
The fate of the Israel/Palestine conflict doesn't have that much to do with the US' fate. Geopolitically the region, in general, will have less and less of an impact on global affairs more broadly. Over the longer term, I actually see this shaking out better as the political influence of Netanyahu's coalition is in the gutter and the centrist and progressive coalitions can finally get their shit together enough to oust him and his cadre of brownshirts.
The Centrists in Israel are peace-and-security hardliners still but, unlike the Likudniks, actually do take the "peace" part seriously and generally favor pulling back in the West Bank and tamping down the provocations by settlers there. At this very moment peace seems far away, but we still need to see what things settle into now that the previously untenable status quo has broken down.
Foreign policy is always tough to do democratically because voters tend to think about their sentiments RIGHT NOW at this snapshot in time. But instances like this conflict will require taking a very patient, strategic view.
Personally I am pretty satisfied with Biden getting the IRA passed. It does a fair amount of good stuff for the climate, including a bunch of stuff I hadn't really thought about.
I understand that lots of people feel that the US isn't doing enough, but I don't really know if there is any coherent plan for what enough really involves. The only alternate plan I've seen laid out was that Green New Deal bill, but that was in my opinion not substantive, and in the 5 years since then it doesn't seem like any progress has been made on that front.
So the fact that the Biden administration is making some moves to address these things is the best I could hope for. Maybe when some smart people figure out better ideas I'll support candidates that are proposing those plans, but at the moment the Democrat coalition seems like it's done the best job of putting something together.
I'm not going to engage with someone who talks down to me this condescendingly.
in general, I think that lectures and scolding are a poor way to turn out voters and win elections.
have a nice day.
This is a very smart point.
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I really, really hope Biden loses the nomination.
It would be insane for the Democrats to switch candidates at this point, if for nothing else than it would be crazy to give up an incumbency advantage. It would be tantamount to handing the election to the Republicans.
Polling this far out is not reliable. Biden hasn't even really started campaigning yet, which is the smart thing to do while the Republican primary infighting is still going on. And just look at recent election results, Democrats keep notching up victories and Trump-backed Republicans keep losing.
And even if Biden is unpopular, I don't think it'll matter. 2024 is going to be about only one issue: abortion. The last two years have shown that's an issue Democrats win on by a lot, and there are a lot of people who aren't crazy about Biden but will absolutely show up to vote for him when they're worried Trump will ban abortion nationwide.
I'm not thinking strategy when I say "I hope Biden loses the nomination," I'm thinking that I want him to lose the nomination. His attitude toward the Israel-Palestine conflict has been disgusting, and I will not vote for him unless he changes his stance dramatically.
If the Democrats don't want to lose to the Republicans, maybe they should stop enabling genocide.
The problem is that the genocide would only increase if Biden loses to a Republican. All of the GOP would take a far more hands off approach to Israel. Biden is at least trying to delicately balance this whole crisis to avoid everything falling like a house of cards.
I feel too far in the other direction would also be more dire than the status quo: If international pressure was the way progressive public discourse seems to be going, it would involve more or less rejecting Israel's right to defend itself and/or to exist. Which would IMO be seen within Israel as a signal that nothing they can do short of letting themselves be genocided or driven from their land will satisfy their allies, ergo they have no allies.
And I believe that Israel is currently holding back and trying to fight Hamas with at least some regard for civilian casualties precisely because of their allies. Remove the allies from the equation, and you lose the leverage. Bye bye any hope of Israel diverting even the most symbolic of resources to humanitarian efforts. I also don't think Israel without allies is capable (logistically and politically) of pacifying Gaza sustainably, while pressure and support from allies can help greatly here. If anything resembling peace is to ultimately come of this slaughter, Israel needs allies. Not necessarily to deliver guns, but to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza and steer Israel into as humane a way of fighting this conflict as is possible. If arms deliveries are the price to make Israel receptive to diplomatic steering, so be it.
Another possible escalation of the West rescinding support of Israel to a larger degree than they currently are is that we lose deterrence of other actors (in particular Iran and its proxies). Currently, Iran must be convinced that directly intervening against Israel will end badly for them. If that ever changes, I don't think we're going to enjoy that particular timeline. What we're seeing right now in Gaza is petty stuff by comparison.
What Biden is doing appears to me to be an exercise in realpolitik and balancing competing interests.
This is the unfortunate truth. It's also why I've come to dislike the BDS movement: its supporters have good intentions, but it's an incredibly naive, Trumpist line of thought, that sanctioning Israel would magically cause them to bend the knee. Sanctions don't really work (source), despite what some officials would lead you to believe, and if the US embraced the BDS movement as punishment, what would Israel do? Well, they already export quite a bit to Russia and China, so I'm sure at least one of them would be more than happy to take our place as Israel's #1 ally. Russia may be Iran's ally, of which Hamas is a proxy, but it certainly wouldn't be the first time they've played both sides of a middle east conflict.
If foreign policy was as simple as "sanction a country and it will magically fall in line with western demands," this wouldn't be an issue, Putin would have never occupied the Crimea (much less launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine), the Uyghurs wouldn't be in concentration camps, and Yemen wouldn't be torn apart by a brutal civil war.
Foreign diplomacy is a balancing act, pulling on various levers of power to try and achieve the best possible outcomes, but being very mindful of how easy it can be to pull too hard and break them. The more I've learned about geopolitics, the more I've come to realize that it's a shit sandwich no matter how you slice it, but if you're careful, you can at least scrape most of the shit off before eating it.
Edit: added source for the dubious efficacy of the US sanctions regime.
Preach. I'm going to go out on a limb and say no one except the most unsavory of the western political sphere are actually enjoying what Israel is doing when they defend them. They know it's a blood bath and they hate every second of it. They just think that they can scrape more shit off long-term if they flip the sandwich first. It's still a shit sandwich. And this isn't even them declaring some parts to be non-shit, but instead chocolate spread. It's different assumptions about how best to remove clearly identified shit from a sandwich. Leaving the metaphor, it's differing beliefs about what effects our actions will have on violence in the middle east.
With all due respect, this comment really seems to come from a place of privilege. Yes, Biden isn't perfect. yes, his one-sided handling of Israel is abominable.
But you don't get to choose the perfect candidate in a first-past-the-post election system. Every candidate is going to have to be a compromise candidate. Every candidate you vote for, at least with any hope of winning, is going to have some things you love, and some you hate.
I say your comment seems privileged, because the minority groups the Republican party seeks to destroy and people whose rights they seek to take away do not have the luxury of purity tests. Purity tests on the left got us Trump in 2016. Hillary had a few things people on the left rightfully objected to, so some stayed home. And then Trump appointed 3 conservative justices to the court, and half the population lost their reproductive rights.
You're worried about Biden not doing enough to help the Palestinians, a people in a foreign land. But in your own country, the Republicans are openly planning the extrajudicial arrest, imprisonment, and deportation of millions of people. They outright say in their 2025 plan that they intend to deport millions and millions of immigrants without going through proper immigration courts. They're planning a massive ethnic cleansing on your own soil, but apparently Biden isn't doing a good job being the world's policeman, so we can ignore that.
And please, save me the moral purity. It's easy to lazily say, "well, I'm not voting for either of them. Me staying home isn't endorsing a monster, I'm just not endorsing both of them." But that's a myopic view that completely ignores the system we live in. ALL candidates are compromise candidates. And by not voting, you are effectively endorsing whoever the winner happens to be. Ultimately, when you vote, you are not endorsing the candidate. You are not saying the candidate and you share all beliefs. Voting is just a way of saying you prefer one candidate over another.
I promise you, if the Republicans win we will not just be enabling the massacre of Palestinian citizens, we will be active participants. Trump will send American soldiers in day one with the instructions to do whatever Netanyahu wants. And many, many more innocents will die than would've if Biden wins.
I am not exaggerating when I say this: if you cannot bring yourself to vote for Biden over Trump next November, you will be condoning increased violence against Palestine.
I don't think it's correct to place one issue as the number 1 most important issue. There are legitimate reasons for voting for Trump, and your vote is not necessarily a mandate for increased violence. That's a very black and white way of seeing things.
I personally don't agree, but I suppose I have to respect your opinion to not just completely shut down conversation. Trump has shown himself to be a populist liar, who will say anything you want to hear to get your vote. The only common thread of his policy has been that it financially benefits him, his family, or whoever his top donator is at that moment. I don't honestly know what else to say to anyone who fails to see that at this point. So, with this in mind, what legitimate reason is there for voting for him at this point?
Voting for a candidate is a matrix of decisions on various issues, yes, and in that way there are always shades of grey. But on individual issues, you can compare what candidates say and it's not hard to see which stance is more hawk-ish. Biden's administration negotiated a five-day ceasefire. Trump has praised Hezbollah, said we should stand back and "let it play out", and not to mention while President officially recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital - a very pro-Netanyahu move.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_recognition_of_Jerusalem_as_capital_of_Israel
I think on this particular issue, it is very black and white for which candidate would act towards peaceful interceding, and which candidate is not concerned by violence against Palestine. I don't think it's hard to extrapolate how those two differing stances would affect the lives of innocent Palestinians. And if you don't vote for Biden, regardless of the reason, you are signaling you are unconcerned with heightened violence against Palestinians because clearly you are unconcerned by the possibility of Trump's win and his attitude towards Palestine.
If you have contrasting evidence, I welcome its discussion.
Is there a democratic candidate with a less disgusting stance? The Republican party stance has been simply pro-Isael from the beginning. If you recall Trump appointed Kushner to "solve the problem" and said it would be done in a year. Kushner, who had Netanyahu sleep at his parents house when he was a kid.
The only safe stance to hold on this conflict is that the fighting and killings should stop. Any other policy will anger someone, and even seems to anger those of us who honestly have no place commenting on the matter.
Are you really going to abstain for voting against someone with an even worse track record on this specific issue because you're not happy with Biden's policy?
Someone with a shot would need to oppose him first. Seems too late for that.
If the recent past is any indication, there will be successive, numerous crises between now and the general election that will demand the public's attention over and over. The plight of the Palestinian people will again be a distant memory, just as they have been for the past 70+ years.
In the present moment, it's hard to tell what crises will be the focus of the public's attention more than a year from now. In my personal opinion, whatever they are, they will likely be easier wins for Biden to manage than this one has been.
I'll say that the narrative of how the Biden admin handled the crisis is also subject to change substantially after the dust settles. I can't imagine Trump or Obama having handled it any better.
In my non-expert opinion, the Biden administration is partially responsible for the war not spilling into Lebanon in any truly catastrophic manner. The amount of restraint the US is displaying as Iranian proxies attack US soldiers actively goading for escalation is remarkable.
I can't imagine either of the two prior administratives threading the needle in this way. The last for obvious reasons, and the Obama admin because of Obama's antagonistic relationship with Bibi.
That absolutely will not happen. Only way now is if he died.
The general polls between Biden and Trump actually overestimate Biden's chances at winning the presidency. He's doing even worse in almost all the battleground states.
This sounds interesting. Awful, but interesting. Where have you been reading this? Do you have a particular survey or something this claim is based on?
I suppose things might change but NYT/Siena did a poll: https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/biden-trails-trump-key-battleground-states-polls-find-rcna123768
So your evidence for the claim that the polls are overestimating Biden’s performance is … another poll.
And that’s persuasive you think?
I think you completely misinterpreted what @tealblue is saying. A general poll is just a percentage of likely votes across the whole country, but Biden is performing worse (less percentage of votes than his nation-wide percentage of votes) where the votes actually matter, in battleground states. So if Biden is head-to-head in a general election poll nationwide (50-50), but he is down ten points across battleground states (arizona, nevade, etc. 45-55), that is really bad news.
There was a lot of discussion in the 538 subreddit over this. The fact that Wisconsin was the only swing state going for Biden caused a lot of people to be skeptical of it, as it had a lower margin toward Biden in 2020 than Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada.