I'm going to carefully dip my toe in here as this is the kind of topic steeped in the sort of politics I don't like provoking on Tildes anymore, however I have some minor experience on the oil...
Exemplary
I'm going to carefully dip my toe in here as this is the kind of topic steeped in the sort of politics I don't like provoking on Tildes anymore, however I have some minor experience on the oil side of this equation both through my own career and that of my father who worked extensively in Venezuela prior to Chavez.
The country within its current borders has more oil than it could ever need, recognized as the largest reserves in the world, and prior to the Bolivarian Revolution was the richest nation in South America. While I have never lived there I have now worked with over a hundred Venezuelan expats and refugees that all speak of what we would call a middle class lifestyle afforded to them by working in the Venezuelan oil industry. My father, who did live and work there (as a Canadian expat) also describes a very different country than what exists today. The oil there is very heavy, similar in viscosity to the Canadian oilsands, and requires a level of know how a technology to extract well beyond that found in other third world countries like the Middle East. Despite this fact, once upon a time, the Venezuelan oil industry, with Venezuelan employees, educated in Venezuela, and Venezuelan technology mixed with international service companies (Schlumberger, Halliburton, Weatherford-Computalog) got it done.
And then came the Bolivarian's.
Since Chavez the ample resources of Venezuela have been ruined. Without getting too technical oilfields can be "ruined" for a number of reasons including over production and improper extraction that damage the producibility of the reservoir. The oil is still there but it becomes increasingly difficult to pull out of the ground due to bad practices. Likewise the knowledge and experience has been chased out of the country as the majority of Venezuelans that could extract these resources have evacuated to either Houston or Alberta to help us produce ours.
Venezuela could steal this region from Guyana and it won't matter. I don't even understand why they would try. They are just going to ruin it. They already have more oil within their borders than this region has and they aren't producing it. Their oil industry is in shambles. They have chased out the education. They have chased out the manufacturing necessary. Invading Guyana will do nothing to change this fact.
If the referendum is even true, it's likely just a populist powerplay using a population in dire straits. The point isn't to solve the problem, the point is to dangle a carrot in front of their...
Venezuela could steal this region from Guyana and it won't matter. I don't even understand why they would try.
If the referendum is even true, it's likely just a populist powerplay using a population in dire straits. The point isn't to solve the problem, the point is to dangle a carrot in front of their faces so they don't realise who the real culprit is and (presumably) unpack ye olde guillotine.
Thank you very much though for your expert insight! I learned something new.
I'm going to carefully dip my toe in here as this is the kind of topic steeped in the sort of politics I don't like provoking on Tildes anymore
That is sad though, I always enjoyed the conversations here and your name and your comments do mean something to me :(
Sounds like it's similar to many other stupid human moves, short term thinking in an attempt to overcome immediate obstacles regardless of long term consequences.
Sounds like it's similar to many other stupid human moves, short term thinking in an attempt to overcome immediate obstacles regardless of long term consequences.
Whenever I read "Venezuelans" and "vote" in the same sentence, I can't help but wonder if the writer is messing with me. From other sources: We're talking about a ruthless dictatorship, where...
Whenever I read "Venezuelans" and "vote" in the same sentence, I can't help but wonder if the writer is messing with me.
The vote concluded with a victory for the 'yes', with more than 95% of votes in favour of the 5 asked questions, according to the National Electoral Council (CNE), which did not provide any voter turnout figures, although they remarked the event collected nearly 10.5 million “votes” out of the 20.7 million venezuelans that were called to vote.
...
The CNE mentioned "10,554,320 votes", without explaining if they correspond to an equal number of voters or if 5 votes were counted per person, corresponding to the number of questions each participant answered. This created controversy: the opposition accused the government of trying to hide a high abstention rate, and remarked 10.5 million "votes" don't equal 10.5 million voters.
...
Henrique Capriles, two times presidential candidate from the opposition, reported in X a number of "2,110,864" voters, each of them with the right to cast up to 5 votes, which, according to him, constitutes a "resounding failure". "It's very difficult to understand these results", said Luis Vicente León, director of the survey institute Datanálisis.
We're talking about a ruthless dictatorship, where "elections" have probably been rigged for over 20 years, opposing candidates have been prosecuted, fled the country and possibly even murdered. There's extreme violence and poverty, a massive shortage of basic goods (including food), and people get routinely killed in the city just to steal their sneakers or whatever phone they're carrying.
Whoever thinks any significant part of the Venezuelan population cares enough about this to actually go out and vote... probably needs a serious reality check.
In this context, referendums and similar nation-wide polls are usually nothing but an attempt to justify whatever atrocities the government has already decided to embark on, or just a smokescreen to create fictional, external "enemies", so people will partially have someone else to blame for the misery they're suffering.
yeah i think saying "Venezuelans vote" rather than "Venezuelan government reports referendum results" is kind of insidious. Even if the government isn't straight up thumbing the scales and lying...
yeah i think saying "Venezuelans vote" rather than "Venezuelan government reports referendum results" is kind of insidious. Even if the government isn't straight up thumbing the scales and lying about the votes, there's no way the turnout isn't abysmally low.
Venezuelans voted by a wide margin Sunday to approve the takeover of an oil-rich region in neighboring Guyana – the latest escalation in a long-running territorial dispute between the two countries, fueled by the recent discovery of vast offshore energy resources.
The area in question, the densely forested Essequibo region, amounts to about two-thirds of Guyana’s national territory and is roughly the size of Florida.
Sunday’s largely symbolic referendum asked voters if they agreed with creating a Venezuelan state in the Essequibo region, providing its population with Venezuelan citizenship and “incorporating that state into the map of Venezuelan territory.”
In a news conference announcing preliminary results from the first tranche of counted votes, the Venezuelan National Electoral Council said voters chose “yes” more than 95% of the time on each of five questions on the ballot.
It is unclear what steps Venezuela’s government would take to enforce its claim, however.
Two-thirds of their territory? Isn't this all but a declaration of war then? No nation on earth would accept losing the majority of its sovereign territory without a fight. The last thing we need...
Two-thirds of their territory? Isn't this all but a declaration of war then? No nation on earth would accept losing the majority of its sovereign territory without a fight. The last thing we need right now is a third major conflict on a third continent.
Population of Guyana: ~ 813,000 Population of Venezuela: ~ 28,800,000 Unless Guyana has some tricks up its sleeve, that's not likely to be a very major conflict.
The last thing we need right now is a third major conflict on a third continent.
Population of Guyana: ~ 813,000
Population of Venezuela: ~ 28,800,000
Unless Guyana has some tricks up its sleeve, that's not likely to be a very major conflict.
There’s also the fact that the region claimed is remote, with no real infrastructure to speak of. All Venezuelan military equipment and personnel would have to be hauled in by air, or possibly...
There’s also the fact that the region claimed is remote, with no real infrastructure to speak of. All Venezuelan military equipment and personnel would have to be hauled in by air, or possibly small boat.
One possible trick is that the US might step in to prevent a war of conquest from succeeding. (Monroe doctrine, plus the US already doesn't like Venezuela.) But perhaps this is only a political...
One possible trick is that the US might step in to prevent a war of conquest from succeeding. (Monroe doctrine, plus the US already doesn't like Venezuela.)
But perhaps this is only a political distraction and they won't actually try to do it.
The euphemism treadmill trundles on. Eventually every mildly unpalatable concept will only be able to be described using a minimum of five polysyllabic words (uttered sotto voce and with gestures...
The euphemism treadmill trundles on. Eventually every mildly unpalatable concept will only be able to be described using a minimum of five polysyllabic words (uttered sotto voce and with gestures of regret and chagrin) and the exhausted, sore-throated masses will lapse into silence or else confine themselves to burbling inanities, no longer possessing the stamina to even describe the increasing depravities committed on them by a ruling class now rendered incomprehensible by their constant efforts to obsfucate and pander.
I'd note that Ethiopia has been posturing to invade Eritrea to gain access to their ports in the Red Sea, particularly Assab, which was their major trading port for centuries pre-20th century. So...
The last thing we need right now is a third major conflict on a third continent.
I'd note that Ethiopia has been posturing to invade Eritrea to gain access to their ports in the Red Sea, particularly Assab, which was their major trading port for centuries pre-20th century.
“150 million people cannot reside in a geographical prison,” Abiy said in his October 13 address on the port issue, citing Ethiopia’s projected population figure by 2030. “Whether you’d like it or not, [the prison] will blast somewhere.”
So we could very well have four major territorial conflicts on four continents!
Which of these country has the 150million people with potential to be de facto imprisoned? The combination of both Eritrea and Ethiopia? This is awful.
Which of these country has the 150million people with potential to be de facto imprisoned? The combination of both Eritrea and Ethiopia? This is awful.
Yikes, is that all they mean? To not be landlocked? There are many many nations on the planet without a sea port that don't see themselves as being imprisoned, and certainly dont need genocidal...
Yikes, is that all they mean? To not be landlocked? There are many many nations on the planet without a sea port that don't see themselves as being imprisoned, and certainly dont need genocidal war and mass rape to acquire said seaport.
Ethiopia is in a fairly unique spot. Amongst their landlocked peers, they are a clear standout; Ethiopia has a GDP of $43b, the next largest landlocked country, Uganda, has a GDP of $20b. Ethiopia...
Exemplary
Ethiopia is in a fairly unique spot. Amongst their landlocked peers, they are a clear standout; Ethiopia has a GDP of $43b, the next largest landlocked country, Uganda, has a GDP of $20b. Ethiopia has a population of almost 125m today; Uganda, 31m. Currently, 95% of their trade volume goes through a single port in Djibouti, with whom they have a lease with.
Next is that their landlocked status is very recent - it was only completed in 1993, when Eritrea declared their independence. Ethiopia has had a long history in the region, and the states the modern Ethiopia considers itself a successor to at various points had control over the entire horn of africa, and were a dominant trading power in the red sea, so it's a deep wound from a heritage perspective to now not even be able to have a navy.
Compounded is that Ethiopia has been constantly under domestic turmoil between the various ethnic groups in Ethiopia, and that Eritrea picks sides, so the possibility of being denied access to Eritrean ports is not only a very real possibility, but is the case today, if Eritrea is on the other side of a domestic conflict to the current government. Djibouti is untouchable because of foreign military presence, and the two Sudans are a clusterfuck.
That's not to say that Ethiopia is in any way justified in waging a war of conquest against a sovereign nation (who very vehemently does not want to be part of Ethiopia), but that it's not a trivial issue either of "just wanting a seaport", which is why it's such a sticky issue.
Fascinating context, thank you. I think the population forecasts for many African countries this century will put a pin in any sort of decarbonisation efforts for the global economy, there will be...
Fascinating context, thank you. I think the population forecasts for many African countries this century will put a pin in any sort of decarbonisation efforts for the global economy, there will be just too many people with an awareness of what living standards others around the world enjoy to just sit back and accept a low-impact lifestyle.
Via a law announced Tuesday, Venezuela will create a new province or state in the disputed territory, having already appointed a single provisional authority: Major-General Alexis Rodríguez Cabello
The Brazilian army is moving armored vehicles and more troops to Boa Vista, the capital of Roraima state that borders both Venezuela and Guyana after Venezuelans voted in a referendum on Sunday to approve the annexation of the Esequibo.
The four-wheel drive Guaicuru armored vehicles will join an upgraded 18th Mechanized Cavalry Regiment whose force will increase to 600 soldiers to improve security along the border and intensify surveillance to avoid surprises, a military source told Reuters.
"Neither side will be able to take advantage of our territory," the army officer said.
At issue is a 160,000-square km (61,776 square-mile) region more than twice the size of Ireland that is mostly thick jungle. Venezuela reactivated its claim over the Esequibo in recent years after the discovery of offshore oil and gas.
Brazil's top diplomat for Latin America and the Caribbean, Gisela Padovan, said the main road connection between Venezuela and Guyana is through Brazilian territory due the inaccessible terrain of the Esequibo, but its use in any military action would not be accepted by her country.
"We are following the situation with concern. I do not believe it will come to an armed conflict," she said in an interview on Monday in which she urged a peaceful resolution.
I'm going to carefully dip my toe in here as this is the kind of topic steeped in the sort of politics I don't like provoking on Tildes anymore, however I have some minor experience on the oil side of this equation both through my own career and that of my father who worked extensively in Venezuela prior to Chavez.
The country within its current borders has more oil than it could ever need, recognized as the largest reserves in the world, and prior to the Bolivarian Revolution was the richest nation in South America. While I have never lived there I have now worked with over a hundred Venezuelan expats and refugees that all speak of what we would call a middle class lifestyle afforded to them by working in the Venezuelan oil industry. My father, who did live and work there (as a Canadian expat) also describes a very different country than what exists today. The oil there is very heavy, similar in viscosity to the Canadian oilsands, and requires a level of know how a technology to extract well beyond that found in other third world countries like the Middle East. Despite this fact, once upon a time, the Venezuelan oil industry, with Venezuelan employees, educated in Venezuela, and Venezuelan technology mixed with international service companies (Schlumberger, Halliburton, Weatherford-Computalog) got it done.
And then came the Bolivarian's.
Since Chavez the ample resources of Venezuela have been ruined. Without getting too technical oilfields can be "ruined" for a number of reasons including over production and improper extraction that damage the producibility of the reservoir. The oil is still there but it becomes increasingly difficult to pull out of the ground due to bad practices. Likewise the knowledge and experience has been chased out of the country as the majority of Venezuelans that could extract these resources have evacuated to either Houston or Alberta to help us produce ours.
Venezuela could steal this region from Guyana and it won't matter. I don't even understand why they would try. They are just going to ruin it. They already have more oil within their borders than this region has and they aren't producing it. Their oil industry is in shambles. They have chased out the education. They have chased out the manufacturing necessary. Invading Guyana will do nothing to change this fact.
If the referendum is even true, it's likely just a populist powerplay using a population in dire straits. The point isn't to solve the problem, the point is to dangle a carrot in front of their faces so they don't realise who the real culprit is and (presumably) unpack ye olde guillotine.
Thank you very much though for your expert insight! I learned something new.
That is sad though, I always enjoyed the conversations here and your name and your comments do mean something to me :(
Sounds like it's similar to many other stupid human moves, short term thinking in an attempt to overcome immediate obstacles regardless of long term consequences.
Glad to see you back!
Whenever I read "Venezuelans" and "vote" in the same sentence, I can't help but wonder if the writer is messing with me.
From other sources:
We're talking about a ruthless dictatorship, where "elections" have probably been rigged for over 20 years, opposing candidates have been prosecuted, fled the country and possibly even murdered. There's extreme violence and poverty, a massive shortage of basic goods (including food), and people get routinely killed in the city just to steal their sneakers or whatever phone they're carrying.
Whoever thinks any significant part of the Venezuelan population cares enough about this to actually go out and vote... probably needs a serious reality check.
In this context, referendums and similar nation-wide polls are usually nothing but an attempt to justify whatever atrocities the government has already decided to embark on, or just a smokescreen to create fictional, external "enemies", so people will partially have someone else to blame for the misery they're suffering.
yeah i think saying "Venezuelans vote" rather than "Venezuelan government reports referendum results" is kind of insidious. Even if the government isn't straight up thumbing the scales and lying about the votes, there's no way the turnout isn't abysmally low.
Updated title
Two-thirds of their territory? Isn't this all but a declaration of war then? No nation on earth would accept losing the majority of its sovereign territory without a fight. The last thing we need right now is a third major conflict on a third continent.
Population of Guyana: ~ 813,000
Population of Venezuela: ~ 28,800,000
Unless Guyana has some tricks up its sleeve, that's not likely to be a very major conflict.
Guyana has a close relationship with Brazil and has received substantial military assistance from them.
There’s also the fact that the region claimed is remote, with no real infrastructure to speak of. All Venezuelan military equipment and personnel would have to be hauled in by air, or possibly small boat.
One possible trick is that the US might step in to prevent a war of conquest from succeeding. (Monroe doctrine, plus the US already doesn't like Venezuela.)
But perhaps this is only a political distraction and they won't actually try to do it.
Given it's over oil, that could lead to other nations taking sides.
I find it interesting that in the modern era, war is declared all but in the name of war: special operations, takeover referendums, and so on.
The euphemism treadmill trundles on. Eventually every mildly unpalatable concept will only be able to be described using a minimum of five polysyllabic words (uttered sotto voce and with gestures of regret and chagrin) and the exhausted, sore-throated masses will lapse into silence or else confine themselves to burbling inanities, no longer possessing the stamina to even describe the increasing depravities committed on them by a ruling class now rendered incomprehensible by their constant efforts to obsfucate and pander.
I'd note that Ethiopia has been posturing to invade Eritrea to gain access to their ports in the Red Sea, particularly Assab, which was their major trading port for centuries pre-20th century.
So we could very well have four major territorial conflicts on four continents!
Which of these country has the 150million people with potential to be de facto imprisoned? The combination of both Eritrea and Ethiopia? This is awful.
That's Ethiopia's projected future population, the imprisonment they mean is being landlocked.
Yikes, is that all they mean? To not be landlocked? There are many many nations on the planet without a sea port that don't see themselves as being imprisoned, and certainly dont need genocidal war and mass rape to acquire said seaport.
Ethiopia is in a fairly unique spot. Amongst their landlocked peers, they are a clear standout; Ethiopia has a GDP of $43b, the next largest landlocked country, Uganda, has a GDP of $20b. Ethiopia has a population of almost 125m today; Uganda, 31m. Currently, 95% of their trade volume goes through a single port in Djibouti, with whom they have a lease with.
Next is that their landlocked status is very recent - it was only completed in 1993, when Eritrea declared their independence. Ethiopia has had a long history in the region, and the states the modern Ethiopia considers itself a successor to at various points had control over the entire horn of africa, and were a dominant trading power in the red sea, so it's a deep wound from a heritage perspective to now not even be able to have a navy.
Compounded is that Ethiopia has been constantly under domestic turmoil between the various ethnic groups in Ethiopia, and that Eritrea picks sides, so the possibility of being denied access to Eritrean ports is not only a very real possibility, but is the case today, if Eritrea is on the other side of a domestic conflict to the current government. Djibouti is untouchable because of foreign military presence, and the two Sudans are a clusterfuck.
That's not to say that Ethiopia is in any way justified in waging a war of conquest against a sovereign nation (who very vehemently does not want to be part of Ethiopia), but that it's not a trivial issue either of "just wanting a seaport", which is why it's such a sticky issue.
Fascinating context, thank you. I think the population forecasts for many African countries this century will put a pin in any sort of decarbonisation efforts for the global economy, there will be just too many people with an awareness of what living standards others around the world enjoy to just sit back and accept a low-impact lifestyle.
Venezuela-Guyana dispute: Maduro mobilizes the army and announces annexation of Essequibo
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-reinforces-border-with-venezuela-guyana-over-esequibo-tensions-2023-12-05/
Could Brazil take over Venezuela?
That seems incredibly unlikely.
U.S. announces military drills with Guyana amid dispute over oil-rich region with Venezuela
Brazil to send observer to Guyana Venezuela meeting