State of EVs in Fall 2023?
My RSS reader has turned up a lot of pessimistic articles about the state of EVs in the last few days, for example:
https://www.thedrive.com/news/gm-is-stalling-ev-production-because-demand-is-falling-off
https://www.thedrive.com/news/gm-delays-expanded-silverado-ev-production-orion-assembly-by-year
https://techcrunch.com/2023/10/17/gm-delays-4b-ev-truck-factory-plan-by-another-year/
https://techxplore.com/news/2023-10-vietnam-vinfast-struggles-electric-cars.html
Caught this YouTube video also:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZlsZwcIgpc
Because of the car industry's obsession with XXL vehicles, Australia is thinking about increasing the size of the standard parking space
meanwhile, given a choice, consumers are snapping up the reasonably sized and highly efficient (40mpg!) Ford Maverick
maybe those American consumers might desire a bigger truck but they can afford that one.
When I read between the lines I'm inclined to think that there isn't any shortage of interest in EVs, but there is a shortage of interest in $80,000 EVs because very few people can afford them. What are you seeing in your neck of the woods? What intervention can you imagine that would help get the industry come to its senses?
Here's an email I wrote to Natural Resources Canada:
Charging at a public charging station should be no different, IMO, than filling up at a gas station.
It's ridiculous how many public chargers won't accept credit card payment directly on the charger. I understand it adds cost and complexity, but if it's a public charger than someone should be able to use it without having to download ANOTHER app and then make ANOTHER account.
In either approach, they basically are saying "tap a card to pay us". You can use a credit card to top up their card, which is circuitous, and seems more complex. They've already made machines that can read a payment card (their own). Whether they use a credit card reader or a generic card reader seems like a hardware module difference---and maybe the credit card module is a bit more expensive than some no-name brand. Both cards need a network connection to track the transaction. I can't imagine the implementation costs being drastically different.
Preach. Consider writing your representative to complain. The more people who complain, the greater the odds of change.
Credit card terminal hardware is a needlessly convoluted and annoying thing to deal with. You can't just use generic hardware and build your own, because the credit card companies are anal about what their systems interact with. When you use your credit card at a local shop, it's likely going through a number of middlemen - usually it'll go through the business's credit card processor, who is actually a smaller company who resells their access from another company, who then sends it to the credit card companies, who then checks with the systems they've built with the card issuer - which in some cases may mean checking your bank balances. The terminals themselves are proprietary and built with a lot of anti-tampering built into them, which means they are often sold at a premium.
But yes, you're right; there's really no excuse for them to not have them on charging stations. One should not need to sign a terms of use agreement just to draw some power.
Saw a video by a YouTuber explaining why non-tesla charging sucks. Yep each has its own app, but worse the vast majority of them don't charge at what they advertise. And not just a few kw but like they'll advertise 150kw and only hit 30-50. Not to mention they always seem to be located far away from amenities... Seems like a missed opportunity for someone stuck in an area for 20+ minutes.
I think you’re thinking of Aging Wheels?
That's something that has really surprised me in an area that's got moderate charging opportunities. There really many located at places that are worth spending time. There's some at a nearby mall which are free which makes a ton of sense, but why aren't there more near restaurants, cafes, and coffee places? I'd love to get coffee and do some work while charging but that's pretty much only possible at the mall.
I suspect it's related to the initial capital cost since running high voltage lines to a parking lot is costly. But still surprised I haven't seen more in larger restaurant and retail areas. Heck I'd go to Costco more if I could charge while shopping.
Wow that looks like a nightmare. I only have to get an RFID tag from a company that works on all the chargers in the country and directly bills my account monthly. Although I have two since there are sometimes price differences.
The App mess needs to be legislated away as soon as possible. Preferably moving to plug & charge or card payments.
We've got the same thing in the Nordics. You can get by with ... maybe three apps? But to get all, you need 6-7.
The worst bit is that they've got roaming which means that if you use the "wrong" app on a station, you might end up paying 5x more for electricity.
On the other hand in daily use I use two RFID tags to authenticate to the main networks I use on my regular routes. Not a huge hassle and definitely easier than an app.
The industry isn’t crazy. This is how R&D for cars work. Economy cars are very low margin - in fact, many carmakers make almost nothing on the car sale for cars like the Corolla or civic and make their profits in financing fees. They are possible because of economies of scale.
But when you’re moving to an entirely new platform, you by definition don’t have the supply chain to enjoy economies of scale. It’s therefore more logical to make your first EVs expensive, low volume luxury cars.
As that market becomes saturated, carmakers will also get better at making EVs for cheap, and the economy vehicles will come. It’s not madness, it’s just how things work.
That is the way that Tesla went with the roadster, S and X, and finally the Y and 3. It’s also the way that Rivian is going with their R1 vehicles coming to market first, and then (presumably) smaller and lower cost R2 vehicles coming once their plant in GA gets going.
What’s interesting to me is that the other American manufacturers are so slow to commit to real volume in EVs. The only thing I can point to here is possibly supply constraints and dealers being reluctant to sell them. I do think if nothing changes on that front that Tesla and Rivian and foreign makes are going to spell the end of the likes of Ford, GM, etc. Or maybe those companies will retreat to making cars for collectors or hobbyists or something.
I don't think it's just R&D that's pushing the cars that are on the road right now. I think a lot of it is (lack of) regulation and what carmakers can get away with for the cheapest cost to them while passing on the seeming benefits to the buyer. So many people I've talked to online and off don't want these big cars, but they're forced to because that's the only option available for a somewhat reasonable price.
We bought the bigger bolt because of the cost and the size. because everyone else is driving bigger cars around here, and I've nearly been run off the road in my tiny compact hatchback more times than I can count because these bigger cars just can't see me.
Plus, by now most of the people who would immediately jump onto a new type of car will have bought one. Including people who:
Now you're left with the people who only adapt to a new technology once their existing solution stops working. As in, the vast majority of them. My current car is 8y old and works perfectly fine and gets used maybe once a week as it is. Considering I also live in an apartment block and have no way to install charging in the parking garage on my own - and the landlord is unwilling to do so even if I were to pay for it - there's just no option right now to upgrad to a BEV.
But... there's also inherently no need. Mentally speaking. My car works, has no faults at all (it's not some old thing that is leaking and all), station wagons are rare anyways for BEVs so far and I'm one of the few people in my circle of friends who can transport stuff so I'd rather get one of those, I basically have no desire, motivation or incentive to swap it out, given how utterly marginal my contribution to greenhouse gases is due to the extremely rare use.
If someone wanted me to still swap, they'd need to pay me:
Basically, given an expected driving time of 15 years, I'd need to get the BEV at least 50% off to consider tossing a perfectly fine and driving car into the bin to replace it right now.
I'm sorry, I just don't have the money to randomly replace my car. Hence no buy.
If you already have a 100% paid for car, there is no amount of math that will make switching to a new car feasible or logical.
BUT if you're making monthly payments anyway, you should sit down and see whether the cheaper operating costs of an EV offset a slightly bigger monthly payment.
My completely uninformed, layperson view of things is that the industry is having trouble with EVs because they insist on targeting luxury cars instead of affordable options. Here’s a list of the current offerings in the US. They’re almost all expensive — some ridiculously so.
Anecdotally speaking, I ordered a Chevy Bolt — one of the few affordable EV options — in June of 2022. There was literally no available inventory in my area (though part of that was because they couldn’t sell the ones they had under recall). Every dealership I spoke to had waitlists multiple people deep.
I didn’t receive my car until February 2023, a full eight months later.
The folks over at r/BoltEV kept a crowdsourced spreadsheet with order and delivery times. It revealed that many people waited even longer than I did — some over a year! The demand for the car was very clearly there, and it’s in part because there’s almost no competition at that price point.
I would love to see them open up more options in that space. Pretty much everyone I know is at least considering an EV as their next car, but I know very few people who could afford most of the models on offer now.
The electric motorcycle scene is much of the same, unfortunately. No budget options, all luxury and/or performance stuff that's way too expensive for most people.
Fortnine has a video on it: Why Electric Motorcycles are Failing
E: fixed the link
I would love to swap out my bike for an electric, and I'm in the same boat: this is waaaaay too expensive for me to even consider it currently.
"Luxury" cars have higher profit margins, they'll start making cheaper ones when they get their ducks in a row and the system optimised enough. Currently pretty much all manufacturers have months of production backlog, so they don't really need to dip into the cheaper categories yet.
The coming years will show whether the introduction of cheap Chinese cars will force their hand.
To add some additional numbers to this context, CleanTechnica has a [rather incomplete] article about the German EV market and the gist is that car sales have been suppressed during the pandemic time-frame, but this year was worse than last year by a good margin. If I'm reading the article right, there was a 29% reduction in battery electric vehicles (BEVs) registered compared to the same period last year. And a nearly 7% reduction in plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). BEV sales in the month of September were 9% below the year's average.
I think some of the takeaways from this are exactly as was said above. People want cheaper EVs and the cost-effective alternative to a new ICE car is to get a hybrid rather than a BEV. People who wanted an EV rather than needed one already have one and we're not at a point in the cycle where we'd be seeing those people necessarily trade-up for a newer car right now and part of that is because of the economy. But that economic pressure also puts pressure on people's finances and so people are less likely to go out and buy top-tier luxury models. As the CleanTechnica article shows, car sales are very mixed, but there are not trending towards top-tier luxury models at the moment.
As an American I was a little surprised that German manufacturers didn't make up a larger percentage of the lists, but they were certainly a major player in contributing nearly 50% of PHEV and BEV sales in September. But the top 5 selling vehicles in Germany in September came from Tesla (made-in-Germany, I suppose), Opel, Fiat, Ford, and Opel again.
I'm interested to see how Volvo's new EVs do in Europe. Their parent company is pushing hard to have a Chinese-made, Volvo-branded car, the EX30, sold in the US at a cut-throat price. They believe that even with tariffs on Chinese products in place that the car's sub-$40k price tag will be competitive within the US market. Their next-tier up is an additional $20k and made entirely in Europe.
German manufacturers have 100 year old supply chains and moving them from ICE to EV production isn't a simple thing technologically or politically.
I work in a field that averages well over the median income, and absolutely can't even consider an electric car. My student loan payments are already stressful enough on a software engineer's salary, and that's basically a car payment. I'm keeping my older Fit, which is an excellent car, as long as I possibly can.
EVs are also hard to justify because:
They're much more expensive, but don't offer what true luxury cars do. You could buy a real luxury car for less money.
I rent. They're a complete nonstarter for people who live in apartments. There are also very few places in public that offer charging, and they don't fit into my typical commuting routine at all.
There's an enormous coal plant just a few miles from where I live now. (Unlike where I grew up, which has a much cleaner grid.) It's not really a net positive to create the large carbon footprint of a brand new car just to cause another 1-3 households worth of coal usage.
I despise large and heavy cars with a burning passion, which most EVs presently are. I will never own a car bigger than a Civic, and am generally opposed to buying a car unless it's made by Honda or Toyota (or maybe Subaru or Mazda). I simply would not feel good about purchasing anything on the market right now.
If I had to buy a car in the current market, it would be a hatchback Civic Sport Touring or Integra, since the Fit is no longer available in North America. Once we get an EV Civic that doesn't compromise weight and size, it would be a strong contender...but making homeownership a prerequisite to buying a car is still a joke in the current housing market.
Edit: the new, sportier Prius is also intriguing. (200hp PHEV!)
Everything you’re saying makes sense to me. I see nothing wrong with PHEVs being the stepping stone to fully electric. Most people drive around 20–40 miles in a particular day. That reflects the vast majority of total trips—apparently 95% of individual trips are under 30 miles, and 60% are under 6 miles. PHEVs therefore have the capacity the eliminate all of these carbon emissions.
Recently I learned that you can sometimes request a different energy supplier than your energy delivery company, even when renting in an apartment. At this moment I happen to be renting, and happen to have switched to a power purchase agreement with a green supplier. I still pay the bill through the same power delivery company—the only one in my area—but I also get an email once a month telling me I’ve saved 800kwh of carbon emissions.
I pay somewhat more for my electricity now, but at least it’s coming from renewable sources.
I absolutely agree with your opinion / summary. Recently, just out of curiosity I configured an EV that has roughly the same dimensions like my current car. I configured it in a realistic way, so the way I would really order it. I ended up in the mid 50000 € range. There's just no way I would want to invest such amount of money in a car that will be outdated in some years. I think the market really lacks everyday hero family cars of acceptable range for an acceptable price tag.
I'm just not at all in the market for these obese suvs that I can't navigate through my medieval hometown. I really hope that there will be better solutions in the near future, so I absolutely fit the bill of people who are interested in them but as of right now wouldn't buy one.
Anecdotal: Suburban Chicagoland here. I keep seeing more and more EVs on the road, and made the switch myself last year. I suspect that adoption is much higher here than someplace more rural.
I'd like to lease an EV but small affordable models (think an electric version of a Honda Fit) are notably absent. It used to be better but several models have been discontinued.
The closest available right now is the Chevy Bolt, but dealers only order the expensive trims. Dealer markup is also high because they want to cash in on the tax rebates which is bad to start with but hurts even more if you happen to sit ever so slightly past the mark for qualifying for tax rebates.
The OG Hyundai Ioniq Electrics are very good affordable EV's. Not the new fancy Delorean looking Ioniq 5, but the two before that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyundai_Ioniq
Dunno if they're available in the US though.
All I want is a PHEV with about 30 miles EV range that can comfortably sit 5 and with a bunch of space in the back for gear. I could do a van or truck with a cap. I have a choice between a Pacifica and ... yeah, that's it. I've done long distance trips in an EV and it's just not there yet, constantly planning around where the chargers are, hotel chargers being broken, bleh. But around town, I loved it. Always charged and ready to go.
I've heard some people say that a used Nissan LEAF with a seriously degraded battery pack can still be good if you have a short commute and the price is right.
They are really dirt cheap too. I sold mine earlier this year for $3000.
I had my first experience at buying an older, somewhat "unusual", but affordable car for my son to drive to work. (still lives on the farm and it makes sense for it to be on my insurance) He saw an ad for an '87 Chrysler Fifth Avenue down in North Carolina and wanted to drive down there from New York, I found a '96 Buick Park Avenue over in Norwich and he fell in love with it right away.
Having had that experience, I am thinking "boy I could almost use a $3000 EV"...
You can also upgrade a Leaf to hold a battery about 25% bigger than the original was for under $10k if you find the right shop
I'm not sure what their availability is, but I would think that the Toyota Prius Prime 2023 and onwards would suit your needs. It has 39-44 miles of electric-only range and up to 51 mpg combined for fuel economy. And for something
grotesquedifferent, Lexus has a 2024 Lexus TX PHEV with 404hp and ~33 miles of electric range. I'm not sure what Honda/Acura and Subaru have going on right now. Subaru is ending their Crosstrek PHEV and going for a standard hybrid configuration -- the PHEV only got around 17 miles of all-electric driving anyway. Hopefully they return to PHEVs in 2026 or so since they do some platform sharing with Toyota already.Earlier this year Toyota announced intentions of increasing that electric range to over 100-miles by 2026 for some PHEVs and that includes larger vehicles. These emerging PHEV options sound like a great option for short trips to the grocery store (or soccer practice) and longer family trips. However it's possible that with the right driving routine PHEVs won't be necessary for the average commuter. Standard ICE driving and regenerative breaking could keep the battery charged enough that shorter trips (especially during ideal weather) are feasible without plugging in or running the engine for long.
So when you say seat five comfortably do you really mean three rows?
3 in a row is doable. I have 3 kid, 11, 9 and 6. I once saw a person who retrofit 3 narrow bucket seats in the back of a pickup for his kids and it worked great.
I'm six feet tall and can sit in the back of a Camry. The shoulder room isn't great with two other adults, but it's doable on occasion. They have very spacious trunks too.
The hybrid ones are like 52mpg combined city and highway, but I don't think they have an electric-only mode. But the Prius-type drive train definitely can use very little fuel in the right contexts.
Man I can't wait until EVs are a no brainer. My old 2010 Subaru better hold up until then because I don't wanna get another car
I think the article you linked from english.eplis.com gives a hint. Perhaps we'll soon see an influx of cheap EVs
I sure see a lot more Tesla model Y's on the road in the past year - I even got one myself.
I think the biggest problems are twofold
1- If you don't have a place to charge at home it's probably not worth it. This alone probably dissuades a huge portion of the population, who rent, or don't have a garage, etc.
2 - Need affordable options. Manufacturers need to make huge factory investments to make them cheap. They're not making them cheap yet (making at scale) because their EV sales haven't taken off. Their EV sales haven't taken off because they haven't made them cheap enough yet. Ad infinum. The reason you see a ton of Teslas and almost nothing else is because they seem to be the only one that made a huge manufacturing investment and now can create EVs at scale, at a worthy price to the consumer.
Lesser problems are long trips - I think the infrastructure is pretty much there now, I haven't had any problems charging in the last year, but some people will still be dissuaded by the longer time it takes to "fill up" the car)
On the positive side of buying an electric car (or at least Tesla)
As much as I hate to admit it, I can’t understate how much Tesla has ingrained itself into the collective consciousness in regards to EVs.
I see a fairly significant number of Teslas in my area. There’s easily 2(at least) at every intersection now. Meanwhile non-Tesla EVs are as sparse as ever, especially when it comes to full size sedans. Only the Ioniq 5 seems somewhat common.
Meanwhile I myself made the switch to an EV6 earlier this year, and when my dad showed someone a picture of my new EV, they asked what kind of Tesla that was. And when a friends mom decided they wanted to buy an EV, that was their only question as well: “which Tesla model should I get?”
I know this is anecdotal, but I could understand why other EV makers without well known and iconic cars are struggling. Pretty much everyone who can afford a full sized EV is just buying a Tesla by default, and those who don’t want Tesla are buying from Kia/Hyundai
I'm honestly kind of amazed at how poorly the rest of the industry has managed to compete with Tesla. Sure, they have the first mover advantage, but the big automakers are so huge and flush with cash that they should have been able to overtake them, or at least make something a lot more competitive than what they are offering now. The model 3 is a bit less than 40K, and the only car that's even close to being as good (in the US market) is the Chevy Bolt. To Chevy's credit it's about 10K less, but it's also got tons of dumb design flaws, doesn't have as many "luxury" features, and underperforms in a number of key factors - especially when it comes to fast charging (the Bolt maxes out at 50KW, while the model 3 base model can do 170KW). The industry's move to use Tesla's NACS standard is emblematic of the industry desperate to emulate what Tesla is getting right.
I think non-Tesla charging infrastructure needs to be further built out before I and others will be comfortable buying an EV. If I were to buy a new vehicle today, it wouldn't be a BEV. Much of my vehicle driving is long trips (I commute on a motorcycle unless the weather is bad). And they don't make a PHEV that meets my needs anyway. Most people who rent can't charge at home. Charging stations aren't frequent or reliable enough for road trips, and the cost can end up being more than gas anyway. There are a lot of problems to be solved before EVs become ubiquitous.