This started as a post on asking about how long you think you could survive a massive supply chain disruption and associated collapse of authorities ability to intervene.

But the more I thought about it, the more it seemed to paint a picture of a postwar context. Post-Yugoslavian War, post-Korean War, etc. Also, I don’t know if we’ve had any recent memories of sudden, total plunges into anarchy.

I wonder if the modern economy has lengthened the farm-to-table too much that no one could reasonably expect to sustain themselves for any longer than they have food in storage.

What strategies would you use/did you use to survive? Did society break down into roving gangs? If such a thing happened now, do you feel like you could weather the storm?

You can thank my being snowed in the last few days and watching World War Z, The Last of Us, Book of Elijah, Elysium, the Alone TV series and the Band of Brothers for inspiring this post.

Now that ChatGPT's been around for long enough to become a quotidian fixture, I think most of us have realized that we're closer than expected to generalized artificial intelligence (or at least a reasonable facsimile of it), even when comparing to just a couple years ago.

OG AI doomers like Eliezer Yudkowsky seem a little less nutty nowadays. Even for those of us who still doubt the inevitably of the AI apocalypse, the idea has at least become conceivable.

In fact, the concept of an AI apocalypse has become mainstream enough to gain a cute moniker: p(doom), i.e. the (prior) probability that AI will inflict an existential crisis on humanity.

So for funsies, I ask my dear tilderinos: what is your p(doom)? How do you define an "existential crisis" (e.g., 90%+ population lost)? Why did you chose your prior? How would you change public policy to address your p(doom)?

I have been thinking recently, if a climate crisis is almost inevitable at this point what actions could an individual take to stay safe? I'm thinking some kind of underground bunker able to to sustain life. The main things you would need is power, water and food. The power is fairly simple since you could set up solar and wind generation and probably use that to grow food underground but I'm wondering what you would do for water. How possible would it be to collect barrels from the sea and have a personal desalination plant.

I think it is a given that we are going to experience massive social disruption as the effects of global warming manifest. These will include the loss of edible sea life from ocean acidification, the loss of potable water from desertification, and famine as crops fail and pests that were previously kept in check by winter temperatures proliferate. Storms and wildfires will become more intense. These events will lead to social unrest and a migration crisis that makes what Europe is experiencing seem like a family member overstaying their holiday welcome.

Not a rosey picture, certainly, but if anything the analysis is superficial and understated.

That said, it's likely some areas will fare better than others. How can we identify these oases? Some characteristics I think could give an area a good chance:

• Equatorial - regions near the equator will see less temperature rise. An increase of two degrees C near the equator translates to something like 12 degrees C near the poles. Equatorial regions should see less temperature change.

• 'Eternal spring' climate - found in high altitudes near the equator, it's about 20 degrees C (70 degrees F) year-round with dry and wet seasons. However wet seasons will probably get worse too, so maybe this is not ideal.

• Water independence - should have access to potable water that does not rely on public infrastructure. Wells, springs, streams, etc.

• Food independence - should have access to game or growing conditions that will not negatively be effected by global warming. Should not rely on fish for most protein needs.

• Social cohesion - strong social bonds are ideal, however an openness towards outsiders is also ideal. I would write off most of the US right off. Too many guns and we can't even agree people have a right to healthcare when things are relatively good. At the same time, I might not fare well in a country like Japan where nobody even litters, but they also don't trust foreigners.

• Not New Zealand - apparently this is where the rich people are going. No thanks, unless guillotine expertise makes me eligible for a worker visa.

What else would you look for? Does anywhere fit the bill? Maybe we can create a post-Apocalyptic community dedicated to high-quality content and discussion.