It's absolutely ridiculous that he stopped marching. The die was cast at that point. There have been all these elaborate theories about how it was planned, or how it was a feint to get wagner...
It's absolutely ridiculous that he stopped marching. The die was cast at that point.
There have been all these elaborate theories about how it was planned, or how it was a feint to get wagner troops into Belarus to open another front, but it seems it was just an incompetent idiot rashly starting something he couldn't finish.
Once he started on that road, the only outcomes were what's just happened (assuming the reports are accurate) or victory. What on earth did Lukashenko say to him? What could have possibly convinced him that there was a way to deescalate and get away with a slap on the wrist?
I don't think it was necessarily the case of an incompetent idiot starting something he couldn't finish. Prigo attempted to capture Shoigu in Rostov. Given the rivalry between Wagner and the MoD,...
I don't think it was necessarily the case of an incompetent idiot starting something he couldn't finish. Prigo attempted to capture Shoigu in Rostov. Given the rivalry between Wagner and the MoD, that made some amount of sense: "He's in the area, let's revolt, capture the guy, force some concessions and/or make Prigo the new Minister, and then move on with the war." That didn't work. His Op failed and Prigo had to move, and yesterday. He had to do something now. Just going back to the front lines wouldn't work. Whether "drive on Moscow and see if we can't catch Putin" was plan B in case they didn't get Shoigu, or whether they hadn't seriously considered that contingency and had to improvise is anyone's guess, but I really don't think driving on Moscow was plan A, ever.
My completely uneducated and uninformed theories are: a) He couldn't complete the march to Moscow. Russia was caught unprepared and ground units were mounting last-minute defenses but I believe if...
My completely uneducated and uninformed theories are:
a) He couldn't complete the march to Moscow. Russia was caught unprepared and ground units were mounting last-minute defenses but I believe if push came to shove the air force would come into play and bomb the living shit out of everything looking armed within a 10mile radius. I doubt Wagner had the resources to counter an air assault.
b) He's not dead (you know, like Elvis) because you don't play the game around Putin for so long only to then merrily take flights within Russian airspace like it ain't no thing. Either he's amazingly lucky and has been failing upwards for years, or he's savvy enough to know he's a target.
But like I said, completely uninformed opinions.
Edit: "been upwards" corrected to "been failing upwards".
If the MoD had any real complaint about the Wagner rebellion it was that the Wagners shot down several airplanes, that is, they had enough anti-air equipment to do that but they might run out of...
If the MoD had any real complaint about the Wagner rebellion it was that the Wagners shot down several airplanes, that is, they had enough anti-air equipment to do that but they might run out of missiles if they fought the whole Air Force.
I think really though it is no easy to advance in a column of military vehicles. As a civilian the 600 miles from Rostov-on-Don to Moscow is a day’s drive and you can refuel with a gas credit card. Napoleon and Hitler learned advances on that terrain are not easy, remember how much trouble the Armed Forces had advancing on Kiev.
Because he miscalculated in the first place. By the time he realized how badly he’d miscalculated, he was in too deep. They weren’t going to manage to take Moscow. If they tried they’d absolutely...
Because he miscalculated in the first place. By the time he realized how badly he’d miscalculated, he was in too deep. They weren’t going to manage to take Moscow. If they tried they’d absolutely die so better to take the tiniest sliver of hope and give up, hoping that maybe it wasn’t quite too late to survive.
I'm not that convinced about that actually. Coups are always on a knife's edge in terms of timing etc. They're basically completely reliant on shock and awe to create a fait accompli. Wagner's...
Idk, maybe I'm giving Putin too much credit, but the whole thing was incredibly strange from the start to the very abrupt ending, not very organic in my opinion.
I'm not that convinced about that actually. Coups are always on a knife's edge in terms of timing etc. They're basically completely reliant on shock and awe to create a fait accompli. Wagner's fait accompli seems to have been intended to be capturing Shoigu in Rostov. After that failed Prigo was forced to move one way or another: Stand down (dooming himself and some co-conspirators, but probably not the average Wagner boot) or double down, risking a civil war that could kill millions of Russians, push the country into another decades long crisis and lose any gains in Ukraine.. He did a bit of both: Doubled down for a few hours, creating a somewhat credible threat of said civil war, and then took a deal. The options he had: (1) would lead to his death (2) would presumably be a bloody civil war that'd sooner or later see him dead too. I don't think he realistically had any chance given his starting position in Rostov. (3) a chance to live that does not involve slaughtering millions of Russians.
I can see why he took option 3. Even if we assume not a single altruistic thought. (2) really only works if you can make it happen quickly and cleanly. With his starting position in Rostov, he had to move. Probably only he and a few officers know whether they had actual plans for how to achieve a coup once they reached Moscow. Do they have people at the ready for all the things that need to happen? A media playbook to control the masses? A list of all the important buildings and persons they need to take? Are they confident they can grab Putin? With several hours notice? If not, are they confident they can convince Russian security services to switch sides or at least stand down? If so, what then? That's looking a lot more like a civil war than a coup if Putin escapes, which is likely. A civil war that Shoigu evidently didn't want to fight or didn't think he could win.
Note I'm taking the events up until Rostov completely for granted. Prigo had already unsuccessfully rebelled against Shoigu then, and is under pressure to move now to not suffer retribution. Whether the Shoigu/Rostov move was a good idea is anyone's guess, but I can kind of see how he maybe could've replaced him if he had caught him.
There are easier ways to do this. It just doesn't make any sense to have a fake mutiny. It hurts his credibility, they shot down a helicopter, causes paranoia and panic, and even messes with the...
There are easier ways to do this. It just doesn't make any sense to have a fake mutiny.
It hurts his credibility, they shot down a helicopter, causes paranoia and panic, and even messes with the war in Ukraine. There's 0 way this was some super master plan. There's some odd stuff sure, and that's because we just don't know everything that's going on, but in no way does putin benefit from this fiasco.
I think he realized it would be difficult for him to actually rule Russia and the kremlin. History empirically tells you that ir is one thing to gain power, a completely different one to hold the...
I think he realized it would be difficult for him to actually rule Russia and the kremlin. History empirically tells you that ir is one thing to gain power, a completely different one to hold the power. After the geenie was out of the bottle he saw that even if he would topple the regime he would most likely be targeted in the times to come. When Lukaschenko offered an escape he probably thought he had a way out of his predicament.
He had no shot of taking Moscow. If he actually started heading in they'd have bombed the shit out of him. His "coup attempt" was actually him and the Wagner mercenaries holding themselves...
He had no shot of taking Moscow. If he actually started heading in they'd have bombed the shit out of him. His "coup attempt" was actually him and the Wagner mercenaries holding themselves hostage. Because Russia is undermanned for actually conducting their invasion of Ukraine, they can't just blow up a big chunk of their own forces and equipment and potentially create room for further mutiny or dereliction among their forces. But if it came down to it they'd have done it.
So they promised he could hang out in Belarus instead, but then eventually Belarus says "psyche" and kicks them out. He comes back to Russia and gets killed with no fuss.
A lot of the theories think he got threatened somehow and was blackmailed, but what if instead he got exactly what he wanted? Often with negotiations with criminals a negotiator will offer things...
A lot of the theories think he got threatened somehow and was blackmailed, but what if instead he got exactly what he wanted?
Often with negotiations with criminals a negotiator will offer things like taking care of loved ones instead of the criminal themselves, because they're going to jail either way.
What if Prigozhin negotiated for some price for someone else, got it paid out, and from then on knew he was a dead man walking, but chose to do it anyway?
Like, some western country's spy agency promised to do something in exchange for Prigozhin marching back to Russia to disrupt their military operations, and then afterward his job was done so he just tried to disappear, knowing the odds were low he'd actually get away.
In the long run, it was unlikely he could really take and hold Moscow. Trying to do a feint and then drop off the map was maybe a decent exit strategy if you assume his only goal was to screw up the military advance for a few weeks.
It's a longshot, but then again so is any guess from someone who wasn't involved.
"You oopsie our AWACS, we oopsie you." - Pootin TBH I think the original "revolt" was more planned and known at high levels than they admit - but the chaos of the theater (and not being willing to...
"You oopsie our AWACS, we oopsie you." - Pootin
TBH I think the original "revolt" was more planned and known at high levels than they admit - but the chaos of the theater (and not being willing to let the grunts in on things) caused much more damage to occur than initially planned, such as the helos and rare expensive AWACS; someone had to pay.
I don't think the coup was orchestrated, and I think this assassination is pretty good evidence that it wasn't. The whole Ukraine War shows how far Putin's hubris has come. The fact that he...
I don't think the coup was orchestrated, and I think this assassination is pretty good evidence that it wasn't.
The whole Ukraine War shows how far Putin's hubris has come. The fact that he wouldn't know that one of his henchmen was plotting against him is not really very surprising.
Relatively expected no? It was more strange than anything that he was seemingly getting away with an all out mutiny against Putin with minimal consequences. "You come at the king, you best not miss."
Relatively expected no? It was more strange than anything that he was seemingly getting away with an all out mutiny against Putin with minimal consequences.
I think it's quite an old-school way of thinking. Very Cold War-era, in fact. Aircraft have been utilized as targets of politically motivated groups and as a venue to assassinate (or attempt to...
I think it's quite an old-school way of thinking. Very Cold War-era, in fact.
Aircraft have been utilized as targets of politically motivated groups and as a venue to assassinate (or attempt to assassinate) specific individuals from Trujillo to the president of Rwanda. Compared to commercial airliners, people on private planes are equally vulnerable but offer very limited collateral damage or surplus casualties. In either case there can also be a lot of plausible deniability for a plane crash, especially in a country that refuses to allow international investigators to view the scene.
Going back to WW2, taking out leadership while in the air was a major concern for all nations at war. There was at least one attempt at killing Hitler while he was onboard a plane (incidentally he would've been over Poland if the explosive had detonated). Famously, the USAAF shot down Isoroku Yamamoto's plane in the south Pacific. He was the commander of the Combined Fleet of the Imperial Japanese Navy and had been responsible for overseeing the attack on Pearl Harbor.
It's definitely not the first I have heard of it, although over the last five years, news of prominent russians falling from windows has been more frequent. There is no way to have proof but I...
It's definitely not the first I have heard of it, although over the last five years, news of prominent russians falling from windows has been more frequent.
There is no way to have proof but I always had my doubts about this plane crash here in the US. A progressive leader, planning a run for president. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Wellstone
What evidence do you have beyond a conspiracy theory that he was assassinated? The Wikipedia description of his death seems to pretty comprehensively show that shitty pilots were poorly flying a...
What evidence do you have beyond a conspiracy theory that he was assassinated? The Wikipedia description of his death seems to pretty comprehensively show that shitty pilots were poorly flying a plane in a situation where bad pilots might be expected to crash.
Nothing beyond timing and who benefits. Politically motivated killings are not unknown here. See Dr. King's assassination. The MOVE massacre in Pennsylvania. The labor movement in the late 1800s...
Nothing beyond timing and who benefits. Politically motivated killings are not unknown here. See Dr. King's assassination. The MOVE massacre in Pennsylvania. The labor movement in the late 1800s and first half of the 20th century.
Shooting down an airplane lets him take out multiple key players at once instead of just one. Also I imagine it would be harder to arrange for the leader of a mercenary group to fall out of a...
Shooting down an airplane lets him take out multiple key players at once instead of just one. Also I imagine it would be harder to arrange for the leader of a mercenary group to fall out of a window when he's likely on guard after leading an attempted coup compared to the usual politicians.
Alternatively, this actually IS a genuine accident, which no one will ever believe.
I want to see the alternate universe where there are all of these poorly maintained soviet era windows and Putin’s enemies are just really really unlucky.
I want to see the alternate universe where there are all of these poorly maintained soviet era windows and Putin’s enemies are just really really unlucky.
Worth noting that there's no confirmation of his death as of yet. BBC reporting "presumed dead," NYT reporting that his name was on the manifest of the crashed plane.
Worth noting that there's no confirmation of his death as of yet. BBC reporting "presumed dead," NYT reporting that his name was on the manifest of the crashed plane.
Yup. Putting my tin foil hat on, this seems like a win all around Putin gets to save face, since this "accident" is obviously intentional Prigozhin never got on the plane and can lead the rest of...
Yup. Putting my tin foil hat on, this seems like a win all around
Putin gets to save face, since this "accident" is obviously intentional
Prigozhin never got on the plane and can lead the rest of his life in exile in Belarus. But at the same time he loses any power and supporters he might have, since he's dead
Bodies are all burned to a crisp and unidentifiable
I don't think it adds up. Why not just kill him then? You get all of the upside and no threat of complications. Also, the immediate reactions to this news among the Russian military and online...
I don't think it adds up.
Why not just kill him then? You get all of the upside and no threat of complications. Also, the immediate reactions to this news among the Russian military and online communities has been outrage -- that's still a hornet's nest Putin needs to be careful of not stirring up, and unlikely he'd risk that just to appear to 'save face' vs. legitimate revenge or maybe in response to more planning by Prigozhin/Utkin.
Lukashenko might be those complications? He brokered that deal. I don't think he usually has much to say in the Kremlin, but considering how Putin's war is going... I'm not sure what Lukashenko's...
Why not just kill him then? You get all of the upside and no threat of complications.
Lukashenko might be those complications? He brokered that deal. I don't think he usually has much to say in the Kremlin, but considering how Putin's war is going... I'm not sure what Lukashenko's Agenda here would be, but I could imagine that for Putin it might not be worth it to offend Lukashenko right now. Lukashenko could also plausibly be the reason why Prigo can't just be resurrected. But I'm entirely spit balling here and don't even believe what I'm insinuating is very likely at all.
Is Lukashenko an idiot? From everything I've read, while he puts on a folksy face he's reasonably smart and able to keep Belarus from being absorbed into Russia, which isn't a small fear.
Is Lukashenko an idiot? From everything I've read, while he puts on a folksy face he's reasonably smart and able to keep Belarus from being absorbed into Russia, which isn't a small fear.
Not the faintest. It's kind of curious isn't it? What can he offer in terms of guarantees to both parties that would make them stand down? And what does he gain from it? Though I think it's...
Not the faintest. It's kind of curious isn't it? What can he offer in terms of guarantees to both parties that would make them stand down? And what does he gain from it?
Though I think it's probably too reductive to think of the guy as an idiot. He's held on long enough, I think that's proof he knows his stuff as a dictator. And these kinds of deals are the bread and butter of dictators.
We know there was frantic dealmaking involved when the march toward Moscow was happening, and something convinced Prigozhin to abruptly stop the march. And it was widely speculated that Prigozhin...
We know there was frantic dealmaking involved when the march toward Moscow was happening, and something convinced Prigozhin to abruptly stop the march. And it was widely speculated that Prigozhin being allowed to live was weakening Putin's tough-guy persona.
Why not just kill him then?
Yeah, that's a fair point, but that brings us to the next thing:
Also, the immediate reactions to this news among the Russian military and online communities has been outrage
Could this same loyalty not have tipped Prigozhin off that this was going to happen? I don't think it really matters to Putin that Prigozhin is dead--just that he is out of the picture and that Putin's image is restored.
If Prigozhin is alive and pops up again, he surely knows he'll be assassinated by a polonium-tipped umbrella or something that leaves an identifiable corpse. It's in his best interest to stay dead.
It also probably doesn't matter to him that he's alive, at best it's probably a neutral proposition. Prigozhin being alive while thought dead puts him in a position where he could further...
I don't think it really matters to Putin that Prigozhin is dead
It also probably doesn't matter to him that he's alive, at best it's probably a neutral proposition.
If Prigozhin is alive and pops up again, he surely knows he'll be assassinated by a polonium-tipped umbrella or something that leaves an identifiable corpse. It's in his best interest to stay dead.
Prigozhin being alive while thought dead puts him in a position where he could further embarrass Putin at any point in time. If he timed it right, he maybe even be able to challenge him again. I just don't see how that exchange would be worth the risk to Putin unless he really valued keeping Prigozhin alive.
It’s interesting to watch the birth of a conspiracy theory live. Presumably western media wrote the headlines like that because they were still waiting on some kind of official confirmation, but...
It’s interesting to watch the birth of a conspiracy theory live. Presumably western media wrote the headlines like that because they were still waiting on some kind of official confirmation, but wanted to break the story asap. Yet all over the internet you can read people seizing on the headline to say aha!
Of course, speculating that he faked his death would’ve been fun discussion regardless of the headline. Forgive me, this is just a continued interest of mine: we all think we should have access to real time, perfect information all over the globe, and can’t process my uncertainty in reporting.
TASS reported that he was on the passenger manifest, citing the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency. That's likely all the confirmation we'll ever receive, other than maybe eye witness accounts...
TASS reported that he was on the passenger manifest, citing the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency.
That's likely all the confirmation we'll ever receive, other than maybe eye witness accounts of him boarding the plane. Of course, these people do have body doubles as well.
I think it's likely he's dead, although it's possible it's a deception. I don't think Putin would be interested in having his death faked -- there's too much risk of blowback for no discernible gain. I could see Prigo faking his own death, but not like this. He'd need a sympathetic Pantsir crew and a valid cover story on why they happened to fire on his plane.
Yeah, I'd wager the simplest answer is probably true: in this case that Putin had him killed. But the whole situation has been so bizarre, so my trust is pretty low in any information/news...
Yeah, I'd wager the simplest answer is probably true: in this case that Putin had him killed. But the whole situation has been so bizarre, so my trust is pretty low in any information/news regarding Prigozhin at this point.
Yeeeup. Not even remotely shocked, other than it took this long and Prigozhin seemed to think this wouldn't happen. This is going to be a fascinating thing to research in decades when, maybe, more...
Yeeeup. Not even remotely shocked, other than it took this long and Prigozhin seemed to think this wouldn't happen.
This is going to be a fascinating thing to research in decades when, maybe, more info comes out about exactly what happened and how, but it sure does just put a giant reminder to the world that while Putin can't seem to handle Ukraine, he sure as hell will kill anyone he deems fit.
I suspect Wagner is already setup to have a successor, and wouldn't be surprised if some of their higher command just happens to vanish around this time as well.
Dmitry Utkin was allegedly onboard as well. He was the original Wagner Group frontman, when Prigozhin's ties were still just rumours. He's also where the group's namesake comes from, Wagner being...
Dmitry Utkin was allegedly onboard as well.
He was the original Wagner Group frontman, when Prigozhin's ties were still just rumours. He's also where the group's namesake comes from, Wagner being his call-sign in the GRU.
I’m no expert on plane accidents, but the way the plane tumbles down to earth in the videos… makes it look like it experiences an explosion of some sort. If there’s a video of the missles hitting...
I’m no expert on plane accidents, but the way the plane tumbles down to earth in the videos… makes it look like it experiences an explosion of some sort. If there’s a video of the missles hitting it, we’ll know for sure.
It’s not like Progozhin didn’t march on Moscow… Putin has a pretty huge reason to kill him and he killed so many opponents in the past.
I wonder who will head Wagner now, will this person be worse for humanity or better for Putin?
I think it's worth pointing out that Progozhin was not someone worth celebrating. There's some "enemy of my enemy" calculus and "what if"s we'll never really know the answers to, but both of these...
I wonder who will head Wagner now, will this person be worse for humanity or better for Putin?
I think it's worth pointing out that Progozhin was not someone worth celebrating. There's some "enemy of my enemy" calculus and "what if"s we'll never really know the answers to, but both of these people are deplorable and it's hard to get too excited when they're at each other's throats.
There's a video that is reported to be of the plane falling -- as much as I find it difficult to find much sympathy for the guy, watching its very long and slow descent makes me feel a bit sorry...
There's a video that is reported to be of the plane falling -- as much as I find it difficult to find much sympathy for the guy, watching its very long and slow descent makes me feel a bit sorry for him and others on the plane -- that's a LONG time to know that you're about to die.
Possible that the concussion of whatever took down the plane or the high G forces of the spinning knocked them out, but it appeared to me that the fuselage was intact, so it seemed possible to me...
Possible that the concussion of whatever took down the plane or the high G forces of the spinning knocked them out, but it appeared to me that the fuselage was intact, so it seemed possible to me that they were fully conscious for that minute of descent.
This is all happening the same week that Ukraine blows up five jets ‘deep within Russian territory’, along with the Russian Air Force general Surovikin being dismissed. Bad times for the Russian...
This outcome seems pretty embarrassing for Lukashenko. He negotiated the truce, which was his way of saying “I’m not a stooge of Putin, I sit at the adult table”. But his brokering was exposed as...
This outcome seems pretty embarrassing for Lukashenko. He negotiated the truce, which was his way of saying “I’m not a stooge of Putin, I sit at the adult table”. But his brokering was exposed as a total farce here. This has to undermine him even more at home.
I don't understand. In what universe did Prigozhin think Putin wasn't going to kill him after nearly laying siege to Moscow? Why was he flying back and forth to Russia like everything was cool?
I don't understand. In what universe did Prigozhin think Putin wasn't going to kill him after nearly laying siege to Moscow? Why was he flying back and forth to Russia like everything was cool?
I would watch a Breaking Bad-style TV show about someone like Prigozhin. Not only do I not know historical facts (the creator of such a show would not know them either) but I cannot even imagine...
I would watch a Breaking Bad-style TV show about someone like Prigozhin. Not only do I not know historical facts (the creator of such a show would not know them either) but I cannot even imagine the motivations of people like that.
If Pringles was half that smart his coup wouldn't have failed in the first place. Sometimes the simplest answer is the correct one, even if it's boring
If Pringles was half that smart his coup wouldn't have failed in the first place. Sometimes the simplest answer is the correct one, even if it's boring
If I wanted to put on my conspiratorial hat, I'd almost think that Putin allowed the mutiny to build into actually happening so he could identify compromised/opportunistic members of his regime...
If I wanted to put on my conspiratorial hat, I'd almost think that Putin allowed the mutiny to build into actually happening so he could identify compromised/opportunistic members of his regime and cut them out. He looks weak after the mutiny happens, but a round of internal bloodshed can help diminish that perception. Maybe in his paranoia he felt it was a gamble worth making, his perception versus clearing out traitors.
In all likelihood however, Putin simply put too much trust into a longtime associate and saw the Ukraine efforts as far and away. Perhaps the Putin of the early 2000's would've pulled a stunt like what I said above, but he's older now. This is the same Putin who started the whole boondoggle in Ukraine. All signs seem to point to him slipping, and not just a little.
Makes no sense to me either but we'll probably never know the truth.
Truth isn't something that generally comes out of the Russian government.
It's absolutely ridiculous that he stopped marching. The die was cast at that point.
There have been all these elaborate theories about how it was planned, or how it was a feint to get wagner troops into Belarus to open another front, but it seems it was just an incompetent idiot rashly starting something he couldn't finish.
Once he started on that road, the only outcomes were what's just happened (assuming the reports are accurate) or victory. What on earth did Lukashenko say to him? What could have possibly convinced him that there was a way to deescalate and get away with a slap on the wrist?
I don't think it was necessarily the case of an incompetent idiot starting something he couldn't finish. Prigo attempted to capture Shoigu in Rostov. Given the rivalry between Wagner and the MoD, that made some amount of sense: "He's in the area, let's revolt, capture the guy, force some concessions and/or make Prigo the new Minister, and then move on with the war." That didn't work. His Op failed and Prigo had to move, and yesterday. He had to do something now. Just going back to the front lines wouldn't work. Whether "drive on Moscow and see if we can't catch Putin" was plan B in case they didn't get Shoigu, or whether they hadn't seriously considered that contingency and had to improvise is anyone's guess, but I really don't think driving on Moscow was plan A, ever.
My completely uneducated and uninformed theories are:
a) He couldn't complete the march to Moscow. Russia was caught unprepared and ground units were mounting last-minute defenses but I believe if push came to shove the air force would come into play and bomb the living shit out of everything looking armed within a 10mile radius. I doubt Wagner had the resources to counter an air assault.
b) He's not dead (you know, like Elvis) because you don't play the game around Putin for so long only to then merrily take flights within Russian airspace like it ain't no thing. Either he's amazingly lucky and has been failing upwards for years, or he's savvy enough to know he's a target.
But like I said, completely uninformed opinions.
Edit: "been upwards" corrected to "been failing upwards".
If a person is dependable and does what their boss asks them, are they really failing upwards or just getting promoted?
If the MoD had any real complaint about the Wagner rebellion it was that the Wagners shot down several airplanes, that is, they had enough anti-air equipment to do that but they might run out of missiles if they fought the whole Air Force.
I think really though it is no easy to advance in a column of military vehicles. As a civilian the 600 miles from Rostov-on-Don to Moscow is a day’s drive and you can refuel with a gas credit card. Napoleon and Hitler learned advances on that terrain are not easy, remember how much trouble the Armed Forces had advancing on Kiev.
Because he miscalculated in the first place. By the time he realized how badly he’d miscalculated, he was in too deep. They weren’t going to manage to take Moscow. If they tried they’d absolutely die so better to take the tiniest sliver of hope and give up, hoping that maybe it wasn’t quite too late to survive.
What does Prigozhin get out of that? And it wouldn't explain Russia shooting down his plane today either (if that is actually what happened)
The video shows a plane just falling out of the sky supposedly with one fewer wing than a normal airplane has.
He fell out of the wingdowplane.
I'm not that convinced about that actually. Coups are always on a knife's edge in terms of timing etc. They're basically completely reliant on shock and awe to create a fait accompli. Wagner's fait accompli seems to have been intended to be capturing Shoigu in Rostov. After that failed Prigo was forced to move one way or another: Stand down (dooming himself and some co-conspirators, but probably not the average Wagner boot) or double down, risking a civil war that could kill millions of Russians, push the country into another decades long crisis and lose any gains in Ukraine.. He did a bit of both: Doubled down for a few hours, creating a somewhat credible threat of said civil war, and then took a deal. The options he had: (1) would lead to his death (2) would presumably be a bloody civil war that'd sooner or later see him dead too. I don't think he realistically had any chance given his starting position in Rostov. (3) a chance to live that does not involve slaughtering millions of Russians.
I can see why he took option 3. Even if we assume not a single altruistic thought. (2) really only works if you can make it happen quickly and cleanly. With his starting position in Rostov, he had to move. Probably only he and a few officers know whether they had actual plans for how to achieve a coup once they reached Moscow. Do they have people at the ready for all the things that need to happen? A media playbook to control the masses? A list of all the important buildings and persons they need to take? Are they confident they can grab Putin? With several hours notice? If not, are they confident they can convince Russian security services to switch sides or at least stand down? If so, what then? That's looking a lot more like a civil war than a coup if Putin escapes, which is likely. A civil war that Shoigu evidently didn't want to fight or didn't think he could win.
Note I'm taking the events up until Rostov completely for granted. Prigo had already unsuccessfully rebelled against Shoigu then, and is under pressure to move now to not suffer retribution. Whether the Shoigu/Rostov move was a good idea is anyone's guess, but I can kind of see how he maybe could've replaced him if he had caught him.
There are easier ways to do this. It just doesn't make any sense to have a fake mutiny.
It hurts his credibility, they shot down a helicopter, causes paranoia and panic, and even messes with the war in Ukraine. There's 0 way this was some super master plan. There's some odd stuff sure, and that's because we just don't know everything that's going on, but in no way does putin benefit from this fiasco.
According to Western intelligence, the FSB held their families hostage.
I think he realized it would be difficult for him to actually rule Russia and the kremlin. History empirically tells you that ir is one thing to gain power, a completely different one to hold the power. After the geenie was out of the bottle he saw that even if he would topple the regime he would most likely be targeted in the times to come. When Lukaschenko offered an escape he probably thought he had a way out of his predicament.
He had no shot of taking Moscow. If he actually started heading in they'd have bombed the shit out of him. His "coup attempt" was actually him and the Wagner mercenaries holding themselves hostage. Because Russia is undermanned for actually conducting their invasion of Ukraine, they can't just blow up a big chunk of their own forces and equipment and potentially create room for further mutiny or dereliction among their forces. But if it came down to it they'd have done it.
So they promised he could hang out in Belarus instead, but then eventually Belarus says "psyche" and kicks them out. He comes back to Russia and gets killed with no fuss.
A lot of the theories think he got threatened somehow and was blackmailed, but what if instead he got exactly what he wanted?
Often with negotiations with criminals a negotiator will offer things like taking care of loved ones instead of the criminal themselves, because they're going to jail either way.
What if Prigozhin negotiated for some price for someone else, got it paid out, and from then on knew he was a dead man walking, but chose to do it anyway?
Like, some western country's spy agency promised to do something in exchange for Prigozhin marching back to Russia to disrupt their military operations, and then afterward his job was done so he just tried to disappear, knowing the odds were low he'd actually get away.
In the long run, it was unlikely he could really take and hold Moscow. Trying to do a feint and then drop off the map was maybe a decent exit strategy if you assume his only goal was to screw up the military advance for a few weeks.
It's a longshot, but then again so is any guess from someone who wasn't involved.
I'm skeptical this was "accidental" in any capacity. Putin doesn't take kindly to mutineers...
Well the article does say that Wagner’s internal communications reported that the plane was shot down by Russian air defenses.
"You oopsie our AWACS, we oopsie you." - Pootin
TBH I think the original "revolt" was more planned and known at high levels than they admit - but the chaos of the theater (and not being willing to let the grunts in on things) caused much more damage to occur than initially planned, such as the helos and rare expensive AWACS; someone had to pay.
I don't think the coup was orchestrated, and I think this assassination is pretty good evidence that it wasn't.
The whole Ukraine War shows how far Putin's hubris has come. The fact that he wouldn't know that one of his henchmen was plotting against him is not really very surprising.
You can orchestrate a coup and then get rid of your buddy. Would that be surprising?
Well, that is just you and the rest of the planet. :-)
I'm equally skeptical that Prigozhin was actually on that plane. Can't trust anything out of Russia these days.
The opposition leader has tragically accidentally chopped his own head off while combing his hair...
He fell out of the highest window in Ruzzia...
:(
Relatively expected no? It was more strange than anything that he was seemingly getting away with an all out mutiny against Putin with minimal consequences.
"You come at the king, you best not miss."
An airplane is a bit of a shock though. Did they run out of windows to fall out of?
I think it's quite an old-school way of thinking. Very Cold War-era, in fact.
Aircraft have been utilized as targets of politically motivated groups and as a venue to assassinate (or attempt to assassinate) specific individuals from Trujillo to the president of Rwanda. Compared to commercial airliners, people on private planes are equally vulnerable but offer very limited collateral damage or surplus casualties. In either case there can also be a lot of plausible deniability for a plane crash, especially in a country that refuses to allow international investigators to view the scene.
Going back to WW2, taking out leadership while in the air was a major concern for all nations at war. There was at least one attempt at killing Hitler while he was onboard a plane (incidentally he would've been over Poland if the explosive had detonated). Famously, the USAAF shot down Isoroku Yamamoto's plane in the south Pacific. He was the commander of the Combined Fleet of the Imperial Japanese Navy and had been responsible for overseeing the attack on Pearl Harbor.
It's definitely not the first I have heard of it, although over the last five years, news of prominent russians falling from windows has been more frequent.
There is no way to have proof but I always had my doubts about this plane crash here in the US. A progressive leader, planning a run for president. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Wellstone
It's also a concern re autonomous cars.
What evidence do you have beyond a conspiracy theory that he was assassinated? The Wikipedia description of his death seems to pretty comprehensively show that shitty pilots were poorly flying a plane in a situation where bad pilots might be expected to crash.
Nothing beyond timing and who benefits. Politically motivated killings are not unknown here. See Dr. King's assassination. The MOVE massacre in Pennsylvania. The labor movement in the late 1800s and first half of the 20th century.
It's reported that Dmitry Utkin was also onboard, so probably a two birds or more with one stone scenario.
Shooting down an airplane lets him take out multiple key players at once instead of just one. Also I imagine it would be harder to arrange for the leader of a mercenary group to fall out of a window when he's likely on guard after leading an attempted coup compared to the usual politicians.
Alternatively, this actually IS a genuine accident, which no one will ever believe.
I want to see the alternate universe where there are all of these poorly maintained soviet era windows and Putin’s enemies are just really really unlucky.
At this point, even if they DO die in genuine accidents, no one will ever believe it
The Death of Stalin 2
He shot down Putin's aircraft so Putin shoots down his. Makes sense to me.
I guess I am a little surprised given that the coup was pretty successful and stopped for seemingly no reason, thought he might have struck a deal.
Worth noting that there's no confirmation of his death as of yet. BBC reporting "presumed dead," NYT reporting that his name was on the manifest of the crashed plane.
Yup. Putting my tin foil hat on, this seems like a win all around
I don't think it adds up.
Why not just kill him then? You get all of the upside and no threat of complications. Also, the immediate reactions to this news among the Russian military and online communities has been outrage -- that's still a hornet's nest Putin needs to be careful of not stirring up, and unlikely he'd risk that just to appear to 'save face' vs. legitimate revenge or maybe in response to more planning by Prigozhin/Utkin.
Lukashenko might be those complications? He brokered that deal. I don't think he usually has much to say in the Kremlin, but considering how Putin's war is going... I'm not sure what Lukashenko's Agenda here would be, but I could imagine that for Putin it might not be worth it to offend Lukashenko right now. Lukashenko could also plausibly be the reason why Prigo can't just be resurrected. But I'm entirely spit balling here and don't even believe what I'm insinuating is very likely at all.
Does anyone even understand how an idiot like Lukashenko could have ended a coup?
Is Lukashenko an idiot? From everything I've read, while he puts on a folksy face he's reasonably smart and able to keep Belarus from being absorbed into Russia, which isn't a small fear.
Not the faintest. It's kind of curious isn't it? What can he offer in terms of guarantees to both parties that would make them stand down? And what does he gain from it?
Though I think it's probably too reductive to think of the guy as an idiot. He's held on long enough, I think that's proof he knows his stuff as a dictator. And these kinds of deals are the bread and butter of dictators.
We know there was frantic dealmaking involved when the march toward Moscow was happening, and something convinced Prigozhin to abruptly stop the march. And it was widely speculated that Prigozhin being allowed to live was weakening Putin's tough-guy persona.
Yeah, that's a fair point, but that brings us to the next thing:
Could this same loyalty not have tipped Prigozhin off that this was going to happen? I don't think it really matters to Putin that Prigozhin is dead--just that he is out of the picture and that Putin's image is restored.
If Prigozhin is alive and pops up again, he surely knows he'll be assassinated by a polonium-tipped umbrella or something that leaves an identifiable corpse. It's in his best interest to stay dead.
It also probably doesn't matter to him that he's alive, at best it's probably a neutral proposition.
Prigozhin being alive while thought dead puts him in a position where he could further embarrass Putin at any point in time. If he timed it right, he maybe even be able to challenge him again. I just don't see how that exchange would be worth the risk to Putin unless he really valued keeping Prigozhin alive.
It’s interesting to watch the birth of a conspiracy theory live. Presumably western media wrote the headlines like that because they were still waiting on some kind of official confirmation, but wanted to break the story asap. Yet all over the internet you can read people seizing on the headline to say aha!
Of course, speculating that he faked his death would’ve been fun discussion regardless of the headline. Forgive me, this is just a continued interest of mine: we all think we should have access to real time, perfect information all over the globe, and can’t process my uncertainty in reporting.
I mean, it's not entirely unfounded. Prigozhin "died" in a plane crash once before, in 2019.
TASS reported that he was on the passenger manifest, citing the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency.
That's likely all the confirmation we'll ever receive, other than maybe eye witness accounts of him boarding the plane. Of course, these people do have body doubles as well.
I think it's likely he's dead, although it's possible it's a deception. I don't think Putin would be interested in having his death faked -- there's too much risk of blowback for no discernible gain. I could see Prigo faking his own death, but not like this. He'd need a sympathetic Pantsir crew and a valid cover story on why they happened to fire on his plane.
Yeah, I'd wager the simplest answer is probably true: in this case that Putin had him killed. But the whole situation has been so bizarre, so my trust is pretty low in any information/news regarding Prigozhin at this point.
Two months to the day of his attempted coup. Honestly, I'm surprised Putin waited this long.
Deplanestration.
Yeeeup. Not even remotely shocked, other than it took this long and Prigozhin seemed to think this wouldn't happen.
This is going to be a fascinating thing to research in decades when, maybe, more info comes out about exactly what happened and how, but it sure does just put a giant reminder to the world that while Putin can't seem to handle Ukraine, he sure as hell will kill anyone he deems fit.
I suspect Wagner is already setup to have a successor, and wouldn't be surprised if some of their higher command just happens to vanish around this time as well.
Dmitry Utkin was allegedly onboard as well.
He was the original Wagner Group frontman, when Prigozhin's ties were still just rumours. He's also where the group's namesake comes from, Wagner being his call-sign in the GRU.
I’m no expert on plane accidents, but the way the plane tumbles down to earth in the videos… makes it look like it experiences an explosion of some sort. If there’s a video of the missles hitting it, we’ll know for sure.
It’s not like Progozhin didn’t march on Moscow… Putin has a pretty huge reason to kill him and he killed so many opponents in the past.
I wonder who will head Wagner now, will this person be worse for humanity or better for Putin?
I think it's worth pointing out that Progozhin was not someone worth celebrating. There's some "enemy of my enemy" calculus and "what if"s we'll never really know the answers to, but both of these people are deplorable and it's hard to get too excited when they're at each other's throats.
Yeah, no tears over the person that levelled Bakhmut.
There's a video that is reported to be of the plane falling -- as much as I find it difficult to find much sympathy for the guy, watching its very long and slow descent makes me feel a bit sorry for him and others on the plane -- that's a LONG time to know that you're about to die.
That video make it look quite possible that everyone was already unconscious, if not dead.
Possible that the concussion of whatever took down the plane or the high G forces of the spinning knocked them out, but it appeared to me that the fuselage was intact, so it seemed possible to me that they were fully conscious for that minute of descent.
This is all happening the same week that Ukraine blows up five jets ‘deep within Russian territory’, along with the Russian Air Force general Surovikin being dismissed.
Bad times for the Russian air force.
This outcome seems pretty embarrassing for Lukashenko. He negotiated the truce, which was his way of saying “I’m not a stooge of Putin, I sit at the adult table”. But his brokering was exposed as a total farce here. This has to undermine him even more at home.
I don't understand. In what universe did Prigozhin think Putin wasn't going to kill him after nearly laying siege to Moscow? Why was he flying back and forth to Russia like everything was cool?
It was a flight from Moscow to St Petersburg.
Jesus, was he insane? Why did he think he could just hang out in Russia like that?
I would watch a Breaking Bad-style TV show about someone like Prigozhin. Not only do I not know historical facts (the creator of such a show would not know them either) but I cannot even imagine the motivations of people like that.
If Pringles was half that smart his coup wouldn't have failed in the first place. Sometimes the simplest answer is the correct one, even if it's boring
If this is true.. this is big. Big. Wont change anything for ukraine but the power environment in russia is looking a bit crazy
So the question still stands: who will try the next coup and how will that go? Echoes of the '91 Soviet Coup come to mind.
If I wanted to put on my conspiratorial hat, I'd almost think that Putin allowed the mutiny to build into actually happening so he could identify compromised/opportunistic members of his regime and cut them out. He looks weak after the mutiny happens, but a round of internal bloodshed can help diminish that perception. Maybe in his paranoia he felt it was a gamble worth making, his perception versus clearing out traitors.
In all likelihood however, Putin simply put too much trust into a longtime associate and saw the Ukraine efforts as far and away. Perhaps the Putin of the early 2000's would've pulled a stunt like what I said above, but he's older now. This is the same Putin who started the whole boondoggle in Ukraine. All signs seem to point to him slipping, and not just a little.
And that's why you should have finished your Sunday drive, bucko
Wow, didn't see that coming /s
At least they changed up the method a bit.