I just realized I haven't made a full post with Oscar predictions since January (did one for the Globes and one for the Guild). Well now that we're half-way through the year, here's where I think the current Oscar race stands:

Picture:

1. The Holdovers
2. Oppenheimer
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Barbie
6. Past Lives
7. The Zone of Interest
8. The Killer
9. Saltburn
10. Anatomy of a Fall

Director:

1. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
2. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
4. Denis Villenueve - Dune: Part Two
5. Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay:

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. Saltburn
4. Anatomy of a Fall
5. May-December

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Barbie
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Dune: Part Two
5. The Zone of Interest

Lead Actor:

1. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Barry Keoghan - Saltburn
5. Colman Domingo - Rustin

Lead Actress:

1. Margot Robbie - Barbie
2. Greta Lee - Past Lives
3. Natalie Portman - May-December
4. Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
5. Annette Bening - Nyad

Supporting Actor:

1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
4. Jesse Plemmons - Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Teo Yoo - Past Lives

Supporting Actress:

1. D'avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
4. Julianne Moore - May-December
5. Rosamund Pike - Saltburn

Cinematography:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Killer
5. The Zone of Interest

Film Editing:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part Two
4. The Holdovers
5. The Killer

Sound:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Killer
5. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part One

Original Score:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. The Zone of Interest
4. The Killer
5. Past Lives

Original Song:

1. "Dance the Night" from Barbie
2. "Quiet Eyes" from Past Lives
3. "More of Us" from Wish
4. "Gonna be You" from 80 For Brady
5. Original Song from Wonka

Production Design:

1. Barbie
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Oppenheimer
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Wonka

Costume Design:

1. Barbie
2. Oppenheimer
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Wonka
5. Killers of the Flower Moon

Hair and Make-up:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Guaridans of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. Renfield
5. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

VFX:

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Oppenheimer
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part One
5. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Animated Feature:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2. How Do You Live?
3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
4. Wish
5. Nimona

Have you watched any movies recently you want to discuss? Any films you want to recommend or are hyped about? Feel free to discuss anything here.

Please just try to provide fair warning of spoilers if you can.

I love hearing about obscure or forgotten films that people are passionate about. I was in a thread on Reddit, IIRC, and someone mentioned The Man From Earth. I just watched it for the first time and I can see its appeal.

I'm sure you have more than one. For me, a couple of favorites off the top of my head are Wristcutters: A Love Story and Wings of Desire. And some old timey classics that I rarely hear mentioned anymore are I Know Where I'm Going and The Lady Eve.

What's a guaranteed hit, not everyone's favorite, but anyone can enjoy? (i.e. maybe not 9 or 10, but no ratings below a 6)

Shawshank redemption is my #1 pick. Others up there i think would be the Sandlot & The prestige.

Have you watched any movies recently you want to discuss? Any films you want to recommend or are hyped about? Feel free to discuss anything here.

Please just try to provide fair warning of spoilers if you can.

Hey all. I’m sure there’s a lot of new users making their way to Tildes this week. Let’s share some Letterboxd profiles to get the community going. I guess I’ll be first! Follow me if you have similar taste and I’ll do the same: https://letterboxd.com/plo/

I managed to convince my wife to watch this one (She's not a fan of gore lol) and holy hell. I loved this movie and was absolutely floored (in a good way) with all of the Native representation on and off the screen. It works so well as a prequel and the whispers of Prey 2 could be soooo promising.
What did you all think of it?

Hey everyone!

I love a good horror/thriller type movie and tend to binge on them every few months. I am however behind on releases over the last year or so :<

I'd love to get some recommendations from the wider community to add to my list of must sees!

Thank you in advance!!

I recently acquired the criterion release of Stalker (1979), a film I have not seen since I was a teenager. I remember liking it back then, but I didn't appreciate how much it would simultaneously wash over me as well as work it's way into the back of my mind, like an eel of a tone poem.

For those who have not seen Stalker, it is a journey of three men into a mysterious and beautiful "Zone" in search of their deepest desires.
I full throatedly recommend. Gorgeous film.

While the symbolism has been thoroughly discussed elsewhere on the internet, a less talked about aspect (of this and other films) is how it makes the viewer feel.

For me personally, the three moments that most affected me on a visceral level all involve people lying down.
Why, I'm not sure.
But they are: The scene where The Stalker lays in the tall grass, I felt such a calm bliss as he soaked in the lush green nature of The Zone;
The scene where The Stalker sleeps on a tiny dry piece of ground in a large flooded canal, I felt a sense of sublime misery. The only thing I could compare it to is when you get suddenly awoken when you haven't had enough sleep, and have to go out into the cold early morning still nodding off, and nothing feels real;
and third is the lingering shot of the dog sitting guard over the entwined bodies near The Room.
I felt a profound longing sadness. I imagined that the entwined lovers died together in some relation to their deepest desire.

I really love films that wash over the viewer in this way like a tide, and I hope that some of you do as well.

Another film that has a similar aspect is Upstream Color (2013), and while the creative mind behind that film is....perhaps a mentally unwell abuser, I can't dismiss the art he has created. I guess my relationship with his work is complicated.

How do you Feel about stalker?

Are there any films that had a similar effect on you as this one did to me?

Always looking for recommendations!

For those of you who are new I usually post awards predictions from time to time. Some people seem to like it, at least when it was just a handful of active users.

Anyways these are predictions I currently have for “the guilds” meaning industry awards that are not the Oscar’s. Segmented by different unions. They usually are more populist than the Academy, due to many members being from the TV and commercial world. Whenever there’s an artsy contender that they avoid, the Academy nominates it anyway (Drive My Car, Triangle of Sadness, Phantom Thread being some recent examples that come to mind).

Producers Guild of America Awards (PGA):

1. The Holdovers
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Barbie
6. Past Lives
7. The Zone of Interest
8. The Killer
9. Saltburn
10. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part 1

Directors Guild of America Awards (DGA):

1. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
3. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
4. Denis Villenueve - Dune: Part Two
5. Greta Gerwig - Barbie

Writers Guild of America Awards (WGA):

Original:

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. Saltburn
4. May/December
5. Air

Adapted:

1. Barbie
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Dune: Part Two
5. The Killer

Screen Actor’s Guild Awards (SAG):

Ensemble:

1. The Holdovers
2. Barbie
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Oppenheimer
5. The Color Purple

Lead Actor:

1. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
2. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Colman Domingo - Rustin
5. Barry Keoghan - Saltburn

Lead Actress:

1. Margot Robbie - Barbie
2. Greta Lee - Past Lives
3. Natalie Portman - May/December
4. Zendaya - Challengers
5. Fantasia Barrino - The Color Purple

Supporting Actor:

1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
3. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. John Magaro - Past Lives
5. Dominic Sessa - The Holdovers

Supporting Actress:

1. D’avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
4. Julianne Moore - May/December
5. Taraji P. Henson - The Color Purple

American Cinema Editors Awards (ACE):

Comedic Editing:

1. Barbie
2. The Holdovers
3. Next Goal Wins
4. Poor Things
5. No Hard Feelings

Dramatic Editing:

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Past Lives
5. The Killer

The Little Mermaid opened this Memorial Day weekend. Pre-sales, being the tickets that people buy in advance, were looking strong. It looked like it would open to over 100 for the 3-day weekend, and 130 for the 4-day. Potentially the highest opening weekend for Memorial Day ever.

That didn't happen. While it had a strong opening day, it failed to keep up the pace for the rest of the weekend. Ultimately opening under 100 for the 3-day weekend. The expected casual audience, referred to as "walk-ups" didn't show up in the numbers that were expected (based on past live-action Disney films). Hollywood trades are seemingly ignoring this, most of them calling the opening weekend a success.

While the Domestic opening weekend is certainly not bad, it's worldwide opening weekend is terrible. Internationally the film opened behind Fast X's second weekend. It's acting closer to Dumbo, a big bomb for Disney in 2019, than any of the successful live-action Disney films. Domestically, also, the film is acting closer to Solo, another bomb, than Aladdin (which had amazing legs).

Why this happened is still being debated. Some say that having a black lead turned off a lot of the international audience, others say they were turned off from a lack of a big star in the film (like say Will Smith in Aladdin or Emma Watson in Beauty and the Beast). Whatever the case is for the international audience, it's clear that there was a total market rejection of the film. Domestically, it seems like casual audiences are experiencing a bit of fatigue with these live-action movies (perhaps due to all the bad ones going straight to Disney+).

And maybe, perhaps, Disney betting big on Disney+ in 2022 while the other studios started to refocus on theatrical, was a mistake. Maybe that's diluted the Disney brand in all forms.

But whatever it is, Disney now has two bombs on their hands. Ant-Man failed to make a profit and now Little Mermaid is unlikely to reach that as well (considering the huge 250 million dollar budget on it). And the rest of the year is not looking any better for them.

Disney went to Cannes with Indiana Jones and Elemental. Which we all assumed was a sign of confidence in the films. That ended backfiring as both Indiana and Elemental ended up rotten on RT. Now they have to deal with a negative reception for both films, on top of the fact that there was very little excitement for both to begin with. Pixar, and Disney animation as a whole, is now looking at back to back to back bombs (Lightyear, Strange World, and now Elemental). Indiana Jones had an inflated budget of 300 million and now looks like it won't break even either.

Haunted Mansion might surprise, but it's gonna be a tough ladder to climb considering the really big 150 million dollar budget.

The Marvels will need to be as well received as Guardians in order not to be Ant-Man'd out of existence, which most people are not expecting, especially as you need to watch two TV shows to understand it.

Wish could finally be a win for Disney's animation department, but considering the track record I wouldn't count on it.

It's really not looking good for Disney, what a fall considering the immense success they experienced in 2019. They really might just end up with one success this year (Guardians).