Joe Biden is the next President of the United States
Race called by Decision Desk HQ at 08:50 AM EST: https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324710866516905984
Other sources will follow as there is no path back for Donald Trump to win PA.
Update #1: Called by Business Insider
Update #2: Called by Vox (thanks @dubteedub)
Update #3: The Economist is coming as close as they can to calling it (explanation: https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1324860925745229824)
Update #4: The AP, NBC, CNN and ABC News have called the race. It's over.
Update #5: New York Times, BBC
Update #6: Meanwhile in Trump's fantasy land
Update #7: Fox News has called it as well.
As much as I would love this to be true, we are looking at weeks of recounts (not to mention some states may not even finish counting the first time today.) Recounts will only amount to a few hundred fraudulent / invalid ballots, like any other election (if that) but I can't see a universe in which we know the next president until way closer to January.
This is every election. It takes weeks to even certify results. 2016 had it's own recounts that were largely ignored.
But the race is always called long before then, because the process shaking out never changes more than a few hundred votes.
Axios had a good article today explaining how unlikely it is for recounts to change anything: Trump's odds of winning through a recount are nearly impossible
I suggest reading the whole thing, but this is probably the key quote:
It always takes weeks or months for official numbers. By the end of the day we will know the result with the same certainty that we usually do on election night.
Some of those states not finished counting will probably be recounted anyway with 0.5% being the bar for a recount in penn.
If Biden continues getting the remaining known ballots in PA at the rate he has been since yesterday, he's going to be up by a full point or so when all is said and done. Nate Silver thinks he'll be up by 3 once provisional ballots are counted. That won't trigger an automatic recount, but the Trump campaign can force a recount regardless of the margin at their expense. It'd be practically useless, but I expect Trump is going to do it to delay having to concede as long as possible and further muddy the waters.
Georgia will probably be recounted, but Biden doesn't need it. The margin in Wisconsin is pretty small, but even if he won there, Trump would still have to win recounts in three other states to get over 270, which is laughable.
Maybe not right this second, but I think it'd be better if people started considering the race over so as to not assist Trump's narrative that the result is still in question. It's not. There's something to be said about Biden padding his electoral vote count in case there are faithless electors, but I don't think we should be treating that as a legitimate path for Trump to win.
Biden is likely to win by 1-2% in PA.
PA will be well outside the recount margin by the time they have processed all the mail-in and provisional ballots.
America really need to revamp their voting system.
So say we all. We came really close in 1969, but then the Democrats filibustered it.
I'm not familiar with that one; what happened?
It was the Bayh-Celler amendment, introduced after Nixon swept the electoral college in '68 with only a narrow margin in the popular vote. It was filibustered by conservative southern Democrats. (The southern strategy that flipped the parties and gave us the hardcore right-wing gop we know and hate today was still nascent at that time.)
It seems to me this proposal would be completely irrelevant in the current circumstances, as both candidates have over 40% of the vote. Has there really not been a serious proposal to make the election more proportional to actual votes?
If any candidate had over 40% of the popular vote, the election would be decided by popular vote—i.e., there simply wouldn't be a runoff. 2000 and 2016 would then have gone the other way.
If no candidate took over 40% (i.e. a popular third party candidate took at least 20%), there would be a runoff between the top two candidates. The only such election in US history was 1860, which Lincoln won with 39.8% of the popular vote.
I don't know the full story, but to me this is the big reason the 2-party FPTP system is so shitty.
Sure the Electoral college is working in the Republicans favour right now, but I'm sure some Democratic leaders may be less likely to abolish it, because it might favour them in the future!
The one possible "upside" to the Republicans seemingly pushing things to the limit the last 2-4 years is that it might force the Democrats to actually do something about things like that, which could help lead to more diverse parties.
The race has been called by the Associated Press, CNN, NBC and ABC News pretty much at the same time: Biden wins Pennsylvania, and thus the presidency.
Edit: Someone got the exact times here interestingly: https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1325117993702068225
If the scorched earth "We were cheated/ election was stolen" narrative takes hold in the MAGA base and the gambit fails ie Biden is the President in January -- does that suppress GOP vote in the next election?
"What's the point of voting if the Democrats just cheat again."
Not saying such a lack of institutional faith is good for a stable democracy -- it most definitely isn't -- but as long as its contained to a small subset of GOP base it could have GOP strategists looking at this train wreck and slamming their heads into a desk?
Edit: To expand on my point, I don't think this affects the rank-and-file GOP voters. But Trump turned out a lot of first time voters and people who don't engage with the political process. Hard to see how this fraud talk doesn't just shove them right back down into being disenfranchised non-voters.
And there lies the key question that is hard to answer right now. If it flares and then fades into a small enough fire, it will smolder for a long while, but the GOP as an institution will move on. If it flares and sustains, it will transform the GOP forever, more so than they already are.
I'm betting on the latter. Trump is a symptom, not the cause. The myriad of economic and social issues that enabled him to be elected have been a part of the US for a long, long time. They're not going away, and they're certainly not going away in just the next few months. The only question is if we're going to continue to see the same symptom (centered around Trump) or if it's going to take a new form.
Trump has been insanely successful as a ratio of competence to achievement. He became the President of the United States when by all rights he should have been laughed off stage and discarded as quickly and with as much thought as you discard a used tissue. I have to believe that there are political players who are watching this very very closely to extract the "magic" out and use it to empower a new set of players who will mimic a lot of Trumps behaviors, but with actual purpose behind them. Which is frankly the most terrifying thing I can think of.
This is an excellent and highly topical essay.
Vox has also called it - https://twitter.com/voxdotcom/status/1324711652957315080
It seems like most of the networks are waiting for a few more batches of results to come in for PA to break the recount threshold, which is just a matter of another hour or two most likely.
Honking and cheering in the street!! Pots and pans and noisemakers!! Heads out of windows!!
I'm so happy for all of you! Came a little too close for comfort. I really can't wait till I don't hear the asshat talk ever again.
Literally honking and cheering in the streets. We're finally getting a break from shit.
I'm not American, but even I am feeling some catharsis right now.
To the Americans who fought against voter suppression, disenfranchisement, and intimidation, thank you for all of your hard work and congratulations. May it continue into the future for the sake of fairness and democracy.
a Canadian who super doesn't want to live next to a military superpower regressing into open fascism)
As a european, I'm feeling an immense amount of catharsis at this moment.
Here's the thing: I've been thinking Biden will win since August (my previous bet was on Warren). I've been way more pessimistic than others when predicting votes, and called Trump correctly in 2016. On Tuesday, it became clear Biden would win and I've been reasonably certain since then. I've been watching Trump melt down over the past few days, admittedly feeling quite a bit of catharsis just watching Biden speak yesterday for example.
And yet, seeing it live on CNN, seeing it called, seeing people accepting: That, right there, was the gigantic moment of relief.
Trump's first 3 years were gigantically bad, but in 2020 he amplified a shit year like nobody else could have. His actions have had a worldwide impact because, as it turns out, being POTUS has a massive fucking impact on the rest of the world, no matter how much people want to say that it is not as powerful a position as we make it out to be.
The idea of seeing the light at the end of the shit-tunnel is … wow, it feels good. Seeing him lose nearly all the support he got around the time he became GOP nominee, in a matter of days (then a matter of hours), what a relief. This guy could have triggered a coup, and yet all he did throughout the election was what he was best at: fuck all other than whining.
Its is over, its is done
It'd be tempting to say that that's it for Trump, but I honestly can't imagine MAGA dying down for at least another full decade. Unless Biden comes in and does some straight up miracle work and makes everyone's lives objectively better (and let's face it, nothing that drastic will ever happen), people will still complain, say he's doing a terrible job, etc. It'll be just as much of a fight in the next election cycle, and the one after that, and probably the one after that too.
I’m so freaking relieved. Congratulations to American democracy.
If I may shitpost a minute, but this vid has me rolling.
This is the one that still has me rolling:
You guys missing the best one: https://twitter.com/Soapmoine/status/1324286193106898944
As someone else I saw pointed out when this was posted: as Trump's spiritual advisor, that woman is paid from our tax dollars. Truly horrifying imo.
🤣 And for those who haven't seen the original clip or are unaware of who that lady is:
Edit: Also related, TIL that the BBC has a section of their site where they post news articles in pidgin English for their West African/Nigerian readers: https://www.bbc.com/pidgin/tori-54827034
I have a very large grin on my face right now.
DBZ - https://twitter.com/TrollGamingLive/status/1324145788851769350
The Associated Press has the official say when it comes to calling the United States' presidential election, no?
I don’t think any news organization has any official capacity here. The official certification of vote counts will come from the various sources (e.g., Sec. of States, Governors, etc.) Ballotopedia has a list here:
The timing is a few days / weeks depending on state law
Technically, the two candidates are the ones who have the official say; and if there's disagreement then the law comes into play.
The AP is most conservative in terms of calls. It's up to news networks whether they want to call it or not. Given how the trump base is disputing the legality of the votes, it might make sense not to paint yourself as a target.
By what metric is AP conservative? They're the only other organization besides Fox News to call Arizona early, a call that looked deeply uncertain until just a few minutes ago, and may still prove to be incorrect.
Conservative in the non political sense of the word. And they are extremely conservative, the arizona call was weird.
I understood the meaning of the word conservative, but I don't have any other context besides the calls they made in this election, and based on that Arizona call alone calling them conservative seems weird.
Their Arizona call was an abnormality; they are usually the last ones to call states. I would not judge their track record based on that one call alone.
As was said twice, conservative as in cautious.
I’m not Adys, but I read it as conservative as in institutionally cautious or reserved, not politically conservative.
That part was clear. What wasn't clear was how an organization that called Arizona so early could be considered cautious or reserved.
If you knew someone who ate thousands of meals and never had hot sauce on their food, except one time, you would say "this person doesn't eat hot sauce".
Making one call early does not make them not conservative at making calls. They are most certainly conservative at making their calls.
Just an update on this: I'm hearing AP will call PA once it's above .5 percent margin (35k votes lead roughly)
The reddit thread for this has over 9000 awards and 318 thousand upvotes
I personally don't think the definitive nature of the headline is warranted/justified quite yet given the fact that neither of these sources are official in any capacity, and so as yet these are just predictions. Even if they are very likely correct predictions by reputable organizations, it's still a bit much, IMO. And honestly, I am seriously tempted to change the headline to "Joe Biden predicted to be the next President of the United States" as a result. Thoughts?
edit: Changed it for now. Can always be reversed later if more people disagree.
please label this comment as offtopic so it doesn't detract from more on-topic discussion
I just want to point out that Twitter named seven outlets as able to call results on the election and that included Decision Desk HQ.
I'm fine with the change but I think it should be reversed once called by at least one cable channel. Otherwise you might have to wait until December :)
Yeah, that's totally fair and absolutely makes sense. Let me know when that happens and I will change it back. :)
Called by AP, CNN and NBC.
I have some bad news. He is still going to be all over the news cycle for quite some time, and, if he is somehow in decent health in 4 years, there is a very real possibility he will try to run again.
Worse, his children might take up the mantle: consider a 2024 Donald Trump Jr campaign, a man who's equally divisive but not addled by brain worms.
I agree this is a definite possibility. Someone is going to try to take up the Trump mantle.
Hypothetically, Is it possible for him to run from prison?
In the US, you can indeed run from prison, like Eugene Debs did.