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Will Microsoft want to introduce a subscription fee to their Windows OS in the future?
Just had a chat with friends about the possibility and how it would likely be introduced.
Paraphrased into the following;
2.99$/Month
OEM installs have a 2 year license
Upgrades are free for the first year (from 11 to the new)
Comes with Office 365 and AI functionality to soften the blow
What are your thoughts on this?
It appears to be something they are actively working on, and have even demoed publicly.
They cite a service called "Windows 365", whose name follows the same convention as other subscriptions they offer like "Office 365".
Wow, that may actually push me to learn Linux. The enshittification enshittifies more and more each day
To be fair, you only have to actually learn Linux if you're a power user etc. If you only use a browser, an office suite, Steam, Teams/Zoom, Spotify, Paint, et cetera, there's really almost nothing for you to learn.
Some time ago, for a while, I gave my dad my old thinkpad with Linux Mint installed on it. I had changed the skin to look more similar to Windows XP. My dad is fairly technologically illiterate, and he didn't notice at all that the laptop was not actually running Windows, because everything he needed was just there, and in some cases, already preinstalled by Mint.
Unless you really need to use the terminal to do something more "custom" or whatever, I wouldn't really say the average user will notice the difference that much, especially with a stable and user-friendly distribution, like Mint. All our hardware and peripherals so far have been plug-and-play; most software they'd already been using for years is basically the same; VLC, Libreoffice, Chrome, etc. With Steam's Proton being released, even (Steam) gaming has been more or less "click and play" in the last years. Installing new software can be done via a GUI "app store" handed to you by your distribution, so even then, you still don't need to use the terminal
Of course, granted, the parity is still not 1:1, and you will sometimes run into issues if your configuration is fairly unusual or if you need to use proprietary software that's explicitly not supported on Linux-based distros. But, if my technologically (mostly-)illiterate parents can get shit done without "pain" or confusion, I believe anyone else can
Well, until a major OS upgrade renders your machine unbootable.
I've had this happen with Ubuntu and Fedora, multiple times, on different machines. The fix was usually pretty easy, for me, usually just dropping to a TTY and fixing a mangled x config file or re-installing the Nvidia driver. But the point is, this happens way more frequently than with Windows or macOS, so I never feel comfortable actually recommending Linux to my non-tech savvy family.
Yeah this. I especially have trouble just getting sound to work with Linux installs, which I also hear is kind of a persistent problem especially with how many different setups exist for managing audio on Linux. I'm sure most Linux users just put the time aside into editing config files and running terminal commands to get their sound in order, but as a casual user running into my choice of default playback devices getting reset after shutdowns or random popping sounds occurring on clean installs of "beginner-friendly" distros, it's hard to do something as simple as listen to music while using a word processor on Linux for me.
Or if you want your middle click to function similar to how it does in Windows. Or if you want actually good drivers that work and are functional.
I like Linux, but it's still pretty half baked as far as usability goes. Whenever I use Linux, I find myself spending far more time configuring it and fucking with it than I do actually using my computer for what I want it for.
This makes sense when you look at how linux is made. Most of the money being poured into the operating system is done so by big companies that aren't using it as a consumer-oriented desktop operating system. They're using it for servers, embedded devices, and super computers. Features that support these use cases get the most investment.
Same experience here with my tech illiterate mother-in-law. She didn't want to pay for a Windows license (and was afraid to crack it), so I installed her Ubuntu. I think that PC lasted her 6-8 years, I just installed updates once in a while. It just worked.
Most of what your average user needs nowadays is in a browser anyway.
Basically what it comes down to is Linux is simple as long as your computing needs are simple.
You might have to unlearn some things as a poweruser, like the tendency to install apps as .exes or install drivers from the internet.
It's honestly kind of surprising that people still think that Linux is hard to use. It's been this easy since at least around 2005, when I switched my grandmother to Ubuntu and it actually eliminated all of the issues she was having with Windows and it's poor stability and security at the time, which meant that my job playing tech support for her practically went away until her laptop physically broke down.
I agree with everything you said, and wanted to note that Linux is even easier nowadays with the current AI landscape -- it is not hard whatsoever to ask ChatGPT how to do what you want to do on Linux and have it work pretty quickly. Usually if I get an error, I pass it the error and it self-corrects. It is only fairly complicated code where it can become somewhat overwhelmed and incapable of self-correction.
I have a docked laptop with a Display Port output and wireless Logitek KB+M. When I tried booting a Linux live USB, every single peripheral broke and the internal wifi adapter had no drivers, so I couldn't fix any of them.
I started dual booting Linux Mint a few months ago after my hard drive nearly died on me. Initially, I just wanted an operating system I could boot off a USB in case my hard drive completely failed, but after an adjustment period, the only thing I boot into Windows for anymore is Excel.
Same, And once Python in Excel is available in 0365 I won't even do this anymore
What is 0365? When I search for it, I only see things about Office 365. I still need Excel because I'm a power user and Libre Office just isn't quite there yet.
It's indeed Office 365.
I think the web version of excel is also for free if you have an outlook/hotmail account.
But it won't have VBA, hence I'm personally waiting for the python implementation
I seriously doubt the claim that Microsoft would actually pivot to only providing Windows on rented PCs in the cloud. It just doesn't make any sense, and it would kill most of their operating system business overnight.
There are use cases where such a service makes sense, and it's easy to offer since the infrastructure already exists providing this for Windows Server. So I can see why they are building out a consumer-oriented version of that. But it will not replace real desktops and laptops.
It is a pretty wild claim, for sure. It just lines up with how popular subscription based services are getting these days. Just gives me some pause
I’m not OP but I totally get that. The number of services I’ve seen make choices where I’m like “oh that instantly loses me as a customer, they would never” and then they go and do it anyway, has certainly surprised me a few times in recent years.
But ultimately I think babypuncher is correct — Microsoft may add subscription-based-cloud-OS as an option, but I don’t see them taking away the pay-once model as an option any time soon.
Windows 365 is specifically an offering as a part of Microsoft 365 (what Office sits under) it is just limited to enterprise customers.
That no longer exists as a name of the product, it's "Microsoft 365" now. That may also point in the same direction?
I think they may just make windows cost-free. Then they'll remove the ability to disable ads, tracking, and any document or picture you create will be AI fodder for them. But they might keep a subscription plan for business versions so those customers don't jump ship to other platforms as quickly.
They're already halfway there with Windows just having the watermark on non-activated copies. They could easily turn that into a Windows Lite experience.
Considering they gave pirated copies of Windows 7 free upgrades to Windows 10 and a HWID license, they literally do not care whether or not you're paying for it.
What matters to Microsoft is that you use it, so they've removed most roadblocks and only left the watermark and the background change restriction, and they really don't bother going after activators like Massgrave.
Maybe today. Tomorrow is not guaranteed when shareholders demand continuous growth.
Even the watermark can be removed super easily. They don't care anymore
Oh good. I was out of the loop on activators and was still using an old KMSPico -which somewhat surprisingly still works- but I know they stopped developing that a while ago.
Good to know the alternative.
Yeah, I like them because they're fully opensource (they're on GitHub which is a bit ironic) and they're still updating the activator. Also works with Office which is nice (haven't pirated Office in a long time though, I have 365 via my university, and otherwise the free online version is adequate for my needs).
To be honest part from the ai(and this is likely coming) this could also be already seen as the state of the os on the home version. I don't think it is actually possible to disable this with standard user controls(and fully disable this at all).
I can completely imagine it being way more blatant and getting truly locked down in a version going even further than Windows S though.
"OS as a Service" sounds very lucrative from an OS vendor perspective!
I think they already have something called Windows as a service for enterprise users.
But if they really go ahead and do this for everyone, I think the only folks who will embrace that will be hardcore MS fans who are stuck with their tooling. Rest will switch to Ubuntu or Mint.
However, the backlash from open source community will be massive if that happens, I imagine Nadella isn't the kind of guy who will ever let that happen.
I've been a pretty hardcore PC gamer for decades, and I feel like I've had to put up with a LOT from Windows, more and more so with every OS generation that passes. But if they did this, it would be the last straw. I've already been experimenting with converting some spare gaming laptops in our house to Linux ever since I got my Steam Deck and realized just how far that OS has come in that theater. And I've been very, very satisfied with how these converted laptops have held up as Linux gaming machines, each gaining significant performance boosts after nuking Windows.
Heck. Who knows. Maybe I'll just go ahead and do it anyway. I'm really, really tired of every dang piece of software turning into yet another completely unnecessary subscription service.
The average person likely won’t care if it is a subscription or not. They will pay for it just as they do for Netflix or Amazon Prime. If they do care about price, but aren’t technical, they would likely switch to a Chromebook. Linux distros are still “too hard” for an average person, although if SteamOS is reformatted to be a general-purpose OS, that may change.
God that would be nice. My PC is 85% for gaming, 10% for streaming local content and 5% for web browsing, bill paying, etc. Cutting out all the bloat Microsoft keeps forcing for a (in theory) light weight OS where I could do that other 15% would be the dream.
I get your point but there are also many power users who like to actually have some freedom or control over their OS, even in the Windows world.
By ignoring such users, Microsoft might increase their subscription revenue but at the cost of massive fall in user base. Heck, even Macs will become lucrative at that point! Considering OSX will be a proper OS and not subscription based one.
I doubt that power users outside of enterprise settings make up a significant proportion of MS’ revenue or userbase. And even in enterprise, the bundling of Windows, Office, Teams, Sharepoint, and PowerBI together (all things we use together) would make things very hard to switch over.
I remember someone saying DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS.
If you chase away the power users, who is going to develop 3rd party software? Without 3rd party software, windows will eventually whither like a Wii U.
What percent of power users are also independent devs that build a major third-party software? I would imagine that most simply work for a major software company, which would have incentives/inertia toward Microsoft.
Additionally, increasing amounts of software is being delivered over browser. A lot of our site’s software is moving from things like HCL Notes, FileMaker Pro, etc to something delivered in Chrome or Edge.
I'm kinda baffled by the idea that major software companies would push their developers towards Windows. While Microsoft has made a bunch of strides in the right direction with stuff like WSL, development on Windows has been a worse experience than on Mac or Linux for quite a while. Even basic shit like running docker is far easier on anything but Windows. Plenty of companies who give Windows laptops to employees in other positions will give Macbooks to their developers for that reason. Software devs are probably the one role where I'd be more surprised to see someone using Windows on their work laptop than Linux.
While they may use Linux on their computer, ultimately those working at major software companies are developing software for Windows.
Ah okay, I misunderstood what you meant in your comment then. I would counter that a lot of devs these days are building software that runs in the cloud on Linux servers, but your point is definitely taken.
How does that play out? Something like ChromeOS Desktop that's centered around a Browser but can easily swap into Big Picture Mode? Desktop mode is something of the weak link for SteamOS, so I'm a little surprised there hasn't been more work done in that area, but if the whole draw of Steam Deck is the console experience, tuning the bit only for power users won't help the main draw.
Is your first question in reference to SteamOS or ChromeOS?
SteamOS, how does it pivot from the console gaming backbone to general use?
It's all the same, steam just acts like/is the DE in gaming mode. Desktop mode is KDE. There is only one system user and steam autoboots, so if you're in desktop mode and logout, steam will just start a new gaming mode session.
My hunch is that they would make a version (a sub-distro?) that would be a bit more tuned to desktop mode (I suspect closer to the Windows model versus the ChromeOS one), but still gaming-focused (since that’s where the money and users are).
Valve can and should break into this market. They're uniquely positioned on so many fronts to expand as a software company, but the kind with ethics that support the user's experience.
If ChromeOS vs SteamOS starts heating up, I imagine other vendors might start hopping in. I know I personally wouldn't mind paying for open-source development to make a distro well-supported and sustainable. And if it's cheaper than a Windows subscription then at least a portion of average consumers will likely consider switching.
Maybe, but $3/month is way off on the price. That’s $36/year. What you are saying is basically a premium version of Microsoft 365, which is $70/year or $100/year for 5 people.
$36/year would be in line with the price you used to pay for upgrade licenses ($100 every three years for a new version of Windows).
Personally I wish they would just go back to charging for new major versions. I don't have a problem paying for a commercial proprietary OS as long as it's stable and works as it's supposed to. The expectation that it should just be free in perpetuity is why ads and tracking have been getting shoved into it for the last 10 years.
My own reasoning stems from the absurd amount of users Windows has, siphoning 3$/month from all of them would be such a large sum of money it wouldn't even matter if it were 'way off the price'. Also take into account that 3rd world countries and countries like India don't have a very high income level. And subfees are guaranteed. You can't just not decide to use Windows for a month like say, Netflix or Spotify.
My thought on this? I use Linux since around 2010. I don't have single need to use Windows. My answer is kinda obvious, isn't it?
To add something to discussion - recently I did reintall on relatove's PC. Had Windows 10, I swapped moherboard, CPU, RAM and added one SSD and did clean install. Since I forgot which version he got, I selected Home. Later, after it didn't activate through his Microsoft account, I had to reassemble the old PC and have a look at the licence. Of course, he has Pro. So I went for clean install on new hardware selecting Pro this time. And what do you know? It didn't activate either. I know you have to do some clicking around to let Windows know you are on new hardware but this led nowhere. Finally I found that there is hanging Windows 10 Home activation-attempt on this very hardware but since I formatted the drive to install Pro, I couldn't boot into it anymore. So I was stuck being unable to boot into Home install to try to remedy this and unable to activate Pro. Guess how this ended? Yes, Ubuntu. I know, I could have gotten on hotline and try to do something with it. But it was Sunday, I spent a few hours trying stuff and was fed up already. And guess what? Said relative uses the PC as if it were running Windows - he can read web, watch movies, listen to music, play games...
If Microsoft wants to make OS that acts up like this in paid subscription model, I can only wish them luck - they're gonna need it.
But let me make a prediction here: If Microsoft does it, people will be furious about it but majority of them (90%+) will pay anyway.
People are unteachable about this stuff. Have a look at gaming industry where microtransactions make so much money... Or movies where you have many different providers and many people pay for a few of them at once... If people are not going to say "No", they will get what they deserve.
I have a legit Windows license but swapped my motherboard so it didn't kick in. I found a link to a reputable script on Github and my Windows was activated in about a minute. I'm not calling anyone.
You could probably install with a local account, in my experience Windows 10 is quite permissive. There's an option for a no license install. I never heard of someone failing to boot because of licensing, it usually just turns Windows on a very weak form of nagware. You can essentially use Windows forever without ever noticing the restrictions it imposes.
He definitely could have used Windows with that "Please activate Windows" overlay. The OS is very permissive if you don't have license.
Ain't it sad that you have to search for Github script to be able to use OS that you bought? He has the license, it just can't be activated by normal means. And since he runs Linux for quite some time already and didn't find single use where he would need Windows back, I'm not installing it ever again. I'd rather spend my time (and sanity) elsewhere.
But thabks for heads up with the script. It may come in useful in the future. This isn't the only PC that has/had Windows around me.
In my opinion, they need to offer something truly valuable. For the average consumer, AI and recall aren’t particularly impressive—their effectiveness depends largely on user skill.
The current AI tools are predominantly text-based. Most people I talk to are using AI for tasks like writing emails and reports. That’s the main application right now.
I’ve been challenging myself to dive deeper into Unix-based systems, and Linux Debian has become my go-to. Thanks to Steam and Proton, you can play most of your games on it too.
Nvidia recently released their latest drivers for Linux, likely in response to Microsoft and Qualcomm’s new Co-Pilot PCs that are exclusive to their chips.
Yeah I've been using Win11 on one of my PC's for a while now and am not enjoying it as much as Win10. It's just in the way too often. I've been thinking about learning Linux more and more over recent years, and a move like this would absolutely push me over the edge. Even unavailable or occasional ads in the main UI at this point would make me switch. Especially with companies like Framework and Steam really supporting Linux now.