Was just driving through a town in southern Manitoba and pulled over to take a break and saw these tiny homes: https://i.imgur.com/hG9NAGR.jpeg

Tiny homes have always intrigued me so I talked to the owner. Its in a trailer park and this was a lot that was available for development so they had 16 tiny homes built in three sizes. The smallest is a 510 sf one bedroom, then a slightly larger one bedroom and the biggest one is a 920 sf two bedroom.

They are "modular" homes which means they were manufactured in a factory a couple of hours away and trailered into the site. But despite the fact they travelled by trailer and that they sit on screwpiles instead of a foundation, they are fully built as regular homes.

Its cold here in winter (down to -40c) so the homes are super insulated with about 12" of insulation in the floor and ceiling and 6" in the walls with another 2" of foam insulation on the outside walls. They are completely heated by the mini split system with the addition of a convection electric heater in each room to keep them warm in the coldest part of winter. Amazingly in a place where my own bills for electricity can hit $250 in winter without heat, the most the owner said she paid was $80 for electricity including heat.

The interiors look like any regular home only smaller:https://i.imgur.com/aFufGMI.jpeg and definitely dont give the same vibe as a mobile home. It feels like a house with small rooms.

So far the 2 bedroom units are selling fairly well but the one bedrooms arent moving as easily. Part of the problem was covid. In this town a 'starter' home can easily be 350k and they were hoping to sell these from 80k to 120k. But during covid everything skyrocketed from materials to moving costs and the least expensive unit is now 175k and the biggest one is 220k. Add on the 350 a month for lot rent, which includes yard care/shovelling, and its pushing the envelope of what most would consider "affordable" anymore but there's not much they can do now to bring the price down.

Buyers so far tend to be those who are looking for tiny easy to care for space: a widow who sold her house and wants something small she can leave and go travelling, a guy who works for a railroad who's only home one week a month, a new immigrant family who are just happy to own something rather than pay the same amount in rent.

I applaud them for having a vision and actually pursuing it. There are some kinks to work out and it would be great if the prices could drop significantly but at least its an alternative to renting or buying an older mobile home. Its one of the first tiny home communities Ive seen up close and I came away with a positive impression. I think its going to be a great little community of tiny home lovers.

Wife and I are going through the home buying process in what most people would call a low cost of living area. For reference, homes are about 180-400k where I live in New York State.

I heard the horror stories but I had no idea how bad the issue is. I'll get to that in a minute.

I am curious what's going to happen with housing. Because on one hand, it seems like it's going to continue to rise until there is genuinely no such thing as middle-class home ownership. On the other hand, I see some troubling signs that remind me of a bubble.

The housing market will continue to be unaffordable
-I keep hearing that it's a supply issue. That we need to double the number of houses for things to get better. I also hear this isn't happening and that immigration is a factor. Sounds like a dog whistle but I'm curious if there is any truth to this.

-Other developed nations are worse. Many have 40-50 year mortgages and some countries even have multi-generational mortgages. This shows that it could get worse.

-Companies and wealthy individuals trying to make us all rent forever. Of course they would like nothing more and they'll probably keep working on this.

The current market is not sustainable

-There is a feeding frenzy on every single home that goes for sale in my area. Total shit boxes with sagging roofs are selling no problem and way above asking.

-The bank approved my wife and I for way too much money. We have student loans and daycare costs. The amount they approved us for would absolutely put us in the negatives every month. I thought that wasn't supposed to happen anymore. It feels strange and reckless for the banks to do that. For reference, we make about 100k/year combined but student loans and childcare take up a significant chunk of that. They approved us for $300k to get a home. We could get a $2400/mo* mortgage, which immediately wipes out 50% of our take-home pay. We ran a budget and even avoiding any purchases that aren't literal necessities, we would be running a deficit every month. We could never buy a shirt, a baby toy, a makeup product, a movie ticket, or even a pair of shoes and we would still be in the negative. Nevermind what would happen if one of our very modest, very used vehicles needed to be replaced or repaired. Obviously we didn't bid anything near 300k on any home. Wife's mom offered to front some inheritance money (give my wife some money now and then just leave the inheritance to her sister to make up for it) and we weren't even close still.

-When did a married nurse and teacher become completely priced out of the market? Is that a sign of a normal and healthy market? Now, to be fair, my wife could increase her salary if she wanted to go back to working in the emergency room. She doesn't want to do that while we have a baby at home and I understand that completely. But you would think we would be able to afford something.

I am clearly speaking from a position of relative privilege here. I recognize that. I grew up in a foreclosed and auctioned home that was old and small. My parents moved to an economically depressed town to get that house because they had no money and no help. There was no "borrowing a few grand from an inheritance" for them and if my wife wasn't in the picture that would never be an option for me either. I think my wife and I are doing a lot better than many other people in this area. What are couples who work at Amazon doing? Just saying fuck it and renting forever?

Anyway, I'm half venting and half asking. What is the actual endgame here for Americans? What happens next?