The academy expanded the line-up after snubbing The Dark Knight in Picture in favor of Oscar bait The Reader. They received so much backlash that they reverted to nominating 10 nominees each year, something that hadn’t been done since the 40s.

While there are now multiple Best Picture nominees each year, each year there are a designated “Top 5.” As in the films that would have made the cut pre-expansion. Here’s a list of possible Top 5 movies, there’s a lot of argument about which movie was which but this is generally what is accepted/kind of what I think.

2009: The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Inglorious Basterds, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire, Up in the Air

All 5 movies were nominated for Director. 4 of the 5 were nominated for Film Editing (another mark of a top 5 film) and all except Avatar were nominated for Acting and Screenplay. Avatar got nominated in almost all the technical categories.

2010: The King’s Speech, The Social Network, The Fighter, Black Swan, True Grit

Barely misses the cut: Inception

Inception, unfortunately, undeperformed with nominations missing both Directing and Film Editing, and was never in contention for acting nominations. It misses in favor of True Grit which was a late-breaker and over-performed in nominations.

2011: The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, The Help

Barely misses: Moneyball

The Help arguably underperformed with nominations but it was such a big hit that I’d imagine it would still make Best Picture.

2012: Argo, Lincoln, Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook, D’jango Unchained

Misses: Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables

Zero Dark Thirty started dying out throughout the season, and Les Mis was more of a British thing. D’jango had a lot of passion and ended up becoming the front-runner in Original Screenplay and Supporting Actor.

2013: 12 Years A Slave, Gravity, American Hustle, The Wolf of Wall Street, Dallas Buyers Club

Misses: Nebraska, Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club over-performed and got nominated for Film Editing and Original Screenplay when it wasn’t expected to.

2014: Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, American Sniper

Misses: The Theory of Everything

Similar thing with Les Mis where Theory of Everything was more of a British thing.

2015: Spotlight, The Revenant, The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian

Misses: Room

The Martian missed director but it had more nominations and it was a hit at the box office. Although Room probably was pretty close.

2016: Moonlight, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge

Misses: Hidden Figures

Hidden Figures maybe would have made the line-up considering it was such a big hit. But Hacksaw won too much stuff and Mel Gibson had a strong comeback narrative. Gross.

2017: The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird

There is no real alternative to these five.

2018: Green Book, Roma, The Favourite, Blackkklansman, Bohemian Rhapsody

Misses: Vice, A Star is Born

Bohemian Rhapsody was a phenomenon and won four Oscars. It would have gotten a Best Picture nomination easily.

2019: Parasite, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Irishman, Joker

Jojo Rabbit was close. But four of these got 10 nominations and Parasite won Best Picture.

2020: Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Promising Young Woman, Minari, Mank

Misses: The Father

2021: The Power of the Dog, Belfast, Dune, West Side Story, King Richard

Misses: Licorice Pizza

At the time of nominations CODA would not have made the cut. It is the first Best Picture winner to be bottom 5.

This thread is posted weekly - please try to post all relevant US political content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Extremely significant events may warrant a separate topic, but almost all should be posted in here.

This is an inherently political thread; please try to avoid antagonistic arguments and bickering matches. Comment threads that devolve into unproductive arguments may be removed so that the overall topic is able to continue.

This thread is posted weekly - please try to post all relevant US political content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Extremely significant events may warrant a separate topic, but almost all should be posted in here.

This is an inherently political thread; please try to avoid antagonistic arguments and bickering matches. Comment threads that devolve into unproductive arguments may be removed so that the overall topic is able to continue.