Please also see @KapteinB's recent post about Ukraine says missile strike destroyed kamikaze drones and Iranian instructors.

I wanted to touch on a few pieces of news and media that people might not have seen this month.

Yesterday, Pyongyang Says It Will Send Troops to Ukraine Within a Month - A military engineering unit will be sent to the Donetsk region to support Russian forces. While there are many foreigners who have intentionally and unintentionally signed up in a combat capacity that supports Russia, North Korea is taking a somewhat different stance here by overtly doing the thing that the west has been reluctant to admit doing themselves (sending advisors and other personnel to front-line adjacent regions).

There is a film coming out called 'Real' which is 90 minutes of unedited front-line footage accidentally recorded by a film-maker. Hopefully this doesn't just cater to the raw "combat footage" people, but also people who are into biopics/documentaries/war journalism/etc.

Sentsov, who spent several years as a political prisoner in Russia and is now fighting in the Ukrainian army, found the 90 minutes of shaky footage six months after the battle. He was going through old files on his GoPro camera and realised it had been switched on that day. ... I realised I had a very interesting imprint of that battle and of war how it truly is – ugly, incomprehensible, twisted and stupid."

Outgoing Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte will be the next head of NATO. The Dutch have been very strong supporters of Ukraine, so this bodes well for further support from a leadership role and might also benefit the relationship between Baltic states and northern Europe. Dutch F-16s and ammunition, along with donations from Belgium and Norway, should be arriving in Ukraine this summer for real this time. They've already made numerous deliveries of F-16s to Romania and other places where Ukrainian pilots are being trained. At the same time, the EU has opened accession talks to Ukraine and Moldova, which may allow for more support to be extended to the countries.

Last month, Russia replaced Shoigu as Defense Minister, which I thought had a Tildes discussion somewhere. Last week Putin sacked deputy defense ministers Nikolai Pankov, Ruslan Tsalikov, Tatiana Shevtsova and Pavel Popov. He then appointed replacement deputy defense ministers, including one relative.

Also of note, Ukraine is confirming that last month they destroyed the last Russian Kalibr missile carrier (ship) using Crimea as its port, with the rest having been removed from Crimea. But this was not the last ship, nor necessarily the last missile carrier, in the Black Sea as a whole. It does suggest that Russia's ability to launch deep missile attacks has been pushed back further, and right at a time when Ukraine has been able to position several MLRS within range of Crimea to hit the targets mentioned by KapteinB's post at the very top of this page.

Other Recent Headlines:

Ukraine signs security pacts with EU, Lithuania and Estonia - 27 June.

In his home near Ukraine's front line with Russia, Yurii makes a stand - A feature article/photo essay.

90 Russian prisoners returned in swap with Ukraine - 26 June.

US and Russian defence chiefs speak amid recent rise in tensions (over Ukraine)

Zelenskiy replaces commander leading war on Russia in eastern Ukraine

‘This country gave me a lot’: the Vietnamese people staying in Ukraine - I found this to be very interesting. These folks really have a lot of pride in their homeland/adopted homeland to fight for it. It's quite heartwarming in that way.

Key global powers fail to sign up to Ukraine peace summit communique - Spoiler, it's basically BRICS countries again.

Over the past couple of weeks Brandon Mitchell has posted a few videos about their crowd-funded offensive drones in the Kupyansk Front direction. I really appreciate what he's been doing in every capacity that he's supported efforts out there (initially in a non-combat role, etc.).

There hasn't been a megathread for a while so I wanted to post the latest news as well as a couple other pieces of news from the past week along with a couple articles providing additional context.

The latest piece of news is Ukrainian forces withdraw from Avdiivka to avoid encirclement, army chief says. This is very concerning and I hope encourages people to continue urging their politicians to find ways of supporting Ukraine in a larger capacity than they have in recent months.

The other day there was also this article titled Rate of Russian military production worries Europe's war planners. If you don't have time to listen to Perun's hour-long PowerPoint from 4 months ago on the same subject (Russian Defence Production 2023 - Can Russia keep up with equipment attrition in Ukraine?), then The Guardian article is a decent primer.

It also links to a Foreign Affairs article published in January of 2024 going into more detail about Russia's economic expenditures and its uneven footing: Putin’s Unsustainable Spending Spree: How the War in Ukraine Will Overheat the Russian Economy (Archive.is link). This is a particularly interesting article as it details the expenses as a percent of GDP that have recently made the rounds in the news this week, as well as how military spending as spurred growth in some industries, while others also tangentially related are lagging behind despite the government's stimulus. Additionally, Russia is spending the equivalent of billions of dollars on annexed regions of Ukraine. It then details the consequences of this substantially increased spending and increased wages that may be dislocating the civilian economy in favor of maintaining enough supplies for a further extended attritional war.

The Guardian article say that:

New analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimates that Russia has lost 3,000 armoured fighting vehicles in the last year and close to 8,800 since the war began.
Unable to produce anywhere near that number of vehicles, Russia has mainly refurbished ageing hardware ...
Russian factories claimed to have delivered 1,500 main battle tanks this year, of which 1,180 to 1,280 had been reactivated from storage, according to IISS. Those numbers, along with reactivated armoured personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, meant Russia would “be able to sustain its assault on Ukraine at current attrition rates for another two to three years, and maybe even longer”, the group said.

For reference, the landing ship that was recently destroyed by Ukrainian Unmanned Surface Vessels (Magura V5 sea drones), Caesar Kunikov, could carry 10 main battle tanks and 340 troops or 12 armored personnel carriers and 340 troops. Though it's not clear what role that ship was playing, as trains play a significant role in deploying men and materiel to the frontlines.

Finally, an article I'd meant to post several months ago to just sort of talk about in general terms: What would happen if Russia invaded Finland? I went to a giant war game in London to find out. Has anyone ever participated in war gaming, have a background or took a class on game theory, or enjoyed the history of tabletop gaming that dates back to this war-time activity? Just interested in what people have to say.