Picture: Anora

This is more of a fluid race than we have been used to this decade so far. Conclave could win here. PGA is the only guild that uses the voting system the Oscar's does, and Anora won there. However, Conclave won SAG Ensemble and is guaranteed a screenplay win and that's all that Spotlight needed to win in a fractured field.

Director: Sean Baker - Anora

Again, director was split at this year's BAFTA and DGA. With Corbet (Brutalist) winning the former and Baker winning the latter. DGA has determined the race most of the time when the category is split like this.

Original Screenplay: Anora written by Sean Baker

It won WGA, and it's closest competition would be A Real Pain which did not receive a Best Picture nomination. Had The Substance won Original Screenplay in BAFTA this would be more in jeopardy.

Adapted Screenplay: Conclave Screenplay by Peter Straughan. Based on the novel by Robert Harris.

Swept.

Lead Actor: Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown

I'm going with the SAG four. SAG and BAFTA have alternated these past few years and the Academy went with all the BAFTA winners last year (which is how Stone beat Gladstone). So I'm sticking with this pattern and saying Chalamet beats Brody. (fun fact: Chalamet would be the youngest winner in this category, Adrian Brody currently holds that title for his performance in The Pianist).

Lead Actress: Demi Moore - The Substance

Again, SAG. I think Moore has the narrative unlike Mikey Madison who is her closest competition.

Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain

Swept.

Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez

Swept.

Cinematography: The Brutalist

It won the BAFTA. Maria and Nosferatu are the only other films with wins but they're not Picture nominees and the winner in this category is usually a Picture nominee.

Original Score: The Brutalist

Original Song: "El Mal" from Emilia Perez

Costume Design: Wicked

Production Design: Wicked

Hair and Make-up: The Substance

VFX: Dune: Part Two

Sound: Dune: Part Two

BAFTA and CAS split here, with CAS going with A Complete Unknown. ACU just doesn't make much sense as a Sound winner to me. La La Land couldn't even win a sound award so I'm sticking with the bombastic sound here.

Film Editing: Conclave

Again, not a clear winner here. Conclave won BAFTA and the editors guild will announce winners after the Oscar ceremony. There used to be a correlation in this category with Sound, but since the merging of Sound Editing and Sound Mixing into one category this correlation has gotten weaker. EEAAO won here without a Sound nomination, and Oppenheimer won here despite losing Sound to Zone of Interest.

International Feature: Emilia Perez

Some people seem to think that I'm Still Here will win here due to the controversies surrounding Emilia Perez. It's clear that those controversies did not affect Saldana's chances so I don't see why it would ruin them here.

Animated Feature: The Wild Robot

Another split category. The Golden Globes went with Flow while the BAFTA's went with Wallace and Gromit. When the category is this split it goes to the PGA winner (Toy Story 4 won here having only won PGA).

Documentary Feature: No Other Land

I don't know much about this category, but this documentary has drummed up quite a bit of buzz. So I'll go with this.

Or, let’s be honest, firstly as a novelty. I don't know anyone else personally who has bought, or would buy, a copy. I figured it would be interesting to see what it was like.

My wife and I stopped on Valentine’s day to buy a copy, and I think we were both surprised by the print. I knew Playboy magazines produced some notable interviews in the past, but a dozen important conversations over several decades isn’t exactly going to outweigh the sea of photographs they’re known for. The new edition was a surprising $20 in-person. It felt like a bit of a gamble, but I think it was worth it.

By the numbers, it’s ~125 pages long and features 3 pictorial photoshoots. Beyond a few pages of photos, the rest is basically all writing. There are a few ads, but nothing like the volume of ads in other magazines I’ve read recently. I figured the magazine would be full of risqué photos, but it’s more of a tasteful inclusion alongside other, more substantial discussion. It is essentially all writing, and it’s good writing.

From the outset, the Editor’s Letter (Mike Guy) sets the tone of the new printing:

Five years have passed since an issue of Playboy rolled off a printing press, and they have been strange years indeed. We’ve passed through the wreckage of a pandemic, sat on a violent political see-saw, and watched as discourse shrinks to tiny digital moments that explode into divisive range at precisely the time we need reason. Just as Playboy was frustrated with the conservative norms of the ‘50s, we want to challenge them now, too. This can mean just showing up, listening; it can mean choosing connecting and pleasure over sensation and isolation. It means rejecting poisonous, meme-driven narratives, as writer Magdalene Taylor urges in “The Rise of the Beta Male” …, her disturbing report from the front lines of our emerging dystopia about young men who have given up on sex. … The internet - OnlyFans, TikTok, and the rest - has stolen sexuality and fed it into the meat grinder of the attention economy. We’re doing our part to steal it back. As the poet Wallace Stevens wrote, “The greatest poverty is not to live in the physical world.”

I didn’t anticipate an article detailing a first-person investigation into the rise of anti-semitism, or an article about a far-out apocalyptic billionaire party, nor did I expect a humorous memoir about the rise of Nashville as the bachelorette party destination. But, these were funny, interesting pieces that spurred much discussion in my house. My wife and I have taken turns reading these long-form articles aloud each night. The article on an ultra-exclusive sex party in LA fell inline with the sort of topics I expected, but the writing and description of a beautiful spectacle made us pause and say, “that actually sounds like a fun time.”

It turns out you really can read Playboy for the articles, and more importantly resonate on the value of re-engaging human connection, disarming hate, building up our communities, and challenging our preconceived notions.