This current season is not over yet, but with a new year comes new movies and new awards predictions. These were the early predictions last year. These are earlier however, so let’s see how it goes this time. I’m only doing a few major categories.

Picture

1. The Holdovers
2. Oppenheimer
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Past Lives
6. Maestro
7. Poor Things
8. Blitz
9. May-December
10. The Killer

Director

1. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
2. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part Two
4. Celine Song - Past Lives
5. Todd Haynes - May-December

Original Screenplay

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. Oppenheimer
4. May-December
5. Maestro

Adapted Screenplay

1. Poor Things
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part Two
4. The Killer
5. Rustin

Lead Actor

1. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
2. Bradley Cooper - Maestro
3. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
4. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Colman Domingo - Rustin

Lead Actress

1. Saoirsa Ronan - Blitz
2. Emma Stone - Poor Things
3. Greta Lee - Past Lives
4. Natalie Portman - May-December
5. Carrie Mulligan - Maestro

For me, as much as I didn’t care for the film, This is a Life from EEAAO getting into original song would make me incredibly happy. It’s such a good song and indie songs like it rarely get nominated.

Another one would be Glass Onion getting into Supporting Actress and Costumes.

pending

Picture

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. TÁR
4. The Fabelmans
5. Top Gun: Maverick
6. Elvis
7. Avatar: The Way of Water
8. The Whale
9. All Quiet on the Western Front
10. Triangle of Sadness

Director

1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
2. Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Todd Field - TÁR
5. Edward Berger - All Quiet on the Western Front

Original Screenplay

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. TÁR
4. The Fabelmans
5. Triangle of Sadness

Adapted Screenplay

1. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. The Whale
3. Living
4. Glass Onion
5. Women Talking

Lead Actor

1. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
3. Austin Butler - Elvis
4. Bill Nighy - Living
5. Hugh Jackman - The Son

Lead Actress

1. Cate Blanchett - TÁR
2. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Ana De Armas - Blonde
4. Danielle Deadwyler - Till
5. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
3. Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Hong Chau - The Whale
5. Dolly De Leon - Triangle of Sadness

Best Supporting Actor

1. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
5. Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse

Cinematography

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. The Batman
3. Empire of Light
4. Elvis
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Costume Design

1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
5. The Fabelmans

Film Editing

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Elvis
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. TÁR

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. The Whale
2. Elvis
3. Babylon
4. The Batman
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Production Design

1. Babylon
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. The Fabelmans
4. Elvis
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Original Score

1. Babylon
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. The Fabelmans
4. Pinocchio
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Original Song

1. Naatu Naatu - RRR
2. Hold My Hand - Top Gun: Maverick
3. Ciao Papa - Pinocchio
4. Applause - Tell it Like a Woman
5. This is a Life - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Sound

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Elvis
4. The Batman
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

VFX

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
4. The Batman
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Animated Feature

1. Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
5. Inu-Oh

Documentary

1. All The Beauty and the Bloodshed
2. Fire of Love
3. All That Breathes
4. Moonage Daydream
5. Descendant

International Film

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
2. Decision to Leave (South Korea)
3. Saint Omer (France)
4. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
5. EO (Poland)

Picture: EEAAO

Director: Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans

Original Screenplay: The Banshees of Inisherin

Adapted Screenplay: Women Talking

Lead Actress: (TIE) Cate Blanchett - Tar and Michelle Yeoh - EEAAO

Lead Actor: Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin

Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan - EEAAO

Ensemble: The Fabelmans

Young Actor: Gabrielle Labelle - The Fabelmans

Comedy: EEAAO

Animated: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

International Film: RRR

Original Song: Naatu Naatu - RRR

Original Score: Babylon

Film Editing: EEAAO

Costumes: Babylon

Production Design: Babylon

Hair and make-up: The Whale

Cinematography: Top Gun: Maverick

Drama: Elvis

Comedy: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Director: Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Screenplay: Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin

Lead Actor - Drama: Austin Butler - Elvis

Lead Actress - Drama: Cate Blanchett - TÁR

Lead Actor - Comedy: Colin Farrell - The Banshees Inisherin

Lead Actress - Comedy: Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin

Original Score: The Banshees of Inisherin

Original Song: Hold My Hand from Top Gun: Maverick

Animated Feature: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

International Feature: All Quiet on the Western Front

BAFTA, aka the British Oscar’s recently released a longlist. In recent years BAFTA has moved onto a juried system. This was made in order to make the nominees more diverse (as BAFTA has often been the worst offenders in keeping the nominees white). So if you see some weird nominations from movies you’ve never heard of that’s why.

There are some categories that are not juried: Film and Screenplay being the above-the-line categories to not be juried at all. But the rest are partially juried, meaning the top 3 of normal vote getters get nominated, and the next 3 are juried. Here we go.

Best Film

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. TÁR
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Triangle of Sadness

Best Director

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. TÁR
4. Aftersun
5. Saint Omer
6. Corsage

Original Screenplay

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. TÁR
4. The Fabelmans
5. Triangle of Sadness

Adapted Screenplay

1. Living
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
4. Women Talking
5. The Wonder

Lead Actress

1. Cate Blanchett - TÁR
2. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
4. Danielle Deadwyler - Till
5. Lesley Manville - Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
6. Ana De Armas - Blonde

Lead Actor

1. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Austin Butler - Elvis
3. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
4. Bill Nighy - Living
5. Paul Mescal - Aftersun
6. Darryl McCormack - Good Luck To You, Leo Grande

Supporting Actress

1. Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Dolly De Leon - Triangle of Sadness
4. Aimee Lou Wood - Living
5. Janelle Monae - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
6. Hong Chau - The Whale

Supporting Actor

1. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Brad Pitt - Babylon
4. Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Albert Schuck - All Quiet on the Western Front
6. Michael Ward - Empire of Light

Casting

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Triangle of Sadness
4. Aftersun
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Best British Film

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Living
3. Aftersun
4. Good Luck To You, Leo Grande
5. The Wonder
6. Brian and Charles
7. Mrs Harris Goes To Paris
8. Lady Chatterley’s Lover
9. Blue Jean
10. Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical
11. Emily

Nominations for both the Golden Globes and the Critic’s Choice have been released.

Also, today, the shortlist in many categories has also been released.

Here’s where I think the race is going and, unlike my other lists, I have an explainer for all the predictions.

Picture

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. The Fabelmans
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Avatar: The Way of Water
6. Tár
7. Elvis
8. Babylon
9. Women Talking
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Alt: Triangle of Sadness

The top 9 are all pretty clearly happening. Even with mixed-to-negative reviews Babylon is still going to get a lot of below-the-line nominations and one or two acting nominations which would be more than enough to get a Picture nomination. In a similar way to Vice or Don’t Look Up, Babylon is just too big to fail.

Really, the only thing that’s left up to debate is the 10th nominee. There are three contenders for that spot: Glass Onion, Triangle of Sadness, and RRR. I just don’t see a big enough push from critics for RRR to happen, nor do I see much international appeal/acclaim for that film to happen. Triangle of Sadness has a lot of European support (as it won the Palme and the Euro Oscars). However, Glass Onion is my pick. It made a killing in its limited release. It’s going to be extremely popular when it hits Netlfix in a few days, and unlike the first Knives Out, it’s likely to get an acting nomination.

Director:

1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
2. Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Todd Field - Tár

Alt: Joseph Kosinski - Top Gun: Maverick

These seem like an easy five. Chazelle was supposed to be a contender but after he missed at the Globes (who were supposed to love the film) he’s not happening. McDonagh was snubbed in this category five years ago for Three Billboards. But, frankly, Banshees is a stronger contender than that film was. He has a lot of high brow support this time around, which he didn’t last time, which led to Paul Thomas Anderson getting nominated in Phantom Thread. Kosinski I think is getting a DGA nomination, but the director’s branch is known for their high brow taste and Cameron already has the action-adventure movie. Not to mention the directing duo of Daniels having an action movie as well.

Original Screenplay

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Tár
4. The Fabelmans
5. Triangle of Sadness

Babylon missed Screenplay at both the Globes and Critic’s Choice. While it’s probably getting a nomination at WGA, it’s dead in this category. There’s really only one other choice here and that’s Triangle of Sadness. It has the support to get it there.

I currently think Banshees is winning as, again, it’s a stronger movie than Three Billboards. EEAAO can still win as Get Out beat McDonagh last time. But I just don’t see it happen. Get Out won more screenplay awards with critics than EEAAO.

Adapted Screenplay

1. Women Talking
2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
3. Living
4. The Whale
5. Bones and All

The top 3 are locked. The Whale would miss in a stronger year but there isn’t a lot of choice in this category. Bones and All I think makes sense as a passion pick. It won two awards at Venice. I had Pinocchio in this category a little while ago but that’s also dead here. Another possibility is She Said, but no one actually cares about that movie and it’s not the type of thing that gets in as a sole Screenplay nominee. Those usually go to offbeat things like The Lobster.

Lead Actor

1. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Austin Butler - Elvis
3. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
4. Bill Nighy - Living
5. Tom Cruise - Top Gun: Maverick

The top 4 are locked. The fifth nominee here is a tough one. Again, not a lot of choice. Hugh Jackman is in a movie no one cares about. Babylon is probably not gonna be strong enough to get its lead into this category. Leaving us with Tom Cruise.

Lead Actress

1. Cate Blanchett - Tár
2. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Margot Robbie - Babylon
4. Danielle Deadwyler - Till
5. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans

I Wanna Dance With Somebody is dead. It has worse reviews than Bohemian Rhapsody, it’s not going to make as much money as BoRap, and Ackie did not get nominations at the Globes or Critic’s Choice.

Supporting Actor

1. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Brad Pitt - Babylon
4. Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans

Keoghan has been getting tons of acclaim so him getting in alongside Gleeson for Banshees seems like it’s happening. The only one here I’m not too sure about is Dano who missed out on a nomination at the Globes. I’m not sure who would replace him as of right now though and I think Fabelmans gets more than one acting nomination.

Supporting Actress

1. Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Janelle Monae - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
3. Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Jessie Buckley - Women Talking
5. Dolly De Leon - Triangle of Sadness

Outside of Condon, none of these are guaranteed. I think Monae is definitely getting in, especially if Glass Onion is a Picture nominee, but she did miss out on a Globe nomination. Women Talking is either only getting Buckley as an acting nomination or its getting no acting noms. I’m counting on De Leon getting that Euro push which gave Buckley a nomination last year for The Lost Daughter.

Cinematography

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Tár

These seem like an easy top 5. Maybe Empire of Light gets in because of Roger Deakins’s name. But no one cares about it.

Film Editing

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Elvis
5. The Banshees of Inisherin

Fabelmans is probably missing here, so is Babylon. Film Editing is usually reserved either for Top 5 movies or for extremely flashy editing. Fabelmans isn’t flashy and Babylon isn’t going to be strong enough. Top Gun: Maverick is an easy winner in this category alongside other bombastic winners like Ford vs Ferrari and The Bourne Ultimatum.

Sound

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Elvis
4. Babylon
5. Everything Everywhere All At Once

The top 4 seem like they’re happening. The fifth one is more up in the air. The sound branch usually likes nominating Best Picture nominees though and Fabelmans missed the shortlist which is why I have EEAAO in there. Top Gun is an easy winner here again. Plus, there’s a correlation between Film Editing and Sound.

Original Score

1. The Fabelmans
2. Babylon
3. The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Women Talking
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Avatar got snubbed at the Globes, which means it’s probably not happening. It’s also not that flashy of a score and contains kind of milquetoast action movie music. I currently have Fabelmans winning as John Williams is retiring after he finishes up Indiana Jones. However, I don’t think there’s a clear winner here right now.

Original Song

1. "Hold My Hand" from Top Gun: Maverick
2. “Ciao Papa” from Pinocchio
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
4. “Applause” from Tell It Like A Woman
5. “Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water

Naatu Naatu has a lot of passion. Applause is from Diane Warren who gets nominated for her boring documentary songs every year.

Production Design

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. Elvis
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Costume Design

1. Babylon
2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
3. Elvis
4. The Fabelmans
5. Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris

Make-up and Hairstyling

1. The Whale
2. Elvis
3. Babylon
4. The Batman
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

VFX

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
4. The Batman
5. Nope

I actually had EEAAO here but it missed the VFX shortlist.

Animated Feature

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes
3. Turning Red
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
5. Inu-Oh

Pinocchio is the front-runner here, Marcel has a lot of passion amongst hipster types and has been getting in everywhere. Disney’s only real contender in this category is Turning Red. Puss in Boots has been getting in everywhere. Inu-Oh got a Globe nomination but I don’t really know what else would get in there. Kind of a weak year for animated films.

International Film

1. Decision to Leave
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Close
4. Saint Omer
5. The Quiet Girl

Documentary

1. All The Beauty and the Bloodshed
2. Moonage Daydream
3. Fire of Love
4. All That Breathes
5. Descendant

Okay that’s all I got for you. I cut out some of the commentary because I feel like I went on too long in the beginning.

Best TV Drama

Better Call Saul

The Crown

House of the Dragon

Ozark

Severance

Best TV Comedy

Abbott Elementary

The Bear

Hacks

Only Murders in the Building

Wednesday

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series, Drama

Jeff Bridges (“The Old Man”)

Kevin Costner (“Yellowstone”)

Diego Luna (“Andor”)

Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”)

Adam Scott (“Severance”)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series, Drama

Emma D’Arcy (“House of the Dragon”)

Laura Linney (“Ozark”)

Imelda Staunton (“The Crown”)

Hilary Swank (“Alaska Daily”)

Zendaya (“Euphoria”)

Best Actress in a TV Series, Musical or Comedy

Quinta Brunson (“Abbott Elementary”)

Kaley Cuoco (“The Flight Attendant”)

Selena Gomez (“Only Murders in the Building”)

Jenna Ortega (“Wednesday”)

Jean Smart (“Hacks”)

Best Actor in a TV Series, Musical or Comedy

Donald Glover (“Atlanta”)

Bill Hader (“Barry”)

Steve Martin (“Only Murders in the Building”)

Martin Short (“Only Murders in the Building”)

Jeremy Allen White (“The Bear”)

Best Supporting Actor, Television

John Lithgow (“The Old Man”)

Jonathan Pryce (“The Crown”)

John Turturro (“Severance”)

Tyler James Williams (“Abbott Elementary”)

Henry Winkler (“Barry”)

Best Supporting Actress, Television

Elizabeth Debicki (“The Crown”)

Hannah Einbinder (“Hacks”)

Julia Garner (“Ozark”)

Janelle James (“Abbott Elementary”)

Sheryl Lee Ralph (“Abbott Elementary”)

Best Limited Series, Anthology Series or a Motion Picture made for Television

“Black Bird” (Apple TV+)

“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)

“The Dropout” (Hulu)

“Pam & Tommy” (Hulu)

“The White Lotus” (HBO)

Best Performance by an Actor, Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture made for Television

Taron Egerton (“Black Bird”)

Colin Firth (“The Staircase”)

Andrew Garfield (“Under the Banner of Heaven”)

Evan Peters (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”)

Sebastian Stan (“Pam & Tommy”)

Best Performance by an Actress, Limited Series, Anthology Series or a Motion Picture made for Television

Jessica Chastain (“George and Tammy”)

Julia Garner (“Inventing Anna”)

Lily James (“Pam & Tommy”)

Julia Roberts (“Gaslit”)

Amanda Seyfried (“The Dropout”)

Best Performance by an Actress in Supporting Role, Limited Series, Anthology Series or a Motion Picture made for Television

Jennifer Coolidge (“The White Lotus”)

Claire Danes (“Fleishman Is in Trouble”)

Daisy Edgar-Jones (“Under the Banner of Heaven”)

Niecy Nash-Betts (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”)

Aubrey Plaza (“The White Lotus”)

Best Performance by an Actor in Supporting Role, Limited Series, Anthology Series or a Motion Picture made for Television

F. Murray Abraham (“The White Lotus”)

Domhnall Gleeson (“The Patient”)

Paul Walter Hauser (“Black Bird”)

Richard Jenkins (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”)

Seth Rogen (“Pam & Tommy”)

https://www.goldenglobes.com/winners-nominees

Best Picture - Drama

Avatar: The Way of Water

Elvis

The Fabelmans

TÁR

Top Gun: Maverick

Best Picture - Musical/Comedy

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All At Once

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Triangle of Sadness

Best Actress - Motion Picture - Drama

Cate Blanchett - TÁR

Olivia Colman - Empire of Light

Viola Davis - The Woman King

Ana De Armas - Blonde

Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans

Best Actor - Motion Picture - Drama

Austin Butler - Elvis

Brendan Fraser - The Whale

Hugh Jackman - The Son

Bill Nighy - Living

Jeremy Pope - The Inspection

Best Actress - Motion Picture - Musical/Comedy

Lesley Manville - Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris

Margot Robbie - Babylon

Anya Taylor-Joy - The Menu

Emma Thompson - Good Luck To You, Leo Grande

Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Actor - Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

Diego Calva - Babylon

Daniel Craig - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Adam Driver - White Noise

Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin

Ralph Finnes - The Menu

Best Supporting Actress - Motion Picture

Angela Basset - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Dolly De Leon - Triangle of Sadness

Carey Mulligan - She Said

Best Supporting Actor - Motion Picture

Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin

Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin

Brad Pitt - Babylon

Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse

Best Director - Motion Picture

James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water

Daniels - Everyhting Everywhere All At Once

Baz Luhrmann - Elvis

Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin

Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans

Best Screenplay - Motion Picture

TÁR

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Banshees of Inisherin

Women Talking

The Fabelmans

Best Picture - Animated

Guillermo Del Torro’s Pinocchio

Inu-Oh

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Turning Red

Best Picture - Non-English Language

All Quiet on the Western Front

Argentina, 1985

Close

Decision to Leave

RRR

Best Score - Motion Picture

The Banshees of Inisherin

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Women Talking

Babylon

The Fabelmans

Best Song - Motion Picture

Carolina from Where The Crawdads Sing

Ciao Papa from Pinocchio

Hold My Hand from Top Gun: Maverick

Lift Me Up from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Naatu Naatu from RRR

https://www.afi.com/award/afi-awards-2022/

Movies of the year:

Avatar: The Way of Water

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Fabelmans

Nope

She Said

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

The Woman King

Women Talking

AFI Special Award: The Banshees of Inisherin

TV:

Abbott Elementary

The Bear

Better Call Saul

Hacks

Mo

Pachinko

Reservation Dogs

Severance

Somebody Somewhere

The White Lotus

These are the real nominations, not my predictions. Here’s the article about it:
https://www.indiewire.com/2022/11/2023-independent-spirit-award-nominations-1234784758/

Best Feature

Bones and All

Everything Everywhere All At Once

Our Father, the Devil

TÁR

Women Talking

Best Director

Todd Field, TÁR

Kogonda, After Yang

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once

Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Halina Reijn, Bodies Bodies Bodies

Best First Feature

Aftersun

Emily the Criminal

The Inspection

Murina

Palm Trees and Power Lines

Best Lead Performance

Cate Blanchett - TÁR

Dale Dickey - A Love Song

Mia Goth - Pearl

Regina Hall - Honk for Jesus, Save Your Soul

Paul Mescal - Aftersun

Aubrey Plaza - Emily the Criminal

Jeremy Pope - The Inspection

Taylor Russell - Bones and All

Andrea Riseborough - To Leslie

Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Performance

Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway

Nina Hoss - TÁR

Brian d’Arcy James - The Cathedral

Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Trevante Rhodes - Bruiser

Theo Rossi - Emily the Criminal

Mark Rylance - Bones and All

Jonathan Tucker - Palm Trees and Power Lines

Gabrielle Union - The Inspection

Breakthrough Performance

Frankie Corio - Aftersun

Gracija Filipovic - Murina

Stephanie Hsu - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Lily McInerny - Palm Trees and Power Lines

Daniel Zolghardi - Funny Pages

Best Screenplay

After Yang

Catherine Called Birdy

Everything Everywhere All At Once

TÁR

Women Talking

Best First Screenplay

Bodies Bodies Bodies

Emergency

Emily the Criminal

Fire Island

Palm Trees and Power Lines

Best Cinematography

Aftersun

Murina

Neptune Frost

Peal

TÁR

Best Editing

Aftersun

The Cathedral

Everything Everywhere All At Once

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

TÁR

Robert Altman Award

Women Talking

Best Documentary

A House Made of Splinters

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Midwives

Riotsville USA

Best International Film

Corsage

Joyland

Leonor Will Never Die

Return to Seol

Saint Omer

Golden Globe nominations come out mid-December. I don’t really see anything changing from here to the end of the year. The only movies left to premiere are Avatar and Babylon. Both of which are almost guaranteed to be good, at the very least. And Avatar is guaranteed to be a huge hit.

Here are my previous predictions for the Globes, and it’s crazy how much things have changed.

The Globes usually have a couple of weird choices and I don’t think many of these will end up with Oscar nominations.

But here’s where I think the winds are blowing.

Motion Picture - Drama:

1. The Fabelmans
2. Women Talking
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. TÁR

Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy:

1. Babylon
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
5. Spirited

Director:

1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
2. Damien Chazelle - Babylon
3. James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Sarah Polley - Women Talking

Screenplay:

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. Women Talking
5. Everything Everywhere All At Once

Lead Actor - Drama:

1. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
2. Austin Butler - Elvis
3. Bill Nighy - Living
4. Gabriel LaBelle - The Fabelmans
5. Tom Cruise - Top Gun: Maverick

Lead Actress - Drama:

1. Danielle Deadwyler - Till
2. Naomi Ackie - I Wanna Dance With Somebody
3. Cate Blanchett - TÁR
4. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
5. Jennifer Lawrence - Causeway

Lead Actor - Musical or Comedy:

1. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Diego Calva - Babylon
3. Daniel Craig - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
4. Will Ferrell - Spirited
5. George Clooney - Ticket to Paradise

Lead Actress - Musical or Comedy:

1. Margot Robbie - Babylon
2. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Julia Roberts - Ticket to Paradise
4. Sandra Bullock - The Lost City
5. Lesley Manville - Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Supporting Actor:

1. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Brad Pitt - Babylon
4. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
5. Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse

Supporting Actress:

1. Jean Smart - Babylon
2. Claire Foy - Women Talking
3. Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Janelle Monae - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
5. Hong Chau - The Whale

Original Score:

1. The Fabelmans
2. Babylon
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Women Talking
5. Pinocchio

Original Song:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
2. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. “Ciao Papa” from Pinocchio
5. “Do A Little Good" from Spirited

Animated Feature

1. Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Strange World
4. My Father’s Dragon
5. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish