Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of November 4

Nauseous. Trying to keep moving, since I've done everything I can do and now I just get to wait and try not to look at the news or social media.

Surprisingly optimistic. Given that polls have been unreliable in aggregate in both 2016 and 2020, I'm trying to pay more attention to what I'm observing qualitatively this time around (which runs counter to how I would normally approach this sort of thing).

In 2016, it felt like polls were the only thing pointing to a decisive victory but the overall mood was terrible — very muted enthusiasm for Clinton, ridiculous controversy surrounding her in spite of her opponent's clear unfitness, and genuine excitement and momentum for Trump that we all willfully ignored.

In 2020, there was excitement around getting Trump out of office, and Biden was the means to that end more than anything. I didn't sense any real enthusiasm for Biden specifically, but given the absolute fury over how the previous 4 years had been handled and the bungling of the COVID crisis, I wasn't surprised when Biden eked out a victory.

This time around, between anger over the overturning of Roe, an outpouring of what feels like genuine adoration and support for Harris that I never felt for Clinton, solid rally attendance for Harris and dwindling attendance for Trump, and seemingly massive grassroots Dem fundraising and volunteering vs 2016 and 2020 (haven't looked at the data, so this is more of an impression) and absolutely abysmal ground game from the Trump campaign — the only thing that feels out of step with a Harris victory is the polls.

So I'm opting to use the Selzer poll as a sign that the vibes I'm observing are real (I know that's just one state responding to a very specific situation) and assuming the best will happen until proven otherwise, rather than accepting the nailbiter scenario this time around.

I feel awful. The Iowa poll gave me some optimism, but usually my mood swings from anxious to morose. I cannot believe this race is even close. I will never understand it.

I am Europaean, so really no direct legit stakes in this election, but the wider ramifications of a second Trump term just seems unfathomable. Especially on climate policy. It is weird that in some fashion, whether my kids will have at least a chance of non-apocalyptic future is being decided on how much some swing states hates women (a gross simplification, but still).

I have been volunteering a lot. I was very scared until just after the Madison Square Garden Trump rally. MAGA went full mask off with the rhetoric at that rally. The opening comedian in particular called Puerto Rico a trash island, and told a watermelon eating joke about a 'black friend'. Puerto Ricans who live full time in states can and do vote, if they care to do so. A significant number of them live in Pennsylvania, a key swing state. Here are some articles that encouraged me:
Puerto Rican Stars back Harris

Latino voters in Pennsylvania support Harris for the most part

Archbishop of Puerto Rico demands Trump apologize for rally comedian

I've also been encouraged by other 'mistakes' by Trump that I think are likely to reduce his turnout. Examples include trash talking FEMA in North Carolina after the Hurricane which in some cases discouraged or prevented people from applying for available aid. The recent video of him with a microphone looked bad. His promising to put RFK in charge of health care policy and administration in the US federal government looks bad.

I'm also quite encouraged by the Selzer poll in Iowa. When that was released, r/fivethirtyeight went crazy over how big a surprise that was and how reliable a poll this usually is.

I was feeling pretty stressed, but watching this Adam Conover video helped a bit. It's a bit preachy, and the title is a bit clickbait, but it helped me realize that tomorrow is not some singular moment that will decide everything. The world will still go on. The road may be significantly harder depending on who wins the election (if we even get a definitive answer on that), but there will be a day after filled with choices we can make in our local communities to keep everything moving in a positive direction. That's what I'm trying to focus on right now. I still dip into fits of anxiety, but I'm taking it slow.

If I allowed myself to think about it, horrible. So I'm doing my best not to. There is literally nothing I can do at this point to affect the outcome other than what I've already done (vote!). Pouring myself into work and crafting cosplay things and completely avoiding news, polls, etc for the next few days. I'm also preparing myself to try and be patient, since it's very unlikely the outcome will be certain on Tuesday, and likely not on Wednesday either.

Wracked with anxiety and stress.

Very anxious. I made the mistake of reading an article about what the "stand back and stand by" boys are talking about, and that has made me imagine all sorts of situations that probably won't happen. My response to one of those situations is to say that "I'm voting for/I voted for democracy and freedom." I think I'm prepared to say that with a gun pointed at me. But I do think it'd be smarter to just lie. And now I'm a little anxious about typing this out using an account where it'd be easy to doxx me.

I don't really believe in that, though. I don't think it'll come to that, especially not in the rural place where I live. But I'm eager to have this be done. I'm actually optimistic about the result. I think the polls are overestimating Trump's support and I think that far more Americans are tired of him than appreciate him. But I just want it to be over.

I feel disconnected and apathetic. I did vote--in fact I've only ever voted 3 times in my life and each time it was decidedly a vote against a specific candidate as opposed to one for a candidate that I particularly cared about. But my faith in reality, reason, and rationality to persevere in the current political and social climate has been completely eroded away to the point where I just feel numb.

My wife's out of town for a few days to attend an expo, and she's traveling with her sister. They are complete polar opposites from a political perspective, and the only way they get along is if they completely avoid all political and culture war related topics. It's going to be interesting hearing about whether or not (and how) they managed to do that considering they'll be together on election night and a couple days after. So while I don't really feel anything about the election itself, I at least do really hope that my wife and her sister manage to keep their relationship intact, regardless of the outcome (or lack of agreed upon outcome, as I suspect will more likely be the case).

I feel fine.

I am concerned.

I've been thinking of this date as a far away thing for so long and now it is a bit disconcerting to know that it is tomorrow.

Better than a week ago. Got some hope that the Shy Harris Voting Wife phenomenon will be enough to push her over the edge. It's still coin toss territory and I'm mostly comforting myself with the fact that I, personally, should come out fine either way... which is mostly just a coping mechanism since there's a lot of people I know and value that won't.

Nervous as hell. It's not life-altering nerves, but whatever happens there will be a mess. A Harris win would mean months of substantial mess rather than years, but I'm not looking forward to Wednesday whatever the result.

Honestly, pretty chill. Aside from doing some ballot research before I went to vote last week, I have stayed mostly checked out from this election.

I'm sure tomorrow, as I inevitably and habitually refresh a results tracker every fifteen minutes, will be a high-anxiety day regardless of the result, but that's tomorrow.

I'm ready to celebrate or commiserate, whichever is necessary, but I refuse to give this election my fear.

Are you going to post the election megathread tomorrow, after polls close?

I feel stressed and anxious. I feel very worried about voter apathy/bystander effect, similar to what happened in 2016. "Oh there's no way Trump will win (again), I can just stay home, other people are going to go vote against him, so I don't have to."

I just really, really hope people go out and vote. Talking the talk is one thing, walking the walk is another.

For the past week I have felt oddly... calm? I believe Kamala is going to win and it won't be close.

I have embraced the void and have become nothingness. I expect nothing except that this is going to turn out however it's going to turn out, and we're hopefully going to get an answer about who's in charge by the end of the week, if not the night of.

(Ask me again in five minutes.)

I have a fever

I'm feeling... broke? I couldn't predictably schedule volunteer time, so I put every spare dime into campaign contributions for Dems up and down the ballot. I'm genuinely excited about the quality of local Michigan candidates, as well as Kamala Harris. If money equals votes, I've done what I can to support them in the face of a dark spending flood.

Right now, I'm exhausted, over-newsed, and clinging to hope for a bright outcome tomorrow. To be honest, my gut says it's not going to be close as far as the popular vote is concerned (I'd put money on 46+% Harris <44% Trump) but swing states and the Electoral College are the real game.

Extremely stressed. Almost preferred it before the Iowa poll, now I have hope. I'm not sure how I'll be able to sleep.

Playing Star Ocean 2 whenever I have free time to keep the thoughts away.

I'm nervous because it's hard to be sure what the outcome will be, but my gut feeling says Kamala has this, given signs like the early voter turnout of women and the last set of polls.

I'm not an American, so my personal stake as a European is that trump will leave Ukraine out to dry, but I'm hoping for the sake of Americans I know as well that he doesn't get back in.

Brexit also seemed to have an inoculating effect on the worst of the ideas for the Brits also, so here's hoping Trumps first term proved the same way for Americans.

A lot more relaxed after the Selzer poll and Ralston prediction. I voted early, it’s out of my hands now. Probably gonna spend all day tomorrow in the classified room at work, so I won’t be constantly checking for news updates.

@kfwyre is already ready to go, they posted above