If the government knew about aliens being here and were covering it up then the presidents would know about it. There's no way Trump wouldn't have blabbed that all over his social media.
If the government knew about aliens being here and were covering it up then the presidents would know about it. There's no way Trump wouldn't have blabbed that all over his social media.
I think it is absolutely plausible that the military industrial complex keeps secrets from Congress and presidents. I'm not making a statement either way on whether aliens are here, but I think...
I think it is absolutely plausible that the military industrial complex keeps secrets from Congress and presidents. I'm not making a statement either way on whether aliens are here, but I think it's a bit naive to assume that the president automatically gets a full download of every little government secret upon taking the oath.
There are documented cases where the military industrial complex keeps secrets from congress and presidents. The original document which became the pentagon papers were kept secret from the...
There are documented cases where the military industrial complex keeps secrets from congress and presidents. The original document which became the pentagon papers were kept secret from the president and congress.
I haven't studied Watergate in detail but from what I recall from a YouTube documentary, Watergate was about President Nixon and his govt held responsible for a variety of sinister things...
I haven't studied Watergate in detail but from what I recall from a YouTube documentary, Watergate was about President Nixon and his govt held responsible for a variety of sinister things happening in US and globally such as the coup carried out in some Latin American countries by CIA's support. Nixon, etc. just claimed that they didn't knew CIA was doing all those things, something like that.
I don't think that is Watergate. Watergate is specifically about President Nixon putting wiretaps into the DNC head office in the Watergate business plaza, hence the name. It also goes into how...
I don't think that is Watergate. Watergate is specifically about President Nixon putting wiretaps into the DNC head office in the Watergate business plaza, hence the name. It also goes into how the people who carried it out were ordered by people close to the president, how it was covered up by the president, and how he lied about it.
To clarify, it has never been conclusively shown that Nixon was aware of the break-in before it occurred. But he definitely did participate in the cover-up after it was discovered.
Watergate is specifically about President Nixon putting wiretaps into the DNC head office in the Watergate business plaza, hence the name.
To clarify, it has never been conclusively shown that Nixon was aware of the break-in before it occurred. But he definitely did participate in the cover-up after it was discovered.
What you're saying is obviously non-factual from a quick 10 second search and review of a Wikipedia article introduction. If you're not sure about something, please check first.
I haven't studied Watergate in detail but from what I recall from a YouTube documentary...
What you're saying is obviously non-factual from a quick 10 second search and review of a Wikipedia article introduction. If you're not sure about something, please check first.
Why the facetious comment? Just curious? It seems like numerous politicians on both sides of the aisle seem to take this seriously but the internet at large doesn't want to. Care to explain your...
Why the facetious comment? Just curious? It seems like numerous politicians on both sides of the aisle seem to take this seriously but the internet at large doesn't want to. Care to explain your thought process?
It’s a variety of things but mainly that people seem to hold dueling opinions and on our world governments. One minute, they are so incompetent that they can’t fix simple problems and are so...
It’s a variety of things but mainly that people seem to hold dueling opinions and on our world governments. One minute, they are so incompetent that they can’t fix simple problems and are so bogged down in bureaucracy they can’t lift a hand without needing a committee vote. The next they are so incredibly competent that they can hide extraterrestrial beings from billions of people with billions of cameras attached to their hips with a group of people who never leak any information ever.
We just had a 20 something guardsman leak Ukraine War secrets on discord to gain clout with his teenaged following. I find the likelihood that there isn’t a single person involved with this global coverup that wouldn’t do something half as dumb sounding with literal aliens from outer space?
That is very true about Trump in particular and conspiracies in general. It is highly unlikely that something like that would remain a secret for that long. I would expect a torrent of...
That is very true about Trump in particular and conspiracies in general. It is highly unlikely that something like that would remain a secret for that long. I would expect a torrent of whistleblowers by that point.
I'm curious, people seem to be putting a lot of weight behind the fact that this was said under oath; and therefore it can't be false. But it seemed like 100% of what he said he's claimed to have...
I'm curious, people seem to be putting a lot of weight behind the fact that this was said under oath; and therefore it can't be false.
But it seemed like 100% of what he said he's claimed to have heard from other people within the government. But not a single name, project, institution or document was mentioned. What kind of whistleblower is that?
AOC essentially asked where to even begin entering this rabbit hole, only to be told he couldn't talk about that in a public setting. So, only when not under oath on this hearing, ain't that a bit convenient?
To me this whole hearing seemed like a big nothingburger.
It's a good way to get around the whole "under oath" thing, no? Nothing he says has any value since it's all hearsay, but claiming to have heard that hearsay is also inherently non-falsifiable a...
But it seemed like 100% of what he said he's claimed to have heard from other people within the government. But not a single name, project, institution or document was mentioned. What kind of whistleblower is that?
It's a good way to get around the whole "under oath" thing, no? Nothing he says has any value since it's all hearsay, but claiming to have heard that hearsay is also inherently non-falsifiable a claim.
Yeah, the only time he seemed to be willing to talk about anything substantial was outside of precisely where it would've mattered. I doubt this hearing would've ever happened if it wasn't public.
Yeah, the only time he seemed to be willing to talk about anything substantial was outside of precisely where it would've mattered.
I doubt this hearing would've ever happened if it wasn't public.
It's also interesting to me that people conflate someone's job or employer with some extra level of trustworthiness. For example, we assume that jet fighter pilots are the smartest, most...
It's also interesting to me that people conflate someone's job or employer with some extra level of trustworthiness.
For example, we assume that jet fighter pilots are the smartest, most trustworthy, best people in the world. They are also in the military which we typically also assume means they have some additional level of selflessness or other attributes. These ideas are probably a direct result of military propaganda, but that's a discussion for another time.
On the other hand, we all probably know someone from high school or elsewhere that entered the military because they didn't have any other options, weren't smart enough for college, etc. which flies in the face of our assumptions about military members in general.
Someone that is a fighter pilot is perfectly capable of being suckered into a conspiracy theory. In addition, you might assume that since jet fighter pilots are also told that they are the best, smartest, most amazing people in the world that they will accept explanations for things that contradict their internal assessment of themselves. "No, that thing you saw wasn't just you being tired and hallucinating. The only thing it could be is something extra terrestrial, since you are so amazing and perfect!"
I'm not trying to paint anyone in the military with a broad brush here, just musing on the ways we as a society seem to elevate certain professions above others and then make assumptions about the people in those roles.
cf. any technical experts, really. It's very easy to fall into the trap of assuming that since you're really good in your field, you're omniscient. It often tends to be the applied science people...
Someone that is a fighter pilot is perfectly capable of being suckered into a conspiracy theory. In addition, you might assume that since jet fighter pilots are also told that they are the best, smartest, most amazing people in the world that they will accept explanations for things that contradict their internal assessment of themselves. "No, that thing you saw wasn't just you being tired and hallucinating. The only thing it could be is something extra terrestrial, since you are so amazing and perfect!"
cf. any technical experts, really. It's very easy to fall into the trap of assuming that since you're really good in your field, you're omniscient. It often tends to be the applied science people who are particularly vulnerable to this (doctors, engineers and the like) since they do genuinely have to clear all sorts of barriers to even get their basic qualifications.
It’s an odd feeling when my doctor says something so confidently that I know is just flat wrong or really outdated. Like what are you supposed to do? Argue with the guy who has a medical degree? I...
It’s an odd feeling when my doctor says something so confidently that I know is just flat wrong or really outdated. Like what are you supposed to do? Argue with the guy who has a medical degree? I just say nothing and accept that even experts can be wrong and that I shouldn’t completely lose faith in his abilities.
Yup. I think, speaking as someone wiht a background in the humanities, my training makes it much more evident that the more I learn, the more I have to learn, and that there are in many cases...
Yup. I think, speaking as someone wiht a background in the humanities, my training makes it much more evident that the more I learn, the more I have to learn, and that there are in many cases multiple valid answers to various questions.
i mean he also worked at NGA and NRO. Grusch was a decorated combat officer within the USAF during the War in Afghanistan and is a veteran of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) and...
i mean he also worked at NGA and NRO.
Grusch was a decorated combat officer within the USAF during the War in Afghanistan and is a veteran of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) and the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).[3] From 2019 to 2021, he was the representative of the NRO to the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force.[4] From late 2021 to July 2022, he was the co-lead for UAP analysis at the NGA and its representative to the task force
He also made a handful of bombastic claims which he would not repeat while under oath. The only reason for that is that he knows they're a lie and could be disproven.
He also made a handful of bombastic claims which he would not repeat while under oath. The only reason for that is that he knows they're a lie and could be disproven.
Most of the evidence he would be able to share would have to be behind closed doors. And he literally offered to share that evidence with the ranking members right at the hearing was over. It...
Most of the evidence he would be able to share would have to be behind closed doors. And he literally offered to share that evidence with the ranking members right at the hearing was over.
It remains to be seen what he provides Congress, and what comes of it, but to call it a nothingburger just because he didn't roll an allen cadaver into the hearing seems a bit harsh.
Apparently there are established methods for handling situations such as this, and those involved are following those established methods. He's already provided classified details to the Inspector...
Apparently there are established methods for handling situations such as this, and those involved are following those established methods. He's already provided classified details to the Inspector General, including names and specifics, as well as providing the same classified details in private testimonies that spread out over 11 hours to the proper Congressional members in Secured Compartmented Information Facilities (SCIF), likely in rooms set aside for this exact thing in Congress, in order to establish the veracity of his claims and move forward to this public hearing.
All of this has been in process for allegedly a year now, and he's been patient in respecting the proper channels. Because of these select Congressional members having the ability to already independently follow up on his claims and verify his testimony, the public hearing was permitted and scheduled.
We are here at this point now in order to move to the next phase which is establishing a legal precedent for this information to be requested and investigated by a seperate Congressional oversight committee, and to require those departments in possession of this information to hand it over or to provide specific concrete proof in a SCIF to those committees as to why each requested item must remain classified. In other words, this all is unfolding in the exact way it should for Congress to do its intended job of checking in for possible crimes - misappropriation of funds and mishandling of the information, for example.
This gives a whole new perspective on the situation. People are often very dismissive and I hadn't a clue how this process works. However, I'm skeptical of the outcome of this whole thing.
This gives a whole new perspective on the situation. People are often very dismissive and I hadn't a clue how this process works.
However, I'm skeptical of the outcome of this whole thing.
He stated he cannot disclose it in a public hearing, and that was his response to many similar questions. He can disclose it to properly cleared people in a properly secured space, and so far...
He stated he cannot disclose it in a public hearing, and that was his response to many similar questions.
He can disclose it to properly cleared people in a properly secured space, and so far demonstrates a willingness to do so.
It seems to me that people expected this to reveal details about aliens and stuff, when the point seemed more to get the ball rolling on a larger inquiry. The proper way to do this, I would assume, would be to disclose information to congress in an appropriate, secure venue.
I don't think he would be protected by whistlebower rules if he just ran his mouth on top-secret programs in a public hearing.
That someone in his position was willing to testify under oath is possibly the most credible piece of evidence for ET contact ever. Which is such a low bar to clear. I mean, anything that makes me...
That someone in his position was willing to testify under oath is possibly the most credible piece of evidence for ET contact ever.
Which is such a low bar to clear. I mean, anything that makes me think there's a non-zero chance this could be something is kinda remarkable. But it's still pretty much zero.
Pinky swearing to god isn't exactly a good way of ensuring someone isn't lying, even if they are religious. Not only that, many people use the sanctity of oath as a means of adding credibility to...
Pinky swearing to god isn't exactly a good way of ensuring someone isn't lying, even if they are religious. Not only that, many people use the sanctity of oath as a means of adding credibility to their statement, even if it is utterly false.
Cops and witnesses do it all the time, as do politicians, generals, and even the President of the United States, multiple in fact.
And as we see on a near daily basis, you can get away with blatant lies and demonstrable falsehoods as long as its something people want to hear. Even if this person is found to be lying under oath, and is punished for it, he will certainly be celebrated and rewarded by those who want to believe him, and many of those people are in high positions of power, within that very Congress.
The oath isn't sworn for your credibility to God. It carries weight because if you're lying, then you can be prosecuted for the lies. It carries legal weight.
The oath isn't sworn for your credibility to God. It carries weight because if you're lying, then you can be prosecuted for the lies.
It is clear that this report is of little importance given the lack of any hard data. It is just one person saying things. Essentially meaningless without any data or corroborating testimonies.
It is clear that this report is of little importance given the lack of any hard data. It is just one person saying things. Essentially meaningless without any data or corroborating testimonies.
I mean, I get it. The world is quite bad right now. I just wish we wouldn't give this much attention to a few UFO believers. It's hardly anything new, they've been around as long as I can think,...
I mean, I get it. The world is quite bad right now.
I just wish we wouldn't give this much attention to a few UFO believers. It's hardly anything new, they've been around as long as I can think, and that's since the 80s.
All it does is enable these people, in turn leading to a whole lot more of these "reports". Sigh.
I read r/ufo on reddit and there are a lot of commenters that are really mad that people aren’t paying attention to this story. As if people are refusing to look up and see a mothership floating...
I read r/ufo on reddit and there are a lot of commenters that are really mad that people aren’t paying attention to this story. As if people are refusing to look up and see a mothership floating above the White House. They don’t seem to understand that the whistleblower is just testifying under oath that he was told some stuff.
ehh, of all the kinds of people being enabled in the past decade, people being obseesed with extraterrestial life visiting earth won't even crack he top 100 kinds of problematic people today. May...
All it does is enable these people
ehh, of all the kinds of people being enabled in the past decade, people being obseesed with extraterrestial life visiting earth won't even crack he top 100 kinds of problematic people today. May have in the 90's, but that's the state of the world these days.
It's a common thing these days. I don't mind UFO believers getting moments in the spotlight. It's when all the flat earthers, moon landing deniers and anti-vaxers get given similar exposure it...
It's a common thing these days.
I don't mind UFO believers getting moments in the spotlight. It's when all the flat earthers, moon landing deniers and anti-vaxers get given similar exposure it becomes dangerous.
The BBC have landed in hot water a few times for giving a platform to these nutcases.
Unfortunately these people tend to be in similar crowds. r/conspiracy used to be just funny UFO stuff, and look at it now...
I don't mind UFO believers getting moments in the spotlight. It's when all the flat earthers, moon landing deniers and anti-vaxers get given similar exposure it becomes dangerous.
Unfortunately these people tend to be in similar crowds. r/conspiracy used to be just funny UFO stuff, and look at it now...
There's also 2 (a) - are too damn far away. The entire observable universe is 94 billion light years across, and contains somewhere around 1 or 2 times that many galaxies, each of which has around...
There's also 2 (a) - are too damn far away. The entire observable universe is 94 billion light years across, and contains somewhere around 1 or 2 times that many galaxies, each of which has around 100 million stars, each with their own planetary systems. But our observable universe is (likely) just an electron compared to the size of the entire universe, so if there are advanced alien societies out there, it is likely impossible to ever meet them.
Not to mention how little distance any of our coherent radio broadcasts have traveled through space. Even if another highly advanced civilization in our own galaxy is looking for other life, the...
Not to mention how little distance any of our coherent radio broadcasts have traveled through space. Even if another highly advanced civilization in our own galaxy is looking for other life, the odds of them being close enough to even clock earth as intelligent life is pretty slim.
In the context of the entire universe theres just no way. Assuming alians have visited earth at the very least would require the existence of FTL and a massive coincidence that other life was already so close.
Statistically, assuming we're the only intelligent life (of life in general) in the entire universe is greater hubris than believing the sun revolves around the earth. The corollary of "other life...
Statistically, assuming we're the only intelligent life (of life in general) in the entire universe is greater hubris than believing the sun revolves around the earth. The corollary of "other life in an enormous universe is inevitable," however, is that we're probably nowhere near enough to observe or visit each other. Even a hypothetical faster than light drive might not cut it over the incredible distance between two separate galaxies, for instance.
Note that "near enough" does not only mean by distance. And then you add how the creation of intelligent life might just be such a rare chance that it makes up for how big the universe is. After...
Note that "near enough" does not only mean by distance.
And then you add how the creation of intelligent life might just be such a rare chance that it makes up for how big the universe is. After all, if you can have a huge number in one direction, you can have a huge number the opposite direction, too.
And then that life has to be close enough to be able to see us. And happen at the same time, which is just laughably unlikely considering what brief a moment in time we as a lifeform occupy so far. We're the blink of an eye.
This is something I basically never see brought up in discussions about aliens. The distances are so vast you need to really consider time itself. At least according to Wikipedia, the estimated...
This is something I basically never see brought up in discussions about aliens.
The distances are so vast you need to really consider time itself. At least according to Wikipedia, the estimated origin of life based on molecular clocks is around 4 billion years ago, possibly older while observations suggest that the current diameter of the observable universe around Earth is 93 billion light-years. That's already such a small fraction, assuming those hypothetical aliens could even observe signs of such early life on Earth.
Anyone observing from a "mere" 3.5 million light years away would only see the Australopithecus, most certainly not any signs of civilization yet. And all that assuming they could even observe that much detail from that far away, but they're aliens after all :)
Maybe you could pick some more obvious signs of civilization, like changes in the atmosphere, maybe light pollution from cities being lit up at night, or radio waves, but that shortens the distance so much, the aliens would have to have already been basically in our back yard for them to even notice us.
Though they could have seen signs of oxygen 2 billion years ago and depending on how advanced (and bored) they are decided to head our way just in case something interesting evolves.
Though they could have seen signs of oxygen 2 billion years ago and depending on how advanced (and bored) they are decided to head our way just in case something interesting evolves.
Time is even more "brief" than most people realize. We had an effort to reach out and try to contact alien civilizations (SETI) by either listening for signals or sending one of our own. From...
Time is even more "brief" than most people realize.
We had an effort to reach out and try to contact alien civilizations (SETI) by either listening for signals or sending one of our own. From Wikipedia, it seems like we sent a signal out in 1974 (which will be our generic example). We will assume the signal was sent to a nearby star (since the original signal was sent to something about 25,000 light years away). We will assume the star is a more reasonable 25 light years away.
It takes 25 years for the signal to arrive at the example star (we will assume has alien life). The life there has to be able to receive the signal and so happen to be listening in at the time. They also have to be able to send a signal back and have the appropriate will and desire to do so. Also, they would need time to prepare and send the signal. They send the signal for about 25 minutes constantly.
It takes 25 years for the signal to travel back. It has been 50 years since the signal was sent. Back on Earth... it is likely we are not listening. For examples, we aren't listening to "that specific star", the political will has changed and defunded the program, the radio telescope that would listen to such things does not exist anymore (in other words - Arecibo Telescope), and maybe the equipment just had a scheduled maintenance cycle where it was turned off for about an hour.
Regardless, we only had 25 minutes to hear the signal and it would have arrived 50 years or a bit more after we sent the original signal. Missing that signal means that two civilizations never contact each other. In other words, that brief moment of time was only a very specific 25 minutes. When we were sending a signal in 1974, we sent it to something 25,000 light years away. While it isn't impossible, I highly doubt that anyone will be sitting around here 50,000 years in the future listening for a response.
I read somewhere years ago that if you took away disease and old age, people would live an average of 800 years. Not forever, because the chance of having an accident catches up with you....
I read somewhere years ago that if you took away disease and old age, people would live an average of 800 years. Not forever, because the chance of having an accident catches up with you.
Civilizations have life cycles just like people. Something happens, and time and distance are so vast that they don’t see each other even if there are a lot of them.
Not necessarily -- it's plausible that we truly are alone. Yes, the observable is unfathomably large, but it's also possible that the emergence of civilizations is unfathomably rare. We can't...
Statistically, assuming we're the only intelligent life (of life in general) in the entire universe is greater hubris than believing the sun revolves around the earth.
Yes, the observable is unfathomably large, but it's also possible that the emergence of civilizations is unfathomably rare. We can't appeal to our mere existence as proof since it isn't meaningful to talk about the counterfactual (how could we verify the impossibility of intelligent life if we didn't exist?). All our existence shows is that intelligent life isn't technically impossible.
As the paper I linked demonstrates, we can't even meaningfully give an order of magnitude estimate for the frequency of advanced civilizations -- the uncertainties in the parameters span too many orders of magnitude.
Thing is I'm not sure if it matters. unless the odds are zero and we are a true anomaly. The number could be a trillion trillion and that would still give give some chance for a few other...
As the paper I linked demonstrates, we can't even meaningfully give an order of magnitude estimate for the frequency of advanced civilizations
Thing is I'm not sure if it matters. unless the odds are zero and we are a true anomaly. The number could be a trillion trillion and that would still give give some chance for a few other civilizations. That's more than stars in the universe, but there are likely more planets than stars to begin with. Likweise, our models for the Drake equation assume parameters biased towards what human civilizations needed. There may be completely different equations of life that produce completely different beings beyond our imagination, but still able to communicate amongst one another.
I could only really believe if it we extend the theory to living advanced civilizations. We're not too far off from destroying ourselves, so I can believe other advanced civilizations either did so earlier or simply lived longer than met the doom we're approaching.
Well, that's the thing. Even if you assume there have been 10^20 opportunities for intelligent life to develop, if the probability per event is only 10^-30, it still isn't likely to happen. You...
The number could be a trillion trillion and that would still give give some chance for a few other civilizations.
Well, that's the thing. Even if you assume there have been 10^20 opportunities for intelligent life to develop, if the probability per event is only 10^-30, it still isn't likely to happen.
Likweise, our models for the Drake equation assume parameters biased towards what human civilizations needed.
You can think of the Drake equation as being a lower bound. But unless these alternate pathways are significantly more probable/more numerous than the known path towards intelligent life (and we have no reason to suspect this), then the Drake equation will still serve as a rough estimate.
For what its worth, a subset of the authors have another paper that doesn't depend on the Drake equation. It's a little closer to being model independent.
I could only really believe if it we extend the theory to living advanced civilizations. We're not too far off from destroying ourselves, so I can believe other advanced civilizations either did so earlier or simply lived longer than met the doom we're approaching.
To be fair, the Drake equation is concerned with the number of active intelligent civilizations (with the usual physics caveat that simultaneity is not absolute, so "active" is not technically a rigorous term if we want to be pedantic). If you relax this restriction, then the probability should increase by some orders of magnitudes. A naive doomsday argument would estimate human civilization lasting between 5000 around 7 million years (assuming it isn't actually infinite), while the universe will probably remain compatible with human-like evolution for trillions of years (but there are some strong non-linearities here if you use the Drake equation -- the observable universe will have significantly contracted by then).
So if you consider this new distribution (probability that N intelligent civilizations will exist in the observable universe at some point in time), it should be greater than the distribution of active civilization by 6-10 orders of magnitude. This is a significant increase, but not necessarily enough -- it really just depends on how unlikely the other factors are.
Personally, seeing how earth has gone through several life ending cataclysms and life has continued, my guess is more along the lines that life needs a lot of unlikely things to happen. Which in...
Personally, seeing how earth has gone through several life ending cataclysms and life has continued, my guess is more along the lines that life needs a lot of unlikely things to happen. Which in the entirety of the universe, even if I assume 0.0000000000000000000001% of the planets fit the necessary stats to harbour life as we know it, that’s still quite a few out there. I do think it’s just likely that a) civilisations eventually wipe themselves before reaching the tech lvls for interstellar travel b) intelligence and sentience as we experience it is an unlikely trait among life. Most of the life out there is probably in microscopic form or developed without need for sentience. So we might as well be trying to communicate with crows across space... c) in the case sentient life as we know it does exist, i find it extremely unlikely that we would cross paths. Universe is around 13b years, earth is around 4. It didn’t take us that long relatively to get to where we are so there could’ve been at least 2 earth cycles of perfect life conditions (idk a lot about the universe but bc of that I’ll assume the first 4b years were too chaotic for life to thrive (this ties in with b)
End of aimless rant, sorry I just watched the 3 body problem and I’m all in for aliens
Depending on exactly what this number means, it might actually be too small. (Is it the probability that a planet contains life? Or is it merely the probability that a planet has Earth-like...
Which in the entirety of the universe, even if I assume 0.0000000000000000000001% of the planets fit the necessary stats to harbour life as we know it, that’s still quite a few out there.
Depending on exactly what this number means, it might actually be too small. (Is it the probability that a planet contains life? Or is it merely the probability that a planet has Earth-like conditions?) Note that
0.0000000000000000000001% = 10^-24, compared to the estimated 10^24 stars in the observable universe (I'm guessing this number isn't a coincidence?). The average number of planets per star is thought to be greater than 1, but it probably isn't much more than 10.
So even if you take 10^-24 to be the probability that a given planet contains intelligent life, there would still remain roughly a 5% - 50% chance that we're alone.
Not gonna lie I just wrote a lot of zeroes to point at how even in extremely unlikely number of earth like condition planets existing, the universe is so big the unlikely thing is we are alone....
Not gonna lie I just wrote a lot of zeroes to point at how even in extremely unlikely number of earth like condition planets existing, the universe is so big the unlikely thing is we are alone. Less unlikely is that we either find each other or coexist during the same time at similar tech lvls that could communicate with each other
I'd even go on the crazier side: they are interested but are much more advanced than us. They could observe in a way we won't be able to comprehend for another few centuries, if that. I'm still...
I'd even go on the crazier side: they are interested but are much more advanced than us. They could observe in a way we won't be able to comprehend for another few centuries, if that.
I'm still ambivalent if Earth was ever visited, but I doubt in 2023 the US govt. can cover up something like this from the entire world unless we're talking super advanced species. Think less traditional UFO crash landing and more of some executive discovering a wormhole warping tiny being. But something that advanced probably wouldn't be caught so easily.
One possible scam not to rule out is that this is actually a way for NGAD and other military programs to get more funding. Pick someone trustworthy to psyop into believing they have one degree of separation from those who are involved with non-human origin UAPs, and get them to convince congress to concentrate more funding into parts of the government that want to build more experimental aircraft (and get the public to buy defense stocks).
Also many of the politicians involved are in a a political party that’s spent decades sowing distrust in the government they run because they exist mostly to cut government programs except the...
Also many of the politicians involved are in a a political party that’s spent decades sowing distrust in the government they run because they exist mostly to cut government programs except the military.
It seems fitting. Would you think it goes in ~science or ~tech? Do we simply throw our hands up and jam it in ~misc? I feel this is one of the situations where it's best to let people filter out...
Topics about the universe, space exploration, and related subjects such as rocketry and satellites.
It seems fitting. Would you think it goes in ~science or ~tech? Do we simply throw our hands up and jam it in ~misc? I feel this is one of the situations where it's best to let people filter out the tag instead of meander over where it truly fits.
You have a point that there isn’t a good tag for it, but as I’ve noted before, the problem with having it in ~space is that there isn’t much evidence that the things come from space and almost all...
You have a point that there isn’t a good tag for it, but as I’ve noted before, the problem with having it in ~space is that there isn’t much evidence that the things come from space and almost all the sightings happened in the earth’s atmosphere.
Congress really doesn't have more pressing matters to deal with? Rising inflation, an entire generation being locked out of home ownership, people literally unable to afford food because of rising...
Congress really doesn't have more pressing matters to deal with?
Rising inflation, an entire generation being locked out of home ownership, people literally unable to afford food because of rising food prices, declining life expectancy, frequent mass shootings, rise in hate-based crimes, etc. < UFO conspiracy theorist apparently
Isn't the other angle of this sort of thing that it's all just a distraction? Although I think this would still be quite a convoluted way to to about it. I'm surprised there's even a court hearing...
Isn't the other angle of this sort of thing that it's all just a distraction?
Although I think this would still be quite a convoluted way to to about it. I'm surprised there's even a court hearing to begin with.
Of course they do, but they're also capable of doing multiple things simultaneously (or maybe I should say not doing multiple things simultaneously -- Congress is the least effective branch of...
Congress really doesn't have more pressing matters to deal with?
Of course they do, but they're also capable of doing multiple things simultaneously (or maybe I should say not doing multiple things simultaneously -- Congress is the least effective branch of government anyway).
Sure they can do multiple things, this should still be on the bottom of their list of priorities. There's no way there should be any attention being paid to this. There are so many issues that...
Sure they can do multiple things, this should still be on the bottom of their list of priorities. There's no way there should be any attention being paid to this. There are so many issues that require attention that even working on multiple things, this shouldn't be given anywhere near the attention it's getting from Congress.
I believe in alien life, intelligent or non-intelligent, I believe it exists somewhere in the universe. I even believe that there may be alien civilizations out there who engage in space travel,...
I believe in alien life, intelligent or non-intelligent, I believe it exists somewhere in the universe. I even believe that there may be alien civilizations out there who engage in space travel, perhaps even having explored or settled on planets or moons within their star system. You could perhaps even get me to buy into very advanced alien civilizations having the ability to travel through space at a significant speed that travel to another star system is possible given a decade or two.
I am however incredibly, unbelievably skeptical that aliens have ever visited Earth, as cool as I think it would be if there were even a kernal of truth to it I just can't see it. Even if I think of a hypothetical civilization, millions of years old, with technology that is so far beyond our understanding of science and the universe that it'd be like giving a caveman a jet fighter I still can't see it.
Don't get me wrong though it's a little fun to get lost in the drama of it all for a few days.
I reckon any genuine unexplainable UAP's are black projects testing secret military aircraft, it explains the tendancy for sightings to cluster around the US, Canada, China, Russia, and some countries in Europe.
Obviously if any of this turns out to be true then I'll happily change my tune but until I see irrefutable proof, or a world leader gets on stage and genuinely announces that we are not alone I'll remain skeptical.
Screw it, here's my take: I've suspected since day one that Grusch was chosen as a "spokesperson" to help bring the issue to light so others can step forward, especially since he's openly admitted...
Screw it, here's my take: I've suspected since day one that Grusch was chosen as a "spokesperson" to help bring the issue to light so others can step forward, especially since he's openly admitted to only having heard everything second-hand. His reputation gives him more credibility than most people who've made this claim among those who were involved in the initial interview, and made it more likely for him to get to Congress.
That said, I also don't know if he and the others actually believe in aliens, or if they're using it as a smokescreen.
Another user made the point that he's mentioned a potential secret office or department without any government oversight (from Congress, the president, and even the DoD) supposedly dedicated to UAPs. That may be the real purpose of the hearing: to have an excuse for Congress to get access to the documents from that office, so they can figure out what it does.
I'm personally starting to lean towards that direction myself over "aliens are real", since all of these automatic dismissals show why that's actually a surprisingly good cover for a top-secret office/department. There are always going to be rumors of such a department existing, so of course it would get dismissed by anyone who hears it.
Whatever the case, I do think it's reasonable to expect that Grusch wouldn't reveal any actual evidence he may have in the public hearing. Not revealing potentially top secret information just seems like common sense, and he doesn't have the authority to declare what is and isn't classified. It's better to reveal it in private so Congress and other officials can make the call on what parts should be classified. And that does seem to be the ultimate goal of this hearing: to provide an opening to get this information, whatever it is, to Congress after it was previously concealed from a majority of the government.
So to sum up: no clue if aliens are real or if it's a cover for something else. I do think there's some actual reason they're having this hearing though. If it IS about secret alien research, then neat! If not, just hope it's not something sinister and it turns out to be fairly boring/mundane.
I think that without a doubt, there has to be aliens outside of our solar system, given just how mind-bogglingly large the Universe appears to be, for life to have just been this one weird fluke...
I think that without a doubt, there has to be aliens outside of our solar system, given just how mind-bogglingly large the Universe appears to be, for life to have just been this one weird fluke on this one planet in a very unassuming corner of an unremarkable galaxy, while Life itself seems to show up almost everywhere we look on the planet. So Life is out there, but whether it can travel the distance between stars in a journey that would likely take hundreds/thousands of years is a different question entirely, and I doubt something they'd undertake lightly. They'd have to have access to some sort of cryo-sleep technology or have generation ships to even think of sending their own people. If we were to even be seeing alien technology in our star system though, chances are we wouldn't even be dealing with the aliens themselves, but some sort of drones just sent out for reconnaissance, probe droids. Only after some hundreds of years and with a specific purpose in mind, would the aliens probably even come here after that. So unless first contact was made centuries ago, if we've only just now seen aliens, we'd just be seeing a low-level representation of them, what their technology looked like hundreds of years ago when they sent the probes out.
I agree with your points, but would like to point out there is some anthropological bias in your thought process. We should not assume that alien life has the same limitations and requirements...
I agree with your points, but would like to point out there is some anthropological bias in your thought process. We should not assume that alien life has the same limitations and requirements that humans do. Our biology evolved to thrive in the conditions of earth, but a species that evolved under different conditions may live for millennia or may not require sleep. There are species on earth that are functionally immortal, and other species that live for centuries. It’s entirely possible that an alien species with interstellar travel could have no issues sending a small or 1-man crew to explore the universe for thousands of years before returning home. If we’re to the point of speculating about alien life, there’s no reason to assume their existence resembles ours in any way.
Also to piggyback off of this an extremely advanced civilization may have ways of space travel we can't even begin to conceive of yet. Who knows honestly? We certainly don't fully. But we already...
Also to piggyback off of this an extremely advanced civilization may have ways of space travel we can't even begin to conceive of yet. Who knows honestly? We certainly don't fully. But we already have concepts and theories of wormholes for example. They may use those mundanely like we use cars and subways etc hypothetically.
And I saying I believe this is what is happening? No, but is it impossible? There's no way to be sure of anything yet.
But it does beg the question that if this is the case why would they bother observing or visiting us? Is life potentially extremely rare in the universe and that makes us interesting? Or is it more common than we can currently conceive of and this is like us going to a remote region just to see what flora and fauna is there for documenting purposes? That's still making human based assumptions like you've pointed out of course.
All I can say is given we can only understand and observe so much of the universe and it's workings it doesn't make sense to discount the possibility (not saying you are, just those that are) at the very least. So I remain in the middle until more facts and evidence are presented.
Betteridge's law of headlines is an adage that states: "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no." I think about this law a lot (although I have to google it every...
Betteridge's law of headlines is an adage that states: "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no."
I think about this law a lot (although I have to google it every time to remember the name)
This was my immediate thought as well, as it is every time I see a question mark headline. Glad you googled it for me, I also can never remember the name. It's crazy how often it's proven to be an...
This was my immediate thought as well, as it is every time I see a question mark headline. Glad you googled it for me, I also can never remember the name. It's crazy how often it's proven to be an accurate, nice law.
Yes, but they avoid the US specifically. From Australia to China to the Taliban to Bob from work to the Dolphin Dominion, every other power is visited on the regular and covers it all up. The US...
Yes, but they avoid the US specifically. From Australia to China to the Taliban to Bob from work to the Dolphin Dominion, every other power is visited on the regular and covers it all up. The US makes shit up to not feel singled out.
Underneath the snark (which someone flagged as noise) is an interesting question. Why do all these conspiracy theories seem to come from America? It's ethnocentric to claim only America gets alien...
Underneath the snark (which someone flagged as noise) is an interesting question.
Why do all these conspiracy theories seem to come from America?
It's ethnocentric to claim only America gets alien tech.
It's absurd to say other countries are better at covering this up than America.
Simplest explanation is Americans just love a good conspiracy theory.
There are definitely other countries who love their little green men stories, Argentina is a famous example. But I also agree that there is something specifically American in these stories. A huge...
There are definitely other countries who love their little green men stories, Argentina is a famous example. But I also agree that there is something specifically American in these stories. A huge chunk of American culture is rooted in the post WW2 environment. UFOs are basically their folklore.
If the government knew about aliens being here and were covering it up then the presidents would know about it. There's no way Trump wouldn't have blabbed that all over his social media.
Either that or someone would have posted it on the War Thunder forums
I think it is absolutely plausible that the military industrial complex keeps secrets from Congress and presidents. I'm not making a statement either way on whether aliens are here, but I think it's a bit naive to assume that the president automatically gets a full download of every little government secret upon taking the oath.
There are documented cases where the military industrial complex keeps secrets from congress and presidents. The original document which became the pentagon papers were kept secret from the president and congress.
Sorry for the low quality video of the source
https://youtu.be/w_2xxpgVPdA?t=111
Watergate scandal is the classic example of this, only replace industrial complex with clandestine agencies.
I may be wrong but wasn't watergate carried out by the presidency? Like weren't the people who carried it out called "the white house plumbers"
I haven't studied Watergate in detail but from what I recall from a YouTube documentary, Watergate was about President Nixon and his govt held responsible for a variety of sinister things happening in US and globally such as the coup carried out in some Latin American countries by CIA's support. Nixon, etc. just claimed that they didn't knew CIA was doing all those things, something like that.
I don't think that is Watergate. Watergate is specifically about President Nixon putting wiretaps into the DNC head office in the Watergate business plaza, hence the name. It also goes into how the people who carried it out were ordered by people close to the president, how it was covered up by the president, and how he lied about it.
To clarify, it has never been conclusively shown that Nixon was aware of the break-in before it occurred. But he definitely did participate in the cover-up after it was discovered.
What you're saying is obviously non-factual from a quick 10 second search and review of a Wikipedia article introduction. If you're not sure about something, please check first.
The intelligence agencys were already holding back information after he got informants killed.
Good point, I’m sure the intelligence agencies didn’t want to risk the lives of their deeply embedded alien informants.
lol, i mean if they can't trust him with human lives i don't think they would trust him with non-human lives that would effect human lives.
Why the facetious comment? Just curious? It seems like numerous politicians on both sides of the aisle seem to take this seriously but the internet at large doesn't want to. Care to explain your thought process?
It’s a variety of things but mainly that people seem to hold dueling opinions and on our world governments. One minute, they are so incompetent that they can’t fix simple problems and are so bogged down in bureaucracy they can’t lift a hand without needing a committee vote. The next they are so incredibly competent that they can hide extraterrestrial beings from billions of people with billions of cameras attached to their hips with a group of people who never leak any information ever.
We just had a 20 something guardsman leak Ukraine War secrets on discord to gain clout with his teenaged following. I find the likelihood that there isn’t a single person involved with this global coverup that wouldn’t do something half as dumb sounding with literal aliens from outer space?
If governments knew about aliens each nations space program budget would easily outstrip their military budget.
How far into his term was President Pullman when he was need-to-knowed in on Area 51?
That is very true about Trump in particular and conspiracies in general. It is highly unlikely that something like that would remain a secret for that long. I would expect a torrent of whistleblowers by that point.
Presidents are temporary.
I'm absolutely certain some things are a strictly need to know, and that doesn't includes the president.... Especially 45.
I'm curious, people seem to be putting a lot of weight behind the fact that this was said under oath; and therefore it can't be false.
But it seemed like 100% of what he said he's claimed to have heard from other people within the government. But not a single name, project, institution or document was mentioned. What kind of whistleblower is that?
AOC essentially asked where to even begin entering this rabbit hole, only to be told he couldn't talk about that in a public setting. So, only when not under oath on this hearing, ain't that a bit convenient?
To me this whole hearing seemed like a big nothingburger.
It's a good way to get around the whole "under oath" thing, no? Nothing he says has any value since it's all hearsay, but claiming to have heard that hearsay is also inherently non-falsifiable a claim.
Yeah, the only time he seemed to be willing to talk about anything substantial was outside of precisely where it would've mattered.
I doubt this hearing would've ever happened if it wasn't public.
Witnesses are still under oath in closed door sessions.
It's also interesting to me that people conflate someone's job or employer with some extra level of trustworthiness.
For example, we assume that jet fighter pilots are the smartest, most trustworthy, best people in the world. They are also in the military which we typically also assume means they have some additional level of selflessness or other attributes. These ideas are probably a direct result of military propaganda, but that's a discussion for another time.
On the other hand, we all probably know someone from high school or elsewhere that entered the military because they didn't have any other options, weren't smart enough for college, etc. which flies in the face of our assumptions about military members in general.
Someone that is a fighter pilot is perfectly capable of being suckered into a conspiracy theory. In addition, you might assume that since jet fighter pilots are also told that they are the best, smartest, most amazing people in the world that they will accept explanations for things that contradict their internal assessment of themselves. "No, that thing you saw wasn't just you being tired and hallucinating. The only thing it could be is something extra terrestrial, since you are so amazing and perfect!"
I'm not trying to paint anyone in the military with a broad brush here, just musing on the ways we as a society seem to elevate certain professions above others and then make assumptions about the people in those roles.
cf. any technical experts, really. It's very easy to fall into the trap of assuming that since you're really good in your field, you're omniscient. It often tends to be the applied science people who are particularly vulnerable to this (doctors, engineers and the like) since they do genuinely have to clear all sorts of barriers to even get their basic qualifications.
It’s an odd feeling when my doctor says something so confidently that I know is just flat wrong or really outdated. Like what are you supposed to do? Argue with the guy who has a medical degree? I just say nothing and accept that even experts can be wrong and that I shouldn’t completely lose faith in his abilities.
Yup. I think, speaking as someone wiht a background in the humanities, my training makes it much more evident that the more I learn, the more I have to learn, and that there are in many cases multiple valid answers to various questions.
Being that dismissive is rather pessimistic in my opinion.
i mean he also worked at NGA and NRO.
Grusch was a decorated combat officer within the USAF during the War in Afghanistan and is a veteran of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) and the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).[3] From 2019 to 2021, he was the representative of the NRO to the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force.[4] From late 2021 to July 2022, he was the co-lead for UAP analysis at the NGA and its representative to the task force
He also made a handful of bombastic claims which he would not repeat while under oath. The only reason for that is that he knows they're a lie and could be disproven.
Most of the evidence he would be able to share would have to be behind closed doors. And he literally offered to share that evidence with the ranking members right at the hearing was over.
It remains to be seen what he provides Congress, and what comes of it, but to call it a nothingburger just because he didn't roll an allen cadaver into the hearing seems a bit harsh.
Apparently there are established methods for handling situations such as this, and those involved are following those established methods. He's already provided classified details to the Inspector General, including names and specifics, as well as providing the same classified details in private testimonies that spread out over 11 hours to the proper Congressional members in Secured Compartmented Information Facilities (SCIF), likely in rooms set aside for this exact thing in Congress, in order to establish the veracity of his claims and move forward to this public hearing.
All of this has been in process for allegedly a year now, and he's been patient in respecting the proper channels. Because of these select Congressional members having the ability to already independently follow up on his claims and verify his testimony, the public hearing was permitted and scheduled.
We are here at this point now in order to move to the next phase which is establishing a legal precedent for this information to be requested and investigated by a seperate Congressional oversight committee, and to require those departments in possession of this information to hand it over or to provide specific concrete proof in a SCIF to those committees as to why each requested item must remain classified. In other words, this all is unfolding in the exact way it should for Congress to do its intended job of checking in for possible crimes - misappropriation of funds and mishandling of the information, for example.
This gives a whole new perspective on the situation. People are often very dismissive and I hadn't a clue how this process works.
However, I'm skeptical of the outcome of this whole thing.
Man, I know it's silly for people to risk their life for Aliens, but if it was truly real, name-dropping some documents could've gone a very long way.
He stated he cannot disclose it in a public hearing, and that was his response to many similar questions.
He can disclose it to properly cleared people in a properly secured space, and so far demonstrates a willingness to do so.
It seems to me that people expected this to reveal details about aliens and stuff, when the point seemed more to get the ball rolling on a larger inquiry. The proper way to do this, I would assume, would be to disclose information to congress in an appropriate, secure venue.
I don't think he would be protected by whistlebower rules if he just ran his mouth on top-secret programs in a public hearing.
That someone in his position was willing to testify under oath is possibly the most credible piece of evidence for ET contact ever.
Which is such a low bar to clear. I mean, anything that makes me think there's a non-zero chance this could be something is kinda remarkable. But it's still pretty much zero.
Pinky swearing to god isn't exactly a good way of ensuring someone isn't lying, even if they are religious. Not only that, many people use the sanctity of oath as a means of adding credibility to their statement, even if it is utterly false.
Cops and witnesses do it all the time, as do politicians, generals, and even the President of the United States, multiple in fact.
And as we see on a near daily basis, you can get away with blatant lies and demonstrable falsehoods as long as its something people want to hear. Even if this person is found to be lying under oath, and is punished for it, he will certainly be celebrated and rewarded by those who want to believe him, and many of those people are in high positions of power, within that very Congress.
The oath isn't sworn for your credibility to God. It carries weight because if you're lying, then you can be prosecuted for the lies.
It carries legal weight.
Except when it's 100% "I heard..." type hearsay statements that aren't proveably falsifiable as was the case here.
It is clear that this report is of little importance given the lack of any hard data. It is just one person saying things. Essentially meaningless without any data or corroborating testimonies.
I mean, I get it. The world is quite bad right now.
I just wish we wouldn't give this much attention to a few UFO believers. It's hardly anything new, they've been around as long as I can think, and that's since the 80s.
All it does is enable these people, in turn leading to a whole lot more of these "reports". Sigh.
I read r/ufo on reddit and there are a lot of commenters that are really mad that people aren’t paying attention to this story. As if people are refusing to look up and see a mothership floating above the White House. They don’t seem to understand that the whistleblower is just testifying under oath that he was told some stuff.
ehh, of all the kinds of people being enabled in the past decade, people being obseesed with extraterrestial life visiting earth won't even crack he top 100 kinds of problematic people today. May have in the 90's, but that's the state of the world these days.
It's a common thing these days.
I don't mind UFO believers getting moments in the spotlight. It's when all the flat earthers, moon landing deniers and anti-vaxers get given similar exposure it becomes dangerous.
The BBC have landed in hot water a few times for giving a platform to these nutcases.
Unfortunately these people tend to be in similar crowds. r/conspiracy used to be just funny UFO stuff, and look at it now...
I'm personally of the opinion that 1) aliens do exist and 2) they don't care about us/havent developed enough and 3) definitely have not visited us.
There's also 2 (a) - are too damn far away. The entire observable universe is 94 billion light years across, and contains somewhere around 1 or 2 times that many galaxies, each of which has around 100 million stars, each with their own planetary systems. But our observable universe is (likely) just an electron compared to the size of the entire universe, so if there are advanced alien societies out there, it is likely impossible to ever meet them.
Not to mention how little distance any of our coherent radio broadcasts have traveled through space. Even if another highly advanced civilization in our own galaxy is looking for other life, the odds of them being close enough to even clock earth as intelligent life is pretty slim.
In the context of the entire universe theres just no way. Assuming alians have visited earth at the very least would require the existence of FTL and a massive coincidence that other life was already so close.
Statistically, assuming we're the only intelligent life (of life in general) in the entire universe is greater hubris than believing the sun revolves around the earth. The corollary of "other life in an enormous universe is inevitable," however, is that we're probably nowhere near enough to observe or visit each other. Even a hypothetical faster than light drive might not cut it over the incredible distance between two separate galaxies, for instance.
Note that "near enough" does not only mean by distance.
And then you add how the creation of intelligent life might just be such a rare chance that it makes up for how big the universe is. After all, if you can have a huge number in one direction, you can have a huge number the opposite direction, too.
And then that life has to be close enough to be able to see us. And happen at the same time, which is just laughably unlikely considering what brief a moment in time we as a lifeform occupy so far. We're the blink of an eye.
This is something I basically never see brought up in discussions about aliens.
The distances are so vast you need to really consider time itself. At least according to Wikipedia, the estimated origin of life based on molecular clocks is around 4 billion years ago, possibly older while observations suggest that the current diameter of the observable universe around Earth is 93 billion light-years. That's already such a small fraction, assuming those hypothetical aliens could even observe signs of such early life on Earth.
Anyone observing from a "mere" 3.5 million light years away would only see the Australopithecus, most certainly not any signs of civilization yet. And all that assuming they could even observe that much detail from that far away, but they're aliens after all :)
Maybe you could pick some more obvious signs of civilization, like changes in the atmosphere, maybe light pollution from cities being lit up at night, or radio waves, but that shortens the distance so much, the aliens would have to have already been basically in our back yard for them to even notice us.
Though they could have seen signs of oxygen 2 billion years ago and depending on how advanced (and bored) they are decided to head our way just in case something interesting evolves.
Time is even more "brief" than most people realize.
We had an effort to reach out and try to contact alien civilizations (SETI) by either listening for signals or sending one of our own. From Wikipedia, it seems like we sent a signal out in 1974 (which will be our generic example). We will assume the signal was sent to a nearby star (since the original signal was sent to something about 25,000 light years away). We will assume the star is a more reasonable 25 light years away.
It takes 25 years for the signal to arrive at the example star (we will assume has alien life). The life there has to be able to receive the signal and so happen to be listening in at the time. They also have to be able to send a signal back and have the appropriate will and desire to do so. Also, they would need time to prepare and send the signal. They send the signal for about 25 minutes constantly.
It takes 25 years for the signal to travel back. It has been 50 years since the signal was sent. Back on Earth... it is likely we are not listening. For examples, we aren't listening to "that specific star", the political will has changed and defunded the program, the radio telescope that would listen to such things does not exist anymore (in other words - Arecibo Telescope), and maybe the equipment just had a scheduled maintenance cycle where it was turned off for about an hour.
Regardless, we only had 25 minutes to hear the signal and it would have arrived 50 years or a bit more after we sent the original signal. Missing that signal means that two civilizations never contact each other. In other words, that brief moment of time was only a very specific 25 minutes. When we were sending a signal in 1974, we sent it to something 25,000 light years away. While it isn't impossible, I highly doubt that anyone will be sitting around here 50,000 years in the future listening for a response.
I read somewhere years ago that if you took away disease and old age, people would live an average of 800 years. Not forever, because the chance of having an accident catches up with you.
Civilizations have life cycles just like people. Something happens, and time and distance are so vast that they don’t see each other even if there are a lot of them.
Not necessarily -- it's plausible that we truly are alone.
Yes, the observable is unfathomably large, but it's also possible that the emergence of civilizations is unfathomably rare. We can't appeal to our mere existence as proof since it isn't meaningful to talk about the counterfactual (how could we verify the impossibility of intelligent life if we didn't exist?). All our existence shows is that intelligent life isn't technically impossible.
As the paper I linked demonstrates, we can't even meaningfully give an order of magnitude estimate for the frequency of advanced civilizations -- the uncertainties in the parameters span too many orders of magnitude.
Thing is I'm not sure if it matters. unless the odds are zero and we are a true anomaly. The number could be a trillion trillion and that would still give give some chance for a few other civilizations. That's more than stars in the universe, but there are likely more planets than stars to begin with. Likweise, our models for the Drake equation assume parameters biased towards what human civilizations needed. There may be completely different equations of life that produce completely different beings beyond our imagination, but still able to communicate amongst one another.
I could only really believe if it we extend the theory to living advanced civilizations. We're not too far off from destroying ourselves, so I can believe other advanced civilizations either did so earlier or simply lived longer than met the doom we're approaching.
Well, that's the thing. Even if you assume there have been 10^20 opportunities for intelligent life to develop, if the probability per event is only 10^-30, it still isn't likely to happen.
You can think of the Drake equation as being a lower bound. But unless these alternate pathways are significantly more probable/more numerous than the known path towards intelligent life (and we have no reason to suspect this), then the Drake equation will still serve as a rough estimate.
For what its worth, a subset of the authors have another paper that doesn't depend on the Drake equation. It's a little closer to being model independent.
To be fair, the Drake equation is concerned with the number of active intelligent civilizations (with the usual physics caveat that simultaneity is not absolute, so "active" is not technically a rigorous term if we want to be pedantic). If you relax this restriction, then the probability should increase by some orders of magnitudes. A naive doomsday argument would estimate human civilization lasting between 5000 around 7 million years (assuming it isn't actually infinite), while the universe will probably remain compatible with human-like evolution for trillions of years (but there are some strong non-linearities here if you use the Drake equation -- the observable universe will have significantly contracted by then).
So if you consider this new distribution (probability that N intelligent civilizations will exist in the observable universe at some point in time), it should be greater than the distribution of active civilization by 6-10 orders of magnitude. This is a significant increase, but not necessarily enough -- it really just depends on how unlikely the other factors are.
Personally, seeing how earth has gone through several life ending cataclysms and life has continued, my guess is more along the lines that life needs a lot of unlikely things to happen. Which in the entirety of the universe, even if I assume 0.0000000000000000000001% of the planets fit the necessary stats to harbour life as we know it, that’s still quite a few out there. I do think it’s just likely that a) civilisations eventually wipe themselves before reaching the tech lvls for interstellar travel b) intelligence and sentience as we experience it is an unlikely trait among life. Most of the life out there is probably in microscopic form or developed without need for sentience. So we might as well be trying to communicate with crows across space... c) in the case sentient life as we know it does exist, i find it extremely unlikely that we would cross paths. Universe is around 13b years, earth is around 4. It didn’t take us that long relatively to get to where we are so there could’ve been at least 2 earth cycles of perfect life conditions (idk a lot about the universe but bc of that I’ll assume the first 4b years were too chaotic for life to thrive (this ties in with b)
End of aimless rant, sorry I just watched the 3 body problem and I’m all in for aliens
Depending on exactly what this number means, it might actually be too small. (Is it the probability that a planet contains life? Or is it merely the probability that a planet has Earth-like conditions?) Note that
0.0000000000000000000001% = 10^-24, compared to the estimated 10^24 stars in the observable universe (I'm guessing this number isn't a coincidence?). The average number of planets per star is thought to be greater than 1, but it probably isn't much more than 10.
So even if you take 10^-24 to be the probability that a given planet contains intelligent life, there would still remain roughly a 5% - 50% chance that we're alone.
Not gonna lie I just wrote a lot of zeroes to point at how even in extremely unlikely number of earth like condition planets existing, the universe is so big the unlikely thing is we are alone. Less unlikely is that we either find each other or coexist during the same time at similar tech lvls that could communicate with each other
That is an amusing coincidence then! You managed to accidentally choose the minimum probability that would still prove your point. :p
That’s amusing! It’s also a happy coincidence that it happened to be you who read and replied with the skill set to recognise that!
I'd even go on the crazier side: they are interested but are much more advanced than us. They could observe in a way we won't be able to comprehend for another few centuries, if that.
I'm still ambivalent if Earth was ever visited, but I doubt in 2023 the US govt. can cover up something like this from the entire world unless we're talking super advanced species. Think less traditional UFO crash landing and more of some executive discovering a wormhole warping tiny being. But something that advanced probably wouldn't be caught so easily.
You had me in the first half, not gunna lie.
Man I am far too used to people saying crazy things on reddit.
x-posting one of my comments
Also many of the politicians involved are in a a political party that’s spent decades sowing distrust in the government they run because they exist mostly to cut government programs except the military.
Agreed we already have several threads on this topic and really don't need another. And I am doubtful this belongs in ~space anyway.
It seems fitting. Would you think it goes in ~science or ~tech? Do we simply throw our hands up and jam it in ~misc? I feel this is one of the situations where it's best to let people filter out the tag instead of meander over where it truly fits.
You have a point that there isn’t a good tag for it, but as I’ve noted before, the problem with having it in ~space is that there isn’t much evidence that the things come from space and almost all the sightings happened in the earth’s atmosphere.
Congress really doesn't have more pressing matters to deal with?
Rising inflation, an entire generation being locked out of home ownership, people literally unable to afford food because of rising food prices, declining life expectancy, frequent mass shootings, rise in hate-based crimes, etc. < UFO conspiracy theorist apparently
Isn't the other angle of this sort of thing that it's all just a distraction?
Although I think this would still be quite a convoluted way to to about it. I'm surprised there's even a court hearing to begin with.
Definitely I can see it being used as a distraction and that is still incredibly concerning.
Of course they do, but they're also capable of doing multiple things simultaneously (or maybe I should say not doing multiple things simultaneously -- Congress is the least effective branch of government anyway).
Sure they can do multiple things, this should still be on the bottom of their list of priorities. There's no way there should be any attention being paid to this. There are so many issues that require attention that even working on multiple things, this shouldn't be given anywhere near the attention it's getting from Congress.
I believe in alien life, intelligent or non-intelligent, I believe it exists somewhere in the universe. I even believe that there may be alien civilizations out there who engage in space travel, perhaps even having explored or settled on planets or moons within their star system. You could perhaps even get me to buy into very advanced alien civilizations having the ability to travel through space at a significant speed that travel to another star system is possible given a decade or two.
I am however incredibly, unbelievably skeptical that aliens have ever visited Earth, as cool as I think it would be if there were even a kernal of truth to it I just can't see it. Even if I think of a hypothetical civilization, millions of years old, with technology that is so far beyond our understanding of science and the universe that it'd be like giving a caveman a jet fighter I still can't see it.
Don't get me wrong though it's a little fun to get lost in the drama of it all for a few days.
I reckon any genuine unexplainable UAP's are black projects testing secret military aircraft, it explains the tendancy for sightings to cluster around the US, Canada, China, Russia, and some countries in Europe.
Obviously if any of this turns out to be true then I'll happily change my tune but until I see irrefutable proof, or a world leader gets on stage and genuinely announces that we are not alone I'll remain skeptical.
I would be very surprised if actual biological beings had visited us, but something like Von Neumann probes seems a bit more plausible.
Upon reading this I sure hope it wasn't a Berserker probe....
Screw it, here's my take: I've suspected since day one that Grusch was chosen as a "spokesperson" to help bring the issue to light so others can step forward, especially since he's openly admitted to only having heard everything second-hand. His reputation gives him more credibility than most people who've made this claim among those who were involved in the initial interview, and made it more likely for him to get to Congress.
That said, I also don't know if he and the others actually believe in aliens, or if they're using it as a smokescreen.
Another user made the point that he's mentioned a potential secret office or department without any government oversight (from Congress, the president, and even the DoD) supposedly dedicated to UAPs. That may be the real purpose of the hearing: to have an excuse for Congress to get access to the documents from that office, so they can figure out what it does.
I'm personally starting to lean towards that direction myself over "aliens are real", since all of these automatic dismissals show why that's actually a surprisingly good cover for a top-secret office/department. There are always going to be rumors of such a department existing, so of course it would get dismissed by anyone who hears it.
Whatever the case, I do think it's reasonable to expect that Grusch wouldn't reveal any actual evidence he may have in the public hearing. Not revealing potentially top secret information just seems like common sense, and he doesn't have the authority to declare what is and isn't classified. It's better to reveal it in private so Congress and other officials can make the call on what parts should be classified. And that does seem to be the ultimate goal of this hearing: to provide an opening to get this information, whatever it is, to Congress after it was previously concealed from a majority of the government.
So to sum up: no clue if aliens are real or if it's a cover for something else. I do think there's some actual reason they're having this hearing though. If it IS about secret alien research, then neat! If not, just hope it's not something sinister and it turns out to be fairly boring/mundane.
I think that without a doubt, there has to be aliens outside of our solar system, given just how mind-bogglingly large the Universe appears to be, for life to have just been this one weird fluke on this one planet in a very unassuming corner of an unremarkable galaxy, while Life itself seems to show up almost everywhere we look on the planet. So Life is out there, but whether it can travel the distance between stars in a journey that would likely take hundreds/thousands of years is a different question entirely, and I doubt something they'd undertake lightly. They'd have to have access to some sort of cryo-sleep technology or have generation ships to even think of sending their own people. If we were to even be seeing alien technology in our star system though, chances are we wouldn't even be dealing with the aliens themselves, but some sort of drones just sent out for reconnaissance, probe droids. Only after some hundreds of years and with a specific purpose in mind, would the aliens probably even come here after that. So unless first contact was made centuries ago, if we've only just now seen aliens, we'd just be seeing a low-level representation of them, what their technology looked like hundreds of years ago when they sent the probes out.
I agree with your points, but would like to point out there is some anthropological bias in your thought process. We should not assume that alien life has the same limitations and requirements that humans do. Our biology evolved to thrive in the conditions of earth, but a species that evolved under different conditions may live for millennia or may not require sleep. There are species on earth that are functionally immortal, and other species that live for centuries. It’s entirely possible that an alien species with interstellar travel could have no issues sending a small or 1-man crew to explore the universe for thousands of years before returning home. If we’re to the point of speculating about alien life, there’s no reason to assume their existence resembles ours in any way.
Also to piggyback off of this an extremely advanced civilization may have ways of space travel we can't even begin to conceive of yet. Who knows honestly? We certainly don't fully. But we already have concepts and theories of wormholes for example. They may use those mundanely like we use cars and subways etc hypothetically.
And I saying I believe this is what is happening? No, but is it impossible? There's no way to be sure of anything yet.
But it does beg the question that if this is the case why would they bother observing or visiting us? Is life potentially extremely rare in the universe and that makes us interesting? Or is it more common than we can currently conceive of and this is like us going to a remote region just to see what flora and fauna is there for documenting purposes? That's still making human based assumptions like you've pointed out of course.
All I can say is given we can only understand and observe so much of the universe and it's workings it doesn't make sense to discount the possibility (not saying you are, just those that are) at the very least. So I remain in the middle until more facts and evidence are presented.
Betteridge's law of headlines is an adage that states: "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no."
I think about this law a lot (although I have to google it every time to remember the name)
This was my immediate thought as well, as it is every time I see a question mark headline. Glad you googled it for me, I also can never remember the name. It's crazy how often it's proven to be an accurate, nice law.
Haha that's nicely put; I always checked the all-caps video titles on YouTube for a question mark.
If an alien visits a planet and no one's ever greeted them, do they even exist?
Yes, but they avoid the US specifically. From Australia to China to the Taliban to Bob from work to the Dolphin Dominion, every other power is visited on the regular and covers it all up. The US makes shit up to not feel singled out.
Underneath the snark (which someone flagged as noise) is an interesting question.
Why do all these conspiracy theories seem to come from America?
It's ethnocentric to claim only America gets alien tech.
It's absurd to say other countries are better at covering this up than America.
Simplest explanation is Americans just love a good conspiracy theory.
There are definitely other countries who love their little green men stories, Argentina is a famous example. But I also agree that there is something specifically American in these stories. A huge chunk of American culture is rooted in the post WW2 environment. UFOs are basically their folklore.