Nominations for both the Golden Globes and the Critic’s Choice have been released.

Also, today, the shortlist in many categories has also been released.

Here’s where I think the race is going and, unlike my other lists, I have an explainer for all the predictions.

Picture

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. The Fabelmans
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Avatar: The Way of Water
6. Tár
7. Elvis
8. Babylon
9. Women Talking
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Alt: Triangle of Sadness

The top 9 are all pretty clearly happening. Even with mixed-to-negative reviews Babylon is still going to get a lot of below-the-line nominations and one or two acting nominations which would be more than enough to get a Picture nomination. In a similar way to Vice or Don’t Look Up, Babylon is just too big to fail.

Really, the only thing that’s left up to debate is the 10th nominee. There are three contenders for that spot: Glass Onion, Triangle of Sadness, and RRR. I just don’t see a big enough push from critics for RRR to happen, nor do I see much international appeal/acclaim for that film to happen. Triangle of Sadness has a lot of European support (as it won the Palme and the Euro Oscars). However, Glass Onion is my pick. It made a killing in its limited release. It’s going to be extremely popular when it hits Netlfix in a few days, and unlike the first Knives Out, it’s likely to get an acting nomination.

Director:

1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
2. Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Todd Field - Tár

Alt: Joseph Kosinski - Top Gun: Maverick

These seem like an easy five. Chazelle was supposed to be a contender but after he missed at the Globes (who were supposed to love the film) he’s not happening. McDonagh was snubbed in this category five years ago for Three Billboards. But, frankly, Banshees is a stronger contender than that film was. He has a lot of high brow support this time around, which he didn’t last time, which led to Paul Thomas Anderson getting nominated in Phantom Thread. Kosinski I think is getting a DGA nomination, but the director’s branch is known for their high brow taste and Cameron already has the action-adventure movie. Not to mention the directing duo of Daniels having an action movie as well.

Original Screenplay

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Tár
4. The Fabelmans
5. Triangle of Sadness

Babylon missed Screenplay at both the Globes and Critic’s Choice. While it’s probably getting a nomination at WGA, it’s dead in this category. There’s really only one other choice here and that’s Triangle of Sadness. It has the support to get it there.

I currently think Banshees is winning as, again, it’s a stronger movie than Three Billboards. EEAAO can still win as Get Out beat McDonagh last time. But I just don’t see it happen. Get Out won more screenplay awards with critics than EEAAO.

Adapted Screenplay

1. Women Talking
2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
3. Living
4. The Whale
5. Bones and All

The top 3 are locked. The Whale would miss in a stronger year but there isn’t a lot of choice in this category. Bones and All I think makes sense as a passion pick. It won two awards at Venice. I had Pinocchio in this category a little while ago but that’s also dead here. Another possibility is She Said, but no one actually cares about that movie and it’s not the type of thing that gets in as a sole Screenplay nominee. Those usually go to offbeat things like The Lobster.

Lead Actor

1. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Austin Butler - Elvis
3. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
4. Bill Nighy - Living
5. Tom Cruise - Top Gun: Maverick

The top 4 are locked. The fifth nominee here is a tough one. Again, not a lot of choice. Hugh Jackman is in a movie no one cares about. Babylon is probably not gonna be strong enough to get its lead into this category. Leaving us with Tom Cruise.

Lead Actress

1. Cate Blanchett - Tár
2. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Margot Robbie - Babylon
4. Danielle Deadwyler - Till
5. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans

I Wanna Dance With Somebody is dead. It has worse reviews than Bohemian Rhapsody, it’s not going to make as much money as BoRap, and Ackie did not get nominations at the Globes or Critic’s Choice.

Supporting Actor

1. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Brad Pitt - Babylon
4. Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans

Keoghan has been getting tons of acclaim so him getting in alongside Gleeson for Banshees seems like it’s happening. The only one here I’m not too sure about is Dano who missed out on a nomination at the Globes. I’m not sure who would replace him as of right now though and I think Fabelmans gets more than one acting nomination.

Supporting Actress

1. Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Janelle Monae - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
3. Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Jessie Buckley - Women Talking
5. Dolly De Leon - Triangle of Sadness

Outside of Condon, none of these are guaranteed. I think Monae is definitely getting in, especially if Glass Onion is a Picture nominee, but she did miss out on a Globe nomination. Women Talking is either only getting Buckley as an acting nomination or its getting no acting noms. I’m counting on De Leon getting that Euro push which gave Buckley a nomination last year for The Lost Daughter.

Cinematography

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Tár

These seem like an easy top 5. Maybe Empire of Light gets in because of Roger Deakins’s name. But no one cares about it.

Film Editing

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Elvis
5. The Banshees of Inisherin

Fabelmans is probably missing here, so is Babylon. Film Editing is usually reserved either for Top 5 movies or for extremely flashy editing. Fabelmans isn’t flashy and Babylon isn’t going to be strong enough. Top Gun: Maverick is an easy winner in this category alongside other bombastic winners like Ford vs Ferrari and The Bourne Ultimatum.

Sound

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Elvis
4. Babylon
5. Everything Everywhere All At Once

The top 4 seem like they’re happening. The fifth one is more up in the air. The sound branch usually likes nominating Best Picture nominees though and Fabelmans missed the shortlist which is why I have EEAAO in there. Top Gun is an easy winner here again. Plus, there’s a correlation between Film Editing and Sound.

Original Score

1. The Fabelmans
2. Babylon
3. The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Women Talking
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Avatar got snubbed at the Globes, which means it’s probably not happening. It’s also not that flashy of a score and contains kind of milquetoast action movie music. I currently have Fabelmans winning as John Williams is retiring after he finishes up Indiana Jones. However, I don’t think there’s a clear winner here right now.

Original Song

1. "Hold My Hand" from Top Gun: Maverick
2. “Ciao Papa” from Pinocchio
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
4. “Applause” from Tell It Like A Woman
5. “Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water

Naatu Naatu has a lot of passion. Applause is from Diane Warren who gets nominated for her boring documentary songs every year.

Production Design

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. Elvis
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Costume Design

1. Babylon
2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
3. Elvis
4. The Fabelmans
5. Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris

Make-up and Hairstyling

1. The Whale
2. Elvis
3. Babylon
4. The Batman
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

VFX

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
4. The Batman
5. Nope

I actually had EEAAO here but it missed the VFX shortlist.

Animated Feature

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes
3. Turning Red
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
5. Inu-Oh

Pinocchio is the front-runner here, Marcel has a lot of passion amongst hipster types and has been getting in everywhere. Disney’s only real contender in this category is Turning Red. Puss in Boots has been getting in everywhere. Inu-Oh got a Globe nomination but I don’t really know what else would get in there. Kind of a weak year for animated films.

International Film

1. Decision to Leave
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Close
4. Saint Omer
5. The Quiet Girl

Documentary

1. All The Beauty and the Bloodshed
2. Moonage Daydream
3. Fire of Love
4. All That Breathes
5. Descendant

Okay that’s all I got for you. I cut out some of the commentary because I feel like I went on too long in the beginning.

Important: This will be a noisy thread. If you do not wish to see it in your feed, please use the "Ignore" feature to hide it!

Tip: If the large number of comments are cluttering up the thread and you just want to see the main giveaway posts, click "Collapse Replies" at the top of the comments.

@teaearlgraycold's recent INCREDIBLE giveaway idea reminded me that we were due for our usual holiday giveaway thread. Y'all presumably know the drill, but if you don't, check out some of our old threads!

Gifters

Post your available games, the platform and method of delivery, rules for your giveaways (e.g. first-come first-serve, random draw, etc.), and any additional info or requirements. Feel free to get creative!

Giftees

Request giveaways according to the gifter's guidelines!

Rules

Anyone can choose to be a gifter, giftee, or both! Giveaway rules are set by individual gifters, but there are handful of guidelines everyone should follow:

1. No grey market keys! Only giveaway games from reputable sources. If you're not sure what this means, please ask.
2. Requests for games should be done in the thread, but if the gift is a key, those should be delivered by PMs only. Please don't post keys publicly, even obfuscated ones.

So I disassembled my old PC, and there are a few spare parts that I believe are still good. According to the technician, the motherboard is fried. I have no way to test this, so I'm believing him for now.

I wish to use those parts on a new desktop PC, but I have no idea where to begin... what do I need to buy new? Of what kind/brand/specification/pricepoint?

So here's what I got:

• AMD Ryzen 5 2400G processor
  • with the AMD cooler that came with it
• 1TB 7200RPM non-SSD hard-drive
• 1 Ballistix by Micron 16GB 2400MHz RAM stick
• 1 240GB WD Green Sata SSD M.2 2280

I may have access to another 8GB RAM stick of unknown origins from my partner's old PC, but she's a bit protective of those things so I'll way for her to be home to open it in front of her :P

There's a power source attached to the case, which reads ATX-600W. Image1, image2.

The computer case itself is a little beat up but I don't care about looks at all. Its external dimensions are 34.5cm by 35cm, with a width of 16cm. Here's how it looks (Xbox controller for scale).

I wanna build a new machine with the goals of:

• video editing
  • so Adobe Premiere, Adobe After Effects, some audio work, and maybe streaming.
• gaming
  • nothing super high-end, I'll probably get one or two 1080p 24" monitors because 4K reduces my options quite a bit. But here are some of the games I'm looking forward to playing (all MMOs): World of Warcraft Classic and Retail, FFXIV, Guild Wars 2, and the upcoming Ashes of Creation (which I believe is an Unreal 5 game).

My budget (including the monitor or monitors) is roughly 1400 US dollars. I understand that is not a lot of money for the majority of Tildes users, but that is just my reality. My 1400 US dollars PC is very much a luxury around here.

If needed for budget purposes I can get just one monitor now, and another down the road.

So, what's the best I can do?

Thanks! ;)

Which buzzwords, used in marketing to techies, are the biggest turnoffs?

I'll start:

• Accelerate innovation
• Single pane of glass
• End-to-end
• Best practices
• The developer experience

There are valid reasons to use all of these, but 90% of the time... nope.

If I get enough response to this, I'm thinking of turning into a listicle of "N Buzzwords That Developers Hate."

Pop-Up Event: Feelin’ ‘22

Task: Listen to an album featured in any end-of-year music list for 2022 and let us know what you thought of it. Also, tell us what list you got it from, as well as why you chose it.

Time Period: Saturday, November 10 through Sunday, November 18

Help from Our Staff: Need a place to start? Try one of these:

• AOTY’s list of lists for the best albums of 2022
• RateYourMusic’s customizable chart builder
• Tildes’ very own Year in Review for music

Name a movie or story that should get the Muppet treatment, like the Muppet Christmas Carol.

Name the token human headlining character and justify your Muppet picks. Bonus points for some dialog or song lyrics.

Some very mild spoilers for The Mandalorian

I have not been really following Star Wars since Disney took over, I think I saw one or two of the new sequels (they were forgetable) and I saw Rouge One (It's great, would even call it the most Star Wars Star Wars movie)

I had some time last weeks and I saw Andor and I was just stunned. Good to great actors, great worldbuilding, a bit on the nose but still engaging social critic and themes, an interesting and intense story based in gritty realism while still being very Star Wars. I think everybody who likes science fiction and/or spythrillers should watch it.
So I was like: oooooh so they finally found a way to do new and interesting stuff with the Galaxy far far away. Everybody says nice things about the Mandalorian, let's check that one out. It got 92% on RT so I'm shure it's nice....

I seem to hate it and it makes me angry that it turned out the way it did, because i still like a lot about it. It makes me sad that they botched it so badly.
Maybe having a main character whitout a face is not helping? so i need a robot to tell me what Mando is feeling? Pedro Pascal is actually doing an incredible job working with body language and voice, but I don't think it's enough to actually be able to salvage this dumpsterfire of an realisation. Or maybe they should have kept with Mando being an unrelatable asshole, and not make him a disney daddy?
And then they still show his face.... in the most anticlimactic way ever... why? just why do that? It makes me angry just thinking about it, how can you fuck that up so badly, that could be a series defining payoff, but no! They just waste it in the most boring and unconcequencial way ever.

Then there is the Rule of Cool or Why is Everybody a Badass?. Mando is cool, i get it. He has an amazing Look (obviously the helmet is crazy good). He has very interesting and powerful weapons. But then I he still gets mostly his as kicked by nearly everything and everybody all the time?? I mean why do you tell me with every character and all his design that he is a force of nature and than he gets his ass kicked by a fucking dinohead on two legs that looks like a joke and is a joke (I dont actually mind that, i like the design and the joke) I just makes no sense to me.
Nearly everybody else looks cool and is presented as a badass as well, there is just to much of it. there are no weak people, there are no hurt people, there are just badasses and cannonfodder.

Then there is the storytelling... It ranges from quite ok to fucking horrible. I mean, who thought it is a good Idea to NOT cut the motherfucking prisonship episode? It's some of the worst TV i saw in a long while. It does nothing for the overall story. it does nothing for the characters. It does nothing for the viewer. It does nothing for nobody. Its just full of bad acting, bad direction, bad and lazy set design, bad editing, bad jokes, and the worst storytelling. why did they leave that piece of shit in there? the whole series is worse for it. It makes me angry.

So I finally checked the wikipedia page and I understood. Jon Favreau.... Jon Favreau!!! I mean not all of his work is that bad. I liked Iron man and Chef, and I love Cowboys and Aliens (really! it's so bad it's good, but you can not expect differently with that name) I hated his Lion King.

I don't now where I'm going with this. I think I just needed to share my feelings about it. It's just so full of potential, there is so much they could have done with it. they could have explored so many themes and share so much lore... but they just fucked it up and everybody seems to like it, i dont get it.

/rant

so are the other Star Wars shows worth a watch?

Hi, lately I've been thinking a bunch about Phantom Crash, which I played on an XBox. It was a mecha battle arena game. It had two main modes (three if you count skipping through interminable conversations with NPCs). First, you'd take your mech into an arena and blow people up. Then you'd go to your garage, spending your winnings on upgrading your mech.

The degree of customization you could achieve was striking. There were big options like wheels / legs / hover platform, and a variety of energy / mass / missile weapons. You could get different aim assist chips that had meaningfully different characteristics. You could tune almost any piece of equipment to be lighter or heavier, and a heavier gun really felt more powerful in the arena.

TBH the actual combat was only alright, but we loved the game anyway.

Are there any other games out there that have this kind of feedback loop? Playable today is best, but I'd also go down an internet archaeology hole.

Edit: Some interactions with the bot I posted in the comments, if you are curious about potential prompts: https://tildes.net/~tech/13lj/lets_talk_about_chatgpt#comment-7lw6

I have been obsessively reading about ChatGPT since it came out. I'm going to skip introducing it for those who don't know yet (please go ahead and click the link, and do some googling), because I just.. need to vent.

I have experimented with it. A bunch. I'm also pretty familiar with GPT's capabilities from before. And ChatGPT still took me by surprise.

Still, as of four days ago, I did not believe we were there yet. Hell, I didn't believe we would get there within my lifetime, and now, it's there.

"But Adys, you don't understand the limitations!"

Yeah, no, see, I understand the limitations. I understand this is the version that is still in its infancy, is crippled by stupid decisions from OpenAI, is not running on GPT-4 yet, and doesn't yet have things such as some layer of eg. checking correctness.

But I also understand the potential. HN has been full of people crying out how we're not at AGI yet but DOES THIS MATTER? Planes are still decades away from displacing most bird jobs.

I think anyone who isn't currently in utter shock at how good ChatGPT is, is either:

• Somehow woefully misinformed (eg. the less tech literates I've shown it to have asked me "Can't Siri do this?")
• In complete denial about the potential of the technology
• Utterly thick

I want to cry on every corner of every street that we are at the edge of the AI revolution.

The "problems" that are left are not necessarily easy, but they're also not necessarily hard. For example, GPT's tendency to bullshit is problematic but there are ways to verify output, and those ways can themselves be automated and feed back into GPT.

I have never, in my life, been so taken aback by a technological advancement. I'm flashing back to the scene in Westworld: "It's not possible. Technology isn't there yet."

Like, no, this isn't skynet, person of interest, westworld, or anything like this. But it is something. Something very different, very unique. The world is about to completely change. And I want to stress this: EVERYONE I've seen argue against this has been in very obvious denial. I'll be happy to hear you out if you disagree, but if your only argument is that this isn't exactly the AI you expected / it can't solve the exact problem you throw at it, I'll refer you to better birds and faster horses.

There's a type of watch that's very popular. It has a clean, clear, design. It's definitely a classic. I have mixed feelings about it because of the origins of the design.

The watch is big. I has a black dial with white numbers and index marks. At the 12 o'clock position there's a triangle. There's plenty of lume on the dial. They usually have a leather strap, and that strap often has two rivets.

Sometimes the dial has two index rings, the inner ring has hour markings and the outer ring has minute markings.

IWC makes the most well known example: https://www.iwc.com/en/watch-collections/pilot-watches/iw329301-big-pilots-watch-43.html

There are lots of homages:

https://whamond.com/products/laco-watch-pilot-original-heidelberg-39-862094?variant=20123598716982&currency=GBP&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=google+shopping&gclid=CjwKCAiAp7GcBhA0EiwA9U0mtgW5zl3U-UDVpOj2xzQugfY8gjG7C01nWLIjDNRRPNV9C5Ybim0tFRoCrtUQAvD_BwE

https://www.jurawatches.co.uk/products/laco-watch-pilot-basic-aachen-42-861690-2?utm_medium=PPC&utm_campaign=Shopping&variant=10940401025060&sfdr_ptcid=3694_524_461850736&sfdr_hash=d57409f84f1ff15872832c2e5817a3ae&gclid=CjwKCAiAp7GcBhA0EiwA9U0mtpzVPcdQyfLtQzP4-E5jrfi5c7FKYtNrpJD8SnV0DqRqgYthNF70PBoCXgcQAvD_BwE

https://shop.diywatch.club/products/new-arrival-diy-watchmaking-kit-f01-lite-vintage-pilot-watch-with-date?variant=42068938358997

https://www.watchshop.com/watches/mens-sekonda-aviator-watch-3347.pdp

https://mwcwatches.com/products/vintage-ww2-style-german-pilots-watch-1

This style of watch is called "B Uhr", or "B Uhren"and you get many results if you use that search term. It's German, and it's an abbreviation for "Beobachtungs-uhren" which means "observation watch".

My problem with the watch is that is that it was specifically designed for the Luftwaffe in WW2.

https://monochrome-watches.com/the-history-of-the-pilot-watch-part-five-b-uhr/

After the war other airforces, including the British RAF, started using very similar watches.

Most watch sellers do not celebrate the Nazi history of the watch. But some do: https://b-uhr.com/en/collection/b-uhr-luftwaffe-flieger-chronograph.html

So, I don't know how I feel about this watch. Can its clean design be appreciated when I know of its Nazi link? Can I separate the creator from the product?

Welcome to a special giveaway!

Instead of a specific game or a lottery system you will need to guess the pre-determined amount ($X) I've allocated for the giveaway. You can submit a guess by listing any number of games and their prices (include a total in USD) in a top-level comment in this post by the time this post is 48 hours old. The total cost of all games can not exceed $X! The commenter who comes the closest without going over $X will win each game in their list. If there is a tie the first commenter will win.

Good luck!

For verification purposes, here is the salted hash of $X: 6879e144663fc05aacacbd7daf8614aa

Extra info:

1. Exclude taxes
2. If your local currency is not USD please convert the total to USD after getting the total for your local currency
3. Please include sale price discounts

Example (from @psi):

@hkc COME ON UP!!!

Salted $X string: The correct price is: $53.25

So, next year, I will spend two 3-month periods at a place that is 1400km away from my home. Because of my somewhat large, superfast dog, with a tendency to run away and topple people, I will have to go by car, dog in hand (don't worry, I won't be driving :P). Each roundtrip amounts to 42 hours on the road.

At the same time, I'm budgeting for a new desktop workstation for gaming and video editing (so both fun and work). I could get a much inferior gamer laptop with the money, but I wanna have a good machine for things like Adobe After Effects, and the inferior part bothers me quite a bit.

Hence the question: how can I safely transport a desktop PC plus monitor for an 84-hour car trip? Should I take it "whole"? Disassembled? Or not at all? I really don't wanna screw up my brand-new PC!

Spotify Wrapped and Apple Replay are out. Soon we'll start being deluged with annual Best Of lists like this one. It's that time of year!

What were your favorite listens this year? What new finds did you unexpectedly love? How did your tastes change/evolve (if at all)? What do you consider the best albums of the year? What did the critics get wrong?

Discuss any and all end-of-year music stuff here. Share your Wrapped/Replay/Last.fm/Listenbrainz summary if you'd like. Hype up that hidden gem you think deserves more attention. Anything goes!

I'm spending 5 days in NYC starting next week. While I've traveled plenty, it's almost always been alone, frequently short term (2-3 days including flights in and out), and work related so I had people to either ask for suggestions or just went out on my own. If the trip didn't fit into the above categories it was typically to somewhere I'm relatively familiar with or had a lot of lead time to prepare my trip.

That is not the case right now. I've never had any interest in NYC so I don't have a list of places I'd like to experience in my head, I don't have a ton of time to research a plan and filter out all the "top 10 things to do in NYC" websites, I'll be with my wife so going off wandering on my own isn't an option, and this will be the first trip where I don't have a rental car to just go get lost in and see where my randomness takes me. I'm also not the tourist type so there's no interest in "the tree" or Times Square, etc.

So I beseech you fellow Tilderinos, as someone that doesn't care about being a tourist, doesn't have a social media presence to feed I'm-here-and-you're-not selfies to, and needs actual destinations to go to due to a lack of independent mobility, what should someone with pretty much 72 hours of completely free time in NYC actually do?

I started studying again this semester, and have to read a lot of stuff because of it.
As we get nearly all our Books as PDF and reading on my notebook or my phone gets tiering quite fast. So I'm thinking about getting myself an e-reader to make things go easier.

So i tried to find some ressources to learn about e-readers, but the internet (or search engines) these days seem to suck.
So maybe my lovely tildes can help.

must haves:
can read PDF
needs to make reading this "shitty" two colums pages my PDF have good and easy

nice to haves:
FOSS
Backlight

can somebody help me out? or do you know about a resource where I can learn about the pro and cons of the different e-readers, I'm starting with close to 0 knowlege as I never thoght I will need one, I generally prefere to read proper books.

I would like to find a good Statistics course to do for myself, and also to recommend to others, down the road ... one that specifically focuses on risk, and the discrepancy between actual statistical probability vs humans' intuitive sense of risk.

I recall a quote, which The Interwebs informs me right now, came from Albert A. Bartlett ... "The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race Is Man’s Inability To Understand the Exponential Function".

Alternately, Mark Twain popularized (but did not originate) the saying "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics".

That's the kind of course I'm looking for, that focuses on questions like how much should we actually worry about supervolcanoes, asteroid strikes, Covid 2.0, WWIII, Trump getting re-elected, etc.

There are two parts to this. One, people often (naturally, human nature, how our brains are wired to handle Risk) obsess about a short list of risks in life that are overblown, or appear to be more of a concern than they actually are.

The other part is, some things have a very small risk of actually happening, but when considered in conjunction with the potential consequences (asteroid strikes, WWIII, global pandemic), are still worthy of aggressive efforts to prevent ... and people often focus on the first element (statistically unlikely) and dismiss or overlook the second piece (devastating consequences).

Anyway, stuff like that ... ideally an actual, hands-on MOOC-type Statistics course, but even a good youtube video or blog article would suffice.

As usual, thanks in advance.

I wrote the following as a Twitter thread first but I think this idea could work for Reddit/Tildes/Mastadon and would love to know what you folks think of it.

Here is how I would monetize a social network that could work for Twitter.

First of all, don’t charge your most valuable users - the power users that create the content for you. Instead focus on the users that get more value from your system - the consumers of the content.

The idea is simple - introduce a small time delay before content gets seen from the time it is published. For example, on Twitter it could be 1 minute. On Reddit it could be 10 minutes.

Paid subscribers would have no delay. Importantly - lift the delay for the users that generate a lot of views.

You can do revenue share with your content creators in proportion to how much time paid subscribers spent on their content.

And you can also identify your most valuable audience - the paid subscribers. This will help prioritize content moderation decisions, identify abuse, and prioritize appeals.

The delay would allow you to prioritize which content needs to be indexed instantly (ie from creators that paid subscribers are following) and which you can process on a best effort basis - saving on production costs.

You can gift subscriptions to your friends and family.

I don’t know how many of you watch “nerd” movie channels, or ever did. But for those of you who don’t know what I’m talking about. I’m talking about stuff like ScreenJunkies, Collider and all their auxiliaries like SchmoesKnow.

These are the people that were made fun of by RedLetterMedia in their NerdCrew videos which funnily enough they don’t do anymore.

They were pillars of the YouTube film community. In fact, back when I was first getting into movies in the early 2010s, they were the majority of content. Until the video essay boom came into fruition circa 2015, and of which is now the primary style of video.

They would make dozens upon dozens of videos and podcasts talking about the latest trailer for a Marvel movie. They would speculate about what would happen in the next Star Wars movie. They would react to trailers and over-exaggerate. They would fully embrace all things that Funko Pop nerds embraced.

2019 was the height of all of this. The MCU’s Infinity Saga came to a close with Endgame and Spider-Man: Far From Home, and the Star Wars Sequel trilogy wrapped up later in the year with The Rise of Skywalker. The hype for these movies were unbelievable, even if one of them disappointed and left everyone with a bitter after-taste.

Then the pandemic happened and all nerd movie news stopped. There was nothing to react to, there was nothing to hype. Wonder Woman 1984 came out, but nobody liked it.

The following year was a little bit better thanks to the hype machine surrounding Spider-Man: No Way Home. But still, the views that these nerd channels were getting dropped significantly. Check out the difference between the reviews on Fandom Entertainment's channel for Endgame and Spider-Man: No Way Home. The drop in audience is remarkable. And that’s for the big reviews. The day-to-day content that these channels posted are down significantly, and in the case of Fandom Entertainment (of ScreenJunkies), they have stopped producing daily videos. It’s a YouTube channel on life support.

Collider is an empty shell of itself, they canceled all of their nerd panels and only do generic press junket videos.

It’s simple really. These things ended. Interest in the MCU has dipped since Endgame (with the exception of Spider-Man). Star Wars has stopped making movies, and the TV shows have been of mixed quality. People moved on. These channels aren't needed anymore.

The era of the 2010s movie nerd YouTube channel is over. The only ones staying alive are ones that relied more on personality rather than farming content. I’m talking about JeremyJahns, Chris Stuckmann, and Mr. Sunday Movies. Their audience stayed around because their audience liked their personality.

As with many Twitter users, I'm finally at the point where I want to leave and join Mastodon. About a year ago I set up an account after seeing some people on Tildes talk about it, but I found it confusing and ultimately closed the account. I want to give it another go, but I'm a bit confused about all the different instance options, what the practical differences are, and more. Are there any comprehensive getting started guides? Does it matter which instance I join? How did you choose for yourself?

I was playing Mario Kart 8 Deluxe with my kid the other day and it was a blast. Nintendo have really nailed this game, especially in the balance of accessible enough for beginners to have fun but hard enough for people to have a challenge too.

My other favourite game (although I haven't played it for a while) is Sega Rally Championship on Sega Saturn. This game has 4 tracks (one of which needs to be unlocked) and 3 cars (and again, one of these needs to be unlocked). The tiny number of cars and tracks means that you get to do the same corners over and over. This might sound tedious, but when you hit the corner just right you know it. You can get a sense of mastery over it. I've spent many hours playing games in the Gran Turismo series, and I really enjoy them, but fair play some of the tracks and cars are just shovelled into the game and you don't spend much time with them

In the first Gran Turismo the licensing tests were properly hard. They weren't messing around. Getting bronze requires people to read the manual and understand what the point of the test is. Getting all gold is an actual challenge for experienced players. I feel like the tests (at least, the bronze levels) got easier in later games. The UK soundtrack was small but pretty good.

My final mention is the Burnout series. I loved the crash junctions. I'm not sure the open world of Paradise was fun - it meant spending a lot of time driving across a map to get to the start line of various events. I feel the same way about many games - I'd rather just have a menu of levels and what I need to do to complete them (GoldenEye, SNES PilotWings, BlastCorps are all good examples) than have this stuff obscured by the open world. Burnout on the Nintendo DS was a genuinely awful game. I think Burnout Dominator was my favourite in the series.

So, what do driving games get right? What do they miss? What interesting game mechanics do you enjoy?

Timasomo 2022 is now officially complete! Participants will be posting their creations and efforts in this thread as a showcase! Comments and feedback from the wider community are both welcome and encouraged! Let these creators know what an awesome job they've done!

Creators: In posting your showcase:

• Give your project a title, and use the # markdown to make it stand out in the showcase thread!
• Link to your project in whatever way works best for your project.
• Give a "creator statement" that contextualizes what your project is.
• Add anything else you consider relevant! The showcase is yours!
• If you need examples, take a look at last year’s showcase.

Community:

• Treat this thread like a walk through an art gallery or a museum where you get to see different works on display.
• Comments do NOT have to be in-depth -- it is okay to just affirm that you like/love/appreciate something! (In other threads these might be considered noise, but here they are directly validating the sustained creative efforts of another community member!).
• Make sure any feedback you give is constructive.

I love languages, and one of the great things about learning other languages - or even just learning about them - is how it expands your mental horizons. One of the first things you notice is that many words don't correspond 1:1 with each other in distinct languages. Sometimes, what you think of as one concept gets partitioned out into one, two, three, four distinct word forms in another language. Other times it's the opposite, and distinctions are lost. What are some interesting vocabulary/lexicon differences between English and another language you're familiar with? I'll give some examples:

• Russian motion verbs are a lot more complex than English ones. There are two distinct words for "to walk", idti and xodit'. The former is used for walking in one direction, the latter for walking in multiple or unspecified directions. The former is also used for single actions while the latter is for habitual action. Russian makes this distinction in every common verb for motion. It also makes a distinction between going by foot and going by a means of transportation, like a car, a bicycle, or a train. In English, you could say "I walked to the store" to specify you went by foot, but you could also say "I went to the store" and the mode of transportation is unspecified. In Russian, there is no single verb "go" that doesn't imply either by foot or not by foot. You have to use either idti/xodit' "go by foot" or exat'/ezdit' "go by some means of transportation". (As I understand it, I'm not a native speaker of Russian, just studied it a bit.)
• Terms of kinship are a big topic. Wikipedia lists six distinct basic forms of kinship terminology, and that's just scratching the surface. Some languages distinguish between the maternal and paternal side of the family, others do not. Some do not distinguish cousins and siblings. Some make distinctions between elder and younger family members with distinct words. Unfortunately, I don't speak any languages that are markedly different from English. But even in my native Norwegian, which is closely related to English, there are some differences, such as:
  • First cousin is a distinct stem (søskenbarn, lit. sibling-child, i.e. the child of your parent's sibling) from second cousins (tremenning). There are also distinct words for cousin (no gender specified) and female (kusine) and male (fetter) cousins.
  • Maternal and paternal grandparents are distinguished.
  • I struggled to understand what the hell a "cousin once removed" was until I realized it's a kind of family relation that has no name in Norwegian.
• Or it could just be a single word. For instance, English has one word, "suspicious", meaning both an attitude towards another person's behavior (suspicious of) and that behavior itself (behaving in a suspicious manner). In Norwegian, those are two distinct words: mistenksom (suspicious of) and mistenkelig (behaving suspiciously).

I've only studied a couple of languages seriously. But I also have an interested in constructed languages as a hobby, so I've dabbled in a lot of languages, looking to pilfer ideas for my own projects. I really think it's expanded my view of the world, by showing that categories that seem obvious, really aren't. That's a lesson I've tried to transfer to other areas of life.

I also think it leads into philosophy, because it's really a question of how to divide up semantic space. If we imagine the theoretical space of all things that could ever be spoken about, how do we divide up that space into distinct words? Which categories do we choose to represent as meaningful, and which ones are relegated to being a sub-aspect of another category, only distinguishable by context? I imagine that in a culture with large family units, it makes more sense not to distinguish "brother" from "male cousin", than a culture in which nuclear families are the norm, for instance.

Do you have any cool examples of how vocabulary works differently in other languages, whether it be a single word or a large class of words? Or examples of times when encountering a different way of describing the world by learning another language led to insights in other areas of life?

This is for worldbuilding purposes. I'm not exactly a "science dude", so I'd like to get a better idea of our solar system and beyond, preferably with links to layman-friendly explanations on things like:

• distances and travel time not only having Earth as a starting point, but from any given point to another
  • if at all possible, including hypothetical alien and/or future technologies
• Earth-like planets
• locations that might be able to sustain life, and which kind of life it could sustain
• locations that, while unsuitable to carbon-based life, might receive enough energy to sustain artificial intelligence

I remember there's some kind of simulator or engine, that can run on a computer... anyone remembers the name? And would it run on an aging laptop with an i5 processor and Intel HD4400 integrated graphics?

Thanks!

EDIT: I guess I'll make this question a bit more approachable, so... what are some YouTube channels that can teach me more the basics of our solar system, nearby systems, the Milky Way, and how all of those are linked together?.

Upcoming Dates:

Timasomo Showcase Thread -- Saturday, November 5

Technically all work should be finished before November 1st (but if you're running up on time, that's never really been a hard deadline 😉).

November 1-4 are for putting finishing touches on the project to ready it for the showcase. If you need an idea of what the Showcase thread will look like, here's last year's.

Next Saturday will be the showcase where we all get to show off what we've made!

Update us on your progress so far!

What did/didn't you get done this week?

Anything go according to plan?

Anything go off the rails?

Any successes or struggles to share?

I'm 22 years old and have recently graduated from college. I'm a little disoriented right now. I'd appreciate some help. I'm having trouble explaining my issue precisely, but it relates to these themes: SEX, LONGING, AMBIVALENCE, PURPOSE. I feel I must provide some anecdotes for my question(s) to make sense.

In the wintertime, I made a new friend. She had pitch-black hair. We had exchanged any number of glances from across the room. She caught me one morning as I left the hall and asked if I liked [REDACTED_MEDIA]. I humored her: "Sure, as much as anyone. … No, I've not seen it. … Yes, I'll check it out." The following week I reported back with my opinions, and we spoke a great deal, warming to one another as the days remained icy.

One day I offered to take her to [REDACTED_EVENT]. She didn't come, but regretted it, and gave me a phone number as reparation. She was a little embarrassed, but I found it endearing; I was quite happy to see more of her. From here the courtship was a breeze. On a Saturday we took a drive into the country and strolled along a quiet, wooded trail, a respite from our world of books and burdens. As we rested by a stream, talking about trivialities, she laid out a moment of trauma before me. She was not looking for answers to an unanswerable tragedy so much as a good listener. I obliged, and held her closely as we walked home. She appreciated the comfort.

From here the romance was a breeze. One invitation to study at hers and we were having unbelievable sex. She was very beautiful. We would spend an entire day together, ignoring our responsibilities and enjoying each other's bodies. Never in my life had I indulged in such things as she asked for. I think it actually changed some of my brain chemistry. It was exciting, it was fun, and it was very satisfying—for both of us. I also thought our conversation was authentic and emotionally fulfilling. Apparently she did not share that feeling, because she broke up with me (suddenly) a couple weeks in. Her exact reasons were a little strange, but I was not going to push it. We said our goodbyes, and I walked home in the bitter cold, alone.

I hadn't known her long enough to be debilitatingly heartbroken, but it did hurt. And maybe I'm just being naïve, but I question whether it's possible for a future relationship to beat that sex. This prompts a greater existential question: "So why bother?"

Some time ago, a dear friend invited me to her home in a city I no longer called mine. We dined and spoke of our passing lives: exciting and intimidating in their opportunity; tiring and burdensome in their demands. There were so many choices ahead; work gave enough but took too much. It was a relief to be free from the school; it was lonely. But it warmed my heart to be in her company again.

She drew me to her bed and closed the door. I sat, and we chatted. Her expectation was obvious and the reason for my passivity was not—the dance of intimacy was familiar to both of us. After a pause, she faced me and said, "We can sleep together, but I don't want you to stay the night."

Her request was reasonable, but I found it deeply jarring. Sex had not really motivated my visit, though I had entertained the possibility, and it had certainly not motivated my behavior at dinner. (I had planned already where I would be sleeping that night, and it was far away.) I had missed her a lot. More than anything I had missed her presence. Her statement revealed a terrible disparity in how we viewed our relationship. It was my fault for not stepping out after dinner, and it was particularly my fault across many months prior for setting a series of expectations that effectively downplayed my emotional feelings.

I acknowledged her and quickly changed the top of conversation, and for a moment it was as though nothing had been said. Then, with another pause, she leaned over for a kiss. My heart was not in it. All I could hear was "I don't want you..." Still, I could not refuse. I had been sliced open, but she was very pretty, and more importantly I was reluctant to disappoint the people I cared for. The sex that followed felt passionless and transactional—different from before. She seemed impatient. I was distressed. It was consensual, but it was really weird and I did not enjoy it.

I walked out of that house wishing I could cry. It was not the time. I could betray no weakness here or the city would devour me. I did cry, later. And maybe I'm just being naïve, but this incident made me question whether it's possible for a future relationship to beat the sentimental connection we had at the peak of our fling… including another go at it (that time has evidently passed). We were emotional matches/peers/equals in a way I don't know if I will ever find again. This prompts a greater existential question: "So why bother?"

We're meant to see each other again quite soon, but this time the bed will be my own, and this time she'll stay the night. I couldn't say no when she asked. It's going to be awkward. I'm unsure what I wish to do.

Not long ago, a friend asked near midnight if there was something happening between us. I froze up and sputtered something out about not expecting that question. I was genuinely unable to say anything for a few minutes. The answer that came to mind was kind of "Yes," but it was also, "I'm confused at this time and I don't know," and also, "This is going to hurt the group dynamic." I said yes but mumbled something about not getting her hopes up because I was pretty weird and also pretty uncertain about how I wanted to shape my life in the near and far future. I did not talk about the group dynamic.

I'm proud of myself for making it clear that my wants are currently shifting and that my boundaries are unclear. I would've liked to be more specific. However, I'm not proud of saying yes before I had resolved all my emotional problems, nor about glossing over all my reservations. I feel it is irresponsible; I'm setting myself (and her) up to fail. I'm uncertain how to feel about the group dynamic. In the past year I've been the recipient of a lot of romantic attention with them and I've consistently said no. It is fine right now but it might not be fine if I change course like this.

Last year I made a post on this website about three experiences I'd had and received a few comments. One of them in particular stuck with me:

I will give you one piece of advice. There's absolutely nothing wrong with anything that you told us, but since you are young and reminds a bit of myself when I was your age, I'll say this: be careful not to inadvertently hurt anyone. Be explicit instead of implicit. People often have all kinds of expectations that differ from our own, so it's a good idea to let them know where they stand.

I really did take that to heart. I don't want to hurt anyone. I am trying so hard not to ruin everything. I broke this advice soon after it was given to me and it severely damaged a friendship. It was not on purpose, but it was incredibly foolish. Since then, I've been extra careful not to lead people on and to be really clear about my needs (or at least I hope I have). But this is hard because I live a very social lifestyle and people seem to misinterpret friendliness as flirting. Or they just have opinions. I can't say this without sounding arrogant, so please forgive me, but people often comment admiringly on my appearance. It is obvious that they treat me differently because of it. It's not that weird (or that bad honestly) for an acquaintance my age to be a little bashful in front of me—but it feels different when it becomes an increasingly significant part of my reputation. I try not to touch people or to otherwise give them the wrong idea, but it seems like I am breeding longing/jealousy just by existing.

Anyway, I feel I am struggling to move this relationship forward in part because I wasn't explicitly looking for one, and have been hit hard lately by general listlessness and uncertainty, so I wasn't prepared for it. And I'm also struggling to reconcile the physical needs of a new romance with my current incredible level of apathy toward sex. "Why bother?" I've never been this indifferent toward it before, it has always been important to me. The more I think about previous relationships, the less it seems like it's worth it to pursue anything at all. I would call it freeing to not care, except that it's fundamentally concerning. It stems from bad memories and also I think some trauma I haven't really resolved, which is not the same as "letting loose and living my life." It's been physically difficult for me to even think about sex and to be honest the thought is occasionally a little revolting to me, which I have never felt before, at least not for an extended period. And I feel like I'm too irrevocably closed-off to ever sufficiently open up emotionally in a relationship to make it last long-term. But… I also know what it feels like to fall into despair, not knowing what great things lie around the corner. This makes me reluctant to cut it off or make an ultimatum or actually do anything decisive at all.

It's all just so much.

None of that is really in question form, but it sort of explains my headspace. I'm sorry that I can't explain it better, but it's very late and I have work tomorrow. I would really appreciate some insight. Thanks.

As far as I can make out, every country has public information films. They rarely pull punches, which is pretty important as their messages are usually important. I remember being terrified by Monolith as a child. I still think about It's Thirty For a Reason whenever I drive in suburban areas, and I've seen similar things from New Zealand, Canada and so on. Creative agencies love PIF gigs because you can do so much more than a normal advert/TV spot would allow. People can, and do, go all out on them. They're also ripe for parody

However, back in the seventies, that's when the UK government went a little... well.. overboard. Imagine showing Lonely Water to actual children. Or Stand Steady, or even Frisbee? I remember being shown films like these at school, from scratchy old VHS tapes on clunky old school TVs. I remember them being broadcast during children's programming time. I remember being irrationally terrified of old fridges even though I've never see a fridge with a lock in my entire life.

But sure, they're scary topics and sometimes you do need to scare people into not doing stupid stuff that might kill them. There are plenty of examples of scary short PIFs aimed at all ages from their invention right up to the present day. But then there are the longer form movies about safety for children. That's what this post is really about. Let's call these the "unholy trinity" of PIF terror:

There's the weird time-loop slaughter fest of Building Sites Bite (unfortunately the only copy I could find was a 'reacts' video but it's worth watching)

Ignoring the of-it's-time but now recognised as problematic "Cowboys and Indians" conceit, Apaches is utterly horrifying.

Then there's the dystopian awfulness of The Finishing Line

These films were rated PG (aka safe for kids). They were shown in schools. Not just high schools, but primary (elementary) schools. Although to be fair, someone did get a clue fairly quickly and The Finishing Line was banned and withdrawn in under a year because holy shit.

I'd be interested to see some of your favourite public information films, please do link them if you have any.

Hello everyone, I'm going to move to a new apartment and doing full time home office while my wife is doing part home office, so I'm looking to improve my internet connectivity. I already plan to get the 400 mbps down fiber cable plan. So, I have to be honest that routers is one of those topics that I should know more than I should but don't, so I'm not sure what should I expect and the features I want or don't need.

Some time ago, I discovered and bookmarked the amazing website smallnetbuilder which at the time I thought, I would just trust his thorough reviews and choose the best router within my budget. Sadly, the website seems abandoned now, so I'm not sure if there is something new on the market or if the routers on his "Best" rank, are still valid options. By the way, I don't really game online.

My requirements are:

• 150€ budget, but willing to go to 200€ if really worth it;
• Mesh compatibility, just in case I need it in the future;
• Hopefully very low packet loss maybe 0-0.5%;
• Compatibility/support with open source firmware;
• Maybe VPN support (not sure, if worth it);
• 2.5Gb LAN ports would be nice for future-proofing, but I think this is not possible without going over the budget;
• Something that I don't know and never heard about, but you would really recommend it to me :).

After a first glance, the Asus RT-AX58U looks nice. Just not sure about only having two 5GHz streams and no LAN port aggregation.

Bonus dumb question(s) (sorry): Will all the routers work with my ISP modem? Or is it normal to always check with the ISP first before buying?

Upcoming Dates:

Week 4 (Final) Update Thread -- Saturday, October 29
Timasomo Showcase Thread -- Saturday, November 5

November 1-4 are for putting finishing touches on the project to ready it for the showcase. We are quickly closing in on the end!

Update us on your progress so far!

What did/didn't you get done this week?

Anything go according to plan?

Anything go off the rails?

Any successes or struggles to share?

Switching gears from last week’s post.

After 2010, the Academy decided to switch from having a set 10 list of nominees to having a sliding scale. Meaning that each movie had to get at least a certain percentage of number one votes in order to secure a Best Picture nomination. This would lead to anywhere from 5 to 10 Best Picture nominees. But the math made it so that only 8 or 9 movies would get a Picture nomination. This was the rule until this past year (when CODA won). Why did they decide to switch to a sliding scale? No one knows for sure. Some speculate it was because indie darling The Winter’s Bone made it in over box office hit The Town. Others point to complaints from Academy member’s who couldn’t think of 10 movies to nominate.

Ever since then though, those of us into awards have wondered what would have made it in had the Oscar’s kept that set 10 line-up. Here’s what I think would have gotten in. I think some of these might be shocking to some of you.

2011:

Already in: The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, The Help, Moneyball, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, War Horse, and The Tree of Life

Next in line: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Other possibility: Bridesmaids

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo was nominated at the DGA, something usually reserved for movies in the top 5. It was also nominated at PGA, the combo of which usually results in a Best Picture nomination. It also ended up winning Film Editing, which are usually Picture nominees.

Bridesmaids is another possibility, having been nominated for Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress as well as getting nominated for PGA and SAG Ensemble.

2012:

Already in: Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, D’jango Unchained, Les Mis, Zero Dark Thirty, Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Next in line: Skyfall

With a nomination at PGA plus winning the BAFTA for Best British Film along with several tech nominations, considerable critical acclaim and a billion dollars, makes Skyfall an easy choice for Best Picture.

2013:

Already in: 12 Years A Slave, Gravity, American Hustle, The Wolf of Wall Street, Dallas Buyers Club, Nebraska, Captain Phillips, Her, Philomena

Next in line: Blue Jasmine

Woody Allen’s last Oscar success, getting nominations for Original Screenplay, Lead Actress, and Supporting Actress. There’s nothing else that would have made Picture, and this made PGA.

2014:

Already in: Birdman, Boyhood, The Imitation Game, The Grand Budapest Hotel, American Sniper, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash, Selma

Next in line: Foxcatcher and Interstellar

Other possibilities: Mr Turner, Nightcrawler, Gone Girl

With nominations in Director, Lead Actor, Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay, Foxcatcher is an easy 9th place. In fact it’s odd that it missed a Best Picture nomination to begin with.

The tricky part with this year is what came in 10th. Nightcrawler and Gone Girl had similar awards trajectories including getting nominations at PGA (although Gone Girl was helped by being a box office hit). They ultimately both missed crucial nominations. Nightcrawler missed Lead Actor for Jake Gyllenhaal (in favor of Bradley Cooper in American Sniper) and Gone Girl missed a nomination in Adapted Screenplay (in favor of Inherent Vice). Interstellar recieved many technical nomintations and was a big hit with audiences, which distinguishes itself from Mr. Turner which recieved the same amount of nominations.

2015:

Already in: Spotlight, The Revenant, The Big Short, Mad Mad: Fury Road, The Martian, Room, Brooklyn, Bridge of Spies

Next in Line: Carol and Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Other Possibilties: Straight Outta Compton, Ex Machina, Sicario, Inside Out, The Hateful Eight

This was another year where the 9th place was very clear (with several technical nomiations as well as nominations in Lead Actress, Supporting Actress, and Adapted Screenplay for Carol).

But 10th place was muddy. All of these movies have their own reasons for making Picture (Original Screenplay nominations for Straight Outta Compton, Ex Machina, and Inside Out and several tech nominations for Sicario and The Hateful Eight). But I think what would have made the cut was Star Wars. It got several tech nominations, including a nomination in Film Editing which is usually only reserved for Picture nominees. As well as incredible hype, box office prowess, and pretty good reviews. Star Wars would have distinguished itself while the other more typical prestige contenders would split the vote.

2016:

Already in: Moonlight, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hidden Figures, Lion, Fences, Hell or High Water

Next in line: Jackie

There wasn’t really an alternative here as PGA and WGA were busy nominating Deadpool. And movies like Nocturnal Animals and 20th Century Women severely underperformed.

Plus, Fox Searchlight was backing this film and they’re usually powerhouse campaigners.

2017:

Already in: The Shape of Water, Three Billboards, Get Out, Lady Bird, Dunkirk, Darkest Hour, The Post, Phantom Thread, Call Me By Your Name

Next in line: I, Tonya

Other possibilities: Baby Driver, Blade Runner 2049

I, Tonya got nominated for Lead and Supporting Actress and Film Editing. Baby Driver got nominated for the two sound categories and Film Editing (same nominations as Ford vs Ferrari) and Blade Runner got nominated in a lot of tech categories and won Cinematography, which are usually only Best Picture nominees.

However, I, Tonya had a lot going for it. Including the lack of genre bias (as opposed to Baby Driver and Blade Runner), and a Supporting Actress win for Allison Janney.

2018:

Already in: Green Book, Roma, The Favourite, Blackkklansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, A Star is Born, Vice, Black Panther

Next in line: If Beale Street Could Talk and Cold War

Other possibilities: First Man, Mary Poppins Returns

Beale Street is an easy 9th, having been nominated for Adapted Screenplay and Original Score, and having won Supporting Actress.

10th could go a couple of ways. Cold War was nominated for Director and Cinematography (as well as International). It had great critical reception, won an award at Cannes, and Amazon ended up prioritizing it after Beauitful Boy kind of flopped.

First Man bombed at the box office and severely underperformed with nominations. Missing things that were supposedly locks, including Cinematography, Film Editing, Adapted Screenplay, and Supporting Actress and even missing Original Score in which it was supposedly the front-runner (which is what led to Black Panther winning). Even then it got a few noms and maybe could have limped it’s way to the 10th spot.

Mary Poppins Returns ended up underperforming throughout the season. But unlike First Man, Mary Poppins Returns was a box office hit, and only missed one nomination (Lead Actress). There’s definitely an argument to be made that this was 10th, and I think it would come quite close to making it.

2019:

Already in: Parasite, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Irishman, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, Marriage Story, Little Women, Ford vs Ferrari

Next in line: Knives Out

Other possibility: The Two Popes.

Knives Out got nomianted at PGA and was nominated for Original Screenplay. It was also a box office hit at a time when the Oscar’s were moving towards nominating more of those.

The Two Popes was nominated for Lead Actor, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay. But, Netflix struggles with more than two movies at a time (as we’ve seen in recent years with them missing Picture with Tick Tick Boom and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). And Knives Out had more passion.

2020: Already in: Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Mank, Sound of Metal, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah

Next in line: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and News of the World

Other possibilities: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, One Night in Miami

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, while critically liked, had incredibly low audience scores. It ended up missing a crucial Adapted Screenaply nomination. One Night in Miami was really weak throughout the season and Amazon ended up switching all their resources to Sound of Metal. So I don’t think either of these films would make the Picture line-up at the end of the day.

Borat got nominated for Adapted Screenplay (over Ma Rainey) and Supporitng Actress. It was also nominated at PGA and won the Comedy Globe. Maria Bakalova was also the runner-up in Supporting Actress. Borat was a big hit, everyone was talking about it, and it hit the zeitgeist in a way that few streaming films do. It was such a strong reflection of the COVID era, I can’t imagine it misses Picture at the end of the day.

News of the World had a lot of below-the-line support. And while it didn’t have a lot of passion, it was better liked than Ma Rainey and One Night in Miami, at least by audiences. It scratched a crowd-pleasing oscar bait itch that not many films did during this time.

And that’s it.

I found out about these types of games about three years ago. I attempted playing Zork I, as well as this other film where you’re trying to get inside something and apparently it turns into a time travel game where you meet The Beatles (and if someone knows the title of that game I would really appreciate it because I’ve forgotten).

I’ve been fascinated by some of these games. Big problem though, is that I suck at video games in general, and these text adventure games are particularly brutal. I saw some video about Zork, which were great, but for some of them (like the aforementioned time travel game) don’t have videos. So is there a way to just read it like a book. I’ve found guides on how to complete the games, but even those leave me lost and confused.

The academy expanded the line-up after snubbing The Dark Knight in Picture in favor of Oscar bait The Reader. They received so much backlash that they reverted to nominating 10 nominees each year, something that hadn’t been done since the 40s.

While there are now multiple Best Picture nominees each year, each year there are a designated “Top 5.” As in the films that would have made the cut pre-expansion. Here’s a list of possible Top 5 movies, there’s a lot of argument about which movie was which but this is generally what is accepted/kind of what I think.

2009: The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Inglorious Basterds, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire, Up in the Air

All 5 movies were nominated for Director. 4 of the 5 were nominated for Film Editing (another mark of a top 5 film) and all except Avatar were nominated for Acting and Screenplay. Avatar got nominated in almost all the technical categories.

2010: The King’s Speech, The Social Network, The Fighter, Black Swan, True Grit

Barely misses the cut: Inception

Inception, unfortunately, undeperformed with nominations missing both Directing and Film Editing, and was never in contention for acting nominations. It misses in favor of True Grit which was a late-breaker and over-performed in nominations.

2011: The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, The Help

Barely misses: Moneyball

The Help arguably underperformed with nominations but it was such a big hit that I’d imagine it would still make Best Picture.

2012: Argo, Lincoln, Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook, D’jango Unchained

Misses: Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables

Zero Dark Thirty started dying out throughout the season, and Les Mis was more of a British thing. D’jango had a lot of passion and ended up becoming the front-runner in Original Screenplay and Supporting Actor.

2013: 12 Years A Slave, Gravity, American Hustle, The Wolf of Wall Street, Dallas Buyers Club

Misses: Nebraska, Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club over-performed and got nominated for Film Editing and Original Screenplay when it wasn’t expected to.

2014: Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, American Sniper

Misses: The Theory of Everything

Similar thing with Les Mis where Theory of Everything was more of a British thing.

2015: Spotlight, The Revenant, The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian

Misses: Room

The Martian missed director but it had more nominations and it was a hit at the box office. Although Room probably was pretty close.

2016: Moonlight, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge

Misses: Hidden Figures

Hidden Figures maybe would have made the line-up considering it was such a big hit. But Hacksaw won too much stuff and Mel Gibson had a strong comeback narrative. Gross.

2017: The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird

There is no real alternative to these five.

2018: Green Book, Roma, The Favourite, Blackkklansman, Bohemian Rhapsody

Misses: Vice, A Star is Born

Bohemian Rhapsody was a phenomenon and won four Oscars. It would have gotten a Best Picture nomination easily.

2019: Parasite, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Irishman, Joker

Jojo Rabbit was close. But four of these got 10 nominations and Parasite won Best Picture.

2020: Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Promising Young Woman, Minari, Mank

Misses: The Father

2021: The Power of the Dog, Belfast, Dune, West Side Story, King Richard

Misses: Licorice Pizza

At the time of nominations CODA would not have made the cut. It is the first Best Picture winner to be bottom 5.

Given how the 2020s have gone so far, I'm feeling some meaningful concern about the news that we might be getting rolling blackouts if European fuel supplies get too low. I'm not at all sure whether they're overplaying the risk to prepare people, or dramatically underplaying it as they did with the first COVID lockdowns.

I'd be interested to know what, if anything, people recommend as preparation? I don't want to go overkill on something that may not even happen, but it also seems reasonable to consider the issue before everyone starts panic buying supplies.

I'm in the middle of a city, which has definite advantages in terms of walking access to shops and public buildings, but everything I own (including gas boiler and gas stove) needs electricity to run. It seems like a 500Wh LiFePO battery might be a good middle ground in terms of keeping creature comforts up and running, but they aren't exactly cheap so I'd be interested in any opinions and recommendations there?

More broadly it'd be great to hear what people think about the general risks, good preparations to make, and useful supplies that are easy to overlook?

I've been slowly more frustrated by the Spotify client updates particularly on android and short of getting all my music offline which I'd like to do eventually I want an alternative client that isn't going to change the layout constantly and make listening to the music I want to listen to any more difficult than it should be.

I'd also like to filter out podcasts if possible because I have my way of listening to podcasts and spotify filling my home screen with them isn't going to make me any more likely to use them. Especially if they keep fucking pushing podcast episodes featuring deceased family members just to ruin my morning.