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27 votes
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Firebrick thermal energy storage could reach 170 GW in the US by 2050
24 votes -
What are you reading these days?
What are you reading currently? Fiction or non-fiction or poetry, any genre, any language! Tell us what you're reading, and talk about it a bit.
20 votes -
Global average solar Levelized Cost of Electricity stood at $0.044/kWh in 2023, says IRENA
8 votes -
Kentucky sues Express Scripts, alleging it had a role in the deadly opioid addiction crisis
15 votes -
Your politics are boring as fuck
17 votes -
Gender Census 2024: Worldwide report
21 votes -
Our Android app is frozen in carbonite
20 votes -
Midweek Movie Free Talk
Warning: this post may contain spoilers
Have you watched any movies recently you want to discuss? Any films you want to recommend or are hyped about? Feel free to discuss anything here.
Please just try to provide fair warning of spoilers if you can.
8 votes -
Anti-immigration mood sweeping EU capitals puts strain on bloc’s unity. From Germany’s border checks to France’s vow to restore order, rejection of open borders could threaten Schengen zone.
13 votes -
OpenAI pushes ahead with for-profit plans and talks to give Sam Altman a stake
33 votes -
The attempt to reform Intel
8 votes -
What did you do this week (and weekend)?
As part of a weekly series, these topics are a place for users to casually discuss the things they did — or didn't do — during their week. Did you accomplish any goals? Suffer a failure? Do...
As part of a weekly series, these topics are a place for users to casually discuss the things they did — or didn't do — during their week. Did you accomplish any goals? Suffer a failure? Do nothing at all? Tell us about it!
3 votes -
Icelandic-Danish artist Olafur Eliasson is set to take over some of the world's biggest public spaces in his most impressive installation piece yet
5 votes -
Looking for interesting or unconventional wedding ring jewelers/designers
I'm in the market for wedding bands. Rather than settling for a traditional plain gold wedding band, I want to explore the more artistic options. Jewelry has rarely ever worked for me, either I...
I'm in the market for wedding bands. Rather than settling for a traditional plain gold wedding band, I want to explore the more artistic options. Jewelry has rarely ever worked for me, either I take it off and forget about it or lose it, hopefully something ultra unique will help make it an exception. Ideally something under 1000 Euro/USD. Of course I'm shopping around my city and neighboring ones as well, since you never know where you'll find a hidden gem.
Ideally I would find an artisanal jeweler in Europe. But as an example of what inspired me is this Patrick Adair: https://patrickadairdesigns.com/ I first found about him when I saw videos of how he made rings from superconductor coils/cables. He uses a very wide range of materials and I find almost all of his work aesthetically pleasing, even if I wouldn't wear most of them.
20 votes -
Meta Connect 2024: biggest news and announcements
12 votes -
BCD Watch automatically collects and makes available information about updates to Browser Compatibility Data
3 votes -
Ask the Developer Vol. 13, The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom — Part 1 & 2
10 votes -
A successful commercial icebreaker program: Le Commandant Charcot
5 votes -
Balatro Mobile coming to Google Play, Apple Arcade and App Store on September 26th
40 votes -
Monocausality bias, essentialism, modernist grand narratives, and the awesomeness of statistical uncertainty
#This is a "shower thought" more than a properly empirically researched idea, so it is presented without any citations. This lack of resources is also a reference to many modernist philosophers,...
#This is a "shower thought" more than a properly empirically researched idea, so it is presented without any citations. This lack of resources is also a reference to many modernist philosophers, whom I dearly appreciate.
Modernist theories famously tried to get at "the truth behind eveything". For example, majority of both pro- and anti-capitalists thought that history was progressing in a linear tract, and that there was such a thing as end of history. So, they tried to find the drive of history. Famously, Marx claimed to have found it in historical materialism. Similarly, many pro-capitalists have declared The End of History when USSR fell.
Both of these claims were made on the idea that a single mechanism was behind the progress of history, therefore almost everything.
It is my thesis that this was and is an extension of essentialist thinking. Such a way of thinking looked for "the essence" of the object of study, because it assumed an (singular) essence drove the object to behave the way it did. There were no multiple causes, only a single cause—if you could find it, you could explain the object in its entirety.
Modernist philosophers updated this idea a bit. They didn't look for a Platonic idea, for example, but they looked for "the drive behind the object". While they were more materialist, it was also a quasi-metaphysical endeavor.
I'm going to quote Marx's historical materialism again, because it's one modernist narrative I'm familiar with—simply put, it was such an attempt. While the historical materialist narrative touched on many great things about humanity (e.g. the plasticity of "human nature", the dependence of culture on material conditions), it overreached and overreduced history to a single mechanism. It seemingly recognized the role of other mechanisms, but decidedly explained away their importance in contrast to what Marx saw as "productive forces".
This was an extension of Hegelian dialectics, but reversed. Hegel assumed thought drove materialist changes. Marx flipped this over. However, both of these were still highly metaphysical, highly essentialist.
Essentialism's mistake, in this context, is not only that it is metaphysical, it's also that it reduces the object of study to a monocausal explanation. It looks for only one cause. However, as the advance of scientific and most specifically statistical knowledge shows, there are always multiple causes to complex phenomena.
This revolution in thinking was a great attack on modernist and all the preceding grand narratives. Statistics especially was important in this. The more an explanation -any explanation- was tested in scientific contexts the more it was apparent that no single cause was able to explain everything. Nevermind that, as both natural and social scientists became aware, most of the time a single cause wasn't able to explain most (>50%) of the variation seen in a study.
Another result of statistical thinking, if one is willing to consider all its implications, is that uncertainty is an inherent part of everything we do and explain. There is no epistemic certainty, nothing we can know for certain. So, everything is always, at some level, a working hypothesis. This doesn't mean that everything is equally plausible, but that we can never be 100% certain about our explanations, neither in science nor in anything.
Why is this so? Because inferential statistics is structured to give an idea about the uncertainty of the inference we are doing, based on our observations. In short, it always assumes there are "error bars" or something of equivalent function.
This is the second implication of this revolution—we should be aware of uncertainty and embrace it.
In summary, there were two important results of this revolution in thinking.
- Monocausality bias hinders thinking. In complex phenomena, natural or social, there are most likely multiple important drives (causes).
- Rejecting the inherent epistemic uncertainty of our explanations and embracing the psychological certainty of monocausal explanations would be a folly.
Again, and I cannot stress this enough, this doesn't mean everything is equally plausible (doing so is also counter to statistical thinking!). But realizing the value in this approach provides a great deal of flexibility of the mind, and it makes it much less likely that a person would seek comfort in psychologically certain, essentialist or quasi-essentialist narratives. It makes it less likely so that you fall victim to overly reductive but confident-sounding explanations.
It also allows one to critically examine modernist and previous explanations, both in positive and negative ways. Grand narratives, I think, touch on many great topics and have insight, but they fall victim to overreductive monocausality bias. If you can separate them from that, then you find a source of rich thinking styles. It seems that sociology does this with thinkers such as Marx, Weber, and more.
This, I think, is one of the greater revolutions in the "post-modern" era. Post-modern thinking is often associated with extreme skepticism, to the point of declaring everything unknowable, however, this would be reductive. In the way I described, being skeptical of such grand explanations and embracing multicausality and uncertainty is an extremely productive approach.
This, however, does not mean essentialist, monocausal, modernist, etc. thinking is defeated and gone. "Lightning and thunder require time; the light of the stars requires time; deeds, though done, still require time to be seen and heard."
Of course, despite the quote, there is nothing sure about the eventual victory of this better way of thinking. However, even in the case that it could become the dominant mode of thought, it will take a great deal of time and active struggle against the old ideas and powers-that-be.
17 votes -
Save Point: A game deal roundup for the week of September 22
Add awesome game deals to this topic as they come up over the course of the week! Alternately, ask about a given game deal if you want the community’s opinions: e.g. “What games from this bundle...
Add awesome game deals to this topic as they come up over the course of the week!
Alternately, ask about a given game deal if you want the community’s opinions: e.g. “What games from this bundle are most worth my attention?”
Rules:
- No grey market sales
- No affiliate links
If posting a sale, it is strongly encouraged that you share why you think the available game/games are worthwhile.
All previous Save Point topics
If you don’t want to see threads in this series, add
save point
to your personal tag filters.9 votes -
You can learn Lord of the Rings’ Elvish — just not Tolkien's version
26 votes -
Drug-free nasal spray blocks, neutralizes viruses, bacteria
14 votes -
Comprehensive bipartisan plastics recycling bill tackles plastics pollution in US
27 votes -
Russia-Ukraine War megathread - September 2024
We haven't had one of these in a while, but it looks like there's more news than usual. There was a previous thread in June.
22 votes -
The white collar apocalypse is nigh
30 votes -
Barcelona is turning subway trains into power stations
13 votes -
Frog Protocols announced to try and speed up Wayland protocol development
16 votes -
Maria | Official teaser
2 votes -
Southern Water, serving 4.7mn UK customers, in discussions with private supplier to tanker water from Norwegian fjords to mitigate against potential supply shortages and drought
11 votes -
Fitness Weekly Discussion
What have you been doing lately for your own fitness? Try out any new programs or exercises? Have any questions for others about your training? Want to vent about poor behavior in the gym? Started...
What have you been doing lately for your own fitness? Try out any new programs or exercises? Have any questions for others about your training? Want to vent about poor behavior in the gym? Started a new diet or have a new recipe you want to share? Anything else health and wellness related?
3 votes -
Cameroonian separatist leader Lucas Ayaba Cho arrested in Norway for his alleged role in the ongoing armed conflict in the Central African country
5 votes -
Why eight Tokyo minutes from office to metro is too long – The city is seeing a boom in commercial construction but labour scarcity has made location a critical concern for companies
13 votes -
The Cure - Alone (2024)
6 votes -
Russia and Iran plot to arm Houthis with advanced anti-ship cruise missiles – Reuters
17 votes -
Amtrak launching the Floridian, with daily service between Chicago and Miami
46 votes -
Thai king signs same-sex marriage bill into law
45 votes -
Three Cheers for Tildes: App updates and feedback (September 2024) — Version 1.1 adds an in-app YouTube player
This topic is for the Three Cheers for Tildes mobile app. I'll summarize the major updates at the start of each similar topic, so people can read the updates and then hit Ignore if they don't care...
This topic is for the Three Cheers for Tildes mobile app.
I'll summarize the major updates at the start of each similar topic, so people can read the updates and then hit Ignore if they don't care about more frequent updates and user feedback.
Recently:
Three Cheers version 1.1 is out for Android and iOS! (Sep 14, 2024)
- Added an in-app YouTube player
- Added 2 settings related to YouTube and autoplay
- Tweaked the labels dialog UI
- (Android) Fixed Back button navigation in the WebView
- (iOS) Fixed UI bug commenting on a deeply nested comment
Android version 1.1.2 (Oct 4, 2024): Fixed YouTube player setting, should take priority over Browser type setting. Fixed a UI bug with ignored topics appearing unignored.
Some technical details: The YouTube player uses the YouTube IFrame Player API using the Android and iOS wrapper libraries. They are both open source and I was able to submit some improvement patches to them.
Regarding release schedule: Prior to version 1.0 of the app, I was working (a little too) hard on the app and putting out monthly megathreads. These days I'm allocating my time differently, so topics won't be monthly. Please continue to feel free to reach out, whether posting in the megathread even if months old, or emailing me using the contact info on the app store pages, or using iOS TestFlight feedback functionality.
Huge thank you to the few people who have set up a recurring donation in the app. From a worker perspective, it's still a tiny tiny amount if comparing with an actual wage developing apps, but luckily for my users, I'm not trying to make a wage from this app, and plan to continue developing it at my own pace. That does mean that updates will be somewhat unpredictable though.
Previous topic: May 2024
Where to get it
Android version on Google Play Store: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.talklittle.android.tildes
Or sideloadable APK at https://www.talklittle.com/three-cheers/
iOS version on the App Store: https://apps.apple.com/app/three-cheers-for-tildes/id6470950557
Join TestFlight for iOS beta testing: https://testflight.apple.com/join/mpVk1qIy
91 votes -
Los Angeles police raid goes bad after gun allegedly sucked onto MRI machine
57 votes -
The painful secret many people live with: The fatal flaw -- A deep-seated, entrenched feeling/belief that you are somehow different from other people; that something is wrong with you
41 votes -
Scientific rigor proponents retract paper on benefits of scientific rigor
13 votes -
Charles Dance to play Michelangelo in docudrama Renaissance: The Blood and the Beauty
6 votes -
‘I’m motivated by the puzzle’: how Courtney Dauwalter became ultrarunning’s GOAT
11 votes -
US Republicans’ electoral college edge, once seen as ironclad, looks to be fading
23 votes -
Viewport Tester — Test your website on 180+ device viewports
15 votes -
US DOJ sues Visa, alleges the card issuer monopolizes debit card markets
39 votes -
You're a cyclist who was just struck by a car driver. Here's why it was your fault.
39 votes -
Modeling shows that reconductoring can quickly beef up grids
6 votes -
Poppy - they're all around us (2024)
17 votes