Okay, I promise this is the last time I’ll make one of these posts for the rest of the year.

The major fall festivals (TIFF, Telluride, and Venice) happened. So many movies got mediocre reception at these festivals (namely Alejandro Gonzalez Inaritu’s Bardo, Florian Zeller’s The Son, and Sam Mendes’s Empire of Light).

So the race has taken a more serious shape. Here are the old predictions.

Here are the renewed predictions:

Picture:

1. The Fabelmans
2. Babylon
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. The Banshees of Inisherin
6. Women Talking
7. Elvis
8. TAR
9. The Whale
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Alt: Top Gun: Maverick

Director:

1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
2. Damien Chazelle - Babylon
3. James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. Todd Field - TAR

DGA Snub: Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin

Lead Actor:

1. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
2. Austin Butler - Elvis
3. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Bill Nighy - Living
5. Hugh Jackman - The Son

Alt: Diego Calva - Babylon

Lead Actress:

1. Margot Robbie - Babylon
2. Naomi Ackie - I Wanna Dance With Somebody
3. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Cate Blanchett - TAR
5. Olivia Colman - Empire of Light

Alt: Jennifer Lawrence - Causeway

Supporting Actor:

1. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
4. Brad Pitt - Babylon
5. Ben Wishaw - Women Talking

Alt: Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin

Supporting Actress:

1. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
2. Claire Foy - Women Talking
3. Sadie Sink - The Whale
4. Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Janelle Monae - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Alt: Nina Hoss - TAR

Original Screenplay:

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Babylon
4. The Fabelmans
5. TAR

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Women Talking
2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
3. The Whale
4. Living
5. Bones & All

Cinematography:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. Empire of Light
5. The Batman

Production Design:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Babylon
3. The Fablemans
4. Elvis
5. Amsterdam

Costume Design

1. Babylon
2. The Fabelmans
3. Elvis
4. Amsterdam
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hair and Make-up

1. The Whale
2. Elvis
3. The Batman
4. Babylon
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Original Score:

1. The Fabelmans
2. Babylon
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Women Talking
5. Empire of Light

Sound:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Babylon
4. Elvis
5. The Fabelmans

Film Editing:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. Elvis

VFX:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
5. The Batman

The Emmy’s are happening right now. I’ll put the winners here as they’re happening.

Lead Actor Limited Series: Michael Keaton - Dopesick

Supporting Actor Limited Series: Murray Bartlett - The White Lotus

Supporting Actor Drama: Matthew McFayden - Succession

Supporting Actress Drama: Julia Garner - Ozark

Supporting Actress Comedy: Sheryl Lee Ralph - Abbott Elementary

Supporting Actor Comedy: Brett Goldstein - Ted Lasso

Variety Sketch Series: Saturday Night Live

Variety Talk Series: Last Week Tonight

Supporting Actress Limited: Jennifer Coolidge - The White Lotus

Lead Actress Limited: Amanda Seyfried - The Dropout

Competition Program: Lizzo's Watch Out For The Big Grrrls

Limited Directing: Mike White - The White Lotus

Limited Series Writing: Mike White - The White Lotus

Variety Special Writing: Jerrord Carmichael

Lead Actor Comedy: Jason Sudeikis - Ted Lasso

Comedy Series Writing: Abbott Elementary

Drama Series Directing: Squid Games

Lead Actress Drama: Zendaya - Euphoria

Lead Actress Comedy: Jean Smart - Hacks

Comedy Series Directing: MJ Delaney - Ted Lasso

Drama Series Writing: All The Bells Say - Succession

Lead Actor Drama: LEE JUNG-JAE - SQUID GAMES

Limited Series: The White Lotus

Comedy Series: Ted Lasso

Drama Series: Succession

Drama:

1. The Fabelmans
2. Empire of Light
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. The Whale
5. Women Talking

Musical/Comedy:

1. Babylon
2. Bardo
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Elvis
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Director:

1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
2. Damien Chazelle - Babylon
3. Sam Mendes - Empire of Light
4. James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
5. Baz Luhrmann - Elvis

Actor - Drama:

1. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
2. Hugh Jackman - The Son
3. Adam Driver - White Noise
4. Bill Nighy - Living
5. Tom Cruise - Top Gun: Maverick

Actress - Drama:

1. Naomie Ackie - I Wanna Dance With Somebody
2. Olivia Colman - Empire of Light
3. Cate Blanchett - TAR
4. Frances McDormand - Women Talking
5. Danielle Deadwyle - Till

Actor - Musical/Comedy:

1. Austin Butler - Elvis
2. Daniel Cacho - Bardo
3. Christian Bale - Amsterdam
4. Daniel Craig - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
5. Billy Eichner - Bros

Actress - Musical/Comedy:

1. Margot Robbie - Babylon
2. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Margot Robbie - Amsterdam
4. Janelle Monae - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
5. Sandra Bullock - The Lost City

Supporting Actor:

1. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
2. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Tom Hanks - Elvis
4. Colin Firth - Empire of Light
5. Brad Pitt - Babylon

Supporting Actress:

1. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
2. Jessie Buckley - Women Talking
3. Sadie Sink - The Whale
4. Greta Gerwig - White Noise
5. Laura Dern - The Son

Screenplay:

1. Babylon
2. The Fabelmans
3. Bardo
4. Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. Women Talking

Original Score:

1. The Fabelmans
2. Empire of Light
3. Babylon
4. Women Talking
5. Avatar: The Way of Water

I wouldn’t be doing an update this early on but there were recent news of many movies being delayed to 2023 including Killers of the Flower Moon and Rustin.

Here’s the last one: https://tildes.net/~movies/11ix/early_predictions_for_the_2023_oscars

Picture:

1. The Fabelmans
2. Empire of Light
3. Bardo
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
5. Babylon
6. The Whale
7. Women Talking
8. Elvis
9. Everything Everywhere All At Once
10. White Noise

Director:

1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
2. Sam Mendes - Empire of Light
3. James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Damien Chazelle - Babylon
5. Alejandro G Innaritu - Bardo

Original Screenplay:

1. The Fabelmans
2. Babylon
3. Empire of Light
4. Bardo
5. Everything Everywhere All At Once

Adapted Screenplay

1. White Noise
2. Women Talking
3. The Whale
4. The Son
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Lead Actor:

1. Austin Butler - Elvis
2. Adam Driver - White Noise
3. Daniel Cacho - Bardo
4. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
5. Hugh Jackman - The Son

Lead Actress:

1. Margot Robbie - Babylon
2. Cate Blanchett - TAR
3. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Olivia Colman - Empire of Light
5. Naomie Ackie - I Wanna Dance With Somebody

Supporting Actor:

1. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
2. Seth Rogen - The Fabelmans
3. Ben Wishaw - Women Talking
4. Colin Firth - Empire of Light
5. Brad Pitt - Babylon

Supporting Actress:

1. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
2. Jessie Buckley - Women Talking
3. Sadie Sink - The Whale
4. Laura Dern - The Son
5. Greta Gerwig - White Noise

Animated Feature:

1. Strange World
2. My Father's Dragon
3. Turning Red
4. Pinnochio
5. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Best Original Score:

1. The Fabelmans
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Women Talking
4. Babylon
5. Empire of Light

Best Sound:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Elvis
4. Babylon
5. Bardo

Best Production Design:

1. Babylon
2. Amsterdam
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Empire of Light
5. Elvis

Best Cinematography:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Bardo
3. Babylon
4. Empire of Light
5. The Fabelmans

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

1. Elvis
2. The Whale
3. White Noise
4. Babylon
5. The Batman

Best Costume Design:

1. Elvis
2. Amsterdam
3. Babylon
4. Empire of Light
5. The Fabelmans

Best Film Editing:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. Elvis

Best Visual Effects:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
4. The Batman
5. Everything Everywhere All At Once

It’s the summer movie season, which means that Oscar season is right around the corner. Here are my current predictions for what gets nominated. Not everything will end up happening, last year I had The Last Duel making several categories and it ended up getting blanked. You can see my previous relatively early predictions here

The Cannes Film Festival happened and it was a total bust. Doesn’t seem like there will be a Cannes breakout this year like last year’s Drive My Car.

Picture:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Empire of Light
3. The Fabelmans
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
5. Babylon
6. The Whale
7. Poor Things
8. Women Talking
9. Elvis
10. Thirteen Lives

Director:

1. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Sam Mendes - Empire of Light
3. James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Damien Chazelle - Babylon
5. Sarah Polley - Women Talking

Original Screenplay:

1. Empire of Light
2. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. Thirteen Lives
5. TAR

Adapted Screenplay

1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Poor Things
3. Women Talking
4. The Whale
5. The Son

Lead Actor:

1. Austin Butler - Elvis
2. Hugh Jackman - The Son
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
5. Colman Domingo - Rustin

Lead Actress:

1. Margot Robbie - Babylon
2. Cate Blanchett - TAR
3. Emma Stone - Poor Things
4. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Olivia Colman - Empire of Light

Supporting Actor:

1. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
2. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Ben Wishaw - Women Talking
4. Colin Firth - Empire of Light
5. Brad Pitt - Babylon

Supporting Actress:

1. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
2. Jessie Buckley - Women Talking
3. Sadie Sink - The Whale
4. Laura Dern - The Son
5. Jean Smart - Babylon

Animated Feature:

1. Lightyear
2. Strange World
3. Turning Red
4. Pinnochio
5. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Best Original Score:

1. Empire of Light
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Women Talking
4. Babylon
5. Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Original Song:

1. Hold My Hands by Lady Gaga from Top Gun: Maverick
2. Carolina by Taylor Swift from Where The Crawdad Sing?
3. Nobody Like U by Billie Eillish and Finneas from Turning Red
4. On My Way by Jennifer Lopez from Marry Me
5. Vegas by Doja Cat from Elvis (might be ineligible)

Best Sound:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Babylon
5. Thirteen Lives

Best Production Design:

1. Babylon
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Empire of Light
5. Elvis

Best Cinematography:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Babylon
4. Empire of Light
5. Poor Things

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

1. The Batman
2. Elvis
3. The Whale
4. Babylon
5. Poor Things

Best Costume Design:

1. Poor Things
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Babylon
4. Empire of Light
5. Elvis

Best Film Editing:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Babylon
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Thirteen Lives
5. Elvis

Best Visual Effects:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
4. The Batman
5. Thirteen Lives

I might end up switching things around but these seem pretty solid.

Best Picture: CODA

Best Director: Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog

Best Lead Actor: Will Smith - King Richard

Best Lead Actress: Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur - CODA

Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose - West Side Story

Best Original Screenplay: Don't Look Up. Story by Adam McKay and David Sirota. Screenplay by Adam Mckay.

Best Adapted Screenplay: CODA. Screenplay by Sian Heder. Based on the motion picture La Famille Bélier

Best Cinematography: Dune

Best Costume Design: Cruella

Best Film Editing: Dune (Edit: I switched to King Richard)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Production Design: Dune

Best Original Score: Dune

Best Original Song: No Time To Die

Best Sound: Dune

Best Visual Effects: Dune

Best Animated Feature: Encanto

Best Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul

Best International Film: Drive My Car

Best Animated Short: Robin Robin

Beat Documentary Short: The Queen of Basketball (Edit: Switched to Audible)

Best Live Action Short: The Long Goodbye

Hey everyone. I know there's a few people here interested in film, but the majority aren't really. With the Oscars right around the corner, I was curious as to how many of this years nominees you have seen. Here's the Wikipedia page to see the nominees.

I've seen all the Best Picture nominees and most of the acting contenders. Notably I haven't seen Spencer, Parallel Mothers, and The Worst Person in the World which I will try to watch by the time of the ceremony. This year I have seen 4 of the Best Picture nominees in theaters (Belfast, Licorice Pizza, West Side Story and Dune). This is in comparison to last years 0 (obviously) and the year before's 5 (1917, Little Women, Parasite, Joker, and Once Upon A Time Hollywood). The rest I saw through streaming.

If I had to rank this year's Best Picture nominees, this would be the order:

1. West Side Story
2. Licorice Pizza
3. Don't Look Up
4. Belfast
5. Nightmare Alley
6. King Richard
7. Drive My Car
8. The Power of the Dog
9. CODA
10. Dune

What about you guys?

Okay, I’ve been bombarding all of you with article after article of what other award shows have been nominating and awarding.

Here are the nominations for what I had in November. It’s interesting to see how much has changed, sadly it seems like The Last Duel is going to end up with zero awards.

Anyways, if you have an Oscar pool going what I’m about to give you would probably put you at the top if your friends don’t follow awards. I did place 30 out of 2200 on Goldderby for my BAFTA nomination predictions so there’s that.

Here’s what I have, in order of what is most likely to win as of right now:

Best Picture

1. The Power of the Dog
2. Belfast
3. Licorice Pizza
4. Dune
5. Don’t Look Up
6. West Side Story
7. King Richard
8. CODA
9. tick, tick... BOOM!
10. Being the Ricardos

Alternative choice: House of Gucci

Best Director

1. Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog
2. Paul Thomas Anderson - Licorice Pizza
3. Denis Villeneuve - Dune
4. Kenneth Branagh - Belfast
5. Steven Spielberg - West Side Story

Alternative choice: Adam McKay - Don’t Look Up

Best Lead Actor

1. Will Smith - King Richard
2. Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog
3. Andrew Garfield - tick, tick... BOOM!
4. Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of Macbeth
5. Leonardo DiCaprio - Don’t Look Up

Alternative choice: Javier Bardem - Being the Ricardos

Best Lead Actress

1. Lady Gaga - House of Gucci
2. Alana Haim - Licorice Pizza
3. Nicole Kidman - Being the Ricardos
4. Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye
5. Olivia Colman - The Lost Daughter

Alternative choice: Rachel Zegler - West Side Story

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kodi Smit-Mcphee - The Power of the Dog
2. Ciaran Hinds - Belfast
3. Troy Kotsure - CODA
4. Bradley Cooper - Licorice Pizza
5. Jared Leto - House of Gucci

Alternative choice: Jamie Dornan - Belfast

Best Supporting Actress

1. Ariana DeBose - West Side Story
2. Aunjuane Ellis - King Richard
3. Caitriona Balfe - Belfast
4. Kirsten Dunst - The Power of the Dog
5. Cate Blanchett - Don’t Look Up

Note: I’m actually taking a big risk in predicting Blanchett, Ruth Negga - Passing seems to be the most obvious fifth choice.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Licorice Pizza
2. Belfast
3. Don’t Look Up
4. King Richard
5. Being the Ricardos

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Power of the Dog
2. CODA
3. Dune
4. The Lost Daughter
5. West Side Story

Alternative choice: tick, tick... BOOM!

Best Cinematography

1. Dune
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth
3. The Power of the Dog
4. West Side Story
5. Belfast

Alternative choice: Nightmare Alley

Best Film Editing

1. Dune
2. Belfast
3. Licorice Pizza
4. The Power of the Dog
5. West Side Story

Alternative choice: Don’t Look Up

Best Costume Design

1. Cruella
2. Dune
3. West Side Story
4. House of Gucci
5. Nightmare Alley

Alt: Cyrano

Best Hair and Makeup

1. House of Gucci
2. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
3. Dune
4. Cruella
5. Coming 2 America

Alt: Cyrano

Best Production Design

1. Dune
2. West Side Story
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Nightmare Alley
5. The French Dispatch

Alt: Licorice Pizza

Best Original Score

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Don’t Look Up
4. The French Dispatch
5. Encanto

Alt: Being the Ricardos

Best Original Song

1. No Time To Die from No Time To Die
2. Dos Oruguitas from Encanto
3. Just Look Up from Don’t Look Up
4. Be Alive from King Richard
5. Down to Joy from Belfast

Alt: Guns Go Bang from The Harder They Fall

Best Sound

1. Dune
2. West Side Story
3. No Time To Die
4. The Power of the Dog
5. Spider-Man: No Way Home

Alt: A Quiet Place Part II

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home
3. No Time To Die
4. Godzilla vs Kong
5. The Matrix: Resurrections

Alt: Shang-Chi and the legend of the Ten Rings.

Best Animated Feature

1. Encanto
2. Flee
3. Luca
4. The Mitchell’s vs the Machines
5. Raya and the Last Dragon

Alt: Belle

Best Documentary Feature

1. Summer of Soul
2. Flee
3. The Rescue
4. Procession
5. Ascension

Best International Feature

1. Drive My Car
2. The Hand of God
3. Flee
4. A Hero
5. The Worst Person in the World

And those are all the categories. Oscar nominations will be announced on the 8th and of course I will be posting them.

The various guilds released their nominations today (in what’s been called D-Day for Awards followers since it’s usually not lined up like this). These are reflective of what the industry likes (and gives us really big clues as to what will end up nominated at the Oscars).

Producers Guild of America:

BEING THE RICARDOS

BELFAST

CODA

DON’T LOOK UP

DUNE

KING RICHARD

LICORICE PIZZA

THE POWER OF THE DOG

TICK TICK BOOM

WEST SIDE STORY

Directors Guild of America:

Feature Film:

Paul Thomas Anderson - Licorice Pizza

Kenneth Branagh - Belfast

Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog

Steven Spielberg - West Side Story

Denis Villeneuve - Dune

First Time Feature:

Maggie Gyllenhaal - The Lost Daughter

Rebecca Hall - Passing

Tatiana Huezo - Prayers for the Stolen

Lin-Manuel Miranda - tick, tick...BOOM!

Michael Sarnoski - Pig

Emma Seligman - Shiva Baby

Writer’s Guild of America:

Original Screenplay:

Being the Ricardos

Don’t Look Up

The French Dispatch

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Adapted Screenplay:

CODA

Dune

Nightmare Alley

tick, tick... BOOM!

West Side Story