He definitely "spends too much time on those subreddits." Being concerned is one thing. Making this concern a part of your identity is another, especially for somehing as nebulous as societal...
He definitely "spends too much time on those subreddits."
Being concerned is one thing. Making this concern a part of your identity is another, especially for somehing as nebulous as societal collapse. There is nothing wrong with turning away from a topic so you can keep it together and handle information related to it in a healthy way, especially when it is something you can't fix alone. This person should have done that years ago.
Lately, I've been trying to focus more on the "micro" compared to the "macro." I can't save the world by myself, but I can make my immediate world better for myself and those around me. I can't...
There is nothing wrong with turning away from a topic so you can keep it together and handle information related to it in a healthy way, especially when it is something you can't fix alone.
Lately, I've been trying to focus more on the "micro" compared to the "macro." I can't save the world by myself, but I can make my immediate world better for myself and those around me. I can't solve climate change, but I can pick up litter when I go for walks. I can be kind to my neighbors. I can support local businesses. And hopefully, like a pebble cast into a pond, my actions ripple out and positively affect others.
This isn't at all to say that we should stick our heads in the sand either or ignore politics and other bad news. Be aware, but also actively understand what you can and cannot control.
What you're describing is how I've been trying to operate for a few years now, and it's been a big boon for my mental health. Not to fall into a cliche, but we humans didn't evolve to handle an...
What you're describing is how I've been trying to operate for a few years now, and it's been a big boon for my mental health. Not to fall into a cliche, but we humans didn't evolve to handle an evironment with fast access to news from all over the world, particularly news tailor written to exploit that psychology.
Like you I try to make my immediate surroundings a little nicer in the small ways I can. Even if the external effect is minimal, it has a strong effect on me internally. If more people did that, the world could be an appreciably nicer place.
I think about this idea every now and again, it's absolutely correct. I read somewhere that the information we intake every day, hell every hour, is more news and information than your average...
we humans didn't evolve to handle an evironment with fast access to news
I think about this idea every now and again, it's absolutely correct. I read somewhere that the information we intake every day, hell every hour, is more news and information than your average farmer from the 1800s would have in their entire life time. To have the ability to be aware of practically everything going on around the world is a level of collective omniscience that we suddenly have to cope with, and put simply, that's a tricky thing.
And yet despite being unsuited to it, we get addicted to that firehose of data so easily! I'm still feeling an informational void in my life a whole month after I quit using Reddit more or less...
And yet despite being unsuited to it, we get addicted to that firehose of data so easily! I'm still feeling an informational void in my life a whole month after I quit using Reddit more or less entirely. It's the age-old rule: we love the things that are worst for us.
It's the dopamine hit. Reddit, other social platforms, and news services are specifically tailored to exploit human psychology to drive engagement. They're skinner boxes and the addiction to them...
It's the dopamine hit. Reddit, other social platforms, and news services are specifically tailored to exploit human psychology to drive engagement. They're skinner boxes and the addiction to them is not that dissimilar to a narcotic.
To quote Radiohead: "You do it to yourself, you do, and that's what really hurts."
I really hate this meme. Dopamine is constantly being released in response to nearly every stimulus we receive. The narrative that sugar and porn are like cocaine because we see similar patterns...
I really hate this meme. Dopamine is constantly being released in response to nearly every stimulus we receive. The narrative that sugar and porn are like cocaine because we see similar patterns of neurological response is basically a sensationalized rephrasing of "we like cocaine, sugar, and sex", and social media "dopamine" discourse is basically "we like to learn things about the world". They're skinner boxes, in the same way that children like pressing elevator buttons. We have broader social ills that make social media easy, so just like an isolated individual is going to self-medicate their loneliness with drugs, someone without new information will stimulate themselves with cheap data.
Social media is not trafficking some special sauce, our culture just discourages actual curiosity and active learning, people associate those with schooling and therefore immaturity.
Books about social media including Stolen Focus by Johan Hari and The Chaos Machine by Max Fisher disagree with you. They claim that social media are intentionally using the same tools that make...
Books about social media including Stolen Focus by Johan Hari and The Chaos Machine by Max Fisher disagree with you. They claim that social media are intentionally using the same tools that make casino machines addictive and for similar reasons, to drive and increase time spent on platform
Sure. "Dopamine" as an addictive agent is the meme I take issue with, not that there are different degrees of accessibility to information that can incentivize unhealthy habits.
Sure. "Dopamine" as an addictive agent is the meme I take issue with, not that there are different degrees of accessibility to information that can incentivize unhealthy habits.
There are definitely specific things I enjoyed about reddit, or used it for, other than just a dopamine hit. I suppose the end result of anything we enjoy is dopamine, but there are more...
There are definitely specific things I enjoyed about reddit, or used it for, other than just a dopamine hit. I suppose the end result of anything we enjoy is dopamine, but there are more complicated holes that I haven't been able to fill. It's the difference between a slot machine and working on a piece of art that you'd like to sell but may not be able to. Both are a sort of gamble, but one is a longer more intricate process with a more complicated reward structure.
Reddit was good for alerting me to news stories that I end up oblivious of now. The reward for me wasn't just seeing the headline on reddit, or even reading the comments. It was discussing the story later with people I know in real life. Tildes fills that hole with some of the more high-minded or important stories, but there are some off-beat and ridiculous things that don't show up here. The ridiculousness of the story not being the important bit, but the discussion it can spark.
Rulers had spy networks though and I'm reasonably confident that merchants who were wealthy enough did also. Democratising information flow is not necessarily a bad thing, but yes there are real...
Rulers had spy networks though and I'm reasonably confident that merchants who were wealthy enough did also. Democratising information flow is not necessarily a bad thing, but yes there are real challenges.
At the risk of stretching your example past the point you intended to make, I think there's a difference in that a ruler's spy network or a merchant's info network would be providing news that...
At the risk of stretching your example past the point you intended to make, I think there's a difference in that a ruler's spy network or a merchant's info network would be providing news that specifically relates to the interests of the person receiving it. Whereas a lot of modern news doesn't relate to the viewer/reader in a meaningful way.
To stretch it even further, the quite recent change from descriptive headlines to non-specific, mostly emotional words for news is making things so much harder for everyone. News in all its forms...
To stretch it even further, the quite recent change from descriptive headlines to non-specific, mostly emotional words for news is making things so much harder for everyone.
News in all its forms used to be gathered and presented to every reader in a way that exposed everyone to all sorts of ideas and updates they might not ever have known to seek out on their own.
Whereas now, you don't really have any way of learning of what you don't even know exist.
Even when looking for specific info, you're often left grasping for straws due to the absolutely non-descriptive headlines.
Today I read an entire article in my local newspaper about a poisonous, invasive, and quickly spreading plant that both local experts, forestry experts, and relevant government departments are very worried about. Also a whole lot about what they're doing to stop or slow down the spread of this plant. Also a whole lot about their worries for where next this plant might start growing.
The name of the plant?
Not mentioned a single time at any point in the entire article! It was solely referred to as "this/the poisonous plant" throughout!
You know, you're absolutely right! I'm apparently terribly jaded. I only rolled my eyes at the obvious lack of editor quality control and assumed nothing more can be done.
You know, you're absolutely right!
I'm apparently terribly jaded. I only rolled my eyes at the obvious lack of editor quality control and assumed nothing more can be done.
Absolute insanity they didn’t mention the plant. I wonder if that’s intentional, maybe it’s something fairly mundane? A thistle? Regardless, we should probably find some variety of humiliating...
Absolute insanity they didn’t mention the plant. I wonder if that’s intentional, maybe it’s something fairly mundane? A thistle?
Regardless, we should probably find some variety of humiliating punishment for that journalist.
Oh most definitely, this isn't to say that there were people without access to wide swaths of information and various data "in the olden times" (not speaking of any specific dates, just back in...
Oh most definitely, this isn't to say that there were people without access to wide swaths of information and various data "in the olden times" (not speaking of any specific dates, just back in the d-a-y), but your average Joe in the fields didn't have news alerts on a phone telling him of the latest school shooting or climate disaster, or a 24 hour news network, or NPR bumming him out.
Democratising information flow
You know, I hadn't really thought of my initial concept in terms like this, but that's a good way of looking at it. The democratization of information flow is inherently a good thing. We do need to know what's going on in the world, to willfully attempt to deny ourselves this information is an active attempt to ignore actual events that affect us, no matter how large or small.
I guess my initial point is more that while I do feel the need to listen to NPR and read AP news in the morning, it's also very important that I sometimes play some music in the car or play some dumb phone game instead.
Yes and click bait and rage bait content is designed to monopolise our attention and is counter to our best mental health for sure. I just want to find a balance. Edit Terry Pratchett wrote an...
Yes and click bait and rage bait content is designed to monopolise our attention and is counter to our best mental health for sure. I just want to find a balance.
Edit Terry Pratchett wrote an insightful and funny fantasy novel about this, the Truth
Also if you feel bad about your carbon footprint there's https://www.wren.co - which is the most legit carbon offset company I've found. They do a lot of projects, including rock weathering that...
Also if you feel bad about your carbon footprint there's https://www.wren.co - which is the most legit carbon offset company I've found. They do a lot of projects, including rock weathering that locks away CO2 in a crystalline state permanently.
I'd never heard the phrase "fiddling while Rome burns" until last night when I was watching a video about Nero. Now I've seen it used back to back days after never hearing it in my life lol. It...
I'd never heard the phrase "fiddling while Rome burns" until last night when I was watching a video about Nero.
Now I've seen it used back to back days after never hearing it in my life lol. It feels like that phenomenon I've heard of where once you notice a particular car on the road, you'll see the same make/model all day.
I've struggled off and on through my life with perpetual disaster anxiety. Things get stuck in my head. I have to work hard to untangle repetitious thoughts. But I find I'm getting better at accepting my place in the world as I get older and that's helped me have healthier thinking patterns.
It is. They're both examples of the Baader-Meinhoff phenomenon. When you first learn about something, you start registering references to it that you just didn't notice before. They were always...
Now I've seen it used back to back days after never hearing it in my life lol. It feels like that phenomenon I've heard of where once you notice a particular car on the road, you'll see the same make/model all day.
It is. They're both examples of the Baader-Meinhoff phenomenon. When you first learn about something, you start registering references to it that you just didn't notice before. They were always there, but because you didn't know what made it significant, your brain discarded the information.
Also I think there is a strong memetic effect these days. You can learn a term from a YouTube video and then see it everywhere because that video got 3 million views among people similar to you....
Also I think there is a strong memetic effect these days. You can learn a term from a YouTube video and then see it everywhere because that video got 3 million views among people similar to you. And now you're all using the new term on your niche subreddits/forums.
I didn't see whatever video @idiotheart saw. But often when I experience the Baader-Meinhoff phenomenon I recall I learned the term from a large YouTube creator or news site.
The phenomenon to which you are referring is called the frequency illusion or the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frequency_illusion
I was waiting for this comment. We all ought to contribute to a solution as we can. But if one becomes periodically overburdened by the reality of their situation, they should do what they can to...
I was waiting for this comment.
We all ought to contribute to a solution as we can. But if one becomes periodically overburdened by the reality of their situation, they should do what they can to ensure they can survive, first, and resolve the bigger problems later. If this is necessary on a society-wide level to the point it ends us then perhaps the situation was too dire.
If somebody is lost in a forest it would not do them any good to just run around sweating and burning calories. They'll need to eventually establish a base, even for a day, to regain their strength and keep going.
Similarly for collapse alarmists. They need to enjoy what they have as much as they can so they can remember what they're worried will go away and understand what actions can be taken beyond being socially awkward about it at parties. Once you reach a point where you're browsing a doomscrolling subreddit and listening to podcasts about what the end looks like, you become the dude with a sandwich board talking about the end of days at parties.
Gives me Sarah vibes from Joe Pera Talks With You - someone who is hyper-aware and paranoid wrt global environmental/societal collapse... to the point they are still able to function in regular...
Gives me Sarah vibes from Joe Pera Talks With You - someone who is hyper-aware and paranoid wrt global environmental/societal collapse... to the point they are still able to function in regular society but regularly alienate themselves/distance themselves from others with these concerns.
Even if they don't solve these problems, what does worrying about something out of your control even do for you beyond creating a state of anxiety to live in? "How I Learned to Stop Worrying and...
Even if they don't solve these problems, what does worrying about something out of your control even do for you beyond creating a state of anxiety to live in?
"How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb" is poking fun at the (very real) absurdity of nuclear deterrence and strategy, but that's not a problem most people need to concern themselves with on a daily basis and it's been unironically decent advice for the last 60 years.
Your choice is obviously yours to make but I think your reasoning is assuming too much certainty around the level of 'collapse' and also ascribing current cultural norms onto future generations....
For example, all of this has motivated me not to have kids, because I don't want to bring life into this world and foot them with the bill of our current lifestyle, it's not fair to them to have to suffer because the previous generations.
Your choice is obviously yours to make but I think your reasoning is assuming too much certainty around the level of 'collapse' and also ascribing current cultural norms onto future generations.
Even granting the assumption that climate change results in a large reduction in living standards for future generations there is a huge range between today's living standards and something unlivable. Historically people certainly had tougher lives, but I don't think a majority would have wished never to be born.
Well you also can't even win with adoption. Think of all the families that are coerced into giving up their kids because they can't cover some expense.
Well you also can't even win with adoption. Think of all the families that are coerced into giving up their kids because they can't cover some expense.
I think the key here is the failure of wealth to pass to millennials. If were all barely surviving and working multiple jobs to survive, we can't do things as easily. Not to say there isn't a...
I think the key here is the failure of wealth to pass to millennials. If were all barely surviving and working multiple jobs to survive, we can't do things as easily.
Not to say there isn't a problem with apathy and performative crap, but the big one is money and the power it affords.
I mean, no, I'm definitely not comfortable going along with it. I have free time now, I suppose I should look for some collective action movement to volunteer for. I guess your right, without...
I mean, no, I'm definitely not comfortable going along with it. I have free time now, I suppose I should look for some collective action movement to volunteer for. I guess your right, without money or a car i feel absolutely powerless against the maw of capitalism.
Thoughts on what to do until the oncoming powder keg?
Agreed. Also my theory is that promoting the idea that collapse is somehow impossible to mitigate or that we are on an irreversible track towards doom, and that things will only be worse in the...
Agreed. Also my theory is that promoting the idea that collapse is somehow impossible to mitigate or that we are on an irreversible track towards doom, and that things will only be worse in the future, is insanely bad, especially for young people, and it is normalizing an attitude of inaction, zero-sum behavior, and waiting for some Great Policy Change to save the day. It prevents effective social, political, and economic change from really happening because people become convinced they don't have the agency to build a better world.
Solar geoengineering, weather engineering, net-zero carbon cycle, etc are all actionable paths that one can go down to increase probabilities of easing our collective eco-anxiety, and there are people on the frontlines of this.
Beyond technology, there are fundamental economic and demographic problems whose solutions are politically infeasible due to conflicting priorities and incentives. People say that they want...
Beyond technology, there are fundamental economic and demographic problems whose solutions are politically infeasible due to conflicting priorities and incentives. People say that they want climate change tackled — but they also say that airfare and driving are too expensive, food prices are too high, etc.
A sustainable future demands that we consume less, far less. It demands a radically different consumption and production paradigm that people aren't ready for. Billionaires and millionaires consume far, far too much; but so too does the average Western citizen whose carbon footprint is many times that of a non-Western citizen.
The human population has exploded and expectations for living standards have soared. Billions of people around the world see and desire the middle-class Western lifestyle. Their governments won't deny them. They can't.
For me, my collapse awareness is focused on the confluence of economic, social, and psychological factors and the trajectory they together chart.
Be careful where you say that kind of thing; over the past few years, as population growth in developed nations more and more clearly seems to be plateauing, it's become common to deem it deeply...
too many people already for us to sustainably support
Be careful where you say that kind of thing; over the past few years, as population growth in developed nations more and more clearly seems to be plateauing, it's become common to deem it deeply racist and/or xenophobic to suggest that overpopulation will kill us all.
Which is fucking insane, because it doesn't matter where the people will come from; we're all stuck on this same burning rock together.
If I saw any evidence that we were making progress towards those solutions I wouldn't be miserable. In fact, I'm miserable specifically because I see a preponderance of evidence that we're moving...
What if they do solve all those problems, and you spend your entire life being miserable for no reason?
If I saw any evidence that we were making progress towards those solutions I wouldn't be miserable. In fact, I'm miserable specifically because I see a preponderance of evidence that we're moving away from those solutions.
EDIT: Okay...I'm prepared to start being less miserable. I'm expecting nothing, humanity. Don't underwhelm me.
There is actually a lot of work being done as a result of the inflation reduction act to try and ease the energy transition. I don't think it'll be enough but it's a start and any kind of action...
There is actually a lot of work being done as a result of the inflation reduction act to try and ease the energy transition. I don't think it'll be enough but it's a start and any kind of action is better than nothing.
In addition I think that everyone should get more involved in union organizing. I think the future of America and the world could be very bright, but we need to fight for it, and that means being organized. If we want to make the kinds of structural changes necessary we NEED unions to enable that coordination.
I think it's easy to see bad things and get discouraged. Yeah, bad shit is happening. Yeah we are facing our extinction or at least bad bad things. But if we let that happen we just silently let the apocalypse happen... and pardon the cliche but the poem is "do not go gently" after all.
Please add me to the list of folks that figure the author has gone a wee bit too far down the rabbit hole. It’s definitely worth discussing since this is the future of Earth’s biosphere, but that...
Please add me to the list of folks that figure the author has gone a wee bit too far down the rabbit hole. It’s definitely worth discussing since this is the future of Earth’s biosphere, but that topic is best addressed separately and dispassionately from how it affects one’s mental health and outlook.
Personal philosophy: if the future/collapse is inevitable anyways, then there’s no point in worrying about it. Do the best with what you have now so you can leave the world with a clean conscience. It’s all we’ve ever been able to do as a species anyways, it’s just that the stakes are more dire for us than ever before.
I kinda feel like the author should probably meet with a therapist tbh. Someone who's paid to actually sit and listen to their thoughts and feelings. They even mention it in the article that...
I kinda feel like the author should probably meet with a therapist tbh. Someone who's paid to actually sit and listen to their thoughts and feelings. They even mention it in the article that they're the type of person who wants to talk things out.
A lot of us are aware of climate change and want to do things about it but just sitting around and inserting it into every conversation they can kinda makes the author seem kinda insufferable to talk to irl.
Yeah I think the thought that "this is how people should think" is clouding over the minds of people like the author. In a vacuum, if you were to say, "hey, I'm having these fatalistic thoughts...
Yeah I think the thought that "this is how people should think" is clouding over the minds of people like the author. In a vacuum, if you were to say, "hey, I'm having these fatalistic thoughts about the future that's causing depression and a serious degradation of my quality of life", you'd be told to get professional help.
I mean, I can definitely empathize, there's definitely times where I've though "man, life would be so much easier if everything thought the exact same things as I do." But that's not exactly...
I mean, I can definitely empathize, there's definitely times where I've though "man, life would be so much easier if everything thought the exact same things as I do." But that's not exactly healthy behaviour, haha.
Even if it was "dire" from a statistical standpoint, I'd wager that from an individual standpoint life was exactly the same then as any other century or millennium. You wake up, you do your best...
Even if it was "dire" from a statistical standpoint, I'd wager that from an individual standpoint life was exactly the same then as any other century or millennium.
You wake up, you do your best to eat and cooperate and live with the rest of your tribe, you go to sleep, rinse and repeat.
I realize this is somewhat off-topic, but thank you for linking that Wikipedia article on the Toba mass extinction. I never heard of it until now and it is quite interesting!
I realize this is somewhat off-topic, but thank you for linking that Wikipedia article on the Toba mass extinction. I never heard of it until now and it is quite interesting!
Ever since we have had people, we have had an imminent collapse looming before us. I wrote a comment about having kids in the face of calamity not that long ago, and I think it is almost directly...
Ever since we have had people, we have had an imminent collapse looming before us. I wrote a comment about having kids in the face of calamity not that long ago, and I think it is almost directly an answer to this same article, and in the time since I wrote that comment very recently, there have been potentially world changing technologies developed: see the superconductors tag for more information.
The world is not going to end. Society is not going to end. We are not going to be living in a post apocalyptic wasteland. We will live in a society that is different from the one we live in now - hopefully a better one - but that's always the case. Things are different now from when I was young. Things were different when I was young from when my parents were young.
There's a specific point in the article that I would like to call out as incorrect as well:
If we can’t even come together to fight COVID-19, how will we ever come together to fight climate change?
For the most part, across the world, the vast majority of people came together (by staying apart) to fight COVID-19. It was an almost uniquely american response to flout pandemic protocols to own the libs, which is why the death rate in america was so much worse than everywhere else, and it was red states that were the ones that were doing the bulk of that heavy lifting. Many other places did not have the same issues that people experienced in the USA, but it is a spirit breaking experience to be stuck in the US if you are a person with socialist responsibility tendencies. It's understandable to think that the whole world can't come together to do stuff, but lots of other countries weathered things much better because we did collectively work together.
I'm not sure about that. Reminder that a minority of people live in Europe + NZ + Asian tigers. The parts most ravaged by far by covid was South America (and the global south in general)....
For the most part, across the world, the vast majority of people came together (by staying apart) to fight COVID-19.
I'm not sure about that. Reminder that a minority of people live in Europe + NZ + Asian tigers. The parts most ravaged by far by covid was South America (and the global south in general).
Additionally, the whole world basically resolved into the same "solution", if it could be called that by the end, which was the Swedish one, a.k.a the shrugging emoji solution. China was the last holdout, but they're in shrugging emoji mode as well.
US mortality rate was at 1.1%, slightly below Canada, and significantly below Peru and Mexico, which suffered the most, and not that much higher than Italy or Spain.
Florida and California are an interesting case study within America. They obviously had wildly different policies w.r.g to COVID, but ended up with the same mortality rates (despite far more robust pandemic measures) and the same educational setback (despite Florida having in-person schooling much earlier).
Edit: I did not intend this to be a rebuttal or a dismissal of what you said. I just happened to have that tab that you cited already open and was trying to make sense of some things, and mostly...
Edit: I did not intend this to be a rebuttal or a dismissal of what you said. I just happened to have that tab that you cited already open and was trying to make sense of some things, and mostly did not address at all the gist of what you were saying. Conversations how do they work?
I looked at the JHU data earlier, and I found the charts to not be particularly enlightening. Lower down there is this data:
Country
Confirmed
Deaths
Case Fatality
Deaths / 100k
US
103,802,702
1,123,836
1.1%
341.11
Canada
4,617,095
51,720
1.1%
135.23
I feel like if the Case Fatality rate is 1.1%, then the Deaths/100k should be somewhat close to 110 (and the difference will be in how things are reported) but in the US, it's triple. I did some more poking around, and I guess long story short, I don't find much value in the JHU resource, and have been looking more at the WHO resources; these data visualizations seem to present data that at least seems more internally consistent.
What's your problem with it? Almost a third of the US had COVID, whereas just over 10% of Canada had it. It makes sense that the US's mortality rate per 100k population would be just under 3 times...
What's your problem with it? Almost a third of the US had COVID, whereas just over 10% of Canada had it. It makes sense that the US's mortality rate per 100k population would be just under 3 times higher.
I would argue that even in the US, people came together to weather the storm that was Covid. Even if some of those did it by physically interacting in ways that caused them to spread the disease,...
I would argue that even in the US, people came together to weather the storm that was Covid. Even if some of those did it by physically interacting in ways that caused them to spread the disease, even they did come together in support of each other and did their best to chip in when it came to expenses and sometimes funerals.
It might not be a sensible reaction seen from the vantage point of wanting everyone to stay apart, but there is something deeply human about congregating and socially supporting our fellow person in times of need.
For those that ended up severely ill or dying despite isolating themselves, the experience was much more lonely than for those that also suffered, but with support and closeness with their loved ones.
I can't help but understand the underlying human instinct, even as I disagree with the choices that instinct led them to make.
That's a very important point that I glossed right over by attributing something to malice that wasn't necessarily malicious. Not everyone who didn't do the pandemic protocols did so to "get" the...
That's a very important point that I glossed right over by attributing something to malice that wasn't necessarily malicious. Not everyone who didn't do the pandemic protocols did so to "get" the liberals; a lot of us have been taught to get together and check on each other and spend time with each other, especially when sick, so doing so is a very human response. I don't think this is what everyone who didn't stick to the covid regulations was doing - I know people who went out of their way to break guidelines specifically because it would "own the libs" - but a lot of people just wanted to get together for their support networks.
Humans will, for the most part, be "fine". Things will be different but we're not going to see the end of civilization as the author believes. The media has a long history of reporting the...
Humans will, for the most part, be "fine". Things will be different but we're not going to see the end of civilization as the author believes. The media has a long history of reporting the problems, and not the solutions. Not to rehash old material but:
acid rain was expected to cause us all to wear anti-acid-rain suits. It never did, because we fixed it.
California's reservoirs were supposed to never recover. They have recovered.
the hole in the ozone layer would kill us. It's mostly fixed and continuing to improve.
the great ocean garbage patch would never be addressed. People are fixing it.
the deforestation of the world would end us. The world forests are recovering every year.
I could go on and on, but as a species we continue to address the issues. Some places lag further behind but we are generally collectively working towards fixing things.
As a species yes at least a breeding population of us will go on just fine, even enjoying new tech and new solutions and better conveniences etc. But I think that it is also okay to mourn the fact...
As a species yes at least a breeding population of us will go on just fine, even enjoying new tech and new solutions and better conveniences etc.
But I think that it is also okay to mourn the fact that many millions of people in the developing world will have perished in literal doomsday scenarios: their government will collapse, their utility grids will go under, their survival supplies will dwindle and disappear, their land will totally be devastated and not recoverable, civil war, mass migration....
It's more than "okay" to mourne those who have been or will be lost; it is a moral imperative that we do so, in the same way that we remember victims of other atrocities committed by humans. I...
It's more than "okay" to mourne those who have been or will be lost; it is a moral imperative that we do so, in the same way that we remember victims of other atrocities committed by humans.
I would say that feeling that sadness for the people who don't make it is not contrary to my point, so I'm just wondering about the intent behind what you have written, and this is an earnest question: do you see the author of this post as being aligned with what you have said? Do you feel like what I wrote was not in alignment with what you brought up?
I think that's where some misunderstanding might be happening within the conversation; some people who have fatalistic views think that the people who have hope are being flippant, or not thinking of the people who will die, but we do think of and mourne those people. We just do not think that it will be the end of humans, or even a decimation of humans.
I don't mean to be contrarian and I certainly don't even disagree with you, that humans by and large will be fine.....and I don't think you were being overly optimistic or flippant at all. I guess...
I don't mean to be contrarian and I certainly don't even disagree with you, that humans by and large will be fine.....and I don't think you were being overly optimistic or flippant at all.
I guess it's akin to if someone tells us they're depressed, and then we respond with " but look at all the nice things you have". We're so right that they have so much and so many reasons to rejoice.....it just feels very lonely as a result to continue to be depressed even with these good things.
There's a sense of loneliness in feeling emotions that other people don't feel, and if doesn't even have to do with one being right or another wrong.
If I were in love with a new hobby that no one understands, even well intentioned "cool story bro" hurts. Or I got a new tattoo and everyone says wow that's permanent and cost how much money?
So even if the author is totally off his rocker and the species is totally fine, that loneliness of being "wrong" still exists for him.
I appreciate and, I think, understand what you are saying. If I was having a conversation directly with the author, or with someone who seemed like they were emotionally only prepared for "the...
I appreciate and, I think, understand what you are saying. If I was having a conversation directly with the author, or with someone who seemed like they were emotionally only prepared for "the collapse" then I would try to approach the conversation more delicately, and even here, I try to be explicit in my validation of the feelings that people have about these situations. I am trying to not be dismissive, in the way that you've outline in your hypotheticals; I think that the feelings that people have of being overwhelmed are really difficult to work through. However, I think it's also really important to note that those feelings are the result of external factors that aren't necessarily presenting the whole truth, and that we have to struggle against doom mentality, because it's often just one of the masks that depression wears. Giving into that mentality is often detrimental to overcoming the issues that we collectively face. Doomerism leads to things like cataclysm prepping, stocking up on guns and ammo, nihilistic consumerism, and more; if things were hopeless, then acting on the small hopes we have are would not be rational.
We've survived an ice age, I just hope we as a species can weather another storm. And I think we can, but it sure would be nice if the world collectively came together to prevent a mass die-off.
We've survived an ice age, I just hope we as a species can weather another storm. And I think we can, but it sure would be nice if the world collectively came together to prevent a mass die-off.
Isn't it a little derivative to quote George Carlin, a comedian, on this issue? Not to belittle the vast research I'm sure he did on the subject, but every post discussing climate change has this...
Isn't it a little derivative to quote George Carlin, a comedian, on this issue? Not to belittle the vast research I'm sure he did on the subject, but every post discussing climate change has this exact quote posted.
Humans, and civilization have survived many "ends of civilization" as we know it. Sometimes we need to put the phone/computer down and go outside. We've made really good progress against climate change and we continue to do so. We shouldn't give in and say it's hopeless we can do amazing things working together.
If you find yourself feeling this way, bear in mind that this is a mindset that has persisted throughout history. That everything is doomed and bound to get worse, and the halcyon days of the...
If you find yourself feeling this way, bear in mind that this is a mindset that has persisted throughout history. That everything is doomed and bound to get worse, and the halcyon days of the world are past.
The Greeks and Romans had it baked into their religion that the golden age of the world happened long before then, and had already ended. Hinduism says that the world eventually ends when Kalki comes to herald that the world has degraded too much. Malthusians were convinced population growth of the poors would lead to mass starvation.
Point being, it's natural to feel despair that the world will never be as good as it seemed when you were 5.
That doesn't mean you're wrong to be upset or concerned, it's just a bit of perspective that this is a feeling people are prone to happen even when historically it turned out that things were pretty well set.
Vlogbrothers has a term for the psychological place this person is in: the Sad Gap. [4-minute video] You enter the Sad Gap when you become aware of the numerous, terrifying, extremely difficult...
Vlogbrothers has a term for the psychological place this person is in: the Sad Gap. [4-minute video]
You enter the Sad Gap when you become aware of the numerous, terrifying, extremely difficult problems our future will face. These problems are fairly easy to describe, and it's not difficult to make money/influence doing so, so people do it a lot. It's more difficult to gain followers describing solutions that are still in the design phase and have not yet been proven to work.
The best way to get out of the Sad Gap is to actually engage with these problems. Pick one and dive deep on it. Become an expert. On a deeper-than-surface level, where did this problem come from and what specifically is going to happen? How do the various pieces of the problem affect each other? How confident are we in the various possibilities that have been forecasted? Who is working on this, and what potential remedies have been put forth? What projects are underway to address this issue? How can you use or develop skills that will contribute?
And don't just learn, participate. Go to meetings. Volunteer. Meet people who're as passionate about this as you are. Once you're working to solve the problem you've chosen, it gets a lot easier to trust that other people are working on the other problems.
I respect Vlogbrothers because they follow their own advice on this. They picked maternal mortality in Sierra Leone, and they're helping to build a hospital there. This is not a one-off project; it's an open-ended commitment. They also built a bunch of YouTube channels to help people understand the world at a more-than-superficial level. They know what they're talking about here because they speak from experience.
The problems we face are enormous. Maybe we'll make it; maybe not. But working to fix these problems isn't just better for everyone else; it's better for you.
A couple of years ago, someone very close to me joined an apocalypse cult. I can tell you from personal observation that being in an apocalypse cult makes you highly susceptible to manipulation from people who like power, because nothing matters as much as The Cause. My friend eventually left the cult after the cult leader psychologically broke her. She's still recovering.
So don't ignore the problem, but maintain perspective. Learn whatever you can from trustworthy sources, help however you can, and maintain your mental health. It's better for you and better for everyone else.
Thanks for this. See also the work of Jimmy Carter and the Carter center in nearly eradicating Guinea Worm. A truly impressive large scale effort that required time, effort, money, imagination,...
Thanks for this. See also the work of Jimmy Carter and the Carter center in nearly eradicating Guinea Worm. A truly impressive large scale effort that required time, effort, money, imagination, research to accomplish.
I feel great empathy for so many in this thread. There's much discounting, many feelings, and so many assumptions about what people are sure they know. And yet so little actual understanding about...
I feel great empathy for so many in this thread. There's much discounting, many feelings, and so many assumptions about what people are sure they know. And yet so little actual understanding about where things stand globally and environmentally.
I would ask those here right now to make a note to look back on this thread in, say, 3-5 years time and see if you feel similarly to how you do currently. We are on the downhill slope at the moment but so many can't recognize it (and also won't recognize it) and I only hope they truly understand what a terrible spot we're in during the coming years so it isn't so much of shock when their quality of life declines considerably in the future.
I am probably one of the people that you say are discounting and not recognizing things. I think that people like the author who are prepared for societal collapse think that they're the only ones...
I am probably one of the people that you say are discounting and not recognizing things. I think that people like the author who are prepared for societal collapse think that they're the only ones who are taking things seriously, so let me say a few unambiguous things.
Climate change is the biggest problem we are facing currently as a species
It might actually be the biggest challenge we have ever or will ever face
There are so many problems that lead to climate change that it feels overwhelming
There are intrinsic problems to how our society functions that seem to lead inexorably towards climate disaster
Despite all this, I believe that we are going to tackle the issues. I don't believe that we are going to return to pre-industrial climate levels - the ship has sailed on that - but I think that we will find technical ways to survive, progress, and thrive as a species. I don't think that this belief - this hope - means that we're in denial, or that we're not recognizing the tough climate spot that we are in. Rather, it is an acknowledgment of the fact that as a group, we tend to eventually fix the problems that we are facing often using science and engineering.
So I recognize how you are feeling and I think it is a valid way to feel, but I would ask that you also recognize how other people feel and remember that it is also valid.
Thank you. I find it alarming that we have widespread ecological collapse. We have extreme weather events happening so frequently they're becoming accepted as normal. I've already lived through...
Thank you. I find it alarming that we have widespread ecological collapse. We have extreme weather events happening so frequently they're becoming accepted as normal. I've already lived through two events that were classified as 1 in 500 year events and never want to do it again. I've seen first hand that we are seriously under prepared to deal with these events and the aftermath. I never thought I'd see the day where I was unable to get my daily medication or emergency services were unavailable for over 24 hours.
I think it's important for people to discuss these feelings because they're valid. It's never good to minimize what we feel. I personally would feel less anxious about the state of the world if I saw more action and acknowledgment that we need change from people and companies in positions to affect large scale solutions. Somehow it feels worse to be told that it's not that bad because summer is supposed to be hot, there's nothing wrong with a little flooding rain, or ocean temperatures reaching 100° is no big deal.
You're on! Setting a reminder for August 1, 2028. I invite you to do the same. Would you be interested in making any concrete predictions? I expect things will change between now and then. I don't...
You're on! Setting a reminder for August 1, 2028. I invite you to do the same.
Would you be interested in making any concrete predictions? I expect things will change between now and then. I don't expect you to get anything exactly right—predicting the future is hard—but it would be enlightening to see if things change faster, slower, or in the opposite direction from what you expect.
Fun! Reminders set. 3 years is a very short time ecologically so probably nothing crazy has happened yet and no solid movement on climate change solutions either. Predictions will be very boring....
Fun! Reminders set.
3 years is a very short time ecologically so probably nothing crazy has happened yet and no solid movement on climate change solutions either. Predictions will be very boring.
Prediction: more forest fires, it's just a thing now every summer and there's a air quality indicators when you look at weather forecast, like pollen and chance of rain. Respirators make a come back for seasonal wear. Definition of "summer" also expands.
At least one very popular and enigmatic species gone totally extinct in the wild. I hope they saved brain scans, terabytes of behaviour videos, and genetic samples.
Prices of food continuing to increase, ditto houses prices. Boring same same.
More people leaving the unaffordable city heat domes for semi rural or rural places with the help of work from home. Not a major wave but just a slow change, kind of like how homeschooling went from crazy fringe to noted minority between 90s to now.
Cities won't ever empty though because Canada keeps luring new immigrants to support their Ponzi scheme: new people will come to cities and leave for smaller cities or go home after losing a bunch of money. Kids are also having to find work in the cities, so cities are still kept afloat despite living conditions deteriorating.
Canadian politics, the conservatives have a least one extremely humiliating scandal involving some kind of sex thing. Evangelicals in crisis. Boring same same. Liberals continue to have financial scandals. NDPs continue to not get enough votes to form government.
In America, Biden is re-elected by a terrifyingly narrow margin, some riots, some jail but nothing major. Biden steps down after some kind of health thing or other, at least that's the public story, and his VP takes over running America.
I don't make concrete predictions because there is so much changing on such a large scale and so quickly that it is impossible to do properly...but the trends become obvious as you go regardless....
I don't make concrete predictions because there is so much changing on such a large scale and so quickly that it is impossible to do properly...but the trends become obvious as you go regardless. But I will look forward to August 2028 to revisit what we have discussed here and see where we are at.
Thank you. I was afraid to comment since, apparently, I'm one of the few that kinda feels this way. I'm not all in on the doom and gloom, but I'm concerned for the world my nieces and nephews, and...
Thank you. I was afraid to comment since, apparently, I'm one of the few that kinda feels this way. I'm not all in on the doom and gloom, but I'm concerned for the world my nieces and nephews, and their kids, will deal with when I'm gone. I understand I'll be gone, but I still care.
I also have nieces and nephews and struggle internally when I think of what they may have to deal with in their adult lives. I want to help them, to prepare them and yet there is only so much I...
I also have nieces and nephews and struggle internally when I think of what they may have to deal with in their adult lives. I want to help them, to prepare them and yet there is only so much I can do at this point unfortunately.
The thing that’s discounted by many commenters is the scale of it. There’s more people, more consumption, more weapons and we’re finding that elements of our environment have limits while those...
The thing that’s discounted by many commenters is the scale of it. There’s more people, more consumption, more weapons and we’re finding that elements of our environment have limits while those numbers are getting bigger. Maybe technology or societal changes will prevent disaster, but it won’t be because people didn’t worry about it.
I think discussions around doomsday scenarios suffer from a type of unjustified inductive inference: we're so accustomed to regularity that we're unable to imagine unfamiliar catastrophes. Try to...
I think discussions around doomsday scenarios suffer from a type of unjustified inductive inference: we're so accustomed to regularity that we're unable to imagine unfamiliar catastrophes.
Try to remember late 2019 and early 2020, when whispers of a novel respiratory virus circulating in China began to spread. Although intellectually we all realized that the possibility of a pandemic existed back in late 2019, few people actually took measures against it. I remember being on a plane to San Diego, visiting friends, when I received an email from my school that classes would be canceled for "a few weeks". I texted a friend that things were probably going to get real weird soon. But I continued my vacation as planned, if perhaps a bit more diligent with my hand washing than usual. A week later, I attended a musical; the next day, the theater shuttered for the subsequent year and a half. The reality of the situation finally set in, and so I quarantined until I was able to get vaccinated nearly a year later.
This is how I imagine climate catastrophe will occur. Everything will seem fine until it clearly isn't. Assuming civilization will rebuild based on past history is a fallacy: of course civilization has survived until now. How could we be having this discussion otherwise? That doesn't guarantee civilization's future.
On the thread re the death of the hiker in Death Valley, someone commented that Europeans are somewhat more likely to ignore warnings about the dangers of hiking because they are not only...
On the thread re the death of the hiker in Death Valley, someone commented that Europeans are somewhat more likely to ignore warnings about the dangers of hiking because they are not only unfamiliar with the extreme heat, they are more importantly profoundly unfamiliar with the remoteness and isolation of the wilderness in the US and the risks related to not being able to access help in a timely way.
We are unfamiliar with what climate catastrophe would look like, and most people judge risk based on a mix of facts and gut/intuition/experience.
I remember being in my office with my colleagues when I read the breaking news. I immediately foresaw the events that eventually came to pass. One of the moral tales told me as a child was a...
I remember being in my office with my colleagues when I read the breaking news. I immediately foresaw the events that eventually came to pass.
One of the moral tales told me as a child was a variant of the wheat and chessboard problem (but with rice). It's a tale of a subject who asks his king to give him 1 grain of rice on the first chessboard square; 2 on the second; 4 on the third; and so on. The king thought his subject was foolish and agreed. But then it turned out that fulfilling the request would take more rice than the kingdom had. It was an early lesson in the power of arithmetic progression.
I remember colleagues, friends, government officials saying, "well, we don't have to take action yet because this is a problem localized in China, and we here in Europe/US have advanced healthcare." Then it was, "well, let's not overreact, there's only a few cases in Italy. It's not a big deal." I thought they were shortsighted just like that king.
FWIW, California’s two biggest reservoirs are all but full after reaching perilously low levels late last year. Not sure how long it will last, but it is a bit of good news. Sometimes we get lucky.
California grows a lot of food. What happens when there’s not enough water for the crops?
Yes. Last years exceptional quantities of snow changed a lot for this year and next, including recreating Tulare Lake. https://abc30.com/tulare-lake-farmland-impacts-fresh-water-kings-county/12993348/
That's good, but with weather patterns becoming increasingly unreliable and extreme, it still doesn't bode well for the future. If California constantly seesaws between drought and flooding,...
That's good, but with weather patterns becoming increasingly unreliable and extreme, it still doesn't bode well for the future. If California constantly seesaws between drought and flooding, they'll have to deal with the degrading effects of both.
This is also a good example of how our brains (and media) focus on imminent threats and use them to build a self-reinforcing doom & gloom loop. We can clearly understand that the reservoirs being...
This is also a good example of how our brains (and media) focus on imminent threats and use them to build a self-reinforcing doom & gloom loop. We can clearly understand that the reservoirs being empty would be bad, and so our brain makes the sad chemicals come out, but we don't seem to have an equivalent "oh that bad thing didn't happen so let's be happy now" effect. If anything, it seems like we're conditioned to go into Eeyore mode to find the unsilver lining on the good news. You gotta learn to take those Ws when you can.
See also: Murder hornets, acid rain, ozone hole, our imminent nuclear destruction during the cold war, or the Dark Planet Nibiru intersecting the Earth in orbit which somehow won't be a problem if you buy this bunker.
If there's anything that /r/collapse (and similar subreddits like /r/unitedkingdom (they're very pessimistic there), /r/antiwork and /r/workreform) made me realize, it's that we are fucked as a...
If there's anything that /r/collapse (and similar subreddits like /r/unitedkingdom (they're very pessimistic there), /r/antiwork and /r/workreform) made me realize, it's that we are fucked as a human species. We will do nothing to curb our inevitable downfall until we are so far up shit creek without a paddle that we may as well dig our own graves.
Spain and Italy suffer blistering heatwaves. Texas goes through a freak blizzard that knocks out their whole grid infrastructure. The Caribbean suffers through numerous category 4 and 5 hurricanes that have the potential to devastate entire cities, like we saw with Katrina, Irma and Ida. Deaths from extreme heat in America's and Europe's hottest places are going up exponentially. Yet we would rather stick our fingers in our ears and sing "LALALALALALA" to the news that our carbon emissions are literally killing our future on the planet. Oh, and did I mention that the methane we are potentially going to release into the atmosphere from thawing Arctic and Siberian permafrost may accelerate climate change to the point where the worst predictions of sea levels rising whole metres and displacing billions may happen decades sooner?
Our world is ltierally controlled by petrostates that would rather keep big oil running for shorter term profits than save our species. For the Saudis it's going to doom them but the Russians want our glaciers to melt because it means for once that Siberia will be inhabitable and St Petersberg will be usable as a port year-round.
We are also in our worst economic state where nobody in the Western world can afford to even rent a house, let alone buy one. Yet people will still simp for corporations and billionaires that insist that giving workers anything other than a pittance would collapse the economy - whilst corporate fat-cats reap record-breaking profits.
More people aren't having kids because they don't want to raise children in a world as crap as this.
While I think it's good to be aware of the state of the world -- each person needs to balance that with their mental health capacity for such information and focus. As someone with depression and...
While I think it's good to be aware of the state of the world -- each person needs to balance that with their mental health capacity for such information and focus. As someone with depression and anxiety, doom scrolling would not be good for my mental health and it would paralyze me with inaction rather than motivate me to action. Similar to how counselors must prioritize their own mental health and their ability to help others without burning out, I will not be useful if I sit all day in a room rocking back and forth about how bad the world is.
I am more useful focusing on what is in my sphere of influence. In my case I work for an organization that provides funding to local community projects across my country where the projects focus on one or more of the United Nations' 17 Sustainable Development Goals. Each project is community led by the people it impacts and empowers communities to make a difference.
(EDIT to add: I shared this specific example as I think it's good for people to know about the 17 SDGs, but also perhaps, for those of you who can, to consider if switching jobs/organizations could lead to you spending your working hours each week supporting solutions in one capacity or another. Working in a personally-meaningful job with people who are engaged and hopeful about making a better world has been a boon to my mental health as well.)
While it's important to not put one's head in the sand it goes both ways -- we should also research about the good that is being done in the world too and the myriad of ways people are working on solutions. Rather than focus on fear-based media, how about focusing on content that that motivates you with hope for the future instead? (Once again, I'm not advocating not learning about the issues -- but rather for every 1 doom and gloom article, maybe read 5 ones about people working on solutions to that problem.)
Wow, that's quite the doom and gloom article on par with the crazy guy on the corner yelling about the end of the world. I doubt it will be that quick, which is bad. It would be a good thing if it...
Wow, that's quite the doom and gloom article on par with the crazy guy on the corner yelling about the end of the world.
I doubt it will be that quick, which is bad. It would be a good thing if it came on that quickly. If it were quick, we have a history of pulling crazy solutions out of nowhere when backed into a corner. Mainly because people are far more willing to make sacrifices when stressed. However, if it's too slow it won't register enough to spur people to do more than write articles and believe politicians that claim they want to change things and yet don't use their connections to do more than make wild claims, point fingers and tax poor people for not being able to afford electric cars.
I'm not saying a quick collapse is impossible, it's actually rather depressing how people don't realize our safe little bubble could pop, falsely believing we're too great to fall so far. It would just take a lot to do it at this time, but over time it could easily wear thin and we are on that path.
Say I'm not afraid to look like a crazy doomsday preper and I think things will be really bad in the next 10-15 years. What do I actually start doing? I'm not rich, but not exactly poor either. I...
Say I'm not afraid to look like a crazy doomsday preper and I think things will be really bad in the next 10-15 years. What do I actually start doing?
I'm not rich, but not exactly poor either. I have the resources to begin making preparations but where do I even start? Learn to farm my own food? Stockpile food and medicine? Buy a gun? Move my family somewhere more isolated and begin fortifying my home against the eventual looters and raiders?
I live in northern Alberta which already swings wildly between mid 30s in the summer and -50 in the winter, but it's probably one of the better locations in the world in terms of temperature and access to fresh water. At least till the states stats running dry and come after it.
My two cents, build community, forge strong connections with neighbors, learn survival skills but don't obsess. People who isolate themselves in the middle of nowhere risk being randomly overrun...
My two cents, build community, forge strong connections with neighbors, learn survival skills but don't obsess.
People who isolate themselves in the middle of nowhere risk being randomly overrun in the event of collapse.
Jack Whyte's Camulod Chronicles are interesting historical fantasy about the fall of the Roman Empire in Great Britain that might give you some ideas, but I would take it as food for thought, spark for creativity, not a recipe book.
Alas Babylon is another good survival after disaster book
Your question might make a good talk discussion thread as we have a lot of thoughtful people here.
Yup community is how humans have always survived come what may. You don't wang to be lone guns vs many guns, you want to be part of the rotating community with lots of guns. Learn a cool community...
Yup community is how humans have always survived come what may. You don't wang to be lone guns vs many guns, you want to be part of the rotating community with lots of guns.
Learn a cool community like making alcohol or bee keeping. Self sufficiency doesn't mean jack of all trades it means having something to trade and people to trade with.
I'd say things will get really bad in the next 30 years. If you thought the equator was uninhabitable now, imagine how bad it will be in a few decades when temperatures really start rising. We are...
I'd say things will get really bad in the next 30 years.
If you thought the equator was uninhabitable now, imagine how bad it will be in a few decades when temperatures really start rising. We are going to see hundreds of millions, if not billions of economic migrants flocking north.
The good news is that it won't impact Canada that badly. Your country is quite cold and I can see global warming making the northern part of your country far more inhabitable. It could poise Canada to become one of the main superpowers in a hundred years time.
If you do reach close to doomsday scenario (let's say world close to a thermonuclear war), I'd recommend buying some hydroponics, learning how to grow crops indoors, and keeping a stockpile of long-shelf-life food that can last you for months. If your house has a basement, that can serve as an adequate nuclear bunker.
Dunno about gun laws in Canada, but if you can get a gun permit in Alberta, get a firearm. Live rounds are a good deterrent for home invaders.
Speaking as a Canadian I have no illusions about Canada being any sort of power in 100 years. We ARE America's doomsday bunker and our resources are their MREs. they'll be up here so fast our...
Speaking as a Canadian I have no illusions about Canada being any sort of power in 100 years. We ARE America's doomsday bunker and our resources are their MREs. they'll be up here so fast our glaciers wouldn't have time to melt yet. Best individual Canadians can hope for is being merged into the greater melting pot as Americans flock in, sell parcels of our (for now) useless and frigid land to early migrants and build up a bit of capital.
As long as capitalism is here to stay, having some land and some capital is better than having a cellar full of beans or guns.
I don’t know how I feel about that statement. We’re seeing boreal forests burn more than ever before, and their only hope for replacement in a new future is to be replaced by temperate tree...
The good news is that it won’t impact Canada that badly
I don’t know how I feel about that statement. We’re seeing boreal forests burn more than ever before, and their only hope for replacement in a new future is to be replaced by temperate tree migrations north (data from Canada itself).
Replacements of existing homes affected by wildfires are taking at least 3 years due to labor and resource shortages (hopefully there’s no new fires within 3 years!).
I imagine the confluence of these two scenarios is an uber-wilderness survival scenario where there’s no immediate resources and you’re forced to wander northwards in an increasingly volatile climate.
It’s certainly going to fare better than the Global South and Equatorial regions, but the consensus on climate change seems best encapsulated by a phrase I saw recently: no place is safe, only moments in time.
Worrying is different from being aware and subsequently taking steps to mitigate the worst of the looming disaster though. You cant control MAD, but it still made sense at the time to practice...
Worrying is different from being aware and subsequently taking steps to mitigate the worst of the looming disaster though.
You cant control MAD, but it still made sense at the time to practice duck and cover or stock that pantry or bunker.
He definitely "spends too much time on those subreddits."
Being concerned is one thing. Making this concern a part of your identity is another, especially for somehing as nebulous as societal collapse. There is nothing wrong with turning away from a topic so you can keep it together and handle information related to it in a healthy way, especially when it is something you can't fix alone. This person should have done that years ago.
Lately, I've been trying to focus more on the "micro" compared to the "macro." I can't save the world by myself, but I can make my immediate world better for myself and those around me. I can't solve climate change, but I can pick up litter when I go for walks. I can be kind to my neighbors. I can support local businesses. And hopefully, like a pebble cast into a pond, my actions ripple out and positively affect others.
This isn't at all to say that we should stick our heads in the sand either or ignore politics and other bad news. Be aware, but also actively understand what you can and cannot control.
What you're describing is how I've been trying to operate for a few years now, and it's been a big boon for my mental health. Not to fall into a cliche, but we humans didn't evolve to handle an evironment with fast access to news from all over the world, particularly news tailor written to exploit that psychology.
Like you I try to make my immediate surroundings a little nicer in the small ways I can. Even if the external effect is minimal, it has a strong effect on me internally. If more people did that, the world could be an appreciably nicer place.
I think about this idea every now and again, it's absolutely correct. I read somewhere that the information we intake every day, hell every hour, is more news and information than your average farmer from the 1800s would have in their entire life time. To have the ability to be aware of practically everything going on around the world is a level of collective omniscience that we suddenly have to cope with, and put simply, that's a tricky thing.
And yet despite being unsuited to it, we get addicted to that firehose of data so easily! I'm still feeling an informational void in my life a whole month after I quit using Reddit more or less entirely. It's the age-old rule: we love the things that are worst for us.
It's the dopamine hit. Reddit, other social platforms, and news services are specifically tailored to exploit human psychology to drive engagement. They're skinner boxes and the addiction to them is not that dissimilar to a narcotic.
To quote Radiohead: "You do it to yourself, you do, and that's what really hurts."
I really hate this meme. Dopamine is constantly being released in response to nearly every stimulus we receive. The narrative that sugar and porn are like cocaine because we see similar patterns of neurological response is basically a sensationalized rephrasing of "we like cocaine, sugar, and sex", and social media "dopamine" discourse is basically "we like to learn things about the world". They're skinner boxes, in the same way that children like pressing elevator buttons. We have broader social ills that make social media easy, so just like an isolated individual is going to self-medicate their loneliness with drugs, someone without new information will stimulate themselves with cheap data.
Social media is not trafficking some special sauce, our culture just discourages actual curiosity and active learning, people associate those with schooling and therefore immaturity.
Books about social media including Stolen Focus by Johan Hari and The Chaos Machine by Max Fisher disagree with you. They claim that social media are intentionally using the same tools that make casino machines addictive and for similar reasons, to drive and increase time spent on platform
Sure. "Dopamine" as an addictive agent is the meme I take issue with, not that there are different degrees of accessibility to information that can incentivize unhealthy habits.
There are definitely specific things I enjoyed about reddit, or used it for, other than just a dopamine hit. I suppose the end result of anything we enjoy is dopamine, but there are more complicated holes that I haven't been able to fill. It's the difference between a slot machine and working on a piece of art that you'd like to sell but may not be able to. Both are a sort of gamble, but one is a longer more intricate process with a more complicated reward structure.
Reddit was good for alerting me to news stories that I end up oblivious of now. The reward for me wasn't just seeing the headline on reddit, or even reading the comments. It was discussing the story later with people I know in real life. Tildes fills that hole with some of the more high-minded or important stories, but there are some off-beat and ridiculous things that don't show up here. The ridiculousness of the story not being the important bit, but the discussion it can spark.
There's definitely a place here on tildes for more ridiculous stories that can spark discussion. Someone just has to post them.
Rulers had spy networks though and I'm reasonably confident that merchants who were wealthy enough did also. Democratising information flow is not necessarily a bad thing, but yes there are real challenges.
At the risk of stretching your example past the point you intended to make, I think there's a difference in that a ruler's spy network or a merchant's info network would be providing news that specifically relates to the interests of the person receiving it. Whereas a lot of modern news doesn't relate to the viewer/reader in a meaningful way.
To stretch it even further, the quite recent change from descriptive headlines to non-specific, mostly emotional words for news is making things so much harder for everyone.
News in all its forms used to be gathered and presented to every reader in a way that exposed everyone to all sorts of ideas and updates they might not ever have known to seek out on their own.
Whereas now, you don't really have any way of learning of what you don't even know exist.
Even when looking for specific info, you're often left grasping for straws due to the absolutely non-descriptive headlines.
Today I read an entire article in my local newspaper about a poisonous, invasive, and quickly spreading plant that both local experts, forestry experts, and relevant government departments are very worried about. Also a whole lot about what they're doing to stop or slow down the spread of this plant. Also a whole lot about their worries for where next this plant might start growing.
The name of the plant?
Not mentioned a single time at any point in the entire article! It was solely referred to as "this/the poisonous plant" throughout!
So who knows what the worry is actually about.
I would contact the editor about that. It's bad journalism and defeats the purpose of the article.
You know, you're absolutely right!
I'm apparently terribly jaded. I only rolled my eyes at the obvious lack of editor quality control and assumed nothing more can be done.
Absolute insanity they didn’t mention the plant. I wonder if that’s intentional, maybe it’s something fairly mundane? A thistle?
Regardless, we should probably find some variety of humiliating punishment for that journalist.
Oh most definitely, this isn't to say that there were people without access to wide swaths of information and various data "in the olden times" (not speaking of any specific dates, just back in the d-a-y), but your average Joe in the fields didn't have news alerts on a phone telling him of the latest school shooting or climate disaster, or a 24 hour news network, or NPR bumming him out.
You know, I hadn't really thought of my initial concept in terms like this, but that's a good way of looking at it. The democratization of information flow is inherently a good thing. We do need to know what's going on in the world, to willfully attempt to deny ourselves this information is an active attempt to ignore actual events that affect us, no matter how large or small.
I guess my initial point is more that while I do feel the need to listen to NPR and read AP news in the morning, it's also very important that I sometimes play some music in the car or play some dumb phone game instead.
Yes and click bait and rage bait content is designed to monopolise our attention and is counter to our best mental health for sure. I just want to find a balance.
Edit Terry Pratchett wrote an insightful and funny fantasy novel about this, the Truth
Same here, and thank goodness for this little corner of the Internet for being that balance in my life!
Also if you feel bad about your carbon footprint there's https://www.wren.co - which is the most legit carbon offset company I've found. They do a lot of projects, including rock weathering that locks away CO2 in a crystalline state permanently.
You can in fact find something between "fiddling while Rome burns" and perpetual disaster anxiety.
I'd never heard the phrase "fiddling while Rome burns" until last night when I was watching a video about Nero.
Now I've seen it used back to back days after never hearing it in my life lol. It feels like that phenomenon I've heard of where once you notice a particular car on the road, you'll see the same make/model all day.
I've struggled off and on through my life with perpetual disaster anxiety. Things get stuck in my head. I have to work hard to untangle repetitious thoughts. But I find I'm getting better at accepting my place in the world as I get older and that's helped me have healthier thinking patterns.
It is. They're both examples of the Baader-Meinhoff phenomenon. When you first learn about something, you start registering references to it that you just didn't notice before. They were always there, but because you didn't know what made it significant, your brain discarded the information.
Also I think there is a strong memetic effect these days. You can learn a term from a YouTube video and then see it everywhere because that video got 3 million views among people similar to you. And now you're all using the new term on your niche subreddits/forums.
I didn't see whatever video @idiotheart saw. But often when I experience the Baader-Meinhoff phenomenon I recall I learned the term from a large YouTube creator or news site.
Love it. Thanks for giving me its name!
The phenomenon to which you are referring is called the frequency illusion or the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frequency_illusion
I was waiting for this comment.
We all ought to contribute to a solution as we can. But if one becomes periodically overburdened by the reality of their situation, they should do what they can to ensure they can survive, first, and resolve the bigger problems later. If this is necessary on a society-wide level to the point it ends us then perhaps the situation was too dire.
If somebody is lost in a forest it would not do them any good to just run around sweating and burning calories. They'll need to eventually establish a base, even for a day, to regain their strength and keep going.
Similarly for collapse alarmists. They need to enjoy what they have as much as they can so they can remember what they're worried will go away and understand what actions can be taken beyond being socially awkward about it at parties. Once you reach a point where you're browsing a doomscrolling subreddit and listening to podcasts about what the end looks like, you become the dude with a sandwich board talking about the end of days at parties.
Gives me Sarah vibes from Joe Pera Talks With You - someone who is hyper-aware and paranoid wrt global environmental/societal collapse... to the point they are still able to function in regular society but regularly alienate themselves/distance themselves from others with these concerns.
What if they do solve all those problems, and you spend your entire life being miserable for no reason?
Even if they don't solve these problems, what does worrying about something out of your control even do for you beyond creating a state of anxiety to live in?
"How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb" is poking fun at the (very real) absurdity of nuclear deterrence and strategy, but that's not a problem most people need to concern themselves with on a daily basis and it's been unironically decent advice for the last 60 years.
Your choice is obviously yours to make but I think your reasoning is assuming too much certainty around the level of 'collapse' and also ascribing current cultural norms onto future generations.
Even granting the assumption that climate change results in a large reduction in living standards for future generations there is a huge range between today's living standards and something unlivable. Historically people certainly had tougher lives, but I don't think a majority would have wished never to be born.
Well you also can't even win with adoption. Think of all the families that are coerced into giving up their kids because they can't cover some expense.
Why do you say millenials have been inactive?
I think the key here is the failure of wealth to pass to millennials. If were all barely surviving and working multiple jobs to survive, we can't do things as easily.
Not to say there isn't a problem with apathy and performative crap, but the big one is money and the power it affords.
I mean, no, I'm definitely not comfortable going along with it. I have free time now, I suppose I should look for some collective action movement to volunteer for. I guess your right, without money or a car i feel absolutely powerless against the maw of capitalism.
Thoughts on what to do until the oncoming powder keg?
Agreed. Also my theory is that promoting the idea that collapse is somehow impossible to mitigate or that we are on an irreversible track towards doom, and that things will only be worse in the future, is insanely bad, especially for young people, and it is normalizing an attitude of inaction, zero-sum behavior, and waiting for some Great Policy Change to save the day. It prevents effective social, political, and economic change from really happening because people become convinced they don't have the agency to build a better world.
Solar geoengineering, weather engineering, net-zero carbon cycle, etc are all actionable paths that one can go down to increase probabilities of easing our collective eco-anxiety, and there are people on the frontlines of this.
Beyond technology, there are fundamental economic and demographic problems whose solutions are politically infeasible due to conflicting priorities and incentives. People say that they want climate change tackled — but they also say that airfare and driving are too expensive, food prices are too high, etc.
A sustainable future demands that we consume less, far less. It demands a radically different consumption and production paradigm that people aren't ready for. Billionaires and millionaires consume far, far too much; but so too does the average Western citizen whose carbon footprint is many times that of a non-Western citizen.
The human population has exploded and expectations for living standards have soared. Billions of people around the world see and desire the middle-class Western lifestyle. Their governments won't deny them. They can't.
For me, my collapse awareness is focused on the confluence of economic, social, and psychological factors and the trajectory they together chart.
Be careful where you say that kind of thing; over the past few years, as population growth in developed nations more and more clearly seems to be plateauing, it's become common to deem it deeply racist and/or xenophobic to suggest that overpopulation will kill us all.
Which is fucking insane, because it doesn't matter where the people will come from; we're all stuck on this same burning rock together.
Yes, these problems urgently need people to work on them. I wrote a more in-depth comment here; it took longer, so it's further down.
If I saw any evidence that we were making progress towards those solutions I wouldn't be miserable. In fact, I'm miserable specifically because I see a preponderance of evidence that we're moving away from those solutions.
EDIT: Okay...I'm prepared to start being less miserable. I'm expecting nothing, humanity. Don't underwhelm me.
https://nitter.net/Andercot/status/1685088625187495936
There is actually a lot of work being done as a result of the inflation reduction act to try and ease the energy transition. I don't think it'll be enough but it's a start and any kind of action is better than nothing.
In addition I think that everyone should get more involved in union organizing. I think the future of America and the world could be very bright, but we need to fight for it, and that means being organized. If we want to make the kinds of structural changes necessary we NEED unions to enable that coordination.
I think it's easy to see bad things and get discouraged. Yeah, bad shit is happening. Yeah we are facing our extinction or at least bad bad things. But if we let that happen we just silently let the apocalypse happen... and pardon the cliche but the poem is "do not go gently" after all.
Worrying is like praying for the wrong thing to happen. I can't with these people who are so paralyzed by their own minds.
Please add me to the list of folks that figure the author has gone a wee bit too far down the rabbit hole. It’s definitely worth discussing since this is the future of Earth’s biosphere, but that topic is best addressed separately and dispassionately from how it affects one’s mental health and outlook.
Personal philosophy: if the future/collapse is inevitable anyways, then there’s no point in worrying about it. Do the best with what you have now so you can leave the world with a clean conscience. It’s all we’ve ever been able to do as a species anyways, it’s just that the stakes are more dire for us than ever before.
(except maybe when the global human population hit 3000-10000 during the theorized Toba mass extinction several tens of thousand years ago. Things were pretty dire then ngl)
I kinda feel like the author should probably meet with a therapist tbh. Someone who's paid to actually sit and listen to their thoughts and feelings. They even mention it in the article that they're the type of person who wants to talk things out.
A lot of us are aware of climate change and want to do things about it but just sitting around and inserting it into every conversation they can kinda makes the author seem kinda insufferable to talk to irl.
Yeah I think the thought that "this is how people should think" is clouding over the minds of people like the author. In a vacuum, if you were to say, "hey, I'm having these fatalistic thoughts about the future that's causing depression and a serious degradation of my quality of life", you'd be told to get professional help.
I mean, I can definitely empathize, there's definitely times where I've though "man, life would be so much easier if everything thought the exact same things as I do." But that's not exactly healthy behaviour, haha.
Even if it was "dire" from a statistical standpoint, I'd wager that from an individual standpoint life was exactly the same then as any other century or millennium.
You wake up, you do your best to eat and cooperate and live with the rest of your tribe, you go to sleep, rinse and repeat.
I realize this is somewhat off-topic, but thank you for linking that Wikipedia article on the Toba mass extinction. I never heard of it until now and it is quite interesting!
Ever since we have had people, we have had an imminent collapse looming before us. I wrote a comment about having kids in the face of calamity not that long ago, and I think it is almost directly an answer to this same article, and in the time since I wrote that comment very recently, there have been potentially world changing technologies developed: see the superconductors tag for more information.
The world is not going to end. Society is not going to end. We are not going to be living in a post apocalyptic wasteland. We will live in a society that is different from the one we live in now - hopefully a better one - but that's always the case. Things are different now from when I was young. Things were different when I was young from when my parents were young.
There's a specific point in the article that I would like to call out as incorrect as well:
For the most part, across the world, the vast majority of people came together (by staying apart) to fight COVID-19. It was an almost uniquely american response to flout pandemic protocols to own the libs, which is why the death rate in america was so much worse than everywhere else, and it was red states that were the ones that were doing the bulk of that heavy lifting. Many other places did not have the same issues that people experienced in the USA, but it is a spirit breaking experience to be stuck in the US if you are a person with socialist responsibility tendencies. It's understandable to think that the whole world can't come together to do stuff, but lots of other countries weathered things much better because we did collectively work together.
I'm not sure about that. Reminder that a minority of people live in Europe + NZ + Asian tigers. The parts most ravaged by far by covid was South America (and the global south in general).
Additionally, the whole world basically resolved into the same "solution", if it could be called that by the end, which was the Swedish one, a.k.a the shrugging emoji solution. China was the last holdout, but they're in shrugging emoji mode as well.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
US mortality rate was at 1.1%, slightly below Canada, and significantly below Peru and Mexico, which suffered the most, and not that much higher than Italy or Spain.
Florida and California are an interesting case study within America. They obviously had wildly different policies w.r.g to COVID, but ended up with the same mortality rates (despite far more robust pandemic measures) and the same educational setback (despite Florida having in-person schooling much earlier).
Edit: I did not intend this to be a rebuttal or a dismissal of what you said. I just happened to have that tab that you cited already open and was trying to make sense of some things, and mostly did not address at all the gist of what you were saying. Conversations how do they work?
I looked at the JHU data earlier, and I found the charts to not be particularly enlightening. Lower down there is this data:
I feel like if the Case Fatality rate is 1.1%, then the Deaths/100k should be somewhat close to 110 (and the difference will be in how things are reported) but in the US, it's triple. I did some more poking around, and I guess long story short, I don't find much value in the JHU resource, and have been looking more at the WHO resources; these data visualizations seem to present data that at least seems more internally consistent.
What's your problem with it? Almost a third of the US had COVID, whereas just over 10% of Canada had it. It makes sense that the US's mortality rate per 100k population would be just under 3 times higher.
I would argue that even in the US, people came together to weather the storm that was Covid. Even if some of those did it by physically interacting in ways that caused them to spread the disease, even they did come together in support of each other and did their best to chip in when it came to expenses and sometimes funerals.
It might not be a sensible reaction seen from the vantage point of wanting everyone to stay apart, but there is something deeply human about congregating and socially supporting our fellow person in times of need.
For those that ended up severely ill or dying despite isolating themselves, the experience was much more lonely than for those that also suffered, but with support and closeness with their loved ones.
I can't help but understand the underlying human instinct, even as I disagree with the choices that instinct led them to make.
That's a very important point that I glossed right over by attributing something to malice that wasn't necessarily malicious. Not everyone who didn't do the pandemic protocols did so to "get" the liberals; a lot of us have been taught to get together and check on each other and spend time with each other, especially when sick, so doing so is a very human response. I don't think this is what everyone who didn't stick to the covid regulations was doing - I know people who went out of their way to break guidelines specifically because it would "own the libs" - but a lot of people just wanted to get together for their support networks.
Humans will, for the most part, be "fine". Things will be different but we're not going to see the end of civilization as the author believes. The media has a long history of reporting the problems, and not the solutions. Not to rehash old material but:
I could go on and on, but as a species we continue to address the issues. Some places lag further behind but we are generally collectively working towards fixing things.
As a species yes at least a breeding population of us will go on just fine, even enjoying new tech and new solutions and better conveniences etc.
But I think that it is also okay to mourn the fact that many millions of people in the developing world will have perished in literal doomsday scenarios: their government will collapse, their utility grids will go under, their survival supplies will dwindle and disappear, their land will totally be devastated and not recoverable, civil war, mass migration....
Not all of us. Not all of us will make it.
It's more than "okay" to mourne those who have been or will be lost; it is a moral imperative that we do so, in the same way that we remember victims of other atrocities committed by humans.
I would say that feeling that sadness for the people who don't make it is not contrary to my point, so I'm just wondering about the intent behind what you have written, and this is an earnest question: do you see the author of this post as being aligned with what you have said? Do you feel like what I wrote was not in alignment with what you brought up?
I think that's where some misunderstanding might be happening within the conversation; some people who have fatalistic views think that the people who have hope are being flippant, or not thinking of the people who will die, but we do think of and mourne those people. We just do not think that it will be the end of humans, or even a decimation of humans.
I don't mean to be contrarian and I certainly don't even disagree with you, that humans by and large will be fine.....and I don't think you were being overly optimistic or flippant at all.
I guess it's akin to if someone tells us they're depressed, and then we respond with " but look at all the nice things you have". We're so right that they have so much and so many reasons to rejoice.....it just feels very lonely as a result to continue to be depressed even with these good things.
There's a sense of loneliness in feeling emotions that other people don't feel, and if doesn't even have to do with one being right or another wrong.
If I were in love with a new hobby that no one understands, even well intentioned "cool story bro" hurts. Or I got a new tattoo and everyone says wow that's permanent and cost how much money?
So even if the author is totally off his rocker and the species is totally fine, that loneliness of being "wrong" still exists for him.
I appreciate and, I think, understand what you are saying. If I was having a conversation directly with the author, or with someone who seemed like they were emotionally only prepared for "the collapse" then I would try to approach the conversation more delicately, and even here, I try to be explicit in my validation of the feelings that people have about these situations. I am trying to not be dismissive, in the way that you've outline in your hypotheticals; I think that the feelings that people have of being overwhelmed are really difficult to work through. However, I think it's also really important to note that those feelings are the result of external factors that aren't necessarily presenting the whole truth, and that we have to struggle against doom mentality, because it's often just one of the masks that depression wears. Giving into that mentality is often detrimental to overcoming the issues that we collectively face. Doomerism leads to things like cataclysm prepping, stocking up on guns and ammo, nihilistic consumerism, and more; if things were hopeless, then acting on the small hopes we have are would not be rational.
We've survived an ice age, I just hope we as a species can weather another storm. And I think we can, but it sure would be nice if the world collectively came together to prevent a mass die-off.
Isn't it a little derivative to quote George Carlin, a comedian, on this issue? Not to belittle the vast research I'm sure he did on the subject, but every post discussing climate change has this exact quote posted.
Humans, and civilization have survived many "ends of civilization" as we know it. Sometimes we need to put the phone/computer down and go outside. We've made really good progress against climate change and we continue to do so. We shouldn't give in and say it's hopeless we can do amazing things working together.
If you find yourself feeling this way, bear in mind that this is a mindset that has persisted throughout history. That everything is doomed and bound to get worse, and the halcyon days of the world are past.
The Greeks and Romans had it baked into their religion that the golden age of the world happened long before then, and had already ended. Hinduism says that the world eventually ends when Kalki comes to herald that the world has degraded too much. Malthusians were convinced population growth of the poors would lead to mass starvation.
Point being, it's natural to feel despair that the world will never be as good as it seemed when you were 5.
That doesn't mean you're wrong to be upset or concerned, it's just a bit of perspective that this is a feeling people are prone to happen even when historically it turned out that things were pretty well set.
See also Norse Mythology and Ragnorok.
Vlogbrothers has a term for the psychological place this person is in: the Sad Gap. [4-minute video]
You enter the Sad Gap when you become aware of the numerous, terrifying, extremely difficult problems our future will face. These problems are fairly easy to describe, and it's not difficult to make money/influence doing so, so people do it a lot. It's more difficult to gain followers describing solutions that are still in the design phase and have not yet been proven to work.
The best way to get out of the Sad Gap is to actually engage with these problems. Pick one and dive deep on it. Become an expert. On a deeper-than-surface level, where did this problem come from and what specifically is going to happen? How do the various pieces of the problem affect each other? How confident are we in the various possibilities that have been forecasted? Who is working on this, and what potential remedies have been put forth? What projects are underway to address this issue? How can you use or develop skills that will contribute?
And don't just learn, participate. Go to meetings. Volunteer. Meet people who're as passionate about this as you are. Once you're working to solve the problem you've chosen, it gets a lot easier to trust that other people are working on the other problems.
I respect Vlogbrothers because they follow their own advice on this. They picked maternal mortality in Sierra Leone, and they're helping to build a hospital there. This is not a one-off project; it's an open-ended commitment. They also built a bunch of YouTube channels to help people understand the world at a more-than-superficial level. They know what they're talking about here because they speak from experience.
The problems we face are enormous. Maybe we'll make it; maybe not. But working to fix these problems isn't just better for everyone else; it's better for you.
A couple of years ago, someone very close to me joined an apocalypse cult. I can tell you from personal observation that being in an apocalypse cult makes you highly susceptible to manipulation from people who like power, because nothing matters as much as The Cause. My friend eventually left the cult after the cult leader psychologically broke her. She's still recovering.
So don't ignore the problem, but maintain perspective. Learn whatever you can from trustworthy sources, help however you can, and maintain your mental health. It's better for you and better for everyone else.
Thanks for this. See also the work of Jimmy Carter and the Carter center in nearly eradicating Guinea Worm. A truly impressive large scale effort that required time, effort, money, imagination, research to accomplish.
I feel great empathy for so many in this thread. There's much discounting, many feelings, and so many assumptions about what people are sure they know. And yet so little actual understanding about where things stand globally and environmentally.
I would ask those here right now to make a note to look back on this thread in, say, 3-5 years time and see if you feel similarly to how you do currently. We are on the downhill slope at the moment but so many can't recognize it (and also won't recognize it) and I only hope they truly understand what a terrible spot we're in during the coming years so it isn't so much of shock when their quality of life declines considerably in the future.
I am probably one of the people that you say are discounting and not recognizing things. I think that people like the author who are prepared for societal collapse think that they're the only ones who are taking things seriously, so let me say a few unambiguous things.
Despite all this, I believe that we are going to tackle the issues. I don't believe that we are going to return to pre-industrial climate levels - the ship has sailed on that - but I think that we will find technical ways to survive, progress, and thrive as a species. I don't think that this belief - this hope - means that we're in denial, or that we're not recognizing the tough climate spot that we are in. Rather, it is an acknowledgment of the fact that as a group, we tend to eventually fix the problems that we are facing often using science and engineering.
So I recognize how you are feeling and I think it is a valid way to feel, but I would ask that you also recognize how other people feel and remember that it is also valid.
Thank you. I find it alarming that we have widespread ecological collapse. We have extreme weather events happening so frequently they're becoming accepted as normal. I've already lived through two events that were classified as 1 in 500 year events and never want to do it again. I've seen first hand that we are seriously under prepared to deal with these events and the aftermath. I never thought I'd see the day where I was unable to get my daily medication or emergency services were unavailable for over 24 hours.
I think it's important for people to discuss these feelings because they're valid. It's never good to minimize what we feel. I personally would feel less anxious about the state of the world if I saw more action and acknowledgment that we need change from people and companies in positions to affect large scale solutions. Somehow it feels worse to be told that it's not that bad because summer is supposed to be hot, there's nothing wrong with a little flooding rain, or ocean temperatures reaching 100° is no big deal.
You're on! Setting a reminder for August 1, 2028. I invite you to do the same.
Would you be interested in making any concrete predictions? I expect things will change between now and then. I don't expect you to get anything exactly right—predicting the future is hard—but it would be enlightening to see if things change faster, slower, or in the opposite direction from what you expect.
Fun! Reminders set.
3 years is a very short time ecologically so probably nothing crazy has happened yet and no solid movement on climate change solutions either. Predictions will be very boring.
Prediction: more forest fires, it's just a thing now every summer and there's a air quality indicators when you look at weather forecast, like pollen and chance of rain. Respirators make a come back for seasonal wear. Definition of "summer" also expands.
At least one very popular and enigmatic species gone totally extinct in the wild. I hope they saved brain scans, terabytes of behaviour videos, and genetic samples.
Prices of food continuing to increase, ditto houses prices. Boring same same.
More people leaving the unaffordable city heat domes for semi rural or rural places with the help of work from home. Not a major wave but just a slow change, kind of like how homeschooling went from crazy fringe to noted minority between 90s to now.
Cities won't ever empty though because Canada keeps luring new immigrants to support their Ponzi scheme: new people will come to cities and leave for smaller cities or go home after losing a bunch of money. Kids are also having to find work in the cities, so cities are still kept afloat despite living conditions deteriorating.
Canadian politics, the conservatives have a least one extremely humiliating scandal involving some kind of sex thing. Evangelicals in crisis. Boring same same. Liberals continue to have financial scandals. NDPs continue to not get enough votes to form government.
In America, Biden is re-elected by a terrifyingly narrow margin, some riots, some jail but nothing major. Biden steps down after some kind of health thing or other, at least that's the public story, and his VP takes over running America.
All that sounds plausible to me!
I don't make concrete predictions because there is so much changing on such a large scale and so quickly that it is impossible to do properly...but the trends become obvious as you go regardless. But I will look forward to August 2028 to revisit what we have discussed here and see where we are at.
Thank you. I was afraid to comment since, apparently, I'm one of the few that kinda feels this way. I'm not all in on the doom and gloom, but I'm concerned for the world my nieces and nephews, and their kids, will deal with when I'm gone. I understand I'll be gone, but I still care.
I also have nieces and nephews and struggle internally when I think of what they may have to deal with in their adult lives. I want to help them, to prepare them and yet there is only so much I can do at this point unfortunately.
The thing that’s discounted by many commenters is the scale of it. There’s more people, more consumption, more weapons and we’re finding that elements of our environment have limits while those numbers are getting bigger. Maybe technology or societal changes will prevent disaster, but it won’t be because people didn’t worry about it.
I think discussions around doomsday scenarios suffer from a type of unjustified inductive inference: we're so accustomed to regularity that we're unable to imagine unfamiliar catastrophes.
Try to remember late 2019 and early 2020, when whispers of a novel respiratory virus circulating in China began to spread. Although intellectually we all realized that the possibility of a pandemic existed back in late 2019, few people actually took measures against it. I remember being on a plane to San Diego, visiting friends, when I received an email from my school that classes would be canceled for "a few weeks". I texted a friend that things were probably going to get real weird soon. But I continued my vacation as planned, if perhaps a bit more diligent with my hand washing than usual. A week later, I attended a musical; the next day, the theater shuttered for the subsequent year and a half. The reality of the situation finally set in, and so I quarantined until I was able to get vaccinated nearly a year later.
This is how I imagine climate catastrophe will occur. Everything will seem fine until it clearly isn't. Assuming civilization will rebuild based on past history is a fallacy: of course civilization has survived until now. How could we be having this discussion otherwise? That doesn't guarantee civilization's future.
On the thread re the death of the hiker in Death Valley, someone commented that Europeans are somewhat more likely to ignore warnings about the dangers of hiking because they are not only unfamiliar with the extreme heat, they are more importantly profoundly unfamiliar with the remoteness and isolation of the wilderness in the US and the risks related to not being able to access help in a timely way.
We are unfamiliar with what climate catastrophe would look like, and most people judge risk based on a mix of facts and gut/intuition/experience.
I remember being in my office with my colleagues when I read the breaking news. I immediately foresaw the events that eventually came to pass.
One of the moral tales told me as a child was a variant of the wheat and chessboard problem (but with rice). It's a tale of a subject who asks his king to give him 1 grain of rice on the first chessboard square; 2 on the second; 4 on the third; and so on. The king thought his subject was foolish and agreed. But then it turned out that fulfilling the request would take more rice than the kingdom had. It was an early lesson in the power of arithmetic progression.
I remember colleagues, friends, government officials saying, "well, we don't have to take action yet because this is a problem localized in China, and we here in Europe/US have advanced healthcare." Then it was, "well, let's not overreact, there's only a few cases in Italy. It's not a big deal." I thought they were shortsighted just like that king.
Humans think linearly, but life is non-linear.
FWIW, California’s two biggest reservoirs are all but full after reaching perilously low levels late last year. Not sure how long it will last, but it is a bit of good news. Sometimes we get lucky.
Yes. Last years exceptional quantities of snow changed a lot for this year and next, including recreating Tulare Lake. https://abc30.com/tulare-lake-farmland-impacts-fresh-water-kings-county/12993348/
That's good, but with weather patterns becoming increasingly unreliable and extreme, it still doesn't bode well for the future. If California constantly seesaws between drought and flooding, they'll have to deal with the degrading effects of both.
This is also a good example of how our brains (and media) focus on imminent threats and use them to build a self-reinforcing doom & gloom loop. We can clearly understand that the reservoirs being empty would be bad, and so our brain makes the sad chemicals come out, but we don't seem to have an equivalent "oh that bad thing didn't happen so let's be happy now" effect. If anything, it seems like we're conditioned to go into Eeyore mode to find the unsilver lining on the good news. You gotta learn to take those Ws when you can.
See also: Murder hornets, acid rain, ozone hole, our imminent nuclear destruction during the cold war, or the Dark Planet Nibiru intersecting the Earth in orbit which somehow won't be a problem if you buy this bunker.
If there's anything that /r/collapse (and similar subreddits like /r/unitedkingdom (they're very pessimistic there), /r/antiwork and /r/workreform) made me realize, it's that we are fucked as a human species. We will do nothing to curb our inevitable downfall until we are so far up shit creek without a paddle that we may as well dig our own graves.
Spain and Italy suffer blistering heatwaves. Texas goes through a freak blizzard that knocks out their whole grid infrastructure. The Caribbean suffers through numerous category 4 and 5 hurricanes that have the potential to devastate entire cities, like we saw with Katrina, Irma and Ida. Deaths from extreme heat in America's and Europe's hottest places are going up exponentially. Yet we would rather stick our fingers in our ears and sing "LALALALALALA" to the news that our carbon emissions are literally killing our future on the planet. Oh, and did I mention that the methane we are potentially going to release into the atmosphere from thawing Arctic and Siberian permafrost may accelerate climate change to the point where the worst predictions of sea levels rising whole metres and displacing billions may happen decades sooner?
Our world is ltierally controlled by petrostates that would rather keep big oil running for shorter term profits than save our species. For the Saudis it's going to doom them but the Russians want our glaciers to melt because it means for once that Siberia will be inhabitable and St Petersberg will be usable as a port year-round.
We are also in our worst economic state where nobody in the Western world can afford to even rent a house, let alone buy one. Yet people will still simp for corporations and billionaires that insist that giving workers anything other than a pittance would collapse the economy - whilst corporate fat-cats reap record-breaking profits.
More people aren't having kids because they don't want to raise children in a world as crap as this.
While I think it's good to be aware of the state of the world -- each person needs to balance that with their mental health capacity for such information and focus. As someone with depression and anxiety, doom scrolling would not be good for my mental health and it would paralyze me with inaction rather than motivate me to action. Similar to how counselors must prioritize their own mental health and their ability to help others without burning out, I will not be useful if I sit all day in a room rocking back and forth about how bad the world is.
I am more useful focusing on what is in my sphere of influence. In my case I work for an organization that provides funding to local community projects across my country where the projects focus on one or more of the United Nations' 17 Sustainable Development Goals. Each project is community led by the people it impacts and empowers communities to make a difference.
(EDIT to add: I shared this specific example as I think it's good for people to know about the 17 SDGs, but also perhaps, for those of you who can, to consider if switching jobs/organizations could lead to you spending your working hours each week supporting solutions in one capacity or another. Working in a personally-meaningful job with people who are engaged and hopeful about making a better world has been a boon to my mental health as well.)
While it's important to not put one's head in the sand it goes both ways -- we should also research about the good that is being done in the world too and the myriad of ways people are working on solutions. Rather than focus on fear-based media, how about focusing on content that that motivates you with hope for the future instead? (Once again, I'm not advocating not learning about the issues -- but rather for every 1 doom and gloom article, maybe read 5 ones about people working on solutions to that problem.)
Wow, that's quite the doom and gloom article on par with the crazy guy on the corner yelling about the end of the world.
I doubt it will be that quick, which is bad. It would be a good thing if it came on that quickly. If it were quick, we have a history of pulling crazy solutions out of nowhere when backed into a corner. Mainly because people are far more willing to make sacrifices when stressed. However, if it's too slow it won't register enough to spur people to do more than write articles and believe politicians that claim they want to change things and yet don't use their connections to do more than make wild claims, point fingers and tax poor people for not being able to afford electric cars.
I'm not saying a quick collapse is impossible, it's actually rather depressing how people don't realize our safe little bubble could pop, falsely believing we're too great to fall so far. It would just take a lot to do it at this time, but over time it could easily wear thin and we are on that path.
Say I'm not afraid to look like a crazy doomsday preper and I think things will be really bad in the next 10-15 years. What do I actually start doing?
I'm not rich, but not exactly poor either. I have the resources to begin making preparations but where do I even start? Learn to farm my own food? Stockpile food and medicine? Buy a gun? Move my family somewhere more isolated and begin fortifying my home against the eventual looters and raiders?
I live in northern Alberta which already swings wildly between mid 30s in the summer and -50 in the winter, but it's probably one of the better locations in the world in terms of temperature and access to fresh water. At least till the states stats running dry and come after it.
My two cents, build community, forge strong connections with neighbors, learn survival skills but don't obsess.
People who isolate themselves in the middle of nowhere risk being randomly overrun in the event of collapse.
Jack Whyte's Camulod Chronicles are interesting historical fantasy about the fall of the Roman Empire in Great Britain that might give you some ideas, but I would take it as food for thought, spark for creativity, not a recipe book.
Alas Babylon is another good survival after disaster book
Your question might make a good talk discussion thread as we have a lot of thoughtful people here.
Yup community is how humans have always survived come what may. You don't wang to be lone guns vs many guns, you want to be part of the rotating community with lots of guns.
Learn a cool community like making alcohol or bee keeping. Self sufficiency doesn't mean jack of all trades it means having something to trade and people to trade with.
I'd say things will get really bad in the next 30 years.
If you thought the equator was uninhabitable now, imagine how bad it will be in a few decades when temperatures really start rising. We are going to see hundreds of millions, if not billions of economic migrants flocking north.
The good news is that it won't impact Canada that badly. Your country is quite cold and I can see global warming making the northern part of your country far more inhabitable. It could poise Canada to become one of the main superpowers in a hundred years time.
If you do reach close to doomsday scenario (let's say world close to a thermonuclear war), I'd recommend buying some hydroponics, learning how to grow crops indoors, and keeping a stockpile of long-shelf-life food that can last you for months. If your house has a basement, that can serve as an adequate nuclear bunker.
Dunno about gun laws in Canada, but if you can get a gun permit in Alberta, get a firearm. Live rounds are a good deterrent for home invaders.
Speaking as a Canadian I have no illusions about Canada being any sort of power in 100 years. We ARE America's doomsday bunker and our resources are their MREs. they'll be up here so fast our glaciers wouldn't have time to melt yet. Best individual Canadians can hope for is being merged into the greater melting pot as Americans flock in, sell parcels of our (for now) useless and frigid land to early migrants and build up a bit of capital.
As long as capitalism is here to stay, having some land and some capital is better than having a cellar full of beans or guns.
I don’t know how I feel about that statement. We’re seeing boreal forests burn more than ever before, and their only hope for replacement in a new future is to be replaced by temperate tree migrations north (data from Canada itself).
Replacements of existing homes affected by wildfires are taking at least 3 years due to labor and resource shortages (hopefully there’s no new fires within 3 years!).
I imagine the confluence of these two scenarios is an uber-wilderness survival scenario where there’s no immediate resources and you’re forced to wander northwards in an increasingly volatile climate.
It’s certainly going to fare better than the Global South and Equatorial regions, but the consensus on climate change seems best encapsulated by a phrase I saw recently: no place is safe, only moments in time.
Worrying is different from being aware and subsequently taking steps to mitigate the worst of the looming disaster though.
You cant control MAD, but it still made sense at the time to practice duck and cover or stock that pantry or bunker.