50 votes

2020 US Presidential Election Day - Discussion Thread

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We have a thread here in ~news that's more focused on articles and events, but I also want us to have a more conversational space to process the day. Consider this an open forum for your own thoughts and feelings.

This topic is locked. New comments can not be posted.

248 comments

  1. [12]
    Omnicrola
    Link
    I just got off the phone with my mom. She voted early, and voted Trump. It pains me. I just don't understand it (I do, but, you know...). I know that my mother is a very compassionate, smart lady....

    I just got off the phone with my mom. She voted early, and voted Trump. It pains me. I just don't understand it (I do, but, you know...). I know that my mother is a very compassionate, smart lady. And yet she chose this charlatan sleezeball.

    She didn't want to delve into it, but her short answer when I asked why was that Trump may have a foul mouth, but he's a businessman and not a politician. My dad had a similar response when I talked to him a few weeks ago. My brother is willing to debate and listen, but he and the rest of my family are religious and live in a deeply red state, so I have no illusions about their votes affecting the outcome of the election.

    I just.... It's incredible. It's like taking to family and then they look at a cow in a field and tell you it's a duck. And you know that they've seen a duck before. It's such a disconnect that the mere thought of the amount of disinformation you'll have to unwind to try to get them to understand the depths of their mistake is so overwhelming it feels like it's crushing me.

    I try to console myself on one level by remembering that their state is going red no matter what. Beyond that though, at this point it's more about trying to get them to understand how much they're being used by Trump. We can believe different things and advocate for different policies, but Trump is exploiting them, and I hate it.

    38 votes
    1. [3]
      Micycle_the_Bichael
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      A really really hard conversation I had to have with myself was reconciling "my parents are compassionate people" with "my parents are voting Trump". It was certainly made easier for me when they...
      • Exemplary

      I know that my mother is a very compassionate, smart lady. And yet she chose this charlatan sleezeball.

      A really really hard conversation I had to have with myself was reconciling "my parents are compassionate people" with "my parents are voting Trump". It was certainly made easier for me when they got more racist (historically only my aunts/uncles/grandparents were racists while my parents sat silently). Kat Blaque made two videos: video 1 and video 2 that really hit me. I would urge people to watch all of both because Kat is honestly one of the youtube leftists who is most willing to give people a chance to grow and redeem themselves and is pretty against "cancelling" people. The focal point of the videos is about YouTuber's, but there is a whole lot of really good bigger and more general ideas and thoughts. The part of the video that I want to hone in on is here from video 2. In video 1 she discusses leeway and how when people do racist things what they are then given is the leeway to grow. You can't force growth, but you can give them time and space and help to grow. Then the timestamp in the last link is to a point in video 2 where she discusses leeway and how that leeway affects your friends in marginalized groups. I wish I could do justice to the points she makes but I can't, so if you don't want to watch 40 minutes of youtube I understand, but at least give the timestamped section (about 5 minutes) a listen. It made me realize how narrow my definition of "compassionate" was and how both my parents actions as well as my reactions to my parents are viewed through the lens of the victims. At the root of the 5 minute video are very difficult and uncomfortable conversations. Trust me, I know. I'm in the middle of these conversations right now.

      Edit: Rewatching the video to give timestamps and make sure I was linking to the right video I found one of the lines that hit me hardest when watching and really kickstarted my gears turning. So I'm typing out two short quotes here, but more thought and context is in the video:

      Listening to Tati say that triggered a familiar feeling in me. That feeling of having a white friend who is hesitant to stand up for you. Now contrary to popular belief, I don't think every white person is a racist. But what I will say is that pretty much every white person has a relationship that they value more than any relationship they will ever have with a black person. [...] Think about your racist family members. Would you cut them off before you would cut off your black friend? [..] People who are friends with me, who have no problem with me, but have these people in their lives who engage with racism, and I've had experiences where their friend says something racist, and I say "hey man, you're being racist" and suddenly I'm the asshole, suddenly I'm the angry person, suddenly I'm the jerk for pointing out that their racist friend is being racist.

      Look, you might not be racist. Of course not, you're one of the good ones, right? But the relationships you choose to maintain with the people who hurt the people you claim to support really shows where you stand. Tati said... Jeffery was like a lion. He was dangerous, but he was always nice to her. And I found that really interesting. "Yeah, maybe he's racist but he's always nice to me!" There's something about hearing that out loud that cuts a little to deep.

      To zoom out a bit: I know it can be argued that voting for trump and being racist are different. But to say there isn't a correlation there would be disingenuous. Yes, there is racism in the dems. Yes, it can be argued that not all Trump supporters are consciously and loudly racist. I'm not going to make any statements about your mom as a person because I don't know her. But I do think its worth watching the 5 minutes of the kat blaque video and spending time reflecting on the questions she asks and the points she raises.

      EDIT2: Since posting this, youtube has since suggested this Kat Blaque video to me titled "Friending and Forgiving Racists | Kat Blaque" which I have never seen before but feels obviously related enough to add here.

      EDIT3: After watching this at 1.25x holy shit this was an incredible video. I'm going to post it as a topic honestly. Adding an additional quote from this video that hits like a truck:

      A lot of white people seem to see racism as a simple ideological or moral dilemma. "Only bad people are racist and if this person was nice to me how can they be racist?" I think because anti-blackness isn't a part of their daily lives, its very very easy for them to dismiss it as a simple disagreement. People [boil things down] to grease paint or just a collection of words. And they dismiss it because to them that's not as bad as burning a cross on somebody's lawn. [..] I think a lot of white people see painting your face black is just this innocuous thing. They see acting like a black stereotype as this innocuous thing. But for me, I see it for what it is because I understand that it's those sorts of notions that allowed those police officers to feel that they could abuse my father, that they could be racist and get away with it. So when I hear racism, no matter how subtle it is, I hear the violence behind it.

      24 votes
      1. [2]
        thundergolfer
        Link Parent
        Great comment. The actual quote is this: Which I think puts a much sharper point on things. It's quite uncontroversial that children are very likely hugely biased in favour of their parents, and...

        Great comment.

        I will say is that pretty much every white person has a relationship that they value more than any relationship they will ever have with a black person

        The actual quote is this:

        I will say is that pretty much every white person has a relationship with a racist that they value more than any relationship they will ever have with a black person

        Which I think puts a much sharper point on things.

        It's quite uncontroversial that children are very likely hugely biased in favour of their parents, and that's at play when you see quotes like these:

        I know that my mother is a very compassionate, smart lady.

        A hard conversation or some soul searching is certainly in order.

        11 votes
        1. Micycle_the_Bichael
          Link Parent
          Good catch!! Also shoutout to people who make closed captions. It was hard as hell to type as fast as the video and obviously I had mistakes.

          Good catch!! Also shoutout to people who make closed captions. It was hard as hell to type as fast as the video and obviously I had mistakes.

          5 votes
    2. tunneljumper
      Link Parent
      He's not even a good businessman!

      He's not even a good businessman!

      29 votes
    3. [3]
      rogue_cricket
      Link Parent
      The idea that anyone would want their country run like a business in any way is absolutely baffling to me. Citizens are not employees. You can't fire them.

      The idea that anyone would want their country run like a business in any way is absolutely baffling to me. Citizens are not employees. You can't fire them.

      25 votes
      1. [2]
        skybrian
        Link Parent
        It’s unclear what people mean when they say this. It doesn’t seem like it should be taken literally, and it’s also a slogan that tends to be repeated without thinking much about it. But a...

        It’s unclear what people mean when they say this. It doesn’t seem like it should be taken literally, and it’s also a slogan that tends to be repeated without thinking much about it.

        But a charitable interpretation might be that they want government services to be as efficient as they might be if they were done by a well-run business?

        Along those lines, it’s quite difficult to fire civil service employees, for good reason. But Trump has been trying to make them easier to fire. Yet another thing to worry about.

        10 votes
        1. Omnicrola
          Link Parent
          That's kind of how I've always interpreted it. And in certain aspects it does make sense. If you look at the job of the president, they're supposed to oversee and lead an organization of thousands...

          But a charitable interpretation might be that they want government services to be as efficient as they might be if they were done by a well-run business?

          That's kind of how I've always interpreted it. And in certain aspects it does make sense. If you look at the job of the president, they're supposed to oversee and lead an organization of thousands of people. What's a comparable job to that? Leading a company of thousands of people. And I do think good leadership skills would translate fairly well. Once you dig past that superficial comparison though, there's a huge number of differences.

          Other problem is Trump isn't a good leader, he's a salesman, and a shitty one at that.

          15 votes
    4. [2]
      hamstergeddon
      Link Parent
      I really need to see more people say this kind of thing. I love my parents and they are genuinely good people...except for their fondness of Trump. And that's really hard for me to reconcile.

      I know that my mother is a very compassionate, smart lady. And yet she chose this charlatan sleezeball.

      I really need to see more people say this kind of thing. I love my parents and they are genuinely good people...except for their fondness of Trump. And that's really hard for me to reconcile.

      7 votes
      1. Micycle_the_Bichael
        Link Parent
        Not trying to plug my own comment too much but I wrote a post above about my current attempts and links to some Kat Blaque videos that ask some really tough questions that I think anyone who...

        Not trying to plug my own comment too much but I wrote a post above about my current attempts and links to some Kat Blaque videos that ask some really tough questions that I think anyone who claims to be anti-<prejudice>ist while still having Trump supporting family/friends need to sit down and ask themselves, and I say that not as someone who claims to have the answers, but as someone who is going through this process themselves.

        8 votes
    5. Parliament
      Link Parent
      Every time I hear someone argue for putting business people in politics, I think of that Robert Goulet skit from SNL: You wouldn't let a clown fix a leak in the john, so why do you let these...

      Every time I hear someone argue for putting business people in politics, I think of that Robert Goulet skit from SNL:

      You wouldn't let a clown fix a leak in the john, so why do you let these hooligans tear down the biz?

      6 votes
    6. ivy
      Link Parent
      I feel you. My parents have always been conservatives; they are wonderful people who just see the world differently than I do. They won't tell me who they voted for but I am pretty sure they went...

      I feel you. My parents have always been conservatives; they are wonderful people who just see the world differently than I do. They won't tell me who they voted for but I am pretty sure they went blue just this once. I think that's going to happen a lot this year.

      3 votes
  2. [16]
    Comment deleted by author
    Link
    1. [6]
      kfwyre
      Link Parent
      I'm with you. I really thought COVID was going to be his downfall. He politicized a pandemic, actively fought against its mitigation, let it get out of control nationwide, and ended up falling ill...

      I'm with you. I really thought COVID was going to be his downfall. He politicized a pandemic, actively fought against its mitigation, let it get out of control nationwide, and ended up falling ill to it himself just weeks before the election. It's hard to imagine a more incompetent handling of the issue. Meanwhile, more than seemingly any other issue, COVID is negatively affecting nearly every single American voter. The whole country is fatigued by this plague which hasn't let up in months and isn't going to any time soon. While I've been managing my expectations regarding this election for a long time, I genuinely did think that we would see his support drop because of it.

      Turns out I was wrong. I think it put into perspective one of the few very solid truths Trump has ever told: "[he] could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and [he] wouldn’t lose voters.". Quite the contrary, actually. 200,000+ dead from COVID and eight months into a still unchecked pandemic he helped enable, and he's gained voters.

      20 votes
      1. [5]
        PahoojyMan
        Link Parent
        Trump isn't the problem, he's just a symptom of a toxic culture spreading to more and more Americans. As much as I can't bear the thought of another 4 years of Trump, maybe America hasn't been...

        Trump isn't the problem, he's just a symptom of a toxic culture spreading to more and more Americans.

        As much as I can't bear the thought of another 4 years of Trump, maybe America hasn't been through enough yet to make real change to ensure this can never happen again. In much the same way that many people only make significant positive life changes after hitting rock bottom. It would appear that this isn't rock bottom for America.

        13 votes
        1. [4]
          teaearlgraycold
          Link Parent
          We should hope for an alternative, because rock bottom might mean millions dead.

          We should hope for an alternative, because rock bottom might mean millions dead.

          6 votes
          1. [3]
            PahoojyMan
            Link Parent
            I'm certain it will. But without meaningful change to systemic and cultural issues, America is left with around 50% of its population actually wanting another Trump, who will do even more damage...

            I'm certain it will.

            But without meaningful change to systemic and cultural issues, America is left with around 50% of its population actually wanting another Trump, who will do even more damage next time.

            6 votes
            1. [2]
              NaraVara
              Link Parent
              Don't confuse 50% of the electorate with 50% of the population. Voter suppression and disenfranchisement are designed to keep Republicans competitive despite their agenda being broadly unpopular....

              Don't confuse 50% of the electorate with 50% of the population. Voter suppression and disenfranchisement are designed to keep Republicans competitive despite their agenda being broadly unpopular.

              Also California hasn't actually released it's raw totals yet. Once it does Biden is likely to hit a 54% popular vote lead or higher. The only reason this isn't done and dusted is because the electoral college is a byzantine and irrational institution that rewards rigging and gamesmanship and amplifies the effects of random contingent events, like a riot breaking out in Maricopa county or a pipe bursting in a warehouse outside Atlanta.

              9 votes
              1. j3n
                Link Parent
                None of that really matters to this particular thread. Whether it's 49% or 45% or 30%, the fact that a huge portion of the American populace still voted for Trump after the last 4 years is a...

                None of that really matters to this particular thread. Whether it's 49% or 45% or 30%, the fact that a huge portion of the American populace still voted for Trump after the last 4 years is a massive problem for the nation.

                12 votes
    2. [8]
      Gaywallet
      Link Parent
      I find myself facing some rather depressing thoughts given these numbers. I don't want to become even more jaded, because I often feel like I'm already too jaded, but how is it possible that 67...

      I find myself facing some rather depressing thoughts given these numbers. I don't want to become even more jaded, because I often feel like I'm already too jaded, but how is it possible that 67 million Americans came to the polls and made this choice? We have a lot further to go than I thought. Education is a bigger problem than I thought. Racism is more problematic than I thought. My outlook on the future is bleaker than it's ever been. I'm not sure what to do with this information.

      15 votes
      1. [3]
        Omnicrola
        Link Parent
        The thing I keep coming back to is information. There is such an incredible pile of things that make Trump unfit to manage a duplex, much a country. But it's all been downplayed, ignored,...

        The thing I keep coming back to is information. There is such an incredible pile of things that make Trump unfit to manage a duplex, much a country. But it's all been downplayed, ignored, gaslighted, or otherwise obfuscated by various aspects of the media. And I'm sure there's a dose of foreign influence in there as well. And on top of that, they have managed to paint Biden as the coming of the apocalypse for every sacred value Republicans hold.

        I don't think Biden is the perfect candidate, far from it, and I certainly don't think he's a perfect human being. He is however, at the very least, someone who can pretend to give a shit. And that's how fucking far the bar has been lowered. As @Gaywallet says below, I'd just like a president who isn't aggressively incompetent and openly hostile.

        Beyond the current election though, we have a massive problem with the way information is disseminated in this country, and probably world wide. This disinformation problem is only seems to be getting worse, and I have no idea what to do about it, and it terrifies me.

        17 votes
        1. [2]
          thundergolfer
          Link Parent
          Have you read Manufacturing Consent? If not, highly recommended to help get an idea of how information produces and persists certain political realities.

          This disinformation problem is only seems to be getting worse, and I have no idea what to do about it, and it terrifies me.

          Have you read Manufacturing Consent? If not, highly recommended to help get an idea of how information produces and persists certain political realities.

          10 votes
          1. Omnicrola
            Link Parent
            I haven't, but I'll add it to my ereader right now.

            I haven't, but I'll add it to my ereader right now.

            4 votes
      2. [3]
        thundergolfer
        (edited )
        Link Parent
        I haven't had time to properly research this, but I've partly come around to the idea that the mass die-off of the boomer generation is the crucial political period of this century. The Republican...

        I haven't had time to properly research this, but I've partly come around to the idea that the mass die-off of the boomer generation is the crucial political period of this century. The Republican party does absolutely abysmally with the youth, like record-setting levels of low support. Thus, the state of politics in 20 years will be largely determinative of the rest of the century. If the planet has devolved into fearful eco-fascism (or close to it) and the middle aged population has somehow followed their parents and split along neoliberalism-vs-ethnonationalism lines, we're in all sorts of trouble when Climate Change really gets bad in 2100.

        Today's 20-40 year olds need to start culturally and politically preparing for the inevitable disasters coming their way, and keep safe an emerging new 'fat-middle' of society that is full of solidarity, equality, and democracy.

        Education is a bigger problem than I thought. Racism is more problematic than I thought.

        To link the above with your comment better, fixing education is a generation-long project. It is very hard and very expensive to educate a population, just as it was very hard and very expensive to make the USA this stupid. Racism is also massive problem, both for the interests of domestic minorities but also poorer nations abroad . It's crudely but basically true that the entire story of the USA democratic project is one of democracy vs white supremacy.

        10 votes
        1. [2]
          KapteinB
          Link Parent
          Is the problem that boomers vote republican, or that old people vote republican? The share of old people is projected to increase for the foreseeable future.

          the mass die-off of the boomer generation is the crucial political period of this century. The Republican party does absolutely abysmally with the youth, like record-setting levels of low support. Thus, the state of politics in 20 years will be largely determinative of the rest of the century.

          Is the problem that boomers vote republican, or that old people vote republican? The share of old people is projected to increase for the foreseeable future.

          10 votes
          1. thundergolfer
            Link Parent
            The problem is that old boomers are very right wing, partly because they came into early adulthood and middle age during Reagan's political dominance and were subsequently bombarded with...

            The problem is that old boomers are very right wing, partly because they came into early adulthood and middle age during Reagan's political dominance and were subsequently bombarded with right-wing propaganda for decades.

            Young people are markedly more left-wing than boomers, and it's likely that they'll keep their politics mostly intact as they hit middle age. Sure, then political-centre will move around them and they may become tomorrow's right-wing, but that's basically always happened. It is mostly untrue that people go from left-wing to right-wing as they age.

            There's generally a huge societal problem of old people not changing their beliefs and politics as they age and society changes, but that's not realistically solve-able. It is true that today's old people are at least not openly savage to black people and homosexuals, as yesterday's old people used to be, and that's progress. Tomorrow's old people will hopefully have improved to a point where they stop climate devastation.

            12 votes
      3. [2]
        Comment deleted by author
        Link Parent
        1. Gaywallet
          Link Parent
          Wait people are voting to change the system? I'm just trying to vote for someone who won't actively kill people through gross mismanagement, make us look terrible to the rest of the world, roll...

          Many people hate the Democrats as much as I do but not all of them are willing to elect a Dem and then try to use the ensuing calm to change the system.

          Wait people are voting to change the system? I'm just trying to vote for someone who won't actively kill people through gross mismanagement, make us look terrible to the rest of the world, roll back climate protections, line his own pockets, focus on corporate rights over the rights of Americans, not separate children from their parents in ICE detention centers, not attempt to actively repeal women's rights, the right to abortion, trans rights, and countless other issues which are direct violence on minorities. I can't even imagine having faith that we could have a representative government anytime soon.

          10 votes
    3. NaraVara
      Link Parent
      They think it’s not worth the economy to save lives. They think it’s fine for “the weak” to die.

      Or do people really think that COVID is a hoax, somehow?

      They think it’s not worth the economy to save lives. They think it’s fine for “the weak” to die.

      4 votes
  3. [8]
    emdash
    Link
    I'm not even from the States, but all I can think of saying at this point is "Thank christ"—everyone's nerves are frayed and I don't know a single person who doesn't want this to be over.

    I'm not even from the States, but all I can think of saying at this point is "Thank christ"—everyone's nerves are frayed and I don't know a single person who doesn't want this to be over.

    29 votes
    1. [4]
      kfwyre
      Link Parent
      There's a part of me that is anticipating some relief, but there's another part of me that is expecting tomorrow to merely be the beginning of a much darker period -- and that's saying something...

      There's a part of me that is anticipating some relief, but there's another part of me that is expecting tomorrow to merely be the beginning of a much darker period -- and that's saying something considering where we currently are. I hope the former part of me is right, but I'm honestly bracing for the worst. I do not believe Trump will concede even if the outcome is definitively against him. And if the outcome is less definitive and is at all murky, then I believe he is going to exploit that uncertainty for anything and everything he can get from it.

      I hate to be a downer but I do believe in managing expectations: I don't know that this will all be over as soon as we'd like it to be.

      28 votes
      1. SantalBlush
        Link Parent
        I don't blame anyone for being worried, considering everything he has said and done for the past four years. And while it's easy to envision him staying in office through corrupt means, I find it...

        I don't blame anyone for being worried, considering everything he has said and done for the past four years. And while it's easy to envision him staying in office through corrupt means, I find it easier to envision him losing and moving on.

        Think about it. After his presidency, he gets invited to talk on any right wing show he wants, where he is the star. He can ramble about how the corrupt Democrats rigged the election, and what a terrible job Biden is doing. He should know after all, based on his tremendous experience as President, where he did all kinds of amazing things. He can gripe and boast to his adoring fans while politicians blow smoke up his ass to gain access to his base. He can be the professional blowhard he has wanted to be.

        At any rate, we'll likely have a better idea one way or the other very soon.

        12 votes
      2. [3]
        Comment deleted by author
        Link Parent
        1. [2]
          aphoenix
          Link Parent
          I'm anticipating both of those things. Trump has already started legal proceedings in some states. He knows he can't win. That's why the Republicans went back on their sworn and solemn promise...

          I'm anticipating both of those things.

          Trump has already started legal proceedings in some states. He knows he can't win. That's why the Republicans went back on their sworn and solemn promise about appointing someone to the Supreme Court.

          10 votes
    2. [4]
      Comment deleted by author
      Link Parent
      1. [2]
        RapidEyeMovement
        Link Parent
        It feels calculated at this point. Every election now must be some existential threat to 'our way of life'. It would be ignorant to not knowledge that this is being pushed from both the left and...

        It feels calculated at this point. Every election now must be some existential threat to 'our way of life'. It would be ignorant to not knowledge that this is being pushed from both the left and the right. Vote or Die has become a permanent mantra.

        Everyone I know had an overwhelming anxious feeling. We want this to be over. We want things to go back to the 'way they were'. But no matter the outcome, I don't believe that is possible. There are no longer any undecided voters*. Now there are just unmotivated voters . So then the theory becomes you need to motivate your base to get them out and vote. There are a lot of ways to do that. Either through holding rallies, so the crowd can watch the crowd and motivate each other to go out and vote. (Trumps polling has gone up as his rallies have increased). Fear is a great motivator. Hope is also another motivator. But the take away shouldn't be which is the better motivator. The take away is that politicians now know there are levers that they can pull to motivate people to vote. Those levers are not going away. Politicians will continued to be pull on those levers, to enrage, pester, annoy, encourage,discourage, cheer you on to vote. While not ever lever is designed for you, know that ever lever is designed for someone. You might think a certain lever is an obvious or obnoxious manipulation, that does not mean the other guy or gal will.

        * undecided voters just wont/don't vote, so why try to motivate them to go to the polls

        16 votes
        1. SantalBlush
          Link Parent
          Reminds me of the classic quote from H. L. Mencken: Here are some other gems:

          Reminds me of the classic quote from H. L. Mencken:

          The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary.

          Here are some other gems:

          As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.

          Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard.

          14 votes
      2. skybrian
        Link Parent
        I’m tired of it too, but that is kind of the point of democracy. The losing side accepts the results in part because they can try again later. But I’m hoping we will get a bit of a respite next year.

        I’m tired of it too, but that is kind of the point of democracy. The losing side accepts the results in part because they can try again later.

        But I’m hoping we will get a bit of a respite next year.

        4 votes
  4. [2]
    Qis
    Link
    My very offline roommate just came to my doorway in a towel and said the absolutely sublime sentence "if anything happens at any point in the day, just scream and I will do the same"

    My very offline roommate just came to my doorway in a towel and said the absolutely sublime sentence "if anything happens at any point in the day, just scream and I will do the same"

    28 votes
    1. Grimalkin
      Link Parent
      This sounds like an excellent roommate relationship the two of you have.

      This sounds like an excellent roommate relationship the two of you have.

      7 votes
  5. [2]
    hungariantoast
    Link
    Random comment I noticed on 538's live feed by Lee Drutman:

    Random comment I noticed on 538's live feed by Lee Drutman:

    I published a book earlier this year, “Breaking the Two-Party Doom Loop: The Case for Multiparty Democracy in America,” in which I worried about an escalating feedback loop of hyper-partisan animosity undermining the very legitimacy of our democracy. I offered this conclusion: “We know how democracies die. They die when the country splits apart into two sides that distrust and fear each other so much that one side blows up norms of fair play to keep the other side out of power. Once that happens, it’s hard to build back stability. Unfortunately, this is where America’s doom loop of toxic two-party politics is headed.” Tonight, I’m feeling more pessimistic than I was when I finished the book. It feels like the time sands are slipping through the hourglass faster than I feared.

    I still believe that electoral reforms that would break this razor’s-edge zero-sum binary and move us to a proportional, multiparty system hold tremendous promise. I just hope we can find a path to get there. Perhaps when this all is over, we’ll have a genuine soul-searching and start having a bigger conversation about what we want our democracy to be.

    27 votes
    1. JXM
      Link Parent
      I just read that and I couldn't agree more. Having a binary, two party system makes it so much more "all or nothing" than it should be. It needlessly pits people against each other.

      I just read that and I couldn't agree more. Having a binary, two party system makes it so much more "all or nothing" than it should be. It needlessly pits people against each other.

      14 votes
  6. [27]
    suspended
    Link
    My wife and I have been in talks since 2003 about leaving the US. After Bowling for Columbine woke us up from our stupor, we decided to put things on a temporary hold. Now that we have young...

    My wife and I have been in talks since 2003 about leaving the US. After Bowling for Columbine woke us up from our stupor, we decided to put things on a temporary hold.

    Now that we have young children, we are not thinking in terms of our selves. We will do anything to ensure the success of our offspring even if it means leaving all of our family and friends.

    We want our two sons to live in a place where they have the best shot at a full life. Right now we don't believe that it is in the US. No matter the outcome of the current election cycle, we don't believe that conditions will improve here. We could be wrong but we are coming to grips with the fact that this is too big of a risk to take for the lives of our young boys.

    22 votes
    1. [10]
      WendigoTulpa
      Link Parent
      Hey, I don't want to come off as argumentative, though I am curious why you feel prospects are so bleak in the U.S. I'm currently 27, and am reasonably content with my prospects in life. Yeah we...

      Hey, I don't want to come off as argumentative, though I am curious why you feel prospects are so bleak in the U.S.

      I'm currently 27, and am reasonably content with my prospects in life. Yeah we don't have some booming "war-time-esque" economy, but I generally try to compare our situation to, for instance, what it would have felt like to be a 27 year old during the great depression. Somehow, in retrospect, those people got by. Similarly, if I can momentarily take off my consumerist glasses, I realize life's not so bad, and being around friends and family are the most important things that can bring me joy.

      I have no clue what it feels like to have young children to care for, but what do you think constitutes a "full life" that they somehow wouldn't be able to achieve? The future will likely contain certain paradigm shifts that are strange to us, but you know, if they find some kind of work, some kind of hobby, and maybe someone to love, then what else can you want?

      Maybe I'm being naive here (it's very possible!). I always thought the whole "flee the U.S." thing was a bit of a meme.

      11 votes
      1. [2]
        ivy
        Link Parent
        I think that if you have enough resources at your disposal the US is a great place to live. However, the key is that you have your own personal support structure to fall back on. If something goes...

        I think that if you have enough resources at your disposal the US is a great place to live. However, the key is that you have your own personal support structure to fall back on. If something goes wrong and you end up down and out you're basically on your own compared to other countries. So for the most risk adverse among us, it makes sense to move to a place with a stronger social safety net.

        20 votes
        1. vektor
          Link Parent
          Nevermind that "those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable". Yeah, you're content and well-enough off now. But there's a lot of people right now who...

          Nevermind that "those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable". Yeah, you're content and well-enough off now. But there's a lot of people right now who justifiably aren't and it looks like Trump will put more of a squeeze on them if you let him. Now... that works all the way until it doesn't. How easily the situation can change... well, George Floyd showed you what it took. And if that happens just a little bit bigger, it might not be pleasant for anyone.

          5 votes
      2. [7]
        suspended
        (edited )
        Link Parent
        Take a look at this list and compare it with the US.

        Take a look at this list and compare it with the US.

        7 votes
        1. [6]
          arp242
          (edited )
          Link Parent
          I've never lived in the US, but as a European who lived in NZ I can tell you that those numbers don't give you a complete picture: Salaries tend to be rather low, and cost of living is rather...

          I've never lived in the US, but as a European who lived in NZ I can tell you that those numbers don't give you a complete picture:

          • Salaries tend to be rather low, and cost of living is rather high. Food can be crazy expensive. The amount of disposable income I had was much on the lower compared to what I was used to in Europe (and my salary stayed exactly the same!) Most cars tend to be second-hand cars imported from Japan for example.

          • Housing is shockingly bad. Like, wood buildings with single glazing and no isolation. Central heating is pretty much non-existent. If you live up north this is more or less okay as it's quite warm. Further down south it's pretty cold. I don't get cold easily, but darn I've been cold in NZ. It's also pretty expensive, especially considering what you get for it. I think they introduced the first legislation which actually mandates a minimum standard only about 2 years ago.

          • Cycling infrastructure is a mixed bag (like most places), but NZ is definitely the country where I experienced the most aggression from drivers.

          • Dating Kiwi people is damn near impossible. If I'm honest I don't know how they manage to reproduce and maintain population levels. I ended up having an American girlfriend and her experience was the same. Some of my Kiwi friends said the general way is to "just get really drunk" ...yeah, real choice...

          Don't get me wrong, I loved living in New Zealand and wished I could've stayed. After COVID is over I'll think about settling there more permanently (not sure what I'll do yet, but it's certainly an option), I don't want to discourage you from going, I'd just like to point out that these kind of numbers tell a very incomplete story. I know some people who moved to various parts of the world (Netherlands, New Zealand, England, Japan, England, Ireland) and absolutely hated it there. My American girlfriend I had in NZ? She moved there with her husband and they ended up divorcing because he hated it so much there (there were probably other factors as well, I only got part of the story of course, but it certainly was a major factor). Just something to be aware of, and at the end of the day it's better take take a chance and fail then never try at all.

          (aside: I see that Ireland is 3rd globally on the HDI, and I can certainly tell you that's a very incomplete story as well; I'm actually quite shocked Ireland is so high up to the point where I'm seriously doubting the methodology behind the whole HDI).

          20 votes
          1. [2]
            wycy
            Link Parent
            What do you mean by this? That Kiwis didn't want to date Americans, or that they weren't particularly interested in dating at all? Do you mean it was more of a hookup culture vs a relationship...

            Dating Kiwi people is damn near impossible.

            What do you mean by this? That Kiwis didn't want to date Americans, or that they weren't particularly interested in dating at all? Do you mean it was more of a hookup culture vs a relationship culture?

            6 votes
            1. arp242
              Link Parent
              They tend to just really uncomfortable with the topics of dating and sex. It's hard to put in words, but in general people tend to be very reserved. This doesn't describe everyone, of course.

              They tend to just really uncomfortable with the topics of dating and sex. It's hard to put in words, but in general people tend to be very reserved. This doesn't describe everyone, of course.

              4 votes
          2. [3]
            suspended
            Link Parent
            Thanks for the feedback. My wife and I are going to take the next couple of years to carefully examine our options. New Zealand, Canada, Chile and others will be on the table.

            Thanks for the feedback. My wife and I are going to take the next couple of years to carefully examine our options. New Zealand, Canada, Chile and others will be on the table.

            3 votes
            1. [2]
              hungariantoast
              Link Parent
              I forgot to ask when you mentioned this yesterday, but why Chile? Does it have anything to do with the recent unrest and rewrite of their constitution? I am very uninformed about what's going on...

              Chile

              I forgot to ask when you mentioned this yesterday, but why Chile? Does it have anything to do with the recent unrest and rewrite of their constitution?

              I am very uninformed about what's going on there, so I'd love to hear your thoughts and why you're considering it alongside New Zealand and Canada

              5 votes
              1. suspended
                Link Parent
                It's just one of those places that I've done some preliminary looking into. After talking to my wife last night, we've decided to take two years to carefully look into all of our immigration...

                It's just one of those places that I've done some preliminary looking into. After talking to my wife last night, we've decided to take two years to carefully look into all of our immigration options. Besides the three that I've already mentioned we may add to the list substantially.

                Back to Chile. The reason it is even on my radar is because a former employer would go there on vacation every year. So, I always asked him about his trips there. He told me quite a bit about it that interested me. Not just socially but geographically as well. My wife and I love to be outdoors and there is a lot of promising outdoor experiences to be had there. Beautiful oceans and mountains to explore.

                4 votes
    2. [7]
      Omnicrola
      Link Parent
      I don't blame you one iota, and in most situations I'm usually in the solidly optimistic "we can fix it" camp. I've considered leaving myself, though I don't know where I'd go. I know where I'd...

      I don't blame you one iota, and in most situations I'm usually in the solidly optimistic "we can fix it" camp.

      I've considered leaving myself, though I don't know where I'd go. I know where I'd like to go, but that's different from what's feasible.

      I do wonder if it was easier to get out of the US (geographically speaking, as we only have 2 direct neighbors), how different all the demographics would be.

      8 votes
      1. [6]
        Eabryt
        Link Parent
        I'm also a bit curious about this. I feel like travel in European companies is a lot more fluid than the US. Although I'm not sure that translates directly to actually emigrating/immigrating.

        I'm also a bit curious about this. I feel like travel in European companies is a lot more fluid than the US. Although I'm not sure that translates directly to actually emigrating/immigrating.

        3 votes
        1. [5]
          Omnicrola
          Link Parent
          On a country by country basis I think you're right. Travel itself is pretty easy (not counting pandemics), so visiting Canada or Mexico is as easy as driving there and showing your driver's...

          On a country by country basis I think you're right.

          Travel itself is pretty easy (not counting pandemics), so visiting Canada or Mexico is as easy as driving there and showing your driver's licence. (I say this as a white male, so there's that)

          Moving is different. Canada has some strict immigration rules and limits, so there's a cap there. Mexico I haven't looked to closely at, but if you have American income I suspect you can live quite well there.

          3 votes
          1. arp242
            Link Parent
            I've lived in a few different countries over the last few years; England and Ireland were easy, on account of the EU, but New Zealand and Indonesia are much harder. You'd think that it would be...
            • Exemplary

            Moving is different. Canada has some strict immigration rules and limits, so there's a cap there. Mexico I haven't looked to closely at, but if you have American income I suspect you can live quite well there.

            I've lived in a few different countries over the last few years; England and Ireland were easy, on account of the EU, but New Zealand and Indonesia are much harder. You'd think that it would be comparatively easy as an experienced knowledge worker in a field with a large labour shortage (software dev), but it's much harder than you'd think, or at least, than I thought it would e. And generally speaking, the poorer the country, the harder it is; you'd think the opposite, as I'd be more "wanted", but that doesn't seem to be how it really works.

            I looked at Ethiopia at some point; a bit of an odd choice perhaps, but I've heard some interesting things, but the immigration procedures are actually harder than a country like New Zealand. Of course, the "facts on the ground" don't always match with what's written on the websites in these countries, but it's all a big hassle. So no Ethiopia for me. I also looked at Suriname (north of Brazil, Dutch colony until 1975, still speak Dutch) as I figured that might be easy on account of the history, but not really 🤷‍♂️

            A lot of people use silly tricks; the standard way to stay in Indonesia is to get a "social visa" which is up to 6 months: 2 months initially, and then 3 (optional) extensions for 2 months each. The entire procedure is laughable:

            • You can only get it from abroad, so people fly to Singapore, Malaysia, etc. and get it from the consulate there. There's no reason it has to be like this, other than that you pay $180 SGD to the consul.

            • The extension process is so silly it's almost like a parody: first you go to the immigration office to apply for an extension, they then process this and you return a few days later to pay, after this is processed you return so they can take your picture and fingerprints (they do this every time, just in case it changes?), and then you finally return again for a fourth time for the stamp in your passport. Most people just pay a visa agency to handle most of it (except the picture/fingerprint part).

            • Even for a tourist visa the process is weird: normally it's a 30-day visa-on-arrival entry, but if you go to a little desk on the airport before border patrol you can get a voucher to extend it for another 30 days; you just have to pay $25 or so. If you don't get the voucher at this desk you can't get this extension as far as I know.

            • You're not allowed (work visa is very difficult to get, and not even necessarily better) but in practice most people do anyway. This is all fine except when it's not, usually when someone decides they need some extra money or some such 🤷‍♂️

            New Zealand was a lot easier, I just submitted a web form with some details and bank account statements, paid $150NZD, and I had a 9 month visa. More or less similar for the work visa (although I didn't finish the application for that one).


            At any rate, your best bet is usually to find a sponsoring employer, although this isn't perfect either. At my last job in Ireland we sponsored an American guy but he ended up quitting and taking a new job in the same city, but this also meant he had to start the visa process anew and that he couldn't stay in Ireland during that time. He spent time holidaying/surfing in Portugal, which is easy if you're a single guy with a reasonably nice bank account, but obviously a lot harder if you've got a family (kids tend to do better with some stability).

            Basically, visas and immigrations suck. If you don't feel comfterable in the place you happen to be born and want to settle somewhere else then you've got a rather tiresome road in front of you. At least I'm still lucky on account of being able to move to anywhere within the EU (+ some affiliated countries, like Norway, Iceland, Switzerland), so I've got a lot more choice than most.

            13 votes
          2. [3]
            aphoenix
            Link Parent
            I believe that you once again require a passport for travel between the US and Canada. At the very least, I need a passport to enter the USA from Canada now - a driver's license is not sufficient.

            I believe that you once again require a passport for travel between the US and Canada. At the very least, I need a passport to enter the USA from Canada now - a driver's license is not sufficient.

            9 votes
            1. [2]
              Kenny
              Link Parent
              Yeah, it used to be just a driver's license was sufficient, but they changed to passport years ago.

              Yeah, it used to be just a driver's license was sufficient, but they changed to passport years ago.

              5 votes
              1. Omnicrola
                Link Parent
                Fun story, we went to Canada a few years ago and thought we had the "enhanced" drivers license that allows for easy travel to Canada/Mexico. Got to the border, Canada checkpoint said "yea.......

                Fun story, we went to Canada a few years ago and thought we had the "enhanced" drivers license that allows for easy travel to Canada/Mexico. Got to the border, Canada checkpoint said "yea.... that's not an enhanced license. ...... have a nice day" and waved us through. On the way back, the US border guard looked at it and said "....and they let you through?". Asked if we had anything to declare, we showed them a receipt for all the candy we bought, they rolled their eyes, gave us a pamphlet about the importance of "proper documentation" and waved us through.

                ....Meanwhile our friend 5min behind us with proper passports got his car searched.

                11 votes
    3. [9]
      Eabryt
      Link Parent
      Do you know what country you might want to move to? I've been looking for jobs overseas for awhile, but without much luck.

      Do you know what country you might want to move to?

      I've been looking for jobs overseas for awhile, but without much luck.

      4 votes
      1. [8]
        suspended
        Link Parent
        New Zealand. My wife is a registered nurse so there wouldn't be any trouble for her finding work.

        New Zealand. My wife is a registered nurse so there wouldn't be any trouble for her finding work.

        4 votes
        1. [5]
          Eabryt
          Link Parent
          Same please! I found out recently they actually have a website/portal specifically for people coming for work. I'm a software engineer so I believe I qualified for one of their "in need visas"....

          Same please! I found out recently they actually have a website/portal specifically for people coming for work. I'm a software engineer so I believe I qualified for one of their "in need visas". Unfortunately they've locked pretty much everything down due to COVID.

          4 votes
          1. [5]
            Comment deleted by author
            Link Parent
            1. [2]
              Micycle_the_Bichael
              (edited )
              Link Parent
              I'm not trying to be mean here but you know there are oppressed people and democrats in red states... right? I ask this because I see this and similar rhetoric all the time about how "Democrats...

              I'm not trying to be mean here but you know there are oppressed people and democrats in red states... right? I ask this because I see this and similar rhetoric all the time about how "Democrats should just cut off red states" or look at pandemic numbers and are like "Ha fucking dumb red states" and I just feel like I'm taking crazy pills trying to explain that just because a state is red doesn't mean its mostly white racists. (an argument for a different time is that it shouldn't matter if it is marginalized groups or white racists making up the majority of a state we still shouldn't celebrate these things but for the sake of today's discussion lets skip that and focus on "there are a lot of not trump-supporters living in these places"). Like Kansas City, Missouri can't become #1 in hate crimes against LGBTQ+ people if there aren't any members of the LGBTQ+ community living there. The largest populations of Black people occurs in red states in the south. The people searching that are likely people seeing DT election numbers and going "Holy shit my life is in danger because I'm a minority in a Red State get me the fuck out of here."

              Maybe its because people don't understand how insanely badly gerrymandered red states are? Or how impossible poverty makes it to move out of your hometown, let alone to a different state where you likely wont have a job, money, or a support network? I don't know. Maybe it is because I grew up in a "red" state (yeah yeah yeah "ohio is a flip state". after 2 decades of living there I call bs) and have a large network of friends in the LGBTQ+ community who are unable to leave for various reasons and so I benefit from experiences that make these things feel obvious to me when they aren't.

              11 votes
              1. [2]
                Comment deleted by author
                Link Parent
                1. Micycle_the_Bichael
                  Link Parent
                  I don't know when my edit vs your comment came in, so I am adding this as a second comment. I realized I was exasperated with a different class of a similar thought and tried to update accordingly:

                  I don't know when my edit vs your comment came in, so I am adding this as a second comment. I realized I was exasperated with a different class of a similar thought and tried to update accordingly:

                  I ask this because I see this and similar rhetoric all the time about how "Democrats should just cut off red states" or look at pandemic numbers and are like "Ha fucking dumb red states" and I just feel like I'm taking crazy pills trying to explain that just because a state is red doesn't mean its mostly white racists.

                  3 votes
            2. Eabryt
              Link Parent
              That's actually a really interesting stat! Man, this would be hardest for me for moving right now. I heard some story of a vet who moved to NZ around April or May and she had to quarantine in a...

              That's actually a really interesting stat!

              forced quarantine" (gasp!).

              Man, this would be hardest for me for moving right now. I heard some story of a vet who moved to NZ around April or May and she had to quarantine in a hotel and couldn't leave. I get it, but as someone who has a run streak of over 1400 days and sees my daily run as a great way to de-stress, I'd struggle with sitting in a room doing nothing right now.

              3 votes
        2. [2]
          Omnicrola
          Link Parent
          That's at the top of my list as well, I've heard it's really really difficult to get in though.

          That's at the top of my list as well, I've heard it's really really difficult to get in though.

          1. suspended
            Link Parent
            If we can't get into New Zealand we will head to Chile.

            If we can't get into New Zealand we will head to Chile.

  7. [4]
    spit-evil-olive-tips
    Link
    For a bit of levity: PSA reminding Canadians not to vote in this election
    22 votes
    1. [3]
      RapidEyeMovement
      Link Parent
      Along those lines EMERGENCY VOTING INFORMATIONS FOR WOMEN OF US&A! - Borat
      3 votes
  8. [2]
    Deimos
    Link
    Not significant at all, but kind of funny: Dixville Notch, New Hampshire reported their results at 12:15 AM last night, with Biden/Harris receiving 5 votes, and Trump/Pence 0. This is the first...

    Not significant at all, but kind of funny: Dixville Notch, New Hampshire reported their results at 12:15 AM last night, with Biden/Harris receiving 5 votes, and Trump/Pence 0.

    This is the first time they've had a sweep of the presidential vote since 1960, when Nixon took all 9 votes.

    19 votes
    1. Parliament
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      I love quirky electoral stuff like this. Reminds me of the Caucuses in the Caucasus from earlier in the year. Someone held a satellite caucus in Tbilisi, Georgia and was the first of all the Iowa...

      I love quirky electoral stuff like this. Reminds me of the Caucuses in the Caucasus from earlier in the year. Someone held a satellite caucus in Tbilisi, Georgia and was the first of all the Iowa caucuses.

      6 votes
  9. [2]
    Omnicrola
    Link
    New York Times Election Distractor Small interactive bits you can click through like an interactive slideshow. Some serene nature scenes, factoids, a hot chocolate recipe (with secret...

    New York Times Election Distractor

    Small interactive bits you can click through like an interactive slideshow. Some serene nature scenes, factoids, a hot chocolate recipe (with secret ingredient!), all very calming.

    13 votes
  10. [17]
    AugustusFerdinand
    Link
    Takeaways so far: The polls are, again, useless. This is way too close for the 90/10 Biden/Trump odds given (and the senate races) and since excuses were made over and over again in 2016, this...

    Takeaways so far:

    1. The polls are, again, useless. This is way too close for the 90/10 Biden/Trump odds given (and the senate races) and since excuses were made over and over again in 2016, this needs to be the year the pollsters should be knocked down a peg or ten.

    2. The widely held belief that greater turnout equals greater dem votes needs a close review. At present there are 8M more votes than there were in 2016, they are split 4M each way. There's still time for all the votes to be counted, but a near perfect split in the votes is seriously challenging this notion.

    13 votes
    1. [5]
      Saigot
      Link Parent
      I take issue with your first point. Just because it is likely that Biden will win does not mean it is likely that Biden will win by a large margin. The current result seems right in line with...

      I take issue with your first point. Just because it is likely that Biden will win does not mean it is likely that Biden will win by a large margin. The current result seems right in line with 538's predictions, the only surprise for 538 was Florida which was a tight race to begin with but also has a large impact on the winner. I don't know about the rest of American coverage but a tight election that hinged on pennsylvania is what 538 and my local (Canadian) media predicted.

      There are of course pundits on all sides who say stupid things, they are the ones who are really useless.

      13 votes
      1. [4]
        AugustusFerdinand
        Link Parent
        A chart with all possible outcomes has a result on the chart. Amazing. Are we just going to ignore that the vast majority of the simulations are showing an utter landslide? Except they're wrong...

        A chart with all possible outcomes has a result on the chart. Amazing.

        Are we just going to ignore that the vast majority of the simulations are showing an utter landslide?

        the only surprise for 538 was Florida which was a tight race to begin with but also has a large impact on the winner.

        Except they're wrong about Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, and Pennsylvania along with races much closer in other states than predicted.

        3 votes
        1. Saigot
          Link Parent
          No 538 gave Biden a 29% chance of winning a blowout (defined as double digit margins), you can see it's one of their highlights of their forecast here. Look at the chart I just shared again you...

          Are we just going to ignore that the vast majority of the simulations are showing an utter landslide?

          No 538 gave Biden a 29% chance of winning a blowout (defined as double digit margins), you can see it's one of their highlights of their forecast here. Look at the chart I just shared again you can see the biggest hump, the one that is most likely, was at around 413 electoral votes, a blowout. however, recall that the area under the graph represents the probability that any of those events take place. Which has a higher probability, the area between 200 and 350, or the area between 350 and 500?

          Except they're wrong about Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, and Pennsylvania

          Georgia, Pennsylvania and NC are still very much in play.

          along with races much closer in other states than predicted.

          The votes have not finished counting yet.

          11 votes
        2. [2]
          skybrian
          Link Parent
          They simulated polling errors in both directions, which means at least half of those simulations are even more wrong than the polls. The point of the chart is that the results are still in the fat...

          They simulated polling errors in both directions, which means at least half of those simulations are even more wrong than the polls. The point of the chart is that the results are still in the fat part of the chart. This is a pretty wide range, so it's not hard to hit, but it means they hedged correctly.

          But a chart like that is not that useful, if what you want is certainty.

          9 votes
          1. SantalBlush
            Link Parent
            Exactly. The reason for the large distribution tails is precisely because they are allowing for polling errors. If the polls were considered very reliable, we'd see a much tighter distribution.

            Exactly. The reason for the large distribution tails is precisely because they are allowing for polling errors. If the polls were considered very reliable, we'd see a much tighter distribution.

            6 votes
    2. [3]
      skybrian
      Link Parent
      I think you're right that polls and the probabilities based on them are less useful than they might sometimes seem, if you want to know the future in a time of uncertainty. They don't give us...

      I think you're right that polls and the probabilities based on them are less useful than they might sometimes seem, if you want to know the future in a time of uncertainty. They don't give us that.

      But I'd guess that campaigns will still find them useful sometimes.

      I am not sure how much clearer they could be that things are uncertain. Nate Silver wrote an article just before the election saying "I'm here to remind you that Trump could still win" and I think it still holds up. And it's not like any other method of prediction has a better track record.

      Why does this happen? The only rational thing to do, if you want to know the future but don't have any decisions to make, is to do something else until it's over, and then you'll know. But we aren't good at living with uncertainty and suck at waiting when the stakes are high.

      Pretending you know stuff is a way to avoid a feeling of powerlessness, because not being in control is hard to live with. It seems like a lot of modern pathologies come from not being able to live with the idea that we have very little control over important events, because the world is big and diverse and there are many billions who don't think like us.

      8 votes
      1. [2]
        streblo
        Link Parent
        I don't think the fault lies with the models like 538. In general, there's no way to gauge the accuracy of a model we only get to test with N=1 events -- they do their best to estimate but the...

        I don't think the fault lies with the models like 538. In general, there's no way to gauge the accuracy of a model we only get to test with N=1 events -- they do their best to estimate but the uncertainty is high.

        Polling however, was remarkably precise. If we are sampling 1000s weekly and converge on the same number and miss by 3+ points -- something is broken.

        6 votes
        1. skybrian
          Link Parent
          Yes, though to some extent 538 tries to account for systematic error. You could interpret the 10% chance they had for Trump being about the likelihood of polling error and how that might interact...

          Yes, though to some extent 538 tries to account for systematic error. You could interpret the 10% chance they had for Trump being about the likelihood of polling error and how that might interact with the electoral college.

          But systematic polling error isn't something you have data about since it's different each time. (Assuming the people running polls learn from the mistakes of the previous election.) Having a system only goes so far. It changes what you're guessing about, but there are still guesses as part of the model.

          3 votes
    3. [7]
      streblo
      Link Parent
      I think the hardline MAGA people have basically weaponized polling by refusing to answer or lying about their voter intentions. Pretty sure they can account for this, just takes time for the model...

      I think the hardline MAGA people have basically weaponized polling by refusing to answer or lying about their voter intentions. Pretty sure they can account for this, just takes time for the model to price it in.

      3 votes
      1. [6]
        AugustusFerdinand
        Link Parent
        Without data to back it up, that's just speculation. I find it difficult to believe that there's an organized right wing effort to throw off polling. I'm willing to be proven wrong.

        Without data to back it up, that's just speculation. I find it difficult to believe that there's an organized right wing effort to throw off polling. I'm willing to be proven wrong.

        11 votes
        1. [5]
          streblo
          Link Parent
          Absolutely it's speculation in terms of impact, but it's certainly a popular refrain in Trumpland. Clearly something is causing Trump voters to be routinely under-sampled. The odds of there being...

          Absolutely it's speculation in terms of impact, but it's certainly a popular refrain in Trumpland.

          Clearly something is causing Trump voters to be routinely under-sampled. The odds of there being a "natural" polling miss this consistently in two elections is basically nil -- the samples are off or misrepresenting themselves.

          2 votes
          1. [4]
            viridian
            Link Parent
            What causes someone to be polled in the first place? I don't answer calls from numbers I don't know, and I've never heard of pollsters going door to door. Could be Trump voters are increasingly...

            What causes someone to be polled in the first place? I don't answer calls from numbers I don't know, and I've never heard of pollsters going door to door. Could be Trump voters are increasingly distrustful of numbers they don't know.

            4 votes
            1. [3]
              skybrian
              Link Parent
              Response rate to telephone polls continues to decline and it seems the industry is gradually moving to online polls. They can and do correct for variation in response rates, but that means there...

              Response rate to telephone polls continues to decline and it seems the industry is gradually moving to online polls.

              They can and do correct for variation in response rates, but that means there are judgement calls as part of their systems.

              5 votes
              1. [2]
                viridian
                Link Parent
                I've read that actually can't do a great job accounting for variant swathes in any study that also gets cross-sectional demographic data, because it causes your error bars to explode in magnitude...

                I've read that actually can't do a great job accounting for variant swathes in any study that also gets cross-sectional demographic data, because it causes your error bars to explode in magnitude as you start trying to adjust against various historical reference tables.

                How do online polls work? I def. wouldn't respond to some random poll I received in my inbox either.

                3 votes
                1. skybrian
                  Link Parent
                  In one case, they recruited people via US Mail: Also: https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/u-s-survey-research/american-trends-panel/

                  In one case, they recruited people via US Mail:

                  In August 2018, the ATP switched from telephone to address-based recruitment. Invitations were sent to a random, address-based sample of households selected from the U.S. Postal Service’s Delivery Sequence File. Two additional recruitments were conducted using the same method in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Across these three address-based recruitments, a total of 17,161 adults were invited to join the ATP, of whom 15,134 (88%) agreed to join the panel and completed an initial profile survey. In each household, the adult with the next birthday was asked to go online to complete a survey, at the end of which they were invited to join the panel.

                  Also:

                  Panelists participate via self-administered web surveys. Panelists who do not have internet access at home are provided with a tablet and wireless internet connection. Interviews are conducted in both English and Spanish.

                  https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/u-s-survey-research/american-trends-panel/

                  2 votes
    4. vektor
      Link Parent
      That need not necessarily be at odds. I think it's probably fair to say that among non-voting people, the democrats are at an advantage currently. The republicans are good at mobilizing their...

      The widely held belief that greater turnout equals greater dem votes needs a close review. At present there are 8M more votes than there were in 2016, they are split 4M each way. There's still time for all the votes to be counted, but a near perfect split in the votes is seriously challenging this notion.

      That need not necessarily be at odds. I think it's probably fair to say that among non-voting people, the democrats are at an advantage currently. The republicans are good at mobilizing their base, and their base is very motivated. Democrats might well hold more goodwill among the non-voting population due to them being more reasonable, more status quo; while also being unappealing but the lesser evil to lefties. Those people need to be mobilized and it doesn't always work.

      Which is to say, the numbers this year don't contradict that notion necessarily. It could well be that both parties increased turnout independently. The republicans increased turnout from their base, while democrats can benefit from just mobilizing anyone they can find. Maybe.

      But I also see the problem that polls might be off systematically. A trump supporter seems less likely to admit to being one. This if course makes it hard to study whether the described effect even exists after correcting for that. Which also isn't helped by trump's love for disinfo. With how anti-intellectual his base is, I can well imagine some of trump's voters not participating because the polls in 2016 were so off (lying pollsters blah blah stick it to them blah) or even going so far as to lie about their intentions.

      2 votes
  11. [8]
    spit-evil-olive-tips
    Link
    As I'm typing this (~2am on the west coast): Biden just took the lead in Wisconsin with a big drop of ballots from Milwaukee. Trump leading in Michigan, but with Wayne County (Detroit) only 43%...

    As I'm typing this (~2am on the west coast):

    Biden just took the lead in Wisconsin with a big drop of ballots from Milwaukee.

    Trump leading in Michigan, but with Wayne County (Detroit) only 43% counted.

    Trump leading in Pennsylvania, but again with Philadelphia County only 48% counted.

    Also, in the count that should actually matter, Biden is currently ahead by ~2.2 million in the popular vote. It's still possible Trump could win the Electoral College...but the only way it's realistically possible at this point is another illegitimate win where Trump loses the popular vote and only wins swing states because of voter suppression & disenfranchisement.

    12 votes
    1. [3]
      vektor
      Link Parent
      Trump has also declared himself the winner and demanded counting be stopped. Fuck that guy. I hope he gets kicked out of the WH and then dies in prison, I'm about done hearing him talk. If only...

      Trump has also declared himself the winner and demanded counting be stopped. Fuck that guy. I hope he gets kicked out of the WH and then dies in prison, I'm about done hearing him talk. If only the US constitution had a section designed to stop tyranny...

      11 votes
      1. [2]
        teaearlgraycold
        Link Parent
        If only this wasn't exactly what the Republican party and its voters want

        If only the US constitution had a section designed to stop tyranny

        If only this wasn't exactly what the Republican party and its voters want

        4 votes
        1. vektor
          Link Parent
          If you are referring specifically to the second amendment, let it be known that I was being extra sarcastic and did in fact refer to the entire constitution as designed to stop tyranny.

          If you are referring specifically to the second amendment, let it be known that I was being extra sarcastic and did in fact refer to the entire constitution as designed to stop tyranny.

          6 votes
    2. [4]
      hungariantoast
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      Biden now holds slim leads in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. If he holds these states and Trump takes North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, Biden still wins. But those states are still very...

      Biden now holds slim leads in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

      If he holds these states and Trump takes North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, Biden still wins.

      But those states are still very much in play as mail ballots finish being counted...

      5 votes
      1. [3]
        hungariantoast
        Link Parent
        https://nitter.net/shaqbrewster/status/1324025221771337729 Wisconsin's votes are apparently done being counted... Biden leads by almost twenty-one thousand

        https://nitter.net/shaqbrewster/status/1324025221771337729

        Wisconsin's votes are apparently done being counted...

        Biden leads by almost twenty-one thousand

        5 votes
        1. [2]
          hungariantoast
          Link Parent
          https://nitter.net/Julie_Vit/status/1324028329998077952 Georgia apparently wants to finish counting votes today

          https://nitter.net/Julie_Vit/status/1324028329998077952

          Georgia apparently wants to finish counting votes today

          3 votes
          1. hungariantoast
            (edited )
            Link Parent
            Associated Press called Wisconsin for Biden: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-wisconsin-president.html I also just want to point out that Georgia, North...

            Associated Press called Wisconsin for Biden:

            https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-wisconsin-president.html

            I also just want to point out that Georgia, North Carolina, or Pennsylvania can still flip blue and Trump's margins there have been slowly shrinking all day. If just one of these states flips, and Biden holds Michigan (likely), Nevada could eject into space and Biden would still win.

            3 votes
  12. [9]
    hungariantoast
    (edited )
    Link
    So I just discovered The Guardian's live election coverage page, and they have a nice table of the votes and margins for each of the remaining states:...

    So I just discovered The Guardian's live election coverage page, and they have a nice table of the votes and margins for each of the remaining states:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/03/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat#gv-remaining

    12 votes
    1. [8]
      Parliament
      Link Parent
      Thanks for linking this. It's the best dashboard I've seen with key info.

      Thanks for linking this. It's the best dashboard I've seen with key info.

      5 votes
      1. [7]
        hungariantoast
        (edited )
        Link Parent
        I've also been snipping screenshots of that table each time I notice it changes. I have about fifteen shots of it so far, from this morning to a few minutes ago. It's the best I could do to record...

        I've also been snipping screenshots of that table each time I notice it changes. I have about fifteen shots of it so far, from this morning to a few minutes ago. It's the best I could do to record a timeline of the margins and compare them throughout the day.

        8 votes
        1. Omnicrola
          Link Parent
          Appreciate this. Would make a great GIF with timestamps when it's all done.

          Appreciate this. Would make a great GIF with timestamps when it's all done.

          2 votes
        2. [5]
          AugustusFerdinand
          Link Parent
          Something off in the Pennsylvania numbers. 2M votes counted, Trump's lead stays at 400k.

          Something off in the Pennsylvania numbers. 2M votes counted, Trump's lead stays at 400k.

          1 vote
          1. [4]
            hungariantoast
            (edited )
            Link Parent
            His lead is dropping rapidly. Just went from 374K to 330K to 314K

            His lead is dropping rapidly. Just went from 374K to 330K to 314K

            1 vote
            1. [2]
              hungariantoast
              (edited )
              Link Parent
              Pennsylvania now down to 201,393 votes for Trump. Reeeeeally hoping it flips by a decent amount.

              Pennsylvania now down to 239,587 201,393 votes for Trump. Reeeeeally hoping it flips by a decent amount.

              4 votes
              1. AugustusFerdinand
                Link Parent
                Just jumping on this morning. It's now at a 135,704 lead.

                Just jumping on this morning. It's now at a 135,704 lead.

                2 votes
            2. AugustusFerdinand
              Link Parent
              Yeah, I see that now as it's updating. Seems like the "Votes left to count" doesn't sync with the margin column as the former has been pretty steady (just dropped another 100k), while the margin...

              Yeah, I see that now as it's updating. Seems like the "Votes left to count" doesn't sync with the margin column as the former has been pretty steady (just dropped another 100k), while the margin has been dropping regularly.

              3 votes
  13. viridian
    Link
    Having a virtual poll viewing party with a bunch of friends tomorrow, should be a lot of fun. We've got Biden voters, Trump voters, someone voting downballot but not for president, and at least...

    Having a virtual poll viewing party with a bunch of friends tomorrow, should be a lot of fun. We've got Biden voters, Trump voters, someone voting downballot but not for president, and at least one third party voter, so it should be a ball.

    On top of that we are will be playing Call of Cthulhu, using the Cthulhu for president set: https://www.chaosium.com/cthulhu-for-president-the-game-pdf/

    11 votes
  14. kfwyre
    Link
    Got sent this tweet by someone today, and while it's funny on its own, it did make me genuinely thankful for all the people here on Tildes from Canada and elsewhere who are sources of support for...

    Got sent this tweet by someone today, and while it's funny on its own, it did make me genuinely thankful for all the people here on Tildes from Canada and elsewhere who are sources of support for us here in the US. Thanks for being friendly neighbo(u)rs, caring about our issues, and treating us with kindness -- especially when we do things that make us undeserving of that kindness. I genuinely hope that my country can do better by everyone in the future.

    11 votes
  15. gpl
    Link
    With AZ and NE-2 looking likely to go to Biden, I am very optimistic that the Democrats will pull it off. That being said, that it isn't a landslide is hugely disappointing, and we may not get the...

    With AZ and NE-2 looking likely to go to Biden, I am very optimistic that the Democrats will pull it off. That being said, that it isn't a landslide is hugely disappointing, and we may not get the Senate.

    10 votes
  16. [2]
    sron
    Link
    I've done a quick CTRL-F and I can't find a question like this here, so here it is: As someone from the UK not very familiar with US politics, how is it that either candidate can decide to...

    I've done a quick CTRL-F and I can't find a question like this here, so here it is:

    As someone from the UK not very familiar with US politics, how is it that either candidate can decide to challenge the result in the supreme court? From what I've seen about 2000 I'm guessing it is challenging the legitimacy of how some ballots were cast or counted to swing the balance nationally slightly in their favour? I know Trump wants to do this but what is Biden's plan? He says he's got lawyers ready too.

    9 votes
    1. Omnicrola
      Link Parent
      Ugh. There's several possibilities. The most prominent being what you mentioned, a situation resembling what happened in 2000 in Florida. Basically, the margin of victory was so close (only a few...

      Ugh. There's several possibilities. The most prominent being what you mentioned, a situation resembling what happened in 2000 in Florida. Basically, the margin of victory was so close (only a few thousand), recounts where required, and then a court battle started about the legitimacy of those recounts that was eventually appealed all the way up to the US supreme court. The decision of the court is what decided the election and made Bush the winner.

      Both candidates have a literal army of lawyers ready to file paperwork to challenge an election result in all 50 states, or to counter the challenge of their opponent. The outcome could be either a recount of a particular local election, or declaring some number of ballots as invalid due to some procedural reason. The pandemic has caused dramatic change in the way that everyone conducts their local election, so there are a whole bunch of new opportunities to file legal challenges to try and invalidate ballots in places where an opponent is winning.

      And the overarching thought of all this, is that Trump has been able to appoint a total of 3 of the Supreme Court justices during his term, all of which area conservative, and all of which where involved in the Republican efforts of the 2000 election dispute. So their there's some very good reasons to think that they may have some bias on the matter. In particular when they issue opinions like this one, echoing a lot of the president's bullshit about not counting votes after election day.

      12 votes
  17. [5]
    Parliament
    Link
    I'm massively disappointed in the Senate but thankful we're just going to beat Trump. Trying to count what blessings we have. This is something to celebrate before gearing up for the next election...

    I'm massively disappointed in the Senate but thankful we're just going to beat Trump. Trying to count what blessings we have. This is something to celebrate before gearing up for the next election (run-off for GA senate) even if it has been closer than we expected and not the strong rebuke we hoped for.

    9 votes
    1. [4]
      andre
      Link Parent
      Beating Trump is certainly something to be grateful for, but the margins are embarrassing. The Senate results are even worse - effectively cements nothing getting done for at least two more years.

      Beating Trump is certainly something to be grateful for, but the margins are embarrassing. The Senate results are even worse - effectively cements nothing getting done for at least two more years.

      14 votes
      1. [2]
        viridian
        Link Parent
        2022 is like 2016, mostly Dem senate seats up for grabs. 2024 is when you have mostly GOP seats in play.

        2022 is like 2016, mostly Dem senate seats up for grabs. 2024 is when you have mostly GOP seats in play.

        9 votes
        1. andre
          Link Parent
          Oh, great, four years of congressional bullshit. I can already see the 2024 ads: "Barron Trump 2024 - vote for me, Biden got NOTHING done".

          Oh, great, four years of congressional bullshit. I can already see the 2024 ads: "Barron Trump 2024 - vote for me, Biden got NOTHING done".

          7 votes
      2. Parliament
        Link Parent
        Like I said, I'm trying to count what blessings we have. The margin is incredibly upsetting, but I'm taking it as motivation rather than being discouraged. We have a run-off in GA to win.

        Like I said, I'm trying to count what blessings we have. The margin is incredibly upsetting, but I'm taking it as motivation rather than being discouraged. We have a run-off in GA to win.

        8 votes
  18. [2]
    kfwyre
    Link
    Trump is currently calling states for himself and pushing voting fraud conspiracies on Twitter.

    Trump is currently calling states for himself and pushing voting fraud conspiracies on Twitter.

    9 votes
    1. cfabbro
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      If Trump loses (which is thankfully looking increasingly likely), I seriously hope twitter finally just straight up bans him. It's unlikely they will, I know... but goddamn would that ever feel...

      If Trump loses (which is thankfully looking increasingly likely), I seriously hope twitter finally just straight up bans him. It's unlikely they will, I know... but goddamn would that ever feel incredibly satisfying and cathartic.

      10 votes
  19. Deimos
    Link
    This topic is almost 3 days old now and getting a little cumbersome to keep continuing. I'm going to start a new one and will move some of the most recent top-level comments and replies from this...

    This topic is almost 3 days old now and getting a little cumbersome to keep continuing. I'm going to start a new one and will move some of the most recent top-level comments and replies from this thread into that one. Please hold.

    9 votes
  20. [4]
    RapidEyeMovement
    (edited )
    Link
    FBI IS INVESTIGATING REPORTS OF ROBOCALLS ACROSS COUNTRY ATTEMPTING TO SUPPRESS VOTE - HOMELAND SECURITY OFFICIAL U.S. FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION'S ENFORCEMENT BUREAU IS AWARE OF REPORTS OF...
    8 votes
    1. [3]
      MonkeyPants
      Link Parent
      Michigan officials warn of robocalls meant to mislead residents in Flint.
      8 votes
      1. Omnicrola
        Link Parent
        Fucking hell. Stop picking on Flint you assholes.

        Fucking hell. Stop picking on Flint you assholes.

        12 votes
      2. teaearlgraycold
        Link Parent

        The robocall complaint came a day after Michigan’s attorney general, Dana Nessel, warned of text messages being sent to voters in Dearborn that warned of “ballot sensor” malfunctions in the polling places there.

        The message, which is being investigated by the state Attorney General’s office, told voters that if they wanted their preferred presidential candidate vote to count, then they really had to mark the ballot for the other candidate.

        7 votes
  21. RapidEyeMovement
    (edited )
    Link
    PSA before tonight: CME changed futures limit rules. There's now a "dynamic circuit breaker" if stocks move 3.5% within an hour. The hard limit stands at 7% (up from 5% before) *Reminder: Last...
    8 votes
  22. [4]
    Parliament
    Link
    Let's remind ourselves that the government hasn't done a single thing to seriously mitigate election interference while Trump has been president, and Trump has exploited or weaponized the office...

    Let's remind ourselves that the government hasn't done a single thing to seriously mitigate election interference while Trump has been president, and Trump has exploited or weaponized the office for political gain at every conceivable opportunity. We live in an era of extreme misinformation through social media with a cult figure president who can effectively rally an already rabid base. That situation has been festering for 4 years. It is impossible to quantify, but the competitiveness of this presidential race may be a reflection of those factors as much as any failure in campaign strategy.

    8 votes
    1. Parliament
      Link Parent
      Also, let's not forget the historical reliability of US voters supporting an incumbent, even an unpopular one.

      Also, let's not forget the historical reliability of US voters supporting an incumbent, even an unpopular one.

      8 votes
    2. [2]
      skybrian
      Link Parent
      What do you mean they did nothing? There are pretty big differences in voting procedures this year. I can't find the numbers but I think it's about 100 million voting early or via absentee ballot?...

      What do you mean they did nothing? There are pretty big differences in voting procedures this year. I can't find the numbers but I think it's about 100 million voting early or via absentee ballot?

      Also, it seems like a lot of attempts at invalidating votes or intimidating voters failed, since turnout is at a record high.

      4 votes
      1. Parliament
        Link Parent
        Should have clarified that I was referring to this admin. I know states have taken funding and updated Election Day procedures. Nothing has been done to prevent the spread of misinformation on...

        Should have clarified that I was referring to this admin. I know states have taken funding and updated Election Day procedures.

        Nothing has been done to prevent the spread of misinformation on social media that influences how people think, feel, and vote. Trump has also repeatedly used government for political gain - illegal rallies on the White House lawn for campaign PR, enlisting the troops as a prop in military parades or at the border, a laundry list of Hatch Act violations, fabricating entire conspiracy theories for cable news regurgitation, etc. All of these abuses of the system are having some impact on the election results, and they've only gotten worse in the last 4 years.

        6 votes
  23. [3]
    Kuromantis
    (edited )
    Link
    From 538 in their live blog: The difference between this comment and the expected votes% from AP is admittedly a bit weird. EDIT: They've made a new post with a bit more guessing where those...

    From 538 in their live blog:

    What’s Left To Count

    Nathaniel Rakich, Nov. 4, 3:22 PM

    Here’s the latest picture in every undecided state:


    Arizona: Biden currently leads here by 93,518 votes, but there are around 600,000 left to count, according to the Arizona Republic. About 450,000 of those are in Maricopa County, which says it will release two batches of results tonight: one at 9 p.m. Eastern and one sometime after 12:30 a.m. Eastern. Some outlets, such as Fox News, have already projected Arizona for Biden, but our colleagues at ABC News have not yet done so.


    Nevada: Biden leads here by only 7,647 votes, and an estimated 14 percent of the vote is still uncounted. However, those votes will all be either late-arriving mail ballots or provisional ballots, which should lean Democratic. We won’t be getting another update here until noon Eastern on Thursday.


    Wisconsin: The Wisconsin Elections Commission has announced that all votes in the state are counted, and Biden has a 20,510-vote lead in the state. The Trump campaign has requested a recount, but that has not stopped some media outlets like the AP to project Wisconsin for Biden. ABC News has not issued a projection here, as the decision desk won’t project races that are within 1 percentage point.


    Georgia: Trump currently leads here by 79,509 votes, and the secretary of state said during an 11:30 a.m. press conference that there were still 200,000 mail-in votes and 50,000 early votes to count, mostly in Democratic-leaning counties like Fulton and DeKalb. Fulton is hoping to finish all its counting by 9 p.m. tonight.


    Michigan: Biden currently leads here by just 37,350 votes, but it will be difficult for Trump to close that gap because most of the uncounted ballots are in very blue Wayne County (Detroit). At 2 p.m. Eastern, Wayne said it had only 16,000 ballots left to count, which it plans to complete by 6 p.m.


    Pennsylvania: Trump currently leads Biden 53 percent to 45 percent in Pennsylvania, but this one is a long way from over — 19 percent of expected votes are still uncounted, most of them Democratic-leaning mail ballots. Counties are working around the clock to finish counting, but we’re looking at Thursday or Friday before results are semi-final.


    North Carolina: North Carolina has counted every ballot it had in its possession as of yesterday, and Trump leads by 76,737 votes among them. However, the state has announced that about 117,000 mail-in ballots are potentially outstanding, plus an unknown number of provisional ballots. Mail-in ballots have until Nov. 12 to arrive, and only at that point will more results be released.

    The difference between this comment and the expected votes% from AP is admittedly a bit weird.

    EDIT: They've made a new post with a bit more guessing where those uncounted votes will go.

    8 votes
    1. [2]
      Kuromantis
      Link Parent
      (I'm gonna make this an informal thread for stuff from the 538 live blog I or anyone else find interesting.) ...Where is this coming from? I'm not finding anything related to this. Currently...

      (I'm gonna make this an informal thread for stuff from the 538 live blog I or anyone else find interesting.)


      The Republican in the race, incumbent Sen. David Perdue, is clinging to an outright victory by fewer than 2,000 votes, and as more absentee ballots are counted it’s likely he’ll drop below that mark.

      ...Where is this coming from? I'm not finding anything related to this. Currently NPR/AP puts him at over 100,000 votes ahead.

      1 vote
      1. Kuromantis
        (edited )
        Link Parent
        ...Oh, so that's where it comes from. ...So it's not that the Democrat is about to get more votes the Republican incumbent, its that the that incumbent has just fallen under a simple majority....

        ...Oh, so that's where it comes from.

        The announcement from Fulton County, Georgia, that Geoffrey mentioned about 20 minutes ago also has implications for the state’s regular Senate race. Perdue is now at 49.997 percent of the vote, per the secretary of state’s website, meaning this race is now in runoff territory. (And it’s unlikely Perdue will gain from here, given the types of ballots — absentee ballots and ballots from Democratic-leaning counties — that remain uncounted.)

        ...So it's not that the Democrat is about to get more votes the Republican incumbent, its that the that incumbent has just fallen under a simple majority.

        Anyway, the implications of this are actually pretty big. Quoting 538 about 80 minutes earlier:

        Depending on the presidential and U.S. Senate results in states such as Arizona, control of the Senate may come down to two January runoffs in Georgia. In the state’s regular contest, Republican Sen. David Perdue is right at 50.0 percent, but may finish below a majority against Democrat Jon Ossoff as the final Democratic-leaning mail and provisional ballots are counted. If so, they will join the special election runoff between Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Democrat Raphael Warnock.

        1 vote
  24. [2]
    Kuromantis
    (edited )
    Link
    Democratic Senator Gary Peters has been reelected by a margin of 60,000 votes That's a really tight reelection. The only way for Democrats to take the Senate and get the trifecta is to win both NC...

    Democratic Senator Gary Peters has been reelected by a margin of 60,000 votes

    That's a really tight reelection. The only way for Democrats to take the Senate and get the trifecta is to win both NC (47%D, 49%R, 93% estimated reporting) and the Georgia runoff election.

    Edit: his lead is now up to 88k votes.

    Edit: or push the other Republican incumbent below 50% and subject him to a (apparently winnable) runoff too. That'll do too, I guess.

    8 votes
    1. Omnicrola
      Link Parent
      Very relieved about this one, he was down a few percent earlier in the day, glad the blue shift carried him. Still annoyed that both that race and the presidential race where so close. Was really...

      Very relieved about this one, he was down a few percent earlier in the day, glad the blue shift carried him. Still annoyed that both that race and the presidential race where so close. Was really hoping for a blowout, between COVID, Trump fighting with Whitmer, and the kidnapping thing.

      8 votes
  25. [10]
    Autoxidation
    Link
    Share your prediction maps here! Here's mine: https://www.270towin.com/maps/pAd2L Why I think this: I think Florida's voter suppression tactics will be successful and the state will be very close,...

    Share your prediction maps here!

    Here's mine: https://www.270towin.com/maps/pAd2L

    Why I think this: I think Florida's voter suppression tactics will be successful and the state will be very close, but still go to Trump. Both Georgia and Texas are seeing historic turnout, which I think will lead to slight blue wins there. I'm not sold on Ohio or Iowa going blue.

    7 votes
    1. [3]
      xnaas
      Link Parent
      As a lifelong Texan...I just don't see Texas going blue. I think it will be very, very close, but we're still gonna be red.

      As a lifelong Texan...I just don't see Texas going blue. I think it will be very, very close, but we're still gonna be red.

      6 votes
      1. AugustusFerdinand
        Link Parent
        Same on both counts. It's not a battleground/swing state until it can be proven to actually turn blue, and people have been saying it'll turn purple for decades and yet Dems never get out of the...

        As a lifelong Texan...I just don't see Texas going blue.

        Same on both counts.

        It's not a battleground/swing state until it can be proven to actually turn blue, and people have been saying it'll turn purple for decades and yet Dems never get out of the low 40% of the vote.

        Year % Red
        2016 52.1
        2012 57.2
        2008 55.5
        2004 61.1
        2000 59.3
        1996 48.9*
        1992 41*
        1988 56
        1984 63.6
        1980 55.3

        Repubs tend to be closer in first term, spike in second term (Bush 1.0 being the exception), the only year they see big drops are when there's a legitimate threat from a 3rd party/candidate (*above are Perot years). Dems are always low-40% unless they're in the 30% range.

        I want it to happen as much as the rest of us down here, but I'm also not delusional. "Texas will turn purple this year" is a mantra echoed every single election cycle.

        5 votes
      2. Autoxidation
        Link Parent
        I don't know... Maybe! I'm hopeful. But more Texans have voted early than voted in all of 2016!

        I don't know... Maybe! I'm hopeful. But more Texans have voted early than voted in all of 2016!

        4 votes
    2. [6]
      petrichor
      Link Parent
      Here's my "most likely" scenario. FiveThirtyEight also has a similar visualizer that I've been playing around with that does a bit more on the probability side, with predictions that update to...

      Here's my "most likely" scenario.

      FiveThirtyEight also has a similar visualizer that I've been playing around with that does a bit more on the probability side, with predictions that update to account for which way you predict individual states to go (equivalent map).

      Out of FiveThirtyEight's "key states" I really don't think Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, or Wisconsin are going to go red, or Ohio and Texas go blue. I can see Biden loosing Arizona, North Carolina, Florida but still winning with Pennsylvania.

      4 votes
      1. [5]
        AugustusFerdinand
        Link Parent
        As someone not up on Arizona politics, can anyone tell me why they're seen as a swing state and blue in both your and @autoxidation's map (along with the predictions)? I didn't check actual voting...

        As someone not up on Arizona politics, can anyone tell me why they're seen as a swing state and blue in both your and @autoxidation's map (along with the predictions)? I didn't check actual voting counts, but looked at the presidential election maps all the way back to 1980 and it's always red.

        2 votes
        1. Omnicrola
          Link Parent
          I lived in AZ for a decade. The historical reason for red is that there is a very high percentage of elderly people there, who commonly go there to retire because of the climate. Sun City if...

          I lived in AZ for a decade. The historical reason for red is that there is a very high percentage of elderly people there, who commonly go there to retire because of the climate. Sun City if you're middle class, Scottsdale if you're rich.

          However the percentage of the the state that identifies as Hispanic has been steadily increasing for several decades. AZ became a minority-majority state somewhere around 2015. However isn't as clear-cut as Hispanic==Democrat, as a lot of Hispanics are deeply religious (specifically Catholic) which means that while they have a vested interest in the immigration reforms that the Democrats offer, they also have a few key social views in common with the Republican platform. 538 also has some analysis on this topic that points out some additional factors including the rapid growth of urban vs rural populations (it's a state with a lot of empty uninhabited desert, so people cluster in cities a lot).

          10 votes
        2. [2]
          skybrian
          Link Parent
          Because the polls say so. At this point 538 is basing their predictions entirely on polls, not history. (But really, they are saying it’s very close.)...

          Because the polls say so. At this point 538 is basing their predictions entirely on polls, not history. (But really, they are saying it’s very close.)

          https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/arizona/

          2 votes
          1. AugustusFerdinand
            Link Parent
            And yet one side always gets 44.7% (± 0.4%) so it seems like the polls are wrong, again.

            And yet one side always gets 44.7% (± 0.4%) so it seems like the polls are wrong, again.

        3. petrichor
          Link Parent
          They actually voted blue in Clinton's reelection of 1996, but that's probably the state I'm least sure about.

          They actually voted blue in Clinton's reelection of 1996, but that's probably the state I'm least sure about.

  26. [13]
    seizethegoddamngap
    Link
    Biden is now within 40,000 votes in Georgia with 95% reporting, and mainly very blue votes left to count.

    Biden is now within 40,000 votes in Georgia with 95% reporting, and mainly very blue votes left to count.

    7 votes
    1. [12]
      seizethegoddamngap
      Link Parent
      Now within 35,000.

      Now within 35,000.

      7 votes
      1. [4]
        Deimos
        (edited )
        Link Parent
        The election director for Fulton County (which covers a lot of Atlanta and has the highest number of votes in the state) told CNN he expects to report all outstanding mail votes between midnight...

        The election director for Fulton County (which covers a lot of Atlanta and has the highest number of votes in the state) told CNN he expects to report all outstanding mail votes between midnight and 3 AM.

        So far the votes in that county are 72.4% Biden and 26.5% Trump, it's extremely tilted and could close almost all of that gap on its own.

        According to the NYT's "Paths to Victory" thing (which I think is neat), if Biden wins Georgia it's no longer possible for Trump to win. Even if he wins every other outstanding state, it only results in a tie.

        9 votes
        1. [3]
          spit-evil-olive-tips
          Link Parent
          The most useful summary I've found at this point is the matrix of which networks have called which states that @kfwyre linked to last night. Consensus of states called so far is 253 Biden - 214...

          The most useful summary I've found at this point is the matrix of which networks have called which states that @kfwyre linked to last night.

          Consensus of states called so far is 253 Biden - 214 Trump, with 71 left to call. Biden needs 17 to win (and 16 to tie).

          PA, with 20 electoral votes, would end it single-handedly. Georgia with 16 would force at least a tie or a Biden win.

          From there, the remaining states are NC with 15, Arizona with 11, and Nevada with 6.

          So as it stands now, Trump can only win by winning all remaining states, except he could lose one of (NC, AZ, NV).

          And I feel compelled to mention this every time I talk about the electoral college, the current popular vote total according to NYT is 50.4% Biden / 47.9% Trump. Biden is up by 3.6 million votes, compared to Hillary Clinton's 2.8 million popular vote victory. Biden already won, we're just waiting to figure out if our stupid electoral system is going to admit it or not.

          10 votes
          1. Deimos
            Link Parent
            A Jason Schreier tweet from earlier today:

            A Jason Schreier tweet from earlier today:

            You know it's a healthy democracy when one candidate is beating the other by 2.6 million votes but nobody knows who's going to win because a pipe burst in Georgia and a Wisconsin printer ran out of ink

            16 votes
          2. kfwyre
            Link Parent
            Yeah, it's absolutely infuriating that a clear lead of 3.6 million votes is currently playing out like a photo finish.

            Yeah, it's absolutely infuriating that a clear lead of 3.6 million votes is currently playing out like a photo finish.

            6 votes
      2. [7]
        emdash
        Link Parent
        Down to 23,000 now with 95% counted. Super close.

        Down to 23,000 now with 95% counted. Super close.

        3 votes
        1. [6]
          cfabbro
          Link Parent
          Down to 18k with 96% counted as of 5min ago (6:30am ET), with the majority of uncounted votes being in the greater Atlanta area, which is skewing Biden by a pretty large margin. So it's definitely...

          Down to 18k with 96% counted as of 5min ago (6:30am ET), with the majority of uncounted votes being in the greater Atlanta area, which is skewing Biden by a pretty large margin. So it's definitely possible Biden may yet eke this one out by the time the counting is actually done.

          1 vote
          1. [5]
            joelthelion
            Link Parent
            Possible, but is it likely? Is anyone doing projections? At this time the math should be fairly simple, no?

            Possible, but is it likely? Is anyone doing projections? At this time the math should be fairly simple, no?

            2 votes
            1. [4]
              cfabbro
              (edited )
              Link Parent
              The CNN analysts are predicting Biden will probably take Georgia by the time the count is done there, but there is also a distinct risk he might lose Arizona at the same time since the latest...

              The CNN analysts are predicting Biden will probably take Georgia by the time the count is done there, but there is also a distinct risk he might lose Arizona at the same time since the latest counts from there that were released at 2:55am were slightly in Trump's favor (59%), which decreased Biden's lead there. They said PA, NV and NC were all too close to call right now as well, so it's basically still a bit of a toss up who will actually win in the end. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

              4 votes
              1. [3]
                joelthelion
                Link Parent
                Isn't Georgia (or PA, or NV+AZ) enough for Biden to win at this stage? Georgia has 16 EVs, so that brings the total to 269 which I think is a tie that Biden wins given he won the house.

                Isn't Georgia (or PA, or NV+AZ) enough for Biden to win at this stage? Georgia has 16 EVs, so that brings the total to 269 which I think is a tie that Biden wins given he won the house.

                3 votes
                1. cfabbro
                  (edited )
                  Link Parent
                  Yeah, winning PA would be enough for Biden to definitively win, but none of the others would be enough on their own. Biden is currently at 253 electoral votes, and Trump is at 213, with 270...

                  Yeah, winning PA would be enough for Biden to definitively win, but none of the others would be enough on their own. Biden is currently at 253 electoral votes, and Trump is at 213, with 270 required for the definitive win. So Biden needs to either win PA (which is worth 20 electoral votes), or any 2 of the other remaining States to achieve that. But Trump needs 4/5 of the remaining States to get there.

                  p.s. https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president if you want to look at the numbers yourself

                  p.p.s I just looked it up to make absolutely sure first, and it looks like you're also correct about what would happen in the case of a tie; it would go to the House to decide. So if Biden prevails in Georgia but no other remaining States that would still be enough for him to win. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election

                  In the United States, a contingent election is the procedure used to elect the President or Vice President in the event that no candidate for one or both of these offices wins an absolute majority of votes in the Electoral College. A presidential contingent election is decided by a vote of the United States House of Representatives, while a vice-presidential contingent election is decided by a vote of the United States Senate.

                  3 votes
                2. moocow1452
                  Link Parent
                  The whole conversation started based on the idea that one of the electorate goes rogue, and because of the nature of the house voting as states, it's entirely possible that this year hits peak...

                  The whole conversation started based on the idea that one of the electorate goes rogue, and because of the nature of the house voting as states, it's entirely possible that this year hits peak chaos and the house vote goes to Trump.

                  3 votes
  27. [40]
    nulledzero
    Link
    I am pretty over this year and all the politics that came from it. I'm in my mid 20s and view myself as someone in the middle of politics. Fiscally I am conservative, don't raise my taxes, don't...

    I am pretty over this year and all the politics that came from it. I'm in my mid 20s and view myself as someone in the middle of politics. Fiscally I am conservative, don't raise my taxes, don't take my rights, and the law should apply to every single American citizen (that also included those in power like politicians. Qualified immunity is fcking stupid). Socially I lean to the left. I think investing into communities to help them grow infrastructure and community projects will benefit many generations.

    Politicians have this narrow mindset that they need to make change while in office without looking at the future. Yes we should address immediate concerns but we should also plan for 10, 25, 50, and 100 years down the road. Reminds me of a quote "wise men plants tress whose shade they know they will never enjoy".

    In regards to Trump/Pence, I agree with some of Trumps policies. I don't like him as a person but I cannot argue that he has done some good. He's done a lot of bad but in the current world we live in you need to take the few wins you can get.

    Biden/Harris, I am not a fan of Biden or Harris. I don't agree with Biden's Vice Presidential nominee. Kamala is a terrible human being that incarcerated thousands of minorities for low level drug crimes. I am absolutely not voting for Biden because of how much suffering Harris brought to the people of San Francisco.

    Don't get me started on the people we have in office. Nany Pelosi and Diane Fienstein are terrible politicians for California. Pelosi has ruled over San Francisco for decades and has only made the city worse.

    The way I see things is that most Republicans will lie, cheat, and steal to accumulate more power and wealth. They are open about it and are not afraid to show it.

    Most democrats, will take away constitutional rights from the people in the name of safety and security. They show off like they are a party for the people but they are the same as Republicans they just refuse to admit it.

    I hope that once the baby boomer politicians leave office a third party will gain traction in Congress. I really hope an middle party gains popularity. A party that does not impede on your rights, doesn't raise taxes, is fiscally responsible, will stand up to bad practices, and will only flex their power when it is absolutely necessary.

    One final thought, we need to revoke the power of the Executive branch again and the Supreme Court. The only people that should have the power to make or change laws should be Congress.
    The supreme court should only interpret the Law.

    Ex: Roe vs Wade, lets say SCOTUS look at it again and decide to remove or rule against it. That ruling should not change the law. It should mean that it gets move to the house who vote and then it moves to the Senate and finally the resolute desk.

    I hate how the SCOTUS and POTUS are given so much power in this country.

    Ok rant over.

    6 votes
    1. [5]
      Parliament
      Link Parent
      ... What do you think funds investment in communities?

      Fiscally I am conservative, don't raise my taxes

      ...

      I think investing into communities to help them grow infrastructure and community projects will benefit many generations.

      What do you think funds investment in communities?

      22 votes
      1. [3]
        j3n
        Link Parent
        It's perfectly reasonable to say that the government already takes in plenty of money, but that said money is misallocated.

        It's perfectly reasonable to say that the government already takes in plenty of money, but that said money is misallocated.

        16 votes
        1. RNG
          Link Parent
          I don't think that makes one fiscally conservative, if we mean conservative to indicated right-wing views on the economy. Many liberals and leftists agree that funds are misallocated: defense...

          I don't think that makes one fiscally conservative, if we mean conservative to indicated right-wing views on the economy. Many liberals and leftists agree that funds are misallocated: defense funds should be reallocated to social safety net programs.

          If we mean "conservative" to mean budget-conscious, I don't think the GOP fits this bill either; when the GOP controls Congress and the Presidency, there has historically been unchallenged runaway spending, largely on blank checks for the defense industry.

          9 votes
      2. nulledzero
        Link Parent
        Proper state, county, and local budgeting. Not allowing police departments to buy hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars for weapons of war. California is a great example, we are what...

        Proper state, county, and local budgeting. Not allowing police departments to buy hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars for weapons of war.

        California is a great example, we are what the 7th largest economy in the world yet we are always throwing money away.

        2 votes
    2. [3]
      MimicSquid
      Link Parent
      Can I ask what you've heard of Pelosi doing to rule over or hurt San Francisco? I live nearby and it's not at all part of the local narrative that she has any particular pull or pet projects for...

      Can I ask what you've heard of Pelosi doing to rule over or hurt San Francisco? I live nearby and it's not at all part of the local narrative that she has any particular pull or pet projects for the area.

      17 votes
      1. [2]
        nulledzero
        Link Parent
        She does not use her position to her advantage she lets Mitch walk all over her. She leads the house of representatives that held a majority in the house for four years. She also voted for bills...

        She does not use her position to her advantage she lets Mitch walk all over her.

        She leads the house of representatives that held a majority in the house for four years.
        She also voted for bills that I am against. Ex S. 139: Rapid DNA Act of 2017 which expanded the use of DNA to law enforcement. I value my privacy in the real world and virtually.

        Any person that says yes to taking away the privacy of american citizens is bad news for me.

        3 votes
        1. MimicSquid
          Link Parent
          How does that translate to her ruling over San Francisco and making the city worse? I agree that privacy is valuable, but what are some tangible examples of her rule and degradation of San...

          How does that translate to her ruling over San Francisco and making the city worse? I agree that privacy is valuable, but what are some tangible examples of her rule and degradation of San Francisco in particular?

          8 votes
    3. [2]
      andre
      Link Parent
      Out of curiosity, do you make more than $400k/year?

      don't raise my taxes

      Out of curiosity, do you make more than $400k/year?

      13 votes
      1. nulledzero
        Link Parent
        I make just south of that. My issue on taxes is more at the state and local level. Bidens tax plan is more for the wealthy that make most of their income from salary.

        I make just south of that. My issue on taxes is more at the state and local level. Bidens tax plan is more for the wealthy that make most of their income from salary.

        2 votes
    4. [14]
      Eabryt
      Link Parent
      I see this a lot and I'm always curious about it. I'm assuming this was while she was AG, but the AG doesn't make the laws right? She's just in charge of enforcing them? A lot of what I've seen is...

      Kamala is a terrible human being that incarcerated thousands of minorities for low level drug crimes

      I see this a lot and I'm always curious about it. I'm assuming this was while she was AG, but the AG doesn't make the laws right? She's just in charge of enforcing them?

      A lot of what I've seen is that while her record as AG is iffy, her record as a senator is way more Progressive. So you could argue that while she operated within the law as AG, she then became a senator so she could change the laws herself.

      Again, not really sure, I haven't looked too closely at her history, just what she's been doing more recently.

      7 votes
      1. viridian
        Link Parent
        Prosecutors have a huge amount of leeway in how they seek justice on behalf of the state, and I've even seen prosecutors pleading down penalties with a judge on behalf of unrepresented persons. I...

        Prosecutors have a huge amount of leeway in how they seek justice on behalf of the state, and I've even seen prosecutors pleading down penalties with a judge on behalf of unrepresented persons. I personally haven't seen any evidence to suggest that Harris has an overwhelming amount of zeal when it comes to pursuing the state's justice, but the bar for how hard prosecutors pursue drug trafficking offenses in the US is pretty high in the first place.

        8 votes
      2. [11]
        RNG
        Link Parent
        I don't think anyone would tolerate this defense of any individual's participation in a manifestly racist system throughout history. From those interning Japanese, to 19th century slave-catchers,...

        I see this a lot and I'm always curious about it. I'm assuming this was while she was AG, but the AG doesn't make the laws right? She's just in charge of enforcing them?

        I don't think anyone would tolerate this defense of any individual's participation in a manifestly racist system throughout history. From those interning Japanese, to 19th century slave-catchers, to riot cops in Birmingham, AL, we would never say "well, participation in these systems were justified, as these individuals didn't write the laws which enabled their actions."

        Once "history has been written" everyone feels comfortable confronting these systems and those who willingly participated in them, however there always feels to be this fog of ambiguity in the present where folks are far more likely to view currently existing systems of racial oppression as legitimate.

        8 votes
        1. [4]
          Eabryt
          Link Parent
          That's a good point. "Just following orders" should never be a reason to do wrong. Doesn't a more recent history of a willingness to change also matter though?

          That's a good point. "Just following orders" should never be a reason to do wrong.

          Doesn't a more recent history of a willingness to change also matter though?

          5 votes
          1. [3]
            RNG
            (edited )
            Link Parent
            I'm absolutely baffled as to how you've come to the conclusion there's a recent history of willingness to change. What standard would you apply to determine whether an internment guard, a slave...

            Doesn't a more recent history of a willingness to change also matter though?

            I'm absolutely baffled as to how you've come to the conclusion there's a recent history of willingness to change.

            What standard would you apply to determine whether an internment guard, a slave catcher, or a riot cop has had a change of heart? Certainly nothing I've seen from Harris comes anywhere close. I'd wager that occasional, weak and unactionable pandering to progressive voters from time to time (esp in the context of running an election where progressives are key to your victory) wouldn't fit the criteria of "a willingness to change" for most people.

            3 votes
            1. [2]
              Eabryt
              Link Parent
              She announced a bill to decriminalize marijuana federally in 2019, she co-sponsored Bernie's Single-payer healthcare bill (albeit she ran her presidential campaign on a different healthcare plan.)...

              She announced a bill to decriminalize marijuana federally in 2019, she co-sponsored Bernie's Single-payer healthcare bill (albeit she ran her presidential campaign on a different healthcare plan.) Additionally she has come out in favor of banning fracking (again, ignoring that the Biden/Harris campaign may not be.) She has also co-sponsored bills to ban offshore drilling.

              The first bill she introduced in the Senate was one to make sure that people detained by Customs & Border have access to legal representation.

              After/during the George Floyd protests she helped craft the bill to address deadly police force and has said that if elected they will ban choke holds.

              Again, I'm absolutely not trying to argue that she's "the most liberal senator" that was lauded in the press when she was announced as VP, but I think it's important to acknowledge when people can change their stances on things.

              8 votes
              1. AugustusFerdinand
                Link Parent
                All things done while she's trying to get elected as dem presidential nominee. She ran in California as a hardline cop, she needed to change position for the national stage, so she did, I've seen...

                She announced a bill to decriminalize marijuana federally in 2019, she co-sponsored Bernie's Single-payer healthcare bill (albeit she ran her presidential campaign on a different healthcare plan.) Additionally she has come out in favor of banning fracking (again, ignoring that the Biden/Harris campaign may not be.) She has also co-sponsored bills to ban offshore drilling.

                The first bill she introduced in the Senate was one to make sure that people detained by Customs & Border have access to legal representation.

                After/during the George Floyd protests she helped craft the bill to address deadly police force and has said that if elected they will ban choke holds.

                All things done while she's trying to get elected as dem presidential nominee.

                Again, I'm absolutely not trying to argue that she's "the most liberal senator" that was lauded in the press when she was announced as VP, but I think it's important to acknowledge when people can change their stances on things.

                She ran in California as a hardline cop, she needed to change position for the national stage, so she did, I've seen nothing but the same pandering that they all do. There's already been a very long thread about how she's full of crap, says one thing and does another, and is an overall ineffective leader.

                6 votes
        2. [6]
          arp242
          Link Parent
          Eh, pretty much this arguments gets made quite often about people who assisted with the Holocaust in some capacity, for example police officers, or people who worked on the trains, journalists,...

          I see this a lot and I'm always curious about it. I'm assuming this was while she was AG, but the AG doesn't make the laws right? She's just in charge of enforcing them?

          I don't think anyone would tolerate this defense of any individual's participation in a manifestly racist system throughout history. From those interning Japanese, to 19th century slave-catchers, to riot cops in Birmingham, AL, we would never say "well, participation in these systems were justified, as these individuals didn't write the laws which enabled their actions."

          Eh, pretty much this arguments gets made quite often about people who assisted with the Holocaust in some capacity, for example police officers, or people who worked on the trains, journalists, and mayors of cities. We even have a saying for it in Dutch: "being a mayor in wartime", referring to the many mayors (but also others) who assisted with the German occupation as part of their job, weren't necessarily happy with it, but also knew that quitting would be pointless or even counter-productive as the replacement would certainly be very pro-Nazi. So ... they kind of muddled along with "the system".

          It's easy to feel morally superior in the comfort of your home. But in reality most of us, with a few exceptions perhaps, would have just participated. There are a lot of gradients between being an Auschwitz camp guard and being a resistance fighter (and not that being a resistance fighter doesn't have its own moral issues on account of the German reprisals).

          5 votes
          1. [5]
            RNG
            (edited )
            Link Parent
            Precious few in any system of racial oppression have the power of discretion, the ability to return the Japanese to their homes, the ability to liberate the slave, however Harris was in that very...

            It's easy to feel morally superior in the comfort of your home. But in reality most of us, with a few exceptions perhaps, would have just participated.

            Precious few in any system of racial oppression have the power of discretion, the ability to return the Japanese to their homes, the ability to liberate the slave, however Harris was in that very position. She used her position to needlessly destroy the lives of countless people of color in her tenure. She has contributed more to human misery as AG than just about any individual racist cop has on their own.

            She isn't the "mayor in wartime." She had the ability to make meaningful change, and rather than using it to combat oppression, she used it to compound it.

            3 votes
            1. [4]
              arp242
              Link Parent
              Maybe she was working on other things which made a difference? You can't fault someone for not trying to change the status quo on every single topic. Or maybe she thinks these kind of crimes...

              Maybe she was working on other things which made a difference? You can't fault someone for not trying to change the status quo on every single topic. Or maybe she thinks these kind of crimes should be prosecuted? That's not something I necessarily agree with personally, but I find it disturbing that this is now being painted as some racist endeavour from some terrible human being "destroying black lives".

              1 vote
              1. [2]
                RNG
                Link Parent
                That is precisely and un-controversially what the result of her actions were. What do you think people are talking about when they discuss institutionalized racism? Thinking that people of color...

                but I find it disturbing that this is now being painted as some racist endeavour from some terrible human being "destroying black lives".

                That is precisely and un-controversially what the result of her actions were. What do you think people are talking about when they discuss institutionalized racism? Thinking that people of color should be stolen away from their families and locked up for years or decades isn't simply a matter of "what you agree with personally" anymore than one's position on Japanese internment or slave catchers is "just a matter of personal opinion."

                She willingly and eagerly participated in a system of racialized violence and leaned into the violence.

                5 votes
                1. arp242
                  Link Parent
                  Absolutely no one thinks that, this is a grossly unfair characterisation and I find it bewildering anyone could seriously think this. It seems pretty clear you're not interested in having any...

                  Thinking that people of color should be stolen away from their families and locked up for years or decades

                  Absolutely no one thinks that, this is a grossly unfair characterisation and I find it bewildering anyone could seriously think this. It seems pretty clear you're not interested in having any conversation of worth to explore anything, so good day to you.

                  5 votes
              2. Whom
                Link Parent
                It's not even not changing the status quo. Like, yes I would say that not working to change it while in a position with that kind of power is disgusting. But this case is actively enforcing the...

                It's not even not changing the status quo. Like, yes I would say that not working to change it while in a position with that kind of power is disgusting. But this case is actively enforcing the bad thing, not just looking away.

                2 votes
      3. nulledzero
        Link Parent
        Yes it was during her time as AG of San Francisco. She fought endlessly to bar evidence that would free an innocent man. Her time as senator is better I admit but as someone that falls in the...

        Yes it was during her time as AG of San Francisco. She fought endlessly to bar evidence that would free an innocent man.

        Her time as senator is better I admit but as someone that falls in the middle I still do not agree with most of her policies.

        4 votes
    5. [16]
      Comment deleted by author
      Link Parent
      1. [15]
        nulledzero
        Link Parent
        The second amendment is a big one. I am in no way a gun nut I am just an average citizen that enjoys shooting from time to time and the ability to protect my friends, family and property.

        The second amendment is a big one. I am in no way a gun nut I am just an average citizen that enjoys shooting from time to time and the ability to protect my friends, family and property.

        4 votes
        1. [15]
          Comment deleted by author
          Link Parent
          1. [14]
            nulledzero
            Link Parent
            Open carry in california is illegal. The laws they have been putting on gun owners is pretty silly. Like micro stamping, magazine capacity, adjustable stocks.

            Open carry in california is illegal. The laws they have been putting on gun owners is pretty silly. Like micro stamping, magazine capacity, adjustable stocks.

            2 votes
            1. [13]
              MimicSquid
              Link Parent
              Ok, but now you've downgraded from "removing the Second Amendment" to "silly rules about tracking and gun type". There can be (and are) real issues to discuss about what Democrats are doing in...

              Ok, but now you've downgraded from "removing the Second Amendment" to "silly rules about tracking and gun type". There can be (and are) real issues to discuss about what Democrats are doing in this country without needing to dive into massive hyperbole regarding their actions.

              19 votes
              1. [3]
                MonkeyPants
                Link Parent
                Accusing /u/nulledzero of "massive hyperbole" is completely misrepresenting what the guy was saying. NulledZero specifically mentioned open carry being illegal in California. The second...

                Accusing /u/nulledzero of "massive hyperbole" is completely misrepresenting what the guy was saying.

                NulledZero specifically mentioned open carry being illegal in California. The second constitutional amendment says the right to bear arms shall not be infringed. Bear, as in carry the weight.

                Depending on your interpretation of the second amendment, California could indeed have removed constitutional rights from Americans in favor of safety and security.

                I personally think it's absurd to have a constitutional amendment on gun rights that doesn't allow states to regulate what is and what is not permissible.

                And I think the second amendment is very clear that guns should be well regulated. Historically, that has been the case. It still is, too. I can't open carry nukes.

                But while I think /u/nulledzero is totally and utterly mistaken, I don't see any hyperbole. In fact, I respect the fact that /u/nulledzero is participating in a dialogue with a bunch of people who have opposing views.. while still remaining calm.

                5 votes
                1. [2]
                  MimicSquid
                  Link Parent
                  If your argument had any basis, California would have already been sued to overturn said laws. I am not a constitutional scholar, but I feel very sure the NRA would have picked that fight. As...

                  If your argument had any basis, California would have already been sued to overturn said laws. I am not a constitutional scholar, but I feel very sure the NRA would have picked that fight. As such, I'm comfortable saying that anyone claiming that California is overturning the second amendment with their gun control laws is absolutely being hyperbolic.

                  5 votes
                  1. MonkeyPants
                    Link Parent
                    The constitution is just words, man. It doesn't matter what the words say. What matters are the people interpreting the words. (Just look at all the religious beliefs stemming from the exact same...

                    The constitution is just words, man.

                    It doesn't matter what the words say.

                    What matters are the people interpreting the words.

                    (Just look at all the religious beliefs stemming from the exact same religious text.)

                    The NRA isn't going to pick that fight until they feel like they have the right people in place.

                    Because when it comes to the supreme court, precedent still matters. (Or at least, it used to.)

                    Come on, be honest. Constitutional amendments should be for things like voting rights. Having a vaguely worded constitutional amendment protecting the right to bear arms should be overturned and left up to state or federal law.

                    4 votes
              2. [9]
                AugustusFerdinand
                Link Parent
                To be fair, he stated "Dems want to take away rights" while the question took that out of context and went straight to "what have they taken". The democratic platform has consistently campaigned...

                To be fair, he stated "Dems want to take away rights" while the question took that out of context and went straight to "what have they taken".

                The democratic platform has consistently campaigned on gun control, I doubt they'd oppose a full revocation of the 2nd amendment.

                4 votes
                1. [6]
                  MimicSquid
                  Link Parent
                  I think that's a very big stretch to claim that campaigning on gun control means a desire for full revocation of the second amendment. That'd be like saying that because republicans attempt to...

                  I think that's a very big stretch to claim that campaigning on gun control means a desire for full revocation of the second amendment. That'd be like saying that because republicans attempt to restrict the right to vote they'd want to revoke the 15'th and 19'th amendments... well, maybe you have a point.

                  12 votes
                  1. [5]
                    ohyran
                    Link Parent
                    Isn't that a question of HOW the second amendment is ment to be interpreted? Personally I can see the appeal in a way, although tbh I don't see why someone wants to lug their guns around - its a...

                    Isn't that a question of HOW the second amendment is ment to be interpreted?

                    Personally I can see the appeal in a way, although tbh I don't see why someone wants to lug their guns around - its a bit like me wanting to lug my (soon to be arriving, yasssss) motherboard and processor around my neck when going to the shops.

                    I think the complexity of the gun debate in the US is fascinating. I mean I guess I can have that luxury seeing it from afar. So much is attached to each side and the cultural connections to it as a symbol is really interesting.
                    Where I live you can happily own a fully automatic machine gun. The "lying down with a belt feeder" thing that sprays a gazillion dollars worth of lead a minute. Sure you have to a have a license, and you are expected to follow correct protocol when storing, transporting and using it. (Unless there's an actual war on, you can't just take it down to the corner shops when buying smokes on a sunday)
                    If someone steals it, and it turns out you DIDN'T have the correct protocol (like having an actual gun safe, with firing mechanism in one end, ammo in another one) - for starters you don't get to own machine guns any more. And will most probably spend some time in jail for your incompetence.
                    I have a friend of my mums who grew up near Longyearbyen where open carry is a must at times (polarbears) - and even then you don't bring your gun IN to the store. You give it to the cashier to handle. And you don't lug it around town for funsies (no polarbears in town or the shops so no need).
                    At the same time: guns are FUN. A heavy little deadly thing in the palm of your hand that just screams out an invisible object that smash in to something leagues away the effect of which is replicated up your arm like a small shock wave? I'd be lying if I didn't say that the first time I shot a gun I didn't turn back and go "whooaaah", smiling.

                    The point is that its not as fetishized as in the US (Using "fetishized" not as a pejorative, but as the best word I could think of that fit) - its a tool, or a hobby. Not a twitter-bio.
                    And I really get why if you feel unsafe a gun is basically "a fighting chance" against perceived threats. A good friend in the US wants a gun, his husband does not. My friend is black and his husband white - my friends argument was "the cops aren't coming to help me, they are coming to get me" which... well its not much you can say about that tbh. The thin blue line seems firmly wrapped around the neck of a lot of brown people these days.
                    At the same time in the news here (surrounding the US election) they interviewed a middle aged white lady who was training other white ladies in the fine art of close quarters combat gun use because she was certain that "Antifa" was coming to kill them all after the election if Trump didn't win - she lived in a small midwestern community. In the interview she showed how to snatch-grab at her pistol in an open holster, while pushing back an assailant and just blasting that assailant away within a second. And I couldn't grasp where she thought she was: Kabul during the war or Johansonville, Wisconsin at election times.
                    She seemed happy though, so that's good I guess.

                    Guns seems to have such a clear cultural meaning in the US too. I'm trying to find an analogy with us here - but I can't because its either kind of meaningless or insulting which isn't cool.
                    It's like cars maybe? Depending on where you grew up, a sign of something more when you have it that gets the weight of that first impression of freedom from childhood lumped in to it. It's more than the tool it actually is. You could use it to go from point A to B, or you could drive around at night, playing music, with the windows open just feeling the night air of empty country roads waft over you.
                    Stripping it from you might then feel like having the very first sensation of youthful liberty taken from you while at the same time being possible to formalize as taking a valuable tool or a sensation you loved as a young person from the next generation.
                    After a while any concession to that, when the threat against that object is formalized, might feel like a slippery slope and you start arguing about drivers licenses next...

                    Maybe pot is the better analogy? What if the US decided tomorrow to ban pot? It's a drug, you don't HAVE to have it. We all know the annoying "Legalize!" people or the ones who can't stfu about all the things you can do with hemp, who have stickers with little leaves on it, or who claim its a magical medicinal plant.

                    I dunno - this got really long - my point was that I think oversimplifying @nulledzero 's point or want is a tad cruel.

                    2 votes
                    1. [4]
                      MimicSquid
                      Link Parent
                      I really enjoy guns, myself. I enjoy shooting them, I enjoy what cool pieces of machinery they are, I can appreciate the value of them for defense in extremis, and I can understand them as a...

                      I really enjoy guns, myself. I enjoy shooting them, I enjoy what cool pieces of machinery they are, I can appreciate the value of them for defense in extremis, and I can understand them as a fundamental part of a proper life's experience even if I don't have that.

                      But OP wasn't talking about any of that, they were just saying "Democrats want to take our constitutional rights, specifically the second amendment." And that's not in basically anyone's platform, I don't hear anyone talking about it. Even more mild gun control is way down most people's priority lists right now. It's a bugaboo to scare the right, as opposed to an actual held position. The whole rant was full of them, which is why I also asked about Pelosi and her theoretical tyranny over San Francisco.

                      Like, I can have understanding for someone who has fundamentally different ideas about what makes for a good life and what is a good society, but most of the fears mentioned are not based on different beliefs that grew from common fundamentals but coming from a completely different understanding of the nature of the world.

                      And I don't know how to engage with that. I live near SF, and it's not a hellhole dominated by Pelosi. As far as I can tell she mostly stays in DC doing DC stuff and doesn't get into local politics. California has gun control laws, but I haven't heard anyone pushing for removal of guns. Where do I start when our experience of the world is so different?

                      9 votes
                      1. [3]
                        ohyran
                        Link Parent
                        Good points but I think there is a slippery slope logic there too. I mean take ... take articles like "The Rise of Fascism in America" etc - its not about Fascism being there already but signs...

                        Good points but I think there is a slippery slope logic there too. I mean take ... take articles like "The Rise of Fascism in America" etc - its not about Fascism being there already but signs that it is being implemented. Maybe that is the same logic - a set of signs leading towards a dangerous change?

                        As for different experiences - thats just part of who we are. I mean... you live in the US, went to school there right? What do you remember of the lessons about the Vietnam war? I grew up in Sweden and I am in my 40's. My parents met, like a lot of my generations parents, at the FNL demonstrations. The first chapter in my history book about the Vietnam war was led by that photo of little kids running on a road after being burned with Napalm while a soldier looks at them bored. It took a long time for me to get that Americans aren't blood thirsty murderers (and a lot of other things).
                        Or say 9/11. I worked in a shop and when it happened the electronics shop next to me called us over - everyone ran there to look at the TV screens. Next to me was an old dude of Middle Eastern descent crying while the planes hit the towers saying over and over in Swedish "The Americans will murder us all for this".
                        There is a sign in LaGuardia Airport with neon lights saying "God Bless Our Troops". My husband and I took photos of it fascinated. The phrase is as outlandish to us as ... for example "May the emperors divine right strike down our enemies" would be to you on a neon sign. The first time I heard someone go "Thank you for your service" like a mantra to soldiers I thought it was an anti-war protest with too many layers of irony.

                        We're different. The view we have of our world is sometimes absurdly divided. Our job as humans, if we are both willing to invest that time and effort (and we can and should be able to say "no" to that too) our job is to find the human in the other. Start at that and build upward. And we're smart enough, empathic enough to do it too.

                        So in his case - the issue for you and me (to whom his worldview is foreign) should be to figure out how he could get there but always assume that he is a intelligent and full human in the process.

                        I think we can do it :)

                        5 votes
                        1. [2]
                          vektor
                          Link Parent
                          To add on to the slippery slope argument there, or maybe take away from it: The difference between a fascist doing a proto-fascism and a democrat doing a gun control is that in one case there is a...

                          To add on to the slippery slope argument there, or maybe take away from it: The difference between a fascist doing a proto-fascism and a democrat doing a gun control is that in one case there is a slippery slope (fascist things pave the way for more fascist things and inhibit the leverage of anti-fascists.) while in one case I fail to see the slope. Demanding gun control in its various forms does not directly lead to more gun control. It is perfectly valid and effective to control guns a bit more than they are today, and then stop there. Add to that that trump's fascist tendencies have no beneficial purpose in and of themselves - brutalizing peaceful protesters does not help prevent property damage for example, it just makes the protests violent.

                          The problem with slippery slope arguments is that the slope is often improperly defined. You want to see a clear feedback loop that emboldens or otherwise amplifies the behavior in question. Otherwise, Slippery Slope is just a different phrase to express "I don't like having to compromise".

                          9 votes
                          1. ohyran
                            Link Parent
                            Absolutely! I mean good points all around - specifically slippery slope ideas which are just a tad heavy on the assumptions and drama. I was just trying to get in to the mindset

                            Absolutely! I mean good points all around - specifically slippery slope ideas which are just a tad heavy on the assumptions and drama.

                            I was just trying to get in to the mindset

                            2 votes
                2. [2]
                  gpl
                  Link Parent
                  I just want to point out that the OP originally said they will take away constitutional rights, not that they want to. I don't think the two are equivalent.

                  I just want to point out that the OP originally said they will take away constitutional rights, not that they want to. I don't think the two are equivalent.

                  5 votes
                  1. AugustusFerdinand
                    Link Parent
                    Correct, I meant to say "will"; which was still misconstrued in the follow up question. That's what I get for coming here on my phone. I thank you for looking out and the correction.

                    Correct, I meant to say "will"; which was still misconstrued in the follow up question.

                    That's what I get for coming here on my phone. I thank you for looking out and the correction.

                    2 votes
  28. [3]
    CALICO
    Link
    Is anyone else trying to cope with the stress of today, through disassociating expectations v. hopes by playing the odds?

    Is anyone else trying to cope with the stress of today, through disassociating expectations v. hopes by playing the odds?

    6 votes
    1. [2]
      Omnicrola
      Link Parent
      Current plan is to try and deal with the stress by ignoring news as much as possible today, reminding myself that the odds are pretty good and there's nothing else I can do to affect anything...

      Current plan is to try and deal with the stress by ignoring news as much as possible today, reminding myself that the odds are pretty good and there's nothing else I can do to affect anything today. So focusing on self-care, and work. Because work is something I have direct control over and can accomplish positive things today.

      Took tomorrow off though, because one way or another, I will be emotionally and physically hung over (and so might the electoral college).

      8 votes
      1. Akir
        Link Parent
        I feel that. I'm taking a break from work and I timed it to end after tomorrow for the exact same reason.

        I feel that. I'm taking a break from work and I timed it to end after tomorrow for the exact same reason.

        3 votes
  29. ohyran
    Link
    Listening to one of my favourite podcasts in Swedish (ping @mycketforvirrad btw (you speak/is Swedish right?): Flashback Forever and todays episode which focuses on the group of people who where...

    Listening to one of my favourite podcasts in Swedish (ping @mycketforvirrad btw (you speak/is Swedish right?): Flashback Forever and todays episode which focuses on the group of people who where pro trump here (less than 20% here like Trump and the overlap between that group and voters for the nationalist extreme right, or neonazi right is basically a one to one).

    It starts with betting, the amount of cash a lot of people here won on betting for Trump last election (the odds where great 2016 and now, not so much but a lot of people here have betted for Trump), and then about Trump ("Yay he's against the Jews/Muslims etc etc") and then how he collapsed in their view a bit a few years back and some of the weirder ones claim he's replaced by a robot/clone or mindcontrolled by the CIA.
    Trump has lower odds or comparable in several betting sites here it seems btw.

    Its pretty fun/fascinating - I mean it would be DAMN more fun if Trump was a fictional character but wtf.

    6 votes
  30. [7]
    kfwyre
    Link
    Anyone else filled with an uncomfortable amount of nervous energy? I'm trying to just tune out the numbers and reporting right now since I can't affect the outcome and we won't know for a while,...

    Anyone else filled with an uncomfortable amount of nervous energy?

    I'm trying to just tune out the numbers and reporting right now since I can't affect the outcome and we won't know for a while, but that still isn't alleviating the palpable anxiety.

    6 votes
    1. [3]
      Omnicrola
      Link Parent
      My constant ABV level is keeping my nerves from fraying. That and playing AmongUs/Codenames with a bunch of friends in Zoom. We've all agreed that nobody is allowed to discuss anything about...

      My constant ABV level is keeping my nerves from fraying. That and playing AmongUs/Codenames with a bunch of friends in Zoom. We've all agreed that nobody is allowed to discuss anything about politics. So far so good.

      6 votes
      1. [2]
        hungariantoast
        Link Parent
        Are you me? My friends and I started playing games not too long ago, and I started drinking a bit earlier today than normal... We are all absolutely discussing and freaking the fuck out right now,...

        Are you me? My friends and I started playing games not too long ago, and I started drinking a bit earlier today than normal...

        We are all absolutely discussing and freaking the fuck out right now, though we're doing it together

        Hoping for a Texas miracle...

        4 votes
        1. Omnicrola
          Link Parent
          Hah no probably not. We are actually sticking to the "no politics" rule. Normally it's a fine topic to bitch about, but we all agreed we needed some escapism this evening.

          Hah no probably not. We are actually sticking to the "no politics" rule. Normally it's a fine topic to bitch about, but we all agreed we needed some escapism this evening.

          3 votes
    2. [3]
      MimicSquid
      Link Parent
      Yes. I can barely sit still, leaping to my feet to pace about the house. Then I sit down again to try to distract myself, but it only lasts a few minutes before I'm pacing again.

      Yes. I can barely sit still, leaping to my feet to pace about the house. Then I sit down again to try to distract myself, but it only lasts a few minutes before I'm pacing again.

      3 votes
      1. [2]
        RapidEyeMovement
        Link Parent
        With the way things are falling out, we will not know the results tonight, unless Biden pulls a miracle in TX

        With the way things are falling out, we will not know the results tonight, unless Biden pulls a miracle in TX

        5 votes
        1. MimicSquid
          Link Parent
          Yeah, I know that. It doesn't stop my body from needing to move.

          Yeah, I know that. It doesn't stop my body from needing to move.

          4 votes
  31. kfwyre
    Link
    Here's an election call tracker that shows which news outlets have called each state so far.

    Here's an election call tracker that shows which news outlets have called each state so far.

    6 votes
  32. [18]
    moocow1452
    (edited )
    Link
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/how-single-person-could-decide-election/616995/ If Biden does top out at 270, and one of the Democratic electoralate flips, it would certainly...

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/how-single-person-could-decide-election/616995/

    If Biden does top out at 270, and one of the Democratic electoralate flips, it would certainly be a thing that could happen.

    6 votes
    1. [17]
      kfwyre
      Link Parent
      Holy hell, this is a nightmare scenario that my anxiety did not need to read right now. This is not a criticism of you for posting it, by the way -- that's just my nerves talking. It's actually a...

      Holy hell, this is a nightmare scenario that my anxiety did not need to read right now.

      This is not a criticism of you for posting it, by the way -- that's just my nerves talking. It's actually a very insightful and, depending on how things pan out, potentially relevant read. It just hits particularly hard right now -- I feel like it's kicking the stool out from underneath me as I stand on a very wobbly, very shaky hope.

      5 votes
      1. [16]
        Gaywallet
        Link Parent
        On the positive side, if it does happen, it makes it even more likely we'll have some ammunition to finally get rid of the racist institution known as the electoral college.

        On the positive side, if it does happen, it makes it even more likely we'll have some ammunition to finally get rid of the racist institution known as the electoral college.

        8 votes
        1. [15]
          viridian
          Link Parent
          How is the electoral college racist?

          How is the electoral college racist?

          5 votes
          1. [2]
            jcdl
            Link Parent
            I believe they're referring to the 3/5ths ratio compromise that was done to appease the slaver states at the Constitutional Convention in 1787.

            I believe they're referring to the 3/5ths ratio compromise that was done to appease the slaver states at the Constitutional Convention in 1787.

            8 votes
            1. viridian
              Link Parent
              The 3/5ths compromise isn't directly related, as it was drafted after the electoral college was agreed upon.

              The 3/5ths compromise isn't directly related, as it was drafted after the electoral college was agreed upon.

              6 votes
          2. [10]
            MimicSquid
            Link Parent
            Rural people have more significant representation in the electoral college. Rural people are more likely to be white. ??? Disenfranchisement!
            1. Rural people have more significant representation in the electoral college.
            2. Rural people are more likely to be white.
            3. ???
            4. Disenfranchisement!
            5 votes
            1. [9]
              viridian
              Link Parent
              When the electoral college was created, this wasn't the case by definition. Everyone who could vote was white.

              When the electoral college was created, this wasn't the case by definition. Everyone who could vote was white.

              4 votes
              1. [8]
                MimicSquid
                Link Parent
                Sure. Plenty of things weren't bad in the past and yet have negative consequences now. The fact that at some point in the past it was fine doesn't change what it is now.

                Sure. Plenty of things weren't bad in the past and yet have negative consequences now. The fact that at some point in the past it was fine doesn't change what it is now.

                4 votes
                1. [7]
                  viridian
                  Link Parent
                  What would you say the electoral college is now, that makes it so harmful? I view it as a pretty useful construct to hedge against federal centralization.

                  What would you say the electoral college is now, that makes it so harmful? I view it as a pretty useful construct to hedge against federal centralization.

                  2 votes
                  1. [4]
                    MimicSquid
                    Link Parent
                    How does it do that? From what I can see, it mostly provides a distortion to the vote, making it such that the popular vote doesn't make someone the winner. How can anyone say that there's equal...

                    How does it do that? From what I can see, it mostly provides a distortion to the vote, making it such that the popular vote doesn't make someone the winner. How can anyone say that there's equal representation when more people vote for one candidate and the electoral college causes the other candidate to win?

                    4 votes
                    1. [3]
                      viridian
                      Link Parent
                      Why is it necessary and proper that the federal executor be elected by the populace of some minority of the federation? This is a direct assault on the sovereignty of the states who happen to have...

                      Why is it necessary and proper that the federal executor be elected by the populace of some minority of the federation? This is a direct assault on the sovereignty of the states who happen to have less people, as if their state is somehow less valuable to the whole of these United States.

                      (In the end, we compromised - The states get some due weight, and the populace of the whole federation is respected as well, in fact we respect the people about four times as much as we respect the sovereignty of the states)

                      2 votes
                      1. [2]
                        MimicSquid
                        Link Parent
                        Yeah. It's quite likely that I haven't thought through the repercussions, but I don't think that when it comes to electing the president that the individuals within the states should have varying...

                        Yeah. It's quite likely that I haven't thought through the repercussions, but I don't think that when it comes to electing the president that the individuals within the states should have varying levels of influence upon selecting the executive. If we're all voting for the president individually, why are the states standing as a filter in the way? If it actually should just comes down to the state's decision, why is there an individual vote at all? Why not have the governors or some other section of the state's governments make that vote? It feels like the compromise is the worst of both worlds.

                        2 votes
                        1. viridian
                          Link Parent
                          Part of it stems from the absolute failure that was the American Confederacy, and the desire to amend and build a better nation the second time. The anti-federalists thought that the confederacy...

                          Part of it stems from the absolute failure that was the American Confederacy, and the desire to amend and build a better nation the second time. The anti-federalists thought that the confederacy of states was largely fine, except for major monetary and military gaps. The federalists wanted to form a true federation, which ended up being the end result, with many concessions given to the anti-federalists.

                          The compromise came about because the confederation was untenable, but at least 9 of the states had to ratify the new constitution, and politically, 4 of states were going to have to be VA, PE, NY, and MA.

                          2 votes
                  2. [2]
                    Kuromantis
                    Link Parent
                    The problem is that the electoral college is delegated in a FPTP (first past the post) way, which enforces the 2 party system the US has now, because if 50% of the vote gives you everything, the...

                    The problem is that the electoral college is delegated in a FPTP (first past the post) way, which enforces the 2 party system the US has now, because if 50% of the vote gives you everything, the ideal way to do politics is to have 2 parties at 49 and have them compete for the 50th percentile. That makes any other parties spoilers and means that your vote is orders of magnitude more important in a state with that 49/49/2 split, not to mention the implications of crushing the entirety of politics down to 2 opposing political parties.

                    2 votes
                    1. viridian
                      Link Parent
                      That problem is unrelated to FPTP though, a pure popular vote or NPVIC effective popular vote is subject to the same follies that cause spoiler effects. Sure, I personally might get a hell of a...

                      That problem is unrelated to FPTP though, a pure popular vote or NPVIC effective popular vote is subject to the same follies that cause spoiler effects. Sure, I personally might get a hell of a lot less mail in a popular vote system with the elimination of battleground states, but the focal math problem remains the same: one executive position, N # of candidates, one vote cast per position, per voter.

                      3 votes
          3. [2]
            Gaywallet
            Link Parent
            Do you know the history of the electoral college? The 3/5ths compromise? It's founded on racist ideals.

            Do you know the history of the electoral college? The 3/5ths compromise? It's founded on racist ideals.

            2 votes
            1. viridian
              Link Parent
              Article I was in large part already decided upon - the electoral college was to be the system of executive election with or without an answer to the question of whether or not to count slaves as a...

              Article I was in large part already decided upon - the electoral college was to be the system of executive election with or without an answer to the question of whether or not to count slaves as a part of a state's population. The college, too, was a compromise between the federalists and the anti-federalists, who sparred over whether or not the president was elected by the people, or by the states.

              3 votes
  33. tunneljumper
    Link
    Went to vote early today in MN, there was a line around the block. I counted five pickups drive by with obnoxious Trump decals and flags, driving through a primarily black neighborhood. ::think::

    Went to vote early today in MN, there was a line around the block. I counted five pickups drive by with obnoxious Trump decals and flags, driving through a primarily black neighborhood. ::think::

    5 votes
  34. [4]
    MonkeyPants
    (edited )
    Link
    NYTimes has three needles this year
    5 votes
    1. Omnicrola
      Link Parent
      Your link appears to be missing a prefix, which is making it relative instead of absolute.

      Your link appears to be missing a prefix, which is making it relative instead of absolute.

      5 votes
    2. MonkeyPants
      Link Parent
      The NYTimes will start updating the needles at 7 p.m. Eastern.

      The NYTimes will start updating the needles at 7 p.m. Eastern.

      4 votes
  35. [3]
    Whom
    Link
    What election trackers / live news outlets are yall following this time around? I usually fall back to TYT because I appreciate their energy when they're targeting the right people. Otherwise I'm...

    What election trackers / live news outlets are yall following this time around? I usually fall back to TYT because I appreciate their energy when they're targeting the right people. Otherwise I'm thinking maybe NPR liveblogs. Does Democracy Now do live coverage? I've never understood their broadcast setup.

    5 votes
    1. AugustusFerdinand
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      I intend to follow probably the only group that seems to care about accuracy above immediacy. So I'll be follow the Associated Press.

      I intend to follow probably the only group that seems to care about accuracy above immediacy. So I'll be follow the Associated Press.

      8 votes
    2. petrichor
      Link Parent
      I've been following NPR and FiveThirtyEight for live coverage.

      I've been following NPR and FiveThirtyEight for live coverage.

      6 votes
  36. [7]
    MonkeyPants
    Link
    Anyone know what happened in Florida? It looked like it was tilting towards Biden then the polls suggest it swung hard towards Trump in the last few days.

    Anyone know what happened in Florida?

    It looked like it was tilting towards Biden then the polls suggest it swung hard towards Trump in the last few days.

    5 votes
    1. [6]
      hungariantoast
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      Maybe someone else can find a source but my understanding is Miami-Dade county swung hard for Trump and that carried the state for him. As for why, I found this quote last night to be funny and...

      Maybe someone else can find a source but my understanding is Miami-Dade county swung hard for Trump and that carried the state for him.

      As for why, I found this quote last night to be funny and maybe enlightening:

      Dems ran a center right candidate and socialist branding still stuck. Waste of time.

      Basically, the idea I've seen floating about is that the GOP got effective use out of calling Biden a socialist to convince Cuban and Venezuelan voters that Biden is a socialist and obviously wants to turn the US into either of those countries.

      EDIT: I have absolutely zero interest in discussing the demographics of Floridians thank you

      EDIT EDIT: I have absolutely zero interest in discussing just about anything right now to be honest

      8 votes
      1. [3]
        aphoenix
        Link Parent
        I don't believe that even the staunchest stupid Republicans deserve Republicans.

        If they're dumb enough to believe that... they deserve the impoverished suffering that Republicans have in store for them.

        I don't believe that even the staunchest stupid Republicans deserve Republicans.

        8 votes
        1. [2]
          hungariantoast
          Link Parent
          Sure, no one actually deserves to be trapped in a Republican mindset or to suffer from the effects of a Republican government, and yet these people came out in droves to vote for exactly that....

          Sure, no one actually deserves to be trapped in a Republican mindset or to suffer from the effects of a Republican government, and yet these people came out in droves to vote for exactly that. You'll find little empathy in me today. I'm at the point where I consider red voters little more than an anthropomorphic blob of lemmings, useful only to be manipulated

          9 votes
          1. aphoenix
            Link Parent
            I don't disagree, and I have the luxury of being in a whole other country and the lemmingstupid isn't having as direct an impact on my life, so I've been ruminating on how the stupidity is almost...

            I consider red voters little more than an anthropomorphic blob of lemmings, useful only to be manipulated

            I don't disagree, and I have the luxury of being in a whole other country and the lemmingstupid isn't having as direct an impact on my life, so I've been ruminating on how the stupidity is almost more unfortunate for the actual people who are stupidly and proudly clinging to a man whose actions are literally killing them in droves.

            It's mind boggling, pathetic and interesting, and serves as a dire warning for populism in Canada as well.

            5 votes
      2. NaraVara
        Link Parent
        Wealthy, White Cuban doctors are not in store for any impoverished suffering under Trump. They can pass well enough and they don't like Guatemalans or Mexicans or Salvadorians any more than any...

        If they're dumb enough to believe that... they deserve the impoverished suffering that Republicans have in store for them.

        Wealthy, White Cuban doctors are not in store for any impoverished suffering under Trump. They can pass well enough and they don't like Guatemalans or Mexicans or Salvadorians any more than any other White person.

        6 votes
  37. gpl
    Link
    This election is going to be talked about for years. Just insane to live through really.

    This election is going to be talked about for years. Just insane to live through really.

    5 votes
  38. [3]
    Kuromantis
    Link
    On a similar vein to this comment, does anyone have an idea why is Nevada being such a close state this election? Biden seems to have performed a percentage point or two better than Hillary in...

    On a similar vein to this comment, does anyone have an idea why is Nevada being such a close state this election? Biden seems to have performed a percentage point or two better than Hillary in most places but he's winning by like, 7000 people (half a percent) in Nevada?

    2 votes
    1. viridian
      Link Parent
      From what I've read, Vegas has gotten hit hard economically by covid shutdown, for obvious reasons, and so there's quite a bit less work available due to the entertainment focus of the city. The...

      From what I've read, Vegas has gotten hit hard economically by covid shutdown, for obvious reasons, and so there's quite a bit less work available due to the entertainment focus of the city. The casinos have a pretty strange work culture overall, in that a lot of folks are well paid compared to the rest of the country, but with little to no career growth, had a friend who dealt in one of the major casinos before he went back to school for accounting for that reason. Outside of Vegas I don't think much has changed since 2016.

      7 votes
    2. Kuromantis
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      EDIT: New data has finally come in, his lead is up to 12k now, and it doesn't really seem to be under too much risk.

      EDIT: New data has finally come in, his lead is up to 12k now, and it doesn't really seem to be under too much risk.

      1 vote