The "nobody" in the title doesn't have to be literal -- it can be a battle that very few people know about. The important thing is that it's mostly hidden.

What is the struggle?
Is it hidden by choice?
Do you want more people to know about it? Why or why not?

Sorry for the late posting (life got in the way).

Welcome all to our weekly (ish) gardening group discussion!

Feel free to discuss anything related to gardening, beginner or advanced, challenge or success.

‘Seed’ questions:

1. Would you like to garden in a different climate, if so where?
2. Who shares in the your gardening outcomes? Friends/family, or is it more personal?
3. What if your motivation to garden? Is it the reward at the end, the journey or something else?

What have you been doing lately for your own fitness? Try out any new programs or exercises? Have any questions for others about your training? Want to vent about poor behavior in the gym? Started a new diet or have a new recipe you want to share? Anything else health and wellness related?

I've found myself replying to different people about the early 2025 METR study kind of often. So I thought I'd try posting a top level thread, consider it an unsolicitied public service announcement.

You might be familiar with the study because it has been showing up alongside discussions about AI and coding for about a year. It found that LLMs actually decreased developer productivity and so people love to use it to suggest that the whole AI coding thing is really a big lie and the people who think it makes them more productive are hallucinating.

Here's the thing about that study... No one seems to have even glanced at it!

First, it's from early 2025, they used Claude Sonnet 3.5 or 3.7. Those models are no way comparable to current gen coding agents. The commonly cited inflection point didn't happen until later in 2025 with, depending on who you ask, Sonnet 4.5 or Opus 4.5

The study was comprised of 16 people! If those 16 were even vaguely representative of the developer population at the time most of them wouldn't have had significant experience with LLMs for coding.

These are not tools that just work out of the box, especially back then. It takes time and experimentation, or instruction, to use them well.

It was cool that they did the study, trying to understand LLMs was a good idea. But it's not what anyone would consider a representative, or even well thought out, study. 16 people!

But wait! They did a follow up study later in 2025.

This time with about 60 people and newer models and tools. In that study they found the opposite effect, AI tools sped developers up (which is a shock to no one who has used these tools long enough to get a feel for them). They also mentioned:

However the true speedup could be much higher among the developers and tasks which are selected out of the experiment.

In addition they had some, kind of entertaining, issues:

Due to the severity of these selection effects, we are working on changes to the design of our study.

Back to the drawing board, because:

Recruitment and retention of developers has become more difficult. An increased share of developers say they would not want to do 50% of their work without AI, even though our study pays them $50/hour to work on tasks of their own choosing. Our study is thus systematically missing developers who have the most optimistic expectations about AI’s value.

And...

Developers have become more selective in which tasks they submit. When surveyed, 30% to 50% of developers told us that they were choosing not to submit some tasks because they did not want to do them without AI. This implies we are systematically missing tasks which have high expected uplift from AI.

And so...

Together, these effects make it likely that our estimate reported above is a lower-bound on the true productivity effects of AI on these developers.

[...]

Some developers were less likely to complete tasks that they submitted if they were assigned to the AI-disallowed condition. One developer did not complete any of the tasks that were assigned to the AI-disallowed condition.

[...]

Altogether, these issues make it challenging to interpret our central estimate, and we believe it is likely a bad proxy for the real productivity impact of AI tools on these developers.

So to summarize, the new study showed a productivity increase and they estimate it's larger than the ~20% increase the study found. Cheers to them for being honest about the issues they encountered. For my part I know for sure that the increase is significantly more than 20%. The caveat, though, is that is only true after you've had some experience with the tools.

The truth is that we don't need a study for this, any experienced engineer can readily see it for themselves and you can find them talking about it pretty much everywhere. It would be interesting, though, to see a well designed study that attempted to quantify how big the average productivity increase actually is.

For that the participants using AI would need to be experienced with it and allowed to use their existing setups.

I want to add that this is not an attempt to evangelize for AI. I find the tools useful but I'm not selling anything. I'm interested in them and I stay up to date on the conversations surrounding them and the underlying technology. I use them frequently both for my own projects and to help less technical people improve their business productivity.

Whether AI agents are a good thing or not, from a larger perspective, is a very different, and complicated, conversation. The important thing is that utility and impact are two different conversations. There isn't a debate anymore about utility.

I know this probably won't stop people from continuing to derail conversations with the claim that developers are wrong about utility, but I had to try. It's just hard to let it pass by when someone claims the sky is green.

I understand that AI makes people angry and I think they have good reason to be angry. There are a lot of aspects of the AI revolution that I'm not thrilled about. The hype foremost, the FOMO as part of the hype, the potential for increased wealth consolidation really sucks, though I lay that at the feet of systems that existed before LLMs came along.

It's messy, but let's consider giving the benefit of the doubt to professionals who say a tool works instead of claiming they're wrong. Let them enjoy it. We can still be angry at AI at the same time.

I noticed bluesky is down.

I haven't seen news about this yet so I wonder if it is just a temporary tech problem or a DOS.

I'm getting this error or an error about rate limiting:

Hmm, some kind of issue occurred when contacting the feed server. Please let the feed owner know about this issue.
Message from server: Upstream server responded with a 503 error

Have you watched any movies recently you want to discuss? Any films you want to recommend or are hyped about? Feel free to discuss anything here.

Please just try to provide fair warning of spoilers if you can.

What have you been watching and reading this week? You don't need to give us a whole essay if you don't want to, but please write something! Feel free to talk about something you saw that was cool, something that was bad, ask for recommendations, or anything else you can think of.

If you want to, feel free to find the thing you're talking about and link to its pages on Anilist, MAL, or any other database you use!

Predicting the NBA MVP with Machine Learning

Thesis

Every season, basketball fans debate who deserves the MVP award. We built 3 machine learning models that attempt to answer that question using box score statistics. At the end of each season, this award is determined by a panel of voters.

Methodology

Each model is trained on every NBA season from 1974 to 2017. For each player season, it looks at nine statistics:

• Points, assists, blocks, defensive rebounds, and field goals per game the core production numbers
• Win Shares (WS): an estimate of how many wins a player contributed to their team
• Value Over Replacement Player (VORP): how much better a player is than a league average replacement
• Box Plus/Minus (BPM): a player's net impact per 100 possessions
• Usage Rate (USG%): what share of team plays run through that player

From those nine numbers, the model learns what a typical MVP season looks like versus a non MVP season, then applies that knowledge to current players. Each model outputs an independent probability that a given player wins MVP, not a share of a single pool, so the values do not sum to 1. Think of it as each player's individual odds.

Three Models, One Question

Rather than relying on a single approach, the system runs three different models and lets you compare:

Logistic Regression

The simplest of the three. It draws a straight line through the data, each statistic gets a weight, and a player's score is the weighted sum of their stats. It's easy to interpret (a higher coefficient means that stat matters more).

Win Shares (WS) is by far the most influential feature, with an absolute coefficient of ~1.85, nearly double the next most important feature. Box Plus/Minus (BPM) ranks second at ~1.0, followed by Defensive Rebounds per Game (DRBPG, ~0.85) and Assists per Game (ASTPG, ~0.70). VORP and Field Goals per Game (FGPG) contribute moderately at ~0.50. Blocks per Game (BLKPG), Points per Game (PTSPG), and Usage Rate (USG%) have minimal weight, all under 0.15.

Random Forest

Builds hundreds of decision trees, each one asking a series of "is this stat above or below X?" questions and averages their answers. It handles complex relationships between stats well and is less sensitive to any one unusual data point. Think of it as a large committee of simple rules voting together.

WS again dominates at ~0.31, accounting for roughly twice the importance of the next feature. VORP (~0.15) and BPM (~0.125) rank second and third. DRBPG (~0.10), PTSPG (~0.08), BLKPG (~0.07), FGPG (~0.065), and ASTPG (~0.06) contribute in a fairly tight mid-range band. USG% is the least important at ~0.05. Compared to logistic regression, the Random Forest spreads importance more evenly across features.

Gradient Boosting

Also uses decision trees, but builds them sequentially: each new tree focuses on correcting the mistakes the previous ones made.

This model is heavily concentrated on just two features: BPM (~0.47) and WS (~0.41) together account for roughly 88% of total feature importance. All remaining features, PTSPG, VORP, ASTPG, DRBPG, contribute ~0.02–0.03 each, and BLKPG, USG%, and FGPG are effectively unused (near zero). This suggests the gradient boosting model learned that BPM and WS alone are nearly sufficient to separate MVP candidates.

Historical Results

The models were trained on data through 2017, so every season from 2018 onward is a genuine out of sample test, the models have never seen these players or seasons before.

Top-1 accuracy: LR 5/8 · RF 5/8 · GB 6/8

Top-3 accuracy: LR 8/8 · RF 7/8 · GB 7/8

Top-3 accuracy: LR 8/8 · RF 7/8 · GB 7/8

For five straight seasons (2019–2022 + 2024), all three models agreed on the same #1 pick, and were right every time.

In 2023, every model ranked Nikola Jokić #1, and by the numbers, he arguably had the better season. Joel Embiid won the award anyway, the kind of outcome that may reflect voter narrative/fatigue and team performance rather than pure statistics. In 2025, Gradient Boosting ranked Shai Gilgeous-Alexander outside the top 500, while Logistic Regression and Random Forest had him at #3 and #2 respectively. I have no idea why GB did this. Likely a bug.

Future Direction

No model is perfect, and these have known blind spots. Team record is not included, MVP voters have historically punished players on losing teams regardless of individual stats. Injuries and narrative don't appear in a box score. And the training data skews toward an older era; the three point revolution and the rise of players like SGA have introduced statistical profiles the 1970s–1990s data doesn't fully capture.

Current Season Predictions (2025–26)

Two of the three models have Nikola Jokić as the frontrunner. Random Forest is the dissenter, putting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ahead. Victor Wembanyama appears in all three top 3s in just his second season, which is notable. Before running the models, I expected him to be #1 for all of them considering the way the models use advanced stats.

Conclusion

Thank you for reading. I hope you found this interesting. Basketball reference also has their own model if you would like to see a different result. Please do not gamble on my models!

So much of what the algorithms surface is negative. For all of the reasons that mostly everyone's aware of at this point.

It's easy to get the general impression that times are dark without realizing it. I think sometimes it's good to intentionally offset algorithmic (and general human) negativity bias.

Lets do a positive news thread, I'll start:

Hungary votes out Orbán after 16 years

Perovskite solar cells hit 34.85%

Portugal hits 80.7% renewable electricity

Hidden drainage system found in human brain

First lab-grown oesophagus using hosts own cells (fully incorporated with muscles, nerves, arteries within 6 months)

And of course Artemis II! Why is space exploration somehow more positive than the sum of its parts?

Please post anything, it doesn't have to be "news". The full range of the humanities works too

I've been working on a playlist for a while of rock / pop songs with sax solos. The rules are:

• Must be from this millennium
• sax can't be a primary instrument
• pop or rock genres preferred

Here's what I've got so far: https://link.deezer.com/s/323YPvabsQgEuS8BOTCXj