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    1. How to calculate how long a large project will be delayed? How likely it will be completed at all?

      I'm talking Really Big Projects. NASA plans to have astronauts skinny-dipping in Shackleton Crater by 2030. Norway wants to build the first ever commercial ship tunnel, done by 2030. That's the...

      I'm talking Really Big Projects.

      NASA plans to have astronauts skinny-dipping in Shackleton Crater by 2030. Norway wants to build the first ever commercial ship tunnel, done by 2030.

      That's the level I'm talking about.

      And also, I'm not talking about cost overruns or resource requirements, or anything like that.

      I just mean, really big, really public, engineering projects -- typically chock full of political complications -- get announced in the news, like ...

      "NASA to build Super-Duper-Big Telescope on Olympus Mons, for $8B, by 2034"

      -- and everyone knows it's actually going to cost 6-16x that amount, and be ready to use in the late-2040s ... assuming it gets built at all.

      I want something vaguely formulaic to calculate how much and how long it will actually take NASA to build that telescope.

      Back before he became universally hated, it was kind of a meme-level joke that Elon Musk was already living on Mars time, so all of his project-completion estimates had to be multiplied by 1.88 (to convert from Martian back to Earth years). The funny thing, as a rough guideline ... that was actually a pretty reliable formula.

      I want something like that formula, but given a bit more thought and research, maybe some optional variables to take into account the project circumstances.

      There are plenty of studies (I've been looking) that seek to identify and calculate the causes of large-project delays and cost-overruns, and how to minimize/avoid them. But I'm not trying to rein in the delays and overruns ... I just want to have a way of semi-realistically calculating, right at the start, just exactly how badly people are underestimating the timeline for building their Big Shiny New Thing.

      23 votes
    2. I wanna raise crickets for the sound

      I have Tinnitus and I love the sound of crickets. Recordings are nice but they don't hit nearly as well. I have a hearing aid which is nice but real crickets are much better. They hit a whole...

      I have Tinnitus and I love the sound of crickets. Recordings are nice but they don't hit nearly as well. I have a hearing aid which is nice but real crickets are much better. They hit a whole bunch of frequencies that provide me with great relaxation.

      Has anyone here raised crickets? I do not intend to eat them. Just hear some real crickets every night when I go to sleep. Perhaps on a small box near my bed.

      I live in a house with some space I can use. I"m in Northeast Brazil (Salvador, Bahia).

      According to Wikipedia this is the kind of climate here

      Salvador has a trade-wind tropical rainforest climate (Köppen: Af). Temperatures are relatively consistent, showing little variance throughout the course of the year. Salvador's driest months of the year are December and January, when the city receives on average less than 10 cm (4 in) of precipitation. Salvador's wettest months are April, May and June, when at least 20 cm (8 in) of rain falls during each of these three months.

      Too crazy or actually possible?

      You tell me!

      30 votes
    3. Session report: 496-Seed-18, in which two PCs eat nightshade

      The Party Jeff, half-elf Druid 6 / Fighter 4 / Magus 4 Lee, gray elf Fighter 4 / Magic-User 4 / Thief 5 Oryn, high elf Magic-User 5 / Thief 6 Rudy, halfling Druid 2 / Thief 3 Takeshi, human Ranger...

      The Party

      • Jeff, half-elf Druid 6 / Fighter 4 / Magus 4
      • Lee, gray elf Fighter 4 / Magic-User 4 / Thief 5
      • Oryn, high elf Magic-User 5 / Thief 6
      • Rudy, halfling Druid 2 / Thief 3
      • Takeshi, human Ranger 4
      • Varda, human Cleric 6 / Magic-User 4
      • Vordt, half-ogre Cleric 4 / Fighter 5

      Ran the group through some werewolf hunting the other day. Thanks to the local army scouts, they knew where the hideout was; a chapel on a hill in the badlands, about ten miles from town. The party arrives, takes a look in one of the side windows, climbs the bell tower for a vantage point around the thing, including the graveyard and mausoleum, and then pushes their way into the building.

      There's no light inside, but Takeshi has a broadsword with continual light on it, as well as a ring that increases the radius of light sources he commands, so the hall and sanctuary ahead are well lit through the 80' of luminescence in his hands. As they enter the sanctuary, three people materialize behind the altar, outlanders in appearance, claiming to be using this building as protection from the elements. Some players noted the lack of a "lived in" feeling here, no bedrolls or typical litter you'd expect of a temporary living space, and these people appeared well-fed and hale. Sensing that the party is about to lash out, the werewolves attack pre-emptively and gain surprise.

      (Round 1) Takeshi and Lee ended up targets between these three werewolves. Four more tried to ambush from behind, but Vordt was in the back filling up the hallway, blocking their way. Oryn casts amplify damage at one while Varda fires magic missile and Jeff fills the hallway with web as Takeshi and Lee retaliate in melee; Rudy provides missile support with their sling. (R2) Oryn and Varda wait for an an opportunity to capitalize on while Takeshi and Lee continue trading blows, with Rudy continuing to provide missile support and Jeff casting a magic missile; Vordt is 5' deep in the web begins to leverage his obscene Strength to break free of them. One werewolf lies dead. (R3) Varda continues waiting, confident in their allies' abilities as Oryn charges in, Rudy provides missile support, Jeff supplies another magic missile, Takeshi and Lee continue trading blows with the two remaining werewolves, and Vordt is working himself free of the webs. Three werewolves lie dead.

      Over the next couple of minutes, Vordt breaks free from the web. Not wanting to try and jump through windows, the party opts to wait for the spell to expire, as the remaining four werewolves trapped in it yell muffled requests for mercy. Their progress was much slower than Vordt's, and they had to go through 8' of web rather than 5', but after about an hour they'd all suffocated. During the wait, both Takeshi and Lee ate some belladonna to stave off potential infection.

      The party finds a trap door to a cellar and checks it out. There's a wight hiding in the shadows, but it doesn't surprise them. It still slaps Lee and eats about 5k XP off his thief levels, but it dies by the end of the first round. In exchange, they found an iron chest, within which was 21k gold, 13 gems, a scroll of protection from magic, dwarf-sized field plate +1, and a pouch of dust of dryness.

      Then Takeshi and Lee both vomit up their lunch and pass out on the floor. Lee is no longer breathing. Ingesting belladonna does a few things: (1) small chance of curing lycanthropy if taken quickly after infection, (2) incapacitates you for 1d4 days, (3) has a 1% chance of killing you. Lee is the 1%.

      They get both of their bodies and the treasure out and back to town, then broker a deal with the local lordling MU to get Lee poked with a rod of resurrection, which drops him from 20 to 19 Constitution, removing his natural regeneration. Takeshi remains incapacitated for a day and Lee for a week, due to resurrection sickness.

      9 votes
    4. Strange New Worlds: Season 3: Episodes 5,6, and 7 have been much better than previous episodes

      Warning: this post may contain spoilers

      No holodeck adventures, no hiding in space clouds, no musical dance numbers, no soap operas ( just a tiny bit ) and no less than subtle modeling of how people should behave.

      Stories that were actually interesting and that held your attention.

      Some of episode 5 was derivative from other Star Trek's and other sci-fi series, but it was done well.

      Episode 6 was engrossing and with a surprise ending. I like the slow buildup of King Arthur ( Kirk ) eventually pulling the sword out of the stone ( taking command of the Enterprise ).

      Episode 7. I knew people in college like Beto. I thought the actor did a great portraying such a person. I even found myself getting irritated though Star Fleet is fiction. I loved how Uhura handled him. She was kind, but she completely unmasked what he was behind his behavior.

      9 votes
    5. Fitness Weekly Discussion

      What have you been doing lately for your own fitness? Try out any new programs or exercises? Have any questions for others about your training? Want to vent about poor behavior in the gym? Started...

      What have you been doing lately for your own fitness? Try out any new programs or exercises? Have any questions for others about your training? Want to vent about poor behavior in the gym? Started a new diet or have a new recipe you want to share? Anything else health and wellness related?

      11 votes
    6. So was there no song of the summer this year?

      The concept of song of the summer is something I’ve only recently learned about but looking back I can definitely see how that concept influenced radio play when I was younger. Even as the radio...

      The concept of song of the summer is something I’ve only recently learned about but looking back I can definitely see how that concept influenced radio play when I was younger.

      Even as the radio started declining songs were still being deemed “song of the summer.”

      2024: Espresso - Sabrina Carpenter

      2023: Flowers - Miley Cyrus

      2022: As it Was - Harry Styles

      2021: Butter - BTS

      2020: Levitating - Dua Lipa

      There’s for sure secondary songs you can choose (Good Luck Babe by Chappelle Roan for 2024 and Watermelon Sugar by Harry Styles for 2020 as examples). But generally something broke out and became cultural moments.

      It appears that Alex Warren’s Ordinary and three Morgan Wallen’s songs topped the charts this summer. Not the pop infused dance music “song of the summer” is usually referring to. It did seem like people were looking at Just Keep Watching by Tate McRae or Fame is a Gun by Addison Rae but they never really took off. It seems like Manchild by Sabrina Carpenter was the highest charting pop song but did not reach the heights of Espresso last year.

      Looking at music subreddits people seem in agreement that the charts this year have been a mess, muted, with new music not breaking through. Also appears that Americans are leaning into country and/or Christian music.

      22 votes
    7. Looking for advice on setting up computer case fans

      I've never actually put in more fans than what a case comes with, but I have an unraid server that is running hot so I got a pack of 5 fans to put in it. From what I understand, you want them set...

      I've never actually put in more fans than what a case comes with, but I have an unraid server that is running hot so I got a pack of 5 fans to put in it.

      From what I understand, you want them set up so that there is a solid airflow throughout the case; ie I'm planning to set it up so that the front and bottom fans are intake and the top and back fans are exhaust, so that cool air enters from the front/bottom and exits out the back/top.

      However, one of the fans will be going on the side door. I'm assuming this wants to be intake as well (so that the airflow goes through the entire case, as I assume it would disrupt the airflow as exhaust). Or would it be better to not have one on the side and just have an extra fan laying about?

      This is how I plan to set it up (shout out to MS Paint): https://ibb.co/KcXx5cgW

      Note: The X's are because the installed chassis block being able to put fans there; the bottom one is especially disappointing as it's the HDDs that are mostly getting hot

      Just wanted to confirm that that set up looks good and that intake for the side one (where the ? is) is the proper choice

      10 votes
    8. When is the last time you made a new friend? That lasted.

      Ive been losing friends over the years from moving away, settling down with my partner, and just being terrible at staying in touch. And i've realized i haven't been making any new ones either. So...

      Ive been losing friends over the years from moving away, settling down with my partner, and just being terrible at staying in touch. And i've realized i haven't been making any new ones either. So my social circle is shrinking. I meet people, but the social connections haven't really lasted.

      I wonder how other folks are finding new friends that have been meaningful and lasted in adulthood.

      41 votes
    9. Offbeat Fridays – The thread where offbeat headlines become front page news

      Tildes is a very serious site, where we discuss very serious matters like delusions, experts and eyeo. Tags culled from the highest voted topics from the last seven days, if anyone was taking...

      Tildes is a very serious site, where we discuss very serious matters like delusions, experts and eyeo. Tags culled from the highest voted topics from the last seven days, if anyone was taking notes.

      But one of my favourite tags happens to be offbeat! Taking its original inspiration from Sir Nils Olav III, this thread is looking for any far-fetched offbeat stories lurking in the newspapers. It may not deserve its own post, but it deserves a wider audience!

      12 votes