Yes, Trump has a real chance of winning in 2024 and that would be dangerous for the world in many ways.

On the other hand Trump seems like the easiest candidate for the presumptive nominee President Biden to beat.

1. A lot of Americans are rightly scared shitless of Trump and will turn out to vote against him.
2. Trump is likely to try to dodge debates which benefits Biden, who has a stuttering problem and a gaffe problem.
3. Trump is elderly, like Biden so that somewhat neutralizes the age issue for Biden.

If Trump was removed from the election DeSantis might become the front runner or nominee

1. He is young, and the age issue would be on Biden again
2. He might have the debates Trump would have eschewed and do well in them
3. DeSantis would likely pick up Trump's base in that situation

The worst scenario with Trump being removed from the election would if someone other than DeSantis became the nominee

1. Again, the age issue would be a thing for Biden again
2. The unknown nominee could be a better debater than Biden
3. The unknown candidate would have neither Trump's nor DeSantis's baggage, causing more voters to stay home or swing voters picking him/her over Biden

Edit:

To clarify, I mean what would happen if Trump was kept entirely out of 2024 - no 3rd party runs, no vote splitting.

So in spite of the heat and a couple of 2 hour downpours, we had a great trip to Atlanta Georgia.

It started with some bad luck and a delay. We boarded the plane and were told after a few minutes to return to the terminal. The official word was that the plane was mechanically unsound to fly, no details given. I'm glad they figured it out before we took off lol. It took approximately 3 hours before a new plane was available and ready, but that actually seems like good flexibility to me. It could have been much worse.

I want to thank @eve, @stu2b50 and @oracle who encouraged me to see the aquarium. The sea life there was spectacular. The jellyfish and the live coral were beautiful and relaxing to watch. The balugas were funny. The hammerhead, the rays, the whale sharks and the sea turtles were all impressive. My regional aquarium in Monterey California has more science education incorporated into the exhibits, but the Atlanta collection is amazing to see. Also Atlanta has long steps that can be used as benches if you are tired or want to just sit and contemplate for a while. It was not cheap and there were a lot of people but I thoroughly enjoyed it.
A couple of highlights.
https://i.imgur.com/jdnyu6d.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/3lSY78s.jpg

We visited the Fernbank Museum of natural history. I have seen larger collections in other cities but I really appreciated a couple of things. One is that in the exhibit on culture, western european and anglosphere cultural artifacts were on display alongside artifacts from indigenous and nonwestern cultures that I am more used to see in museums. So a clerical collar was in the display case alongside religious regalia from around the world. High heeled shoes were in the same display case as foot binding shoes from China.

The other fun thing about the Fernbank was that we arrived early and got into the interactive exhibits before the kids arrived. So I got to use compressed air to launch a rocket. I got to turn a crank on a sand table and simulate an earthquake. I got to play with electricity in a controlled, safe way. https://i.imgur.com/AjLkRsb.jpg

The sight I had been planning to see from the moment I started planning this trip was the Carter Presidential library. I wanted to see the Carter Center also where they organize their humanitarian work but it isn't open to the public as far as I could tell. I had already read a biography of Carter, and what I learned about him on this trip did not seem surprising or noteworthy although still cool to learn. However I learned that his wife first lady Rosalynn Carter, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosalynn_Carter, made mental health her issue while in the White House and after. Thanks in large part to her political efforts, US health insurance companies were subjected to standards of 'parity' with regard to health care coverage of mental illness. Before this time, they were not required to cover mental health issues. I'm not saying they fully live up to what they should provide but it used to be worse and legal to just not offer coverage for mental health care.

There is a farmers market right by the presidential library, so that was fun. I bought a small pastry with peach filling, like a turnover, that was quite good.

The High museum happened to have a samurai exhibit which was large, diverse and interesting. It was a popular exhibit and I suspect it brought visitors to the museum who might not go just for the art. We saw some cool art and photography, but the samurai artifacts were the highlight for me. I took a lot of photos, but here are a couple.
https://i.imgur.com/lHeAnez.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/MvsjzB0.jpg

We also visited the Atlanta history center which is large and interesting. They currently have an exhibit on Emmett Till. Although I knew the basic story, seeing the film with interviews from family members and seeing the difference between the story as reported by mainstream (white) newspapers and as reported by black newspapers at the time was sad and educational. In the Jim Crow South, one wolf whistle at a white woman by a black teenage boy could be and was in this case punished with death. He was visiting from Chicago. He had been told the rules, but hadn't been raised with them and probably didn't even realize that he was being reckless. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmett_Till

One piece of Till's story I did not know was that his mother insisted on returning his body to Chicago and having an open casket funeral which was attended by a lot of people. This may have been one of the catalysts for the Civil Rights movement.

The other noteworthy thing we saw at the Atlanta History Center was the Cyclorama, a huge painting in the round, depicting the battle for Atlanta. If you are interested in military history, I recommend it. It vividly conveys the experience.

Re food, we found some excellent icecream at a shop off the Beltline called Jenni's, part of Krog st. Market. Also I ate the best biscuit of my life and was initiated into the grits breakfast experience at the Flying Biscuit. https://i.imgur.com/go9M5BW.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/RyVbDGF.jpg

The city itself is full of trees, which is pleasant. Aside from the heat, very good experience. Thanks again to everyone who gave advice.

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